WI The Columbian Expedition was a complete failure?

[Danbensen]

Maybe there will be less mismanagement, though, of the economy and of natural disasters because of the economic effects you've mentioned.

Here's an idea: without the economic and demographic collapse of the 1630s and 40s, you get a stronger Qing. There's still the Jurchen threat to the north (the "Great Jin"), and there's still the Little Ice age and the Shaanxi Earthquake, which convinces enough people that the Emperor has lost the Mandate of Heaven. There are rebellions, but the Qing crushes them, retakes the northern cities lost to the Jurchen, and in the mean time flushes out the wasteful and decadent bureaucracy that accreted around the Forbidden City in the early 1600s. By the end of the century, you have a newly revitalized Qing, with a fully quelled populace, a streamlined government, and veteran armies. By the time the Portuguese get to the Philipeans, the Qing are ready to leap on a new opportunity.

like, maybe let's have some French corsair initiate a huge slave uprising in Hispaniola or Cuba that leads to a large amount of ex-slaves escaping to the mainland.

Those ex-slaves to be armed by the Spanish to fight the Portuguese, and by the Portuguese to fight the Spanish. I like it! They could just establish their own state, but what if a local would-be Monteczuma hires these well-armed foreigners as an imperial guard?

With Spanish Florida and Cuba, I think its going to be hard for the Portuguese to do much in the Gulf of Mexico... to interact with the Aztecs they'll have to go through Panama or around South America. That might not happen until the 1540s or later.

So basically the Caribbean is so chaotic that /no one/ can reliably set up colonies in Central America? That will be nice for the natives inland, although I bet the people on the coasts will find themselves preyed upon by Portugal, Spain, and France as well. There should be some interesting communities growing up around ports to see to the needs of the pirates.

When does smallpox reach the Incas? Assuming that there /is/ a war of succession, Atahualpa wins it. Rather than being caught by Pizaro in Cajamarca in 1532, Atahualpa makes it back to Cuzco, where he cements his position. By the time the Portuguese impinge on his empire, Atahualpa might be an old man, or he might be dead, and a headstrong new successor will be in charge. I suggest the first option will result in at least initial peaceful trade, but the second might give us war. I suspect Atahualpa's successor will lose that war, but maybe a rump-state hangs on in the northern part of the empire (I'm assuming the Portuguese attack from the south).

Lutherans: I think there will still be grievances in Northern Europe against Southern, but without potatoes to give the North a decent population density, Berlin and London will be backwaters compared to Rome and Madrid. If there is a Reformation, it will fare badly indeed. Maybe Northerners better their chances by requesting the help of the Eastern Orthodox Christians. They won't get much help from distant Moscow, but the Patriarch of the Autonomous Millet of Greece convinces the Ottoman Sultan to make common cause with Middle Europe and Scandinavia. After all, they have open sailing routs to the Atlantic, and there's this lucrative new continent waiting out there...

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Any possibility that they could do something... interesting? Worthwhile? Or should we not waste our time on butterflies there?

The nearest province to Cabo Catoche besides Ekab is Chikinchel, but that's not really a real state either. It had a nominal capital at Chauaca, but was at war sometimes with other cities supposedly under its duristiction like Sinsimato and Ake. The next province over to the west of Chikinchel (which itself was west of Ekab) was Ah Kin Chel, which actually was a real state with a single ruler and all. Unfortunately the most detail about them I can find is a wikipedia page in Spanish that google did not do a good job of translating. Apparently the Chels who ruled the place were descended from the high priest of Mayapan and their capital was probably at Tecoh, though Izamal has also been suggested. But I don't know if the Chels allied with Tutul Xiu or Cocom or if they just stayed neutral in that big conflict. The other major coastal provinces with decent infrastructure and unity were Ah Canul and Chaktemal (aka Chetumal).

 

[Hnau]

Here's an idea: without the economic and demographic collapse of the 1630s and 40s, you get a stronger Qing.

Sounds good to me! I wonder how long Imperial China could last in this timeline...

Those ex-slaves to be armed by the Spanish to fight the Portuguese, and by the Portuguese to fight the Spanish. I like it! They could just establish their own state, but what if a local would-be Monteczuma hires these well-armed foreigners as an imperial guard?

Never happened in history before, but it would be a cool addition to the timeline. We'll have to see what native states will be around to accept the Maroons.

