Were you still up for Balls?

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The United Kingdom 2010 General Election will go down in history as one of the most volatile elections of modern times, at different points during the last five weeks, all three major parties topped the opinion polls; a minor party looked like it was going to make a significant breakthrough; the election count was one of the longest ever and was only finally concluded with six legal actions, three re-run elections and the United Kingdom remained without a new government for nearly a fortnight.

Various commentators have pointed to significant points during the campaign and before it as being the turning point of the election and academic studies have abounded on this matter.

The successful UKIP court case about the debates is often mentioned as having been pivotal in it's effect on the Conservative "nailed-on" majority. The BNP attentat and removal to no more than token position of Nick Griffin in January 2010 is mentioned by others as having had a powerful effect on White Working Class voters by replacing the shady racist image with a more respectable one of Civic Nationalism. The attempts at electoral alliances between fringe parties of the right (partially successful) and between various "socialist" candidates and the Green party (an acrimonious failure), meant that more candidates stood that at any time for years.

The debates with powerful performances in the first debate from Nick Clegg, in the second debate from Nigel Farage, the destruction of Vince Cable by Alistair Darling in the Chancellors Debate and Gordon Brown's crash and burn over Bigotgate in the third debate - certainly raised political interest and may well have led to the turnout being the highest since 1992.

The media had its influence as well, both in traditional and New Media forms, the Telegraph ran a series of rehashes of its expenses fraud campaign, culminating in the leak of additional MP's who were being investigated by the police and the outing of David Laws. The Grauniad attemped to back the Liberal Democrats but suffered from most of it's major columnist trying to issue cris du coeur for Labour. The Times solidily backed the Conservatives with just a hint of a wobble after the second debate. The Mail and Express concentrated their fire on hating everyone, before issuing a final call for a Conservative vote. The Redtops stuck to their guns, the Mirror for Labour, the Sun for the Tories and the Star for whoever hated Muslims the most this month. No one noticed what the Independent did.

Experiments by candidates in New Media varied from highly successful web sites, to very bland Facebook profiles (although some candidates claimed to have answered as many question from constituents by Facebook as by email) to some spectacular "pop-outs" usually on Twitter. Amazingly enough, the three major nominations for "Living Proof of Tuckers Law", Dorries, Hancock and Brown were all re-elected.

The final polls were in hindsight a disaster for the polling companies - with only the previous derided Opinium getting any measure of credibility out of them. The academic arguments over the whys and the wherefores of the errors went on well into 2011, but mainly concentrated on the overly low estimates for "the others" - the average had shown Labour and the Liberal Democrats on 27% and the Tories on 35%, not one of these figures turned out to be within the margin of error.

The actual night itself will go down in many political activists minds as one of complete horror. The high turnout caused immense problems at polling stations - only resolved by a late court order; many of the counts themselves were a farce, and the competitive coverage by the TV stations led to a number of mistakes partly by believing rumours from Twitter. Strangely enough, the "elephant in the room" of postal votes produced little more than a frisson of horror at the numbers rejected in some seats, although the small rash of arrests for personation on the day in three Birmingham seats caused both a problem for the BBC and two of the election petitions.
 
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I tend to hate timelines about recent events (i.e.: within the past decade), but this one seems intriguing.
 
Telephone transcript, 6th of May 2010, about 12:10

Voice 1: So hows he holding up, has he emerged from the bunker yet?
Voice 2: Aye, he's nae doing bad, he's been to vote, gurned at the cameras and he's now back in house, the agent wanted him to do polling stations.
Voice 1: Polling stations, after last week! just keep him away from the fucking public, Jamie
Voice 2: Aye, it's all under control, he didnae want to meet people anyway and that big radge won't be suggesting anything again for a while from A+E
Voice 1: Good work, a wee slip of the baseball bat?
Voice 2: Nay, I ran over the idiot's foot
Voice 1: That's fucking subtle for you, has he taken his pills?
Voice 2: Aye, both of them, he's nice and calm
Voice 1: That's guid, just make sure you have the Largactil handy for when the exit polls come out
Voice 2: Aye and a handful of spare Nokias
Laughter and the line goes dead

From Eton Rifles by Steve Hilton

By the mid-morning of polling day, it was pretty clear that we would have to game out the strategy of spin control for the evening. The idea was to get positive messages out as much as possible during the day within the confines of the Broadcasting restrictions. Despite careful planning and several thought showers on polling day, candidates were generally being very old-school and projecting the wrong image with "telling" and "knocking up", rather than organising flashmobs or engaging in banter with young voters on Twitter. There again, after Nadine's antics the week before, perhaps that was just as well.

