Orville_third
Banned
The main reason such civilian targets were used was for blackmail. The same thing happened in WWII.
Protect and Survive: A Timeline
- Thread starter Macragge1
- Start date
I am sorry but my point was that this would have been doable for the Soviet Union in 1983. I don't think they would have, even in an all-out nuclear conflict. But, they might have and it was certainly an option for their nuclear forces as they existed at that time. In fact if your point is that you can imagine that the Soviet Union could receive such an attack but for the US it was unlikely because of the US's greater counterforce capacity, wouldn't the sensible policy for the Soviet Union be launch such a target aimed at most US settlements if it thought all out nuclear war was inevitable?
Actually I think the WWII experience showed the opposite. To use the largest example, the Strategic Bombing campaigns at German cities with the aim of "dehousing" (great euphemism) the civilian propulation to interfere with war production is comparable in intent, if not scale, to Soviet targeting US cities with nuclear weapons.
But if you want excuses to target these small towns to let yourself off the moral hook that you are just aiming at killing as many civilians as possible, to use my random examples of small US towns above and using information from Wikipedia, Pecos TX was a centre of suphur production (basis of a key industrial chemical sulphuric acid, used in explosives and many other things), Vermillion SD is the host of a factory producing cross country vehicles which could be weaponised, Kodiak AK is the home of the SEAL artic training establishment and a large Costguard base near the Russian coast and Tallulah has major road and rail bridges accross the Mississippi.
More generally I think MAD was a powerful incentive to prevent nuclear war and damp down confrontation between the superpowers generally. I think in practice it would have been very hard for a nuclear war to start. However once a crisis reached the stage that nuclear confrontation was perceived as very likely or even inevitable, I think the argument that the structure of the nuclear arsenals of the two superpowers could provide incentives towards very heavy strikes not unreasonable. There were counterincentives of course, but given the potential casualties of such an exchange this could be an uncomfortable thought for those who were living in 1983.
Well, there were some small towns that did have some pretty important targets, you are correct on that. But still, there were probably at least a few thousand towns out there in the U.S. alones with a population of 20,000+ in their general vicinity.....and let's not forget the U.K., Germany, China, France, Italy, Holland, etc., and there were probably a few dozen other countries the USSR would've wanted outta the way{e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia, Iran, Turkey, etc.}.............so thankfully, even in a full out conflict, they would have fallen short had they decided to go that route...............
The presence of Shorts would be a compelling reason for the Soviets. At the time they'd be making Blowpipe missiles for the army. Plus taking out H&W would reduce the number of facilities to repair surviving warships.
Remember that by this stage of the Cold War it was a case of finding targets for warheads, not the other way around. For example the US targeted the man who would be in charge of the USSR's railway network and his deputy, despite the fact they worked in different ends of the same building.
The potential for Belfast to act as an important administrative centre would be on the Soviets minds. What if Whitelaw decided to eventually relocate to Stormont, for example? Militarily at this point in time I'd say Belfast is equally important as Edinburgh and Dundee (more so than the latter, all it had was an ROC Group control), and they were hit.
Actually seeing Dundee hit has a bit of grim humour for me. It was a 'Nuclear Free Zone' after all.
Remember that by this stage of the Cold War it was a case of finding targets for warheads, not the other way around. For example the US targeted the man who would be in charge of the USSR's railway network and his deputy, despite the fact they worked in different ends of the same building.
The potential for Belfast to act as an important administrative centre would be on the Soviets minds. What if Whitelaw decided to eventually relocate to Stormont, for example? Militarily at this point in time I'd say Belfast is equally important as Edinburgh and Dundee (more so than the latter, all it had was an ROC Group control), and they were hit.
Actually seeing Dundee hit has a bit of grim humour for me. It was a 'Nuclear Free Zone' after all.
True, there were a lot of targets, and the United States is very large, and there are also a lot of people scattered in very small towns under 20,000. But the USSR had a lot of strategic weapons (5000, 10,000?? sorry working from memory). The amount of damage it could have caused to the US and the rest of the world is difficult to comprehend - sorry to go on and on about this, but this is why this time line is so good, it is trying to think through just that issue. Nuclear weapons were not magic, everyone was not going to die, but the capacity was carefully and systematically put in place over decades by the USA and the USSR to make the world a very very very bad place. I think future historians and sociologists will find this fascinating.
