Don Juan of Aragon

[Deleted member 5909]

What would be the affects of the Prince of Asturias, Don Juan de Aragon, surviving his parents to reign in the Spanish kingdoms, and continuing the Trastamara dynasty there? This question surprisingly hasn't been asked before to my (fallible) knowledge...

Obviously, we'd see the Habsburgs confined to Germany and the Low Countries as an Imperial power (especially if the Battle of Mohacs ends up being butterflied away).

But what else would be likely to occur? If Queen Isabel dies in 1504, as in OTL, how will the relations between King Fernando V and his son be likely to play out? Would the Trastamaras continue to pursue an anti-French policy under King Juan, or would they turn against the Habsburgs at some point, considering their ambitions in Italy (remember, there is a long tradition of a Franco-Castilian alliance, in contrast to the Aragonese rivalry with the Valois). Also, would the Spanish economy be stronger without pourings its resources into the Netherlands in the sixteenth century, as in OTL?

What can we expect from the reign of King Juan III?

Just curious...

 

[Janprimus]

What would be the affects of the Prince of Asturias, Don Juan de Aragon, surviving his parents to reign in the Spanish kingdoms, and continuing the Trastamara dynasty there? This question surprisingly hasn't been asked before to my (fallible) knowledge...

Obviously, we'd see the Habsburgs confined to Germany and the Low Countries as an Imperial power (especially if the Battle of Mohacs ends up being butterflied away).

But what else would be likely to occur? If Queen Isabel dies in 1504, as in OTL, how will the relations between King Fernando V and his son be likely to play out? Would the Trastamaras continue to pursue an anti-French policy under King Juan, or would they turn against the Habsburgs at some point, considering their ambitions in Italy (remember, there is a long tradition of a Franco-Castilian alliance, in contrast to the Aragonese rivalry with the Valois). Also, would the Spanish economy be stronger without pourings its resources into the Netherlands in the sixteenth century, as in OTL?

What can we expect from the reign of King Juan III?

Regarding the alliances and don't think this would change, although it will be harder to keep these countries together. But as long as France claims Napels, the duchy of Milan, which is a part of the Holy Roman Empire, and the Habsburgs and France still have their issues regarding the Burgundian inheritance; 'Spain' and the Habsburg are usefull allies for eachother, since France is their common 'rival'.

Just curious...

Interesting, but the Netherlands were one of the wealthiest regions of Europe. The thing that costed money was the army the Sovereign Lords of the Netherlands, who also were king of 'Spain', needed to fight the rebellion. Before things got out of hand (1568, start open rebellion), partly due to the way how Phillip II ruled the Netherlands; he never had the same feeling with this region and the same respect as his father Charles V. (Charles V was born in Ghent in the Habsburg Netherlands.)
Anyway certainly before this conflict, they actually earned money from the Netherlands.

I actually have found some figures about tax income during the reign of Charles V. (In 1000 Castilian ducates)
The Habsburg (Burgundian) Netherlands gave 20,974 subsidies, which was 7.2 per capita (A total population of 2.9 million). In contrast Castille gave 9,300, which was 1.6 per capita (A total population of 5.9 million); and Napels gave 5,700, which was 2.7 per capita (A total population of 2.1 million).

(Figures are from a book about Charles V by (professor) W. Blockmans (Title in Dutch: Karel V, keizer van een wereldrijk 1500-1558 (Charles V, emperor of a (global) empire 1500-1558 )

Regarding the alliances, IMHO they probably won't change much in the short run. France claimed the kingdom of Naples (ruled by Aragon), the duchy of Milan (a part of the Holy Roman empire) and the Habsburgs and France still had their differences, because of the Burgundian inheritance. As long as these issues remain, 'Spain' and the Habsburgs will remain allies (and remember they still have their double marriage; Juan was married to archduchess Margaret of Austria, and Phillip the Fair was married to Joanna 'the Mad'), because they have a common rival in France. However since this alliance ITTL has more members (more rulers) it will be harder to keep them all in line.

