TL-191: After the End

[Michael B]

The fourth arm of the nuclear deterrent would be space based nuclear missiles, these you can launch from orbit to the ground, and unlike a strategic bomber, these can stay up indefinitely,

The doctrine of mutually assured destruction would work better with missiles in space. If one side has missiles in space, the other side will want them too, neither side will at any given time know exactly where all their enemy's nuclear assets in space are at any given time, so if one nuclear explosion destroys Washinton or Berlin, then as sure as the sun rising the next day, another nuclear explosion will destroy Tokyo, the enemy knowing this will therefore not try it.

Thank you for a very eloquent case for a space based nuclear deterrent. The only weakness that I can see is one of maintenance. It is much easier for the crews to crawl round a silo or hanger or have the missiles taken out of a docked submarine than check over a weapons system whilst working in a space suit. There is also the cost of sending the crews, and that assumes that some form of reusable ship is used.

Still, not withstanding that, no Servant of the Emperor is going to bet that if he drops a sunbomb on Washington or Berlin that the space based missiles will all fail to work and Tokyo won't go up in smoke too.

 

[Faeelin]

You can scoff at the notion if you like, but that's about the same as someone in a Soviet dominated world scoffing at the notion of Capitalism ever working. We don't really know what would have happened if there was no space treaty as we don't live in that history, we don't test it out because the space treaty is in effect acting as a deterrent to space mining.

Oh, come now. The treaty is hardly the main deterrent to space mining. Or even a significant one. The far larger one is that it turns out resources are cheaper to extract on Earth, which turns out to be habitable and have about a planet's worth of resources.

 

[Faeelin]

Would you want to live next to a ground based missile silo?

I live in NYC. I don't think it'll be a major differene.

you don't have to worry about whether the missiles will climb out of their silos before thge enemy can destroy them, and its a lot easier to send things from orbit to ground than from ground to suborbit to ground.

This seems a waste of time. If you have RADAR, you can launch the missiles when the enemy has, as was SOP during the Cold War. Or from submarines.

 

[B_Munro]

Space is a big place after all, they can't track everywhere!
You can put nuclear missiles in elliptical orbits around Earth, for example, such that their farthest point from Earth can't be tracked by your advesary, it would a simple thing to change the orbits of these missiles while they are far out in their orbits, so the enemy can't predict which orbit they'll be inbound on. (All the more reason to develop ostensibly rockets that can reach the Moon like the Saturn V) In OTU, in theory such a rocket could release a cluster of nuclear missiles all at once in an extremely elliptical orbit that goes out further than the Moon. Once in space these rockets can maneuver and only tiny orbital thrusts can radically alter their incoming path towards Earth, or even hit the Earth if so desired! I know pretty well that no radar could detect these tiny objects in 1964, that are further out than the Moon. The rocket thrusters of these missiles would likewise be small. Not much thrust is required and only a tiny puff of the maneuvering jets can target any point on the Earth that is desired, they would take days to hit their targets of course, falling in from such a high point, it doesn't matter if one side completely destroyed the other with nuclear weapons, the warheads would still be coming in from far orbit to destroy the victorious nation. You see mutual destruction is actually assured, that is the point of a nuclear deterrent after all.

And MAD was in place OTL from the late 60's onward: only right-wing lunatics thought the USSR was going to be able to deliver a first strike "sometime soon." Nukes! In! Space! would add nothing to that save an extra destablizing and fear-creating element. If they were out somewhere we couldn't see them, it would make aforementioned crazies even more paranoid (and a Star Wars program would make rather more sense if you had whole _days_ to target and eliminate a missile, rather just minutes).

Not to mention that the maintenance problem gets rather worse when the satellite is most of the time in too high an orbit to reach. If you add in the fact that it _automatically_ modifies its orbit at intervals, the potential for disaster...well. Haven't you seen 'Space Cowboys'?

Bruce

 

[area11]

also if your nuclear missiles are in space wouldn't be easier for rouge states to get them

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Thank you for a very eloquent case for a space based nuclear deterrent. The only weakness that I can see is one of maintenance. It is much easier for the crews to crawl round a silo or hanger or have the missiles taken out of a docked submarine than check over a weapons system whilst working in a space suit. There is also the cost of sending the crews, and that assumes that some form of reusable ship is used.

Ah, but that's what Von Braun's Lunetta space station is for, to house the crews that service the missiles! Von Braun long understood that the best way to get things done is to get the military to pay for it. What Von Braun was really after was to find an excuse to get his space station built, and this is a good one, later on Von Braun would use this space station as a base to construct and launch manned interplanetary vehicles from, getting involved with the military is simply the price of doing business.

