Eyes Turned Skywards

Post 17: ESA update, Europa 3 design, the Seat Wars, and the creation of the Block III+ Apollo
Hello everyone! It's my favorite holiday of the year: the last day of finals! (And, if my co-op accepts my acceptance of their offer, my last day of school until August!) To celebrate, here's the next update for Eyes Turned Skyward. I hope you enjoy it, I made it myself. Note that some of the contents of this post are there because of earlier comments on this thread. Truth and I want to make this the best quality TL we can, so please...if you have comments or speculations on this or any other post, feel free to chime in. On another note, we've now passed the 10,000 view mark, and are probably going to hit 11,000 on this update. Thank you all for continuing to follow this TL.

Eyes Turned Skyward, Post #17:

By 1977, ESA was far more of a mature organization that the motley sum of parts of ELDO and ESRO that it had begun as in 1972, let alone the fractious amalgamation of independent space programs that had made up ELDO and ESRO. However, it was still facing many challenges; first and foremost was the agency’s manned program. ESA had signed on as a partner for NASA’s Spacelab program, bartering the construction of a European Research Module to expand the station’s capabilities (including adding astronomical equipment and more lab space) in exchange for slots for their new astronaut corps to fly to the station after the completion of the ASTP II flight. However, the development of the ERM and the training of ESA’s first astronauts would be over-shadowed by what some historians would come to dub the “seat wars.” The seat wars were a series of conflicts between ESA managers, mission planners, and astronauts and their NASA counterparts, with additional conflicts between the same NASA managers and members of their own science contingent and astronaut corps over the availability and allocation of slots for flights to Spacelab. The complaints from the NASA scientists and from ESA were both about the fact that the Block III Apollo left non-pilots fighting for a single seat per flight. ESA was thus only offered four slots for their astronauts in the period 1978-1980, which they felt was unfair given their contributions in developing the ERM and reflective of a general attitude at NASA that took them for granted and failed to fully appreciate their contributions to the international scientific potential nature of Spacelab. NASA’s science corps, in turn, pointed out that the so-called “throttle-jockeys” of the astronaut corps had much greater chances of flying than Flight Scientists with similar seniority.

However, NASA managers responded, these complaints about insufficient seat allocations ignored the simple facts of the hardware available. The Block III had just three seats, and two had to be occupied by pilot-trained NASA astronauts. ESA offered to take the problem off NASA’s hands if they could be allowed to fly their astronauts as pilots, rather than flight scientists, thus opening that slot for NASA’s own science corps. However, NASA managers were unwilling for the moment to put their spacecraft’s controls into foreign hands and NASA’s pilot-astronaut corps’s reaction was viscerally and emphatically negative. The rejection of the proposal was rapid and quite clear. ESA astronauts would continue to fly as Flight Scientists, not pilots. NASA’s scientists meanwhile pointed to the increased size of the laboratory volume of Spacelab compared to Skylab and the potential need for more experienced scientists to carry out experiments. While NASA’s own studies indicated that fully using Spacelab might require more crew time than would be available from a three-person crew, an increase to six-person crews would require keeping two Apollo crews on-station, and would still leave just two open slots. However, NASA’s science corps was even more incensed by this response and the ESA began making noises about withdrawing its participation.

In this polarized environment, Rockwell International (the result of merger between North American Aviation and Rockwell-Standard, the inheritor of the Apollo CSM contract) stepped forward with a proposal. With their involvement in the space program, they could hardly fail to be aware of the seat wars and they had a proposal; The essential thrust of the disagreement was over how to use the three seats of the Block III, but what if the Block III didn’t have to have just 3 seats? What Rockwell’s Block III+ proposal laid out was a plan to modify the basic Block III design to the so-called “rescue Skylab” five-seat configuration, and make use of the four tons of margin available on the Saturn 1C to move lockers and supplies to a new additional volume. This new “Mission Module” would sit below the Apollo CSM during launch as the Docking Module had on ASTP, then after second stage burnout would be extracted. The CSM would dock with one of two axial ports, with the crew then free to use facilities in both the Command Module and the Mission Module during the trip to Spacelab. Upon arrival, the Block III+ stack would dock to Spacelab just as the basic Block III would by using the second axial port at the front of the MM. The Mission Module would be discarded before entry just as the service module was. The idea was something of a combination of the rescue Skylab and Russian Soyuz concepts, but on a larger scale. The Mission Module would be roughly 2 m in diameter and 3 m long, massing about 3.8 tons and offering roughly 10 cubic meters of additional volume, though some of that would be taken up by lockers, a waste disposal system, and other fittings. However, this would still offer the Block III+ crew about as much personal space as Apollo Block III would. Faced with the rumbles within NASA and the diplomatic ramifications of even threats of an ESA pullout of Spacelab, managers signed off on the plan, and money was included in the FY 1979 budget to begin the estimated 2 year development program.

For NASA’s science contingent, this settled their major concerns. There would now be three seats for non-pilots available on each flight instead of just one, meaning they wouldn’t have to see Flight Scientists bumped to allow ESA astronauts to fly. Their plans for Spacelab use in the early 80s now focused on the best way to make use of five astronauts in the basic lab and the ERM. However, the ESA was less satisfied by the resolution to the seat wars. Though they would now be allowed to fly potentially one astronaut per mission starting in 1981 on top of the slots already promised for 1978-1980, they felt that NASA was treating them as an organization to be humored, a source of political cover as opposed to a true international partner worthy of respect. This drove them to continue to pursue development of their own launch capabilities in parallel with continuing training of their astronauts for missions in co-operation with NASA and tied back into the other major issue facing the ESA, the continuing debate over what to do about evolving the Europa launch vehicle.

