The Anglo/American - Nazi War

[Winston Smith]

Oh boy they will need them ... they will need them to STOP THE FU*K flooding the markets with dirty cheap rare and not so rare metals, meanwhile the Indians will respond to threats of nulcear/kinetic bombing/spanking by saying that they will give the plans for the mining tech to the Chineese and South Americans or release them into the world completely if the always trigger happy A-4 pushes the button! See! No agressive escalation from Indias side is necessary!

The A4 isn't trigger happy. It's trigger sad; they don't want WW3, and are willing to do anything to prevent it. And you forget that that the A4 countries are all democracies, as is India. I agree with the other points you make, though.

 

[radaron]

New Zealand in OTL, has had exceptionally close ties to both the USA and Australia, economically and militarily. Are these ties still close now that Australia is in the A4? While New Zealand is unlikely to be a nuclear power, and a far smaller player than Australia or Canada, I would imagine it would actively participate in military (and associated scientific) affairs with the bigger players.

Also, if there is extensive sea bed mining, is there mining in Antarctica? I could imagine that continent as a point of contention between all sides, as India has direct access, while of the A4, only Australia is nearby.

 

[B_Munro]

Hokay - here is the map. Let me know if you see anything glaringly in contradiction with the text.

Bruce

 

[vultan]

I think it's a great map, Bruce!

 

[CalBear]

Hokay - here is the map. Let me know if you see anything glaringly in contradiction with the text.

Bruce

Brazil did what?

GREAT map. Perfect snarky comments in the legend.

 

[B_Munro]

Brazil did what?.

Joined the Cooperative of Independent States

GREAT map. Perfect snarky comments in the legend.

Thanks!

Bruce

 

[CalBear]

Joined the CIS.



...

Somehow I missed that completely.

Must have been hidden in all that American money that Brazil used to get for stuff before they bit the hand that fed them.



Oh, and Japan wasn't Third World, more like 6th.

 

[lloyd007]

Looks pretty good Munro, although there are way too many colored borders and a few errors imo...

1. India wouldn't have surpassed the US yet, it might be getting close, closer than China / US of OTL but not yet...

2. Ceylon is a part of India

3. Taiwan would not be part of China

4. IMO Rhodesia could / would be a single nation especially with the mass that is former French West Africa.

5. Poland would be restored to its 1939 size.

6. Not sure if the Balkans would be as 'Balkanized' after the Nazis were though with em... I have the suspicion that Serbian and probably Bosnian ethnicities are now extinct

7. I doubt the A4 would have let the Sudan have its OTL ethnic cleansing campaigns. I also doubt Eritrea would be independent of Ethiopia.

8. Brazil: "Screw national pride I have money!"

 

[B_Munro]

Somehow I missed that completely.

Must have been hidden in all that American money that Brazil used to get for stuff before they bit the hand that fed them.



.

Sort of the way the French are still our best buddies because of 1944?

(My impression was that Brazil had modernized up to at least South Korean standards by 2012: as such, it's a _big_ power by the standards of this battered world, and likely to be somewhat resentful of being a permanent subordinate of the US. Also, it's not an _enemy_ of the US now, as you keep reiterating re India: it's just made its opinion clear that it doesn't consider the US to be really suitable as the boss of them (and everyone else).

As to Japan, Japan is not Chad: I find the notion that a country as homogenous, as civilized, as hard-working, and well-educated as Japan can't pull itself up to at least Mexican standards of living given six decades rather absurd, unless the A4 are even bigger bastards than I give them credit for.

Bruce

 

[CalBear]

Sort of the way the French are still our best buddies because of 1944?

(My impression was that Brazil had modernized up to at least South Korean standards by 2012: as such, it's a _big_ power by the standards of this battered world, and likely to be somewhat resentful of being a permanent subordinate of the US. Also, it's not an _enemy_ of the US now, as you keep reiterating re India: it's just made its opinion clear that it doesn't consider the US to be really suitable as the boss of them (and everyone else).

As to Japan, Japan is not Chad: I find the notion that a country as homogenous, as civilized, as hard-working, and well-educated as Japan can't pull itself up to at least Mexican standards of living given six decades rather absurd, unless the A4 are even bigger bastards than I give them credit for.

Bruce

No, Japan is up to Third World ALT 2011, actually better than most of the 3rd World. It started however, from a spot that makes 2011 Somalia look like Switzerland.

