Thanks for the replies, greatly appreciated.
Are you sure Hitler would still go ahead with his invasion on schedule, despite the French looking much stronger and more menacing than iOTL?
But great timeline; keep it up!
I think Hitler would still go ahead. The German economy needed war or it would spectacularly crash. Hitler reportedly was hoping that someone wouldn't come out of the blue and offer a peace deal - he wanted war. It is true that he was supremely confident of the west's inaction and that Chamberlain, Daladier and Bonnet (the supreme cowardly diplomat) played right into his hands by delaying the inevitable. I can sympathise with Daladier to a point, he vacillated on any major decision but he knew Hitler was evil and was buying more time. Bonnet on the other hand was willing to sell out all of his allies up to the last moment if it meant peace. Reynaud presented the perfect candidate to lead France at that time, unfortunately in OTL he came in far too late.
I think in TTL Hitler will still push the war (he really can't afford not to) and will concentrate on Poland. It makes sense to knock them out as quickly as possible. With the MR Pact signed with Russia he has even more reason to concentrate on them. His neglection of the western front is a giant gamble, but then so were many of his most successful actions up to that point.
Unfortunately for Hitler in TTL, both Poland and France have acted prudently and mobilised their forces much earlier then in OTL. Certainly not unreasonable given the circumstances.
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(CONTINUATION TIMELINE)
September 22: The last defensive position held by the Polish army preventing the encirclement of Warsaw collapse under a ferocious German attack. The Germans demand the immediate surrender of Warsaw but they are refused. The siege of Warsaw begins.
September 23: The French Army secures the city of Cologne and the Rhineland region. Commanding German Officer Major General Ernst Scholz surrenders the city intact in defiance of Hitler's orders to fight street to street. A furious Hitler orders that not an inch of German soil should be abandoned and any soldier found guilty of betraying the Fatherland will be shot.
Former German Chief of the General Staff General Ludwig Beck meets with several other leading German Army Officers, politicians and civil servants including General Halder, Dr. Hjalmar Schacht, Carl Goerdeler, Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, and Colonel Hans Oster about the possibility of staging a putsch to overthrow the Nazi regime.
French Premier Paul Reynaud urges General Weygand to continue the offensive to put pressure on the German Polish front.
September 24: A desperate attempt to relieve the Polish city of Warsaw ends in a crushing defeat for the Polish army.
The French obtain evidence which appears to indicate the extent of the German supply crisis - their initial interrogation of prisoners also corroborates what they have been finding. Despite the evidence General Weygand is cautious and skeptical. Premier Paul Reynaud insists on an immediate further offensive across the Rhine. General Weygand draws up plans for an attack into the Ruhr region on the east of the Rhine.
German defences are also probed further south across the Rhine in the Baden-Wurttemberg region where resistance is fierce. German defensive lines are still intact and their ability to defend suggests the supply situation is not so desperate as once thought.
September 25: General Weygand orders a further offensive across the Rhine into the Ruhr region. Despite his reservations that the French Army is moving too fast he is under immense pressure from Premier Reynaud to conduct an offensive. Whilst there is reason to believe the Germans are suffering supply shortages, he does not believe it is to the extent suggested by some of his other officers.
The offensive coincides with a major Polish counterattack aimed to relieve the siege of Warsaw. The French plan is to provide overwhelming force at a specific point from which they can begin to breakout and secure a stable front. At 0400 French artillery guns begin their concentrated bombardment at predefined points along the front. Within hours a moderate French force is established in force on the opposite bank but they immediately come under pressure from the German army.
Despite overwhelming French superiority in terms of artillery bombardment the Germans are able to prevent a breakout of the French due to their combination of dive bombing and infiltration tactics. The German dive bombers act as a form of artillery that pummels the French force and leaves them vulnerable to massed Infantry attacks. The German infantry then withdraw when they become too exposed and await the next wave of dive bombing. Communication problems also exacerbate the problem for the French and it isn't longer before the offensive becomes a disaster. After suffering severe casualties for no gain General Weygand is forced to abandon the offensive.