The major question was whether to simply enhance Europa with more powerful boosters and a possible stretch of the first stage, or to build a whole new more powerful first-stage. Enhancing Europa to accept even more powerful boosters than the French Black Diamant boosters of the Europa 2-TA would require thickening the stage walls further, plus a stretch of the first stage to fully utilize the potential gains. A full new first stage would cost more, but would in turn offer the chance for even more evolution in the future. While both options could get payloads into the 2-4 metric ton to LEO range, the desire on the part of the ESA leadership to develop their own manned capability in the near future, both for prestige and to prove to NASA that the ESA was worth taking seriously as a partner, favored the new first stage that would potentially be able to be evolved to reach the 5,000 to 6,000 kg range that a even a minimalist manned multi-crew capsule would require. This drove the decision in 1978 to focus on a new first launch vehicle to be designated the Europa 3. The new first stage would be built with a larger diameter, and would feature four RZ2 engines redesigned by Rolls-Royce for better performance in ISP and thrust. The second and third stages would be French-built using LH2/LOX engines. With the Europa 3 slated to enter service in 1985, European designers began several studies into minimal-mass crew-launch options.
 
So the ESA/NASA frictions are coming into the fore. OTL, this was less of an issue since STS could carry a maximum of eight astronauts per flight, leaving plenty of room for a few non-NASA crew to fly. With Apollo ITTL, only having three seats for the time being with five being made possible still leaves room for Seat Wars to rear its ugly head. So it's little - if indeed any - surprise that ESA Manned Spaceflight capability is receiving an additional boost here. Having said that though, I do have a few concerns:

1) Spacecraft Mass - OTL Soyuz had an original mass of 6,600Kg and was actually rather minimal. Short of having the crew size set at just 2, I struggle to see how you can shed a further 600Kg of the mass - and still have a reasonable habitable volume. OTL Gemini was nicknamed 'The Grissom-mobile' for a reason.

2) Europa 3 - What are it's evolutionary options? The RZ2s and HM7s - or equivilant engine - look like they'll be uprated to enhance the performance, but what other options exist? Boosters - solid or liquid? And the 6,000Kg you seem to be planning as the upper limit of the Spacecraft Mass, is that the Europa 3 Base Payload? The Upper Payload Limit? Or somewhere in between the two?

3) TKS/Salyut/Mir - While this update didn't cover the Russian side of things, by this point, TKS must be well into the testing phases in preparation for it's replacing of the Soyuz Manned Spacecraft. So it makes sense that improving the UR-500 has been occuring in parallel to TKS development, and therefore must be at the required reliablity and - in particular - survivability ratings for such use. This will also carry effects over to the Salyut designs which, owing to the rather small interior volume of the Soyuz, needed to be able to house the crew. With TKS able to carry that role ITTL, Salyuts can be more like pure labs, with TKS used as the living space. Which in turn will influence the design of Mir, just as OTL Salyuts influenced the design of OTL Mir. So the question is a very simple one. When can we all expect these points to be answered?
 
Having said that though, I do have a few concerns:

1) Spacecraft Mass - OTL Soyuz had an original mass of 6,600Kg and was actually rather minimal. Short of having the crew size set at just 2, I struggle to see how you can shed a further 600Kg of the mass - and still have a reasonable habitable volume. OTL Gemini was nicknamed 'The Grissom-mobile' for a reason.

2) Europa 3 - What are it's evolutionary options? The RZ2s and HM7s - or equivilant engine - look like they'll be uprated to enhance the performance, but what other options exist? Boosters - solid or liquid? And the 6,000Kg you seem to be planning as the upper limit of the Spacecraft Mass, is that the Europa 3 Base Payload? The Upper Payload Limit? Or somewhere in between the two?
6,000 kg is just the base payload, and its a rather rough number. I need to take time now that finals are over and work those numbers better. Boosters--probably solids in the initial design but they may also study liquid boosters, either adding full cores like CCBs or maybe using strap-on Blue Streaks. The spacecraft mass is likely to depend on at least some booster set, since as you say 6 tons is low for a manned craft.
So the question is a very simple one. When can we all expect these points to be answered?
A simple question deserves a simple answer. We have the Russian stuff written, but it's currently planned to be about update 22. It may be moved up, but for the moment I'll answer your questions with what the US knows ITTL: Proton is flying more often and is achieving more reliability. The TKS design has seen several tests, and is seems a likely favorite to replace Soyuz soon, but probably not before 1980.
 
It may be moved up, but for the moment I'll answer your questions with what the US knows ITTL: Proton is flying more often and is achieving more reliability.

Which is pretty much as per OTL, after all. The nadir of the Proton was the 1968-1972 period, more or less, and it was clearly getting better towards the end of that. Even if it didn't technically pass all tests until, IIRC, 1976 or so, by 1972-1973 it was practically a different rocket.
 
Which is pretty much as per OTL, after all. The nadir of the Proton was the 1968-1972 period, more or less, and it was clearly getting better towards the end of that. Even if it didn't technically pass all tests until, IIRC, 1976 or so, by 1972-1973 it was practically a different rocket.

I just checked. According to the first paragraph of this source, the UR-500 K Series did not complete it's State Trials until its sixty-first launch - Salyut 6, 29/09/1977. After which, its reliability rating was comparable to that of other launch vehicles of its class.
 
A simple question deserves a simple answer. We have the Russian stuff written, but it's currently planned to be about update 22. It may be moved up, but for the moment I'll answer your questions with what the US knows ITTL: Proton is flying more often and is achieving more reliability. The TKS design has seen several tests, and is seems a likely favorite to replace Soyuz soon, but probably not before 1980.

So up to five weeks before the questions receive detailed answers. For now, I'll venture some guesses and we'll see how well they stack up later. With UR-500 needing to be Man-Rated, more attention would be paid to its reliability in flight, more resources made available to accomplish this goal - with the cancellation of the ill-fated N-1 freeing up said resources - which IMHO, would accelerate the improvements in the launch vehicle. Furthermore, with TKS seeing test flights by the mid-late 70s, 1980 appears to be a perfectly reasonable date to see it enter full service and replace Soyuz - with the Manned Test Flights likely beginning one or two years prior.

