China dissolved by European powers and Japan during late 19th century

[Rex Romanum]

Let's say the European powers and Japan just go along with "WTF let's conquer it because we can!!!" attitude toward China, sometime in 1890s, which was aided by the fact that there is a bigger and more devastating ATL civil war in Qing Dynasty several years before.

The British get provinces around Yangtze river, the Germans get provinces around Shandong peninsula, and the French get Guangzhou and other southern provinces. The control of Manchuria is disputed by Russia (who get Mongolia and Xinjiang) and Japan (who get Korea and Taiwan), but it then agreed by both that Manchuria will become de facto independent, Russian protectorate with some Japanese influence. The other notable independent state is Tibet (British protectorate).

So...China is cease to exist, its provinces become various European and Japanese colonies/protectorates...what next?

 

[Enigmajones]

Well I guess the only thing that can follow that is a steampunk astronaut.

 

[Caesar Australis]

For one I'd expect the Chinese to be substantially less submissive then other conquered territories had historically been, given the stronger sense of identity and pride in the nation. I'm also not sure the Europeans could successfully pull this off- the French and Italians had a hard enough time subduing places like Algeria and Libya, after all.

If they succeed in pulling it off I can see in the long run that it means either Russian or Japanese dominance. The latter would require both a victory analogous to their OTL victory in the Russo-Japanese war and a collapse of Russia due to war stress ala the OTL civil war and Communist take over. Barring that and you have a set up for Russian dominance in Northern/Central China, and possibly a later war with Britain and France to capture the South.

 

[Rex Romanum]

For one I'd expect the Chinese to be substantially less submissive then other conquered territories had historically been, given the stronger sense of identity and pride in the nation. I'm also not sure the Europeans could successfully pull this off- the French and Italians had a hard enough time subduing places like Algeria and Libya, after all.

On the other hand, it will be easier because the Euros and Japanese will just simply playing one warlord/faction against another, somewhat similar with what the Brits did in India...

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I guess if colonialism can invent India, they can likewise abolish China.

 

[Rex Romanum]

Anyway, maybe this scenario requiring an absence of US meddling...

China continued to be divided up into these spheres until the United States, which had no sphere of influence, grew alarmed at the possibility of its businessmen being excluded from Chinese markets. In 1899, Secretary of State John Hay asked the major powers to agree to a policy of equal trading privileges. In 1900, several powers agreed to the U.S.-backed scheme, giving rise to the "Open Door" policy, denoting freedom of commercial access and non-annexation of Chinese territory.

 

[Midas]

I guess if colonialism can invent India, they can likewise abolish China.

"Invest" India? How is India anything close to being "invented"?

This would probably fail horribly in the long run. Eventually European powers will bog themselves down in some stupid, costly war and the Chinese will rebel. They might end up with a bit more or a bit less land than OTL, but with this PoD they'd probably end up reforming at some point. Architecture in some of these cities will remain a bit more European influenced though.

 

[Giysqun Wilde]

There goes the largest buffer zone in history. This will only cause trouble, as there is a reason why those areas were never annexed, besides how it was far simpler for the Europeans and Japanese to send in gunboats and quickly withdraw once things got too hot. Warlordism is going to return to the area even sooner than usual. The British public will question why the Germans were given so much land when they had no real way to get to it. Issues over the border between Russia and India will reflare. The various small powers will demand ports, with the United States trying to wrestle recognition that they get full trading rights in all the former areas of China... One would think there would be at least one neutral area or place held by a small power. The borders in many other places would need to be changed to show the wheeling and dealing that went on to get respective countries their areas. Also, why is Utah a state before Washington, and why do they have Panama nbut not the Spanish islands?

 

[Flocculencio]

"Invest" India? How is India anything close to being "invented"?

I think he means in the sense that the struggle against Britain is what gave Gujuratis, Bengalis, Punjabis, Tamils, Malayalees etc a shared sense of nationalism. India as a whole is more culturally diverse as Europe and it's establishment as a (relatively) united whole is rooted in the shared experience of Imperialism.

 

[Giysqun Wilde]

I think he means in the sense that the struggle against Britain is what gave Gujuratis, Bengalis, Punjabis, Tamils, Malayalees etc a shared sense of nationalism. India as a whole is more culturally diverse as Europe and it's establishment as a (relatively) united whole is rooted in the shared experience of Imperialism.

On that note, it would certainly be interesting having the Gurkha and Sikh running things for the British army. Oh course the part of the map showing Hong Kong as going to France would simply not do.

