Certainly many in the British government will be in sympathy. I'd say they look the other way to what's going on, provided the U.S. and the brokers involved don't create a political embarrassment for the Labour government.
Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72
- Thread starter Drew
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Certainly many in the British government will be in sympathy. I'd say they look the other way to what's going on, provided the U.S. and the brokers involved don't create a political embarrassment for the Labour government.
Might be. The Reagan is a "pinko" candidate of '76 might resonate with the Libertarians.
So long as His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular avoids attacking Tanzania, chances are that he is still in power. Without outside intervention it is unlikely that he would be overthrown, as all positions of power were held by people personally loyal to him, and his bodyguard were made up of Palestinians unlikely to betray him.
So long as he lives he will continue to be an embarrassment to the Soviet Union. Without Pol Pot and the "Killing Fields," Amin may draw increased attention from Conservative media, becoming their favorite bête noire of the Left: a genocidal, possibly cannibalistic stooge of International Communism in Africa.
Speaking of which, I wonder how Suslov and co. view the situation in central Africa. With Mobutu being lately in an expansionist mood, they could very well see Amin as "their" Big Man in that region, a crucial asset in their fight against "Western Imperialism." After all, they were willing to embrace the fascist Turkes Regime, to say nothing of the equally maniacal Gaddafi.
Final thought: I imagine that, eventually, there will be plenty of photos coming out of impeccably manufactured East German weapons being used to murder Ugandans on a massive scale. Add a few German "advisers" standing around in their field-gray uniforms and jackboots at the scene, and you will have a fine PR disaster for the GDR. Especially when you have a leader prone to spontaneously and effusively praising the Führer and his "great works."
Not a bad overall scenario for this TL. Suslov and friends would indeed be looking for puppets to bolster their capability in Central Africa, not just against Mobutu but also to because in this TL they don't have Ethiopia either.
wikipedia said:
In this TL, with added Soviet pressure and perhaps a few more East German advisors to apply pressure (and no competing PRC influences for Tanzania to fall back on), let's say that Amin did not chase the mutineers across the border, and Nyerere, under pressure from various patrons, expelled the anti-Amin officers (not necessarily back to Uganda though). As a consequence the Ugandan-Tanzanian War is averted (for TTL early 1979 anyway).
No doubt Amin would be regarded as a monster, but there are other competitors in this TL and plenty of distractions.
Colonel Qhaddafi may even as served as the mediator/briber-in-chief to help keep this conflict from breaking out at this time. Now that Qhaddafi has been re-buffed by the Arabian Revolution, and having had his military knuckles rapped by Egypt, I'd say that he will figure even more prominently in terms of a some-time Soviet bagman in Central Africa, even as he builds his own Empire up based on oil wealth.
The Soviets might not like him co-operating with the PRC on nuclear technology, but as mentioned before there could be intelligence benefits in it for the Soviets.
Antipater said:
I remember reading in Markus Wolf's book his reflections about how East German "advisors" were greeted with enthusiastic cheers of "Heil Hitler!" when they traveled in the Arab world.
As a German Communist (and son of a German Jew) who had been persecuted by the Nazis he remarked that it caused him to girt his teeth, but over time he came to accept it as background noise.
I suppose the critical weakening of the British & French Empires in the Middle East due to WW2 & post 1948 Hitler's mass-murder of the Jews help his image in the Arab states...
Anyway will the Soviets try to rack up pressure on South Africa & Zaire in order to make up for the ‘’loss’’ of Ethiopia?
Anyway will the Soviets try to rack up pressure on South Africa & Zaire in order to make up for the ‘’loss’’ of Ethiopia?
Some thoughts.
Perhaps with Dellums out of HUD, Wallace might offer the position to Jack Kemp, who in our timeline held that post in the 1989-1993 years. Since he is abandoning any pretense of appealing to the far-left anyway in favor of building cross-party appeal (what with Dick Lamm and all), he might think it's worth trying. Of course, Kemp might not accept, even though he's currently out of office, and you might have plans for him.
I somehow doubt we've heard the last of Goldwater Jr., considering he got a lot of build up.
Finally, Reagan. It struck me that, without resorting to something cliche like a death or illness, he is almost certainly going to run for the Republican nomination, almost certainly going to win it, and going against a divided left (the right would go solidly behind him, the only conservative third party candidate I can think of getting traction is Jack Williams as the Libertarian candidate), has probably a greater than 50% chance of becoming President.
Now, this isn't a bad thing at all. Most timelines feel the need to do something alternate for the sake of being alternate, but if it made more sense to follow OTL on this little bit, it would be a clever twist.
Then again, we don't know what you have planned, so let's just wait and see what happens.
Eagerly await more!
Perhaps with Dellums out of HUD, Wallace might offer the position to Jack Kemp, who in our timeline held that post in the 1989-1993 years. Since he is abandoning any pretense of appealing to the far-left anyway in favor of building cross-party appeal (what with Dick Lamm and all), he might think it's worth trying. Of course, Kemp might not accept, even though he's currently out of office, and you might have plans for him.
I somehow doubt we've heard the last of Goldwater Jr., considering he got a lot of build up.
Finally, Reagan. It struck me that, without resorting to something cliche like a death or illness, he is almost certainly going to run for the Republican nomination, almost certainly going to win it, and going against a divided left (the right would go solidly behind him, the only conservative third party candidate I can think of getting traction is Jack Williams as the Libertarian candidate), has probably a greater than 50% chance of becoming President.
Now, this isn't a bad thing at all. Most timelines feel the need to do something alternate for the sake of being alternate, but if it made more sense to follow OTL on this little bit, it would be a clever twist.
Then again, we don't know what you have planned, so let's just wait and see what happens.
Eagerly await more!
Okay, with the direction the timeline has been going, I'm hesitant to offer this contribution, but I may as well try. The plot is somewhat silly, yes, but don?t read too much into that- read the development story, to see what I'm getting at. Read the footnotes as well, for more info, and commentary at the bottom. Drew can take or leave this, but here it is:
---
June 8, 1979
Quest 3000 AD, directed by John Landis and distributed by Universal Pictures, is released.
Arguably the first film specifically marketed as a "science fantasy", it is a space opera set in the future, but with heavy "sword and sorcery" undertones. The synopsis goes as follows: a young man named John Corman (Stephen Collins), living in a dystopian future Earth with rampant crime, poverty, and pollution, is visited by a strange old man named Jorwyn (Christopher Lee), with strange powers. The otherworldly visitor tells John that the Galactic Federation, which Earth is a backwater member of, and which he represents, is imperiled by the rise of the evil Dark Lord Zorak (voiced by Orson Welles), who is gathering strength, and his armies of Orks. John can help because his ancestor defeated Zorak in the ancient past when he threatened Earth with a magic amulet (flashback to a Medieval knight thrusting a glowing red gem into the face of a hooded man), which the boy still has in his family, passed down from generation to generation. Indeed, he has it in his pocket during his encounter with Jorwyn.
Just then, Zorak's armies attack Earth. Fleets of spaceships are shown in orbit, shooting at our planet (stock footage of nuclear detonations are shown to signify damage to Earth). Laser-brandishing Orks attacks John's hometown, and a battle between them and a small garrison of Earth soldiers ensues. In the chaos, Jorwyn tries to spirit away John and his friends, the roguish Huey (Samuel L. Jackson) and the impish little green man Blizzit (Mike Edmonds). However, they discover that the Orks have occupied his spaceship. John's ring, however, transports them in a flash of red light to safety. They discover they are in a starport on the Jovian moon of Ganymede. Here they meet a contact of Jorwyn's, the Terminator-class android "Graysteel" (Arnold Schwarzenegger), and are recovered by agents of the Federation and whisked away to the capitol world of Oberon, populated by beautiful, fair-skinned natives.
Here John is assigned his team to guard him while he goes to Zorak's "Star Citadel" to kill him: Graysteel and Jorwyn, the gregarious warrior Raxar (Brian Blessed) of the Saurian race and the graceful Oberonese starpilot Xon (David Gautreaux).After an ill-fated detour to the planet Yugoth, home of the "Saucer Men", where Jorwyn is killed by a giant reptilian monster, the group manages to find Zorak?s space citadel and, after beaming aboard and fighting their way to his private chamber, John kills him with the amulet, saving the universe.
The film had a complicated production history. Development began when movie writer Dan O'Bannon had lunch with director Steven Spielberg to brainstorm potential projects in early 1977. Both were avid science fiction fans (O'Bannon had written the screenplay for John Carpenter's 1974 film Dark Star, while Spielberg had directed a UFO-themed feature, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, then in post production [1]) and shared their laments that by-and-large most studios were hesitant to commit to sci-fi projects in recent years. While talking, Spielberg let it slip that he had read a script his friend, the late director George Lucas, had been pitching to various studios entitled Stars Wars, which he told O'Bannon was "fantastic". "And he told me the kicker was it wasn't set in the future", O'Bannon later recalled, "but 'a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far way'-and that's what interested me."
The quasi-fantasy feel of the aborted film Spielberg described to him made O;Bannon feel that, if he was able to bridge science fiction and fantasy together into a screenplay, the resulting film could be quite successful. He had developed an interest in the fantasy genre in recent years after playing some of the Dungeons and Dragons role-playing game, which had become quite popular in the bad 1970's economy to its escapist element [2], and had always been a fan of H.P. Lovecraft. O'Bannon teamed up with fantasy writer Peter S. Beagle and developed a screenplay that was, in Beagle's words, "your typical fantasy setting, wizards, orcs and all... in space". In particular, much of the plot was more-or-less lifted from the Lord of the Rings novels. O'Bannon would later say "I didn't steal from anyone (in writing Quest 3000 AD). I stole from everyone!"The original O'Bannon/Beagle screenplay, the one which was shopped to studios, was somewhat different than the resulting product, with more cliché fantasy elements, and was titled Quest. When Quest was first pitched around, the reception from studios was predictably cold. However, bolstered by the success of the animated Star Wars film and Spielberg's Close Encounter of the Third Kind [3], it caught more traction. Universal Studios purchased the screenplay and gave it a tentative green light with an initial $8.5 million budget (considered quite excessive in the conservative film industry of the 1970's).
O'Bannon had originally assumed he was to direct Quest, however, Universal wanted a more experienced director at the helm. After negotiations broke down with Soles director Ridley Scott, John Landis got the job after reading the script and lobbying for the project. Landis, who had just finished his work on National Lampoon's Animal House, which would go on to be a great success, had not liked some aspects of Quest he found "pretentious", but wanted to make the film so he could make a science fiction film with an epic scale. During the worst days of the 1970's Depression, when studios were re-releasing films from earlier decades, Landis had noticed that monster and sci-fi features, such as 1933's King Kong, the early Godzilla movies, and Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers serials, and the 1950's flying saucer B-movies, were among the crowd favorites- yet studios were investing little in making new movies of that variety, which Landis found "ludicrous". He wanted to make a movie to homage all of the science fiction films of decades past. After taking a week to work in new elements to the script to make it more to his liking (for instance, changing the time period from the pst to the future, changing the inhabitants of planet Yugoth from "space goblins" to stereotypical grey aliens, and changing the name to Quest 3000 AD to give it "a more sci-fi feel"), Landis started production and continued at a quick pace.
Rick Berman, who had worked with Landis on his debut feature Schlock, was hired to develop the alien and creature effects for Quest 3000 AD, creating the signature bestial, bright green look of the Ork warriors. In addition to the many original creatures he created for the Ganymede Starport scene, he also bought, borrowed, begged for, and even in a few cases stole some alien and monster costumes from classic films, such as It! The Terror from Beyond Space and Invasion of the Saucer Men, and touched them up for use in the scene. The titular ape from Schlock would even make an appearance. Berman would win an honorary Academy Award for his efforts. Much of the special effects team from Close Encounters was hired for the film, and though Landis would become frustrated several times by their inability to exactly create the effects he wanted for the shots with spaceships, the results were still, groundbreaking for the time, and would result in another honorary Oscar for the film. While the O'Bannon script called for a "quasi-fantastic" look for the costumes and sets, Landis would ignore that and go for a "neo-50's" feel for everything outside the Earth scenes, looking like the future from the point of view of that decade, and somewhat like the design from the original Star Trek series.
Landis felt his main job in making this film was "to show people that entertainment didn't have to wallow in the bad stuff that came from the bad times. I wanted to reinforce positive thoughts in this picture, that good could still triumph over evil. In the end, I wanted to give people an escape from their shitty everyday lives". The movie starts off in a future Earth which heavily draws from the earlier film Soylent Green, to evoke the current "bad times", but as they left Earth and went to more fantastic settings, the escapist element slowly set in, giving the audience that "escape". "It really is a testament to the power of cinema that a movie can do that", Landis would go on to say. The studio was hesitant that such a "sunny, rosy" movie would resonate with audiences. However, the film became fairly successful, grossing over $100 million at the US box office. Its success would help the live action Star Wars film see the light of day, as well as eventually reviving the Star Trek franchise and, indeed, science fiction as a genre. [4]
[1] I'm pretty sure the implication Drew has been giving, as far as movies go, is "if I didn't mention it, it went as OTL", so there's that.
[2] An extrapolation, which can be taken or left out, doesn't bother me if it is. Would be fun to see the CVM going after Gary Gygax, though.
[3] An extrapolation based partly on the logic from the first point here, and from when Drew said there was an animated Star Wars film. Would like to hear more on that one.
[4] Drew can take, leave, or modify the stuff in blue.
So yeah, this is the contribution. I figured it would work because some film would have to come along around this time to get the "tools and talent", so to speak, re-invested in Hollywood. James Cameron, David Fincher, Peter Jackson, Roland Emmerlich... all these guys became directors at least partly based on Star Wars and, while this film isn't really near as successful as Star Wars, even though it made money for the studio, would get these kinds of people interested in films, which down the line would be a thing of ease for the author. I figured the special effects work here could "pave the way", so to speak, for a later, more successful film (such as a live action Star Wars, if Drew goes that route
But in the end, this is Drew's work, he can reject all of this, take parts, or even most of it. Just want to get this out of my head.
Thoughts?
---
June 8, 1979
Quest 3000 AD, directed by John Landis and distributed by Universal Pictures, is released.
Arguably the first film specifically marketed as a "science fantasy", it is a space opera set in the future, but with heavy "sword and sorcery" undertones. The synopsis goes as follows: a young man named John Corman (Stephen Collins), living in a dystopian future Earth with rampant crime, poverty, and pollution, is visited by a strange old man named Jorwyn (Christopher Lee), with strange powers. The otherworldly visitor tells John that the Galactic Federation, which Earth is a backwater member of, and which he represents, is imperiled by the rise of the evil Dark Lord Zorak (voiced by Orson Welles), who is gathering strength, and his armies of Orks. John can help because his ancestor defeated Zorak in the ancient past when he threatened Earth with a magic amulet (flashback to a Medieval knight thrusting a glowing red gem into the face of a hooded man), which the boy still has in his family, passed down from generation to generation. Indeed, he has it in his pocket during his encounter with Jorwyn.
Just then, Zorak's armies attack Earth. Fleets of spaceships are shown in orbit, shooting at our planet (stock footage of nuclear detonations are shown to signify damage to Earth). Laser-brandishing Orks attacks John's hometown, and a battle between them and a small garrison of Earth soldiers ensues. In the chaos, Jorwyn tries to spirit away John and his friends, the roguish Huey (Samuel L. Jackson) and the impish little green man Blizzit (Mike Edmonds). However, they discover that the Orks have occupied his spaceship. John's ring, however, transports them in a flash of red light to safety. They discover they are in a starport on the Jovian moon of Ganymede. Here they meet a contact of Jorwyn's, the Terminator-class android "Graysteel" (Arnold Schwarzenegger), and are recovered by agents of the Federation and whisked away to the capitol world of Oberon, populated by beautiful, fair-skinned natives.
Here John is assigned his team to guard him while he goes to Zorak's "Star Citadel" to kill him: Graysteel and Jorwyn, the gregarious warrior Raxar (Brian Blessed) of the Saurian race and the graceful Oberonese starpilot Xon (David Gautreaux).After an ill-fated detour to the planet Yugoth, home of the "Saucer Men", where Jorwyn is killed by a giant reptilian monster, the group manages to find Zorak?s space citadel and, after beaming aboard and fighting their way to his private chamber, John kills him with the amulet, saving the universe.
