American Civil War: effects on Mexico?

[SPJ]

??Which South??
A 1865 Copperhead Victory South, almost insures Maximilian's survival.

The period 1861~1868 was as much a period of Upheavals and uncertainty in Mexico as in the US

Are there any TLs on this site with those plots?

 

[Darth_Kiryan]

I see, that kind of CSA. A CSA were Lee won the battle of Gettysburg and gets Britain to recognize them sort of Confederacy?

I do hope that you realize that even with Gettysburg as a confederate victory, Vicksburg the next day, on July 4 on all days, will still be a Union victory, regardless. So, that would give pause to the Confederates there, one way or the other, even besides Johnstons "army" which was shadowing Grant

 

[Dave Howery]

And Texas was imposing slavery where it was illegal, one of several signs the Texans were intent on not actually being good Mexican citizens. Those damned illegal immigrants, disobeying the laws of the countries they move into.

please have a little more of a contribution than this.

you too, Snake. Seriously, this issue has been debated in several threads since this old one, didn't really need to keep this one going...

 

[Tocomocho]

I know this is pretty much insanely ASB, but how 'bout they settle their differences at the Hampton Roads Peace Conference? Apparently the one topic neither side would budge on was the independence of the CSA, but one of the things proposed at the meeting was a joint attack on Maximilian's Empire of Mexico in support of Juarez, because as we all know there's no bonding experience as powerful as a good ol' fashioned war with your pals. Even if it is ASB, Hampton Roads deals with Confederate independence and the effect on Mexico all at once, yay!

...early 1865 and they still though they could achieve independence? Those guys were idiots!

 

[Johnrankins]

Lord Palmerton requests a meeting with Lincoln,
He expresses sorrow at the news, but has to tell Lincoln that Queen Victoria's Government has extended Diplomatic Recognition to the CSA.
British Warships will be escorting any British Merchantships traveling to Southern Ports.
One day later, the French Ambassador delivers the same News for Paris.

2 days later President Davis, formally Welcomes the Ambassador from Maximilian's Mexico.

Now able to buy Supplies & Food, from Europe, the CSA is in much better shape.
in summer of 1864, a CS Army under General Longstreet, decimates a Union army in northern Georgia commanded by General Sherman.
That fall Lincoln loses his bid for reelection.
As both sides head for Winter Quarters, a mood of not wanting to be the last man Shot grips the Union Army.
Over the Winter Desertions, - always a problem - escalate.

When McClellan take office in march 1865, he inherits a demoralized Military that faces a CSA that is on the Defensive in the East, and forcing withdraws in the West, when ever the two sides meet.
Attempts to Draft new Soldiers fail when State & Local Draft Boards refuse to enforce draft notices.

In early July publicly pointing to the series of defeats, He asks Davis to send a negotiating team to Washington to discuss ending the War.

Two weeks later in Nogeles, Arizona Territory, President Juarez receives the news that His Pinkerton Men, were being withdrawn

In Septembre in a ceremony in Arlington Virginia, McClellan & Davis sign the treaty, as the last Union Soldiers march out of Virginia.
The treaty recognizes the current border, and gives the CSA the southern Half of the Arizona Territory.

In northern Mexico Juarez again slips away from the French Troops a informer had lead to his hiding Place.
This is the third escape in the three months, since He was forced to leave Arizona.

In January 1866, Maximilian sells Baja to the CSA, in return for several million in Gold, and the CSA assuming Mexico's -British and Spanish Debts.

At the same time the City of New Orleans and the surrounding Parishes that had been under Union Occupation Ban slavery, as attempts to enforce the re-enslavement of the Black population fails.

In 1867 following the execution of Juarez, Mexico and the CSA sign a Treaty of Friendship promising to respect each others borders.

In 1868 McClellan and the Democrats lose the Election. The incoming Republicans lose no time in repealing the Fugitive Slave Acts.

