TL-191: After the End
- Thread starter David bar Elias
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Hnau
Banned
I did some number crunching for the LDS Church. With uprisings, occupations and repression of Mormons in Utah happening four times instead of one time, and continuing polygamy, by 1950 there will be 300,000 LDS, instead of 1,100,000. Lower conversion rates, smaller families, people killed, jailed, etc. etc. So moving them all to the Sandwich Islands might not be that difficult after all, though its still a lot of people.
That's the thing. There's a pretty wide gap to fill (I don't even know that much about OTL's culture to make more than guesses myself).
I could try to help on this front when I get some time. Knowing Turtledove, he wouldn't make it too different from OTL. Example: Bob Dylan could still become a famous folk singer. I'll try to add more when I get some time.
Much obliged!
One of the things that I'm attempting to do with TTL is to slowly move away from the Turtledove non-Butterfly effect, especially as it retains to individuals. But I'm sure we can add in a thing or two about notable analogues.
I've also developed a couple of ideas, now that I've thought about it a little more, about popular culture in TTL's America. Though R&R as we know it (among other things) doesn't exist, other forms of music, such as folk, are much more prevalent than IOTL. Songs about the SGW, critiques of the sort of racism and militarism that consumed Featherston's CSA, ect. are quite common in the years after the conflict ended. People akin to Pete Seeger or Alan Lomax are quite popular stretching into the early sixties.
Another important source of American music in TTL in the coming decades will be the country's extensive immigrant communities (from the West Indies territories, from Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe, from China, Mexico, ect.), though what kinds of songs will be popular or not remains to be seen.
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Very interesting! Mind I ask how you got the numbers, just interested cuz I want to figure out myself the numbers of all those killed in the Second Great War, both in Europe and North America...
Hnau
Banned
Hah, well, that'll definitely require different skills and procedures than what I used to arrive at a good figure for the LDS population. What I did was take historical membership growth rates from Wikipedia (the statistics are based on legitimate sources), and then, every year there was an uprising, rebellion and so forth, I gave them a population contraction rate similiar to that of the year 1857, the worst year of the Utah War. 1858 of that conflict also saw fighting, but it petered out, and there was a time of no growth at all as the Church entered an era of reconstruction and occupation.
So, in 1881 during the Mexican War, the Church contracts like in 1857, and in 1882, the Church's numbers remain mostly static as in 1858. In 1915 it contracts a little more severely than in 1857, and grows even less in 1916 and 1917, to account for a more harsh immediate occupation. However, 1941-1943 sees membership flight every year similiar to 1857, and another two years of no-growth afterwards. This brings the 1950 LDS membership to about 400,000. Now, the continuation of polygamy is likely to cause some changes with conversion rate and so forth, but, looking at growth patterns, the LDS Church didn't really change its growth rates all that much after giving up polygamy. Maybe since the Church is made illegal and its leaders are executed that would effect its growth as well, but in the 1880s when the LDS Church was basically made illegal in OTL, and its leaders were imprisoned for polygamy, growth rates didn't change too much either.
If I took the extreme course of action and halve growth rates from the end of the Mexican War and the involved Mormon rebellion and subsequent occupation by US forces, then there's less than 200,000 Latter-day Saints in the entire world, and I feel in my gut that's too small for the kind of things that were happening in the books. So I took the average of the two and the figure came out to 300,000... basically after the Mexican War, growth rates are a quarter less, and there is growth contaction and static growth rates when rebellion and immediate post-rebellion occupation occurs. Actually, now that I recalculate such growth rates, instead of just directly averaging the two sums, it comes out to an LDS population of about 250,000... so...
If the LDS do begin to slowly shed their poor reputation by the end of the 1970s, as stated in the alternate timeline at least in the US, then its very likely they could break 1.5 million by 2010, maybe 2 million. However, I wonder if they'll ever give up polygamy and give the priesthood to blacks. With so much more radicalization, they might not. In any case, Hawaii and the Pacific is likely to become very affected by the LDS Church. We've been in Hawaii since the 1850s and its one of our stronger areas... with the increase of a large Latter-day Saint population there, it could very well become the principal religion of the state and for that matter Polynesia.
Consider that in OTL 1950, the whereabouts of the membership of the LDS Church were Utah 50%, the rest of the United States and Canada 40%, and outside of the USA and Canada 10%. That composition could have changed considerably with so many disturbances in Utah, pushing Latter-day Saints out of the state, out of the country, for example, but also getting rid of Utah missionaries which are the principal force of growth outside of Utah and North America. I don't know where it'd all balance out to. But let's just say that half of the remaining 250,000 LDS members are in Utah. In Operation Eagle Claw, some 121,000 LDS members are moved to the Sandwich Isles. They join some 9,000 native Hawaiian LDS members (well, in OTL there would have been more than 35,000 but...). 4,000 "secret Mormons" remain in Utah. Now, Hawaii has 130,000 Latter-day Saints out of a 1950 population of (with new relocated LDS included) about 620,000. That means more than 20% of the Sandwich Islands are now Latter-day Saint. Hawaii was only 5% Latter-day Saint as of 2007. Big changes for Hawaii.