The film had a complicated production history. Development began when movie writer Dan O'Bannon had lunch with director Steven Spielberg to brainstorm potential projects in early 1977. Both were avid science fiction fans (O'Bannon had written the screenplay for John Carpenter's 1974 film Dark Star, while Spielberg had directed a UFO-themed feature, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, then in post production [1]) and shared their laments that by-and-large most studios were hesitant to commit to sci-fi projects in recent years. While talking, Spielberg let it slip that he had read a script his friend, the late director George Lucas, had been pitching to various studios entitled Stars Wars, which he told O'Bannon was "fantastic". "And he told me the kicker was it wasn't set in the future", O'Bannon later recalled, "but 'a long time ago, in a galaxy far, far way'-and that's what interested me."
The quasi-fantasy feel of the aborted film Spielberg described to him made O;Bannon feel that, if he was able to bridge science fiction and fantasy together into a screenplay, the resulting film could be quite successful. He had developed an interest in the fantasy genre in recent years after playing some of the Dungeons and Dragons role-playing game, which had become quite popular in the bad 1970's economy to its escapist element [2], and had always been a fan of H.P. Lovecraft. O'Bannon teamed up with fantasy writer Peter S. Beagle and developed a screenplay that was, in Beagle's words, "your typical fantasy setting, wizards, orcs and all... in space". In particular, much of the plot was more-or-less lifted from the Lord of the Rings novels. O'Bannon would later say "I didn't steal from anyone (in writing Quest 3000 AD). I stole from everyone!"The original O'Bannon/Beagle screenplay, the one which was shopped to studios, was somewhat different than the resulting product, with more cliché fantasy elements, and was titled Quest. When Quest was first pitched around, the reception from studios was predictably cold. However, bolstered by the success of the animated Star Wars film and Spielberg's Close Encounter of the Third Kind [3], it caught more traction. Universal Studios purchased the screenplay and gave it a tentative green light with an initial $8.5 million budget (considered quite excessive in the conservative film industry of the 1970's).
O'Bannon had originally assumed he was to direct Quest, however, Universal wanted a more experienced director at the helm. After negotiations broke down with Soles director Ridley Scott, John Landis got the job after reading the script and lobbying for the project. Landis, who had just finished his work on National Lampoon's Animal House, which would go on to be a great success, had not liked some aspects of Quest he found "pretentious", but wanted to make the film so he could make a science fiction film with an epic scale. During the worst days of the 1970's Depression, when studios were re-releasing films from earlier decades, Landis had noticed that monster and sci-fi features, such as 1933's King Kong, the early Godzilla movies, and Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers serials, and the 1950's flying saucer B-movies, were among the crowd favorites- yet studios were investing little in making new movies of that variety, which Landis found "ludicrous". He wanted to make a movie to homage all of the science fiction films of decades past. After taking a week to work in new elements to the script to make it more to his liking (for instance, changing the time period from the pst to the future, changing the inhabitants of planet Yugoth from "space goblins" to stereotypical grey aliens, and changing the name to Quest 3000 AD to give it "a more sci-fi feel"), Landis started production and continued at a quick pace.
Rick Berman, who had worked with Landis on his debut feature Schlock, was hired to develop the alien and creature effects for Quest 3000 AD, creating the signature bestial, bright green look of the Ork warriors. In addition to the many original creatures he created for the Ganymede Starport scene, he also bought, borrowed, begged for, and even in a few cases stole some alien and monster costumes from classic films, such as It! The Terror from Beyond Space and Invasion of the Saucer Men, and touched them up for use in the scene. The titular ape from Schlock would even make an appearance. Berman would win an honorary Academy Award for his efforts. Much of the special effects team from Close Encounters was hired for the film, and though Landis would become frustrated several times by their inability to exactly create the effects he wanted for the shots with spaceships, the results were still, groundbreaking for the time, and would result in another honorary Oscar for the film. While the O'Bannon script called for a "quasi-fantastic" look for the costumes and sets, Landis would ignore that and go for a "neo-50's" feel for everything outside the Earth scenes, looking like the future from the point of view of that decade, and somewhat like the design from the original Star Trek series.
Landis felt his main job in making this film was "to show people that entertainment didn't have to wallow in the bad stuff that came from the bad times. I wanted to reinforce positive thoughts in this picture, that good could still triumph over evil. In the end, I wanted to give people an escape from their shitty everyday lives". The movie starts off in a future Earth which heavily draws from the earlier film Soylent Green, to evoke the current "bad times", but as they left Earth and went to more fantastic settings, the escapist element slowly set in, giving the audience that "escape". "It really is a testament to the power of cinema that a movie can do that", Landis would go on to say. The studio was hesitant that such a "sunny, rosy" movie would resonate with audiences. However, the film became fairly successful, grossing over $100 million at the US box office. Its success would help the live action Star Wars film see the light of day, as well as eventually reviving the Star Trek franchise and, indeed, science fiction as a genre. [4]
[1] I'm pretty sure the implication Drew has been giving, as far as movies go, is "if I didn't mention it, it went as OTL", so there's that.
[2] An extrapolation, which can be taken or left out, doesn't bother me if it is. Would be fun to see the CVM going after Gary Gygax, though.
[3] An extrapolation based partly on the logic from the first point here, and from when Drew said there was an animated Star Wars film. Would like to hear more on that one.
[4] Drew can take, leave, or modify the stuff in blue.
So yeah, this is the contribution. I figured it would work because some film would have to come along around this time to get the "tools and talent", so to speak, re-invested in Hollywood. James Cameron, David Fincher, Peter Jackson, Roland Emmerlich... all these guys became directors at least partly based on Star Wars and, while this film isn't really near as successful as Star Wars, even though it made money for the studio, would get these kinds of people interested in films, which down the line would be a thing of ease for the author. I figured the special effects work here could "pave the way", so to speak, for a later, more successful film (such as a live action Star Wars, if Drew goes that route
But in the end, this is Drew's work, he can reject all of this, take parts, or even most of it. Just want to get this out of my head.
Thoughts?
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Yes, this could work as it offers a sort of escapist fare that audiences would welcome in a depression era, especially since Lucas' Star Wars hasn't been made yet as a major motion picture (though the animation still exists). CE3K would likely have been made, if only to get more high concept product out there and as a marketing tool to win back audiences who might have been going to theaters less during the depression.
So, I'd say this is okay.
Kemp won't want anything to do with Wallace. His public career is not over yet.
Ex-Governor Goldwater is still around, and I'm sure he's ready to fight the good fight. He might even drift into the Libertarian movement, giving Ron Paul a run for leadership of it. Maybe...
Reagan will be looking forward to re-match with Wallace in 1980, but first he will have to persuade his party that he an win.
Things could change by 1980; events could squeeze Reagan to the margins or ...
More coming.
Yes and yes. it's the sort of light movie that would do well during the depression - especially with the Bandit being an outlaw sticking it to the system. President Wallace might even seek to associate himself with this sort of NASCAR demographic film.
You might even see a different kind of sequel - a Smokey and the Bandit take on the fat cats or Smokey and the bandit take on the KGB etc.
Yeah, I could see Goldwater the Younger still mad at Reagan for not backing him up enough as Governor, what with the whole meeting telling him to tone it down with the unions.
Another idea for a crossover to the Libertarians: while the GOP may lose Goldwater 2.0, Jack Williams, and Ron Paul to the new party, I could actually see Democrat Georgia Congressman Larry McDonald maybe joining as well. He was a big small government activist and an avid Austrian economist supporter, as well as a member of the John Birch Society.
Sand in your sheets
January 1, 1979
United Nations Secretary General Kurt Waldheim heralds the start of the International Year of the Child. Many musicians donate to the Music for UNICEF Concert fund including ABBA, who write the song "Chiquitita" to commemorate the event.
The Canton of Jura comes into existence as the twenty-sixth canton of Switzerland, being formed from the predominantly French-speaking Catholic part of the Canton of Bern.
January 4, 1979
The State of Ohio agrees to pay $675,000 to families of the dead and injured in the Kent State shootings.
On a state visit to Cuba Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Suslov announces that the Soviet Union will begin building a large naval base near the American naval base at Guantanamo, Cuba. This base will include facilities for landing and taking-off of long range aircraft. The United States immediately protests this action. The contingent of Marines and Naval aircraft at Guantanamo Bay is increased.
January 6, 1979
President Wallace: “It sounds to me like Suslov wants us to invade Cuba; that’s sure the message I’m gettin’. I’m thinking I may have to do the job that Kennedy couldn’t do in sixty-one.”
U.S. Secretary of Defense Graham Claytor orders military police services to end investigations of suspected homosexual members in the U.S. Armed Forces.
January 7, 1979
Suslov: “The American President’s latest comment can only be regarded as the worst kind of war mongering. Let no one doubt that the Soviet people stand behind our Cuban comrades and that we will defend the Cuban revolution against any and all forms of imperialist aggression from anywhere, and especially from the United States.”
January 8, 1979
The French tanker Betelgeuse explodes at the Gulf Oil terminal at Bantry, Ireland; 50 are killed.
Argentina and Chile sign the Beagle Canal Accord. Due to Argentina’s failure in Operation Soberania the terms heavily favour Chile, which causes resentment in Argentina. Around this time it is revealed that Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador were all warned by the Chilean government not to interfere, lest they face reprisals. Chilean diplomats convinced leaders in these three countries that they knew enough about Argentine plans that there would never be any question of an Argentine victory.
January 9, 1979
The Music for UNICEF Concert is held at the United Nations General Assembly to raise money for UNICEF and promote the Year of the Child. It is broadcast the following day in the United States and around the world. Hosted by The Bee Gees, other performers include Donna Summer, ABBA, Rod Stewart and Earth, Wind & Fire. A soundtrack album is later released.
In its holding on Colautti v. Franklin, 439 U.S. 379, the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down (5-4) a Pennsylvania law requiring doctors performing an abortion to try to preserve lives of potentially viable foetuses. Majority: Blackmun, joined by Brennan, Stewart, Marshall and Powell. Dissent: White, joined by Burger, Rehnquist and Kennedy.
January 12, 1979
LA's Hillside Strangler, Kenneth Bianchi, arrested in Bellingham, Washington.
January 14, 1979
Sen. Jimmy Carter (D-GA) proposes that Martin Luther King’s birthday become a national holiday. President Wallace declines to endorse the measure.
January 19, 1979
Former U.S. Attorney General John N. Mitchell is released on parole after 19 months at a federal prison in Alabama.
U.S. satellite intelligence note an increased presence of Soviet ships in Cuban harbours.
January 21, 1979
The price of gold approaches $1,000 per troy ounce.
January 29, 1979
Brenda Ann Spencer opens fire at a school in San Diego, California, killing 2 faculty members and wounding 8 students. Her justification for the action, "I don't like Mondays," inspired the Boomtown Rats to make a song of the same name.
CBS News Televsion interview between Roger Mudd and former President Richard Nixon. Nixon is promoting a new book called The Watergate Myth :A Deception That Hides the Real Crimes of the 1972 Election.
Mudd: "Yet you have to be clear that - your previous comments about it aside - there was sustained law breaking by you and your suboridnates. A jury convicted you on that basis - they concluded as a matter of fact that you were invovled in obstruciton of justice - and the appeals courts upheld them."
RMN: "The jury, the courts, didn't have all the facts, in part because we didn't know everything, and couldn't present everything. But you've seen in the recent revelations, in A Democrat's Watergate , for instance , and in other investigations, the illegal activites of the McKeithen campaign."
Mudd: "Is that to say that because the Democrats did it too, it was all right?"
RMN:"No, I'm arguing that what happened was that the McKeithen campaign used illegal tactics to try and undermine the legitimate government of the United States, which effectively they did through their conduct of the election. The result, which seriously threatened the stability of our nation by leaving the Presidency weakened, and open to challenge, for nearly a year afterward, was no different than an act of espionage by a foreign power. My argument is that Governor McKeithen did more than pull a few dirty tricks, he and his Democrat cronies engaged in a form of treason, in as much as they levied a kind of war against the legitimate government."
Mudd: "So you are equating election year politics with treason?"
RMN: "In an election it is legitimate to debate policy, to discuss the direction our country should take. You can even challenge the character of the candidates - that's expected. What happened here was so different, and so low, that it goes to an entirely different category than just politics. It was levying a covert war: don't forget, they impersonated the IRS in order to de-stabilize our effort to ne re-elected. That is a crime any way you look at it."
Mudd: "Yes, clearly it is. No one is seriously disputing that. The real question though is how you have taken it, to file a new motion in the courts, to have your conviction overturned on the basis that you were acting in defense of the country. Is that a fair statement of your position?"
RMN:"Let me be clear on that, Roger. I have argued, and will continue to do so, that we were engaged in legitimate counter-intelligence activity in response to a serious threat to the legitimate government of the United States. We knew there was a threat and were actively seeking intelligence on it, for national security, to protect the people. We failed, in that we didn't uncover the extent of the illegal behavior of the Democrats. Had we done so at the time, our whole actions would have been seen differently. The jurty that heard my case in 1975 would, if they heard this, have come to a different conclusion. I'm taking this to the courts to say that our actions on behalf of national security were justified, and to the extent that there was a real threat to our stability by a group of unscrupulous political operators who were ready to cast aside the law just to win an election, we were right to do what we did. My actions, and those of then Attorney General Mitchell, were consistent with our Constitutional duties, our sworn duties, to protect the nation and uphold the law. Those men who acted in my behalf, were equally doing their sworn duty. The argument I'm taking to the courts is that all of the convictions that have come from this - the myth that there was a Watergate crime at all - should be thrown out."
Mudd:"It's too late to prosecute Governor McKeithen though."
RMN:"Yes, but there are others from that campaign who were equally responsible, perhaps more so. I think it is past time that a special prosecutor had a good, hard look at what they did, and charged the guilty accordingly."
-------------------------------------------------
January 30, 1979
The Rhodesian Constitution is suspended. The Prime Minister, Ina Bursey and the Chiefs of Staff enact a form of direct executive rule under the term “Emergency measures.”
February 1, 1979
President Wallace does not commute the sentence of convicted bank robber Patty Hearst, who remains in prison.
February 2, 1979
President Wallace's State of the Union Address.
"Let me be clear, that the only way for our Union to regain its strength is for the ordinary, working American in every State, to get back on his or her feet and get back to work. I re-state the committment I first made in Iowa in late 1975 - my Administration stands with the little guy - the ordinary, hard working taxpayer against the special interest that would bleed them dry or keep them unemployed - and for what? The corporate interest? The bottom line? Well let me tell you, the bottom line has always been - like it says at the head of our great Constitution - the common welfare. That's the common welfare of we the people and not you the fat cats."
[Applause]
"During this session I will re-submit the Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act to this Congress for consideration and - I hope - quick passage. Let's be clear, in considering this legislation you will have a clear choice to make, between the common welfare of the American people - the voters who put you here and who are your real boss - and the fat cats who are making a mint of this economic problem and stashing it away in a bank vault, all while ordinary, hardworking Americans starve or go homeless for want of work, or because oil prices are too high. You will chose between the voters and the fat cats, and the voters will see what choice you make with your vote, and I assure you they will reward those who take their interests into account, and not those who think the fat cats deserve a special profit and the public's expense."
February 3, 1979
President Wallace’s Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act is reintroduced into Congress.
February 5, 1979
Amidst charges of U.S. covert support for the Somoza regime in Nicaragua, the House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees begin hearings as to whether the Wallace Administration has been violating Congressional ordinances in supplying military support to Somoza.
February 7, 1979
Pluto moves inside Neptune's orbit for the first time since either was known to science.
Colonel Benjedid Chadli succeeds pres Boumedienne in Algeria.
The Royal government of Laos collapses under pressure from the Pathet Lao “Green” and other internal opposition. A new Republic of Laos is formed with a government composed of technocrats, liberals and Pathet Lao “Green” leaders. The former King abdicates and goes into exile in the United States.
Pink Floyd premiered their live version of "The Wall" in Los Angeles.
Toronto Maple Leaf Darryl Sittler scores NHL record 10 pts (6 goals)
February 8, 1979
Denis Sassou-Nguesso became the President of the Republic of the Congo for the first time.
February 10 – February 16, 1979
The Cuban, Portuguese and Soviet Navies conduct joint exercises in the Mid Atlantic. They are shadowed by U.S. Navy ships.
Elvis’ first rock-and-roll evangelical crusade with the Rev. Pat Robertson as guest speaker appears on ABC Television.