So basically the Caribbean is so chaotic that /no one/ can reliably set up colonies in Central America? That will be nice for the natives inland, although I bet the people on the coasts will find themselves preyed upon by Portugal, Spain, and France as well. There should be some interesting communities growing up around ports to see to the needs of the pirates.

It will probably be much more difficult, yes, though I do expect the Portuguese and Spanish to establish some colonies. It will be interesting if some of these large native states survive into the Golden Age of Piracy, as they could maybe fund their own privateers against the Europeans. Or, on the negative side of things, pirates could decide to try their luck where the conquistadors failed and invade the native states.

When does smallpox reach the Incas? Assuming that there /is/ a war of succession, Atahualpa wins it. Rather than being caught by Pizaro in Cajamarca in 1532, Atahualpa makes it back to Cuzco, where he cements his position.

Smallpox hits the Mayans in 1514, about six years earlier, so the Incas will probably be hit anywhere from 1519 to 1522. I expect Huayna Capac and Ninan Cuyochic to still perish, but Huascar will be six years younger and more inexperienced... the civil war will be much shorter and less devastating. Atahualpa will probably live a long time, but I expect his successor to be on the throne by the time the Portuguese come around. Yeah, it's going to be much more difficult for the Europeans to establish an advantage, as the Incas will have rebounded a bit more than IOTL from the Old World diseases and the Inca will be in the capital. Portuguese relations with the Tawantinsuyu will be much more comparable to their OTL relations with the Chinese and Japanese.

...but without potatoes to give the North a decent population density, Berlin and London will be backwaters compared to Rome and Madrid... They won't get much help from distant Moscow, but the Patriarch of the Autonomous Millet of Greece convinces the Ottoman Sultan to make common cause with Middle Europe and Scandinavia. After all, they have open sailing routs to the Atlantic, and there's this lucrative new continent waiting out there...

I think potatoes will still get to Europe even if Tawantinsuyu remains independent, but their spread could be delayed by a generation or even a century. They might not have an effect on European demographics until the modern era... as for an Ottoman alliance with the Reformation, yeah, that seems plausible. If the alt-Reformers are more backed into a corner, they would be encouraged to make common cause with the Ottomans.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Smallpox hits the Mayans in 1514, about six years earlier

Actually that's at most a year earlier than OTL. Smallpox hit the Maya at least in 1515.

 

[Codae]

Re: Religious developments in Europe: I think it would be interesting to keep Savonarola around longer. As I read it, his main problem was that he attracted the ire of Alexander VI, so if the Papacy is distracted by something bigger in 1495-8, Savonarola will probably have a longer reign and a stronger legacy. Throw in somea less ignominious death, and he could be counted as part of the avant garde of the alt-Reformation.

My question is: is TTL's French invasion of Milan enough of a distraction? Or would it be better to have Alexander VI die and be replaced with Pius III earlier? (I'm liking the "Rodrigo Borgia turns up dead in the Tiber instead of Giovanni Borgia" route.)

EDIT: Was the Duchy of Modena shifted eastward in 1520 to accomodate French (Milanese) expansion ITTL?

 

[Hnau]

Actually that's at most a year earlier than OTL. Smallpox hit the Maya at least in 1515.

No kidding? What was the vector there? I thought that smallpox was brought to Mesoamerica by the Narvaez expedition against Cortes.

My question is: is TTL's French invasion of Milan enough of a distraction? Or would it be better to have Alexander VI die and be replaced with Pius III earlier? (I'm liking the "Rodrigo Borgia turns up dead in the Tiber instead of Giovanni Borgia" route.)

The OTL First Italian War (1494-1498) in this timeline lasts three years longer ending only in 1501. So by 1497 ITTL the war was just ramping up while IOTL it was coming to an end. I think its fair to say that this would be a distraction to Alexander IV... however, I think having the Pope assassinated would be a bit more interesting for the timeline. I'm a bit ignorant of papal history... were any of the Popes in this time period assassinated? As to Savonarola, he seems like a very complex figure, I'd love to see what you would have him do with a few more years.

EDIT: Was the Duchy of Modena shifted eastward in 1520 to accomodate French (Milanese) expansion ITTL?

I have to admit that I am unaware of what Modena's participation was exactly in this part of the Italian Wars. After I post an update on colonial ventures in the Americas I'll handle the 1520s in Europe.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

No kidding? What was the vector there? I thought that smallpox was brought to Mesoamerica by the Narvaez expedition against Cortes.