However, just as I was about to mind-map the selection of crinklies and has-beens on hand to do the early shift on the election night programmes, the monitoring unit paged me to watch the video of the One O'Clock news on the Beeb. It was a disaster, the usual bland "polls are open", a bit of coverage of the last opinion polls from the night before - which seemed someone skewed by omission and then one short clip of Brown going to the polling station to vote. Nothing for Dave, despite the careful work of making sure that he cycled there and that lots of young people turned out to vote at the same time. Luckily nothing for Clegg or Farage either, which was amazing considering the plane crash had been on the last three radio bulletins. I rang the BBC News Unit to await the usual hailstorm of bullshit disguised as explanation.

Birmingham Hall Green, LibDem HQ

JE: Give me some figures
IB: Well, it's difficult to say, nothing from Sparkbrook, but we expected that. the 12:30 backups from Springfield and Hall Green show the same thing, turnout running at about twice that of the local elections. Moseley is a bit quieter, but I've got less tellers out there.
JE: Is it good for us or bad?
IB: What we have in Moseley looks good, Hall Green is a bit meh - lots of Tories, Springfield is a bit too Labourish for my liking but it's soft Labour.
JE: Dot and Doris knock-ups out?
IB: Yes, that's the next step, but to be honest, pensioners are coming out very nicely on their own at the moment, but it will keep people busy and stop them sodding off to the pub or Solihull.
JE: So overall?
IB: Lots and Lots of older voters, that's the trend. I reckon we could see a low sixties turnout, which is probably OK for us, any higher and I'll start to worry.
JE: Any sign of Selly Oak?
IB: You must be joking, I stopped believing that shower would turn up weeks ago, but I've got five coming from Bromsgrove to Hall Green ward.
JE: Email from Tan, the Burkha Bus just been spotted at Reddings Lane
IB: Right, I'll ring Danny then.
 
Reddings Lane, Tyseley

SDC: Here they come, ten went in and now ten went out.
CAK: So what now?
SDC: We follow them, if they go to another polling station and vote, then we nick them
CAK: Why? I know this is against the law, but surely it's not that important?
SDC: Don't you want to know that your MP is honestly elected? That the people we work with local policing aren't criminals themselves?
CAK: I suppose so. Right, I've got the photos, lets see where they go.

Recovering our Roots - John Cruddas

The early afternoon of the 6th was an exemplar in what was wrong with politics inside the Labour Party. I was out with a team knocking up in Village Ward in my constituency - whilst I had sent quite a few activists over to Barking because of the strong challenge there by the BNP, I'd kept some people back to make sure of removing the BNP from the wards in my seat.

Things hadn't been going well, the agent and I had taken a decision to concentrate on older voters who were part of the Labour promised during the day and we had been knocking them up since about 11am. Time and time again, we were being told "not after what you did to that lady in Rochdale". I'd strongly disapproved of the line taken on Gillian Duffy, to me she represented many of my constituents who didn't like what had happened to their communities since 1997. Letting Malkiavelli unleash his attack dogs on her was a stupid, terrible mistake. I'd called a telephone conference with the ward agents at 3pm to discuss the situation, but it didn't feel good.

However, from about 1pm onwards, my knocking up was constantly interrupted by the Labour aristocracy ringing to take feelings about the obviously upcoming leadership contest. We knew we weren't going to get a majority and Gordon was fatally damaged by what had happened in Rochdale. Eventually, after calls from a minion of Ed B, David M in person and oddly Ed M in fairly quick succession, I sat down on a bench and sighed. It was possibly the most important day for the Labour party since 1997 and the leadership of this party was busy plotting each others downfall instead of getting the vote out.

Battle for Britain - Andrew Marr

Whilst I had left the BBC in 2005, I still did some work for them and Election Night is always an "all hands to the pump" affair and as such I had been assigned what I felt to be a good role in shadowing Nick Clegg on the night. I went into about 1pm to talk to Nick Robinson about how the night was supposed to go before heading up to Sheffield.

Nick was somewhat under siege, his Conservative sympathies from his university days had been constantly attacked for the first two years after his appointment by Labour spin doctors as being biased. His reaction to this had perhaps gone a little too far the other way and he was now considered to be extremely pro-Labour, despite such evidence as his question to Gordon Brown at the 2009 Labour conference. In addition, he had taken personal offence to the nickname of "Toenails" which had been created for him by Guido Fawkes and which quickly took root amongst the more neanderthal wing of the blogging fraternity.

