What if General Malet had overthrown Napoleon on October of 1812?

[maverick]

General Malet, a discontent republican general that opposed Napoleon becoming an Emperor, and under arrest between 1810 and 1812, planned a Valkyrie-like operation against Napoleon on October of 1812, following the disaster that was the Russian Campaign.

This is of course had to pull off, since in this case Napoleon is still out there, fighting the Sixth Coalition.

Two ideas come to me:

1. What if Malet's plot had advanced somewhat more? How far can they go before Napoleon makes it back or is confirmed as alive?

2. What if Napoleon had in fact been assassinated or killed on October of 1812? There were no Malet conspirators within the ranks of the Grandee Armee, but what if there were? or what if by an unbelievable coincidence, Napoleon had died or been incapacitated amidst the Malet Plot?

During his detention Malet conceived of and planned Napoleon's overthrow in a daring coup d'état. The plan was simple: on October 23, 1812 during the Emperor's absence on the Russian front, Malet planned to announce the death of Napoleon and to establish a provisional government. Malet decided to proclaim his death via the use of forged documentation, hoping the plausible declaration would be believable.

Malet's proposed provisional government would be composed of Mathieu de Montmorency, Alexis de Noailles, General Moreau as vice president, Lazare Carnot as president, Marshal Augereau, ex-legislator Bigonnet, Count Frochot, Prefect of the Seine, ex-legislator Florent Guiot, Destutt de Tracy, Malet himself, Vice-Admiral Truguet, Senator Volney, and Senator Garrat. The forces involved in the coup were the Gendarmerie forces of Paris (which were dissolved thereafter and formed the 134th Line Infantry Regiment) and the 10th Cohort of the French National Guard.

Malet prepared complex instructions and forged documents for his accomplices. This preliminary work was immense, since it was necessary to give each accomplice an important role, specific instructions, and forged copies of the senatus consultus and the proclamations. As soon as a set of instructions was completely prepared, the dispatch was closed, sealed, numbered and entrusted to the custody of a Spanish priest who lived in Saint-Gilles street, close to the barracks of the 10th National Guard Cohort.

On the night of the October 23, Malet escaped his captivity. Dressed in a general's uniform, he presented himself at the La Force prison and, using forged orders, obtained the release of Generals Lahorie and Guidal, to whom he announced Napoleon's demise on October 7 at the Russian front near Moscow. He then convinced Lahorie and Guidal that immediate action was necessary and showed the forged documents leading them to believe the Senate had already reacted to the death of the Emperor

 

[Japhy]

If the Coup is a success, Napoleon still finds out about it in November. If he abandons the Grand Armee to try and solve things on his own he can of course make it quickly back, at which point the show might very well end for Malet unless he and his conspiracy have gained popular approval by then.

Or Napoleon takes his time and brings his German and Polish troops (And the Old Guard) with him, which of course means he has more punch if there is popular support but, the question remains if the French people will stand against Napoleon with force if necessary.

That said if Malet plays his cards right, Napoleon can be killed somewhere in the Germanies.

At that point, an attempt at peace with the Allied Powers is likely, though the only way that it could work at this low point for France would be if Malet gives up everything France has gained and then some to make the European Powers ignore there own reactionary tendencies for peace.

Long term if a French Republic survives the Revolution, I expect further trouble to come up for the Balance of Power in Europe well before 1848 but I don't really feel qualified to say what beyond "Some sort of war in the 1820's/1830's"

 

[Shawn Endresen]

Most likely everyone agrees on a Regency for Napoleon II and tempers and hostilites die down considerably. Neither the British nor the Austrians are going to feel very threatened by a French Empire once the ogre himself is off the throne, although there will be recriminations in Britain about the amount of money spent thus far, and they'll probably try to get the Regents to let the emigres return to France (since they've become annoying after two decades in Britain).

Malet may want to restore the Republic, but that's going to have no support among conservatives or the Army; he'll be lucky to last three months before he hangs.

If he kills little Napoleon II, then things go pear-shaped; but public opnion will turn against him enough that that actually probably smoothes Joseph's accession.

 

[Mikestone8]

Most likely everyone agrees on a Regency for Napoleon II and tempers and hostilites die down considerably..

Have you read Guido Artom Napoleon Is Dead In Russia?

One of the notable features of the Malet coup is that nobody seems to have given a thought to the King of Rome or the "Empress-Regent" - who wasn't even told about the plot until it was all over.

Those who opposed (and eventually thwarted) Malet did so because they did not believe his story. Those who did believe him seem to have accepted the overthrow of the Bonaparte family with a shrug. With Napoleon gone, his family simply did not count.

One possible compromise might be a constitutional monarchy under the Duc d'Orleans (OTL later to be Louis Philippe). This would be opposed by hardline Royalists and hardline Republicans alike, but by 1812 both had been marginalised. That preserves the reforms of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic eras, but under a ruler not interested in military glory.

 

[Douglas]

I would tend to agree that the Bonapartes are rapidly marginalized, assuming Malet can get someone with the Grande Armee to assassinate Napoleon. After that...it depends on who comes to power in France. If it's a Republic, then we could see France offering to settle out. The question becomes whether the rest of Europe is ok with that.