That was the vector in Mexico proper apparently. Must not have spread far from the Maya in the first outbreaks, but it's possible that somebody on the shipwreck in 1511 was a carrier, and there were a bunch of exploratory expeditions between then and the arrival of Cortes as well.

 

[Hnau]

That was the vector in Mexico proper apparently. Must not have spread far from the Maya in the first outbreaks, but it's possible that somebody on the shipwreck in 1511 was a carrier, and there were a bunch of exploratory expeditions between then and the arrival of Cortes as well.

Hm...

The real question is, the smallpox epidemic that hit the Incas came originally from which vector? Or was it from both? If it came from the Mesoamerican outbreak of 1520, then the Incas will be hit by smallpox about five to six years earlier. If it came from the Mayan outbreak of presumably 1511, then the epidemic in the Andes could actually be delayed a few years. Any thoughts 9FH? And what do you think about Portuguese contact and trade with the eastern Mayan states?

 

[Codae]

The OTL First Italian War (1494-1498) in this timeline lasts three years longer ending only in 1501. So by 1497 ITTL the war was just ramping up while IOTL it was coming to an end. I think its fair to say that this would be a distraction to Alexander IV... however, I think having the Pope assassinated would be a bit more interesting for the timeline. I'm a bit ignorant of papal history... were any of the Popes in this time period assassinated? As to Savonarola, he seems like a very complex figure, I'd love to see what you would have him do with a few more years.

This would be a strange assassination. Given that we have no idea who killed Giovanni or why, the choices as timeline writers are "leave the ATL event a mystery" or "make a backstory up".

As for consequences, they could easily be limited to Pius III getting a few full years, to be succeeded by Julius II.

I have to admit that I am unaware of what Modena's participation was exactly in this part of the Italian Wars. After I post an update on colonial ventures in the Americas I'll handle the 1520s in Europe.

Based on my research, Modena was in personal union with Ferrara, so I'd expect its participation to be along the same lines... except Wikipedia doesn't list it as a belligerent. Strange.

By the way, here's something I just wrote up.

The Vain Campaign in Aquitaine

It is 1511. France is at war with the Papal States, and France is winning. Pope Julius II recognizes this, calling for allies; many are forthcoming, since many people hate the French. Among the members of this Holy League are Spain and England.

King Ferdinand II of Aragon is not particularly committed to fighting France for piety’s sake. He sees the war as a chance to expand his territory northward, hoping to swallow the small kingdom of Navarre. Having allied troops in the area is helpful to this end, as even if the foreign units do not aid him directly, they will still serve as a garrison and reduce the strain on his own kingdom’s resources [1]. It’s not as though Spain has spent the last twenty years exploiting a bunch of islands with a fantastic gold-to-resistance ratio, after all.

Twenty-year-old King Henry VIII of England – Ferdinand’s son-in-law – is eager for war, especially war in defense of Christianity (which this must be, or else why would the Pope be calling for it?). He has an ancestral claim to the territory of Aquitaine, which is right next to Spain. A cooperative venture seems obvious.

In June of 1512, an army-and-navy of twenty thousand well-equipped Englishmen arrives in northern Spain. Among them is King Henry [2].

Much disagreement ensues in the Spanish base at Fuenterrabía, whence Henry wishes to strike at the French city of Bayonne while Ferdinand would rather attack Navarre. The solution is hardly a solution: instead of a joint operation, the Holy League undertakes two separate ones, the Spanish attacking Navarre and the English attacking France. The former assault is successful [3].

Henry VIII, meanwhile, diverges from the Spanish force and invades France on his own. He brings an army of almost fourteen thousand men to Bayonne, but this is not enough to complete the siege of the city. Bayonne is relieved, in fact, by the French general Gaston de Foix [4], who with a greater supply of horses and a lesser supply of the Spanish disease [5] drives the English away from the city and back toward Spain. Henry evades capture or death, but cannot escape the mud, and the experience leaves a distinct negative impression on him.

Henry wastes little time in making peace with the French upon his return home, perhaps overly influenced by his personal experience. With England out of the war, King James IV of Scotland, who has been considering upholding the Auld Alliance by invading England [6], decides such an attack would be pointless and avoids it.