Over the last week of the election, the BBC's political news coverage had been balanced, yet unbalanced, it had veered from pro-Tory to pro-Labour in fairly equal measures and had not given the Liberal Democrats anywhere near enough time - especially considering their rise in the polls. One of the worst episodes had been during the so-called Bigotgate, where the liberal cultural bias of the BBC had given rise to very sympathetic coverage of the Prime Minister rather than Gillian Duffy - who as far as many BBC types concerned was just a "stupid, common, northern woman".

When I got to Nick's office, he was on the phone to "The Gorbals Goebbels" who was informing Nick who the main players would be for Labour on election night in the studio and how they were to be treated. After a couple of minutes of half-hearing the shouting down the phone, the call ended and Nick started to discuss the forthcoming night with me.

His opinion was that being with Clegg was unimportant and that obviously as the Liberal vote was fading that it was a bit of a crap assignment, however, in the possible event of a hung parliament, then obviously it could become quite centre stage - hence he wanted me to do it. My tasks were to concentrated on LibDem disappointment, dismay and try and question Clegg on what his price would be to form a coalition with Labour. I started to question this, but then the phone rang again, this time it was Steve Hilton for the Tories and a wave represented the end of my audience. I headed off to St Pancras in a rather disturbed mood, making a mental note to ring Mark Pack - the Cowley Street numbers man on the train. I also wondered if I fancied the job of head of BBC News after the election as I suspected whoever win would demand a few heads rolling.

Iron Angle Birmingham Post, 14th May 2010

There has been some speculation about why Labour didn't do as badly in Birmingham last week as the rest of the core cities. Sir Albert, with characteristic modesty, has put it down a well planned campaign with messages that resonated with the electorate. This may be so, but it doesn't explain the whispers of election petitions in Ladywood and Perry Barr. The more sensible Tories have other ideas - that they overstretched themselves with four target seats when they should have only had two and that too many candidates just did their own thing rather than contributing to the greater effort. A well placed Tory source tells me a story from the afternoon of election day, when the Regional Agent spent over an hour arguing with campaign teams in no-hope Birmingham seats to move them into the three key targets, it seems they preferred vanity operations against the Liberals to try and deny them seats instead of concentrating their fire and winning more themselves.

Telephone Call, May 6th 13:40

Voice 1: I suppose you'd like the opinion poll splits for 1pm
Voice 2: No, opinion polls are about as exciting as Chlamydia
Voice 1: Oh, I was told to tell you first, I'll just leak them on twitter
Voice 2: Unintelligible - may be "Fucksocks" I'll get my geek
Voice 1: Well, don't be long, I may be using an encrypted phone, but people might look at me funny
Voice 2: Pal, they look at you fucking funny anyway
Voice 3: So what's the split then?
Voice 2: 33/28/27
Voice 3: Con/Lab/Lib?
Voice 2: Yeah
Voice 3: Shit, that's not good
Voice 2: No and I'm not sure about the sample, the turnout is a bit high and we haven't normalised it properly ...
Voice 1: Well, thanks pal, speak to you again later
 
Imitation...

Hmm...everyone's doing "Election 2010" threads now....:)

So far, so interesting. Looking forward to a bit more flesh on the skeleton.
 
Hmm...everyone's doing "Election 2010" threads now....:)

So far, so interesting. Looking forward to a bit more flesh on the skeleton.

I will happily admit yours as an inspiration. I did some toying around with figures on the long drag back from Singapore in January, but I wasn't confident enough to do a timeline at that point.

This one is more concentrated on the election itself, election night will be in graphic gory detail. It's also going to be a bit Birmingham-centric for some of the colour scenes, because I know elections in Birmingham rather well. I'll probably take it as far as the budget - maybe even as far as the three by-elections.

I still have a little bit of work to do on re-calculating declaration times, so there may be another colour piece tonight and one on Sunday.
 
I will happily admit yours as an inspiration. I did some toying around with figures on the long drag back from Singapore in January, but I wasn't confident enough to do a timeline at that point.

This one is more concentrated on the election itself, election night will be in graphic gory detail. It's also going to be a bit Birmingham-centric for some of the colour scenes, because I know elections in Birmingham rather well. I'll probably take it as far as the budget - maybe even as far as the three by-elections.

I still have a little bit of work to do on re-calculating declaration times, so there may be another colour piece tonight and one on Sunday.

Thanks, Iain. It's a long time since I was on the political coal-face and was an election Agent. My two contributions based on an election count "somewhere in southern England" were loosely based on that.