Still, not withstanding that, no Servant of the Emperor is going to bet that if he drops a sunbomb on Washington or Berlin that the space based missiles will all fail to work and Tokyo won't go up in smoke too.

 

[Faeelin]

Ah, but that's what Von Braun's Lunetta space station is for, to house the crews that service the missiles! Von Braun long understood that the best way to get things done is to get the military to pay for it. What Von Braun was really after was to find an excuse to get his space station built, and this is a good one, later on Von Braun would use this space station as a base to construct and launch manned interplanetary vehicles from, getting involved with the military is simply the price of doing business.

Gather round while I sing you of Wernher von Braun
A man whose allegiance is ruled by expedience
Call him a Nazi, he won't even frown
"Ha, Nazi schmazi," says Wernher von Braun

Don't say that he's hypocritical
Say rather that he's apolitical
"Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down
That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun

Some have harsh words for this man of renown
But some think our attitude should be one of gratitude
Like the widows and cripples in old London town
Who owe their large pensions to Wernher von Braun

You too may be a big hero
Once you've learned to count backwards to zero
"In German oder English I know how to count down
Und I'm learning Chinese," says Wernher von Braun

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Gather round while I sing you of Wernher von Braun
A man whose allegiance is ruled by expedience
Call him a Nazi, he won't even frown
"Ha, Nazi schmazi," says Wernher von Braun

Don't say that he's hypocritical
Say rather that he's apolitical
"Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down
That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun

Some have harsh words for this man of renown
But some think our attitude should be one of gratitude
Like the widows and cripples in old London town
Who owe their large pensions to Wernher von Braun

You too may be a big hero
Once you've learned to count backwards to zero
"In German oder English I know how to count down
Und I'm learning Chinese," says Wernher von Braun

Yep, he'll work for the Kaisar too, never said anything different.
Nice poem by the way.

One thing a timeline's got to be is interesting, so why not let the Germans cause a little trouble and get in people's faces? In this timeline the Germans have not learned their lesson, they are abrasive, they are in your face, they are loud obnoxious and full of themselves. Now I don't mean to impugn any real Germans in OTU, but the Germans of this timeline have pushed and shoved and largely gotten their way, so they'll figure on keeping on doing this. Von Braun is largely a German Patriot, he has no reason not to be, the Germans have commited no Holocaust in this timeline, and they look down their noses at the ex-Confederates, and its easy for them to see all the bad things they have done. Probably Von Braun even took a tour of one of the extermination camps in Texas decrying the inhumanity of it all, probably stopped off at the White House for a photo op with the President and then flew back to Berlin.

The Germans of this timeline are a bit trunculant, they are proud to be German, and they think they are the best things on Earth. Von Braun is full of ambition for his country, he envisions German colonies on the Moon and Mars all accomplished through his rockets. Von Braun is very much the opposite of what Albert Einstein was. Eistein was likely a Socialist Pacifist, the only reason he supported the Great War II effort was because he thought Jake Featherston was evil and had to be defeated, now that the war is over he's gone back to his Socialist Pacifism and is probably very much against what Von Braun is doing, he's also against trunculant German Nationalism, and very much for a World Government, but no one here is listening to an Absent-minded professor type that he represents.

Von Braun is the opposite of Einstein in many ways, he's "smart as a tack", but not an absent-minded theoritician, he'd tell you he's an engineer, not a "rocket scientist", and he's very much an "organization man" who gets along very well with the military, and calls many of the generals his friends, he's also on friendly terms with the test pilots, who's job it is to prove his machines. Von Braun in this timeline fills the role of "Mad Scientist" or possibly a "Jame Bond villain"

I wonder if James Bond films would be made in this timeline, 007 would certainly have a lot of things to do, and a German "rocket scientist" with overarching ambitions which in and of themselves are rather admirable, but his ruthlessness in pursuit of his goals is what would put a "James Bond" in conflict with him.

I wonder if someone would be interested in writing a James Bond story set in this timeline, maybe have him visit Von Braun's rocket works. Seems to me it would be an intersting story. Maybe I'll open up a thread on this.

 

[Euroman26]

Come year 2004, 60 years after the second great war. Where would TL191 world be?
Would Germany still be the strongest power on Earth? and have Europe in a Stranglehold?
Will Canada have gained home rule?
Will Japan still dominate Asia?

What about the Arab oil? Cause in OTL America needs a lot of oil.

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Come year 2004, 60 years after the second great war. Where would TL191 world be?
Would Germany still be the strongest power on Earth? and have Europe in a Stranglehold?
Will Canada have gained home rule?
Will Japan still dominate Asia?

What about the Arab oil? Cause in OTL America needs a lot of oil.

Depends on how long the post Great War order lasts, after a time the situation ceases to be an after effect of the second great war and becomes a result of subsequent random events.