[1] Everything up to here is as OTL.
[2] IOTL, the English force was only eighteen thousand, and they were depending on the Spanish for horses and ordnance. Plus, Henry stayed home. ITTL, the English have lower expectations of Spanish logistics, and Henry’s more gung-ho about the venture.
[3] As OTL. IOTL, the English forces just sat around in the rain all summer until they decided to go home.
[4] Not yet reassigned to Italy due to Charles d’Amboise living a little longer. He’ll get there, though.
[5] Syphilis.
[6] IOTL, with Henry fighting in northern France in 1513, he did attack, leading to the disaster at Flodden Field. ITTL, James survives (though the option is still open for him to make the same mistake some other time).

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Honestly I don't know a whole lot about disease and how it spreads. As for your other question, here's a map of the Yucatan on the eve of Spanish contact. It's not the best in detail, but it gives you a good idea of provinces and states in the peninsula proper, although lacking on Guatemala. This is a more detailed map that shows geographical features and a hell of a lot of sites, but lacks some Postclassic towns and any markings of borders and a large proportion if not the majority of shown ruins are from the Classic era and not inhabited at the time in question.

In any case, if the Portuguese came in from the east that leads them to not very much besides Chetumal/Chaktemal. Assuming you haven't butterflied the shipwreck in 1511 of a caravel headed for Santo Domingo IIRC, then Gonzalo Guerrero and Geronimo Aguilar ended up in this area. Guerrero actually ended up as Chaktemal's war leader and married the lord's daughter, as cliched and Dances-With-Wolves-y as that sounds. But you've probably butterflied that. In any case, I don't know with who Chaktemal was aligned, and Uaymil and Ekab were hardly states at all, though Bakhalal in Uaymil and Chetumal were major ports. The real big shots were the Tutul Xiu and Cocom families, ruling from Mani and Sotuta respectively. Most other states as far as I'm aware took sides in the conflict, though the Ah Canuls I think stood out as independents. Cochuah and Cupul were in the east though, and both sided with the Cocoms of Sotuta. However Calotmul up in the northeast there might've been directly owned by the Tutul Xius.

So if the Portuguese sail straight down the eastern coast of Yucatan, they'd start at Ekab (or El Gran Cairo as the Spanish called it), eventually pass the port of Pole as they sail by the island of Cozumel (which rather than being a state was a place of many temples where pilgrimages were made), and they'd have to be careful because the seas between Pole and Cozumel are quite rough. I've experienced them myself (on a hydrofoil no less) and if I weren't such a rugged, manly and steady sea-crafty fellow I might've join the long bathroom line for vomiting people. The Spanish had no such line, instead they had people falling overboard and drowning apparently. After they pass through there they'd hit the major port of Zama, which is now called Tulum, and was so large and impressive the Spanish compared it to Seville. Further south they'd reach the province of Uaymil, and in a bay at the southern end of that province would be the port/trading hub of Bakhalal, and shortly afterward the similar large city of the same role Chaktemal, in the province of the same name. There isn't much on the east coast further than that until you hit Honduras, where'd they find a couple of small trading ports/posts. So if the Portuguese wanted to establish trade with the eastern Yucatan, they have the luck of running into five important and decently large at least ports along the coast, compared to the west coast which has smaller coastal cities and fewer of them, and whose people were pretty much immediately hostile to the Spanish. And if the Portuguese want to continue further inland, they have a chance of negotiating with the Cocoms and their allies. The Cocom family had ruled Mayapan until it fell in 1441, Mayapan having ruled most of the Yucatan proper until then. It was a Tutul Xiu-led revolt that brought them down and killed most of the ruling family. Thus the long bitter feud was started. IOTL the Cocoms were also seen as a sort of pillar of resistance against the Spanish, in that they led the call to arms to drive them out much of the time, compared to the Xius who colluded with the foreign interlopers. If the Portuguese ally with the Cocoms, they will suddenly gain quite a bit of influence in the region, giving them a good position, though they'd have to be careful to respect them and not treat them like a bunch of inferior vassals or tools or something.

 

[kasumigenx]

The Philippines will probably be Portuguese, since Magellan will be sailing for his homeland (in 1521 instead of 1519), but I can't be positive. I expect its future to largely depend on the development of Mexico. Mexican history is going to be much more complicated because there won't be any kind of quick Cortesian conquest.