September 26: The Anglo French Supreme War Council gathers for the first time in Paris. The speed of the war has left the British stunned and at this point in time the British Expeditionary Force has not yet arrived in France. The current success of the campaign is purely a French affair and as such their opinions tend to dominate the council.
As a result of the failed offensive across the Rhine, General Weygand concludes that the German Army remains well supplied and is prepared for a defensive war across the Rhine. His intention is to consolidate their gains in the Rhineland and await the arrival of the British Expeditionary Force before launching a further major offensive aimed at capturing the Ruhr and Westphalia regions. It would be preferable to launch the invasion in 1940 in the spring.
Although the cautious British endorse this view, his own High Command is not unanimous. General Gaston Billotte (commander 1st Army Group), General Alphonse Joseph Georges (commander 2nd Army Group) and Brigade General Charles De Gaulle are particularly critical. These Officers are able to present their views to Reynaud as he insists on hearing alternatives, much to the dismay of Weygand.
These officers draw different conclusions from the failed offensive, even amongst themselves. General Billotte believes the Germans don't have a supply problem, but he believes they do have a gun problem. They are reliant on the air force to provide their artillery support because they lack the guns. He believes a sustained air superiority mission by the air force, coupled with the transport of anti-aircraft guns to the area would allow the French army to attempt to force a landing again. For this he believes it would be necessary to attack not sooner then 2 weeks after a sustained air and anti-air campaign. This timeframe would allow the first of the BEF to be used as well.
General Georges and Brigade General De Gaulle however believe the Germans are in fact in desperate circumstances now. They both believe they need to push an offensive immediately. They agree with General Billotte's conclusions that the Germans are reliant on their air force to provide artillery support, and therefore it is necessary to attempt a 'broad strategic offensive plan'. In essence they plan to launch multiple simultaneous attacks across the front to overwhelm Germany's ability to effectively target a single point. When one of the attack positions is able to establish a stable defensive position, that point would be reinforced with further troops and heavy equipment. From that point on the French army would attempt a break out.
Reynaud appears receptive to this plan, however he faces opposition from General Weygand. Against his own inclination he gives in to General Weygand's objections and agrees to adopt his more cautious plan. Weygand after all has served admirably with his capture of the Rhineland. Reynaud is able to successfully push the British to provide greater fighter coverage in the region and limited elements of Billotte's plan is adopted.
September 27: The German conspiracy to remove Hitler from power is advanced. The situation is desperate on the western front and many of the conspirators know a sustained attack from the allied forces would result in a collapse. There is support from many senior officers in the Wehrmacht but the plot relies on men with nerves of steel. Despite the gravity of the situation on the western front the plot is delayed.
September 28: The major Polish counterattack to relieve Warsaw ends in abject failure with the total collapse and capture of several divisions of the Polish Army. By now the city of Warsaw has been under siege for 7 days and the Polish High Command are convinced they cannot break through to relieve Warsaw and as such put their hopes on the French Army in the west.
Field Marshal Edward Rydz-Smigly orders Polish troops fighting east of the Vistula to withdraw to the Lwow and then to the Hill regions bordering Romania. Roughly 21 divisions retreat to take up defensive positions in what is dubbed 'the Romanian bridgehead'. The area is served with natural defensive barriers, including swampland, hills and the styrj and dniestr rivers. The region is also home to many ammunition dumps and is linked to the Romanian port of Constanta. The intention is to hold out until the French are victorious. Except for a few small instances the Polish Army will not act offensively for the duration of the war.
This intention is communicated to France where Field Marshal Rydz-Smigly famously quips, 'All eyes are on Paris, all hope with the sons of Napoleon!'.
French Premier Reynaud hesitates and reconsiders adopting Generals Georges and De Gaulle's plan.