More post-Soviet nations?

Strategos' Risk

For USSR buffs:

What other national movements had a likely chance of being realized after the fall of the Soviet Union? Were there any other countries that almost became real?
 

Marix

Russia is pretty safe from secessionist movement's, at this point Russia is more in danger of ultra-national/national Bolshevik movements. Most of the nationalist movements had existed for along time within SSR's, SO and Abkhazia for example.
 

Stateless

Chechnya's got the most potential for successful secession: it has the demographic composition (majority non-Russian), it has Russia's oil-refining capacity making it economically viable, it's on the periphery of Russia, and it has a history of existence outside Russia. The problem is getting it international recognition. None of the other regions in Russia have all these going for it: while Tatarstan and Bashkortostan made bids for independence, the fact that they were completely surrounded by Russia made them unlikely to be able to function without Russia's help.

Of course, OTL Gagauzia, Transnistria, Crime, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh were all (at least briefly) de facto independent. They could be recognised properly, that would boost the number of post-Soviet nations.

Nakhchivan wasn't too far from being de facto independent, they could go if differences between Aliyev and Mütallibov remain and Aliyev maintains his stranglehold over Nakhchivan.

Adjara was in a state of 'armed autonomy'; if Georgia had tried to end Adjara's autonomy during the civil war the Russians might have intervened, and they could have followed Abkhazia and South Ossetia out.

Perhaps Talysh-Mugan could go indpendent from Azerbaijan. OTL they only tried for autonomy, but assuming a longer, more violent Armenian-Azeri War, they could possibly have a chance. But this is a long shot.
 
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Dan1988

Dan1988

IIRC both Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have very strong pro-secessionist movements, but the problem is that both are completely surrounded by Russia proper. Maybe if Bashkortostan found a way to get a border area, i.e. Cheljabinsk oblastj.
 

Stateless

Dan1988 said:
IIRC both Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have very strong pro-secessionist movements, but the problem is that both are completely surrounded by Russia proper. Maybe if Bashkortostan found a way to get a border area, i.e. Cheljabinsk oblastj.
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But then you've added 3 million Russians to Bashkortostan's population, which only has 850,000 Baskhirs.
 

Strategos' Risk

I'm not talking about modern day secession. I'm talking about in 1991, as nations such as Belarus or Moldova or Kazakhstan were being formed out of the ashes of the Soviet Union, what other regions could have joined them? Why didn't those other regions do so and become countries? Why did Georgia make it and not the ones mentioned in stateless_englishman's post?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Strategos' Risk said:
I'm not talking about modern day secession. I'm talking about in 1991, as nations such as Belarus or Moldova or Kazakhstan were being formed out of the ashes of the Soviet Union, what other regions could have joined them? Why didn't those other regions do so and become countries? Why did Georgia make it and not the ones mentioned in stateless_englishman's post?
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Because the one which left were SSRs, while the one which didn't become independent was ASSRs. So you need to go back to earlier times and make them full SSRs. I think a few has the chance Karelia, some of the North Caucasusian ASSRs and the Volga German ASSR (if it hadn't been disolved in 1941 or it had been reestablished) could have been made into SSRs, but the enclaves in general couldn't simply because the Communists prefered a at the very least a sliver of legitimacy.
 

RGB

Dan1988 said:
IIRC both Tatarstan and Bashkortostan have very strong pro-secessionist movements, but the problem is that both are completely surrounded by Russia proper. Maybe if Bashkortostan found a way to get a border area, i.e. Cheljabinsk oblastj.
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Very strong in the sense that they're probably publishing something nationalistic in London, as is usual in such cases, and editing wikipedia to reinforce the appearance.

Re:Chechnya's demographics. At the end of the USSR, a quarter of the population was Russian and more if you count other non-Chechens. It's quite monocultural now, of course.
 

Stateless

RGB said:
Very strong in the sense that they're probably publishing something nationalistic in London, as is usual in such cases, and editing wikipedia to reinforce the appearance.
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This would be the same Tatarstan and Bashkortostan that declared independence in 1992, right?
 

RGB

stateless_englishman said:
This would be the same Tatarstan and Bashkortostan that declared independence in 1992, right?
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The very same.

There was a very real chance that Tatarstan could have had "soft" independence within something like an SNG (CIS) federation, as intended, which they were aiming for, but since that failed, it went nowhere fast. Most importantly Tatarstan as a non-RF associated entity had rather minimal support among the non-Tatars and no means to enforce independence. In the end a pretty workable treaty was made, but they could have claimed more independence if there was a wider Confederation to enter into.

Change that and we can talk about not only Tatarstan but also other possibilities. If we're talking about today, no. In 1990, maybe. Come to think of it, Chechnya not doing what it did could have potential to end up like Tatarstan. It could have been a good model but wasn't widely employed.
 
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Urban fox

Dan1988 said:
Well then, how would you solve the problem of Tatarstan and Bashkortostan being completely surrounded by Russia?
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You dont it isnt a ''problem'' those areas will remain part of Russia, as is right and proper. Hell even ''Tartarstan'' is 50% Russian with a lot mixing between the two groups. The only way it splitsoff is if ''Russia'' no longer exists as a state at all.:rolleyes:

As for Chechnya it ethnically cleansed it's Russian population and the criminal gang running that ‘’country’’ made Yeltsin look like a paragion by comparison. During the 90’s Chechen militias were launching slaver-raids into nearby regions, and the place was basically a RL Ronapour.

The Russian invasion was brutal is mismanaged but was definitely justified at the time. So there is no way Chechnya can become independent without radical changes to it’s leadership and a drastic crack-down on criminal elements.
 

Stateless

Following the First Chechen War Chechnya was de facto independent, and the Khasavyurt Accord amounted to Russia recognising their independence. If they don't launch an invasion of Daghestan in 1999 they can keep this up until 2001 at least.
 
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