Hey, this thread is still getting traction after I've been gone for a few days! This makes me so happy.
I'm going to have to sig this one.
Alright, I think Winnebago makes some good points concerning eventual incursions by nomadic raiders and restless provinces, but while I do think the Aztecs would eventually collapse, I don't think its going to happen so quickly (basically we've given them only about a generation more than OTL). I would think the collapse would be likely during or following a particularly devastating war with either Tlaxcala or the Tarascans (perhaps both), but not solely because of nomads or internal rebellion. In any case, I'm planning on having the Aztecs around still by the time Europeans run into them. I'm not saying that many of your points are wrong, just that internal collapse is probably not going to happen in this TL (mainly because of the lack of time for such a development).
What I think is more interesting is how European interaction with the Aztecs is changed because of different (potentially Portuguese) conquistadors who might just decide to trade instead of marching against the capital city. That sounds cool to me.
LSCatalina said:
I didn't say that you'll have permanant settlement in 1500. What I said is it was only a matter of time, maybe one generation or two. Around 1540, so earlier than the first attempt (1580's unsucessful).
Sacrebleu, I thought that was what you were insinuating. My apologies.
LSCatalina said:
Where the heck did you read that? I would be more pleased if you don't put things that i never said in as "mine". Thanks.
Désolé! I thought that was what you were getting at. You were talking about Cabot and cod fishing as if Cabot was motivated by cod fisherman rather than Columbus and the Spanish explorers. Then, there's the post by Father Maryland saying that cod fishermen from Bristol (Cabot's home base) could have inspired Cabot to take a northerly route west. I sincerely apologize.
You know, the idea of English and Portuguese (and Spanish? French?) explorers in the American northeast is growing on me. I'm not sure it will result in colonization MUCH earlier than OTL, but I'm thinking the region would most certainly get more attention. Now, because after 1507 the Spanish want to go west for the sole objective of trading with the Indies, perhaps they will dilly-dally less in the Caribbean and send explorers on the northerly route to find a northwestern passage. Perhaps in doing so they can try to claim some territory in waters the Basques have been fishing for decades. I like this idea LSCatalina. What does everyone else think about that?
Cuauhtemoc said:
Now the one group of people I can see possibly conquering the Aztecs would be the Tarascans to the northeast of their Empire. The Aztecs and Tarascans were bitter rivals and had wars every so often, with the Tarascans easily and quickly beating back the several attempts by Montezuma and his predecessors to expand to their territories, often gaining land themselves. Once Montezuma is dead either through natural causes or murdered and his son in law Atlixcatzin succeeds to the throne, others have mentioned that there might be a rival contender or two to the throne, supported by the nobility. Tzuiangua, the leader of the Tarascan state, would not die due to the outbreak of smallpox due to the delayed arrival of the Europeans, and he would be in charge, instead of his young, naive son Tzintzicha Tangaxoan. War can be expected.
Ooh, interesting butterfly there, Cuauhtemoc. I like it. But, one question... had serious wars happened with the Aztecs and their neighbors during succession crises before? Were the Aztecs prone to internal wars when the tlatoani died? I mean, I've heard of that happening with the Incas but I can't remember reading that the same thing happened with the Aztecs.
9 Fanged Hummingbird said:
Personally I think the Tarascans are overrated. They weren't particularly large, the land they inhabited was not very densely populated and to the extent of my knowledge they only had one real city. That, and they were pretty much on the far western frontier of Mesoamerica. Internal collapse I think would be more likely than a successful Tarascan invasion.
I wouldn't overrate them so fast. The Tarascans had a better appreciation for metal alloys, using them to make tools as much as luxury items, and it seems power was much more centralized in their empire than it was with the Aztecs. And they weren't done growing in population... they could have easily expanded territory and grown their cities. I'm not saying they were ready to devaste the Aztecs when Cortes showed up, but they had some interesting advantages over them.
Swan Station said:
Just wanted to mention that hurricanes are rare in the Atlantic in February. Although I'm assuming they're not impossible, and if anything there are other storms and dangers that could still cause the POD.
Love your nickname, man, I'm a total Lostie myself.
Hurricanes might be rare in February nowadays, but it seems like they were normal occurrences in the 15th/16th century. Different global climate, perhaps? This is during the Little Ice Age after all. See
Columbus's vow, citing part of Columbus's diary.
Swan Station said:
When these scenarios come up, I've always leaned towards the opinion, without Columbus announcing the equivalent of a Gold Rush and handing his "conquest" to the King and Queen of Spain, the European exploration of the Americas would be slow and gradual. It would mostly consist of fishermen and traders accidentally stumbling on places to get water, maybe food, or harbors to shelter in a storm. Useful to them, but not to anyone else. Many of them would never even be reported and thus no specific date would be set down for official "discovery".
I'm inclined to agree with you, the mood of initial exploration will take on a different mood since the discovery of the Americas happened as an accident rather than a lucky break that Columbus had to spin in order to make a little bit of money off the enterprise. But while I think the initial period will be a bit slower, eventually they are going to find things in the Americas worth exploiting, such as, well, arable land and inferior natives.
Yelnoc said:
As to a more northerly route, I'm not sure. Remember, the discoveries of the Americas (for which we will need to come up with a new name) occurred even farther south than OTL. At this point, do the Spanish have any proof of new land on the same latitude as Iberia outside of the tails of some cod fishermen?
Well, what I had thought is that the Spanish want to claim lands in
India that would still be in their jurisdiction: northwards or at the same latitude as the Canary Islands. As for Grijalva, Montejo, Alvorado, Diaz, and the results of the 1507 expedition, I'll figure out what happens to them as soon as I get off work tomorrow.
Cool stuff guys. I'll write more later.