The Fourth Lectern - A 2010 Election TL

I'm guessing a minority Labour government gets in after Cameron offers some system that doesn't screw the Tories now that he knows FPTP is going to die?
 

AndyC

Donor
Specific result for South Ribble would be nice, please! I'll make a map for you this afternoon.

Sure:

SOUTH RIBBLE
Lorraine Fullbrook (C) 18,147 (35.27%)
+David Borrow (Lab) 17,842 (34.67%)
David Duxbury (UKIP) 9,253 (17.98%)
Peter Fisher (LD) 5419 (10.53%)
Rosalind Gauci (BNP) 797 (1.55%)

This is one where the UKIP surge came mainly at the expense of the Tories, with some coming from the Lib Dems and BNP.

And thanks in advance for the map :)
 
You know, I think UKIP has a chance to stay relevant. They've shown now that they have a following and a foundation-albeit a small one-on which to build a national party. Besides, I'm thinking that Gordon Brown's coalition, whatever its composition, won't endure five years.
 
You know, I think UKIP has a chance to stay relevant. They've shown now that they have a following and a foundation-albeit a small one-on which to build a national party. Besides, I'm thinking that Gordon Brown's coalition, whatever its composition, won't endure five years.

Try surviving five months and even then I'm sceptic.
 
Thanks for my constituency result. Here's the map of the day after what I suspect will merely be 2010's first general election...

11AM.png
 

AndyC

Donor
BBC News, 10 May 2010

… Coalition talks between the Labour Party and Liberal Democrats have reportedly broken down, both sides blaming unfeasible demands by the other side. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have held exploratory talks, but it is difficult to see how they could produce even a minority Government …

Number 10, Downing Street. The White Drawing Room

Peter Mandelson closed his eyes and rubbed the top of his nose with his thumb and forefinger. He’d had very little sleep since Election Day had begun, and it didn’t look like he’d have a full night’s sleep for some time yet.

“Okay”, he said wearily. “What exactly did Gordon say before he went off with Ed for his ‘little chat’?”

A young Labour Party staffer cleared his throat. Jerry, recallecd Mandelson. That’s the lad’s name.

“Just that he’d be damned if Cable and Huhne would force him to make unnecessary cuts or rip away our defences against the terrorists”, said Jerry.

“Our Gordon has many praiseworthy characteristics, but a willingness to compromise is not amongst them, sadly”, mused Mandelson. “Did you suggest that he view their requests as a first negotiating step and try to come up with a compromise between them?”

“Umm, yes”. Jerry looked uncomfortable. “He didn’t seem to like that idea”

“Indeed?”, asked Mandelson with a raised eyebrow.

“Yeah – he said ‘Who do they think they are? I’m the one who was Chancellor for ten years, and the best Chancellor we’ve ever had. I’m the one who rebuilt the world’s financial systems when they went to the brink. I’m not a fucking Tory who’ll cut, cut, cut. There’s another way and we can’t go half way between them - we can't cut and not cut at the same time. What’s the point of cutting more than we need to? We’d just legitimise the toffs’ suggestions!’, and he walked off with Mr Balls”, said Jerry.

“Oh dear. I think that the project to reunify the progressive centre-left may have run into some rather fundamental showstoppers”, murmured Mandelson. “Thank you, Jerry. That’ll be all”

Jerry nodded and left, with an expression of relief.

David Milliband leaned forward. “So – what do we do?”, he asked. Around the table, his younger brother, Alistair Darling and Harriet Harman all looked expectantly at Mandelson.

“It’s – difficult”, said Mandelson. “Since he started refusing to talk to me directly, advising him appropriately has become – something of a challenge”

“It’s wider than just the Party issue”, interjected Darling. “Vince has a pretty good case. With Greece going the way it is, Europe could become a house of cards. And the money markets are getting very apprehensive. We could see them downgrading us and we’d be paying considerably more in interest charges – which could cause bigger cuts down the line”

“I bow to your financial expertise”, said Mandelson, “But I’m not the one you have to convince. It’s Gordon”

Darling shook his head. “Gordon’s problem is that he occasionally confuses what he wants to happen with what is going to happen. If he has every intention of bringing the finances under control at some later date, why should the markets doubt him? And he hates the ‘cuts’ word with a passion”

Ed Milliband spoke up. “Since he found out that Huhne had sent Laws and Alexander to talk to the Tories without telling us first, he’s become convinced that they’ve betrayed him. He thinks at some level that they’re just trying to get justification for the Tory financial agenda.”

David shook his head. “Can’t he see that they’re only posturing for effect? The Tories and the Libs wouldn’t get up to our numbers even if they did go together. There’s no way they can get in without our say-so”

“Unfortunately, Gordon is particularly sensitive to what he sees as disloyalty”, sighed Mandelson. “And he often sees the most pessimistic outcome in political terms, even if he doesn’t take that stance when looking at the finances. Whilst he remains leader …”

An uncomfortable look flashed around the table.

“… we are required to support him as much as we can, regardless of his own issues. David – I’d like you and Harriet to speak to the Liberals about the possibility of a supply-and-confidence deal”

David looked sceptical. “I’m not sure they’ll even sign up to that”

Mandelson shrugged. “It costs nothing to ask, makes us look more reasonable, and there are plenty of positions that can be negotiated. Suggest a short-term deal of no more than two years, hint that we might be able to get some concessions in terms of finances – say, an Emergency Budget where we’d welcome their submissions. But for God’s sake don’t say that we’d accept any of them!”