So, Skippy the friendly Alien Space Bat hit Lord Palmerston with a mind control ray or something? The one thing he was clear about is that he wanted England to have NOTHING to do with the ACW at all. Even the most pro-CSA members his cabinet were dead set against breaking the Union blockade by force.

 

[9 Fanged Hummingbird]

...early 1865 and they still though they could achieve independence? Those guys were idiots!

Or maybe they were just optimists. Personally I think it might make a very interesting PoD if they were in a better position to negotiate from. Say, maybe they had a few more key wins (like at Vicksburg), certainly costly campaigns had not occurred (*coughGettysburgcough*), and maybe neither Lincoln nor Davis was president of either country at the time. At the very least, it would avert the cliche (even if it is justified I personally don't like it) of the CSA always being pals with Maximilian and instead teaming up with the USA to take him down.

 

[Johnrankins]

Or maybe they were just optimists. Personally I think it might make a very interesting PoD if they were in a better position to negotiate from. Say, maybe they had a few more key wins (like at Vicksburg), certainly costly campaigns had not occurred (*coughGettysburgcough*), and maybe neither Lincoln nor Davis was president of either country at the time. At the very least, it would avert the cliche (even if it is justified I personally don't like it) of the CSA always being pals with Maximilian and instead teaming up with the USA to take him down.

Except you need Skippy the Space Bat to zap Lincoln with a mind control ray for him to agree with it. He was far more concerned about a CSA surrender than whatever Max was doing.

 

[CandyDragon]

You forgot Yucatan, the Mayans were fighting there for a long time, and they might have used the unrest to recieve Juarez and proclaim the Second Republic of the Yucatan

Whoa, holy necro.

 

[Hawkeye]

I do hope that you realize that even with Gettysburg as a confederate victory, Vicksburg the next day, on July 4 on all days, will still be a Union victory, regardless. So, that would give pause to the Confederates there, one way or the other, even besides Johnstons "army" which was shadowing Grant

Yes, I have far more knowledge of the Civil War now then when I made that post. Keep in mind that this thread died four years ago.

Damn necromancers.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

Depends on the victory.

1861: Early CS win, no French involvement in Mexico.

late 1862 win: CSA a little beat up, may or may not have KY or AZ territory, French have already begun invasion of Mexico, so it's realistic to imagine the CSA aids them.

Gettysburg victory onward: Most of Mexico firmly in Maximillian's control, CSA likely aids them.

 

[Johnrankins]

Depends on the victory.

1861: Early CS win, no French involvement in Mexico.

late 1862 win: CSA a little beat up, may or may not have KY or AZ territory, French have already begun invasion of Mexico, so it's realistic to imagine the CSA aids them.

Gettysburg victory onward: Most of Mexico firmly in Maximillian's control, CSA likely aids them.

The CSA has some chance at KY but has about as much chance at getting AZ as I have in swimming the length of the Mississippi upstream!

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

The CSA has some chance at KY but has about as much chance at getting AZ as I have in swimming the length of the Mississippi upstream!

Like I said, it really depends on what condition the CSA is in order to have an idea of what kind of effect it can have on Mexico.

 

[Johnrankins]

Like I said, it really depends on what condition the CSA is in order to have an idea of what kind of effect it can have on Mexico.

I don't care when it wins, it doesn't take AZ.

 

[The Gunslinger]

If the North loses the civil war after Maximillian is installed, it's a fair bet he'll win. There will likely be a good amount of chaos (not anarchy, but losing a war always slows things down), and the USA might not be as willing to arm Juarez.

If Juarez isn't being armed with American guns and money, it's a pretty sure bet that he loses.

Once that happens, Mexico makes a huge right turn and I'm not totally sure what would happen. He was always hamstrung by the deals he signed from the get-go with the French about Mexican finances, but most of the bad decisions he made in his reign were towards the end of it, so those will probably be averted if things are looking up and not down.