Atomicpenguin made a very interesting point when he said that he lived in the 80s during all of this and is more worried about national security issues now. I was a teenager in the 80s so maybe am not in the best position to judge, but I remember thinking about nuclear war, finding it interesting in an intellectual sense but not being overly scared or worried. I believed in MAD I guess. I had some friends who were heavily into peace/anti-nuke campaigning and they likewise did not seem particularly scared - outraged at the situation perhaps, but not actually worried.
I think that nuclear war is a classic "Black Swan" type of risk, a very unlikely but very dangerous event. The theory goes that people are not good at dealing with those types of risks and just tend to ignore them. The common response when you talked to people about nuclear war in the 80s that "just about everyone would die" was clearly just a way to avoid thinking through what the effect of a nuclear exchange would actually be.
I'd agree with atomicpenguin. During the CW both sides were led by sane(ish) leaders who knew the consequences and effects of nuclear war.
Today we face enemies who don't care that they might die, in fact some of them relish it. If they got hold of a WMD they'd use it.
British, American, Soviet/Russian, French and Chinese nuclear weapons have never scared me because I know they'll almost certainly never be used. OTOH Iranian, North Korean, Indian and Pakistani nukes do because I think they might be.
Today we face enemies who don't care that they might die, in fact some of them relish it. If they got hold of a WMD they'd use it.
British, American, Soviet/Russian, French and Chinese nuclear weapons have never scared me because I know they'll almost certainly never be used. OTOH Iranian, North Korean, Indian and Pakistani nukes do because I think they might be.
But the nukes under the control of the sane(ish) leaders of the Cold War could have caused damage orders of magnitude larger than that caused Iranian or North Korean nukes. People feel better accepting a low probability, high impact risk, just human nature I guess.
Do you think that the "sane(ish)" nations might consider (now, not in the CW) using their nukes in a situation where one of the others uses theirs (Say, N.Korea nuking Seoul for the sake of this)?
Who knows? I certainly don't and in that lies deterrence. Nobody can ever know for sure and it is common practise for heads of state/government to never say one way, or the other.
Interestingly the only ex-PM to speak on the matter, Jim Callaghan, has said that he would have.
I think what generally reassures me is that I'm pretty sure that the nuclear powers I mentioned would not use their weapons unless they had been attacked with some, or many WMD. I'm not so confident about Iran, or N. Korea not using them in a first strike. I do really worry that if either of them ever gets a viable nuclear capability (the jury is still out on North Korea) then it would be like giving a box of matches and a can of petrol to a pyromaniac.
That is exactly why defending Iran's nuclear ambitions by pointing to the US and UK nuclear arsenals is foolish. The only circumstance the UK would launch is with foreign troops in Piccadilly Square or as a 2nd Strike, and is thus not really a threat to anyone. Both Iran and N. Korea strike me as willing and eager to launch a 1st strike and is thus a massive threat to everyone. North Korea might launch at Seoul but the resulting war would hurt everyone from Sao Paulo to Trondheim.
The Next Update
Hi Macragge1
Now it might just be because I have become adicted to this time line, but I was wondering if you have a rough idea of when we can expect an update on the TL? Im curious to see how you will develope the prospero sortie.
Can anyone help me on this, I was using the Carloslabs predictor to try and figure out my chances, Ive worked out I would be pretty safe provsio that all the weapons hit there targets bang on (ironic i must be the only person in the UK to actually want the intended targets to get hit
) I was wondering though does anyone know what the range circles denote, as am struggling to find a legend on the carlos labs site to explain the various levels , for either the fallout, blast or thermal effects?
Im probably being dumb but if anyone can point me in the right direction on this I would be obliged
Cheers
Hi Macragge1
Now it might just be because I have become adicted to this time line, but I was wondering if you have a rough idea of when we can expect an update on the TL? Im curious to see how you will develope the prospero sortie.
