What's The Latest A Successful Invasion Of Britain Could Be Mounted?

so can we stop this dumb shit


Black Angel,

Amen.

it's odd that the Spanish Armada hasn't come up yet

I think that's because of the way the OP's question is framed; Latest successful invasion before 1900. People are looking at the 19th Century first and then are working their way back. That mindset means we're coming across the 1840s invasion scares, Napoleon, 1779, the Jacobites, and the various English Civil Wars opportunities first before we reach 1588 and the Armada.

rcduggan's 1779 suggestion got a bunch of nods so has something like that every been discussed here?


Bill
 

67th Tigers

Banned
:DAmusingly, I think this thread has answered two questions that have plagued me.

1) Will 67th Tigers argue that Britain would win in any non-McClellan related conflict no matter how lopsided the odds are stacked against it?

yes, and

I doubt they could have invaded Iraq without a friendly neighbour. Their ability to invade Kosovo was seriously in doubt. Major seaborne invasions are very, very, very difficult.
 
67th,

Similar to Iraq and Afghanistan? Pray tell what are those UK insurgents armed with? Cutlery?

Even that won't work as Britain is currently mulling over whether to ban knives with points.

It would be a mistake for the US to invade and occupy Britain but suggesting that the disarmed and hoplophobic British public would resist at a level similar to that in Iraq and Afghanistan is just plain silly.


Bill

The armed forces would switch to gurilla warfare when conventional warfare became too costly, when the alternative is to hand over the weapons to the enemy, passing them out to the potential recruits doesn't look that stupid. In short, the army will give them the guns.
 
lol i'm actually amused over the debate about a US-UK face-off. Actually interested to see a timeline develop out of this, even if it would most likely be posted in the ASB forum :D (or would there be enough butterflies 1860's onwards to result in a modern US-UK showdown?)

Back on topic, I'm surprised no one's mentioned this yet. Wonderful timeline, one of my favs.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
The US could do it. We have the naval power to attack Britain and most likely take out their SSBNs before they can launch. And with all of our aircraft carriers, we would most likely be able to establish air superiority, if not total supremacy.

400 airframes on vulnerable metal boxes?

Also, Britain's army is very small. I don't know how their reserves are, but I doubt that they would be on par with US reserves. We would most likely need a draft, or a recall of discharged veterans, but we could occupy Britain.

It's not that small, the US Regular force consists of

38 Armoured/ Infantry "heavy battalions"
36 Light Infantry Battalions (inc. Parachute etc.)
18 Stryker Infantry Battalions
106 Artillery Batteries

The ARNG adds:

16 Heavy Battalions
38 Light Battalions
3 Stryker Battalion
14 Artillery Batteries

Totalling 149 Battalions and 120 batteries

The USMC adds 36 infantry battalions, 3 tank battalions and some odds and sods

total = 188 manoeuvre units

The British Army (and Marines) OTOH only consists of 62 manoeuvre units, roughly a third of the combined US Regular/ ARNG/ USMC totals, granted.

For comparison, the French Army consists of 30 manoeuvre units, the German Army 23 units and the Italians 37. Hence the current debate on dropping more combat units, since the British Army are very combat heavy.

Throw in the additional fact that the Iraqis were occupied by people who didn't look like them, speak their language, or believe their religion. These are three things that would not be the case in a US invasion of Britain.

The Iraqis welcomed the liberation; it took a lot of doing to kick up that insurgency. The Iraq insurgency isn't that large, 10,000 insurgents is a reasonable figure. In Afghanistan the Taliban might be 3,000 strong at the outside, plus occasional supporters from tribesmen. These aren't large numbers are all. At their height in the mid 1970's the PIRA numbered less than 500.

Also, this is assuming we don't use nukes for ethical reasons, and rely on only conventional forces. If we do use nukes, the odds would be slanted even more in our favor. I doubt the British nuclear deterrent is hardened enough for Britain to play the MAD card.

Yes, you can keep 100 of your 300 cities?
 
400 airframes on vulnerable metal boxes?

400 airframes on ships each defended by its own carrier battle group comprising frigates, destroyers, and submarines, against a country whose major air bases, munitions depots, and fuel infrastructure have been bombed by our stealth bombers, yes.

It's not that small, the US Regular force consists of

38 Armoured/ Infantry "heavy battalions"
36 Light Infantry Battalions (inc. Parachute etc.)
18 Stryker Infantry Battalions
106 Artillery Batteries

The ARNG adds:

16 Heavy Battalions
38 Light Battalions
3 Stryker Battalion
14 Artillery Batteries

Totalling 149 Battalions and 120 batteries

The USMC adds 36 infantry battalions, 3 tank battalions and some odds and sods

total = 188 manoeuvre units

The British Army (and Marines) OTOH only consists of 62 manoeuvre units, roughly a third of the combined US Regular/ ARNG/ USMC totals, granted.

