Wow that is very different from OTL
Yes it is - then again, what would you expect over a 100 years after the POD?
and I'm pretty sure that's not plausible if that plantation is typical.
Actually, the issue here is twofold, I believe - first, you are reading too much into what is in essence a work of fiction, one where the narrator is engaging in some hyperbole. The second issue is that the plantation in question, while not atypical per se, is on one end of a range of conditions on the plantations of the Dominion. If you will recall from our previous episodes, after the Slaver Uprising and the end of slavery, plantations where the planters had been on the worse end of the treatment spectrum (and often were the most vociferous supporters of the Confederation) often found their former slaves (and anyone else) unwilling to stay and work for them. They usually were in financial straits and had to sell out, usually to Loyalists or immigrating Brits. Some were able to restock with subcontinental Indian immigrants if they couldn't attract blacks back to the land. The blacks who left these plantations did a number of things - many ended up as workers or sharecroppers on other plantations with better reputations, some went west to scrape out their own farms, and some took up trades of various sorts, including work in the cities. This particular plantation in White Gold is one that fell on hard times after the Slaver Uprising, and has gone through at least a couple sets of hands, which is why there aren't that many blacks on this particular property (and in fact some are still around, but saved up enough to buy up parts of the old plantation and be free farmers). That's also why it was on the market and why the son of a former slave and trader was able to buy it (it was a bit of a deal). There are certainly other plantations like this, but there are also plenty of plantations (most in Loyalist family hands) that still have a substantial black workforce, though usually in a form of manorialism/sigeurial/sharecropper system. Those numbers too are starting to shift down as blacks of ambition seek other opportunities, and imported Indian labor is starting to make an impact in those areas as well, but much less so.
The DSA like every society of its era will be an agrarian one with over 75% living in rural areas. The Deep South at this time was 80% rural.
Now if the majority (51%) of blacks have left their former plantations (unlike OTL where most stayed as share croppers) you are talking about the movement of 2,000,000 people and the removal of half the labour force of the DSA main export industries. And if you've got every plantation "mostly" worked by Hindoo's then even with reduced manning we're talking about the import of at least 1,500,000 "Hindoo's" into the Deep South to replace them. That is migration on a massive scale. And would involve immense economic dislocation and enormous cost.
So the real numbers are probably at most half those (and that is an upper limit) - on the other hand, it is in fact a monumental shift in the demographics of the Dominion that is going on over the generations - again, I will note that it has been almost 40 years since this trend began. It will continue some, bolstered by Indians having children in the DSA (so not all have to be imported) and there is a degree of industrialization going on in the DSA, much more so than OTL South, to be sure, even if it is not in the league of the industrialization of the USA in the North or the British Isles.
Further more where are these 2,000,000 million former slaves going, assuming they are matching the 75% rural 25% urban split of the general population then the DSA has to be giving the the overwhelming majority of the land in the West to Blacks and if they are going to the cities then either the DSA is undergoing a China like industrial boom and urbanisation or a lot of blacks are going to be starving to death in the gutters.
See above. Actually, a large number of small farmers in the DSA are black, whether in the old South or in the West. Most whites in the DSA are not hardscrabble farmers, instead going into other trades or ranching (and guess who most of the ranch hands are). I think what you are underestimating is the fact of how many blacks have gone into small farming. And also the fact that the DSA no matter what else is and will remain as having a large black population, but with less cultural barriers to work they are showing up in all sorts of roles.
I would really recommend thinking about the numbers.
I shall, I shall - thank you for showing enough interest to speculate on some yourself!
It shows a nice bit of extrapolation, doesn't it?
Perhaps those are Yankee Cities?
Actually they are Southern cities (just not as many going there as the fiction passage may make some believe) - Dominion blacks aren't really in high demand in the USA.
The OTL US population was 31,443,321 in 1860 (I assume that was the timeframe of the book extract).
More like late 1870s, 1860s would be too soon to see this level of change.
This TL's US probably has about 22,000,000 including Canada.
I would place it a bit higher, with a higher proportion of French descended.
In OTL the US had an urbanization rate of 25% in 1870 (
source), so we can assume that the North which was more urbanised in OTL probably reaches that urbanisation rate in 1860. That means there are roughly 5 million urban citizens in TTL USA at this point.
Industrialization is a bit earlier and faster ITTL USA, but close enough for this discussion.
Now the influx of 2,000,0000 new urban citizens would be massively disruptive even in the unlikely event that the US lets them over the border.
Not that many and they are not going over the border really.
As for the DSA taking a population of 14 million (as opposed to 9 million in OTL)
Interesting population number, what is your thought there?
and putting many of those extra people in urban areas thus boosting the urbanisation rate from its OTL 15% to 20% the combined population of the DSA cities is still only 2 million.
Noted.
Now without Virgina there will be roughly 3,400,000 blacks still if 50.1% lave their plantations that is 1,600,001 people.
As mentioned, not nearly that number actually leave the land - what you do see happen is more of them having a siguerial relation with the planters rather than being straight up field hands, and a growing minority end up as small farmers in their own right.