I assume from the title there will be an interesting outcome in Morley & Outwood. My numbers were (in your order) 29-26-34 and you might be suggesting 33-28-27 so Labour might be largest party (just) with the LDs probably on 65-75 seats rather than my 125.

I found this for constituency declaration times from the Press Association:

http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm
 
Early Afternoon, 6th May

West Midlands Police Statement, 6th May 3pm

Following tip-off from a member of the public, Officers from East Birmingham Unit observed a minibus full of people wearing religious garb visiting polling stations and voting multiple times at different polling stations. The minibus was stopped between Hall Green School and Yorkmead School, 10 people were arrested for electoral offences and have been taken to Acocks Green police station. All cultural and religious customs have been taken into account of during these arrests.

Battle for Britain - Andrew Marr

Once I had settled onto the train at St Pancras, I answered a few emails and then rang Dr Mark Pack at Cowley Street. Mark was (and still is) the LibDems main numbers guy. Mark was slightly uneasy in speaking to me, suggesting that I should speak to one of the Press Officers, I explained the role I was taking that evening and the line I had been given by Nick Robinson, I also explained that I was uneasy with it and it didn't match my perception of the last few days. He again tried to hand me off, but I persisting, saying that I didn't want to be a fool when interviewing Nick and I needed a decent appraisal of what the real chances were. I also checked the Twittered exit poll leak with him.

Mark obviously relaxed a bit and explained that he thought the "Cleggasm" was a false peak, it had increased the number of activists, provided new activists and increased donations but from their central data had provided just a small "uptick". This had enabled them to provided additional resources to "small number" of seats which had not been seriously targetted. However, he had seen a change in the last few days which indicated a further "uptick" and some resources had switched from defense to attack, he indicated that about 40 seats were considered "safe" and that just over 60 seats had access to central resources and mutual aid.

When I asked him about the leaked exit split, he said that he felt it was about right for the Tories and wrong for the LibDems and Labour, but the LibDem figure would depend on turnout from younger voters and the Labour figure might be a bit high. He stated that the problem with the polls was that they were always fighting the last election and that their turnout models would be the key to their success or failure. He felt that both the Alliance for Democracy (aka the BNP) and UKIP would make up the majority of the "Others".

I asked him for a ballpark figure for the LibDems, he said that he felt the situation was hazy, but if the poll was right, then 75-85 seats depending on circumstances. I thanked him for his time and asked if I could email him later if I had any more poll leaks.

I reflected on this as the train headed north. If Mark was correct and his view fitted in with my perceptions, then presenting this as a LibDem failure would be entirely wrong. It would be best to be upbeat with Nick and play this one with him as a potential kingmaker. I mulled this over whilst reading some of the more amusing tweets from partisan supporters and reminding myself of what one LibDem agent of long standing had said on a politics site had posted "If you've got time to twat about on Twitter in election day, you aren't working hard enough". Very true and it's amazing how much useful information from the grass routes, there is amongst the background noise on Twitter. For instance, why were Huddersfield LibDems calling for people to come and help.


A House Divided - Michael Crick

It was probably apparent to both brothers Milliband after Bigotgate, that the Labour Party would be unable to reach a majority on its own. The two shared a common love of the Labour Party, but both had different feelings on the path it should take. However, despite unofficial soundings by their supporters, neither actually took any action until the exit poll leak on the election afternoon. There was a lengthy telephone conversation between the two brothers at around 2:30pm, the contents of which has yet to be divulged and by about 3pm both had stopped campaigning and were working the phone to their supporters to organise for what would happen after the election. David continued with that for much of the early evening - before deciding to rest before a potentially gruelling night, but Ed was distracted from the fray much earlier by events in the Doncaster area.

Phone Call, Birmingham Hall Green

JE: How's it going, it's very busy over here.
IB: Very busy here, I think we are looking at much higher turnout than we thought.
JE: What does that mean?
IB: Well, normally, I'd say it was good for Labour, but the knock up is very positive and a lot of people are self-identifying to the Tellers. I've got half a dozen people come from Sandwell, so I've started telling another box.
JE: And the Burkha Bus?
IB: Had an email from Rich Agar, they have been arrested
JE: Good, should we do a leaflet about that?
IB: Do you want to lose the election? Just get it spread around the usual suspects fast
JE: OK, I'll get Tan on it. We're they Labour or Respect.
IB: Who knows?
JE: Hall Green?
IB: Haven't had the backup on schedule, they have lots of help from Yardley, Bromsgrove and Redditch. I'll ring the Fat Man.
JE: There's a fairly big group outside Conway School now and it's starting to get nasty, can you ring the police.
IB: How many?
JE: About 300 according to Nahim, so probably about 150, mainly Wespec and Labour, ours are being good and staying out of it.
IB: OK, I'll ring the police, now get a bit of rest, the after work rush is going to be horrid.