Robertson: “Christians the world over are in a rapturous joy today, for they know that soon the Lord will be among them, and Jesus shall lift them up unto the Kingdom of the Father. Only the sinner and the heathen need look on the Middle East and despair in anxiety; for indeed their false world is coming to an end in a wave of fire and judgment. The war long foretold in the Book of Revelation has come to us. The Anti-Christ stands under the banner of Muslim, and he walks on the sands of Arabia. Soon the judgement shall come, and all will be judged before the Father. But fear not my friends, for this is a happy time for Christians, for soon we shall be free and glorified. Let us, therefore, pray with joy for the coming conflict, and let us rejoice in the hour of judgement and salvation.”
ABC receives a lot of complaints about this sermon by Robertson.
Elvis: “I don’t endorse what Dr. Robertson said. I think he needs to look hard at what he’s saying, and maybe chill on it a little. I’m not for war; I’m doing the work of the Prince of Peace and all I want is Peace and Christian enlightenment, man. That’s not war; I say no to war.”
February 12, 1979
Prime Minister Hissène Habré starts the Battle of N'Djamena in an attempt to overthrow Chad's President Félix Malloum.
British, Irish and Sein Fein negotiators at Ramboulliet in France begin talks on a formula for a joint-sovereignty project in Northern Ireland (Ulster). Top among the concerns of London and Dublin negotiators is the disarmament of paramilitaries under a joint commission.
Kosmos 1076, 1st Soviet oceanographic satellite, launched.
February 13, 1979
An intense windstorm strikes western Washington and sinks a 1/2-mile-long section of the Hood Canal Bridge.
February 14-18, 1979
The Battle of Sinola is a four day engagement between Rhodesian and ZPLF forces in and around Sinola in Rhodesia. The intense battle – described as an “African Stalingrad” in one newspaper – destroys the town of Sinola. ZPLF forces are finally forced to withdraw only when the Rhodesian Air Force drops mustard gas on them. There are also reports of another dirty bomb being used.
Marine Major Oliver North is questioned by the House Foreign Relations Committee about his activities in Nicaragua. North takes the fifth on several occasions, causing a stir. The result of his taking the fifth leads directly to North’s Court Martial by the Marine corps.
February 14, 1979
In Kabul, Muslim extremists are killed while attempting to kidnap the American ambassador to Afghanistan, Adolph Dubs, who survives the incident.
Following her 1972 sex reassignment surgery, musician Wendy Carlos legally changes her name from Walter. She later reveals this information in an interview in the May 1979 issue of Playboy Magazine.
In areas of the Arabia that have large concentrations of Sh'ites - especially in the oil processing areas along the Persian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia - uprisings and revolts breakout against the Revolutionary government. This is triggered in part by brutual treatment of Shias by Mutaween (Religous Police) and is also a defensive measure by many Sh'ites who make their living from the oil industry to protect their livelyhood from destruction by Sunni fanatics. Sh'ite rebels actively resist Mutaween efforts to destroy oil facilities with armed force. The situation rapidly deteriorates into one of armed conflict and chaos.
February 15, 1979
A suspected gas explosion in a Warsaw bank kills 49.
The Battle of Matagalpa. The forces of Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza backed by covert U.S. forces and Chilean paramilitary units inflict a severe defeat on the FSLN after intensive battle near the Nicaraguan city of Matagalpa. FSLN field commander Jaime Wheelock is killed in the battle.
February 17, 1979
U.S. Navy and Air Force air craft engage in bombing missions against Pathet Lao “Red” forces.
Former President Richard Nixon speaks out in favour of the U.S. providing “all-out” support for the Somoza regime, which he characterises as a “close ally in the struggle against Communist aggression in Latin America.”
February 18, 1979
The Sahara Desert experiences snow for 30 minutes.
After a lull in combat, the PRC and Pathet Lao “Red” forces re-new their offensive operations in north central Laos.
February 21, 1979
Japan launches Hakucho x-ray satellite & Corsa-B (550/580 km)
The House of Representatives votes 244 -189 to table President Wallace’s Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act and not bring it to a vote.
President Wallace: “Never has any group of so-called public servants shown the depth of their venality and indifference to the American people with such callous disregard to the people’s welfare. I have presented to them – twice now – the opportunity to share the massive accumulation of wealth by those who would exploit our crisis with the people who are suffering. How does this snake pit that passes itself off as a Congress react? Do they choose the side of the people? No, these skunks and bandits have chosen the side of the rich fat cats and given the back of their hand to the American people, who scream for justice and relief from every corner of our beleaguered nation. Well, my fellow citizens, this Congress of naves and carpetbaggers has sown the wind, and now they shall reap the whirlwind. The time has come to put the American people first and the fat cats last. The time has come to test whether a President, elected by the people and fighting for the people, shall overcome a nest of vipers elected by the people but fighting against the people. My Bible tells me that righteousness shall prevail, and so shall we, though we may have to carry the fight a thousand times, there will be a reckoning for this conniving and grasping by this petty, selfish Congress.”
Cuban efforts to mediate a broader popular front among FSLN members and other members of the anti-Somoza opposition in Nicaragua fail when the meeting is infiltrated by agents who disrupt the proceedings. A Cuban diplomat involved in the reconciliation talks is assassinated in Panama City.
February 22, 1979
Saint Lucia becomes independent of the United Kingdom.
Cuban and Soviet aircraft fly close to the Florida cost, resulting in a series of alerts.
Billy Martin named manager of Oakland A's.
Cleveland Metroparks Zoo's Primate & Cat Building is dedicated.
Despite pressure from the White House, the Congressional leadership delays hearings on the candidacy of Governor Lamm for the Vice Presidency. They are focused on the Nicaragua hearings.
Agnew On Point
SA: “I’m pleased tonight to have as my guest former President Richard Nixon, with who I served as Vice President over four years. It’s good to see you looking so well, Mr. President.”
RMN: “Thank-you, Ted. It is good to be here.”
SA: "First I have to say, I've read The Watergate Myth, and I must say, you've proven what we knew all along, that this Watergate business was nothing but a conspiracy against us by the Democrat Party, and that your actions were not only legitimate, but Constitutional."
RMN:"Exactly. you know, when I said 'if the President does it, then it's legal" the liberals all squirmed and expressed their ourage at me: how dare Nixon say such a thing? He was convicted by a jury. Well, that jury didn't have the facts, and now that they are out, we can see who the real crooks are."
SA:"Yes, the larcenous liberal and nattering nabobs have to answer for what they did. They couldn't beat us at the polls, so they resorted to criminality. What you did, that was protecting the nation from a conspiracy - a criminal conspiracy, that would have destroyed our liberty."
RMN:"It's unfortunate that some men put their lust for power above principle, isn't it? They couldn't stand the idea of losing to us again, so they broke the law to try and steal the election."
SA:"Fortunately, it didn't work. I must say, you didn't invovle me at the time, but I would have been more than ready to join you and the others in this fight to save our democracy."
RMN: "I know you would have done your part, had it been necessary. As it was, you did many important things for the campaign, and that helped in keeping McKeithen from seizing the Presidency outright."
SA: “The Democrat Party's arrogance and venality didn't stop with their loss in 1972. You’ve recently spoken out against the administration of General Secretary Wallace, denouncing his red policies as calling them destructive to America.”
RMN:”Well, Ted, let me be clear on this point. I have felt compelled to speak out because President Wallace’s actions in office are undermining the security of our country. In the economy and in foreign policy, he is taking us down the wrong path.”
SA:”Let’s take the economy. Would you agree that – Wallace is wrecking the free enterprise economy with his socialist inspired theft of free market property?”
RMN:”Well, Ted, I don’t want to overstate the case. This country has been in a very difficult position – in terms of the economy – since about a year after I left the Presidency. As you know we’ve been through several oil price crises, and that has caused a lot of problems. That occurred before President Wallace took office. What George Wallace has done, especially in the last year, is aggravate the uncertainty that prevents a recovery...”
SA: “With his Socialist polices?”
RMN:”With his often conflicting pronouncements, and his populist pronouncements, which cause a chill to come down over the markets and the business sector, which is already uncertain. It’s not so much that he has done anything – most of his ideas have been rejected by the Congress, and that was before we won a Republican majority in the House last November – but it his continued firebrand rhetoric that is making markets nervous.”
SA:”But, Mr. President, wouldn’t you agree, that his attempts to steal profits from our free market oil producers is an attempt to steal private property? Isn’t that confiscation, the kind of thing the Bolsheviks did and Castro did?”
RMN: “I agree that he should never have made the threat; that was well over the top, no question. It’s one thing for a candidate or even a Governor to issue that kind of irresponsible talk, although that’s dangerous enough, but a President of the United States should never use that sort of inflammatory rhetoric. It destroys confidence in the economy and in the Presidency. It’s the reason why we haven’t seen a recovery yet, and why the President has to stop this sort of firebrand rhetoric.”
SA: “Turning to foreign policy, would you say that the current Administration invited the Arabian revolution with its weak-kneed response?”
RMN:”Someone was asleep at the switch, that’s for sure. This so-called revolution in the Arabian peninsula should have been avoided. The King was our close ally, and we should have done more to secure him. Saudi Arabia was vital to our strategic interests in the Middle East, and an important part of our energy security. By allowing the Saudi government to fall, the current Administration has gravely undercut our security, on both fronts.”
SA:”Do you think we should use military force to put the King back on the throne?”
RMN:”I think we need to support pro-freedom and pro-market elements in Arabia. After what’s happened, there will be no going back. What we need to do now is prevent this revolt by a bunch of religious fanatics from consolidating itself, and yes the power of the United States should be brought to bear to ensure that a moderate government comes to the fore, or at least one that will do business with us and re-open the oil fields.”
SA:”Do we need to destroy Islam to do that?”
RMN: “We shouldn’t make this about religion, Ted. That’s the way to more of this kind of lunacy. We should concentrate on building alliances and supporting those who believe in fair and balanced governance. Any religious questions need to be decided by the Arabians themselves.”
SA:”You said recently that – Wallace – had let down our friend, President Somoza. How did you mean that?”
RMN: “General Somoza has always been our staunch ally in the fight against Communism. I think that when the Congress cut him off in his hour of need, that was reprehensible. The President was right to give him military aid, no matter what those – ah, nattering nabobs – on the Hill say or do. Where he failed, and where I condemn his policy as weak, is that he didn’t fight openly for more military aid for Nicaragua. A covert program is good, but the President needs to stand-up and fight the Congress to fight for support for our ally, because only through open programs will we be able to give the Nicaraguans the amount of military aid they need to fight off the communist backed guerrillas. President Gavin did that, under very tough circumstances and against the strong opposition of Congress, and managed to win in Vietnam. I fault President Wallace for not doing the same for Nicaragua.”
SA:”General Gavin wasn’t the first to fight Congress over Vietnam, and we were both right on that. So, Wallace has weakened us around the world and made our economy into a bigger mess. We can only hope that someone will come along next year and get him out of office. Thank-you for speaking with us, Dick.”
RMN: “A pleasure, always.”
----------------------------
George Wallace: “A jailbird and a self-confessed crook calling me bad? Humph! I welcome their contempt, and return it ten- fold. Who in their right mind is going to listen to those has-beens? Not me.”
RMN (to an aide, about Agnew): “If anything, his ego has gotten worse over the past few years, and there’s so much less for him to be self-important about. It’s a good thing they removed him when they did.”
February 23, 1979
Frank Peterson Jr named 1st black general in Marine Corps.
George Harrison releases "George Harrison" album.
A war between North and South Yemen is delayed because of mutual anxiety over the Arabian Revolution.
February 26, 1979
A total solar eclipse arcs over northern Canada, and a partial solar eclipse is visible over almost all of North America and Central America.
In the pre-dawn hours of February 26 a Cuban MIG-21 crashes in a farm field outside of Indian Lake, Texas. A parachute is found but the Cuban pilot is missing. A manhunt begins for the Cuban pilot.
In a meeting with Irish Taoiseach Donnegan, British Prime Minister Denis Healey expresses support for the development of a “peaceful, disarmed and neutral” Northern Ireland [Ulster].
February 27, 1979
The annual Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans, Louisiana is canceled due to a strike called by the New Orleans Police Department.
The UN Security Council votes a new round of sanctions against the Rhodesian regime for use of “weapons of mass destruction.”
February 28, 1979
Iraqi forces under the command of Vice President Saddam Hussein invade Arabia.
Ronald Reagan refers to Anastasio Somoza as “the George Washington of Nicaragua.”
March 1, 1979
Scotland votes narrowly for home rule, which is not implemented (and which lead to more problems), and Wales votes against it.
In Nicaragua, the Independent Liberal Party (PLI), and the Popular Social Christian Party (Partido Popular Social Christiano – PPSC), refuse to join an FSLN popular front, leaving the opposition to Somoza divided.
“Sweeney Todd" opens at Uris Theater in New York City.
The Pentagon notes that the Soviets are building longer runways in Cuba, and believe that they are preparing to base long-range bombers on that island. The U.S. objects.
The Soviet Defence Minister Viktor Georgiyevich Kulikov completes a three nation tour of Zambia, Angola and Mozambique. In Zambia he meets with ZPLF leaders to discuss the provision of heavier weapons.
March 3, 1979
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee hears testimony concerning the transfer of a large amount of small arms to the Nicaraguan regime despite a Congressional ban. This is being done through the assistance of the Chilean government, which is also on Congress’ black list. The Committee also hears how Taiwanese, South Korean and Chilean mercenaries are being provided to the Somoza National Guard and that their funding is being provided by the U.S. government, in contravention to the Congressional restrictions on supplying “lethal” support to the Somoza regime.
El Salvador President Carlos Humberto Romero is removed by a military coup. Vice President Julio Ernesto Astacio succeeds him as President of El Salvador.
March 4, 1979
The U.S. Voyager I spaceprobe photos reveal Jupiter's rings.
200th episode of "All in the Family". Archie is still living with the Jeffersons as borders in his home. His bar has failed, as has his business. He is forced to work for an old Jewish man who is a tailor, and who is a neighbourhood bookie on the side. This re-visits Archie’s gambling problem.
Despite being lead by Sunni officers and a Sunni-lead regime, the Iraqi forces are greeted in Dahran by Sh’ite workers as liberators. Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein, who is in command of the force, is greeted in Dahran with cheers proclaiming him “the Sword of God.” Saddam’s followers begin using this name in reference to him.
March 5, 1979
Voyager I makes its closest approach to Jupiter at 172,000 miles.
FSLN military leader Humberto Ortega is assassinated by a South Korean hit squad. This will lead to charges that the Wallace Administration is bankrolling hit squads in the Nicaraguan conflict.
U.S. backed Ethiopian forces suffer a major set-back at the hands of Soviet backed Somail forces in the Ogaden.
Portuguese and Spanish troops exchange fire at Barrancos on the border.
January 1, 1979
United Nations Secretary General Kurt Waldheim heralds the start of the International Year of the Child. Many musicians donate to the Music for UNICEF Concert fund including ABBA, who write the song "Chiquitita" to commemorate the event.
The Canton of Jura comes into existence as the twenty-sixth canton of Switzerland, being formed from the predominantly French-speaking Catholic part of the Canton of Bern.
January 4, 1979
The State of Ohio agrees to pay $675,000 to families of the dead and injured in the Kent State shootings.
On a state visit to Cuba Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Suslov announces that the Soviet Union will begin building a large naval base near the American naval base at Guantanamo, Cuba. This base will include facilities for landing and taking-off of long range aircraft. The United States immediately protests this action. The contingent of Marines and Naval aircraft at Guantanamo Bay is increased.
January 6, 1979
President Wallace: “It sounds to me like Suslov wants us to invade Cuba; that’s sure the message I’m gettin’. I’m thinking I may have to do the job that Kennedy couldn’t do in sixty-one.”
U.S. Secretary of Defense Graham Claytor orders military police services to end investigations of suspected homosexual members in the U.S. Armed Forces.
January 7, 1979
Suslov: “The American President’s latest comment can only be regarded as the worst kind of war mongering. Let no one doubt that the Soviet people stand behind our Cuban comrades and that we will defend the Cuban revolution against any and all forms of imperialist aggression from anywhere, and especially from the United States.”
January 8, 1979
The French tanker Betelgeuse explodes at the Gulf Oil terminal at Bantry, Ireland; 50 are killed.
Argentina and Chile sign the Beagle Canal Accord. Due to Argentina’s failure in Operation Soberania the terms heavily favour Chile, which causes resentment in Argentina. Around this time it is revealed that Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador were all warned by the Chilean government not to interfere, lest they face reprisals. Chilean diplomats convinced leaders in these three countries that they knew enough about Argentine plans that there would never be any question of an Argentine victory.
