(OTL) Charles V & Ferdinand I without a Habsburg Spain

[Janprimus]

Charles V & Ferdinand I without a Habsburg Spain

It's quite popular here to have either Juan (John), the prince of Asturias or Miguel da Paz, so that the Habsburgs don't end up as kings of the Spanish kingdoms (crown of Castille and crown of Aragon).

This also causes that the focus of the Habsburgs stays on the empire and this will also affect marriage politics.
IOTL a French or English princess were preferred for Charles V and Anne of Hungary & Bohemia wasn't really considered, now without the Spanish inheritance IMHO this would change.

In a lot TL's they still have the Habsburgs split their domains between a Burgundian (Charles v) and an Austrian (Ferdinand I) branch, however without the Spanish inheritance this wouldn't be as necessary. IOTL one of the reason's why Charles V gave Ferdinand I all the Austrian hereditary lands was the marriage of Ferdinand with Anne of Hungary & Bohemia and to improve their chance to be elected as heir of Anne's brother Louis, if he were to die without a heir; another reason was to give Ferdinand a powerbase, so that he could act as the representative of Charles, when Charles wasn't in the Empire.
If for instance Charles would marry Anne and/or doesn't inherit the Spanish kingdoms, that won't happen (although the marriage of Ferdinand with Anne seems to be popular too).
OTOH Ferdinand could have gotten Inner Austria (Styria, Carinthia, Carniola (& Windic March) or Further Austria (Tyrol & and the traditional western lands of the Habsburgs) or Ferdinand could end up as the Habsburg candidate for the duchy of Milan.

Louis of Hungary & Bohemia could survive, but if he doesn't then things would depend on the marriage of his sister Anne. If's she marries Ferdinand as IOTL then her husband will probably have a smaller powerbase and more difficulties securing their election and also more difficulties against the Ottomans.
If OTOH Anne ends up being married to Charles in such a scenario, they will have a stronger position against the Ottomans, and a 'crusade' to liberate Hungary from the Ottomans does fit Charles's personality.
OTOH the Habsburgs would be weaker than IOTL, so a harder time in Italy and against France, but at the same time they also are much less of a threat for France. Since without one person holding the alliance together the Habsburgs and the Trastamaras/Aviz won't be allies forever.

What are your thoughts?

And could an alternative Charles V (Holy Roman Emperor, king of Hungary etc., king of Bohemia etc., archduke of Austria etc., duke of Burgundy & lord of the Netherlands etc.) have succeeded in restoring the kingdom of Hungary (or at least reduce Ottoman Hungary)?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Are you on the same wavelengths as mine? I'm actually thinking of giving Ferdinand a power base by giving him Inner and Further Austria as Charles revives the royal Burgundian title in my TL. Of course, later on some events could reunite the Burgundian and Austrian Habsburgs...

And no Habsburg Spain does mean fewer Italian wars...

 

[Janprimus]

Are you on the same wavelengths as mine? I'm actually thinking of giving Ferdinand a power base by giving him Inner and Further Austria as Charles revives the royal Burgundian title in my TL. Of course, later on some events could reunite the Burgundian and Austrian Habsburgs...

And no Habsburg Spain does mean fewer Italian wars...

My idea (very short summary) was to have Charles V marry Anne of Hungary and Bohemia, so that without too many butterflies he becomes Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor etc., king of Hungary etc., king of Bohemia etc., archduke of Austria etc., duke of Burgundy & lord of the Netherlands etc. and have him fight a war with the Ottomans (with the goal) to liberate the entire Hungarian kingdom.
Regarding the Italian Wars, I'd actually like to have archduke Ferdinand as the Habsburg duke of Milan (which would be the power base of his branch), which will either result in French marriage for Ferdinand or when there's an Aviz Spain/Iberia an Aviz princess/infanta could also be a good candidate.

So you may tell me, whether our wavelengths are close enough.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

My idea (very short summary) was to have Charles V marry Anne of Hungary and Bohemia, so that without too many butterflies he becomes Charles V, Holy Roman Emperor, king of Hungary etc., king of Bohemia etc., archduke of Austria etc., duke of Burgundy & lord of the Netherlands etc. and have him fight a war with the Ottomans to liberate the entire Hungarian kingdom.
Regarding the Italian Wars, I'd actually like to have archduke Ferdinand as the Habsburg duke of Milan (which would be the power base of his branch).

So you may tell me, whether our wavelengths are close enough.

Not really since Lajos II still lives (though Mohacs is still an Ottoman victory).

But Ferdinand could be Archduke of Inner and Further Austria, Duke of Milan... though his brother Charles is still Archduke of Austria in addition to being King of Burgundy (something the Imperial title implies, but with "Burgundy" moving northward...)

 

[Janprimus]

Or alternatively have the Sforza dukes of Milan survive and keep both France and the Habsburgs out of Italy.