Can anyone help me on this, I was using the Carloslabs predictor to try and figure out my chances, Ive worked out I would be pretty safe provsio that all the weapons hit there targets bang on (ironic i must be the only person in the UK to actually want the intended targets to get hit
) I was wondering though does anyone know what the range circles denote, as am struggling to find a legend on the carlos labs site to explain the various levels , for either the fallout, blast or thermal effects?Im probably being dumb but if anyone can point me in the right direction on this I would be obliged
Cheers
If you click on the map pin marking ground zero a legend will appear.Hi Macragge1
Now it might just be because I have become adicted to this time line, but I was wondering if you have a rough idea of when we can expect an update on the TL? Im curious to see how you will develope the prospero sortie.
Can anyone help me on this, I was using the Carloslabs predictor to try and figure out my chances, Ive worked out I would be pretty safe provsio that all the weapons hit there targets bang on (ironic i must be the only person in the UK to actually want the intended targets to get hit
Im probably being dumb but if anyone can point me in the right direction on this I would be obliged
Cheers
Macragge1
Banned
Hi Macragge1
Now it might just be because I have become adicted to this time line, but I was wondering if you have a rough idea of when we can expect an update on the TL? Im curious to see how you will develope the prospero sortie.
Can anyone help me on this, I was using the Carloslabs predictor to try and figure out my chances, Ive worked out I would be pretty safe provsio that all the weapons hit there targets bang on (ironic i must be the only person in the UK to actually want the intended targets to get hit
Im probably being dumb but if anyone can point me in the right direction on this I would be obliged
Cheers
Gonna get a Prospero done at the weekend; just fine tuning it at the moment
If you click on the icon at the GZ point the site should bring up a key letting you know what the circles mean.
Looking forward to Prospero.
Looking forward to Prospero.
Gonna get a Prospero done at the weekend; just fine tuning it at the moment
Good news out there
Great timeline Macragge1! Very dark. I read the whole thing over two sittings. One of which was late at night which caused some rather "interesting" dreams.
What's going on with the Mid-East, Africa, & South America ITTL? Israel had nukes in 1984, didn't it? Would anybody even bother nuking Africa? Other than South Africa (& possibly North Africa) I don't think there's any Soviet/US targets. What about the Caribbean? Cuba's obviously a US target, but did anything else get nuked? The British, French, & Dutch still have colonies there. Aruba & the Dutch Antiles appear to be completely "orphaned". What about Greenland and the Faroe Islands?
Also, what about the other royals? The Queen & Prince Phillip are dead, King Charles III & Queen Diana are holding court in a country house, and Prince Andrew's at sea (or has his ship been sunk?). What about Princess Anne & her kids? Prince Edward would've been at Cambridge when the universities were closed. He's the youngest and I can see him going with his parents (though it'd also be a good idea to seperate all the senior royals).
Prince William, now Duke of Cornwall is only 18 months old right now and Prince Harry hasn't even been born yet. HMG is going to want to secure as many of the next couple adults in the line of succession as they can in case a regent is needed. I think Anne would be the most likely candidate for regent since Andrew would be at sea (or dead) and Edward's only 20 (IIRC a regent must be at least 21 unless they're also next in line). The Queen Mother would've insisted on staying in London and was probally either in her home or at Westminister Abbey when the bombs fell.
Of course if you really want to create a weird post-war world have enough members of the royal family die so that the UK ends up in a personal union with Norway.
What's going on with the Mid-East, Africa, & South America ITTL? Israel had nukes in 1984, didn't it? Would anybody even bother nuking Africa? Other than South Africa (& possibly North Africa) I don't think there's any Soviet/US targets. What about the Caribbean? Cuba's obviously a US target, but did anything else get nuked? The British, French, & Dutch still have colonies there. Aruba & the Dutch Antiles appear to be completely "orphaned". What about Greenland and the Faroe Islands?
Also, what about the other royals? The Queen & Prince Phillip are dead, King Charles III & Queen Diana are holding court in a country house, and Prince Andrew's at sea (or has his ship been sunk?). What about Princess Anne & her kids? Prince Edward would've been at Cambridge when the universities were closed. He's the youngest and I can see him going with his parents (though it'd also be a good idea to seperate all the senior royals).
Prince William, now Duke of Cornwall is only 18 months old right now and Prince Harry hasn't even been born yet. HMG is going to want to secure as many of the next couple adults in the line of succession as they can in case a regent is needed. I think Anne would be the most likely candidate for regent since Andrew would be at sea (or dead) and Edward's only 20 (IIRC a regent must be at least 21 unless they're also next in line). The Queen Mother would've insisted on staying in London and was probally either in her home or at Westminister Abbey when the bombs fell.