January 9, 1979
The Music for UNICEF Concert is held at the United Nations General Assembly to raise money for UNICEF and promote the Year of the Child. It is broadcast the following day in the United States and around the world. Hosted by The Bee Gees, other performers include Donna Summer, ABBA, Rod Stewart and Earth, Wind & Fire. A soundtrack album is later released.
In its holding on Colautti v. Franklin, 439 U.S. 379, the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down (5-4) a Pennsylvania law requiring doctors performing an abortion to try to preserve lives of potentially viable foetuses. Majority: Blackmun, joined by Brennan, Stewart, Marshall and Powell. Dissent: White, joined by Burger, Rehnquist and Kennedy.
January 12, 1979
LA's Hillside Strangler, Kenneth Bianchi, arrested in Bellingham, Washington.
January 14, 1979
Sen. Jimmy Carter (D-GA) proposes that Martin Luther King’s birthday become a national holiday. President Wallace declines to endorse the measure.
January 19, 1979
Former U.S. Attorney General John N. Mitchell is released on parole after 19 months at a federal prison in Alabama.
U.S. satellite intelligence note an increased presence of Soviet ships in Cuban harbours.
January 21, 1979
The price of gold approaches $1,000 per troy ounce.
January 29, 1979
Brenda Ann Spencer opens fire at a school in San Diego, California, killing 2 faculty members and wounding 8 students. Her justification for the action, "I don't like Mondays," inspired the Boomtown Rats to make a song of the same name.
CBS News Televsion interview between Roger Mudd and former President Richard Nixon. Nixon is promoting a new book called The Watergate Myth :A Deception That Hides the Real Crimes of the 1972 Election.
Mudd: "Yet you have to be clear that - your previous comments about it aside - there was sustained law breaking by you and your suboridnates. A jury convicted you on that basis - they concluded as a matter of fact that you were invovled in obstruciton of justice - and the appeals courts upheld them."
RMN: "The jury, the courts, didn't have all the facts, in part because we didn't know everything, and couldn't present everything. But you've seen in the recent revelations, in A Democrat's Watergate , for instance , and in other investigations, the illegal activites of the McKeithen campaign."
Mudd: "Is that to say that because the Democrats did it too, it was all right?"
RMN:"No, I'm arguing that what happened was that the McKeithen campaign used illegal tactics to try and undermine the legitimate government of the United States, which effectively they did through their conduct of the election. The result, which seriously threatened the stability of our nation by leaving the Presidency weakened, and open to challenge, for nearly a year afterward, was no different than an act of espionage by a foreign power. My argument is that Governor McKeithen did more than pull a few dirty tricks, he and his Democrat cronies engaged in a form of treason, in as much as they levied a kind of war against the legitimate government."
Mudd: "So you are equating election year politics with treason?"
RMN: "In an election it is legitimate to debate policy, to discuss the direction our country should take. You can even challenge the character of the candidates - that's expected. What happened here was so different, and so low, that it goes to an entirely different category than just politics. It was levying a covert war: don't forget, they impersonated the IRS in order to de-stabilize our effort to ne re-elected. That is a crime any way you look at it."
Mudd: "Yes, clearly it is. No one is seriously disputing that. The real question though is how you have taken it, to file a new motion in the courts, to have your conviction overturned on the basis that you were acting in defense of the country. Is that a fair statement of your position?"
RMN:"Let me be clear on that, Roger. I have argued, and will continue to do so, that we were engaged in legitimate counter-intelligence activity in response to a serious threat to the legitimate government of the United States. We knew there was a threat and were actively seeking intelligence on it, for national security, to protect the people. We failed, in that we didn't uncover the extent of the illegal behavior of the Democrats. Had we done so at the time, our whole actions would have been seen differently. The jurty that heard my case in 1975 would, if they heard this, have come to a different conclusion. I'm taking this to the courts to say that our actions on behalf of national security were justified, and to the extent that there was a real threat to our stability by a group of unscrupulous political operators who were ready to cast aside the law just to win an election, we were right to do what we did. My actions, and those of then Attorney General Mitchell, were consistent with our Constitutional duties, our sworn duties, to protect the nation and uphold the law. Those men who acted in my behalf, were equally doing their sworn duty. The argument I'm taking to the courts is that all of the convictions that have come from this - the myth that there was a Watergate crime at all - should be thrown out."
Mudd:"It's too late to prosecute Governor McKeithen though."
RMN:"Yes, but there are others from that campaign who were equally responsible, perhaps more so. I think it is past time that a special prosecutor had a good, hard look at what they did, and charged the guilty accordingly."
-------------------------------------------------
January 30, 1979
The Rhodesian Constitution is suspended. The Prime Minister, Ina Bursey and the Chiefs of Staff enact a form of direct executive rule under the term “Emergency measures.”
February 1, 1979
President Wallace does not commute the sentence of convicted bank robber Patty Hearst, who remains in prison.
February 2, 1979
President Wallace's State of the Union Address.
"Let me be clear, that the only way for our Union to regain its strength is for the ordinary, working American in every State, to get back on his or her feet and get back to work. I re-state the committment I first made in Iowa in late 1975 - my Administration stands with the little guy - the ordinary, hard working taxpayer against the special interest that would bleed them dry or keep them unemployed - and for what? The corporate interest? The bottom line? Well let me tell you, the bottom line has always been - like it says at the head of our great Constitution - the common welfare. That's the common welfare of we the people and not you the fat cats."
[Applause]
"During this session I will re-submit the Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act to this Congress for consideration and - I hope - quick passage. Let's be clear, in considering this legislation you will have a clear choice to make, between the common welfare of the American people - the voters who put you here and who are your real boss - and the fat cats who are making a mint of this economic problem and stashing it away in a bank vault, all while ordinary, hardworking Americans starve or go homeless for want of work, or because oil prices are too high. You will chose between the voters and the fat cats, and the voters will see what choice you make with your vote, and I assure you they will reward those who take their interests into account, and not those who think the fat cats deserve a special profit and the public's expense."
February 3, 1979
President Wallace’s Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act is reintroduced into Congress.
February 5, 1979
Amidst charges of U.S. covert support for the Somoza regime in Nicaragua, the House and Senate Foreign Relations Committees begin hearings as to whether the Wallace Administration has been violating Congressional ordinances in supplying military support to Somoza.
February 7, 1979
Pluto moves inside Neptune's orbit for the first time since either was known to science.
Colonel Benjedid Chadli succeeds pres Boumedienne in Algeria.
The Royal government of Laos collapses under pressure from the Pathet Lao “Green” and other internal opposition. A new Republic of Laos is formed with a government composed of technocrats, liberals and Pathet Lao “Green” leaders. The former King abdicates and goes into exile in the United States.
Pink Floyd premiered their live version of "The Wall" in Los Angeles.
Toronto Maple Leaf Darryl Sittler scores NHL record 10 pts (6 goals)
February 8, 1979
Denis Sassou-Nguesso became the President of the Republic of the Congo for the first time.
February 10 – February 16, 1979
The Cuban, Portuguese and Soviet Navies conduct joint exercises in the Mid Atlantic. They are shadowed by U.S. Navy ships.
Elvis’ first rock-and-roll evangelical crusade with the Rev. Pat Robertson as guest speaker appears on ABC Television.
Robertson: “Christians the world over are in a rapturous joy today, for they know that soon the Lord will be among them, and Jesus shall lift them up unto the Kingdom of the Father. Only the sinner and the heathen need look on the Middle East and despair in anxiety; for indeed their false world is coming to an end in a wave of fire and judgment. The war long foretold in the Book of Revelation has come to us. The Anti-Christ stands under the banner of Muslim, and he walks on the sands of Arabia. Soon the judgement shall come, and all will be judged before the Father. But fear not my friends, for this is a happy time for Christians, for soon we shall be free and glorified. Let us, therefore, pray with joy for the coming conflict, and let us rejoice in the hour of judgement and salvation.”
ABC receives a lot of complaints about this sermon by Robertson.
Elvis: “I don’t endorse what Dr. Robertson said. I think he needs to look hard at what he’s saying, and maybe chill on it a little. I’m not for war; I’m doing the work of the Prince of Peace and all I want is Peace and Christian enlightenment, man. That’s not war; I say no to war.”
February 12, 1979
Prime Minister Hissène Habré starts the Battle of N'Djamena in an attempt to overthrow Chad's President Félix Malloum.
British, Irish and Sein Fein negotiators at Ramboulliet in France begin talks on a formula for a joint-sovereignty project in Northern Ireland (Ulster). Top among the concerns of London and Dublin negotiators is the disarmament of paramilitaries under a joint commission.
Kosmos 1076, 1st Soviet oceanographic satellite, launched.
February 13, 1979
An intense windstorm strikes western Washington and sinks a 1/2-mile-long section of the Hood Canal Bridge.
February 14-18, 1979
The Battle of Sinola is a four day engagement between Rhodesian and ZPLF forces in and around Sinola in Rhodesia. The intense battle – described as an “African Stalingrad” in one newspaper – destroys the town of Sinola. ZPLF forces are finally forced to withdraw only when the Rhodesian Air Force drops mustard gas on them. There are also reports of another dirty bomb being used.
Marine Major Oliver North is questioned by the House Foreign Relations Committee about his activities in Nicaragua. North takes the fifth on several occasions, causing a stir. The result of his taking the fifth leads directly to North’s Court Martial by the Marine corps.
February 14, 1979
In Kabul, Muslim extremists are killed while attempting to kidnap the American ambassador to Afghanistan, Adolph Dubs, who survives the incident.
Following her 1972 sex reassignment surgery, musician Wendy Carlos legally changes her name from Walter. She later reveals this information in an interview in the May 1979 issue of Playboy Magazine.
In areas of the Arabia that have large concentrations of Sh'ites - especially in the oil processing areas along the Persian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia - uprisings and revolts breakout against the Revolutionary government. This is triggered in part by brutual treatment of Shias by Mutaween (Religous Police) and is also a defensive measure by many Sh'ites who make their living from the oil industry to protect their livelyhood from destruction by Sunni fanatics. Sh'ite rebels actively resist Mutaween efforts to destroy oil facilities with armed force. The situation rapidly deteriorates into one of armed conflict and chaos.
February 15, 1979
A suspected gas explosion in a Warsaw bank kills 49.
The Battle of Matagalpa. The forces of Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza backed by covert U.S. forces and Chilean paramilitary units inflict a severe defeat on the FSLN after intensive battle near the Nicaraguan city of Matagalpa. FSLN field commander Jaime Wheelock is killed in the battle.
February 17, 1979
U.S. Navy and Air Force air craft engage in bombing missions against Pathet Lao “Red” forces.
Former President Richard Nixon speaks out in favour of the U.S. providing “all-out” support for the Somoza regime, which he characterises as a “close ally in the struggle against Communist aggression in Latin America.”
February 18, 1979
The Sahara Desert experiences snow for 30 minutes.
After a lull in combat, the PRC and Pathet Lao “Red” forces re-new their offensive operations in north central Laos.
February 21, 1979
Japan launches Hakucho x-ray satellite & Corsa-B (550/580 km)
The House of Representatives votes 244 -189 to table President Wallace’s Oil Profits for the Common Welfare Act and not bring it to a vote.
President Wallace: “Never has any group of so-called public servants shown the depth of their venality and indifference to the American people with such callous disregard to the people’s welfare. I have presented to them – twice now – the opportunity to share the massive accumulation of wealth by those who would exploit our crisis with the people who are suffering. How does this snake pit that passes itself off as a Congress react? Do they choose the side of the people? No, these skunks and bandits have chosen the side of the rich fat cats and given the back of their hand to the American people, who scream for justice and relief from every corner of our beleaguered nation. Well, my fellow citizens, this Congress of naves and carpetbaggers has sown the wind, and now they shall reap the whirlwind. The time has come to put the American people first and the fat cats last. The time has come to test whether a President, elected by the people and fighting for the people, shall overcome a nest of vipers elected by the people but fighting against the people. My Bible tells me that righteousness shall prevail, and so shall we, though we may have to carry the fight a thousand times, there will be a reckoning for this conniving and grasping by this petty, selfish Congress.”
Cuban efforts to mediate a broader popular front among FSLN members and other members of the anti-Somoza opposition in Nicaragua fail when the meeting is infiltrated by agents who disrupt the proceedings. A Cuban diplomat involved in the reconciliation talks is assassinated in Panama City.
February 22, 1979
Saint Lucia becomes independent of the United Kingdom.
Cuban and Soviet aircraft fly close to the Florida cost, resulting in a series of alerts.
Billy Martin named manager of Oakland A's.
Cleveland Metroparks Zoo's Primate & Cat Building is dedicated.
Despite pressure from the White House, the Congressional leadership delays hearings on the candidacy of Governor Lamm for the Vice Presidency. They are focused on the Nicaragua hearings.
Agnew On Point
SA: “I’m pleased tonight to have as my guest former President Richard Nixon, with who I served as Vice President over four years. It’s good to see you looking so well, Mr. President.”
RMN: “Thank-you, Ted. It is good to be here.”
SA: "First I have to say, I've read The Watergate Myth, and I must say, you've proven what we knew all along, that this Watergate business was nothing but a conspiracy against us by the Democrat Party, and that your actions were not only legitimate, but Constitutional."
RMN:"Exactly. you know, when I said 'if the President does it, then it's legal" the liberals all squirmed and expressed their ourage at me: how dare Nixon say such a thing? He was convicted by a jury. Well, that jury didn't have the facts, and now that they are out, we can see who the real crooks are."
SA:"Yes, the larcenous liberal and nattering nabobs have to answer for what they did. They couldn't beat us at the polls, so they resorted to criminality. What you did, that was protecting the nation from a conspiracy - a criminal conspiracy, that would have destroyed our liberty."
RMN:"It's unfortunate that some men put their lust for power above principle, isn't it? They couldn't stand the idea of losing to us again, so they broke the law to try and steal the election."
SA:"Fortunately, it didn't work. I must say, you didn't invovle me at the time, but I would have been more than ready to join you and the others in this fight to save our democracy."
RMN: "I know you would have done your part, had it been necessary. As it was, you did many important things for the campaign, and that helped in keeping McKeithen from seizing the Presidency outright."
SA: “The Democrat Party's arrogance and venality didn't stop with their loss in 1972. You’ve recently spoken out against the administration of General Secretary Wallace, denouncing his red policies as calling them destructive to America.”
RMN:”Well, Ted, let me be clear on this point. I have felt compelled to speak out because President Wallace’s actions in office are undermining the security of our country. In the economy and in foreign policy, he is taking us down the wrong path.”
SA:”Let’s take the economy. Would you agree that – Wallace is wrecking the free enterprise economy with his socialist inspired theft of free market property?”
RMN:”Well, Ted, I don’t want to overstate the case. This country has been in a very difficult position – in terms of the economy – since about a year after I left the Presidency. As you know we’ve been through several oil price crises, and that has caused a lot of problems. That occurred before President Wallace took office. What George Wallace has done, especially in the last year, is aggravate the uncertainty that prevents a recovery...”
SA: “With his Socialist polices?”
RMN:”With his often conflicting pronouncements, and his populist pronouncements, which cause a chill to come down over the markets and the business sector, which is already uncertain. It’s not so much that he has done anything – most of his ideas have been rejected by the Congress, and that was before we won a Republican majority in the House last November – but it his continued firebrand rhetoric that is making markets nervous.”
SA:”But, Mr. President, wouldn’t you agree, that his attempts to steal profits from our free market oil producers is an attempt to steal private property? Isn’t that confiscation, the kind of thing the Bolsheviks did and Castro did?”
RMN: “I agree that he should never have made the threat; that was well over the top, no question. It’s one thing for a candidate or even a Governor to issue that kind of irresponsible talk, although that’s dangerous enough, but a President of the United States should never use that sort of inflammatory rhetoric. It destroys confidence in the economy and in the Presidency. It’s the reason why we haven’t seen a recovery yet, and why the President has to stop this sort of firebrand rhetoric.”
SA: “Turning to foreign policy, would you say that the current Administration invited the Arabian revolution with its weak-kneed response?”
RMN:”Someone was asleep at the switch, that’s for sure. This so-called revolution in the Arabian peninsula should have been avoided. The King was our close ally, and we should have done more to secure him. Saudi Arabia was vital to our strategic interests in the Middle East, and an important part of our energy security. By allowing the Saudi government to fall, the current Administration has gravely undercut our security, on both fronts.”
