No Classic Mesoamerican Collapse

[Falecius]

What 9FH and others here are implying is that any combination of circumstances other than what happened in OTL in regards to the Aztec and Incan conquests would likely have been a better outcome for the people of those regions than what they got historically. Cortes dying, his expedition being cut to ribbons, and the Spanish deciding maybe they should just stick to trade and missionaries for a couple of decades probably in the long run is going to turn out better for the natives of Central Mexico than what wound up to them historically-Cortes dumb-lucking his way through an entire Empire and conquering a region twice the size of the country of his birth with a thousand men. Rinse and repeat with the Incans and Pizzaro. It's not difficult to get a different result than OTL with these events, and what 9FH is proposing is a pretty complicated series of divergences.

Of course, you can still imagine a WORSE outcome for the Mesomericans in the given scenario. Frex, what if the averted collapse happens because of overpopulation and soil consumption and horrible bad luck just when Cortes is landing and smallpox is spreading through an already-starving population?
It's still a complicated series of divergences (like OTL after all) but I think its not very likely. It sounds less likely than OTL. But it is possible.

 

[nlspeed]

Yep.

But that's less likely than what 9 Fanged Hummingbird proposed.

Cortés' expedition was ASB. And because of that, the other Conquistadors followed. As 9 Fanged Hummingbird repeatedly said Velasquez wanted to establish trade with Mesoamerica. Charles II (or whoever was king of Spain at that time) also didn't like Cortés and his rebellious behaviour, until Cortés forced himself upon Charles and told him that he 'gave him (Charles) more provinces than he had inherited'.

Cortés' expedition was almost doomed to fail, and nobody really supported him anyway. So when (not if ) his expedition fails, (almost) nobody will launch another expedition.

That's the likeliest result. Only, it isn't how it went in our timeline.

My point is; of course, literally every scenario can be worse or better. But in all likeliness, what 9 Fanged Hummingbird proposed, will be better for the Mesoamericans.

 

[Hnau]

Disease will most certainly be the largest advantage of the Europeans. Even without Spanish conquest the Aztecs and Incas will be destabilized for decades if not centuries because of apocalyptic die-offs from Old World disease. And, eventually some power is likely to use that to their advantage, perhaps most effectively once they've industrialized.

 

[jkay]

But, Cortes was already banned from activity when he set out; so what difference would an additional ban make? Real people are, of course, sadly evil and contrary and corrupt. Especially evil. Did I mention evil yet? Oh, and I forgot opportunism over disease-caused weakness.

The same thing happened up North, where surely British settlers were sent without the idea that they would set their goverment regularly at war against natives to conquer them and steal their land. But that's what happened, time after after time; of course, we kept going even after independence until there was no more turf to steal, but just the shining sea.

I think you have a generous heart, and I agree all would be better off without the contact. But the world's a nasty place. How many did Hitler torture and kill? There can be no counting of the women raped in war and raids.

And, I repeat, aside from that one thing, I think your TL's plausible and hope you will continue; I'm enjoying it.

 

[Simreeve]

Spaniard could mount larger expeditions from Cuba in 1550 than Cortes', but the Mesoamericans would be ready by then I guess, so why bother.

"Deus vult!"

 

[NothingNow]

But, Cortes was already banned from activity when he set out; so what difference would an additional ban make? Real people are, of course, sadly evil and contrary and corrupt. Especially evil. Did I mention evil yet? Oh, and I forgot opportunism over disease-caused weakness.

Yeah, but if every attempt at Filibustering in the period leads to the majority of the expedition in chains or dying horribly, People are less likely to do something, and in Mesoamerica and the Andes, the effects of Disease weren't as bad as elsewhere in the new world, where we know Civilization just fucking collapsed.

Larger, more unified states would be a hell of a lot less vulnerable, too. Remember, Cortez and Pizarro in both cases managed to set off a fairly large civil war, piss off everyone, not die, and somehow end up on top, when a very large proportion of the members of their Expeditions died.

Hell, my Latin American History professor openly stated in a lecture that he has no idea how Cortez managed to survive La Noche Triste, and that was like his fourth or fifth close call.

Just look at the conquest of the Mayans, and the more hard headed Andean cities, both of which swallowed tercios whole, and then The Yucatan still had running insurrections consistently throughout the lifetime of the Empire, most notably under Jacinto Canek and then, in the 1840s, there was The Caste War.

 

[Hnau]

Some more points I'd like to add to the conversation:

- If the Maya have a much higher population, and are establishing colonies as far south as Panama, might they start colonies also in nearby Cuba? How far will Mayan traders go? Could they reach Florida? Colombia? How many cultures will be affected? I'm thinking mainly of the Taino... they are pretty close to the Mayans and could pick up a couple things after centuries of contact. That would change the progress of Spanish colonization right from the get-go.

- If there is some kind of butterfly net surrounding Mesoamerica and Spanish colonization follows as OTL in the Antilles, it's only going to take until 1501 with Rodrigo de Bastidas or 1502 with Christopher Columbus for the Spanish to start poking around Panama. They should run into some Mayan colonists which would pique interest in the mainland thereafter.