So this provides the general idea of what happens to Comrades Mishin and Chelomei - the latter appearing to get off slightly better here than OTL - all that's left is Comrade Valentin Petrovich Glushko. I'll guess that OKB-1 & OKB 456 still get merged into NPO Energomash as per OTL, with Glushko as the head of the new merged organisation.

It'll be interesting watching all this develop and seeing how close to the mark - or far off, which could still be the case - I am in all the points raised.
 
I'm all for bigger and better spaceships with more nifty gizmos on them, of course!

But there's another approach to addressing the complaints of both the ESA and the American scientist corps. Why exactly does the Apollo Block III need two pilots?

It made sense to specify that when they were focused on going all the way to the Moon, a whole light-second out from Mission Control, and were in addition pioneering a whole new type of spaceship and the net prior experience of man in space was still distressingly low in accumulated flight time. To land on the moon is also the sort of task where a copilot comes in very handy.

But now that the mission is simply one run after another straight to the space station and then deorbit to a splashdown, can't a case be made for streamlining the "pilot" task to a workload suitable for one pilot-astronaut, presumably the commander, doubling the number of "non-pilots" send up each mission without changing the mass of the capsule at all?

Part of the argument for such a move would be that by now NASA has a lot more experience and can be more definitive and less pioneering about just what the job of a space pilot is. Part of it is that this mission is somewhat simpler than the moonshots were, and furthermore happens much closer to ground control, so should the single pilot have a stroke or something, the "non-pilots" in conjunction with automated systems and remote control could be talked through the basics of a safe return to Earth.

And part of it, a crucial part I think, is that technology, particularly avionics, has meanwhile been advancing very fast. The 1970s OTL saw a trend of greatly streamlining airliner crews; it wasn't unusual for the cockpit of an early-generation large intercontinental jetliner to have a flight crew of three, four, or even five--pilot, copilot, check, but also a flight engineer, a separate communications/navigator...Driven by the quest for greater economy and enabled by the transformation of electronics and the rapid multiplication of the capabilities of an acceptably massed and priced avionics suite, the industry set out to pare these crews down to the just two, pilot and copilot, needed.

Looking at this, I assume the Apollo avionics suites have been being continually revised, since each capsule is built anew for just one launch. I can see being conservative on the grounds that the original equipment is tried and true, but as the 70's near the 80s, electronics designed in the mid-1960s will come to look increasingly quaint and antique, pathetic in its capabilities for its weight compared to cheap third-rate knockoff junk now available on the market. Obviously they don't want to rip that lavishly and expensively designed stuff out and plug in just any old dime store gimcracks, but I think the logic of mass savings alone to achieve a given functionality will argue powerfully for a policy of upgrades, provided by the most respected (and expensive!) top-notch contractors the military-industrial complex harbors, of course! Subjected to the most stringent tests, stipulated that they must match or exceed the reliability of the old stuff, survive the most grueling physical torture tests, with high bars set for manifest improvements in performance and reliability while simultaneously reducing both mass and power draw (hence saving on cooling costs as well)--I believe the advancing state of the art of electronics would take all these hurdles in stride and steadily, with each launch, deliver more computing power with more sophisticated programming in ever lighter, more compact, less power-hungry and increasingly robust packages. This would free up mass, auxiliary power, and cooling capacity for other things. Or lighten the load, perhaps enough to cram in another astronaut?

Or--free up room for a really sophisticated autopilot system subject to control from the increasingly powerful and fast ground control systems, with ever-improving reliability of communications with increasing bandwidth.

Under these circumstances, if NASA still cannot simply shoehorn in another astronaut or two, perhaps they can much more easily simply switch a non-pilot in in place of the now-redundant second pilot.

It's only a stopgap; I can certainly see the case being made to restore the co-pilot position once bigger spacecraft such as the IIIi allow five instead of just three to go up; three non-pilots is still progress, even if my suggestion were taken up and they'd gone from one to two already. Perhaps having just one pilot is a bit of a risk.

But after all, I've been putting "non-pilot" in scare quotes because surely even the scientist-specialists did have some training in how to operate the controls, at least enough to be talked through by GC in an emergency where only they remained capable of these operations. After all, the only point in bringing a third and non-pilot crew member on the Lunar Apollo missions would have been to land a scientist rather than a throttle jock on the Moon itself--yet that meant that insofar as a specialist was not a pilot the Lunar Module was landing with a flight crew of just one! The most demanding and bizarre maneuver, with no copilot whatsover? Of course not--the "specialist/scientist" was also a pilot, if perhaps one who deferred with some awe to the "real" pilot who commanded. Meanwhile the other "pilot," presumably more of one than the second lunar landing crewman, languished in orbit alone in the CM, grumbling quietly to himself and almost hoping for some emergency that would justify his having been left to hold the fort, his special skill merely kept on ice in reserve.

So--I'd think that it would be quite possible to train at least one, and why not both, of the two mission specialists to adequately save the day in the kind of emergency that takes the commander/pilot out of commission. But if things go smoothly, just the one should be plenty, between much more experience with space travel, lots of sophisticated avionics, a simpler mission, and Ground Control monitoring everything with more and more bandwidth and sophistication.

Meanwhile I assume the "throttle jocks" of NASA were always, all along, more than just grunts--they were generally not just pilots but test pilots, with both lots of flight experience often in the most cutting edge experimental aircraft, and engineering degrees. Just as specialists could serve as pilots in a pinch, so could pilots carry their load as mission scientists.
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None of this does much to address the politics of course! The pilot cadre was extremely competitive and jealous of its established prerogatives; the Europeans, being completely frozen out of that golden circle, are understandably upset. Making the American cake bigger makes it easier to share but it seems the Europeans are correct in their perception they are second-class and patronized and I wholly approve their quest for Euro-Space.