SA:”Do you think we should use military force to put the King back on the throne?”
RMN:”I think we need to support pro-freedom and pro-market elements in Arabia. After what’s happened, there will be no going back. What we need to do now is prevent this revolt by a bunch of religious fanatics from consolidating itself, and yes the power of the United States should be brought to bear to ensure that a moderate government comes to the fore, or at least one that will do business with us and re-open the oil fields.”
SA:”Do we need to destroy Islam to do that?”
RMN: “We shouldn’t make this about religion, Ted. That’s the way to more of this kind of lunacy. We should concentrate on building alliances and supporting those who believe in fair and balanced governance. Any religious questions need to be decided by the Arabians themselves.”
SA:”You said recently that – Wallace – had let down our friend, President Somoza. How did you mean that?”
RMN: “General Somoza has always been our staunch ally in the fight against Communism. I think that when the Congress cut him off in his hour of need, that was reprehensible. The President was right to give him military aid, no matter what those – ah, nattering nabobs – on the Hill say or do. Where he failed, and where I condemn his policy as weak, is that he didn’t fight openly for more military aid for Nicaragua. A covert program is good, but the President needs to stand-up and fight the Congress to fight for support for our ally, because only through open programs will we be able to give the Nicaraguans the amount of military aid they need to fight off the communist backed guerrillas. President Gavin did that, under very tough circumstances and against the strong opposition of Congress, and managed to win in Vietnam. I fault President Wallace for not doing the same for Nicaragua.”
SA:”General Gavin wasn’t the first to fight Congress over Vietnam, and we were both right on that. So, Wallace has weakened us around the world and made our economy into a bigger mess. We can only hope that someone will come along next year and get him out of office. Thank-you for speaking with us, Dick.”
RMN: “A pleasure, always.”
----------------------------
George Wallace: “A jailbird and a self-confessed crook calling me bad? Humph! I welcome their contempt, and return it ten- fold. Who in their right mind is going to listen to those has-beens? Not me.”
RMN (to an aide, about Agnew): “If anything, his ego has gotten worse over the past few years, and there’s so much less for him to be self-important about. It’s a good thing they removed him when they did.”
February 23, 1979
Frank Peterson Jr named 1st black general in Marine Corps.
George Harrison releases "George Harrison" album.
A war between North and South Yemen is delayed because of mutual anxiety over the Arabian Revolution.
February 26, 1979
A total solar eclipse arcs over northern Canada, and a partial solar eclipse is visible over almost all of North America and Central America.
In the pre-dawn hours of February 26 a Cuban MIG-21 crashes in a farm field outside of Indian Lake, Texas. A parachute is found but the Cuban pilot is missing. A manhunt begins for the Cuban pilot.
In a meeting with Irish Taoiseach Donnegan, British Prime Minister Denis Healey expresses support for the development of a “peaceful, disarmed and neutral” Northern Ireland [Ulster].
February 27, 1979
The annual Mardi Gras celebration in New Orleans, Louisiana is canceled due to a strike called by the New Orleans Police Department.
The UN Security Council votes a new round of sanctions against the Rhodesian regime for use of “weapons of mass destruction.”
February 28, 1979
Iraqi forces under the command of Vice President Saddam Hussein invade Arabia.
Ronald Reagan refers to Anastasio Somoza as “the George Washington of Nicaragua.”
March 1, 1979
Scotland votes narrowly for home rule, which is not implemented (and which lead to more problems), and Wales votes against it.
In Nicaragua, the Independent Liberal Party (PLI), and the Popular Social Christian Party (Partido Popular Social Christiano – PPSC), refuse to join an FSLN popular front, leaving the opposition to Somoza divided.
“Sweeney Todd" opens at Uris Theater in New York City.
The Pentagon notes that the Soviets are building longer runways in Cuba, and believe that they are preparing to base long-range bombers on that island. The U.S. objects.
The Soviet Defence Minister Viktor Georgiyevich Kulikov completes a three nation tour of Zambia, Angola and Mozambique. In Zambia he meets with ZPLF leaders to discuss the provision of heavier weapons.
March 3, 1979
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee hears testimony concerning the transfer of a large amount of small arms to the Nicaraguan regime despite a Congressional ban. This is being done through the assistance of the Chilean government, which is also on Congress’ black list. The Committee also hears how Taiwanese, South Korean and Chilean mercenaries are being provided to the Somoza National Guard and that their funding is being provided by the U.S. government, in contravention to the Congressional restrictions on supplying “lethal” support to the Somoza regime.
El Salvador President Carlos Humberto Romero is removed by a military coup. Vice President Julio Ernesto Astacio succeeds him as President of El Salvador.
March 4, 1979
The U.S. Voyager I spaceprobe photos reveal Jupiter's rings.
200th episode of "All in the Family". Archie is still living with the Jeffersons as borders in his home. His bar has failed, as has his business. He is forced to work for an old Jewish man who is a tailor, and who is a neighbourhood bookie on the side. This re-visits Archie’s gambling problem.
Despite being lead by Sunni officers and a Sunni-lead regime, the Iraqi forces are greeted in Dahran by Sh’ite workers as liberators. Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein, who is in command of the force, is greeted in Dahran with cheers proclaiming him “the Sword of God.” Saddam’s followers begin using this name in reference to him.
March 5, 1979
Voyager I makes its closest approach to Jupiter at 172,000 miles.
FSLN military leader Humberto Ortega is assassinated by a South Korean hit squad. This will lead to charges that the Wallace Administration is bankrolling hit squads in the Nicaraguan conflict.
U.S. backed Ethiopian forces suffer a major set-back at the hands of Soviet backed Somail forces in the Ogaden.
Portuguese and Spanish troops exchange fire at Barrancos on the border.
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Neither Founding Fathers nor Bolsheviks
From The Jihad War by Thomas Friedman
Many in the west were astonished by the speed of the Saudi collapse when it came and the slow response of the western powers in the four months between the Hajj riots in November 1978 (the event which precipitated the fall of the Al Saud) and the Iraqi Invasion of February 1979. In part the very speed of the Al Saud collapse – an unexpected event in most western capitals despite the previous warnings - precipitated a cautious reaction. However to fully understand the events it is important to place them in context.
The Religious-Political situation in Saudi Arabia
Political and social power in Saudi Arabia rested in three groups: the royal (Al Saud) family, the Ulema and the tribal leaders.
The royal family dominated the political system. The family’s vast numbers allowed it to control most of the kingdom’s important posts and to have an involvement and presence at all levels of government. The number of princes is estimated to be anything from 7,000 upwards, with the most power and influence being wielded by the 200 or so male descendants of King Abdul Aziz. The key ministries were generally reserved for the royal family,as Arnold] were the thirteen regional governorships. Long term political and government appointments, (some senior ministers – all of whom are sons of the founding King – have held certain portfolios most of the lives, such as such as King Abdullah, who had been Commander of the National Guard from 1963 until he ascended to the throne in 1977, Crown Prince Sultan, Minister of Defence and Aviation since 1962 and Prince Salman, who has been Governor of the Riyadh Region since 1962. This practice has resulted in the creation of "power fiefdoms" for senior princes and created silos of power around individual figures rather than a more open, collaborative government. Inter-departmental activities often had to go through the ministers directly, even on the most trivial of matters. As a consequence, when push came to shove, there were ministries loyal to individual princes (or completely demoralized when their patron fled the country) but no national government to speak of distinguishable from the Al Saud princes themselves.
In the absence of national elections and political parties, politics in Saudi Arabia took place in two distinct arenas: within the royal family, the Al Saud, and between the royal family and the rest of Saudi society. The royal family is politically divided by factions based on clan loyalties, personal ambitions and ideological differences. The most powerful clan faction is known as the 'Sudairi Seven', comprising the late Crown Prince Fahd and his full brothers and their descendants. Ideological divisions include issues over the speed and direction of reform, and whether the role of the ulema should be increased or reduced. There are also divisions within the family over who should succeed King Abdullah in the post of Crown Prince.
This in fact created the “Crown Prince crisis” of 1977-78 which only further served to undermine the political authority of the Al Saud. The Sudari faction were not aligned with the revolutionaries - in fact Prince Bandar ibn Aziz and Juhyaman al-Qtabi were equally as vocal in denouncing them as part of the whole oligarchy - but members of thr group - and especially Prince Nayef, who was the leading Sudari candidate for the post of Crown Prince - believed they could use the unrest being created by the firebrand preachers to their advantage. Prince Nayef, who became Interior Minister after King Faisal's assassination in 1975, was personally committed to maintaining Saudi Arabia's conservative Wahhabi values. Of the senior princes, he was probably the least comfortable with the reformist tendencies which Abdullah had pursued as Crown Prince under the ailing King Khalid and after he became King himself. The evidence is that Prince Nayef did the most to turn the Mutaween (Religious Police) and the Saudi Army against the regime, believing that he could then take command of these forces as a more conservative leader than King Abdullah and his circle, perhaps to the point of supplanting King Addullah as monarch in what would have amounted to the first coup in Saudi history. That being the case, Prince Nayef and his supporters clearly underestimated - or chose to ignore - the radicalism and anti-monarchy position of the revolutionaries, who were not prepared to substitute one Saudi King with another, no matter how conservative he presented himself as being. Instead they took Prince Nayef's undermining of the religious police in particular, but also the Army (which, unlike the elite National Guard, drew its members from the lower orders of society - the same base that was embracing ? and ? message) and turned it to their favor, in effect leveraging palace intrigue into a serious threat to the regime which neither the King's supporters nor Prince Nayef's fully realized until it was too late.
The significance of the ulema (the body of Islamic religious leaders and jurists) is derived from the central role of religion in Saudi society. It has been said that Islam is more than a religion, it is a way of life in Saudi Arabia, and, as a result, the influence of the ulema is pervasive. In 1978-79 Saudi Arabia was unique in giving the ulema a direct role in government. Not only is royal succession subject to the approval of the ulema, so are all new laws (royal decrees). The ulema have also influenced major executive decisions, for example the imposition of the oil embargo in 1973 and the continued opposition to foreign occupation in Syria between 1974 and 1979. The ulema plays a major role in the judicial and education systems and has a monopoly of authority in the sphere of religious and social morals.
The ulema have historically been led by the Al ash-Sheikh, the country's leading religious family. The Al ash-Sheikh are the descendants of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, the 18th century founder of the Wahhabi form of Sunni Islam which is today dominant in Saudi Arabia. The family is second in prestige only to the Al Saud (the royal family) with whom they formed a "mutual support pact" and power-sharing arrangement nearly 300 years ago. The pact, which persists to this day, is based on the Al Saud maintaining the Al ash-Sheikh's authority in religious matters and upholding and propagating Wahhabi doctrine. In return, the Al ash-Sheikh support the Al Saud's political authority thereby using its religious-moral authority to legitimize the royal family's rule. There has been a high degree of intermarriage between the two families, which has served to strengthen the bonds between the two clans, and reinforced the authority of each within their own areas of responsibility.
By the 1970s, as a result of oil wealth and the modernization of the country initiated by King Faisal, important changes to Saudi society were under way and the power of the ulema was in decline, which many of the senior clerics had come to resent. This in part explained their support for the radical preachers al-Otabi and Abdullah Hamid al Qahtani. Furthermore, when the aesthetic Prince Bandar began to signal his support for the radical message (he later argued that the message was not radical at all, rather that the “radicals” were in fact restoring an older, purer form of the Islamic faith which had been corrupted by oil wealth and western influences) he provided the ulema with an alternate center of authority within their traditional alliance with the House of Saud. It is important to remember that Prince Bandar was a son of King Ibn Saud and had been passed over for the throne because of his devotion to religious scholarship and what, in the west, would be called the life of a monk. Where these had been vices to the royal family, they were in fact virtues to the rising tide of fundamentalist religion and secular rejectionism. Al-Otabial-Qahtani provided the firebrand message, but Bandar’s support allowed the ulema to shift their support within the House of Saud and so line-up with a revolution while at the same time not breaking with hundreds of years of tradition, or violating the tight family bonds between the two. and
Outside of the House of Al Saud, participation in the political process is limited to a relatively small segment of the population and takes the form of the royal family consulting with the ulema, tribal sheikhs and members of important commercial families on major decisions. This process is not reported by the Saudi media. In theory, all males of the age of majority have a right to petition the king directly through the traditional tribal meeting known as the majlis. In many ways, the approach to government differs little from the traditional system of tribal rule. Tribal identity remains strong and, outside of the royal family, political influence is frequently determined by tribal affiliation, with tribal sheikhs maintaining a considerable degree of influence over local and national events. Although they supported the royal house throughout, tribal leaders walked a fine line between that loyalty and an increasing support for the radicals among the mass of Saudis, especially those of the lower classes. They also took sides in the palace intrigue going on between Prince Nayef and the King. As a result the sheiks dithered and temporized, the result being that they undercut the last of the political support that the royal family had. This again was not readily apparent until the crunch came in November 1978. Only a few prescient scholars of Saudi politics foresaw what was happening and warned about it, and they were largely dismissed as alarmists in the West and as subversives by the Saudis themselves. Prince Nayef even called their warnings "black lies emanating from the Zionists to destroy the people of Islam."
Since the reign of King Faisal the Saudis had tried to maintain stability through leadership that has struck a careful balance between encouraging modernisation whilst respecting the conservatism of Saudi society. For example, whilst Faisal introduced radio and television to Saudi Arabia he ‘ordered large portions of programming time be devoted to religious instruction and readings from the Quran. Kings Khalid and Abdullah reinforce this, but a subtle change took place - they had the state broadcaster emphasise Quarn passages which could be interpreted as being pro-refrom, or at least leading in that direction. For conservatives - in a much broader circle than just the Sudaris or the revolutionists, but among some members of the ulema too - this was a red flag which suggested that Abdullah was moving toward a more liberal Islam (he wasn't necessarily, but like so much of the revolutionary fervor perception was manipulated to support the radical cause).
What undercut this were persistent rumors being spread by radicals (abetted by the Sudari faction) that the royal family was converting to Christiantiy or - worse from an Arab perspective - Judaism. That there was no substance to such a charge was quickly lost amidst rumor and rhetoric, especially in the mosques and at the street level. Evidence was produced in the form of a doctored photo of King Faisal supposedly shaking hands with an Israeli official, and the repeated "discovery" of secret stashes of Bibles and Torahs in places supposedly controlled by the royal family. Over the course of the three years from King Faisal's death to the Revolution such rumors - backed by the manufactured 'evidence" became like an acid undercutting what popular support the al-Saud faimly (both the King and, ironically the Sudari group as well) had left. It became popular to blame the Kingdom's many social problems - especially corruption and the unequal distribution of oil wealth - on this supposed "Crusader-Zionist" conspiracy to turn the home of the Holy Places away from Islam. By 1978 al-Otabi in particular was spreading a firebrand message that the King and his brothers were conspiring to bring about a new and final crusade against all Islam - to wipe it out - and that the Syrian occupation had been but the first step in this plan.
All of this culminated in the Hajj riots in the third week of November 1978. When the riots began (they began as a dispute between some Arab and Pakistani pilgrims over access to water), the royal regime tried to move to exert control, while the Sudari faction - which believed it had solid control over the Mutaween - held them back, allowing the riots to go on for a time, beleving this would weaken the King's postion. What they didn't count on was Prince Bandar and al-Otabi then turning this seeming lack of action back on the entire regime. In a sermon probably influenced by Bandar's writings, at-Otabi referred to the on-going violence against the faithful, and the regime's lack of action to stop it, as a sure sign that the King had given-up on Islam and was punishing the faithful in furtherance of a Zionist plot. In the charged atmosphere of the Hajj, and the violence going on, these otherwise over-the-top charges took hold in the popular mind, especially among the Mutaween and the Army ranks, because the previous years' proselytizing by al-Otabi and al-Qahtani on the subject had prepared them to believe it.
As the regime lost control of the Mutaween and the Army, and the National Guard failed to put down the rising (which was joined by many foreign muslims who shifted from riot to aiding the revolution under the guidance of al-Otabi, who had lead them to believe that the rioting was inspired by some evil plot by the al-Saud to allow Mecca to fall to the Zionists) the royal government paniced. Haunted by what had happened by the Iraqi King Faisal in 1958, and by the situation in Syria, the King and several ministers decided to flee, though they claimed that they planned to return once they could consolidate their forces. More than likely they expected the Revolution to burn out, or to receive foreign military assistance in reclaiming the throne once the revolutionaries had fallen out amongst themselves and proved that they couldn't govern. King Abdullah elected not to stay though because his security could no longer be guaranteed, and he did not wish to give himself up as a martyr to the revolutionaries.