 

[B_Munro]

Looks pretty good Munro, although there are way too many colored borders and a few errors imo...

1. India wouldn't have surpassed the US yet, it might be getting close, closer than China / US of OTL but not yet...

Well, Chinas going to catch up to us economically in a couple decades by most calculations: India's non-Commie modernization has a head start of what, three decades on OTL China? But perhaps so: after all, prosperity means there probably will be less Indians by 2012 than OTL (the demographic transition, etc.)

2. Ceylon is a part of India

Then Burma should be as well. Neither wanted to be part of India.

3. Taiwan would not be part of China

Didn't the US give it to Nationalist China?

4. IMO Rhodesia could / would be a single nation especially with the mass that is former French West Africa.

That's up to the British. And according to the Wiki, southern Rhodesia has been a seperate colony since the 1920s.

5. Poland would be restored to its 1939 size.

At the expense of the Belorussians and Ukrainians? The original post said it was reestablished in the "Polish General Government": I expanded it well beyond that.

6. Not sure if the Balkans would be as 'Balkanized' after the Nazis were though with em... I have the suspicion that Serbian and probably Bosnian ethnicities are now extinct

The Poles aren't, and the Balkans were a lower priority than the living space to the east... (now, no Belorussians, that might be a possibility...)

7. I doubt the A4 would have let the Sudan have its OTL ethnic cleansing campaigns.

Not for very long. Southern Sudan has been independent for quite a while, although it's only managed to establish stable democracy recently.

I also doubt Eritrea would be independent of Ethiopia.

The British handed it over to Ethiopia in 1952 OTL in defiance of local sentiments, to help keep Ethiopia in the Western camp during the early days of the Cold War. Not sure what happens ATL, but I don't see why it would be any likelier to happen than OTL: and surely the A4 aren't going to help the deeply undemocratic Selassie take away what autonomy the Eritreans might get? (He disregarded it OTL).

8. Brazil: "Screw national pride I have money!"

They're an "economic miracle", we are told. Hardly dependent on US handouts any more: or are you suggesting the A4 imposes embargoes on nations that join the Indians?

Bruce

 

[B_Munro]

No, Japan is up to Third World ALT 2011, actually better than most of the 3rd World. It started however, from a spot that makes 2011 Somalia look like Switzerland.

(Checked older posts)

Clarify that statement? My understanding was that they were essentially surviving on subsistence agriculture till 1954, but at least they weren't plagued by warlords and droughts and the occasional Ethiopian invasion. (BTW, even after some 17 million deaths there will be over 60 million Japanese: can that many actually live on subsistence agriculture? The Shogunate peaked at around 29 million...)

(Anyhoo, when I said "pulling it's way out", I was suggesting it's reaching middle-income levels like, say, Mexico. Third world, but upper end).

Bruce

 

[Hanul]

You know, I'd always figure that there'd be a breakaway Manchuria and that Korea would be a little bit more bigger, what with the large Korean diaspora in parts of southeast Manchuria. I thought that the civil war ittl was a bit messier and by then Korea and possibly Manchuria was established.

 

[Goldstein]

Superb map, B_Munro, but I can't read the difference between "UN observer status" and "US protectorate"...

 

[Crust3038]

Somehow I missed that completely.

Must have been hidden in all that American money that Brazil used to get for stuff before they bit the hand that fed them.



Oh, and Japan wasn't Third World, more like 6th.

I hope they bitten them badly.

Superb map, B_Munro, but I can't read the difference between "UN observer status" and "US protectorate"...

Me too, what is the difference?

 

[Plumber]

I think Poland has 1939 borders, India has Ceylon, and Czechoslovakia exsits. Otherwise, stupendous work.

What did happen to the Serbs and Bosniaks though?

 

[CDurham]

I'm not sure that the Baltic States would be at their pre-war boarders as three nations, for several reasons.

The Germans had serious "Germanization" plans for the "Ostland Reichkommissariat" which included seriously encouraging German settlement and, if the Wikipedia article is to be believed, removal of "undesirables" to Belarus.

Seeing as that the German settlers will be removed by force and that the remaining pre-war population, or at least that which was not considered "German" enough, has been at best forced to move into Belarus and probably exterminated to a similar degree as the Poles ITTL, I don't find it likely that there would be sufficent population to reform all three nations. As for the pre-war population that was allowed to stay because they were considered "Aryan" by the Gestapo, well, see Austria. An entire generation that considered themselves as Aryan as someone from Berlin.