 

[Euroman26]

Depends on how long the post Great War order lasts, after a time the situation ceases to be an after effect of the second great war and becomes a result of subsequent random events.

So in Your opinion Tom would the German Empire in Europe break down eventually?

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

So in Your opinion Tom would the German Empire in Europe break down eventually?

Most likely, European monarchies were in decline anyway, they either become constitutional monarchies with figurehead monarchs or they cease being a monarchy all together. Most Europeans would chafe under German rule anyway, even if the Germans didn't do anything bad to them. Most importantly if the German rulers keep on pushing their luck and rolling the dice, its only a matter of time before they lose because of the law of averages. One of the reasons Hitler lost was that he failed to conquer the World, and having fallen short of that, he pushed his luck too far and lost. Some rulers get a gambling addiction arising from too many victories, Alexander the Great had that disease, and his troops rebelled under him because they thought he was pushing his luck too far and the fact that they were exhausted as well.

The United States basically has recovered what was its own and then some - Canada being basically a lot of empty territory doesn't count for much populationwise, it got a few Mexican states as part of the deal from conquering the CSA, but Germany more than doubled its territory from the two Great Wars, the Kaisar might decide its time to try again. I sure those German Kings would have developed some bad habits toward their neighbors as a result of their success. Anyway we want an interesting timeline, and a realistic timeline usually includes some troublemakers to make life interesting. Basically what we need for dramatic purposes are a few bad actors, if everyone gets along, that's not real interesting or realistic, history always has its bad actors for every era, so we have to think creatively about what can go wrong and how countries will react to that.
Murphy's Law by another name.

 

[Euroman26]

So is it possible to imagine the US and Germany going to war in the 2020s or 2030s? Maybe ending with the US Conquering Western Europe in the early 2040s?

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

So is it possible to imagine the US and Germany going to war in the 2020s or 2030s? Maybe ending with the US Conquering Western Europe in the early 2040s?

No, I don't think we can simply forget there are such things as nuclear weapons and act as if we were Napoleon or Alexander the Great. More peaceful associations such as the EU may form and third world countries may plot revolution and seek to conquer each other, but I think outright wars of conquest by major powers against other major powers armed with nuclear weapons are out of the question. What the Kaisar wants to accomplish with space based nukes may be more on the order of nuclear blackmail rather than outright conqest of the days of yore. Nuclear weapons make conventional full scale total war a global disaster on the order of an asteroid impact, the damaging effects would exceed the value of the territorial gains that can hope to be accomplished through it.

Von Braun has a dream of conquering space though, and is willing to partner with whoever to get his dreams accomplished. In OTU, once he realized that the Third Reich was not going to be a going concern anymore, he happily went to work for the Americans, Von Braun was a realist if nothing else.

 

[David bar Elias]

Come year 2004, 60 years after the second great war. Where would TL191 world be?
Would Germany still be the strongest power on Earth? and have Europe in a Stranglehold?

Yes, Germany (and Austria-Hungary) will still be among Europe's strongest single powers.

Will Canada have gained home rule?

By 1964, in TTL, all of the former Canadian provinces are either states or civilian ruled territories.

Will Japan still dominate Asia?

No.

What about the Arab oil? Cause in OTL America needs a lot of oil.

Yes, the USA will still be buying petrol from the Mid-East. But there will not be anything resembling OTL's embargo.

So is it possible to imagine the US and Germany going to war in the 2020s or 2030s? Maybe ending with the US Conquering Western Europe in the early 2040s?

That won't be happening.

 

[Euroman26]

Yes, Germany (and Austria-Hungary) will still be among Europe's strongest single powers.

Will that be healthy in the long hold?

What about Liberals in Germany?

 

[David bar Elias]

Will that be healthy in the long hold?

I can't think of anything that will signify it being unhealthy.

What about Liberals in Germany?

Germany, as of 1964 has (and will continue to have) a strong and influential Social Democratic Party.

 

[Constantinople]

What happened to Virginia? On the maps it looks like West Virginia and Virginia have become one state. Has all of Virginia been annexed to West Virginia? Greater West Virginia?

 

[David bar Elias]

What happened to Virginia? On the maps it looks like West Virginia and Virginia have become one state. Has all of Virginia been annexed to West Virginia? Greater West Virginia?

Virginia was readmitted to the Union (as a separate state) in TTL, in 1963. It has kept its pre-Second Great War boundaries.

 

[New Yorker]

If the US is going to permanently annex the CS (and it looks like they did) how will they handle the reintegration? How would they deal with convincing the Confederates that being citizens of the US was good and desirable? How would they eliminiate nationalist feeling in the old Confederacy? From the books it looks like the US was employing draconian measures. They cannot keep that up forever.