 

[Onkel Willie]

Given the identity and pride of the Chinese people, I can only see them bog down for years in suppressing dissent and get into wars with each other over pieces of China.

What I could see, is that pieces of China are permanently carved off because they contain minority groups, are easy to control or are in the immediate vicinity of existing concessions/colonies and therefore easy to incorporate.

Thinly populated Xinjiang, Mongolia and Inner Mongolia are annexed by Russia and Manchuria is divided between Russia and Japan, which leads to the Qing losing their Manchu power base. Taiwan goes to Japan. Tibet becomes a British backed puppet state free from Beijing's influence or becomes annexed directly into British India; it sees British/Indian investment over time to improve infrastructure and the economy. Hainan, Guangxi and Guangdong are annexed into French Indochina for their connection with Vietnam and the presence of Tai and Miao-yao minorities that "need to be freed from oppressive Chinese rule" (ethnic Han Chinese may or may not subsequently be "convinced" to resettle in China). Shandong province goes to Germany.

A rump China remains under the Qing who are propped by up foreign powers since that is better than an internal collapse and Chinese civil war (although that is most likely inevitable in the medium term since the Qing are still perceived as Manchus, and rump China is almost completely Han dominated...).

 

[kasumigenx]

I think a Scramble of China is possible in the time before the Mongols conquer Song, nearby South East Asian powers could gobble Song.

 

[Hendryk]

China is cease to exist, its provinces become various European and Japanese colonies/protectorates...what next?

What next? The Boxers on steroids. (The pun wasn't intended but it works nicely).

 

[Snake Featherston]

Er, this is OTL 19th/20th Century history, the Qing Empire fell apart after the Taiping Rebellion, the concessions were practically self-governing, the warlords including the GMD and Communists were in many ways backed and financed by foreigners, and of course there's the two Japanese satellite states of the WWII era.

 

[EternalCynic]

I think a Scramble of China is possible in the time before the Mongols conquer Song, nearby South East Asian powers could gobble Song.

You've been "thinking" a lot of things which require ASBs. Do you really think Annam or Laos could expand their territory and population ten or more times without resistance from an empire which is many times more powerful?

 

[kasumigenx]

You've been "thinking" a lot of things which require ASBs. Do you really think Annam or Laos could expand their territory and population ten or more times without resistance from an empire which is many times more powerful?

I didn't say that it would last but it could, the Neighboring powers like Nanchao could do a scramble of Song but they will partition it to themselves, but likely the Chinese there will rebel and make a new dynasty, Song is weak at that time.

Er, this is OTL 19th/20th Century history, the Qing Empire fell apart after the Taiping Rebellion, the concessions were practically self-governing, the warlords including the GMD and Communists were in many ways backed and financed by foreigners, and of course there's the two Japanese satellite states of the WWII era.

Yes, China can stay like that, the question is how.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I think he means in the sense that the struggle against Britain is what gave Gujuratis, Bengalis, Punjabis, Tamils, Malayalees etc a shared sense of nationalism. India as a whole is more culturally diverse as Europe and it's establishment as a (relatively) united whole is rooted in the shared experience of Imperialism.

Pretty much from what I can tell every time India forms it's because of internal or external conquerors.

 

[scholar]

Trust me when I say this, China may be dissolved by the European Powers in the short run, these colonies will be far too expensive and the states will regain their independence. When they do they will become "China." Will there be a couple China's? Of course. But then again there have been periods where there were a couple of China's for centuries throughout their history. Most will become monarchies along the line of Japan and Germany, some may adopt a more British approach (I seriously doubt any would become democracies unless this colonization will last far longer than a century). The States will go to war with one another and without outside interference will form another China or divide into two roughly even forces. Then they'll turn on the still occupied regions of China.

Simple fact: You cannot destroy over four thousand years of history in... what, a few decades? Over 1/3 of the wealth of the world was centered in China just a few decades before the POD and more people will live in China (over 300 Million) than in Europe, more than twice that number.

 

[Constantinople]

Apparently china is inevitable and will always outsmart and outfight the foreign devils. Non Chinese barbarians could never possibly understand this....

 

[scholar]

Apparently china is inevitable and will always outsmart and outfight the foreign devils. Non Chinese barbarians could never possibly understand this....

China is not inevitable, take a POD long before 1000 BC but far too much time has passed. You might as well make a POD in the 1950s that can eradicate Islam by 1970, or christianity with the same POD only you have till 1980. Too much time has passed, the notion and idea too ingrained in the populous and the populous is just too big to cleanse (violently or otherwise).