Wow, that took a while to read all the Timeline posts (haven't read all the comment posts, and I doubt I shall read all of them, but I have read a fair few of the more detailed).
Very interesting Mac.
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From everything read, I can say with confidence that there is a group of developed nations that will have escaped relatively unscathed, and have been completely ignored so far.
The Channel Islands themselves would not have been a target of NATO strikes, and it is rather implausible that the Soviets would specifically target these minor island nations. With a weapon of their own.
Similarly non of the towns on the French coast in this region are any form of strategic target. So it is unlikely that in this timeline any weapon would have detonated near enough the islands for the islands to have felt the 'direct effect' of the nuclear exchange.
The Channel Islands being island nations are separate from France, and so wouldn't expect to be flooded with refugees in the immediate aftermath. The islands also have/had fairly developed agricultural sectors. Guernsey produces tomato cash crop surpluses for instance, and Jersey exports large numbers of potato to both the UK and France.
In terms of fresh water, there is a grand aquifer under the islands (and that region of France), and there is a desalination plant. While reservoirs might be contaminated from rainfall in the first few months following the nuclear exchange and that water undrinkable, the reservoirs may be emptied and allowed to refill come autumn and winter. They also provide a great location for post-exchange fish rearing.
The only thing lacking for the Channel Islanders would be electrical power and fuel oil. This is not that important for agriculture as some of the islands have hillside 'cotes', and local fertiliser is natural 'vrack' (seaweed from the beaches).
Therefore is in many ways incredibly lucky in this timeline. It could be said that currently they are experiencing a 'cosy catastrophe' which is not much worse than a power outage in terms of disruption...
...I jest to a degree. Jersey for instance at the time would have had a population of about 76,000 people. This is a bit beyond the carrying capacity of the land, even if all food wasn't being exported. However, we must realise that not all of agricultural land is in intensive cultivation as the island during the latter half of the 20thC moved away from subsistence industries to tourism. Agriculture in Jersey at least never changed to an industrialised intensive farming model, instead going down the route of a modern extensive model of efficient production of the land, rather than quantity of farming given that there is far less space for farming, and food production diversification is a much better way to supply the markets.
Still with all infrastructure left intact. No need for the UK government since the islands have their own. Order could be maintained, and you would be sure that the islands population isn't just going to sit around and slowly starve. People would be moving to France. Most likely the Cotentin Peninsular looking for the manufactured goods that the islands can't produce. Since they don't have any light, medium or heavy industry.
Indeed, the Bailiwicks leaders are going to quickly realise that if the UK and France are up sh*t creek, but they have been 'spared', the only smart thing to do is for them to take on the responsibility for 'rebuilding' the western coastal part of Basse-Normandie since it's been spared destruction compared to Brest in Britanity, but you can be sure St. Malo and the other parts of the Breton coast are going to receive 'vists' in the very practical concern of the islands trading food and a sense of order, in exchange for manufactured goods and supplies that the locals can spare.
Afteral with such large resident populations, simply more land would be needed to feed everybody. The islands don't have that land, so would need to put France back on its feet as the closest partners.
What the Channel Islands would bring compared to the French, is order and centralised planning. If the French government has left, France decimated and is experiencing simmilar issues as are described in the UK, then 'guidence' from these island 'utopias' in comparison might be very much appricated. Particularly in the fact that the islands may have the private vessels (or just take them from the French coast) to re-establish fishing as a major source of food production in the region, which declined due to modern techniques in deep sea trawling making it economically unviable for the islands and coastal region.
With the area relitively full of local Chataeu in france, you can very quickly see the entire area quickly resorting into a kind of 'kingdom of cooperating fiefdoms' as if the coastal areas are fairly quickly put back up on their feet with the knowledge that the Islanders can help them, and provide a level of governance (and more importantly infomation on the world state of affairs), thus indebting the french survivors who otherwise would be with little hope.
What I mean to say by this, is that as far as this timeline has gone you've left out these little self contained communities who have nearly everything in their favour for reconstruction right in the middle of disaster, and might even be one of the few areas like Switzerland and Australia-New Zealand that come to become a real center for rebuilding efforts.
Just because these (and other) small islands are small and might look insignifiant on a map, if they are left with all their pre-war structure and institutions left intact
what can they do but help others rebuild?
EDIT: John Windham understood this in
'The Day of the Triffids', ok not exactly the same kind of situation. But from a position of stability and order, one can more easeily start the process of reconstruction. That what was in the mind of the team that went out there in that piece of fiction. Here it is not too dissimilar other than that the islands have hardly been affected in the first place.
Another point, the islands are already mildy radioactive due to the rock, and so strains of crops grown on the islands will in general perform better under fallout conditions than most other places in the world.
EDITED: I might also add, exsiting Radar, civil aviation and radio equipment, a medium-small port, along with industrial waste managment would make up some of the 'high infrastructure of the islands. Notwithstanding all the actual fortifications build during WW2 definatly detering any 'raids' by armed refugees (that is if they can actually sail in the first place) and that the islands have a fair amount of firearms (mainly for farmers, than recreation; althoug there are/were shooting ranges) anyway.