 

[Gonzaga]

But what else would be likely to occur? If Queen Isabel dies in 1504, as in OTL, how will the relations between King Fernando V and his son be likely to play out? Would the Trastamaras continue to pursue an anti-French policy under King Juan, or would they turn against the Habsburgs at some point, considering their ambitions in Italy (remember, there is a long tradition of a Franco-Castilian alliance, in contrast to the Aragonese rivalry with the Valois). Also, would the Spanish economy be stronger without pourings its resources into the Netherlands in the sixteenth century, as in OTL?

France would probably still be the main enemy of an independent Aragon, after all they had claims on Naples too, and the Trastamaras would dependent on Castilian and Imperial troops to fight the French.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Hmm.... I could have sworn this had been discussed before, but a search shows that the 2 TLs I thought might have been it weren't.

The question WAS raised twice, but once had no reply, and once had only one fairly superficial reply.

I suspect that no Spanish Hapsburgs would be huge.... Don't know enough to say more, but I wouldn't mind seeing more discussion.

 

[Yorel]

Don Juan's survival would probably still lead to the unification of Spain. He would first become King Juan III of Castille after his mother's death in 1504 and would become also king of Aragon after his father dies.

This also means that Charles V will have a smaller empire than he had OTL and will not have the New World for him alone as he won't inherit Spain unless Juan dies childless. He will thus be weaker than OTL, although he will probably still be one of the major powers in Europe. After all, he still has both the Netherlands and the Austrian Archduchy.
However, a weaker Charles V will probably have greater problem with his arch-rival, King Francis I of France. Both of them were in competition for the crown of the Holy Roman Empire. Charles V won because he gave more gold to the electors than Francis I, but here he won't have the gold of the new world, unless Juan lends him some. He might still win the election, but he will still have a harder time against Francis I.

 

[Mikestone8]

I suspect that no Spanish Hapsburgs would be huge.... Don't know enough to say more, but I wouldn't mind seeing more discussion.

One point. Not only is Charles V not King of Spain, but once Juan III has children, he's not even heir to the throne.

In that situation, once the Reformation gets into full swing, is there any mileage in remaining Catholic? OTL, the Habsburgs were virtually the only major German dynasty that did so. Even the Wittelbachs split about 50/50. Could we see Germany become like the Scandinavian kingdoms, a totally Protestant country with Catholics reduced to a powerless minority?

 

[Valdemar II]

One point. Not only is Charles V not King of Spain, but once Juan III has children, he's not even heir to the throne.

In that situation, once the Reformation gets into full swing, is there any mileage in remaining Catholic? OTL, the Habsburgs were virtually the only major German dynasty that did so. Even the Wittelbachs split about 50/50. Could we see Germany become like the Scandinavian kingdoms, a totally Protestant country with Catholics reduced to a powerless minority?

Powerless minority? I beg you pardon, we didn't allow any Catholics at all, with the exception of a few mercenaries and foreign officials. But yes I agree with you, I even doubt the Bavarian Wittelsbach would stay Catholic, if they're reduced to a religeous enclave.

 

[Gonzaga]

Everybody is talking about Charles V, but if the Habsburgs aren't living in Spain the odds are that Philip the Handsome probably wouldn't get the fever that killed him in Burgos, and he would become Emperor after his father's death rather than his son.

 

[Petete123123]

And what is Spain going to do with all their gold? Maybe conquer Portugal?

 

[Gonzaga]

And what is Spain going to do with all their gold? Maybe conquer Portugal?

Well, maybe they would try to expand into North Africa?

 

[Niko Malaka]

And what is Spain going to do with all their gold? Maybe conquer Portugal?