Then archduke Ferdinand could end up with either Inner Austria or Further Austria and he could serve as governor for his brother of one of the parts of the Habsburg lands (most likely Austria or Burgundy (& the Netherlands)).

 

[Janprimus]

Here's an example of Europe would look like with my idea, if for instance Miguel da Paz survives, and Charles manages to restore Hungary (positive scenario).

 

[Gonzaga]

Just some ideas:

If John of Asturias or Miguel da Paz don't die then you migh very well butterfly away Ferdinand. He was born in Spain in 1503 after his parents travelled to there in 1502 in order to Joanna be recognized as the heiress of Castile. But assuming that an ITTL version of Ferdinand (a second younger son) is born from Philip and Joanna then a possible bride would be any possible daughter of John of Asturias or a ITTL version of Mary Tudor (just as the OTL Mary was promised to Charles V).

Anyway, the possibility of making him become Duke of Milan depends on the Sforzas dieing out. IOTL they were supported by the Habsburgs, and there wouldn't be many reasons to change it.

Also, you need to consider that ITTL Philip the Handsome would probably not die from fever in 1506 as he did, as he wouldn't be in Spain. So there is a high chance of having him be the next Holy Roman Emperor after Maximilian I. Considering all the problems of relationship he had with his wife maybe it could make much easier for Philip to arrange for Charles a marriage with Anne of Hungary rather than a Trastamara princess.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Just some ideas:

If John of Asturias or Miguel da Paz don't die then you migh very well butterfly away Ferdinand. He was born in Spain in 1503 after his parents travelled to there in 1502 in order to Joanna be recognized as the heiress of Castile. But assuming that an ITTL version of Ferdinand (a second younger son) is born from Philip and Joanna then a possible bride would be any possible daughter of John of Asturias or a ITTL version of Mary Tudor (just as the OTL Mary was promised to Charles V).

Anyway, the possibility of making him become Duke of Milan depends on the Sforzas dieing out. IOTL they were supported by the Habsburgs, and there wouldn't be many reasons to change it.

Also, you need to consider that ITTL Philip the Handsome would probably not die from fever in 1506 as he did, as he wouldn't be in Spain. So there is a high chance of having him be the next Holy Roman Emperor after Maximilian I. Considering all the problems of relationship he had with his wife maybe it could make much easier for Philip to arrange for Charles a marriage with Anne of Hungary rather than a Trastamara princess.

All things I will take into consideration.

Without Habsburg Spain the Habsburgs may very well look to the east more and cultivate relations with Hungary.

 

[Janprimus]

Just some ideas:

If John of Asturias or Miguel da Paz don't die then you migh very well butterfly away Ferdinand. He was born in Spain in 1503 after his parents travelled to there in 1502 in order to Joanna be recognized as the heiress of Castile. But assuming that an ITTL version of Ferdinand (a second younger son) is born from Philip and Joanna then a possible bride would be any possible daughter of John of Asturias or a ITTL version of Mary Tudor (just as the OTL Mary was promised to Charles V).

Anyway, the possibility of making him become Duke of Milan depends on the Sforzas dieing out. IOTL they were supported by the Habsburgs, and there wouldn't be many reasons to change it.

Also, you need to consider that ITTL Philip the Handsome would probably not die from fever in 1506 as he did, as he wouldn't be in Spain. So there is a high chance of having him be the next Holy Roman Emperor after Maximilian I. Considering all the problems of relationship he had with his wife maybe it could make much easier for Philip to arrange for Charles a marriage with Anne of Hungary rather than a Trastamara princess.

IOTL John/Juan died in 1497 and Michael/Miguel in 1500, so Ferdinand could be butterflied away, but even with the problems in the relationship of Philip and Joanna (Philip loved his mistresses and Joanna was very jealous) they would probably still do their duties for their dynasty.
Some of OTL problems Philip had with the house of Trastamara wouldn't happen now, but would in case of Miguel da Paz happen between the Trastamaras and the Aviz. Ferdinand of Aragon and Philip would also have less problems with one of them in Spain and the other in the HRE.

If Philip is emperor, he might end up giving the Austrian lands to Charles now (like Ferdinand received these IOTL), if this improves his position to be accepted as the successor in Hungary and Bohemia; furthermore under such a scenario they would now return to the main line anyway.

Finally Milan, the Sforzas and the Habsburgs often were allies IOTL and now without the direct Spanish support this could become more important and could earn them more support in the empire (the emperor defends a part of the empire against an invader).
I agree that Ferdinand could only be a candidate if the Sforzas die out or he or his line (son, grandson) marries a Sforza heiress.