Northern Philippines was a Bruneian fief/territory/Sphere of Influence, I think they will be more prepared against the Portuguese seeing that the Portuguese occupied Malacca, it was not just because Magellan discovered it but the Spanish made the Bolkiahs hate each other but I think they can get Central Philippines and get parts of Mindanao at that time and there is a possibility of the Sultanate of Maguindanao not forming, I think that the Aztecs and Incas will be a vassal of Portugal rather than being annexed.

 

[Codae]

By the way, I think it's still more likely than not that the Habsburgs stay out of Spain. Basically, there are four possible deaths to avert to that end, and if we're rerolling the dice one of those aversions should probably happen at least:

1) John, Prince of Asturias (if he has issue)
2) John's stillborn posthumous daughter
3) Isabella, Queen of Portugal (if she has further issue)
4) Miguel da Paz

The causes of death were, respectively, maybe tuberculosis, unclear, childbirth, and unclear. I'd think Miguel's death might be the easiest to avert on its own, but that's been done (although, on closer inspection, that timeline also uses 3).

Actually, they've all been done (if that means "proposed as a POD at least once"):
1) https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=90802
2) https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=112188
3) https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=117902
4) https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=195265

 

[Hnau]

@Codae and The Vain Campaign in Aquitaine

Really great work, I appreciate your creation of some particularly interesting butterflies in our alternate Italian Wars! It seems the main change from this sequence of events is that King James IV of Scotland survives, King Henry VIII of England might have a much different reign due to very different experiences, and no Battle of Flodden Field means up to 17,000 Scots survive. This could change a lot in the British Isles. We need more people to explore these butterflies!

As for non-Hapsburg Spain... yeah, let's choose one of those options and go for it. I have little idea what it might mean in the longterm, but let the divergences multiply! As for the assassination of Pope Alexander IV, we could indeed just leave it a mystery. Mystery deaths have happened throughout history. I don't want to jump the shark on the timeline though by adding one too many black swans (which happens in far too many collaborative TLs)... what do you think? Does it go too far?

@9 Fanged Hummingbird

Excellent analysis, 9FH. Based on what you've said, I think the Portuguese will quickly establish relations with the leadership of these large trading ports and seek to sell their products. Steel implements, mirrors, beads, manufactured goods, sugar, slaves... I imagine that the Mayans will pay top dollar for such products, and the Portuguese will be shipping home significant profits: gold, silver, and slaves. They'll also probably want to build a fort somewhere, a trading post of their own, and send out Christian missionaries. This is a classic recipe for trouble.

Trouble which they can avoid if they feel that the Spanish are also vying for control in the Peninsula, which I feel could start as soon as the late 1520s. Instead of being tempted by outright conquests of Mayan cities to take all the gold and slaves they want, they would be motivated to establish alliances and eventually vassals as a bulwark against the Spanish. The Mayans could play each side off each other to their benefit, which means they would remain independent though perhaps increasingly influenced by Europe (Christianized?). The Cocom family looks like a valuable network for the Portuguese to align with for their own purposes... by the time they set up such an alliance, they the Portuguese could very well start selling them weapons. Good Portuguese foreign policy from this point forward would be to build up a united state that could take the entirety of the Yucatan and expel the Spanish.

The Spanish, responding to the Portuguese, might align themselves with the Tutul Xiu and sell them weapons. The Spanish would be a little more aggressive in missionary efforts and depending on what happens in Mexico might be able to better support them militarily than the Portuguese, but we'll see what happens.

So, 9FH, I have said that there are two survivors ITTL's 1514 shipwreck off the coast of Ekab. They are most certainly not Aguilar or Guerrero, so anyone can take creative license with them. Do you have any fun ideas on what they could do in the Yucatan? Otherwise I'll have them both follow the path of Gonzalo Guerrero and become integrated in Mayan society.

@kasumigenx

You make some good points. Heck, it may be that the Portuguese won't need to take the Philippines because they already have some excellent bases in the region. The Philippines could remain independent for a while longer or be partially annexed by the Spanish or something else.

 

[Danbensen]

The Mayans could play each side off each other to their benefit, which means they would remain independent though perhaps increasingly influenced by Europe (Christianized?).

I remember reading something (possibly BS) that the Mexicah adopted Christianity readily because the concept of divine sacrifice was familiar to them. (looking for citations and all I can come up with is http://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/the_americas/v057/57.4keen.html).

Anyway, if the Nahuatl-speaking peoples adopted Christianity quickly because it meshed with their view of the cosmos (and not because they were trying to ingratiate themselves with their conquerors), then perhaps the Mayan people would also adopted Christianity quickly, without having to be conquered first.