from the blog of MickTheGuy - Tory activist - Thoughts on the election 2

Polling day quite shocked me, I spent most of the day in the Perry Barr seat, acting as agent for the Handsworth Wood ward intending to go to Edgbaston about 5pm. I'd wanted to go there all day, but we were fighting a somewhat strange campaign based around the idea that we could pick up a second seat in Oscott, but in reality, it was more about stopping the Liberals.

Handsworth Wood itself has a lot of Sikh voters and I'd learnt over the last few months that party politics was fairly irrelevant, what mattered was who was backed by the gurdwaras. The rules went out of the window here, officially, you weren't supposed to have more than two people per party acting as tellers by the polling station. Here, there were groups of 10-15 people all from Labour hassling voters as they went in, although only Asian voters.

On entering one polling station, I found Labour literature scattered in the polling booths, Labour members wearing colours inside talking to voters and the Presiding Officer not giving a damn. I understood why later, when a young Sikh woman came to me to complain that her mother had her ballot filled in by the Presiding Officer for Labour "to save time".

I made an official complaint to the Elections Office after the election, I couldn't get through on the day and decided that I'd had enough of this forlorn hope in Perry Barr and headed for Edgbaston. I started to understand that day why a lot of Birmingham Liberals hated the Labour party far more than you'd think for a bunch of sandal-wearers.
 
Thanks, Iain. It's a long time since I was on the political coal-face and was an election Agent. My two contributions based on an election count "somewhere in southern England" were loosely based on that.

I assume from the title there will be an interesting outcome in Morley & Outwood. My numbers were (in your order) 29-26-34 and you might be suggesting 33-28-27 so Labour might be largest party (just) with the LDs probably on 65-75 seats rather than my 125.

I found this for constituency declaration times from the Press Association:

http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge10/dec.htm

I am still active at the political coal face, I have been a local election agent and a Parliamentary agent virtually every year for the last 12 years. I wasn't last year, but I was up for re-election in 2010. I was heavily involved with a Held Seat and a Target Seat in that campaign though.

Yes, I've used that as the basis along with a spreadsheet from the electoral commission. I must admit that I'd still like to know how the two Newham counts took 25 hours - supposedly non-stop :D

I think you'll find quite a bit of this to be a surprise, when you start getting into some of the odder numbers, all sorts of strange things start happening.:D
 
Comment...

Interesting update once again - I've heard some horror stories from Birmingham over the years but I found Presiding Officers were very variable in their interpretation of the law.

One made the Tellers stand outside in the rain because he argued they shouldn't be in the precincts of the building while another would bring tea and coffee with biscuits to the tellers when it was quiet. In some areas, you weren't allowed ANY contact with the voters on the way in while in others it was much more friendly especially in rural areas where people were handing over voting cards BEFORE they had gone in to vote.

Named rosettes in the presence of the Presiding Officer was generally a no-no and I had to remind more than one candidate of that though all I wanted most candidates to do on Polling Day was either working the phones or keeping out of the way.

I always found with Opposition Tellers that once the initial doubt was past, everyone was very co-operative and made sure all the numbers were picked up even in the busiest of times. When I was a Teller myself, I soon found out that you could talk to your counterparts about anything other than politics and they would be perfectly friendly easy-going people. Tellers aren't usually committed activists but occasionally it's good to get out of the Committee HQ for an hour or so as you know.
 
I spent May 6 2010 in a constituency HQ for our lot and you've certainly captured the atmosphere here well. There was a bloke who thought he was Malcolm Tucker strutting around demanding 'Jamaicans' to accompany him in a knocking-up attempt to get the black vote out. Lovely.

I'm intrigued to see what the difference will be here. Farage in the debates seems to be the PoD, but what will happen next? The title implies a Balls-led Labour Party, but will this be a minority government that has a simple majority of 1 or 2 thanks to FPTP?
 
Interesting update once again - I've heard some horror stories from Birmingham over the years but I found Presiding Officers were very variable in their interpretation of the law.

One made the Tellers stand outside in the rain because he argued they shouldn't be in the precincts of the building while another would bring tea and coffee with biscuits to the tellers when it was quiet. In some areas, you weren't allowed ANY contact with the voters on the way in while in others it was much more friendly especially in rural areas where people were handing over voting cards BEFORE they had gone in to vote.