What would have been better of course would have been for the two programs to merge in a meaningful sense, for a certain share of both specialist and pilot seats to have been filled by Europeans, for the evolving designs of the projects to be more or less seamlessly the product of designers on both sides of the ocean. (Having read some NASA histories recently, I laugh and shudder when I think of how difficult it was to herd the cats of the various separate NASA centers--but by that same token, perhaps adding some extra centers in Europe into the mix might not have made anything actually worse!:p)

Well, seriously, I do think you are being realistic here, the programs would not merge and until the Europeans owned their owned manned launch capability they would surely suffer these kinds of slights and discriminations. Given that, I think the timeline is well on course.

I totally look forward to the expanded orbital Apollo Block IIIi, seating five, and with the job of the copilot restored.
 
Shevek, your stream-of-conciousness and the order of my answer don't quite line up, so I'll be moving a few things around to respond in an order that'll make sense to me..
I'm all for bigger and better spaceships with more nifty gizmos on them, of course!

But there's another approach to addressing the complaints of both the ESA and the American scientist corps. Why exactly does the Apollo Block III need two pilots?

It made sense to specify that when they were focused on going all the way to the Moon, a whole light-second out from Mission Control, and were in addition pioneering a whole new type of spaceship and the net prior experience of man in space was still distressingly low in accumulated flight time. To land on the moon is also the sort of task where a copilot comes in very handy.

But now that the mission is simply one run after another straight to the space station and then deorbit to a splashdown, can't a case be made for streamlining the "pilot" task to a workload suitable for one pilot-astronaut, presumably the commander, doubling the number of "non-pilots" send up each mission without changing the mass of the capsule at all?

You could but it'd be changes. Lots of changes, and to one of the most delicate and expensive parts of a spacecraft: the guidance system. Space is an incredibly bad environment for electronics, since even levels of radiation and EM flux humans can endure for months can flip bits and corrupt memory. Beyond that, circuits must not fail, since they are so critical. The programs may not bug out due to some missed software difference, the configuration of the hardware must be known and its performance under the space envirnment well-understood. Due to these stringent requirements, space-based electronics, at least in the avionics area, tends to lag at minimum 5 years behind commercial-grade. It also means that a "quick change" is almost anything but. Even configuring software on ISS to let Dragon dock to it on the upcoming COTS-2/3 mission is a job and a half, requiring months of software prep and review on Earth and days of crew time in space.

Looking at this, I assume the Apollo avionics suites have been being continually revised, since each capsule is built anew for just one launch. I can see being conservative on the grounds that the original equipment is tried and true, but as the 70's near the 80s, electronics designed in the mid-1960s will come to look increasingly quaint and antique, pathetic in its capabilities for its weight compared to cheap third-rate knockoff junk now available on the market. Obviously they don't want to rip that lavishly and expensively designed stuff out and plug in just any old dime store gimcracks, but I think the logic of mass savings alone to achieve a given functionality will argue powerfully for a policy of upgrades, provided by the most respected (and expensive!) top-notch contractors the military-industrial complex harbors, of course! Subjected to the most stringent tests, stipulated that they must match or exceed the reliability of the old stuff, survive the most grueling physical torture tests, with high bars set for manifest improvements in performance and reliability while simultaneously reducing both mass and power draw (hence saving on cooling costs as well)--I believe the advancing state of the art of electronics would take all these hurdles in stride and steadily, with each launch, deliver more computing power with more sophisticated programming in ever lighter, more compact, less power-hungry and increasingly robust packages. This would free up mass, auxiliary power, and cooling capacity for other things. Or lighten the load, perhaps enough to cram in another astronaut?
Actually, you may be surprised to learn that there were just two variants of Apollo computer OTL, one that flew with the Block I on its test flights and the one that powered the Block II on all manned flights. The Block II was an upgrade, but it was constant from then on. The software was tweaked flight to flight, but it was mostly bug fixes and mission-specific changes. ITTL, the Apollo capsule is flown by a new version of the computer, but it's been the same, and with the major issues ironed out on the first few flights it's not going to change much. Why? Partly because of the environment. Partly because any space-ready electronic or upgrade program costs a lot--figure the cost for a terrestrial program of similar scope, then add two zeros to the cost. Partly to give the constancy and reliability spaceflight depends on. They probably take the chance for a minor refresh on the Block III+, but it won't be a big change. The changes needed to allow only one pilots--internal reconfiguring of the computers, changing the entire main control panel, re-writing every manual...The Block III+ program adding the mission module is probably actually cheaper, and it's far more conservative technically (this is a good thing in spaceflight).

And part of it, a crucial part I think, is that technology, particularly avionics, has meanwhile been advancing very fast. The 1970s OTL saw a trend of greatly streamlining airliner crews; it wasn't unusual for the cockpit of an early-generation large intercontinental jetliner to have a flight crew of three, four, or even five--pilot, copilot, check, but also a flight engineer, a separate communications/navigator...Driven by the quest for greater economy and enabled by the transformation of electronics and the rapid multiplication of the capabilities of an acceptably massed and priced avionics suite, the industry set out to pare these crews down to the just two, pilot and copilot, needed.
There's some truth to what you say about role reduction, but NASA used much of the changes that would see commercial application in the 70s in how Apollo was done from the start. The computer did a hell of a lot of the systems monitoring, basic navigation, and even basic autopilot and rate holds from the start. The two pilots were the minimum--they were monitoring attitude, position, systems status, and a heck of a lot more.

Or--free up room for a really sophisticated autopilot system subject to control from the increasingly powerful and fast ground control systems, with ever-improving reliability of communications with increasing bandwidth.
Orbital communication were still intermittent and patchy even when available well into the Shuttle era. Even ISS slips in and out of comm windows from time to time--if you watch the live webcam feed, you'll be very aware of how much time they spend out of the high-bandwidth Ku coverage.

Under these circumstances, if NASA still cannot simply shoehorn in another astronaut or two, perhaps they can much more easily simply switch a non-pilot in in place of the now-redundant second pilot.
For the reasons above and more, nope.