The Philippines could remain independent for a while longer or be partially annexed by the Spanish or something else.

Perhaps we get Muslim Philippines.

 

[lokaloki]

Instead of the Treaty of Tordesillas the 1481 Aeterni regis, a previous papal bull, is re-interpreted to mean that in practice the Portuguese have a right to territorial acquisitions in all non-Christian lands to the south of the Canary Islands.

If Spain started to colonize Cuba, Portugal, probably, protested.
In 1493, when Columb returned and "broke Aeterni regis", because Cuba is to the south of the Canary Islands, Portugal was ready to war against Spain. Both sides went to the Pope and Alexander VI set a new border - it was Treaty of Tordesillas.
ITTL it will be a different Pope, a different Portugal and a different Spain.
Which is the year of the "breaking of Aeterni regis"?

There will be much less Spanish gold going over the Atlantic. I wonder if this will push the French to focus on brazilwood? You know, I was thinking... with the Portuguese so overstretched in this timeline (trying to manage all of the Americas south of Florida as well as their colonies in Africa and the East Indies), the French would probably have a better chance of success with their France Antarctique colony.

If I understand correctly, the Portuguese discovered a pearl. And the French to focus on it too. So, French colonies (or bases of pirates) may appear on the Antilles, not in Antactique.
Moreover, Spanich pirates can sail for a pearl too. IOTL was some notes from Portugal to Spain about pirates.

I didn't realize that the Spanish had been profiting so much from New World gold, and so early. What kind of butterflies could we expect in Spain without it?

As far as I know, until 1530s not too much money come from America.

In 1520s it was about 30-50 millions maravedi per year, in 1530s - it was about 300 millions per year (Peru is discovered), in 1550s - it was about 800-900 millions (silver mints are discovered).

The expedition of Columb cost about 1 million maravedi.
The budget of Spain in 1504 was about 320 millions maravedi plus the debt was about 130 millions.
The budget of Spain in 1554 was about 750 millions maravedi.
I'm not sure about exact numbers.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

@9 Fanged Hummingbird

Excellent analysis, 9FH. Based on what you've said, I think the Portuguese will quickly establish relations with the leadership of these large trading ports and seek to sell their products. Steel implements, mirrors, beads, manufactured goods, sugar, slaves... I imagine that the Mayans will pay top dollar for such products, and the Portuguese will be shipping home significant profits: gold, silver, and slaves. They'll also probably want to build a fort somewhere, a trading post of their own, and send out Christian missionaries. This is a classic recipe for trouble.

Trouble which they can avoid if they feel that the Spanish are also vying for control in the Peninsula, which I feel could start as soon as the late 1520s. Instead of being tempted by outright conquests of Mayan cities to take all the gold and slaves they want, they would be motivated to establish alliances and eventually vassals as a bulwark against the Spanish. The Mayans could play each side off each other to their benefit, which means they would remain independent though perhaps increasingly influenced by Europe (Christianized?). The Cocom family looks like a valuable network for the Portuguese to align with for their own purposes... by the time they set up such an alliance, they the Portuguese could very well start selling them weapons. Good Portuguese foreign policy from this point forward would be to build up a united state that could take the entirety of the Yucatan and expel the Spanish.

The Spanish, responding to the Portuguese, might align themselves with the Tutul Xiu and sell them weapons. The Spanish would be a little more aggressive in missionary efforts and depending on what happens in Mexico might be able to better support them militarily than the Portuguese, but we'll see what happens.

So, 9FH, I have said that there are two survivors ITTL's 1514 shipwreck off the coast of Ekab. They are most certainly not Aguilar or Guerrero, so anyone can take creative license with them. Do you have any fun ideas on what they could do in the Yucatan? Otherwise I'll have them both follow the path of Gonzalo Guerrero and become integrated in Mayan society.

And the Tutul Xius allying with the Spanish might bring lots of trouble upon themselves as it did IOTL. In 1536 a party of Xiu nobles decided to make a pilgrimage to Chichen Itza, and on the way they had to pass through Cocom territory. Given the nature of their journey, the Cocoms invited to stay and rest at a town called Otzmal, where they had a banquet and entertained their Xiu guests, right up until they sprung a trap and slaughtered all the pilgrims. According to the Xiu this was done because the Cocoms did not like the fact they were siding with the Spanish. So it's easily possible that a similar event happens ITTL.