Of course if you really want to create a weird post-war world have enough members of the royal family die so that the UK ends up in a personal union with Norway.
Macragge1
Banned
Operation Prospero [6]
Three miles to go/ At the end of the road/ There's a soldier waiting for me
The aggrieved Swiss airmen were soon placated when...
*
It is unpleasant riding in the back of a pick-up truck at the best of times. When the roads are bad and the driver is bad, it's worse. Sat in two rows facing each other; the American alone in his cab.
The Pilot and the Commando sit face to face. Through some potholes, it becomes nose to nose. The masks are off now, yet sweat still curls their hair in the speeding wind.
There's one country cassette playing and it skips and skips and skips.
In the back, the tired men have noticed he's avoiding the towns.
The road is blocked by a jacknifed wagon. Fingers tighten their hold when they realise the American isn't slowing down. With a gruesome grinding of gears, the truck swerves around the truck and into a ditch. Near to forty-five degrees; The Pilot loses his grip and falls across the back of the truck. The Commando catches him in his substantial arms, lifts him back up. Stubble in the Pilot's ear - 'I've not forgotten'
The record skips with the Pilot's stomach and the pickup keeps speeding on.
In the shadows of leafless trees at speed, it all looks like a slideshow. The Scientist swallows the last of the dramamine. He'd hold his head in his hands if he didn't have to hold on hard. Oh fantastic he's slowing down what a relief - a lurching - this man doesn't slow down for just anything.
A rapping on the rear window - is he asking us to hide? How on earth are we supposed to -
A warning shot.
Bodies hit bodies in the back as he brakes. The Commando peers over the roof; he has his rifle but he's hiding it for now. There are a few figures in front of a green four by four. A man in sunglasses strides towards the vehicle.
'This is as far as you go, buddy'
The American gets out of the pickup truck - his hands are by his sides and he's got an easy smile - 'Hey, son, we're just trying to get through to Rome - I've got me some... VIPs to see the boss'.
'Not this way you don't; besides, you know the rules about burnin' fuel - you're gonna have to hand over your pickup, mister' - the Stranger brings the assault rifle from the crucifix position he was holding it in and slings it towards the truck.
'Now just hold on a second here guys' - the easy smile's still there but it's not so easy - 'just what outfit you with?'
'Vermont Air National Guard, buddy, and this is our truck'
The rest of the 'Guardsmen' are coming towards the team - there's camouflage clothing on a couple of them, but they're barely ready for the parade square. Perhaps most egregious is the gentleman dressed as if he's ready for a barfight - an armband reading 'VANG' serves as his token proof of membership.' His grenade launcher is definitely military, however.
'Gonna have to take your iron as well, fella - and these boys are with us now; can't be leaving foreign combatants in the hands of civilians.' There is a jarring change into an 'English' accent - 'Would you gentlemen care to come wit' us'. The Prospero team did not travel thousands of miles to get mock-curtseyed by a man in a tracksuit. The Commando jumps off the truck and lands on two feet, he's already got the Stranger in his sights. Dead calm but dead loud.
'You've got thirty seconds, cunt.'
The Stranger turns to his companions and laughs. While his back's turned, the American reaches for his belt.
Pop. Pop. Pop. One would have thought that six-shooter would have been louder. The rest of the team open up; it seems that though the 'Guardsmen' sure could swagger with those weapons, they had a harder time aiming them - it's over as quickly as it begins.
'National Guard my ass! C'mon boys, we've made quite a ruckus'
Driving in silence again, moving into dusk - suddenly sound.
'Thanks guys...you saved my hide out there...thankyou'
Is the American tearing up? They can't see and they've nothing really to say, but they're polite and reply and then we fall back into silence - except for crunching gears and that fucking cassette.
They're asleep when the truck stops - bleary eyed, they're led into lights which blind them and the smell and heat of a coal fire. This place is pristine - they've seen nothing like it since the war began; they look guiltily at their filthy boots and the damage they're doing. The American just looks and smiles. There's guards in front of big mahogany doors; now these men look like proper soldiers.
The doors swing open and there's a man in a clean suit, sitting at a tidy desk. His hair's perfect. He stands up and offers a warm grin.