No sooner had the Revolutionaries taken control and established their Islamic Caliphate of Arabia (or Islamic Emirate of Arabia as some preferred - they eschewed the word "Republic" as an infidel term and therefore un-Islamic) than they faced uprisings of their own. First the Sunni fanatics began to crack down on the substantial Shia minority in the country, which caused the Shia to take-up arms in their own defence. Both al-Otabi and al-Qahtani were firebrands in their belief that the Shias were "heretics" and had to be rooted out and destroyed in the name of a purer Sunni Islam. Then the Revolutionary Majlis decided to destroy the oil infrastructure- again as an act of Islamic purification- from which the Shia derived their livelihood, and a full scale civil war began.
That situation was soon changed when the Iraqis invaded and were, despite being lead by Sunnis themselves, greeted as liberators and protectors by the Shia.
Reactions Among the Western Powers
The rapid fall of the Al-Saud regime in November 1978 lead to differing reactions among the western powers, which in turn lead to a prolonged period of negotiation that was only preempted by the Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia at the end of February 1979. No less than the Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein, who lead the initial Iraqi military surge into Saudi Arabia personally, accused the west of “inaction” and “dithering.” Both King Hussein of Jordan and Prime Minister Begin of Israel were equally as vocal in their denunciation of western sluggishness in response to the crisis.
Key to the western lethargy is to understand the causes behind the divisions between various western powers, and how this lead to endless rounds of seemingly unproductive diplomacy.
The United States, with perhaps the most to lose given its close ties to the Al-Saud family and reliance upon them for regional security, was paralyzed at the very top. The Saudi Revolution coincided with a constitutional crisis in which an ill President Wallace was temporarily replaced by his Vice President Nicholas Katzenbach. Katzenbach, who controlled U.S. foreign policy through much of November and into early December, was reluctant to act without a western consensus, one which rapidly eluded him. This happened in part because of the position of other powers, and in part because his legitimacy as a leader and policy-maker was subject to question as the Vice President was challenged by President Wallace, who successfully reclaimed his office in December.
President Wallace was ill, and in some accounts it has been suggested that his mental capabilities were sporadic during much of this period. Once Katzenbach ceased to be the acting President, control of U.S. foreign policy fell to U.S. Secretary of State Henry Jackson. In part his own personal style, and in part the wariness of other nations, lead to a situation where a consensus eluded the Secretary of State before the Iraqi invasion.
The U.S. did have a robust military response, in terms of the deployment of U.S. Navy and air support capacity to Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and North Yemen during this four month period. The U.S. expanded its military profile in the Gulf area over these four months, thanks largely to the efforts of Secretary of Defense Graham Claytor. Acting with seeming independence from (or disregard of) Wallace, Katzenbach or Jackson, Secretary Claytor ordered the increase American military presence in the region. The forcefulness of his preemptive response re-assured many Gulf states, but quickly raised red-flags in European capitals over U.S. intentions to intervene against the Arabian Revolution with military force, a policy option some U.S. allies regarded with dread.
Secretary Claytor’s unilateral orders may have stilled twitchy nerves in the UAE and Oman, but they won him no friends within the Wallace Administration or among both liberals and hawks on Capitol Hill. Liberals viewed the increased military presence as provocative, while hawks became obsessed over the idea that Claytor hadn’t gone far enough, and in the even lacked Presidential authority (from either Katzenbach or Wallace). Unhelpful to Claytor’s case was a row that broke out about the same time with some ultra conservatives, who were concerned that the Secretary of Defense was going soft on the question of prosecuting homosexual members of the U.S. armed forces. This ended in an ugly row between the Secretary and certain members of the Senate Armed Services committee on the eve of the Iraqi invasion.
The effect of this was (and Saddam Hussein made decisive reference to it on a number of occasions) was to make the American fist look empty and therefore useless. Neither Wallace nor Jackson gave any support to Claytor in the weeks of January and early February, when their support of the Defense Secretary could have underwritten clout behind the U.S. military moves. Instead, the political game in Washington gave to Claytor’s reinforcements the look of an empty threat unlikely to be acted upon.
Britain, the other historic power in the Gulf, took a very hands-off attitude as the Arabian Revolution evolved. Part of this was the result of limited British military resources already having been stretched too thin by occupation duties in Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal (Madeira), Syria and Hong Kong. As a result there was to be no large scale British military support for the Gulf Kingdoms because the proverbial cupboard was already bare. However, had there been the resources, the Labour government then in power showed a decided disinclination to use them. Save for Northern Ireland and Cyprus, all of these foreign missions had been inherited by Labour from their Conservative predecessors in 1977. Since that election, the Healey government had been looking at ways to draw down on these overseas commitments. Some in the left-wing of the Labour caucus were quite vocal in their belief that the United Kingdom should remove itself from all of them, sighting them as relics of an Imperial age now long past. The recent – and then still on-going (six years) – occupation of Syria (which had started in an effort to stop another such fundamentalist revolution in Syria in late 1973), with its attendant violence and “quagmire” perception, had left an especially jaundiced view of military ventures in the Middle East, not just among left-wing activists but with many average Britons, who had rejected the previous Heath government at the polls in part because of the unpopularity of its foreign policy.
Prime Minister Denis Healey had to balance a conflicting set of priorities between the left and center wings of his parliamentary party, and as such was reluctant to take any divisive or controversial stands which might further divide his government. The Conservative opposition may have been quite vocal in their support for more forceful intervention, but lacking any clear leadership at this point (they were still divided amongst themselves over the future direction their party should take on many policy questions) they were hardly ready to take back the government should Healey’s fall over the question (which the Prime Minister took steps to insure wouldn’t happen). The more interim Conservative leader Geoffrey Howe spoke in favour of a muscular response, the lower his poll numbers went. When Liberal front bench figure Kenneth Clarke spoke of “a diplomatic and economic solution” to a “local” and “politically evolutionary” problem, the more his numbers went up, a point not lost on Number Ten.
On the international stage this translated into a combination of dissemblance and obfuscations on the part of the British Foreign Secretary James Callaghan, who in talks with his U.S. and NATO counterparts, stressed the need for a consensus approach that favoured “influence” and “limited sanctions” over any direct intervention. The U.S. Secretary of State Henry Jackson called this “cotton mouth diplomacy” and “mush-minded”, both of which observations did not endear him or his government to their British counterparts. Relations between Jackson and Callaghan, which had been good up until this point, started to decline in face of the differing views of how to react to the Arabian Revolution.
Geoffrey Howe MP (Cons.- East Surrey): Why will this government not recognize the special nature of this crisis, which not only threatens stability in Arabia but throughout the Middle East, and act? British consumers and British workers are already being affected by the rise in oil prices caused by this uprising by a bunch of fanatics, and that alone creates an imperative for His Majesty's government to act before this gets out of hand. Yet, instead of acting, this government sits on its hands. Why?
James Callaghan MP (Foreign Secretary): The action the honourable member is asking for is military action, which would be highly inappropriate and an overreaction to a local problem. If we were to charge in with the troops - as well the honourable members past government might have done - we will only aggravate an already volatile situation, and then the British people and British industry would indeed suffer from the rapid escalation of oil prices. Our course, Mr. Speaker, is one of caution and diplomacy which may lack the bang-and-bluff the opposition would prefer, but which will see us through to a peaceful and sustainable resolution to this crisis.
Keith Joseph MP (Cons. - Leeds North East): Fanatics do not respond to diplomacy, no matter how well intentioned. This lot have as their design nothing less than a complete Islamic revolution or complete martyrdom in its cause. That is what they claim day and night in their pronouncements. Well, that martyrdom may well drag down all of our allies and partners in the region and can lead to no good for the wider world. I call upon this government to show some backbone and to act now, before it is too late.
Barbara Castle MP (Deputy Prime Minister): Oh, we hear the cries of Empire. In light of a people throwing off the shackles of an oppressive, medieval monarchy, our friends across the aisle wish only to unleash the sword of British Empire and vanquish those who will not follow London's dictates. Well, let's be clear for all on this, the days of Empire are gone forever and the people of the world shall be allowed to settle their affairs in a way that suits them.
Howe: That view is naive at best, and foolhardy in all ways....
King George VII did not help the British political debate when, at the opening of an Islamic Housing Society, he suggested that Britain had "evolved to the place that we can allow others to decide their own affairs. Our nation's prestige need no longer rest on the laurels of how much of this planet's surface we control with our military, but by the productive interaction of our people with others - treating everyone on an equal footing and understanding that each society must solve its difficulties in unique ways that stem from its own experience. Britons may not always like the results of this, but then it is not our place to choose only the outcomes we prefer."
This latter speech lead Prime Minister Healey to remark (in private) "This King is going to make us into a Republic, whether he intends it or not."
France meanwhile actively courted the Iraqi regime as the sole regional power capable of countering the disastrous fall of the Al-Saud regime. This immediately raised hackles in Washington, where Iraq was regarded as a Soviet puppet regime (not without some basis). An American counter-proposal to present Iran as an alternative to Iraq as a regional intercessor faltered on the fact that in light of its own recent political upheaval and continuing internal instability, the Iranian regime was in no position to impose itself on a foreign revolution. There were some well-founded fears among Iran’s post-Shah leadership (who were by no means united amongst themselves on any issue) that any heavy handed action by Iran in Arabia (save on the Sh’ite question), and especially any effort as an enforcer of what was likely to be viewed by many Iranians as a western lead anti-Islamic counter revolution, would destabilize an already tenuous situation at home. Mehdi Bazargan went so far as to state what was largely unsaid: “If we sent our Army to Arabia today, the mullahs will be in command here tomorrow.” Many pooh-poohed Bazargan as an alarmist, until he was assassinated six days later by a religious extremist follower of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. Bazargan’s vital point was that any attempt by Iran to actually stop Arabia’s Revolution could well spark one in Iran.
President Mitterrand would later claim that the Iraqis were the only local force of any consequence willing to do the job. At first he approached the Egyptians, but was told in no uncertain terms that they did not want any part of it. He received a somewhat more muted but essentially similar response from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan. For these Arab regimes – all variously afraid of the spread of an Arabian Revolution (just as the Syrian version had ruffled them six years earlier) – it nonetheless seemed impolitic to be seen as helping a western, non-Islamic effort, to stop an Islamic revolution, especially in the geographic heart of Islam. Morocco and Jordan had co-operated with the western effort in Syria in various forms (as had Egypt under Sadat), and in return these regimes had been the subject of excoriation and condemnation by their own home grown religious conservatives and extremists. As the former American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger put it around that time “the (moderate) Arabs have all decided to be Swiss in this matter.”
Getting Israel to intervene was unthinkable, and Turkey was no more politically capable of such a venture than Iran.
Mitterrand therefore turned to the Iraqis as a way of exerting military force to counter the Arab Revolution while trying to keep it from being seen as a western lead counter-revolution. The French President knew instinctively that outside force could unite the Arabs as a matter of ethnic and religious resolve, so the better to let a fellow Arab state do the dirty work. His problem was that neither President Wallace or Secretary Jackson agreed with his reasoning, and they intensely disliked his choice of surrogate. President Gavin had committed to a multinational intervention in the Syrian crisis in part to control Soviet reach into the Middle East (his debatable tactic had been to make the Soviets a partner in that intervention), but Mitterrand seemed to be reversing that, giving a Soviet client potential control of the richest oil fields on the planet.
Mitterrand did meet with the Soviet Foreign Minister Valerian Zorin, on the question, but otherwise kept his distance from the Soviets, in part to assuage cold war fears in Washington. Zorin seems to have communicated no objection from Moscow to an Iraqi move south, but this would hardly have been regarded as good news in Washington.
Apart from wresting control of the oil fields from religious fanatics, the French President seemed to have had an idea of using the situation to re-set the balance of power in the Middle East by inserting France as a new patron of the Iraqi state, with perhaps the long-term idea that France could replace the Soviets as the Iraqis principal patron, and as such the French could increase their prominence as a power broker in the region. Certainly if Iraq controlled Arabia (and especially its oil fields) and the Baghdad regime felt it owed Paris something, this could increase the global authority of Mitterrand’s government on a host of issues.
Italy, West Germany, Japan and Canada were all concerned about the Arabian Revolution, as all depended on imported oil for their economic well-being, but none was equipped to act in support of a western military action. The Syrian intervention had left bad feelings in Italy, whose Communist government was in any event more concerned with its own political survival. The West Germans were unwilling to commit military force: they were still under the shadow of the Second World War, and any foreign military action was a deeply divisive and emotional issue among the German people, one the Kohl government was unwilling to open up. Japan had no military force, and Canada’s was relatively small, and what their was of it had already been committed to operations in Cyprus and Hong Kong. The new government of Prime Minister Lougheed did offer the Americans a hospital unit, a communications unit and a naval support vessel, which were based in the United Arab Emirates, but this was the extent of what Canada had to offer at the time.
This presented the western impasse on the day Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein lead his armies into the Arabian peninsula.
Iran’s Covert Action
Acting in concert with a number of religious figures in Iran – most notably the Ayatollah Mahmoud Taleghani, a persistent critic of both the Shah and the new government – Iran supplied arms and assistance to the Sh’ite rebels who rose-up against the revolutionary government in Riyadh. While there seems to have been genuine sympathy and concern for their Sh’ite coreligionists caught-up in a radical, Sunni-lead theocracy, the Iranian government cynically exploited the situation to divert religious critics at home and build-up its pro-religious credentials. At the same time Iran exploited the collapse of the Arabian oil industry to ramp-up its own production and cast aside OPEC quotas. For these reasons the Iranians were intent on prolonging the crisis for as long as possible.
The Global Oil Market and OPEC
The Arabian Revolution, and the subsequent disruption of supply from both the Kuwaiti and Arabian oil fields, initially sent a shock through international oil markets and spiked prices upward. The invasion of Kuwait and then Arabia by the Iraqi military only aggravated the situation, as there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what the Iraqis would do with control over so vast an oil reserve. In the initial occupation of Kuwait and the anti-oil Jihad of the Revolutionary government in Arabia, followed by a Sh’ite counter-rising in many of the oil centers of Arabia, seriously disrupted supply from these sources. The Iraqi military invasion only added to the disruption.
Other OPEC nations, notably Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran began producing more oil – well in excess of their previous OPEC quotas – and this, over the longer term, stabilized and started to bring down oil prices, although periodic “oil shocks” continued to rattle the international economy well into 1981. Non OPEC producers such as the United States, the Soviet Union, Norway and Mexico also sought to profit from the situation by opening-up their reserves to further production and sale.
Iraq quickly joined this group, producing more oil from its own domestic sources, in order to pay for its military actions in the South.
The original OPEC embargo had come into force in 1973 in response to the Agnew Administration’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War and in its occupation of Damascus at the end of that conflict. When the Gavin Administration organized an international force to put down a radical religious rebellion in Syria (and prevent Syria from becoming a failed state) the embargo had been continued as an expression of Arab and Islamic solidarity against western intervention in an Arab nation. The Persian Shah of Iran had chaffed at this restriction and sought to circumvent it, as did non-Muslim (or Muslim majority) members such as Nigeria and Venezuela.
After the Iraqi invasion of first Kuwait and then Arabia, this solidarity collapsed, with Libya and Algeria alone adhering to the old embargo, although Algeria soon gave up on it too. The changes of early 1979 were so quick and dramatic that the embargo had now lost all meaning, and the international oil market became more of a free-for-all. It was the considered by many to be the beginning of the end for OPEC as an effective cartel.
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From Anonymous Behind the Fortress Walls
The executive committee met on the Arabian question shortly after the Iraqi invasion. Comrade Mikhail Andreyevich Suslov was absent due to illness. The official story was that he had contracted food poisioning during recent visit to Cuba. This was not wholly the truth, as Mikhail Andreyevich's infirmities caused by advancing age were begining to show themselves. Konstantin Ustinovich Chernenko sat in his place, but he was a toady whom no one respected. With Mikhail Andreyevich's absence, and despite Yuri Vladimirovich Andropov's presence, the discussion was more frank than recent meetings had been.
"With the Iraqis liberating the Kuwaitis and Arabians from feudal monarchies, we can expect to spread, via our Iraqi allies, the message of socialist revolution over a wider area of the Middle East," Konstantin Ustinovich read from Mikhail Andreyevich's message.