Since this is pretty much fiction for all intents and purposes almost anything can happen to these two shipwrecked Portuguese. But I do feel like pointing out that the two Spaniards did not have an easy time of it, not even Gonzalo Guerrero. Both of them started out as slaves, and Guerrero allegedly got his chance to rise in society after he saved his master from an alligator after he had fallen into a river while hunting. And presumably from that point he was allowed to show off his skills as a soldier to get a much better job and respect in society, being lucky that Mesoamericans especially at that time were generally big on social mobility. The other survivor Geronimo de Aguilar did not rise in society at all, given that as a priest he had no appreciable skills and doesn't seem to have made any effort to integrate into society besides learning the language. And I like to imagine that he probably annoyed everyone else with his missionary ravings. So yeah, there's a lot could happen with these guys here.

I remember reading something (possibly BS) that the Mexicah adopted Christianity readily because the concept of divine sacrifice was familiar to them. (looking for citations and all I can come up with is http://muse.jhu.edu/login?auth=0&type=summary&url=/journals/the_americas/v057/57.4keen.html).

Anyway, if the Nahuatl-speaking peoples adopted Christianity quickly because it meshed with their view of the cosmos (and not because they were trying to ingratiate themselves with their conquerors), then perhaps the Mayan people would also adopted Christianity quickly, without having to be conquered first.

The Nahua peoples adopted Christianity readily at first because they didn't comprehend fully what conversion meant. It was natural for them to add foreign gods to their pantheon, no reason for them not to believe they were real. But the idea that they'd have to worship this one exclusively and ignore all others to the utmost degree was rather alien to them. So it's not incredibly likely that either the Mexica or the Maya would fully adapt Christianity soon given that it'd mean forsaking their ancestors and denying them sustenance and devotion in the afterlife. And risk seriously pissing off the natural world as well. I should probably also point out that many Mesoamericans never fully adopted Christianity to this day and the ones who have are in some places somewhat recent converts, like in the 1800's.

 

[Codae]

Here's an interesting butterfly from a continued Trastámara Spain:

In 1506, Philip the Handsome and Joanna the Mad traveled between their possessions in Burgundy and Castile. Their ship was blown off course, and they wound up in England as unwilling guests of Henry VII, who took full advantage of the opportunity to exact diplomatic concessions from them. Besides obtaining an immensely favorable trade deal with Burgundy, Henry also secured the extradition of this guy, whose older brother had been named heir to Richard III. (Edmund was eventually executed by Henry VIII.) ITTL, though, no Habsburg Spain means that the reason for this voyage is nonexistent, meaning that Edmund de la Pole can remain at large.

 

[The Kiat]

Meanwhile John Cabot has returned to England with his discovery of North America...

Cabotia sounds too much like Cambodia; it'll confuse people.

 

[Codae]

And now, an overly detailed timeline of the First Swabian War! (Coming soon: the Landshut succession.)

February 20, 1499: The Battle of Hard takes place. An Austrian army, ten thousand strong, in the area as part of operations against the Three Leagues of the Grisons and their Swiss allies, encounters a smaller Swiss army heading north toward Lake Constance. They clash in an unexpectedly bloody battle, in which the Austrian artillery proves decisive [1]. The Swiss scatter, an auspicious beginning to large-scale engagements for Maximilian von Habsburg and his Swabian allies, but the victorious army is too battered to pursue.

March 11, 1499: Austrians raid the Rheintal.

March 16, 1499: The Battle of Wolfhalden takes place. The Austrian army south of Lake Constance is defeated by a new Swiss army.

March 22, 1499: Swabians raid Dornach, in western Switzerland. They encounter a Swiss force that evening, but easily make a tactical withdrawal [2].

April 2, 1499: The Swiss are repelled from the Swabian town of Hallau.

April 13, 1499: Swabians raid Bülach, ten miles short of Zürich, but suffer a devastating defeat at Hochfelden.

April 16, 1499: Austrians take Appenzell, but, wary of being trapped therein, withdraw the next day.

April 20, 1499: The Battle of Lienz takes place. An Austrian army and a Swiss one do battle on a mile-wide plain bounded by mountains and the Rhine, and the Swiss, despite being greatly outnumbered, are victorious. Many Austrians are killed on the battlefield, and many drown in the river.