Perhaps having just one pilot is a bit of a risk.
Yep. Two pilots is the minimum for almost any complex air vehicle outside of a fighter even in the modern era. A pilot to command the vehicle, and a co-pilot capable of checking everything the pilot does, supporting his activities, checking the responses to his actions, helping to diagnose situations or respond to issues, and generally to do necesary things.
But after all, I've been putting "non-pilot" in scare quotes because surely even the scientist-specialists did have some training in how to operate the controls, at least enough to be talked through by GC in an emergency where only they remained capable of these operations. After all, the only point in bringing a third and non-pilot crew member on the Lunar Apollo missions would have been to land a scientist rather than a throttle jock on the Moon itself--yet that meant that insofar as a specialist was not a pilot the Lunar Module was landing with a flight crew of just one! The most demanding and bizarre maneuver, with no copilot whatsover? Of course not--the "specialist/scientist" was also a pilot, if perhaps one who deferred with some awe to the "real" pilot who commanded.
The LMP was a pilot, with the same test pilot background as the rest of the astronaut corp, on every single flight except OTL Apollo 17--Harrison Schmitt was the only exception, and he did literally years of training in piloting to get to the point were he could perform the co-pilot role for Cernan.

Meanwhile I assume the "throttle jocks" of NASA were always, all along, more than just grunts--they were generally not just pilots but test pilots, with both lots of flight experience often in the most cutting edge experimental aircraft, and engineering degrees. Just as specialists could serve as pilots in a pinch, so could pilots carry their load as mission scientists.
They could, they were smart. But when they were generally engineering trained, as opposed to, say, biologists or oceanographers or geologists or physicians. Anything relating to the mission had to be taught from the basics, and it adds time and expense to training.
 
1. I agree with e of pi - there's just no way NASA would sign on to a manned orbital vehicle with anything less than two fully rated pilots. Not in 1978, not in 2011...nor even in 2031, near as I can make out. It is telling that the space shuttle required a commander and a pilot on all missions - a requirement that never changed over three decades despite all the considerable upgrades in avionics.

2. I was wondering if anything might be done with the "Skylab Rescue" CSM to boost crew size in this development line, e of pi, and I'm glad you all took advantage. And the addition of a Soyuz-inspired mission/orbital module is a nice touch. That's some considerable extra weight...I hadn't considered the possibility, probably because I still tend to think in terms of Saturn Ib payload capabilities.

3. I also agree, however, that this would not cool off the "seat wars" with ESA versus OTL, given that we're still talking about only three non-pilot seats on the Block III versus 5-6 on the shuttle - and that's a big difference. Certainly that would give extra impetus to ESA to want to develop its own manned launch capability than was the case in OTL. But getting the dollars from the European Community partners would not be any easier, even with limited British participation. We assume Thatcher comes to power in 1979, and her governments were keen on keeping budgets down. At the end of the day, I consider it unlikely that ESA can develop a viable manned launch capability of its own. The money just wouldn't be easy to find. They would be forced to play ball with NASA, and they would be grumpier.

Of course, political pressure could be applied by ESA in more than one direction. They could have their governments apply it in Washington. Given the difficulty that the Reagan administration was already having in getting European cooperation to accede to a defense buildup (and deployment of Pershing II and cruise missiles to Europe), Washington might be more inclined to boost NASA funding to better accommodate European participation than might have been the case otherwise. Certainly that played a role in the relatively early inclusion of ESA on Spacelab missions on the Shuttle.

Can't wait to see how the Spacelab missions turn out. Keep up the great work.
 
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One more item which occurs to me on reflection.

The more I read Eyes Turned Skywards, the more I feel reinforced in my belief that the Shuttle was a wrong decision - a dead end that ended up doing more harm than good in the long run. And I just don't mean the 14 dead astronauts of Challenger and Columbia.

The Shuttle proved to be too ambitious. The funds were not there to do an optimal truly reusable shuttle system. It required immediate compromises in design. And eventually, it required the dollars from almost everything else. A lot of Apollo/Saturn hardware was left unused because the Shuttle required every scrap of funding post-Skylab. A lot of robotic exploration had to be scaled back. The military even lost most of its independent launch capability (which only came back after the Challenger disaster). And the space station which was supposed to be the Shuttle's destination could never get funded until the 90's - and only with a lot of Russian, European, and Japanese help - when the STS was on its last legs.

The Shuttle tried to accomplish too many things at once: Not just a reusable launch vehicle, not just a highly economic one, but one which could loft both crew and payloads into orbit - and return them all to Earth. And because the design was so compromised, it turned out to be neither very safe nor economic.

The recent news that the X-37b unmanned reusable shuttle that the Air Force has been playing with might now lead to a larger version, the X-37c, capable of sending and returning up to six astronauts to low earth orbit is instructive. To my mind, this suggests the more prudent path to a reusable vehicle and a more sensible approach to low earth (and beyond) capability: You stick with an Apollo/Saturn derived system that focuses on establishing a longterm manned presence in low earth orbit, refining it, developing it, along the lines suggested here in Eyes Turned Skywards. Meanwhile, you build towards something like the X-37 - an unmanned reusable shuttle. Eventually, that becomes a reusable shuttle that only transports crew, not payload (and sits on top of the launch stack, rather than on the side of it). This eventually becomes a complement for Apollo and its capsule successors, and even a replacement. But heavy payloads - whether they be space station modules, or components for expeditions beyond LWO - continue to be launched on medium and heavy lift EELV's. You take it step by step.

Somewhere further down the road, you might end up combining more of these features in a true heavy lift resuable SSTO that could lift payload and crew. But that's still down the road. Perhaps it would have been a little closer, however, had we chosen another path.

At any rate, keep up the good work.
 