“Fine, I’ll try.” said David.

Mandelson continued. “You can throw in some suggestions on civil liberties, but not too many. Kick the Identity Cards Bill into the long grass. Suggest that a cross-party committee be set up to study the need for them and report back in two years, after the suggested supply-and-confidence deal expires. We should be able to sell that to Gordon on grounds of cost savings – God knows that it keeps on climbing. And remember, everyone. Much though we may admire him, Gordon cannot continue as Leader forever. He knows at some level that the loss in support that he suffered has damaged his position. What we must do is ensure that his successor is not someone likely to share the same tendencies”

“You mean – not Balls”, said Darling, harshly.

Mandelson looked pained. “To put it crudely, yes”

Ed Milliband looked uncomfortable, but joined in with the general assent around the table.

“Well, if that’s everything for now, let’s see what the responses are. Ed – if you can try to find out what Gordon and Balls are cooking up between them, I’d be most grateful. That’s all for now”, said Mandelson.
 

Thande

Donor
Sounds plausible enough. A very awkward situation for the country.

I wonder if there will be pressure for the new Tory leader (if Cameron is ousted) to commit to a more Eurosceptic position in an attempt to kill or reabsorb UKIP or their voters. People will be walking around with misleading statistics saying "if all the UKIP voters had voted for us we'd have a majority government", with the popular misconception that all UKIP voters are disaffected Tories.
 
It's unlikely Cameron would be ousted. It's a well known secret that he would have two general elections to fight before being removed. They haven't done too badly ITTL, so he'll probably stay on and try to reintegrate the UKIP voters himself. Depending on the eventual outcome this could mean taking a more eurosceptic line, or a more general shift to the right and away from the center-right consensus.
 

Thande

Donor
It's unlikely Cameron would be ousted. It's a well known secret that he would have two general elections to fight before being removed.

That was said quite a bit in 2007 or so, but that was when it looked like the Tories might not win the next election due to the Brown bounce. But Cameron has been in a position where he had a commanding lead over Brown in 2009 and then let it wither away. I think there will at least be a leadership challenge from the right, though it may not be succesful.
 
It's unlikely Cameron would be ousted. It's a well known secret that he would have two general elections to fight before being removed. They haven't done too badly ITTL, so he'll probably stay on and try to reintegrate the UKIP voters himself. Depending on the eventual outcome this could mean taking a more eurosceptic line, or a more general shift to the right and away from the center-right consensus.

Yes, but the two general elections thing always relied on them being in a good enough position after the first election that a victory on the second would look credible. As it is, they've gained just over 50 seats - a repeat of that at the next election would still leave them as only the largest party in a hung parliament. And in the meantime there are now dozens if not hundreds of seats where UKIP are only a few hundred to a few thousand votes away from winning the seat, expect lots of purple "Winning Here!" posters next time around...

Cameron needs to adopt a hard line on Europe to pull back the UKIP voters. Fortunately "votes for prisoners" and the Euro bailouts are coming down the pipeline to enable him to reestablish his credentials...
 
Ah, the Prince of Darkness has stirred. At the moment, this isn't looking good for any of the leaders of the big three parties. I can see the Labour Government being paralysed by infighting like the Major years on steroids while Huhne's lost ground for the Lib Dems and there'll be a lot of people claiming that they need a more telegenic leader to prosper in this new era. Cameron, meanwhile, is going to face massive pressure to swing the Tories dramatically back to the right. If he does it, he'll then run the risk of losing the moderate wing of the party, and if he doesn't then the headbanger brigade will be out for blood.

Congdon's probably happy, though - with no Farage in Parliament, he's free to really assert his control over UKIP and keep them as an interesting threat for the next election.
 
BBC News, 10 May 2010

“It’s wider than just the Party issue”, interjected Darling. “Vince has a pretty good case. With Greece going the way it is, Europe could become a house of cards. And the money markets are getting very apprehensive. We could see them downgrading us and we’d be paying considerably more in interest charges – which could cause bigger cuts down the line”

Nitpick, but on the 10th wasn't Darling either at or on his way back from the European finance minister's meeting where he agreed an open-ended obligation on George Osborne to find billions to bail out the PIIGS? He wouldn't be available for Mandy's little cabal, surely?
 
Thanks for my constituency result. Here's the map of the day after what I suspect will merely be 2010's first general election...
One quibble about that - unless I missed something in the updates, you've got Colchester the wrong colour (red rather than gold). And Labour winning it in this scenario would be pretty ASBish.
 

AndyC

Donor
Nitpick, but on the 10th wasn't Darling either at or on his way back from the European finance minister's meeting where he agreed an open-ended obligation on George Osborne to find billions to bail out the PIIGS? He wouldn't be available for Mandy's little cabal, surely?

I think that the meeting was on May 8th and 9th, wasn't it? Even if it did spill over to Monday 10th, Darling could get back pretty swiftly and I've assumed that under these circumstances, Darling would want to be back for the cabal meeting so would hurry back.
 
I think that the meeting was on May 8th and 9th, wasn't it? Even if it did spill over to Monday 10th, Darling could get back pretty swiftly and I've assumed that under these circumstances, Darling would want to be back for the cabal meeting so would hurry back.

This may actually change IMO with UKIP having over 4 million votes, it could show Brown that even when not bailing out Greece public hatred for the E.U is higher then what can be ignored so may bail out of the agreement if the election happens when Ireland or Portugal needs the next one or if Cameron gets in then he may get Osbourne to cancel it.
 
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