For comparison, the French Army consists of 30 manoeuvre units, the German Army 23 units and the Italians 37. Hence the current debate on dropping more combat units, since the British Army are very combat heavy.
Uh, I think you actually ended up arguing in favor of my point, rather than against it. In any case:

British troops (active and reserve): 441,860
American troops (active and reserves) 3,385,400



The Iraqis welcomed the liberation; it took a lot of doing to kick up that insurgency. The Iraq insurgency isn't that large, 10,000 insurgents is a reasonable figure. In Afghanistan the Taliban might be 3,000 strong at the outside, plus occasional supporters from tribesmen. These aren't large numbers are all. At their height in the mid 1970's the PIRA numbered less than 500.

And Britain (outside of Northern Ireland) is full of people inciting ethnic and religious hatred, right? In any case, the insurgency happened because we Americans were stupid and raced to take Baghdad rather than fighting and destroying Saddam's military forces. We bypassed them, so that once the war was over and obviously lost they could melt into the woodwork....with their weapons.

Besides, although the PIRA was a thorn in Britain's side, that didn't mean Britain ever lost control of Northern Ireland. And as I recall, didn't the PIRA give up violence around the turn of the millennium? In other words: didn't they lose?

But I do agree that a guerrilla war would be the best strategy. Act all big and tough before an American invasion to dissuade us from doing it, but if that doesn't work, I think Britain's best bet would be to disband their army, have their soldiers, sailor, and airmen take whatever arms they can carry, destroy whatever they can't, and leave the armories open.


Yes, you can keep 100 of your 300 cities?
Britain has four nuclear subs, with one on patrol. Maybe two. So two or three subs will be blown up in port before they even have a chance to launch. One, maybe two, will be hunted by a decent portion of the US submarine fleet (46 Los Angeles class subs alone, with some in carrier battle groups) and will also be subject to blanket nuke attacks using tactical weapons (to avoid alarming other nuclear powers with a missile launch).

So most likely, we will lose no cities. Britain, on the other hand, would be a charred ember. Although granted, I wouldn't want to gamble. If I were dictator of the United States, and for some reason wanted to invade Britain, I wouldn't use nukes, at least not until it looked like you guys would launch in defense of yourselves.
 
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Trying desperately to drag the thread off this tedious US invasion thing...

I can imagine the UK could be invaded up to 1900 by, perhaps, France, if the PoD was sufficiently before that to allow Britain to be weakened relative to OTL and perhaps France (or whoever) strengthened, so that the playing field is more level.
 
Yes, that's right, attack your main ally, invalidate the NATO treaty, and declare war on the EU. Brilliant plan yanks, alienate the world, and if Europe doesn't declare war against you, then they'll fall into an alliance with China and Russia within the week.

Once again congratulations on declaring war on the major supporter of the US war on terror.

Seriously, while the US could on a one on one basis invade britain, that would require support of the population, huge investments of capital, and destroying most of it's alliances. So to speak theirs many more soft factors to back up to hard ones against a US invasion of Britain.
 
Sanctions would be immediate, effective and harsh

Just try to imagine Hollywood (especially the TV industry) if we withdrew our chaps :p
 
That mindset means we're coming across the 1840s invasion scares, Napoleon, 1779, the Jacobites, and the various English Civil Wars opportunities first before we reach 1588 and the Armada.

rcduggan's 1779 suggestion got a bunch of nods so has something like that every been discussed here?

Oy, I considered posing this question a while back. I'm glad I didn't. This is a very frustrating thread.

I had been thinking that the answer was in a Jacobite invasion with more dedicated French support. There were enough people who would have welcomed the True King from Over the Water that that stood half a chance.

I really like the 1779 scenario with de Grasse. What, I wonder, would the reaction be over in North America? It would massively discredit the USA cause, I think. "Look what Congress did. They got mixed up with the god-damnable French, and now look what happened. Britain and America cannot stand disunited!" The Crown is now in a position of weakness, to put it incredibly mildly. Why not agree to American demands for representation, etc?
 
Just try to imagine Hollywood (especially the TV industry) if we withdrew our chaps :p

No more House.:eek:

Yes, that's right, attack your main ally, invalidate the NATO treaty, and declare war on the EU. Brilliant plan yanks, alienate the world, and if Europe doesn't declare war against you, then they'll fall into an alliance with China and Russia within the week.

Once again congratulations on declaring war on the major supporter of the US war on terror.

Seriously, while the US could on a one on one basis invade britain, that would require support of the population, huge investments of capital, and destroying most of it's alliances. So to speak theirs many more soft factors to back up to hard ones against a US invasion of Britain.

Fail troll is very fail.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
400 airframes on ships each defended by its own carrier battle group comprising frigates, destroyers, and submarines, against a country whose major air bases, munitions depots, and fuel infrastructure have been bombed by our stealth bombers, yes.

Stealth bombers are simply death-traps; "stealth" was a misonomer in 1991 (when the Iraqi air defence net tracked every incoming and outgoing F-117A), and it was dead when 3 1960's soviet radars linked via an IBM PC with some sophisticated software was able to forward the data to Strella teams and hit several. The B-2 is now relegated to an expensive to run substitute for the far more capable B-52 carrying stand-off missiles. Either way, any bomber trying to challenge the UKADR without fighter cover is simply using up a Skyflash or AMRAAM (or, a Meteor if in service).