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1. I agree with e of pi - there's just no way NASA would sign on to a manned orbital vehicle with anything less than two fully rated pilots. Not in 1978, not in 2011...nor even in 2031, near as I can make out. It is telling that the space shuttle required a commander and a pilot on all missions - a requirement that never changed over three decades despite all the considerable upgrades in avionics.
Indeed. It's good to have two pilots, since it means one can be focused on the task of flying while the other supports the pilot's activities, picking up roles like systems engineer and navigator. If the Block III+ MM and 5-seat configuration hadn't been possible, they might have considered letting a pilot-trained specialist as opposed to a pilot with years of experience take over the co-pilot seat, as they did with Schmitt in the LM for Apollo 17 (18 ITTL), but it'd never have gone to someone who wasn't fully pilot-qualified. With the fourth and fifth seats to be available in two years, NASA is even less likely to make even any concessions on pilots.

2. I was wondering if anything might be done with the "Skylab Rescue" CSM to boost crew size in this development line, e of pi, and I'm glad you all took advantage. And the addition of a Soyuz-inspired mission/orbital module is a nice touch. That's some considerable extra weight...I hadn't considered the possibility, probably because I still tend to think in terms of Saturn Ic payload capabilities.
With the cutting of un-needed systems and tankage (and the fuel for those tanks) from the Block II lunar Apollo, Block III was already light enough to have about 4 tons margin on the Saturn 1C--actually it would have had much the same margin on the 1B, it's how they got the docking module up on ASTP I OTL and ITTL. The MM means they have essentially spent their entire margin, but it adds those critical fourth and fifth seats.

3. I also agree, however, that this would not cool off the "seat wars" with ESA versus OTL, given that we're still talking about only three non-pilot seats on the Block III versus 5-6 on the shuttle - and that's a big difference. Certainly that would give extra impetus to ESA to want to develop its own manned launch capability than was the case in OTL. But getting the dollars from the European Community partners would not be any easier, even with limited British participation. We assume Thatcher comes to power in 1979, and her governments were keen on keeping budgets down. At the end of the day, I consider it unlikely that ESA can develop a viable manned launch capability of its own. The money just wouldn't be easy to find. They would be forced to play ball with NASA, and they would be grumpier.
I'm not so sure that British participation would be "limited" in terms of funding--it's certainly not in terms of work, after all. Europa 3's first stage is British-built, though I'm not sure exactly which company is building it--it's gone from De Havilland to Hawker Sidley, likely, but this is around the time Hawker Sidley gets merged into British Aerospace. Regardless, the fact that a large part of the money sent to ESA will come back to Britain and support the British aerospace industry might help be some nice political armor. This doesn't mean the ESA is going to be rolling in dough, but if they can hit 30% or so of NASA's budget (not an unreasonable number) they should have money to spend on manned spaceflight of their own, particularly if they save the development until after Europa 3 is developed and start to fly. For the record on the Europa 3 front, I ran the numbers and it looks like I may revise our initial estimate of 6000 kg to LEO to 6600 kg, even to a Spacelab 225x225 by 51.6 degree orbit, which is enough for a EuroSoyuz. Adding liquid or solid boosters or a CCB design could get that into some interesting ranges.

Of course, political pressure could be applied by ESA in more than one direction. They could have their governments apply it in Washington. Given the difficulty that the Reagan administration was already having in getting European cooperation to accede to a defense buildup (and deployment of PErshing II and cruise missiles to Europe), Washington might be more inclined to boost NASA funding to better accommodate European participation than might have been the case otherwise. Certainly that played a role in the relatively early inclusion of ESA on Spacelab missions on the Shuttle.
I'll think about it, talk it over with Truth.

One more item which occurs to me on reflection.

The more I read Eyes Turned Skywards, the more I feel reinforced in my belief that the Shuttle was a wrong decision - a dead end that ended up doing more harm than good in the long run. And I just don't mean the 14 dead astronauts of Challenger and Columbia.
Writing Eyes Turned Skyward has done much the same for me. I knew it had the potential to be better, but the degree of improvement continues to surprise me. I can't speak for how Truth feels about it, but it was enough to start writing what would become Eyes Turned Skyward, so...

The Shuttle proved to be too ambitious. The funds were not there to do an optimal truly reusable shuttle system. It required immediate compromises in design. And eventually, it required the dollars from almost everything else. A lot of Apollo/Saturn hardware was left unused because the Shuttle required every scrap of funding post-Skylab. A lot of robotic exploration had to be scaled back. The military even lost most of its independent launch capability (which only came back after the Challenger disaster). And the space station which was supposed to be the Shuttle's destination could never get funded until the 90's - and only with a lot of Russian, European, and Japanese help - when the STS was on its last legs.

The Shuttle tried to accomplish too many things at once: Not just a reusable launch vehicle, not just a highly economic one, but one which could loft both crew and payloads into orbit - and return them all to Earth. And because the design was so compromised, it turned out to be neither very safe nor economic.

The recent news that the X-37b unmanned reusable shuttle that the Air Force has been playing with might now lead to a larger version, the X-37c, capable of sending and returning up to six astronauts to low earth orbit is instructive. To my mind, this suggests the more prudent path to a reusable vehicle and a more sensible approach to low earth (and beyond) capability: You stick with an Apollo/Saturn derived system that focuses on establishing a longterm manned presence in low earth orbit, refining it, developing it, along the lines suggested here in Eyes Turned Skywards. Meanwhile, you build towards something like the X-37 - an unmanned reusable shuttle. Eventually, that becomes a reusable shuttle that only transports crew, not payload (and sits on top of the launch stack, rather than on the side of it). This eventually becomes a complement for Apollo and its capsule successors, and even a replacement. But heavy payloads - whether they be space station modules, or components for expeditions beyond LWO - continue to be launched on medium and heavy lift EELV's. You take it step by step.
I'm mostly quoting this because it's a good summary, but I do want to express my skepticism about the odds of any of the X37B conversions coming true. It's only got a payload of about 500 lbs in the current size, and scaling up the design is non-trivial, especially when there's just not a lot X-37C could offer that others aren't already far more advanced in doing. Want a spacecraft, period? SpaceX has Dragon flying and are working on man-rating, plus Boeing already has CST-100 in the works if you must buy from them. Have your heart set on a spaceplane? SNC is already getting money for Dreamchaser.