Even Yuri Vladimirovich scoffed at this, but it was the foreign minister, Valerian Alexandrovich Zorin, who said what most at the meeting thought.
"We must be clear that the Ba'ath revolutionaries who rule Iraq are only marginally part of the socialist community - if at all. They have killed many of our ideological comrades, and the current ascendant, the Vice President Saddam Hussein, who is leading this military adventure of theirs, has been courting the French, who are seeking to make their own inroads of Empire from this."
"Will the French influence this Saddam?" Yuri Vladomirovich asked.
"They may," Valerian Alexandrovich conceded.
"Why? Have we not contributed much to his military machine? Does he not owe us his loyalty for this?"
Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov, the Deputy Premier, responded nervously. "He has also acquired arms stocks from the French, and these have proven to be more reliable in his campaign, at least according to our sources with ties to the Iraqi military." Yuri Vladomirovich's iron gaze fell on the Defence Minister General Viktor Georgiyevich Kulikov.
"The Iraqis do not take of the weapons properly. It is their own fault," Viktor Georgiyevich retorted.
"If we can exert control over the Iraqis we can expect them to prusue a militant policy with respect to oil prices - especially with a large percentage of the world's supply under their control," Nikolai Ivanovich offered. "But if the French gain influence, then we can expect them to lobby for lower oil prices. This will not only affect world markets but also our cash flows."
"As I have said, the Iraqis are an unpredictable people," Valerian Alexandrovich reiterated. "We may see them as clients, but they do not view themselves in this light. Indeed this Saddam Hussein views himself as non-aligned."
"I am never surprised by the ungrateful attitude of these backward black asses," Yuri Vladomirovich remarked. "We must see if there are alternatives to this Saddam whom we can support. Make it a top priority," he said to Vitaly Vasilyevich Fedorchuk, the head of the KGB. "And you," he added, shifting his steely gaze once more on Viktor Georgiyevich, "must do a better job of not only selling our weapons to them, but making sure they are completely dependent upon them."
You could see the strain in Viktor Georgiyevich's face at this near impossible command, but with a great deal of discipline he held in check his temper and said nothing.
"We will secure our place in the oil market," Yuri Vladomirovich said. "Perhaps it is time that we had a greater voice through OPEC or some other such agency."
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From The Jihad War by Thomas Friedman
Many in the west were astonished by the speed of the Saudi collapse when it came and the slow response of the western powers in the four months between the Hajj riots in November 1978 (the event which precipitated the fall of the Al Saud) and the Iraqi Invasion of February 1979. In part the very speed of the Al Saud collapse – an unexpected event in most western capitals despite the previous warnings - precipitated a cautious reaction. However to fully understand the events it is important to place them in context.
The Religious-Political situation in Saudi Arabia
Political and social power in Saudi Arabia rested in three groups: the royal (Al Saud) family, the Ulema and the tribal leaders.
The royal family dominated the political system. The family’s vast numbers allowed it to control most of the kingdom’s important posts and to have an involvement and presence at all levels of government. The number of princes is estimated to be anything from 7,000 upwards, with the most power and influence being wielded by the 200 or so male descendants of King Abdul Aziz. The key ministries were generally reserved for the royal family,as Arnold] were the thirteen regional governorships. Long term political and government appointments, (some senior ministers – all of whom are sons of the founding King – have held certain portfolios most of the lives, such as such as King Abdullah, who had been Commander of the National Guard from 1963 until he ascended to the throne in 1977, Crown Prince Sultan, Minister of Defence and Aviation since 1962 and Prince Salman, who has been Governor of the Riyadh Region since 1962. This practice has resulted in the creation of "power fiefdoms" for senior princes and created silos of power around individual figures rather than a more open, collaborative government. Inter-departmental activities often had to go through the ministers directly, even on the most trivial of matters. As a consequence, when push came to shove, there were ministries loyal to individual princes (or completely demoralized when their patron fled the country) but no national government to speak of distinguishable from the Al Saud princes themselves.
In the absence of national elections and political parties, politics in Saudi Arabia took place in two distinct arenas: within the royal family, the Al Saud, and between the royal family and the rest of Saudi society. The royal family is politically divided by factions based on clan loyalties, personal ambitions and ideological differences. The most powerful clan faction is known as the 'Sudairi Seven', comprising the late Crown Prince Fahd and his full brothers and their descendants. Ideological divisions include issues over the speed and direction of reform, and whether the role of the ulema should be increased or reduced. There are also divisions within the family over who should succeed King Abdullah in the post of Crown Prince.
This in fact created the “Crown Prince crisis” of 1977-78 which only further served to undermine the political authority of the Al Saud. The Sudari faction were not aligned with the revolutionaries - in fact Prince Bandar ibn Aziz and Juhyaman al-Qtabi were equally as vocal in denouncing them as part of the whole oligarchy - but members of thr group - and especially Prince Nayef, who was the leading Sudari candidate for the post of Crown Prince - believed they could use the unrest being created by the firebrand preachers to their advantage. Prince Nayef, who became Interior Minister after King Faisal's assassination in 1975, was personally committed to maintaining Saudi Arabia's conservative Wahhabi values. Of the senior princes, he was probably the least comfortable with the reformist tendencies which Abdullah had pursued as Crown Prince under the ailing King Khalid and after he became King himself. The evidence is that Prince Nayef did the most to turn the Mutaween (Religious Police) and the Saudi Army against the regime, believing that he could then take command of these forces as a more conservative leader than King Abdullah and his circle, perhaps to the point of supplanting King Addullah as monarch in what would have amounted to the first coup in Saudi history. That being the case, Prince Nayef and his supporters clearly underestimated - or chose to ignore - the radicalism and anti-monarchy position of the revolutionaries, who were not prepared to substitute one Saudi King with another, no matter how conservative he presented himself as being. Instead they took Prince Nayef's undermining of the religious police in particular, but also the Army (which, unlike the elite National Guard, drew its members from the lower orders of society - the same base that was embracing ? and ? message) and turned it to their favor, in effect leveraging palace intrigue into a serious threat to the regime which neither the King's supporters nor Prince Nayef's fully realized until it was too late.
The significance of the ulema (the body of Islamic religious leaders and jurists) is derived from the central role of religion in Saudi society. It has been said that Islam is more than a religion, it is a way of life in Saudi Arabia, and, as a result, the influence of the ulema is pervasive. In 1978-79 Saudi Arabia was unique in giving the ulema a direct role in government. Not only is royal succession subject to the approval of the ulema, so are all new laws (royal decrees). The ulema have also influenced major executive decisions, for example the imposition of the oil embargo in 1973 and the continued opposition to foreign occupation in Syria between 1974 and 1979. The ulema plays a major role in the judicial and education systems and has a monopoly of authority in the sphere of religious and social morals.
The ulema have historically been led by the Al ash-Sheikh, the country's leading religious family. The Al ash-Sheikh are the descendants of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, the 18th century founder of the Wahhabi form of Sunni Islam which is today dominant in Saudi Arabia. The family is second in prestige only to the Al Saud (the royal family) with whom they formed a "mutual support pact" and power-sharing arrangement nearly 300 years ago. The pact, which persists to this day, is based on the Al Saud maintaining the Al ash-Sheikh's authority in religious matters and upholding and propagating Wahhabi doctrine. In return, the Al ash-Sheikh support the Al Saud's political authority thereby using its religious-moral authority to legitimize the royal family's rule. There has been a high degree of intermarriage between the two families, which has served to strengthen the bonds between the two clans, and reinforced the authority of each within their own areas of responsibility.
By the 1970s, as a result of oil wealth and the modernization of the country initiated by King Faisal, important changes to Saudi society were under way and the power of the ulema was in decline, which many of the senior clerics had come to resent. This in part explained their support for the radical preachers al-Otabi and Abdullah Hamid al Qahtani. Furthermore, when the aesthetic Prince Bandar began to signal his support for the radical message (he later argued that the message was not radical at all, rather that the “radicals” were in fact restoring an older, purer form of the Islamic faith which had been corrupted by oil wealth and western influences) he provided the ulema with an alternate center of authority within their traditional alliance with the House of Saud. It is important to remember that Prince Bandar was a son of King Ibn Saud and had been passed over for the throne because of his devotion to religious scholarship and what, in the west, would be called the life of a monk. Where these had been vices to the royal family, they were in fact virtues to the rising tide of fundamentalist religion and secular rejectionism. Al-Otabial-Qahtani provided the firebrand message, but Bandar’s support allowed the ulema to shift their support within the House of Saud and so line-up with a revolution while at the same time not breaking with hundreds of years of tradition, or violating the tight family bonds between the two. and
Outside of the House of Al Saud, participation in the political process is limited to a relatively small segment of the population and takes the form of the royal family consulting with the ulema, tribal sheikhs and members of important commercial families on major decisions. This process is not reported by the Saudi media. In theory, all males of the age of majority have a right to petition the king directly through the traditional tribal meeting known as the majlis. In many ways, the approach to government differs little from the traditional system of tribal rule. Tribal identity remains strong and, outside of the royal family, political influence is frequently determined by tribal affiliation, with tribal sheikhs maintaining a considerable degree of influence over local and national events. Although they supported the royal house throughout, tribal leaders walked a fine line between that loyalty and an increasing support for the radicals among the mass of Saudis, especially those of the lower classes. They also took sides in the palace intrigue going on between Prince Nayef and the King. As a result the sheiks dithered and temporized, the result being that they undercut the last of the political support that the royal family had. This again was not readily apparent until the crunch came in November 1978. Only a few prescient scholars of Saudi politics foresaw what was happening and warned about it, and they were largely dismissed as alarmists in the West and as subversives by the Saudis themselves. Prince Nayef even called their warnings "black lies emanating from the Zionists to destroy the people of Islam."
Since the reign of King Faisal the Saudis had tried to maintain stability through leadership that has struck a careful balance between encouraging modernisation whilst respecting the conservatism of Saudi society. For example, whilst Faisal introduced radio and television to Saudi Arabia he ‘ordered large portions of programming time be devoted to religious instruction and readings from the Quran. Kings Khalid and Abdullah reinforce this, but a subtle change took place - they had the state broadcaster emphasise Quarn passages which could be interpreted as being pro-refrom, or at least leading in that direction. For conservatives - in a much broader circle than just the Sudaris or the revolutionists, but among some members of the ulema too - this was a red flag which suggested that Abdullah was moving toward a more liberal Islam (he wasn't necessarily, but like so much of the revolutionary fervor perception was manipulated to support the radical cause).
What undercut this were persistent rumors being spread by radicals (abetted by the Sudari faction) that the royal family was converting to Christiantiy or - worse from an Arab perspective - Judaism. That there was no substance to such a charge was quickly lost amidst rumor and rhetoric, especially in the mosques and at the street level. Evidence was produced in the form of a doctored photo of King Faisal supposedly shaking hands with an Israeli official, and the repeated "discovery" of secret stashes of Bibles and Torahs in places supposedly controlled by the royal family. Over the course of the three years from King Faisal's death to the Revolution such rumors - backed by the manufactured 'evidence" became like an acid undercutting what popular support the al-Saud faimly (both the King and, ironically the Sudari group as well) had left. It became popular to blame the Kingdom's many social problems - especially corruption and the unequal distribution of oil wealth - on this supposed "Crusader-Zionist" conspiracy to turn the home of the Holy Places away from Islam. By 1978 al-Otabi in particular was spreading a firebrand message that the King and his brothers were conspiring to bring about a new and final crusade against all Islam - to wipe it out - and that the Syrian occupation had been but the first step in this plan.
All of this culminated in the Hajj riots in the third week of November 1978. When the riots began (they began as a dispute between some Arab and Pakistani pilgrims over access to water), the royal regime tried to move to exert control, while the Sudari faction - which believed it had solid control over the Mutaween - held them back, allowing the riots to go on for a time, beleving this would weaken the King's postion. What they didn't count on was Prince Bandar and al-Otabi then turning this seeming lack of action back on the entire regime. In a sermon probably influenced by Bandar's writings, at-Otabi referred to the on-going violence against the faithful, and the regime's lack of action to stop it, as a sure sign that the King had given-up on Islam and was punishing the faithful in furtherance of a Zionist plot. In the charged atmosphere of the Hajj, and the violence going on, these otherwise over-the-top charges took hold in the popular mind, especially among the Mutaween and the Army ranks, because the previous years' proselytizing by al-Otabi and al-Qahtani on the subject had prepared them to believe it.
As the regime lost control of the Mutaween and the Army, and the National Guard failed to put down the rising (which was joined by many foreign muslims who shifted from riot to aiding the revolution under the guidance of al-Otabi, who had lead them to believe that the rioting was inspired by some evil plot by the al-Saud to allow Mecca to fall to the Zionists) the royal government paniced. Haunted by what had happened by the Iraqi King Faisal in 1958, and by the situation in Syria, the King and several ministers decided to flee, though they claimed that they planned to return once they could consolidate their forces. More than likely they expected the Revolution to burn out, or to receive foreign military assistance in reclaiming the throne once the revolutionaries had fallen out amongst themselves and proved that they couldn't govern. King Abdullah elected not to stay though because his security could no longer be guaranteed, and he did not wish to give himself up as a martyr to the revolutionaries.
No sooner had the Revolutionaries taken control and established their Islamic Caliphate of Arabia (or Islamic Emirate of Arabia as some preferred - they eschewed the word "Republic" as an infidel term and therefore un-Islamic) than they faced uprisings of their own. First the Sunni fanatics began to crack down on the substantial Shia minority in the country, which caused the Shia to take-up arms in their own defence. Both al-Otabi and al-Qahtani were firebrands in their belief that the Shias were "heretics" and had to be rooted out and destroyed in the name of a purer Sunni Islam. Then the Revolutionary Majlis decided to destroy the oil infrastructure- again as an act of Islamic purification- from which the Shia derived their livelihood, and a full scale civil war began.
That situation was soon changed when the Iraqis invaded and were, despite being lead by Sunnis themselves, greeted as liberators and protectors by the Shia.
Reactions Among the Western Powers
The rapid fall of the Al-Saud regime in November 1978 lead to differing reactions among the western powers, which in turn lead to a prolonged period of negotiation that was only preempted by the Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia at the end of February 1979. No less than the Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein, who lead the initial Iraqi military surge into Saudi Arabia personally, accused the west of “inaction” and “dithering.” Both King Hussein of Jordan and Prime Minister Begin of Israel were equally as vocal in their denunciation of western sluggishness in response to the crisis.
Key to the western lethargy is to understand the causes behind the divisions between various western powers, and how this lead to endless rounds of seemingly unproductive diplomacy.
The United States, with perhaps the most to lose given its close ties to the Al-Saud family and reliance upon them for regional security, was paralyzed at the very top. The Saudi Revolution coincided with a constitutional crisis in which an ill President Wallace was temporarily replaced by his Vice President Nicholas Katzenbach. Katzenbach, who controlled U.S. foreign policy through much of November and into early December, was reluctant to act without a western consensus, one which rapidly eluded him. This happened in part because of the position of other powers, and in part because his legitimacy as a leader and policy-maker was subject to question as the Vice President was challenged by President Wallace, who successfully reclaimed his office in December.
President Wallace was ill, and in some accounts it has been suggested that his mental capabilities were sporadic during much of this period. Once Katzenbach ceased to be the acting President, control of U.S. foreign policy fell to U.S. Secretary of State Henry Jackson. In part his own personal style, and in part the wariness of other nations, lead to a situation where a consensus eluded the Secretary of State before the Iraqi invasion.
The U.S. did have a robust military response, in terms of the deployment of U.S. Navy and air support capacity to Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and North Yemen during this four month period. The U.S. expanded its military profile in the Gulf area over these four months, thanks largely to the efforts of Secretary of Defense Graham Claytor. Acting with seeming independence from (or disregard of) Wallace, Katzenbach or Jackson, Secretary Claytor ordered the increase American military presence in the region. The forcefulness of his preemptive response re-assured many Gulf states, but quickly raised red-flags in European capitals over U.S. intentions to intervene against the Arabian Revolution with military force, a policy option some U.S. allies regarded with dread.
Secretary Claytor’s unilateral orders may have stilled twitchy nerves in the UAE and Oman, but they won him no friends within the Wallace Administration or among both liberals and hawks on Capitol Hill. Liberals viewed the increased military presence as provocative, while hawks became obsessed over the idea that Claytor hadn’t gone far enough, and in the even lacked Presidential authority (from either Katzenbach or Wallace). Unhelpful to Claytor’s case was a row that broke out about the same time with some ultra conservatives, who were concerned that the Secretary of Defense was going soft on the question of prosecuting homosexual members of the U.S. armed forces. This ended in an ugly row between the Secretary and certain members of the Senate Armed Services committee on the eve of the Iraqi invasion.