May 6, 1499: Charles VIII of France decides that he would rather have the Swiss fighting the Spanish than the Austrians. He offers to mediate a peace accord, but is rebuffed.

May 13, 1499: A Swabian offensive secures the area around Constance, where Maximilian establishes a base of operations.

May 24, 1499: The Swiss raid the Klettgau, west of Constance.

May 29, 1499: Maximilian leads [3] a raid on Müllheim.

June 2, 1499: Finally persuaded by the French, Swiss delegates send word to Maximilian that they are ready to discuss terms.

June 7, 1499: Forces of the Three Leagues successfully assault Austrian positions in the east. Maximilian meets with Swiss, French, and Swabian delegates in Basel.

July 23, 1499: The Peace of Basel is signed, following weeks and weeks of a mostly deteriorating Imperial position. It is essentially the same as OTL’s, recognizing the de facto independence of the Swiss confederation, except that the Reichskammergericht retains authority and Maximilian keeps the right of high justice in the Thurgau.

[1] IOTL, this was a Swiss victory. ITTL, the Swiss are at this point participating in the extended First Italian War, so they have fewer troops on hand.
[2] IOTL, this army was defeated at Bruderholz, but the less numerous Swiss are less able and willing to force a battle ITTL.
[3] The sort of leading that isn’t likely to get you killed.

 

[Codae]

Death of a Bishop, or, Butterflies on the Danube

On April 7, 1498, Rupert of the Palatinate, Prince-Bishop of Freising, had a very bad day.

To be fair, most of the day wasn’t that bad. It’s just that what good events occurred were pretty well overshadowed by the fact that April 7 was the day Rupert struck his head on a door lintel and DIED [1].

The effect this had on Bavarian history was largely unappreciated.

Five years later, George the Rich, Duke of Bavaria-Landshut, died, which raised a thorny political question. George had ruled half of Bavaria, but had no living son—ample opportunity for dispute even without counting George’s actions.

Based on the Salic Law practiced in Germany, not no mention Wittelsbach family agreement, George’s land could be passed only along the male line; consequently, the rightful heir was George’s third cousin Albert IV, Duke of Bavaria-Munich. Nevertheless, George willed his half-duchy to his daughter Elizabeth and her husband, Philip of Baden [2].

War was the inevitable result. Bavaria-Munich was an obvious participant. So was Baden, under the rule of Philip’s father Christopher, eager to expand his family’s influence. Baden, however, was under threat by the County Palatine of the Rhine, its northern neighbor and another Wittelsbach possession. Count Palatine Philip was unwilling to see territory pass out of his house’s hands, and his own state maintained a separate rivalry with Baden.

Christopher recognized the forces arrayed against him and his small margraviate, and had devoted much effort over the previous four years to securing allies for such a war. One state on whose support he could count was the Archbishopric of Trier, where his older son Jacob had just succeeded his great-uncle John. Christopher also worked to secure support from the rest of the Swabian League, a Habsburg-led alliance including most of southern Germany.

The so-called Second Swabian War was therefore a significant conflict. Fighting began soon after George’s death in December 1503, and continued for more than two years, causing destruction across much of Bavaria. Peace was not established until the Munichian surrender in 1506 and the Treaty of Ulm; under its terms, Albert IV and Philip, Count Palatine, forfeited their claims to Bavaria-Landshut as long as Philip of Baden and Elizabeth’s line endured [3].

While Philip and Elizabeth received the bulk of Bavaria-Landshut, they owed much to Austria and the Swabian League, for whom the victorious war had been an excellent unifier. Thus a small but economically important region of Bavaria was transferred to the Habsburg County of Tyrol [4]. Kufstein and Kitzbühel had been Maximilian’s main war aim, but the solidification of the Swabian League as not merely a Habsburg-dominated sphere, but a coalition in which the Habsburgs exercised benevolent leadership.

[1] In accordance with the Law of Conservation of Door-Lintel Striking; cf. Charles VIII of France.

[2] IOTL, Elizabeth married Rupert, who, like her and Albert IV, was a Wittelsbach, though more distantly related.

[3] IOTL, Elizabeth died during the war, and her sons received a small piece (“Palatinate-Neuburg”) of Bavaria-Landshut as a consolation prize, with most of the rest going to Albert IV.

[4] This happened in OTL as well, when Maximilian was a neutral arbiter rather than a victor.