AHC: No WWI, with a twist

Your challenge is to prevent the Great War - however, your POD must be after the assassination of Franz Ferdinand.
 
- Kaiser Wilhelm II does not tell the Austrians they will have Germany's full support.
- The Austrians do not make all of their demands to the Serbians, or accept Serbia's complying with everything except the last demand.
- The Germans do not follow with the Schlieffen Plan (the one that had Germany take on France before Russia mobilized) and only fight with Russia and Serbia, supporting Austria-Hungary.
 
The first two might do the trick, but the last will only change where the front line is. Once Germany declares on Russia there's not a whole lot that's going to keep the French out.
 
My contribution:

Willy II dies of a heart attack after hearing Austria is attacking. His aides mistake his retching, thhinking he's saying no attack.

I've always wanted to do a kill Bill II. Thanks for giving me an excuse.
 
During the crisis leading up to the war, there were calls for a conference to resolve the dispute.

If a war that isn't a world war is acceptable, John Keegan suggested in his book The First World War that the war could have been contained had Austria-Hungary acted alone, as it had every right to do.
 
Have Germany not invade Belgium and publicly declare it was doing so in response to British demands. This puts the UK in the position of defending France against the High Seas Fleet but not actively in the war unless attacked.
 
Tsar Nick, knowing his military isn't really ready for war (they're still modernising), does nothing after the AHs go into Serbia. This gets them some international sneering, but little else.
 
-France: No Check to Russia
-Russia: No Check to Serbia
-Serbia, comply the Austrian demands, exepct for the knee jerk demands
-Germany: Tell Austria to come down
-G.B. European Conference on the Crisis
 
As always with anything to do with the swing of things prior to the 'Guns of August' it's the Russian mobilization that is key. On the 29th of July Germany is asked (by Russia) to put some pressure on A-H which doesn't happen. By this stage Willy is receptive to some kind of defusing of the situation but by ignoring the Russian request it sets off Nicky ordering a partial mobilization. That sets off the 'red alert' button in Berlin and lights the fuse. Germany basically 'officially' orders Russia to pull back that order immediately the next day. If you could have both Nicky and Willy stand up to their military and public pressures to go to war and come to some kind of royal agreement (on the 30th mind you) trading a German public (or potentially private) yank back on the reigns with A-H while Russian quietly killing off or stopping the mobilization then I think you might turn the powder keg into more of a shouting match over prestige rather than the OTL explosion. That's a tough stretch as it would have been a huge blow to and for the Kaiser to back down at that point (especially in Germany obviously) and I think only a public announcement would have been enough to convince Nicky to rescind the orders of mobilization as most of us realize that was essentially trying to stop a coordinated train and would disrupt Russian ability to respond to Germany in large measure. I'm not sure that amount of trust could be established in such short of time, but from the Kaiser's letters and telegrams indicate he indeed would have been open to it. Unless Nicky was putting up simply a false front, I think those feelings were reciprocated. Not yet simply cogs in the machine of war, at this point they held powers to make the needed changes.

So in short ... a tradeoff of Russian mobilization for a German promises to reign in Austria. What that was in reality was train wrecking Russian military time tables for some weeks, and Germany privately telling Austria they didn't want nor would partake in war with Russia over Serbia and to get the best deal they could on their own. At this stage with such an agreement the German's might have been willing to offer private assurances on Belgium to Britain in exchange for their commitment to the peace talks London wanted. If Germany and Russian also committed to participating then France and Austria would have to follow suit. Again turning the fight from swords to pens.
 

altamiro

Banned
The major goal is to prevent German mobilization. It was designed (intentionally or out of foolishness) to be unstoppable, and once it is completed the avenues of attack are also predetermined.
 
The major goal is to prevent German mobilization.

As had been said before, easiest way to do this is to prevent the Russian mobilization. :D That might not be enough, I am aware. But not reacting to a Russian mobilisation (given the outfit and size of the Russian army, also a partial mobilisation) by lighting the fuse would have been highly irresponsible.

It was designed (intentionally or out of foolishness) to be unstoppable, and once it is completed the avenues of attack are also predetermined.

You mean rather like to the Austrian mobilisation which made little sense at all? That would be highly unprofessional.
 

altamiro

Banned
As had been said before, easiest way to do this is to prevent the Russian mobilization. :D That might not be enough, I am aware. But not reacting to a Russian mobilisation (given the outfit and size of the Russian army, also a partial mobilisation) by lighting the fuse would have been highly irresponsible.

As they say, Austria started a minor war, Russian mobilization turned it into a major war, and German mobilization turned it into a World War. Obviously the best would have been for Austria not to start a full scale war against Serbian, and the second best for Russia to not mobilize - or only partially. But this is so obvious as to not need a discussion.
The German mobilization plans were rigidly set up in such a way as to respond to one specific threat configuration. Even if said threat configuration was not present the plans did not allow any modification, at least Moltke and colleagues did not see a way to modify it quickly - although there were claims by various staff officers after the war to have been able to redirect the trains in real time.

You mean rather like to the Austrian mobilisation which made little sense at all? That would be highly unprofessional.

No, I mean rather like the French mobilization plans which were permitting a certain degree of flexibility in the response.
 
Would it be possible to get the the Germans not to offer their "blank cheque"?
That will not be enough. Recent research tends to conclude that A-H was going to war even without a German blank cheque. You might need an active German diplomacy to restrain A-H.

Kind regards,
G.
 

altamiro

Banned
That will not be enough. Recent research tends to conclude that A-H was going to war even without a German blank cheque. You might need an active German diplomacy to restrain A-H.

And for this you need a Wilhelm II actually knowing what he wants and sticking to it.
 
AH is definitely going to go after Serbia.

Russia is definitely going to support Serbia.

Germany wants to take down Russia, before its too late.

Very difficult to thread this needle.

How about: a hungarian nationalist assassinates the Romanian king, making Romania pro-Entente much earlier. Russia loudly proclaims shes only supporting he Othodox brethren, and announces the only campaign will be through Romania to protect Serbia, that other forces on AHs northern borders and Germanys eastern ones will be purely defensive, possibly even inviting neutral diplomats, eg US ones to view those preparations.

France announces loudly that shes mobilizing, but will only move if Russia is attacked.

GB calls for a peace conference, and Germany starts having second thoughts, and holds off on immediately declaring war on Russia. Maybe British diplomats point out to Germany that they are really serious about Belgium; but point out to the French that they have no interest in going to war unless France is attacked, which encourages slightly less sabrerattling on the part of the French.

If the fighting stays confined to the balkans, canwe keep it there?
 
Funny Thing is: the Serbs killed the One Guy in Vienna who would have been least excited about war against Serbia...
 
That PoD is probably too late. By this stage, even if the Serbian-Austrian conflict gets defused, SOMETHING is going to set off WWI. It might be a very different WWI, but it's still going to be a horrific conflict that will kill millions.

That's not to say the situation can't be diffused, only that another situation will arise to take its place, and then another. Eventually, ome minor (or not so minor) disagreement will blossom into the First World War.
 
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