- What will population figures be like in the Valley of Mexico? Without the collapse and with the introduction of the potato, population is going to be booming. However, this was already one of the most heavily populated areas of the world when Cortes entered the valley... could it really be even more densely populated? Even though I think Mesoamerica could reach a population max of 60 million instead of 24 million with the potato, guinea pig and quinoa... that's just a lot of people to put in one place. I would think a lot of that population is going to be diverted into other highland cities that were in OTL much smaller.

Still, what's interesting is that Teotihuacan will no doubt have a vested interest in being the biggest city on Lake Mexico. It only reached 125,000 in OTL at its height. Tenochtitlan reached 215,000. If Tenochtitlan is founded several centuries early, its going to hit that figure pretty quickly, which would be bad news for Teotihuacan. I'd imagine that some laws and statutes will be introduced to keep Tenochtitlan from developing so extensively, limiting their population to at most half of Teotihuacan's. That extra population could be diverted to Teotihuacan instead.

My recommendation is to have 1.5 million people in the Valley of Mexico instead of 1 million. Teotihuacan would have 250,000 of that, double their OTL height. Tenochtitlan would have 125,000. Texcoco would have 100,000 instead of 24,000. Tlacopan, Chalco, Xochimilco, Otampan and the others would also be much larger. As such it would be much harder to lay siege to this area if more of the population was diverted to the shoreline of Lake Mexico than the island of Tenochtitlan... in fact, it could be nigh impossible to starve out the populace... you couldn't bottle them up on the lake, you'd have to take all of the mountain passes instead! The city would be more dependent on the potato crop coming from the western highlands and around the valley than on gulf coast crops and fish, so if the Spanish take the coastline the Mesoamericans wouldn't be as impacted as in OTL. Quick Spanish conquest would be that much harder to achieve.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

Hmm, maybe colonies in Panama is a bit too drastic though, or at least using too grandiose a term when trade posts at best are more likely. Large settlement if consistent might extend into Nicaragua though, but I don't see people flocking to migrate to a sparsely settled rainforest populated only by people they'd consider barbarians, so settlement wouldn't all too rapid so Nicaragua is like to be the frontier for decently sized settlements, with trade posts in Panama for dealing with local tribes and to use as rest stops perhaps on the way to the Peruvian coast. As for Cuba, this is a more complicated question. OTL shows they did have the capability to go decent enough distances out into sea so getting to Cuba isn't implausible, but long-term settlement? Not sure if it's as likely, it'd still take some effort to get supplies and people back and forth from the mainland to Cuba and all without sails or large ships. But even trade posts there and in Panama would probably change a lot, make things very hard to predict, to be sure, though meeting with natives the Europeans would consider civilized far earlier might change Spanish attitudes or at least make it easier for the Spanish authorities to do what they wanted in the first place and negotiate with them.

 

[NothingNow]

As for Cuba, this is a more complicated question. OTL shows they did have the capability to go decent enough distances out into sea so getting to Cuba isn't implausible, but long-term settlement? Not sure if it's as likely, it'd still take some effort to get supplies and people back and forth from the mainland to Cuba and all without sails or large ships. But even trade posts there and in Panama would probably change a lot, make things very hard to predict, to be sure, though meeting with natives the Europeans would consider civilized far earlier might change Spanish attitudes or at least make it easier for the Spanish authorities to do what they wanted in the first place and negotiate with them.

It's a little over one hundred miles, and the currents will make it something of a problem, as they generally run clockwise in the gulf (meaning you have to fight the current on the outward leg, and ride it back in.) Plus, everywhere south of Cozumel is on a leeward coast, meaning you're going to want to be able to sail close hauled very easily, something that is rather problematic unless you've already got the whole sailmaking thing worked out pretty well, or you can deal with having a lot of rowers.

But with sails and a half-assed navigational package it's certainly doable. It's easier the other way round, and certainly, there isn't as much to accelerate it's development as the Greeks and Phoenicians had (and they had it pretty easy really, given positioning and how short the initial distances were.)

 

[Slacker]

Well, I was told by the Mayan guides where I visited Tulum and the other Mayan coastal sites that the Mayan traders used canoes that were able to stay inside the barrier reefs that are a few hundred yards offshore, which mitigates the currents to a certain extent-they were protected from the forces of the tides, storms, and what have you by the reefs. That does put an upper limit on how big your individual traders could be-a modestly sized outrigger canoe, more or less-but obviously they were able to conduct trade along the coast in both directions OTL.

 

[NothingNow]

Well, I was told by the Mayan guides where I visited Tulum and the other Mayan coastal sites that the Mayan traders used canoes that were able to stay inside the barrier reefs that are a few hundred yards offshore, which mitigates the currents to a certain extent-they were protected from the forces of the tides, storms, and what have you by the reefs. That does put an upper limit on how big your individual traders could be-a modestly sized outrigger canoe, more or less-but obviously they were able to conduct trade along the coast in both directions OTL.

leapfrogging up the coast in a canoe or a small sail boat is a fairly standard mechanism for early maritime trade, but in a situation like the Yucatan it isn't going to help you develop a decent sailing package.

IMO It'd be easiest to figure out how to transplant the Caribbean package (already decently developed,) and then have the classic Mayas more heavily influence the Ostionoid culture (that would become what we know as the Taino,) possibly through outright conquest, and then hone the package through massively increased trade. Hell, with enough time, you could start to see Cuba export food to the Yucatan, partially offsetting degredation of farmland back home. (And if someone figures out how to make Terra preta, you've more or less solved a pretty major issue.)