To be honest, the Boeing thing about converting X37 read like a simple "is there any other moey we could make on this?" report, and the answer to me seems a resounding "not really." To me, the more important lesson from all this isn't so much what Shuttle did to American spaceflight, it's about the lessons that can be taken into where spaceflight is today, and actually X37 falls on the wrong side of that lesson--it doesn't do anything better or cheaper than anything else that's already flying or being developed.

At any rate, keep up the good work.
Thank you, we're doing what we can. Please keep reading.
 
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Hello e of pi,

Thanks kindly for the extensive feedback.

Just a few thoughts in reply:

1. If the Block III+ MM and 5-seat configuration hadn't been possible, they might have considered letting a pilot-trained specialist as opposed to a pilot with years of experience take over the co-pilot seat, as they did with Schmitt in the LM for Apollo 17 (18 ITTL), but it'd never have gone not going to go to someone who wasn't fully pilot-qualified.

I couldn't agree more.

I thought of that, but qualifying it seemed to belabor a point that was already becoming tedious (at least as I was composing it). In any event, a pilot-qualified specialist really doesn't change the basic equation much for the scientific community.

2. This doesn't mean the ESA is going to be rolling in dough, but if they can hit 30% or so of NASA's budget (not an unreasonable number) they should have money to spend on manned spaceflight of their own, particularly if they save the development until after Europa 3 is developed and start to fly.

You make an excellent point about the return to investment going to British aerospace - one that would be made in Parliament at debate time, to be sure. That might well turn the tide, if British participation is large enough to supply the needed margin. (And it could be.)

It's just that...30% seems like a push to me. I'd have to go back and look at the budget figures again...but that's a sizable chunk we're counting on the UK to supply, even with the (sunk cost) British booster contribution. And it provides no margin for error. Politics enter into all this so intrusively, and that makes for lots of variables in a very fluid situation. A robust commitment by the Callaghan government might commit Thatcher to an enterprise that she would find too hard to disengage from - or it could turn her off the whole thing altogether as Labour waste and ambition. Recall her commitment to deep defense cuts before the Falklands War scotched it - even arguments about national prestige or defense industry jobs might fall on deaf ears. And, of course, the European angle might be a strike against it as well.

Nonetheless, I don't mean to put you off your script. I'm just speaking to likelihoods. I'd sincerely like to see what a serious ESA manned space effort in the 1980's would actually look like.

3. I'm mostly quoting this because it's a good summary, but I do want to express my skepticism about the odds of any of the X37B conversions coming true.

Actually, I share that skepticism. I don't see what the X-37c really would provide that the vehicles already much further down the development pike today (2011) in OTL won't already (in all likelihood) do more cheaply. Perhaps the military has something in mind we don't know about? (Good luck getting funding in this environment.) Your theory about Boeing seems the most likely to me, however.

My only point was that if NASA had really been interested in a reusable controlled descent vehicle - we can argue about how wise that really is at this juncture - it would have made much more sense to pursue it later, and by divorcing payload from crew in the design. Instead, they tried to do everything at once with a super-ambitious clean sheet design.

And I agree with your larger point here:

To me, the more important lesson from all this isn't so much what Shuttle did to American spaceflight, it's about the lessons that can be taken into where spaceflight is today, and actually X37 falls on the wrong side of that lesson--it doesn't do anything better or cheaper than anything else that's already flying or being developed.

The X-37 example is instructive to me, again, in the context of an Eyes Turned Skywards scenario, where it might have made some limited sense as a successor or complement to a CSM Block III/IV for manned access to LEO in, say, the late 80's or 1990's. But NASA's access wouldn't be so deeply tied to its success. They would already have a mature expendable Apollo/Saturn family system which would have a lot more flexibility for development for both manned and unmanned payloads. NASA's eggs in the 70's and 80's wouldn't be all in one basket.

Thanks again for the comments. Looking forward to Wednesday.
 
Hello e of pi,

Thanks kindly for the extensive feedback.
I try to encourage it. Beyond keeping the TL on the front page as long as possible after a Wednesday update, it helps Truth and I check whether we're veering off the course of plausibility and points out things we sometimes didn't fully account for--doing the MM for III+ to take advantage of the margin on Saturn 1C was a reader suggestion, we were planning something similar but it was going to be saved for the Block IV. We realized we had the margin and that the tech actually wasn't as bad as we'd been thinking which people ITTL would certainly see, so Block III+ happened.

You make an excellent point about the return to investment going to British aerospace - one that would be made in Parliament at debate time, to be sure. That might well turn the tide, if British participation is large enough to supply the needed margin. (And it could be.)

It's just that...30% seems like a push to me. I'd have to go back and look at the budget figures again...but that's a sizable chunk we're counting on the UK to supply, even with the (sunk cost) British booster contribution. And it provides no margin for error.
ESA's budget right now is pretty much exactly 30% of NASA's, though I don't know the history of that figure. If you have more solid numbers over time, any assistance would be greatly appreciated. On ELDO, France and Britain were roughly matching each other's fund IIRC, so that'd have a pretty serious impact. Even in the modern budget that'd be an increase of 17% and almost a billion USD, and the funding is much less centered on the core countries these days if I recall.