Named rosettes in the presence of the Presiding Officer was generally a no-no and I had to remind more than one candidate of that though all I wanted most candidates to do on Polling Day was either working the phones or keeping out of the way.

I always found with Opposition Tellers that once the initial doubt was past, everyone was very co-operative and made sure all the numbers were picked up even in the busiest of times. When I was a Teller myself, I soon found out that you could talk to your counterparts about anything other than politics and they would be perfectly friendly easy-going people. Tellers aren't usually committed activists but occasionally it's good to get out of the Committee HQ for an hour or so as you know.

Birmingham is a nightmare, the wards are huge (16-20,000) and the number of useful activists is relatively low for everyone. It's cleaner than it has been now for some years, but I'm including most of the horror stories I've picked up over the last ten years or so to make it entertaining. Normally, it's just postal vote fiddling (although not on an industrial scale anymore) and a bit of mild personation (which has been a tradition in Sparkbrook since the 1930's :D).

The three major parties have tried to clean up their act (although the Tories never had much of a problem as their inner city presence is virtually zero), but some parts of the city are still riddled with "gangster politics". I spent a good part of 2006-7 removing some bad boys who we got from Labour in 2003 and who have now ended up with Respect.

Party names on Rosettes are the usual bed in the bonnet of most presiding officers in Birmingham, but generally they are pretty friendly. They do come up with some bloody odd ideas at times - the bin bag ballot box of 2004 still has me shuddering.

Tellers usually co-operate pretty well and activists usually get on with each other as well. The only problems is when the "gangs" form at polling stations as you'll see later. The real problem is all this could be dealt with, but the police don't give a flying fuck - because some of their high-ups see community cohesion has being more important than democracy.
 
I spent May 6 2010 in a constituency HQ for our lot and you've certainly captured the atmosphere here well. There was a bloke who thought he was Malcolm Tucker strutting around demanding 'Jamaicans' to accompany him in a knocking-up attempt to get the black vote out. Lovely.

I'm intrigued to see what the difference will be here. Farage in the debates seems to be the PoD, but what will happen next? The title implies a Balls-led Labour Party, but will this be a minority government that has a simple majority of 1 or 2 thanks to FPTP?

Even I have been known to get Tuckeresque on occasions. Especially when dealing with a regional agent who has in his infinite wisdom decided to pull all my knockers-up back and my tellers in order to put out another leaflet on polling day at 2pm.

I believe he got the full bollocking including the full quote of Tucker's Law and then got told to fuck off to Hereford and never return.

The first PoD is actually the legal case about the debates, this means that there's a full set of UKIP candidates in every seat across the country. There's also more BNP candidates and more Green candidates (but not enough to get a debate place in either place) and a slack handful more Socialist type candidates. There's also a minor coup in the BNP, which actually doesn't have much significance in the end (it was going to, but I found it just too depressing). Essentially to try and muscle in on the debate, the BNP and the English Democrats have stood as "The Alliance for British Democracy" and the Greens tried to sort out a deal with the Trots which failed.

The second PoD is that Bigotgate goes as it could have done, very, very badly and Brown refuses to backtrack and tries to unleash "the forces of hell" on Gillian Duffy.

Anyway, I've delivered my leaflets for today. done the washing, emailed some casework, the answering machine is empty and I have got the up to the first declaration planned out - so lets see how far we can get before the call of the ironing.
 
6th of May, 2010 - Early Evening

from Just Labour - Ed Milliband

Part of Labour's problem in 2010 was just how etiolated the party was in some of its strongholds, because we hadn't been challenged for decades in some of the seats there was very little in the way of canvas and very few activists who had fought real battles for a number of years. Of course, safe seats had often lent support to local marginals, but in some areas those were some distance away. We had disconnected with the core vote in those areas as well, as Jon Cruddas had been pointing out for some years. Slogans revolving around "Social Capital, Social Interest and Social Mobility" and very little action on issues that mattered to people outside of the London intelligencia had finally taken their toll on the previously strong attachment to Labour.

Doncaster was somewhat better off than many of the safe seats surrounding it, the terrible corruption around the council had been replaced by a very fragmented council led by an eccentric Mayor who showed the massive shortcomings of the Supplemental Vote (and of Elected Mayors). However, Labour had to lead the fightback in the area and we had better and more experienced activists than say down in Rotherham. The 2008 results had not been as bad as previous years and we did hope that turnout would help us win most seats, but a reasonable amount of groundwork had gone in to ensure that we took most wards. The dangerous alliance between the BNP and the English Democrats had sparked another round of canvassing which had indicated we were on the right track for a decent victory in 2010 at the council level.

