Maybe....but maybe its just different.
Maybe - there will be change....
I don't exactly think it will be an exact copy (could Japan end up actually being dismembered by various colonial powers instead of just dominated by them?) but China is clearly on the right track ITTL to become a major power while Japan is starting to crumble
Glen
Sorry, so busy noticing that state I didn't notice the [non] status of Brazil.
Had been thinking that a powerful rival like that might prompt Brazil to develop faster to secure its position but that is rather a moot point now.Steve
Glen
Moderator
Glen
Sorry, so busy noticing that state I didn't notice the [non] status of Brazil.
Steve
Well, there still is a Republic of Brazil - if a bit truncated.
Glen
Moderator
By 1860, the Manchu were in full flight to the Manchu homeland. Many of the Manchu and Qing officials were taken by surpise at the pent-up ferocity that was unleashed upon them in northern China, including Chinese Turkestan and Mongolia. At the root of it was the dual reasons of the humiliations that Manchus had placed over the centuries on non-Manchus, and the corruption that had become rampant in the Qing civil service. Some Western observers may have been tempted to believe that with so many of the career civil servants driven out of their posts, that the new regime would collapse into chaos - however, they would be forgetting the great number of talented Han, Hui, Mongolian, and others who had been candidates for civil service but denied due to being unable to find patronage or a big enough bribe. Therefore when the new dynasty (called Chuen, meaning Pure in Chinese) announced that the Middle Kingdom would return to a more fundamental Confucianism free from bribery and corruption (and with the number of executed or fled bureacrats, few disputed their ardor in reform), there were more than enough bright and well educationed non-Manchus free of the taint of the old regime to take their place.
Again, a naive observer from the West may have expected the northern rebellion and southern revolution to embrace and form a new China. However, the north was now dominated by fiercely traditional Confucians, whereas the south had already started a government which had more in common with the liberal nations of the Western World than their Confucian roots. The anti-Manchu reaction in the south had been milder, more gradual, but had been going on longer, and while there was no official discrimination against Manchus, the former administrators of China were by and large ignorant and disdainful of the new teachings of the West, and chose to return to the north, and thence Manchuria.
Both the north and the south claimed each others' territory initially, but the south was weary of war, and the north far from secure with Qing Manchuria at it's doorstep. The United States, France, and Britain were able to act as mediators to arrange an armistice between the two powers, with only a tepid agreement to begin talks in future on possible reunification of the two disparate parts of China.
Manchuria itself stayed loyal to the scions of the Qing dynasty, and refused to recognize the legitimacy of the Chuen dynasty. But essentially, Qing ruled over nothing more than Manchuria, and that at the sufferance of the Russians.
Again, a naive observer from the West may have expected the northern rebellion and southern revolution to embrace and form a new China. However, the north was now dominated by fiercely traditional Confucians, whereas the south had already started a government which had more in common with the liberal nations of the Western World than their Confucian roots. The anti-Manchu reaction in the south had been milder, more gradual, but had been going on longer, and while there was no official discrimination against Manchus, the former administrators of China were by and large ignorant and disdainful of the new teachings of the West, and chose to return to the north, and thence Manchuria.
Both the north and the south claimed each others' territory initially, but the south was weary of war, and the north far from secure with Qing Manchuria at it's doorstep. The United States, France, and Britain were able to act as mediators to arrange an armistice between the two powers, with only a tepid agreement to begin talks in future on possible reunification of the two disparate parts of China.
Manchuria itself stayed loyal to the scions of the Qing dynasty, and refused to recognize the legitimacy of the Chuen dynasty. But essentially, Qing ruled over nothing more than Manchuria, and that at the sufferance of the Russians.
OMG. The United States of China. You just blew my mind.
How is the north (Chuen) going to deal with the fact that they have very little coastline compared to their new southern neighbor?
So both Brazil and China are balkanized?
It is possible that this could actually remain stable because North and South China on their own are still powerful nation states with strong industrial potential (although in the long run North China will probably fall behind). I can't really comment on Brazil however...
It is possible that this could actually remain stable because North and South China on their own are still powerful nation states with strong industrial potential (although in the long run North China will probably fall behind). I can't really comment on Brazil however...
Not only that but despite the greater size of Chuen the USC has the bulk of the population and the richest land. Especially interesting that the USC has a chunk of the Yellow River, which could potentially cause problems if the two don't get on. They could seek to block river traffic or either side could neglect the river defences which could be potentially disastrous for the region.
There might be peace for a while but I think the two are so different plus the long history of Chinese opinion rejecting division and insisting on a unified state makes me think some clash is inevitable. Would expect the USC to win given their superior resources but could well be long and bloody.
Steve
This was an awesome finish to the Chinese Civil War (or whatever this war will be named) Glen! A balkanized China is rarely done right. And most people don't realize it is one of the cases where balkanization will probably favor the Chinese in the long run.
The USC clearly has the upper hand here. Not only does it have the bulk of the population and the richest land but also a government that should allow it to reform and progress rapidly. Chuen China has more conservative goverment, and might have problems with some of its minorities in the future sine Mongolia, Turkestan and Tibet are inside its borders (Tukestan might be the larger problem since the government is moving towards a conservative Confusian philosophy).