Until the 1930s in OTL, when the LDS population began to reach three-quarters of a million, the Church leadership advocated immigration to Utah and the "Mormon Corridor" in order to bolster the Church. Now, in TL-191, that kind of quota will only be met in the 1980s. Until then, from the late 1940s on, the leadership of the Church will likely encourage immigration to Hawaii and Polynesia, though that might not matter to the US government. In any case, we might assume until the 1980s demographics similiar to the rest of the history of the Church, only with Hawaii/Polynesia and Utah/Southwest USA swapped. 50% of the LDS membership in Hawaii/Polynesia, 40% of the LDS in North America, 10% elsewhere.
So by 1980, when the LDS Church is about to break 600,000, Hawaii could have 270,000 members (90% of the LDS pop. in Polynesia). And +260,000 people. 22% of the pop. is LDS and the percentage is increasing. Just under the percentage of Idaho in OTL. By 2010, assuming peace and little shift in demographic trends, there could be 1.5 million LDS around the globe, with 30% of them in Polynesia, a membership of 400,000 living on the Sandwich Isles out of a total of 1,670,000, about 24% of the population.
You definitely want to account for this divergence of Hawaii and Polynesia. Politically, economically, socially, it would be pretty important.
So, in 1881 during the Mexican War, the Church contracts like in 1857, and in 1882, the Church's numbers remain mostly static as in 1858. In 1915 it contracts a little more severely than in 1857, and grows even less in 1916 and 1917, to account for a more harsh immediate occupation. However, 1941-1943 sees membership flight every year similiar to 1857, and another two years of no-growth afterwards. This brings the 1950 LDS membership to about 400,000. Now, the continuation of polygamy is likely to cause some changes with conversion rate and so forth, but, looking at growth patterns, the LDS Church didn't really change its growth rates all that much after giving up polygamy. Maybe since the Church is made illegal and its leaders are executed that would effect its growth as well, but in the 1880s when the LDS Church was basically made illegal in OTL, and its leaders were imprisoned for polygamy, growth rates didn't change too much either.
If I took the extreme course of action and halve growth rates from the end of the Mexican War and the involved Mormon rebellion and subsequent occupation by US forces, then there's less than 200,000 Latter-day Saints in the entire world, and I feel in my gut that's too small for the kind of things that were happening in the books. So I took the average of the two and the figure came out to 300,000... basically after the Mexican War, growth rates are a quarter less, and there is growth contaction and static growth rates when rebellion and immediate post-rebellion occupation occurs. Actually, now that I recalculate such growth rates, instead of just directly averaging the two sums, it comes out to an LDS population of about 250,000... so...
If the LDS do begin to slowly shed their poor reputation by the end of the 1970s, as stated in the alternate timeline at least in the US, then its very likely they could break 1.5 million by 2010, maybe 2 million. However, I wonder if they'll ever give up polygamy and give the priesthood to blacks. With so much more radicalization, they might not. In any case, Hawaii and the Pacific is likely to become very affected by the LDS Church. We've been in Hawaii since the 1850s and its one of our stronger areas... with the increase of a large Latter-day Saint population there, it could very well become the principal religion of the state and for that matter Polynesia.
Consider that in OTL 1950, the whereabouts of the membership of the LDS Church were Utah 50%, the rest of the United States and Canada 40%, and outside of the USA and Canada 10%. That composition could have changed considerably with so many disturbances in Utah, pushing Latter-day Saints out of the state, out of the country, for example, but also getting rid of Utah missionaries which are the principal force of growth outside of Utah and North America. I don't know where it'd all balance out to. But let's just say that half of the remaining 250,000 LDS members are in Utah. In Operation Eagle Claw, some 121,000 LDS members are moved to the Sandwich Isles. They join some 9,000 native Hawaiian LDS members (well, in OTL there would have been more than 35,000 but...). 4,000 "secret Mormons" remain in Utah. Now, Hawaii has 130,000 Latter-day Saints out of a 1950 population of (with new relocated LDS included) about 620,000. That means more than 20% of the Sandwich Islands are now Latter-day Saint. Hawaii was only 5% Latter-day Saint as of 2007. Big changes for Hawaii.
Until the 1930s in OTL, when the LDS population began to reach three-quarters of a million, the Church leadership advocated immigration to Utah and the "Mormon Corridor" in order to bolster the Church. Now, in TL-191, that kind of quota will only be met in the 1980s. Until then, from the late 1940s on, the leadership of the Church will likely encourage immigration to Hawaii and Polynesia, though that might not matter to the US government. In any case, we might assume until the 1980s demographics similiar to the rest of the history of the Church, only with Hawaii/Polynesia and Utah/Southwest USA swapped. 50% of the LDS membership in Hawaii/Polynesia, 40% of the LDS in North America, 10% elsewhere.
So by 1980, when the LDS Church is about to break 600,000, Hawaii could have 270,000 members (90% of the LDS pop. in Polynesia). And +260,000 people. 22% of the pop. is LDS and the percentage is increasing. Just under the percentage of Idaho in OTL. By 2010, assuming peace and little shift in demographic trends, there could be 1.5 million LDS around the globe, with 30% of them in Polynesia, a membership of 400,000 living on the Sandwich Isles out of a total of 1,670,000, about 24% of the population.