As a result of this, we had not sent as many activists to marginals as previous general election years and had more people on the ground, although many were only joining us at 6pm for a big knock up to get the vote out. A few people had gone to Sheffield Central and some more had gone to Leeds North West, but that was about all.

I'd just finished a lengthy and somewhat stressful call from David which had mainly been about what would happen after the election and was back to dealing with some emails from those with nothing better to do on election day but plot when the local agent and Rosie came in looking anxious.

It seemed that turnout was high and the mood was hostile, tellers in two wards were reporting a constant refrain of "not this time" or "anyone but you lot" - especially from older voters. They had spent some time doing a knock and check and it seemed that whilst we expected to be 8-10% down, we were more like 20% down with the morning crowd. This was probably OK for myself in North, but it could be troublesome to Rosie and potentially terrible for the council elections.

I asked about other parties activity, but apart from the Mayor making himself a pain, it was the usual activity by the usual suspects. The general feeling was that it would get better in the evening, but Rosie also said that more young people were voting than usual and they were known to be inclined to the Liberals.

We made a quick decision to get the knock-up going as soon as possible and get a presence on the streets. The agent started calling people in the telephone tree and Rosie and I started calling activists back from Leeds and Sheffield and seeing if there was any mutual aid available from other seats.

Sky News, 4:25pm

Studio: Well, thank you Kay for that report on what's happening at the Cameron house. We will now go to Birmingham where Shefali Khan will tell us of the amazing scenes outside of a police station. Shefali...

Hello, we are outside Acocks Green police station where as you can see a couple of hundred political activists from the Respect party are listening to local councillor and election candidate Salma Yacoob. About an hour ago, ten women in very traditional Muslim clothes were arrested on the suspicion of personation at a polling station about a mile away. The crowd are looking for their immediate release and claiming that this is dirty tricks and Islamophobia and she's trying to calm them down.

Studio: That looks quite scary, there are people blocking the road and rather a lot of angry gestures. Have you spoken to the police?

Yes, John, I've spoken to Inspector Richard Agar, who says that it was all part of their operation to make sure the conduct of the election was correct. The persons arrested are being identified and interviewed. Cllr Yacoob has demanded to see them, but a legal adviser went in a few minutes ago.

Studio : Do you think it may turn into a riot?

I don't know, but more and more people are turning up in cars and there's a number of onlookers as well. Hang on, the legal advisor is coming out and speaking to the crowd.

Studio: What's he saying

He's speaking in Urdu, which isn't my best language, but the gist of it is that none of them are women, that multiple polling cards were found when they were searched and that he recognises some of them as being family members of Labour members.

Studio: Wow, that's a turnaround, Blokes in Burkhas, eh. Well, Shefali, we are just cutting over to Adam Boulton, but we'll be back to you soon.

from Eton Rifles by Steve Hilton

By about 5pm, I was on tenterhooks waiting for an update from my sources within the polling companies. The lunchtime one hadn't been that good for us and showed us looking at being the largest party, I'd tried a mood board with this, but most people were disappearing from the office to go and help in Hammersmith or Hampstead and Kilburn where the balloon was up.

I'd spent the rest of the afternoon trying to convince George that our opener on the BBC should be Portillo, rather than Hurd. Personally, I think it should have been a young black guy, preferable a female young black guy - but the BBC said they needed a name. I think having Tinchy Stryder or Lady Sovereign leading off our election coverage would truly speak volumes for the way that the party has changed.

I'd then arranged a short interview between Dave and Kay Burley on Sky, this was just a colour piece with no real political content and nice and safe. Most politicians love being interviewed by Kay as compared to Jezza or Jon or Kirsty, it's like dealing with a child with learning difficulties.

Eventually the email came through. it seemed the afternoon had been good for us despite the rumours about a targeted get-out-the-vote text. We were up to 34%, the Libs were on 28% and Labour had slipped to 27%. I went to find a tame numbers wizard who would tell me what to say to Dave about this. I had no difficulty finding one, most of them aren't allowed near the public, but trying to make sense of what they say can be very perplexing.

From Politicalhedging.com

TheRon: latest leaks from the exit - Con 34, Lib 28, Lab 27

Sean Scared: That still feels wrong to me, I'm seeing a high turnout here compared to previous elections and I don't think any of it is going Labour's way, but if it gets much higher, then anecdotally the highest turnouts favour Labour.

