Is this just ASB, or possible? What might bring this on in the late 20th or early 21st century? How many countries could the PRC split into?
In the end, though, the centripetal forces have always proved stronger, and no matter how often China broke up, it eventually came back together.
Whether it's ASB or not, I don't know. I can only imagine a few areas taking advantage of a balkanization. Xinjiang, which has a large population of ethnic groups. Tibet and Taiwan, of course. Perhaps some territory bordering Mongolia, but that's about it.
IIRC, 90 percent of the Chinese are the same ethnic group, the Han. There aren't the religious differences, or the strong nationalisms since China is a very, very old country that would naturally lead to Balkanization. There are linguistic differences, but since everyone can read Chinese pictographs, printed communication isn't a problem.
This inspires a new AH question....
{*tinheart*}
How about: Xinjiang into Uyghuristan, Independent Tibet, Kashmir with a large part of China, Manchuria, Taiwan, a larger Hong Kong, a larger Macau, North Han China and South Han China? Ten nations.
It's... possible. Let's say China starts industrializing / improving itself / getting cooler in the early 20th century, it lands itself on a track towards power and repelling imperialists and catching up with Japan... however, this also brings to head many factions who wish to determine the future of China, factions which begin to embrace nationalist and ideological causes, and when wars begin to break out, they take different sides... a dictator takes power, and China begins to follow the way of Yugoslavia.
China breaking apart semi-permanently would be a disaster. They were incredibly important in curbing imperialist intentions of Russia, Japan, and the Europeans. Smaller nations might just get eaten into an Asia-wide USSR
Is "Northern Chinese vs. Southern Chinese" a possibility?
Yes cause Northerners refer to Southerners as "manzi" which is equal to "hicks" in English.
To quote Romance of the Three Kingdoms
"The Empire long united, must divide. Long divided must unite."
So we'll probably see a Balkanised China in about oh... 50 years.
Where do you come by this curious mathematics? Really, I want to know. Even assuming that a quote from a novel is relevant at all to modern geopolitics (EUROPE was long divided too.. are you predicting that Germany will fall apart into little statelets at some point? World-historical conditions change), China, as Max had pointed out, already underwent is period of division... and taking early modern history of China, that was more than enough for a couple centuries of a single dynasty.
In other words, not only is this a faulty analogy, the whole basis of the analogy itself doesn't even hold.
I don't about that. Look how fast the Jin collapsed after the Three Kingdoms period.
That was more than 1600 years ago. I said 'and taking early modern history of China, that was more than enough for a couple centuries of a single dynasty.' So your answer is irrelevant.
Considering the frequency of Chinese collapase into civil war and the repeating factors in those civil wars that are still felt today (a rural population against the government, a reactionary government and divided political sentiment among others) it isn't entirely unreasonable to assume that China may collapse into Civil War in the future. Though I withdraw the 50 years comment.