The would still take up most of the good farmland in the West leaving little for DSA and British born whites who are realistically going to get priority,
Yes and no - whites in the DSA like owning land, but not working the land (except for the lower classes). So you will see more of the freeholds in the West in black hands. The ranches, the large spreads, on the other hand, will be in the hands of whites.
and even if you divided them between urban and rural areas with only half going west you and the rest going to urban areas then you are still talking about an influx that will overwhelm the jobs market.
See above - the numbers are nowhere near that dramatic. This is an evolution, not a revolution.
The number of Blacks coming off the land needs to come down dramatically.
That's before you even start on the financial implications of shipping over 1.6 million Indians.
Again, see above - the problem with your analysis as mentioned is that you overestimated the actual numbers based on an extrapolation of a romaticized story of one particular plantation on one end of a spectrum.
It could be that plantations in that area for some fluke of migration had mostly indian laborers, and not the entire DSA
See above for that explanation - it's not the area, but the type of plantation and owner history.
That would make much more sense. If you look at the West Indies some plantations fired all their share croppers and brought in Indians on contracts while most kept the share-croppers and didn't hire any Indians.
And this is much closer to the situation as it pertains in the DSA, except it usually wasn't firing as blacks choosing to leave, and the Indians being brought in over time to deal with that loss on some of the plantations, not all.
That suggests that the majority of negros have gone to the cities or the west.
Nope, just a fair number of the blacks on this plantation - and even that is a bit of an exageration on the part of the narrator.
Which frankly is ASB, as I hope I've shown above.
Now now, let's be nice! Again, you took a highly romanticized novel about one plantation and extrapolated that to an entire nation, with all the numbers in fact derived by you. You are right in claiming the numbers as you show are ASB - but you, my friend, provided those numbers, not I.
On the other hand, I am very flattered that you put all that time and effort into thinking about the logistics of this timeline. Based on the responses I have given you in return, what do you think are more realistic numbers to represent these trends in demographics in the DSA?
The reality is that while some will go to the cities or the West most will do what their OTL counter-parts in the Caribbean and Southern USA did which is work some the same land they used to but as share croppers.
Agreed.
The very worst masters will find themselves without a labour force
Read my mind! That is what happened to the original owners of that particular plantation.
and there will be a great deal of short term disruption but these are people who have limited skill sets,
The majority, yes, but there is a substantial minority with trade level skills on any plantation of size.
and the opportunities out west or in the cities are minimal.
I think there are more than you are giving the impression of here, but yes, they are not massive. But then again, as you say, the numbers who would actually be willing/able to take advantage of those opportunities are also smaller - overall I think they will balance out.
I suspect you'll find a similar division to OTL;
15% will leave, either to West or to urban areas.
I guess I should have kept reading!
I would say this estimate is reasonable, though with regional variations. Also over time it will shift upwards, closer to 20%
25% will take up unclaimed marginal farmland in their local area or rent under-used land off whites.
Also reasonable, though again it will tend to go up over time, maybe hitting 30%.
60% will be share-croppers.
Actually, this number is a bit high. About 10% will remain simple field hands, lacking the initiative to even share-crop. There's probably also about 10% who will stay on plantations but take up a variety of roles, such as overseers, blacksmithing, drivers for the wagons and/or barges for cotton, and of course servants for the big house. These will stay on the plantation but for room, board, and a wage rather than a crop.
Now then, you've got split those who are renting land to farm as opposed to those who are sharecropping. I would lump them together - so I would say overall you still have 60%, maybe more, working land owned by whites, but with differinig relations.
Incidentally post the Civil War plantation owners found they needed less share-croppers than slaves as share-croppers worked harder so they were able to keep production up with only 75% of their previous workforce (the amount of land under cotton went down post war as marginal land was no longer viable in the absence of slavery).
Which is good for the DSA immediately post Slaver Uprising, but unlike OTL, the demand for Southern Cotton will not be diminished by cotton from Egypt and India, but will in fact increase, so more land, even marginal land, will be put into cotton production over time. That will continue driving the importation and 'employment' of subcontinental Indians.
While I agree that expecting the black belt to be emptied by 1870 ITTL is pretty unlikely, I would expect the overall rural black population is lower than IOTL for two reasons.
1. The position of blacks economically is marginally better than the south IOTL, and far better politically. Thus we should expect it's easier for them to migrate.
Easier yes, but they also have more opportunities in situ than OTL, as well as a North that is a whole different country and thus isn't necessarily going to welcome them.
2. The openness of the west (and, I think Australia) to black settlers is unlike anything IOTL, where ethnic cleansing in the north set in only a few decades following emancipation.
True, but then again, the West that the DSA controls isn't as large or as fertile as the West available to the OTL USA (or TTL's USA for that matter).
Counterbalanced, however, is despite the DSA being a bit more urban and industrialized than the South IOTL, it's still not very urban or industrialized at all yet.
True as far as it goes - have to get some more updates about industrialization out....
And there are more immigrants coming in to the DSA than the southern states got from Europe, so it's hard to see the black draw to the cities being all that much greater than IOTL...yet. In another 50 years, it may be another story.
More from the Briitsh Isles, yes, more from Europe, no - those tend to go to the USA.