Politics enter into all this so intrusively, and that makes for lots of variables in a very fluid situation. A robust commitment by the Callaghan government might commit Thatcher to an enterprise that she would find too hard to disengage from - or it could turn her off the whole thing altogether as Labour waste and ambition. Recall her commitment to deep defense cuts before the Falklands War scotched it - even arguments about national prestige or defense industry jobs might fall on deaf ears. And, of course, the European angle might be a strike against it as well.
Politics, my old enemy, we meet again. I'll talk about it with Truth, though be forewarned if there's a plausible way forward for significant space funding in any situation, we're probably going to take it. A robust commitment that Thatcher gets stuck with might just do that trick. :)

Nonetheless, I don't mean to put you off your script. I'm just speaking to likelihoods. I'd sincerely like to see what a serious ESA manned space effort in the 1980's would actually look like.
Well, Bahamut-225's been gearing up for an ESA-focused alternate history, so I'd hate to steal all his thunder. Besides, going off-script isn't bad if the script was bad to begin with and the change is better--looking back at our original sketch of how this TL would go, we've already been driven pretty far off it when our commitment to be plausible whenever possible ran up against ideas that looked better in outline than in detail.
 
I try to encourage it. Beyond keeping the TL on the front page as long as possible after a Wednesday update, it helps Truth and I check whether we're veering off the course of plausibility and points out things we sometimes didn't fully account for--doing the MM for III+ to take advantage of the margin on Saturn 1C was a reader suggestion, we were planning something similar but it was going to be saved for the Block IV. We realized we had the margin and that the tech actually wasn't as bad as we'd been thinking which people ITTL would certainly see, so Block III+ happened.

Ah. One of the many upshots to reader feedback.


ESA's budget right now is pretty much exactly 30% of NASA's, though I don't know the history of that figure. If you have more solid numbers over time, any assistance would be greatly appreciated. On ELDO, France and Britain were roughly matching each other's fund IIRC, so that'd have a pretty serious impact. Even in the modern budget that'd be an increase of 17% and almost a billion USD, and the funding is much less centered on the core countries these days if I recall.

OTL, UK and French spending on ELDO & ESRO was about the same initially IIRC, but UK involvement collapsed with the failure of Europa. By the time of Ariane Development OTL, the UK had all but abandoned the whole thing. In short, a lot of money in, and no return. Kinda the UK history of things post-WWII.


Politics, my old enemy, we meet again. I'll talk about it with Truth, though be forewarned if there's a plausible way forward for significant space funding in any situation, we're probably going to take it. A robust commitment that Thatcher gets stuck with might just do that trick. :)

It'll have to. Though I wonder how this can affect things. Given Thatcher's tendancies, I'd expect to see some push for greater Private Sector involvement, at least in the UK.


Well, Bahamut-225's been gearing up for an ESA-focused alternate history, so I'd hate to steal all his thunder. Besides, going off-script isn't bad if the script was bad to begin with and the change is better--looking back at our original sketch of how this TL would go, we've already been driven pretty far off it when our commitment to be plausible whenever possible ran up against ideas that looked better in outline than in detail.

Thanks. But you have been giving me quite a bit of help. :)

So you've veered some way off the original development? That does happen once the details are worked through. Something I've been learning myself.
 
OTL, UK and French spending on ELDO & ESRO was about the same initially IIRC, but UK involvement collapsed with the failure of Europa. By the time of Ariane Development OTL, the UK had all but abandoned the whole thing. In short, a lot of money in, and no return. Kinda the UK history of things post-WWII.
I strongly suspect that the British would back away from the programme iATL, although not out as iOTL. Keeping engine development and production would make a lot of sense for them, and I see them keeping that up, but maybe the actual first stage might be built by e.g. the French.

So... I'd guess that the British might ease back to ... 1/3 the French contribution? Wild guess. Maybe half.
 
OTL, UK and French spending on ELDO & ESRO was about the same initially IIRC, but UK involvement collapsed with the failure of Europa. By the time of Ariane Development OTL, the UK had all but abandoned the whole thing. In short, a lot of money in, and no return. Kinda the UK history of things post-WWII.
I strongly suspect that the British would back away from the programme iATL, although not out as iOTL. Keeping engine development and production would make a lot of sense for them, and I see them keeping that up, but maybe the actual first stage might be built by e.g. the French.
Bahamut, that's a pretty good summary of OTL, though I think both of our TL's are banking in some extent on the UK not pulling out if Europa works, yours more than ours perhaps.

Dathi, there's two things going on. One is the funding side, the other is the actual design of the vehicle and the allocation of contracts. Britain essentially pushed for ELDO to get some use out of the Blue Streak which they spent so much effort on, only to cancel as a missile. Given that they're getting that here, I think they're not going to be scaling down their contribution. evem if they do, the British companies involved with Europa would have more experience with kerolox stages, and if ESA comes calling I can't see Hawker-Siddly (or British Aerospace after that merger) saying, "No thank you, we'd rather not have that money." Thus, it's also politically better to spend the money using the "It's coming right back to us as jobs" defense I think than to try and cut it off entirely, particularly given what they were doing at the time to save any semblance of a British aerospace industry.

It'll have to. Though I wonder how this can affect things. Given Thatcher's tendancies, I'd expect to see some push for greater Private Sector involvement, at least in the UK.
Not much to be done on the private sector side other than sell Europa 3 as a commercial lifter, and ESA'll already be thinking about that. Trying to grab some of the comsat construction business is another possibility.
So you've veered some way off the original development? That does happen once the details are worked through. Something I've been learning myself.
Quite a bit, some of which is already reflected in older posts, but the most serious alterations are in posts that are written but still in the buffer.
 
Not much to be done on the private sector side other than sell Europa 3 as a commercial lifter, and ESA'll already be thinking about that. Trying to grab some of the comsat construction business is another possibility.

Ah. So it seems that Europa 3 will become the Commercial LV of choice, like Ariane 4 OTL. Should be interesting to see what becomes of it. I'd expect to see at least some success. Being a 'Man-Rated' LV could well give it a PR bosst in that particular, a reason why Soyuz LV OTL is operated in that regard.

And it looks like this will pass the 12,000 view mark before the next update. So congrats on that milestone E-of-Pi & Truth-is-Life.
 
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