The effect of this was (and Saddam Hussein made decisive reference to it on a number of occasions) was to make the American fist look empty and therefore useless. Neither Wallace nor Jackson gave any support to Claytor in the weeks of January and early February, when their support of the Defense Secretary could have underwritten clout behind the U.S. military moves. Instead, the political game in Washington gave to Claytor’s reinforcements the look of an empty threat unlikely to be acted upon.
Britain, the other historic power in the Gulf, took a very hands-off attitude as the Arabian Revolution evolved. Part of this was the result of limited British military resources already having been stretched too thin by occupation duties in Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Portugal (Madeira), Syria and Hong Kong. As a result there was to be no large scale British military support for the Gulf Kingdoms because the proverbial cupboard was already bare. However, had there been the resources, the Labour government then in power showed a decided disinclination to use them. Save for Northern Ireland and Cyprus, all of these foreign missions had been inherited by Labour from their Conservative predecessors in 1977. Since that election, the Healey government had been looking at ways to draw down on these overseas commitments. Some in the left-wing of the Labour caucus were quite vocal in their belief that the United Kingdom should remove itself from all of them, sighting them as relics of an Imperial age now long past. The recent – and then still on-going (six years) – occupation of Syria (which had started in an effort to stop another such fundamentalist revolution in Syria in late 1973), with its attendant violence and “quagmire” perception, had left an especially jaundiced view of military ventures in the Middle East, not just among left-wing activists but with many average Britons, who had rejected the previous Heath government at the polls in part because of the unpopularity of its foreign policy.
Prime Minister Denis Healey had to balance a conflicting set of priorities between the left and center wings of his parliamentary party, and as such was reluctant to take any divisive or controversial stands which might further divide his government. The Conservative opposition may have been quite vocal in their support for more forceful intervention, but lacking any clear leadership at this point (they were still divided amongst themselves over the future direction their party should take on many policy questions) they were hardly ready to take back the government should Healey’s fall over the question (which the Prime Minister took steps to insure wouldn’t happen). The more interim Conservative leader Geoffrey Howe spoke in favour of a muscular response, the lower his poll numbers went. When Liberal front bench figure Kenneth Clarke spoke of “a diplomatic and economic solution” to a “local” and “politically evolutionary” problem, the more his numbers went up, a point not lost on Number Ten.
On the international stage this translated into a combination of dissemblance and obfuscations on the part of the British Foreign Secretary James Callaghan, who in talks with his U.S. and NATO counterparts, stressed the need for a consensus approach that favoured “influence” and “limited sanctions” over any direct intervention. The U.S. Secretary of State Henry Jackson called this “cotton mouth diplomacy” and “mush-minded”, both of which observations did not endear him or his government to their British counterparts. Relations between Jackson and Callaghan, which had been good up until this point, started to decline in face of the differing views of how to react to the Arabian Revolution.
Geoffrey Howe MP (Cons.- East Surrey): Why will this government not recognize the special nature of this crisis, which not only threatens stability in Arabia but throughout the Middle East, and act? British consumers and British workers are already being affected by the rise in oil prices caused by this uprising by a bunch of fanatics, and that alone creates an imperative for His Majesty's government to act before this gets out of hand. Yet, instead of acting, this government sits on its hands. Why?
James Callaghan MP (Foreign Secretary): The action the honourable member is asking for is military action, which would be highly inappropriate and an overreaction to a local problem. If we were to charge in with the troops - as well the honourable members past government might have done - we will only aggravate an already volatile situation, and then the British people and British industry would indeed suffer from the rapid escalation of oil prices. Our course, Mr. Speaker, is one of caution and diplomacy which may lack the bang-and-bluff the opposition would prefer, but which will see us through to a peaceful and sustainable resolution to this crisis.
Keith Joseph MP (Cons. - Leeds North East): Fanatics do not respond to diplomacy, no matter how well intentioned. This lot have as their design nothing less than a complete Islamic revolution or complete martyrdom in its cause. That is what they claim day and night in their pronouncements. Well, that martyrdom may well drag down all of our allies and partners in the region and can lead to no good for the wider world. I call upon this government to show some backbone and to act now, before it is too late.
Barbara Castle MP (Deputy Prime Minister): Oh, we hear the cries of Empire. In light of a people throwing off the shackles of an oppressive, medieval monarchy, our friends across the aisle wish only to unleash the sword of British Empire and vanquish those who will not follow London's dictates. Well, let's be clear for all on this, the days of Empire are gone forever and the people of the world shall be allowed to settle their affairs in a way that suits them.
Howe: That view is naive at best, and foolhardy in all ways....
King George VII did not help the British political debate when, at the opening of an Islamic Housing Society, he suggested that Britain had "evolved to the place that we can allow others to decide their own affairs. Our nation's prestige need no longer rest on the laurels of how much of this planet's surface we control with our military, but by the productive interaction of our people with others - treating everyone on an equal footing and understanding that each society must solve its difficulties in unique ways that stem from its own experience. Britons may not always like the results of this, but then it is not our place to choose only the outcomes we prefer."
This latter speech lead Prime Minister Healey to remark (in private) "This King is going to make us into a Republic, whether he intends it or not."
France meanwhile actively courted the Iraqi regime as the sole regional power capable of countering the disastrous fall of the Al-Saud regime. This immediately raised hackles in Washington, where Iraq was regarded as a Soviet puppet regime (not without some basis). An American counter-proposal to present Iran as an alternative to Iraq as a regional intercessor faltered on the fact that in light of its own recent political upheaval and continuing internal instability, the Iranian regime was in no position to impose itself on a foreign revolution. There were some well-founded fears among Iran’s post-Shah leadership (who were by no means united amongst themselves on any issue) that any heavy handed action by Iran in Arabia (save on the Sh’ite question), and especially any effort as an enforcer of what was likely to be viewed by many Iranians as a western lead anti-Islamic counter revolution, would destabilize an already tenuous situation at home. Mehdi Bazargan went so far as to state what was largely unsaid: “If we sent our Army to Arabia today, the mullahs will be in command here tomorrow.” Many pooh-poohed Bazargan as an alarmist, until he was assassinated six days later by a religious extremist follower of the late Ayatollah Khomeini. Bazargan’s vital point was that any attempt by Iran to actually stop Arabia’s Revolution could well spark one in Iran.
President Mitterrand would later claim that the Iraqis were the only local force of any consequence willing to do the job. At first he approached the Egyptians, but was told in no uncertain terms that they did not want any part of it. He received a somewhat more muted but essentially similar response from Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Jordan. For these Arab regimes – all variously afraid of the spread of an Arabian Revolution (just as the Syrian version had ruffled them six years earlier) – it nonetheless seemed impolitic to be seen as helping a western, non-Islamic effort, to stop an Islamic revolution, especially in the geographic heart of Islam. Morocco and Jordan had co-operated with the western effort in Syria in various forms (as had Egypt under Sadat), and in return these regimes had been the subject of excoriation and condemnation by their own home grown religious conservatives and extremists. As the former American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger put it around that time “the (moderate) Arabs have all decided to be Swiss in this matter.”
Getting Israel to intervene was unthinkable, and Turkey was no more politically capable of such a venture than Iran.
Mitterrand therefore turned to the Iraqis as a way of exerting military force to counter the Arab Revolution while trying to keep it from being seen as a western lead counter-revolution. The French President knew instinctively that outside force could unite the Arabs as a matter of ethnic and religious resolve, so the better to let a fellow Arab state do the dirty work. His problem was that neither President Wallace or Secretary Jackson agreed with his reasoning, and they intensely disliked his choice of surrogate. President Gavin had committed to a multinational intervention in the Syrian crisis in part to control Soviet reach into the Middle East (his debatable tactic had been to make the Soviets a partner in that intervention), but Mitterrand seemed to be reversing that, giving a Soviet client potential control of the richest oil fields on the planet.
Mitterrand did meet with the Soviet Foreign Minister Valerian Zorin, on the question, but otherwise kept his distance from the Soviets, in part to assuage cold war fears in Washington. Zorin seems to have communicated no objection from Moscow to an Iraqi move south, but this would hardly have been regarded as good news in Washington.
Apart from wresting control of the oil fields from religious fanatics, the French President seemed to have had an idea of using the situation to re-set the balance of power in the Middle East by inserting France as a new patron of the Iraqi state, with perhaps the long-term idea that France could replace the Soviets as the Iraqis principal patron, and as such the French could increase their prominence as a power broker in the region. Certainly if Iraq controlled Arabia (and especially its oil fields) and the Baghdad regime felt it owed Paris something, this could increase the global authority of Mitterrand’s government on a host of issues.
Italy, West Germany, Japan and Canada were all concerned about the Arabian Revolution, as all depended on imported oil for their economic well-being, but none was equipped to act in support of a western military action. The Syrian intervention had left bad feelings in Italy, whose Communist government was in any event more concerned with its own political survival. The West Germans were unwilling to commit military force: they were still under the shadow of the Second World War, and any foreign military action was a deeply divisive and emotional issue among the German people, one the Kohl government was unwilling to open up. Japan had no military force, and Canada’s was relatively small, and what their was of it had already been committed to operations in Cyprus and Hong Kong. The new government of Prime Minister Lougheed did offer the Americans a hospital unit, a communications unit and a naval support vessel, which were based in the United Arab Emirates, but this was the extent of what Canada had to offer at the time.
This presented the western impasse on the day Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein lead his armies into the Arabian peninsula.
Iran’s Covert Action
Acting in concert with a number of religious figures in Iran – most notably the Ayatollah Mahmoud Taleghani, a persistent critic of both the Shah and the new government – Iran supplied arms and assistance to the Sh’ite rebels who rose-up against the revolutionary government in Riyadh. While there seems to have been genuine sympathy and concern for their Sh’ite coreligionists caught-up in a radical, Sunni-lead theocracy, the Iranian government cynically exploited the situation to divert religious critics at home and build-up its pro-religious credentials. At the same time Iran exploited the collapse of the Arabian oil industry to ramp-up its own production and cast aside OPEC quotas. For these reasons the Iranians were intent on prolonging the crisis for as long as possible.
The Global Oil Market and OPEC
The Arabian Revolution, and the subsequent disruption of supply from both the Kuwaiti and Arabian oil fields, initially sent a shock through international oil markets and spiked prices upward. The invasion of Kuwait and then Arabia by the Iraqi military only aggravated the situation, as there was a great deal of uncertainty as to what the Iraqis would do with control over so vast an oil reserve. In the initial occupation of Kuwait and the anti-oil Jihad of the Revolutionary government in Arabia, followed by a Sh’ite counter-rising in many of the oil centers of Arabia, seriously disrupted supply from these sources. The Iraqi military invasion only added to the disruption.
Other OPEC nations, notably Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran began producing more oil – well in excess of their previous OPEC quotas – and this, over the longer term, stabilized and started to bring down oil prices, although periodic “oil shocks” continued to rattle the international economy well into 1981. Non OPEC producers such as the United States, the Soviet Union, Norway and Mexico also sought to profit from the situation by opening-up their reserves to further production and sale.
Iraq quickly joined this group, producing more oil from its own domestic sources, in order to pay for its military actions in the South.
The original OPEC embargo had come into force in 1973 in response to the Agnew Administration’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War and in its occupation of Damascus at the end of that conflict. When the Gavin Administration organized an international force to put down a radical religious rebellion in Syria (and prevent Syria from becoming a failed state) the embargo had been continued as an expression of Arab and Islamic solidarity against western intervention in an Arab nation. The Persian Shah of Iran had chaffed at this restriction and sought to circumvent it, as did non-Muslim (or Muslim majority) members such as Nigeria and Venezuela.
After the Iraqi invasion of first Kuwait and then Arabia, this solidarity collapsed, with Libya and Algeria alone adhering to the old embargo, although Algeria soon gave up on it too. The changes of early 1979 were so quick and dramatic that the embargo had now lost all meaning, and the international oil market became more of a free-for-all. It was the considered by many to be the beginning of the end for OPEC as an effective cartel.
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From Anonymous Behind the Fortress Walls
The executive committee met on the Arabian question shortly after the Iraqi invasion. Comrade Mikhail Andreyevich Suslov was absent due to illness. The official story was that he had contracted food poisioning during recent visit to Cuba. This was not wholly the truth, as Mikhail Andreyevich's infirmities caused by advancing age were begining to show themselves. Konstantin Ustinovich Chernenko sat in his place, but he was a toady whom no one respected. With Mikhail Andreyevich's absence, and despite Yuri Vladimirovich Andropov's presence, the discussion was more frank than recent meetings had been.
"With the Iraqis liberating the Kuwaitis and Arabians from feudal monarchies, we can expect to spread, via our Iraqi allies, the message of socialist revolution over a wider area of the Middle East," Konstantin Ustinovich read from Mikhail Andreyevich's message.
Even Yuri Vladimirovich scoffed at this, but it was the foreign minister, Valerian Alexandrovich Zorin, who said what most at the meeting thought.
"We must be clear that the Ba'ath revolutionaries who rule Iraq are only marginally part of the socialist community - if at all. They have killed many of our ideological comrades, and the current ascendant, the Vice President Saddam Hussein, who is leading this military adventure of theirs, has been courting the French, who are seeking to make their own inroads of Empire from this."
"Will the French influence this Saddam?" Yuri Vladomirovich asked.
"They may," Valerian Alexandrovich conceded.
"Why? Have we not contributed much to his military machine? Does he not owe us his loyalty for this?"
Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov, the Deputy Premier, responded nervously. "He has also acquired arms stocks from the French, and these have proven to be more reliable in his campaign, at least according to our sources with ties to the Iraqi military." Yuri Vladomirovich's iron gaze fell on the Defence Minister General Viktor Georgiyevich Kulikov.
"The Iraqis do not take of the weapons properly. It is their own fault," Viktor Georgiyevich retorted.
"If we can exert control over the Iraqis we can expect them to prusue a militant policy with respect to oil prices - especially with a large percentage of the world's supply under their control," Nikolai Ivanovich offered. "But if the French gain influence, then we can expect them to lobby for lower oil prices. This will not only affect world markets but also our cash flows."
"As I have said, the Iraqis are an unpredictable people," Valerian Alexandrovich reiterated. "We may see them as clients, but they do not view themselves in this light. Indeed this Saddam Hussein views himself as non-aligned."
"I am never surprised by the ungrateful attitude of these backward black asses," Yuri Vladomirovich remarked. "We must see if there are alternatives to this Saddam whom we can support. Make it a top priority," he said to Vitaly Vasilyevich Fedorchuk, the head of the KGB. "And you," he added, shifting his steely gaze once more on Viktor Georgiyevich, "must do a better job of not only selling our weapons to them, but making sure they are completely dependent upon them."
You could see the strain in Viktor Georgiyevich's face at this near impossible command, but with a great deal of discipline he held in check his temper and said nothing.
"We will secure our place in the oil market," Yuri Vladomirovich said. "Perhaps it is time that we had a greater voice through OPEC or some other such agency."
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Well that sequel probably'd be better than than OTL Smokey & the Bandit II. (Although I don't suppose it'd be too much to ask that Pontiac would have better taste TTL & not plaster that godawful screaming chicken decal across the hoods of the Trans Ams
)And things are certainly getting interesting in the ancient Chinese sense- a second "Cuban Missile Crisis" in the works, a different sort of Iran-Contra, Nixon & Agnew going farther off the rails, and fights with Congress among other things...
Well that sequel probably'd be better than than OTL Smokey & the Bandit II. (Although I don't suppose it'd be too much to ask that Pontiac would have better taste TTL & not plaster that godawful screaming chicken decal across the hoods of the Trans Ams
And things are certainly getting interesting in the ancient Chinese sense- a second "Cuban Missile Crisis" in the works, a different sort of Iran-Contra, Nixon & Agnew going farther off the rails, and fights with Congress among other things...
Yes, there are multiple flashpoints in this timeline going on right now. I also see Rhodesia, the brewing Portugese-Spanish confrontation, and of course China as sparking points for... unpleasantness.
The worst part is Pat Robertson and some other fundamentalists seem to be encouraging an apocalyptic view of things to their followers. The only sobering bit is that we can tell by the passages from the books written later in the TL that the Earth is left (relatively?) unradiated by the present day.
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