Well, sorry for the nit-picking, but it would be mainly silver. But at the time of the POD the arrival of precious metals from the Americas was still small, specially compared with the boom in the second half of the century. Anyway, Yorel's point is still valid, Charles V, or Philipp the Handsome as Gonzaga points, would have less money to bribe electors without the extraordinary subsides Charles obtained in OTL from Castile in the Cortes of La Coruña. But I don't know if Philip had a better relationships net or other resources his son lacked in order to win the election.

On the other hand, your question is interesting. Without an Habsburg in the spanish throne and, furthermore, without the spanish throne tied to the imperial throne, spanish involvement in the imperial affairs is less likely and doubtless if we see still some involvement it would be a lot smaller than in OTL. What will happen with the american revenues depends, I suppose, on how Juan III and his successors decide to aim their politic and specially in whom will they search their main support, the nobility or the cities. But let's asume the castilian cities will play a bigger role in TTL, specially because we are butterflying the Comuneros revolt, so the urban political movement and the privileges of the Comunidades de Villa y Tierra, the urban autonomous entities in Castile, are not destroyed.
With the arrival of capitals from the New World which will stay in the kingdom instead of flying to the hands of the flemish and italian moneylenders, plus a stronger urban elite we could see a further commercial and productive development and a larger bourgeoisie in Castile. Furthermore, one of the comunero's reclamations was to stop the favourable terms of exportation of wool towards the Netherlands and the importation of clothes made with that same whool which were destroying the castilian textile production. Without personal union with the Netherlands, there is less external political pressure to keep this commerical relation. On the other hand this could tigger an internal conflict not too different to OTL, because the nobility and the basque/cantabric territories had interests in this situation. They produced and exported, respectively, the wool sent to the Netherlands. Also, perhaps we could expect less militant catholicism, due to the lessened involvement in the Religion Wars and a larger bourgeoisie which probably wouldn't see Protestantism with antipathy. Perhaps we could see even some stable penetration of Protestantism in Spain, specially if the Reformation is more successful in the Empire, as other posters have proposed.
Also, I suppose that in this scenario the crisis of prices hits harder in Castile.

On the other hand, if the castilian urban elites are smashed for some reason as in OTL, I couldn't say what would happen with all this precious metal. Perhaps a really big lot of sumptuary expenses which, besides the crisis of prices without development, could have really disastrous effects in the commoner's conditions of life in the mid-term.

 

[Mikestone8]

Could be bad news for Elizabethan England.

With fewer European commitments (pretty much confined to Italy) Spain can concentrate more on defending its American possessions. Could be Drake et al come to sticky ends rather quickly. Even OTL the tide was turning against them by the mid 1590s. If Spain can afford to maintain bases in the Carolinas and on the Chesapeake, do English colonies ever get established at all?

 

[plantagenet]

If Philip becomes emperor instead of Charles and the Habsburg family stays anchored in Antwerp or wherever, or at least maintains a strong presence in the area, do they become more French like Charles was before he moved to Spain, or does the administration of the Netherlands gradually take on a more "German" character?

If the former, could this eventually lead to disaffection in the Habsburg heartland, perhaps even resulting in a Richard II/Henry Bolingbroke-style civil war?

If the latter, assuming the Habsburgs are anywhere near as long-lasting as OTL, could this result in the Netherlands being subject to the spread of Hochdeutsch in coming centuries? Perhaps when a "German" national identity is formulated, Flemings, Brabanters, Frisians and the rest will be considered as German as Saxons, Thuringians, Wurttembergers and their ilk.

 

[Deleted member 5909]

I think that ITTL Philip, if he survives (and there is reasonable argument that he does indeed), will probably become emperor. After Maximilian is elevated to the title of "elected Emperor of the Romans" by papal bull in 1508, he'll likely concentrate on securing the hold of the Habsburgs over the imperial title and invest a great deal of his resources into getting Philip elected King of the Romans in his lifetime. Maximilian has Burgundian wealth at his disposal (at least in part), a great deal of remaining influence in imperial affairs and longstanding relations with the powerful Fugger banking family, who'll probably loan him the proper amount for bribes in the end.