A clash between the USC and the Chuen will likely result in Cheun balkanization and the Han parts joining the USC.
Anyway this is al already quite interesting and I am very much looking forward to see where this TL goes. Keep up the good work Glen.
Not only that but despite the greater size of Chuen the USC has the bulk of the population and the richest land. Especially interesting that the USC has a chunk of the Yellow River, which could potentially cause problems if the two don't get on. They could seek to block river traffic or either side could neglect the river defences which could be potentially disastrous for the region.
There might be peace for a while but I think the two are so different plus the long history of Chinese opinion rejecting division and insisting on a unified state makes me think some clash is inevitable. Would expect the USC to win given their superior resources but could well be long and bloody.
Steve
The USC clearly has the upper hand here. Not only does it have the bulk of the population and the richest land but also a government that should allow it to reform and progress rapidly. Chuen China has more conservative goverment, and might have problems with some of its minorities in the future sine Mongolia, Turkestan and Tibet are inside its borders (Tukestan might be the larger problem since the government is moving towards a conservative Confusian philosophy).
A clash between the USC and the Chuen will likely result in Cheun balkanization and the Han parts joining the USC.
Anyway this is al already quite interesting and I am very much looking forward to see where this TL goes. Keep up the good work Glen.
Just because the Chuen is conservative does not mean it will not be able to reform, it will just adopt western practises with a Chinese face. I do however agree that in the long run the Chuen are vulnerable and if and when they are annexed by the UCS, then Manchuria will be vulnerable as well. What does Manchuria call itself BTW; the Empire of Manchuria or Kingdom of Manchuria or does it still refuse to recognise it has lost so much territory (eg, the Qing still call themselves the Emperors of China)?
What I meant to say is that the conservatism will likely lead to them being isolationist and would likely get a response from their non Confusian minorities not necessarily that it can not reform (though it will likely be a violent change).
Something tells me that Manhchuria is likely to be divided at some point between Russia, Chuen China (or a unified China) and Japan (if it gets off the funk its in right now) or Korea, which without Japan and China preassuring it can grow into a local power.
I love the end of the Chinese Civil War!
I gotta admit, I would have prefered to see the USC call themselves the United States of Asia. Leaves open all sorts of options and jokes in the future ;-). Regardless, looks to me like the USA and USC will have a very different sort of special relationship in this world! A world where Cantonese is still spoken in China!
And the Chuen Dynasty looks like it will have a rocky foundation, with a very diverse ethnic base, with the Tibetens, Mongolians and Turkistanis making up a good chunk of the people, and thier homelands make up the the majority of the landmass!
And Russia has a fine puppet in Manchuria, though I wonder when they will decide to make it thier own. Siberia will eventually need a Vladvistok after all!
In the end, you continue to suprise us with this world Glen. Bravo!
I gotta admit, I would have prefered to see the USC call themselves the United States of Asia. Leaves open all sorts of options and jokes in the future ;-). Regardless, looks to me like the USA and USC will have a very different sort of special relationship in this world! A world where Cantonese is still spoken in China!
And the Chuen Dynasty looks like it will have a rocky foundation, with a very diverse ethnic base, with the Tibetens, Mongolians and Turkistanis making up a good chunk of the people, and thier homelands make up the the majority of the landmass!
And Russia has a fine puppet in Manchuria, though I wonder when they will decide to make it thier own. Siberia will eventually need a Vladvistok after all!
In the end, you continue to suprise us with this world Glen. Bravo!
Not necessarily. Those strengths may be its undoing. The USC is now weaker that China OTL (in that it is smaller and, under a new regime, is inevitably more unstable) and it possesses what the European countries want: control of the Yangtse, plus other coastal cities. If the UK, or another country, decides to attempt to establish a sphere of influence over the Chinese trade lanes, the war may swing the balance of power amongst the three remnant Chinese states decidedly against them...
Glen
Moderator
We are gratified, Citizen.
Probably pretty well as they actually don't want a lot of trouble with foreigners (though they can't avoid them entirely).
Glen
Moderator
True, that (and another reason the USC did not feel the need to continue fighting to gain all of China).
Indeed - this may or may not be a source of either future negotiation or conflict - time will tell....
There might be peace for a while but I think the two are so different plus the long history of Chinese opinion rejecting division and insisting on a unified state makes me think some clash is inevitable. Would expect the USC to win given their superior resources but could well be long and bloody.
Steve
This too is a distinct possibility, though not an inevitability. I think the winner of such a conflict might also depend on preparation and potential allies in any such conflict.
Glen
Moderator
Thank you very much! Actually, I believe the Southerners will refer to it as the Chinese Revolution - need to check what the Northerners will likely call it - the Manchus will probably just refer to it as the Great Calamity!
Thank you again, and yes, it is a distinct possibility that there will be strength in division in these Chinas.
All true, though they are still a young nation in many respects (even if an ancient people) and there is still quite a bit of room for disaster.
This is possible, though for the short term they are actually being fairly even handed with 'minorities' both by race and religion. While they are putting together a reformed Confucian based bureacracy, they are not necessarily requiring one's personal beliefs to be Confucian, at least at this point in history.
Certainly one real possibility. Ah, but so many possibilities abound...
Thank you! That kind of encouragement is important to keep a timeline's author going!!