In light of this, I see one of three options occuring post-war:

1. (Most likely) The Baltic States, due to the little remaining pre-war ethnic populations, are not reformed as 3 seperate nations but are combined into a United Baltic Republic in the hopes that, being united, they stand a chance to form a viable, if not prosperous, nation.

2. (Possible) The Baltic States are not reformed as three nations, or one, but are absorbed in whole or in part by one of the new East European nations.

One scenaio I thought of was Belarus gets Latvia and Lithuania (access to the sea, and, according to Wiki, most of the remaining Ethnic populations of those states would be moved there. With Estonia possibly going to either Belarus or more likely (IMO) Tsarist Russia.

3. (Least likely) Due to extremly high amounts of German settlement and ethnic cleansing of pre-war population the former Ostland is basically treated like Austria. It is broken into 3 German "successor" simply to prevent a large German state from existing there. This is only a possibility if the the original Ethnic population has been eradicated too much for option one or two.

 

[Evan]

Great map; great comments; just a few quibbles:

I agree that Poland would've kept its prewar borders. Pretty much any lines on the ground there are going to be more-or-less arbitrary, so I think the symbolism would break the tie in favor of status quo ante inferno. Plus, given the substantial A4 aid that's inevitably going to be streaming toward Poland, I think everyone's going to want to join them.

I also think the State of Marianas is going to contain a lot more islands than the OTL commonwealth. For a state, it'd sort of need a larger population and area, right?

And maybe a better comment for the Russian Tsarist Republic: "We held elections last month, so we're a republic too... right?"

 

[Workable Goblin]

In a full out strike India would have no chance.

The limitation on any system that puts an object over 65 miles assures that. (as an example, the Minuteman III, with a max range of 8,000 miles, has to put its payload 700 miles into space to get that sort of range). With the limitation, no one can even test Theater weapons.

So what this tells me is that you will see India doing a lot of hypersonics research over the next while so that they can get intercontinental strike ability with ICBM-like speed but very very carefully sticking under 65 miles (as an example, the American ISINGLASS design back in the '60s, designed as a successor to the A-12/SR-71, was supposed to be able to fly from the Atlantic to Nevada via the Soviet Union, maintain a speed of Mach 20 (!) and would only hit a max altitude of 61 km...). Then they'll have the best of every world (except for cost); a strike system that's as hard to first-strike as bombers, as hard to intercept as ICBMs, has global range, and can be recalled if necessary.

The hypersonics stuff died IOTL since satellites and ICBMs were much cheaper (even if they sometimes didn't give the same capabilities), but the A-4 just knocked the tent pole over and don't even realize they're inside.

EDIT: As another, somewhat more relevant example, take the 1950s-era ROBO project (and wouldn't it be interesting to know how much the US invested in _this_ TL in hypersonic strike aircraft!). Bell designed a system which could strike a target up to 30,000 km away from the launch point (anywhere on Earth) with a bomb of up to 1.3 mT mass in under 90 minutes, fly up to 41,000 km with a top speed of Mach 26 (7.8 km/s) and reach a maximum altitude of only 80 km (~50 miles), comfortably under the A-4's little limit. I really can't wait to see their faces when India starts fielding ROBO-like bombers...

 

[Geon]

A4 and Low Level Warfare

Truth is Life is correct. India can try to develop a delivery system for their nuclear weapons. But, consider that the A4 has weapons they can use other then kinetic warheads and orbital nuclear weapons!

If I have read Calbear's last postings right, and if A4 is smart--and thus far they haven't shown themselves not to be. They have developed a considerable espionage/"low-level" warfare capability. This means they have the ability to go in with small teams to cause big problems.

Consider how much of a problem it would be for India if those researching this hypersonic bomber system were to "disappear" mysteriously. How long would research continue if prototypes were to be destroyed in mysterious explosions and fires? How long would the public put up with a project that was eating up money and producing no results?

A-4, I believe, has lots of ways of getting its message across loud and clear without the need for mass devestation. I think the way it handled Liberia and the fact that during the Soviet incursion into Western Alaska a lot of the leadership of that faction mysteriously died says a great deal about the fact that the A-4 can deal with many problems very decisively and subtly.

Geon