Sayydi I think that expenses will mean that each constituency behaves differently this time, so the Tories may win seats with some scandals but may lose others. I don't think UNS works this time

jfsl Farage - broken bones but nothing life-threatening, I wonder if it will get him a sympathy vote in Buckingham?

andyk I've just seen Sheerman, he looks worried, a lot of yellow peril around today and they seem to have a lot of student help.

Cockatiel I think that the exit probably overstates Labour. I think it will be CON 37, LD 32, LAB 23. This is going to be a crazy night and CON and LD could be even closer than that.

The Diving Falcons Anyone just seen Sky, that dozy bint Salma Yacoob has just made a right cock-up over some voting fraud, seems the "shamed women" were Labour blokes. I really hope she doesn't get elected, but with Labour down the toilet who knows. Still don't like the exit, but it's going to be the workers voting next on their way home, that should shift it.

Witan That's still a lot of others on the exit poll. Knocking of 2% for the various Nits, that leaves 9%, perhaps UKIP are heading back up after their dip after the third debate.

Socrates I can't see the Labour vote going down that low, too many people on benefits. Has anyone debunked the "the tories will stop your benefits texts"

Dodger This swingback will be very, very late.


Birmingham Hall Green HQ

IB: Look there is not time for another leaflet. It's not happening, it's coming up to 6pm and I've got third knocks on key boxes and untelled knocks to get off just after I get the 6pm numbers input. It won't make a difference, most people won't read it.
MM: But, it's important, she's wrong, she's got no judgement, she wanted to allow people to break the law. We need to tell people.
IB: Martin, it's on Sky, the other channels may well pick it up. It's all over Twatter. More people will hear about this than from a poxy leaflet. Now, you are doing a very valuable role, carry on doing it. But print a few dozen and give them to the phone team and the knockers up to keep them informed.

IB: *claps hands*

IB: Right folks, can I remind you all to put contributions in the tin to pay for the food and coffee - can't break the law. Charlotte is printing off the cards for this knock. We are expanding the field, some of you will be going into the Traf Road and Martin de Porres boxes - our data is a bit old here, so you are only getting the D's, please report back if there are any changes. If this is your last run for the night, then thank you very much, if you can do one more, then I'll be dispatching people at 8pm. Tan is bringing hot food from 7:30, there will be a vegetarian option.

Phone rings

IB: Hi, Emily whats up
EC: Salma has about 10 white trots down on Grange Road and York Road. Thought you ought to know.
IB: Shite, our weak spot, bloody candidates interfering with canvass plans. Not a lot we can do about it, I'll deploy Paul to keep an eye on where they go. Thanks Em.
EC: Are we winning?
IB: I don't know, I really don't know. There is the great yawning hole that is Sparkbook. I'd be happier if we had splattered the Pitmaston and Baldwins with the Jerry vs Salma 2-horse race, but it got vetoed.
EC: Well, I can understand why.
IB: Fuck Em, we've got one candidate smearing ours with the paedo leaflet and the other one has her stooges saying "he's a poof" on every doorstep which she pretends butter won't melt in her hijab and we have to play nice.
EC: I know what you mean, anyway, when the sitter arrives I'll come and do another two hours of calls.
IB: Bless you.

IB: Charlotte, I'm thinking of knocking soft Tories on the last knock. It's too close, I didn't like the last Springfield backup and in some boxes I'm running out of people to knock and it's only 6pm.
CF: Running out?
IB: Yes, turnout in Nappy Valley is already over 60%, by next time, I'll be putting walks together to get a decent run.
CF: So what's the turnout going to be?
IB: I'd take a punt at a smidge under 70% for the seat and 75% for the ward.
CF: Fuck we are going to be there all night.
IB: Yeah, but you get to stare at Steffano and Dave all night, I get to look at the Fat Man in the Yardley count.
CF: laughs. Fag time?
IB: Yeah, it's only the 30th of the day.
 
Essentially to try and muscle in on the debate, the BNP and the English Democrats have stood as "The Alliance for British Democracy" and the Greens tried to sort out a deal with the Trots which failed.

Don't the English Democrat's leadership hate the BNP's and vice-versa. Given how riven they are with feuds, I can't say that it would strike me as being that unlikely.
 
Don't the English Democrat's leadership hate the BNP's and vice-versa. Given how riven they are with feuds, I can't say that it would strike me as being that unlikely.

Indeed, but if the equally riven left can unite temporarily around elections, so can the right at least temporarily. The lure of a place in the debate, less lost deposits and a chance in the political sunlight, after all the BNP just kept it together until the election.
 
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