 

[Faeelin]

Finally Milan, the Sforzas and the Habsburgs often were allies IOTL and now without the direct Spanish support this could become more important and could earn them more support in the empire (the emperor defends a part of the empire against an invader).
I agree that Ferdinand could only be a candidate if the Sforzas die out or he or his line (son, grandson) marries a Sforza heiress.

I'm a bit perplexed. Why wouldn't the French use their stronger position to take Northern Italy? Similarly, without Spanish gold and other resources, you posit that the Habsburgs are more successful than OTL. This seems a bit odd, no?

 

[Janprimus]

If successful is about the Habsburg position in Italy and especially Milan, then the Habsburgs and the Trastamaras might want to keep the status quo, so they would support the Sforzas. Whether or not successful, this will be a popular action from the emperor (probably more than annexation).

Acquiring Milan by the Habsburgs will be much harder, probably only through marriage. However IMHO keeping the status quo in Italy could be possible; the Ottomans will be Habsburgs biggest concern even more than IOTL. So IMO that's not more successful than IOTL.

Yes, they would lack the Spanish resources, but OTOH IOTL the Habsburg structurally earned more from the Burgundian Lands than from the Crown of Castille.

I originally posted this in thread by Endymion about Don Juan of Aragon.

(....)

I actually have found some figures about tax income during the reign of Charles V. (In 1000 Castilian ducates)
The Habsburg (Burgundian) Netherlands gave 20,974 subsidies, which was 7.2 per capita (A total population of 2.9 million). In contrast Castille gave 9,300, which was 1.6 per capita (A total population of 5.9 million); and Napels gave 5,700, which was 2.7 per capita (A total population of 2.1 million).

(Figures are from a book about Charles V by (professor) W. Blockmans (Title in Dutch: Karel V, keizer van een wereldrijk 1500-1558 (Charles V, emperor of a (global) empire 1500-1558 )

(...)

However militarily they would lack the Spanish troops, but 'Spain' and the Habsburgs would probably still be allies in Italy against France.

 

[Janprimus]

Although as compromise at a peace treaty a younger son of the king of France could end up being made the new (independent) duke of Milan on the condition that he either marries a Trastamara or a Habsburg princess.

 

[Gonzaga]

Just an idea: IOTL there was a short period when Wurttemberg was annexed to the Habsburg territories. Could Charles make Ferdinand the new Duke of Wurttemberg in order to give him a new territory and title?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Just an idea: IOTL there was a short period when Wurttemberg was annexed to the Habsburg territories. Could Charles make Ferdinand the new Duke of Wurttemberg in order to give him a new territory and title?

House of Habsburg-Württemberg - now that's an interesting TL.

 

[Faeelin]

Although as compromise at a peace treaty a younger son of the king of France could end up being made the new (independent) duke of Milan on the condition that he either marries a Trastamara or a Habsburg princess.

You know, I wonder what an exclusively Spanish foreign policy would be like. I thas no desire to defend Hungary in later years, or to subdue the Low Countries. What does Spain spend the money on instead?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

You know, I wonder what an exclusively Spanish foreign policy would be like. I thas no desire to defend Hungary in later years, or to subdue the Low Countries. What does Spain spend the money on instead?

It would likely act like a bigger Portugal, and making sure it retains its Italian lands.

Especially if we end up with a united Iberia courtesy of Miguel da Paz.

 

[Janprimus]

Just an idea: IOTL there was a short period when Wurttemberg was annexed to the Habsburg territories. Could Charles make Ferdinand the new Duke of Wurttemberg in order to give him a new territory and title?

House of Habsburg-Württemberg - now that's an interesting TL.

I agree, Ferdinand could end up with Württemberg and Further Austria (without Tyrol, but probably with Vorarlberg) and the Habsburgs could even revive the title duke of Swabia (more prestigious than Württemberg (would be the most important subsidiary title (together with other titles as duke of Teck))) for their fellow Habsburg Ferdinand.

IOTL the rebelling subjects and their allies sold it to Charles V for 200.000 Gulden in 1519. Problems started with the Habsburg Lieutenants, but Ferdinand being there as their personal duke might prevent this.

 

[Janprimus]

You know, I wonder what an exclusively Spanish foreign policy would be like. I thas no desire to defend Hungary in later years, or to subdue the Low Countries. What does Spain spend the money on instead?

Italy, their border with France, if Juan of Asturias/Aragon survives, Portugal, and they would help their ally against their current biggest rival.

 

[Gonzaga]

You know, I wonder what an exclusively Spanish foreign policy would be like. I thas no desire to defend Hungary in later years, or to subdue the Low Countries. What does Spain spend the money on instead?

Maybe North Africa? The ports of Algeria and Tunisia could probably be targets of an Spanish expansion.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Maybe North Africa? The ports of Algeria and Tunisia could probably be targets of an Spanish expansion.

Especially if it's done to secure the Mediterranean empire the Crown of Aragon built.