'Now, Gentlemen, I reckon it's been a long trip, and I reckon y'all want some answers'.
Three miles to go/ At the end of the road/ There's a soldier waiting for me
The aggrieved Swiss airmen were soon placated when...
*
It is unpleasant riding in the back of a pick-up truck at the best of times. When the roads are bad and the driver is bad, it's worse. Sat in two rows facing each other; the American alone in his cab.
The Pilot and the Commando sit face to face. Through some potholes, it becomes nose to nose. The masks are off now, yet sweat still curls their hair in the speeding wind.
There's one country cassette playing and it skips and skips and skips.
In the back, the tired men have noticed he's avoiding the towns.
The road is blocked by a jacknifed wagon. Fingers tighten their hold when they realise the American isn't slowing down. With a gruesome grinding of gears, the truck swerves around the truck and into a ditch. Near to forty-five degrees; The Pilot loses his grip and falls across the back of the truck. The Commando catches him in his substantial arms, lifts him back up. Stubble in the Pilot's ear - 'I've not forgotten'
The record skips with the Pilot's stomach and the pickup keeps speeding on.
In the shadows of leafless trees at speed, it all looks like a slideshow. The Scientist swallows the last of the dramamine. He'd hold his head in his hands if he didn't have to hold on hard. Oh fantastic he's slowing down what a relief - a lurching - this man doesn't slow down for just anything.
A rapping on the rear window - is he asking us to hide? How on earth are we supposed to -
A warning shot.
Bodies hit bodies in the back as he brakes. The Commando peers over the roof; he has his rifle but he's hiding it for now. There are a few figures in front of a green four by four. A man in sunglasses strides towards the vehicle.
'This is as far as you go, buddy'
The American gets out of the pickup truck - his hands are by his sides and he's got an easy smile - 'Hey, son, we're just trying to get through to Rome - I've got me some... VIPs to see the boss'.
'Not this way you don't; besides, you know the rules about burnin' fuel - you're gonna have to hand over your pickup, mister' - the Stranger brings the assault rifle from the crucifix position he was holding it in and slings it towards the truck.
'Now just hold on a second here guys' - the easy smile's still there but it's not so easy - 'just what outfit you with?'
'Vermont Air National Guard, buddy, and this is our truck'
The rest of the 'Guardsmen' are coming towards the team - there's camouflage clothing on a couple of them, but they're barely ready for the parade square. Perhaps most egregious is the gentleman dressed as if he's ready for a barfight - an armband reading 'VANG' serves as his token proof of membership.' His grenade launcher is definitely military, however.
'Gonna have to take your iron as well, fella - and these boys are with us now; can't be leaving foreign combatants in the hands of civilians.' There is a jarring change into an 'English' accent - 'Would you gentlemen care to come wit' us'. The Prospero team did not travel thousands of miles to get mock-curtseyed by a man in a tracksuit. The Commando jumps off the truck and lands on two feet, he's already got the Stranger in his sights. Dead calm but dead loud.
'You've got thirty seconds, cunt.'
The Stranger turns to his companions and laughs. While his back's turned, the American reaches for his belt.
Pop. Pop. Pop. One would have thought that six-shooter would have been louder. The rest of the team open up; it seems that though the 'Guardsmen' sure could swagger with those weapons, they had a harder time aiming them - it's over as quickly as it begins.
'National Guard my ass! C'mon boys, we've made quite a ruckus'
Driving in silence again, moving into dusk - suddenly sound.
'Thanks guys...you saved my hide out there...thankyou'
Is the American tearing up? They can't see and they've nothing really to say, but they're polite and reply and then we fall back into silence - except for crunching gears and that fucking cassette.
They're asleep when the truck stops - bleary eyed, they're led into lights which blind them and the smell and heat of a coal fire. This place is pristine - they've seen nothing like it since the war began; they look guiltily at their filthy boots and the damage they're doing. The American just looks and smiles. There's guards in front of big mahogany doors; now these men look like proper soldiers.
The doors swing open and there's a man in a clean suit, sitting at a tidy desk. His hair's perfect. He stands up and offers a warm grin.
'Now, Gentlemen, I reckon it's been a long trip, and I reckon y'all want some answers'.
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