You definitely want to account for this divergence of Hawaii and Polynesia. Politically, economically, socially, it would be pretty important.
The numbers assume that the LDS Church has learned its lesson and behaved itself in the intervening years
There is also assumption that immigration of Mormons would actually be permitted to the Sandwich Islands. Given that a) this is now one of the front lines against the Japanese Empire and b) Mormons could be seen as an enemy within, the proposed numbers of them there could be seen as a national security risk. US government policy could thus change and troublesome Mormons now get sent to Newfoundland or Nova Scotia where they can make mischief for the Canucks. Alternatively they would be prohibited from living on Oahu.
Tom Kalbfus
Banned
Why would the Mormons think the Japanese would treat them any better? These are unreformed World War II Japanese that chop off heads with their Samurai swords and like to starve and beat their captives on forced death marches, they rape Chinese women and slit their throats, now how are they going to treat a bunch of white Mormons if they so brutally treat members of their own race in China?
It wouldn't really be so much of an issue over whether or not the Empire of Japan would treat them any better, I'd imagine, but more or less simply because they're 'not the U.S.' in the minds of still rebellious Mormons; not to mention, Japan hasn't massacred entire portions of its membership, unlike the U.S.A. As for the actions of Japan ITTL, beheadings still might very well occur and they were known for their extremely poor treatment of POWs (see: Hispano-Japanese War of 1901 to 1905 references ITTL), but we've no indication of any other gruesome activities here. David could probably give a more accurate answer as to how the Japanese act here than I could (his interpretation currently, that is), though while it's likely they remained extremely rigid about honor and militarism runs high through their society, that doesn't necessarily mean OTL Japan's actions will have been repeated.
And, erm, the Japanese and Chinese aren't of the same race.
Faeelin
Banned
Simple. The Japanese of tis world make no fucking sense and so can adjust accordingly.
The only thing making less sense in this TL than Japan is how everyone else responds to Japan.
It seems to me that Turtledove couldn't plausibly fit Japan into this timeline and decided not to make a serious effort.
As to the Mormons, if we can somehow get beyond the absurdity of sending a hostile minority to an area Japan has twice(!) made efforts to seize, we repeat 1896. When the Mormons on Hawaii's big island reform their faith to suit the country, including a ban on polygamy and on racism, that island can be granted statehood. Otherwise the big island is parked in permanent territorial status.
And given the African-American Holocaust the Mormon stance on blacks entering the faith is liable to be a much more explosive issue.
It seems to me that Turtledove couldn't plausibly fit Japan into this timeline and decided not to make a serious effort.
As to the Mormons, if we can somehow get beyond the absurdity of sending a hostile minority to an area Japan has twice(!) made efforts to seize, we repeat 1896. When the Mormons on Hawaii's big island reform their faith to suit the country, including a ban on polygamy and on racism, that island can be granted statehood. Otherwise the big island is parked in permanent territorial status.
And given the African-American Holocaust the Mormon stance on blacks entering the faith is liable to be a much more explosive issue.
Hnau
Banned
No kidding. I wonder if there is any feeling of unity through being despised minorities on the wrong side of the border. The Mormons wouldn't get rid of the ban on blacks getting the priesthood until after the end of the Second Great War, as they want to curry favor with the Confederates, but afterwards... those that are left might recognize that the two groups hold a similar struggle, and try to make amends.
I would hope that would happen, but why didn't the Mormons here give up polygamy after the Mexican War? Or after the 1915 uprising? Or during the Long Occupation? That would have helped them a lot, if only they made the policy change. But they didn't. Why? Well, these guys have faced way more challenges and struggles than the OTL Latter-day Saints, and I bet that has radicalized them to the point where polygamy is even more sacrosanct than OTL pre-1890s. You have to convince one man, the Prophet, in order to get rid of polygamy, and in TL-191, the Prophet has been jailed and executed time and time again without getting rid of polygamy. Lots of martyrs, and there's a precedent set... if you're the Prophet, don't give up polygamy, after all the people that have died before you have given their lives to defend it. In this way, I don't think polygamy will ever be abandoned.
Well, no, I accounted for that. 75% growth rate following the uprising during the Mexican War to account for struggles against the occupying forces and the increasingly bad reputation the LDS are getting, which would hamper conversion rates.
Okay. I guess. But David makes it seem like the Mormons remain in Hawaii indefinitely, and that relations begin to be normalized in the late 1970s, so...
That is probably the most depressing map i have ever seen on AH.com.
Umm pardon?
Perhaps i should have rephrased that
. That was not an attack on your map making skills at all, but for British Empire Patriots() such as my self, that is one hard map to look at. The US has got a lot of normalisation to do: Confeds, Mormons, blacks, Canucks. One would expect the rise of a far right party asking why we are now licking the posteriors of people whose arses we kicked. Like the militias on OTL they may not get much electorial support, but they would certainly arm themselves and may even consider assassinating leaders who advocate civil rights for all US citizens.