The defences of a CVBG are very weak indeed. Aegis is a 50 year old dinosaur that will have trouble even seeing modern ordnance, and can only have 2 (or 3 for the Ticonderoga class at certain angles) illuminators engaging. For a typical CVBG that means they can only engage 5 targets at once. Against modern missiles you get one engagement as the missile breaks the radar horizon, hopefully with ESSM. A couple of frigates salvoing against a CVBG are very likely to mission kill the carrier.

Uh, I think you actually ended up arguing in favor of my point, rather than against it. In any case:

British troops (active and reserve): 441,860
American troops (active and reserves) 3,385,400

No, you have 188 combat units. Iraq took 1/3rd of all combat units to hold down, whence the problem.

And Britain (outside of Northern Ireland) is full of people inciting ethnic and religious hatred, right? In any case, the insurgency happened because we Americans were stupid and raced to take Baghdad rather than fighting and destroying Saddam's military forces. We bypassed them, so that once the war was over and obviously lost they could melt into the woodwork....with their weapons.

No, that's not what happened at all. Iraq was peacefully liberated, and the people overjoyed, and then Rumsfeld managed to alienate everyone that mattered in the country in the space of a few months.

Besides, although the PIRA was a thorn in Britain's side, that didn't mean Britain ever lost control of Northern Ireland. And as I recall, didn't the PIRA give up violence around the turn of the millennium? In other words: didn't they lose?

That's debatable, they've simply altered tactics. In all probability the Army Council of the Provisional Government of the Irish Republic are now attempting to subvert the "Free State" government instead.

Britain has four nuclear subs, with one on patrol. Maybe two. So two or three subs will be blown up in port before they even have a chance to launch. One, maybe two, will be hunted by a decent portion of the US submarine fleet (46 Los Angeles class subs alone, with some in carrier battle groups) and will also be subject to blanket nuke attacks using tactical weapons (to avoid alarming other nuclear powers with a missile launch).

200 warheads, 48 hot for launch in minutes, another 48 launchable in 48 hours. In the event of hostilities I'd imagine they send the 3 ready subs out to sea. The 200 ready warheads won't even fill 2 subs to capacity (the 59 missile bodies can carry 531 warheads, which is enough to hit every city and military base in the United States). The ability of the weapons in storage to detonate is questionable, nukes have a very short shelf life (2 years in the case of the more primative devices, yes, 2 years after manufacture a crude bomb, such as an Israeli package, will not detonate).

So most likely, we will lose no cities. Britain, on the other hand, would be a charred ember. Although granted, I wouldn't want to gamble. If I were dictator of the United States, and for some reason wanted to invade Britain, I wouldn't use nukes, at least not until it looked like you guys would launch in defense of yourselves.

Ever played the Prisoner's Dilemma?
 
Got a citation for AEGIS being 50 years old?

I was under the impression it was actually relatively new, and had been upgraded to deal with the Sunburns and other "Aegis Killer" missiles.
 
These threads are always amusing / stupid. Mainly because they ignore the reasons for the war, and thus the will to win factor of both sides. In a total war, where each side is willing to fight to the last man (or at least the second to last man as is the historical case in the most bloody of wars) you'd be hard pressed to argue that the Americans couldn't win.

Second, as far as the invasion of Britain goes:

1) The main question is air superiority. Can American carriers develop air superiority over the Islands on their own, or would Iceland have to be taken first? If Iceland is conquered first, then land based aircraft could establish air superiority.

2) D-Day? Please, that's so last century. A successful invasion of England would probably involve large numbers of paratroopers securing airfields and ports, wild weasle-missions destroying brit SAMS, and the remainder of the invasion force being trucked into secure (or newly created by Engineer Corps) airstrips and docks. That is, of course, in a total war scenario. (Where the U.S. nationalized its air carriers and impressed shipping.)
 
lol i'm actually amused over the debate about a US-UK face-off. Actually interested to see a timeline develop out of this, even if it would most likely be posted in the ASB forum :D (or would there be enough butterflies 1860's onwards to result in a modern US-UK showdown?)

Back on topic, I'm surprised no one's mentioned this yet. Wonderful timeline, one of my favs.

I would be interested in seeing a discussion of a conflict around the 1920s. A POD during WWI should be enough to get the two countries at loggerheads. Any later, and the ever increasing cooperation of the Atlantic Alliance would render war ASB, and too much later would have the U.S. being far too strong. And culture and mass media hasn't made it impossible to sustain the kind of losses inherent in launching an overseas invasion of a major industrialized power.

It would even be something of a fair fight. Actual military strength is about even, but the Brits have far more experience while the Americans have far more industrial power and wealth. The smallish size of the U.S. regular army means Canada won't be overrun in a week. And I've always been interested in pitting the American Standard concept of a slow, but uniform battleline with standardized main batteries in a fleet engagement with the British battleline with all its differing speeds and combat ranges.
 
These threads are always amusing / stupid. Mainly because they ignore the reasons for the war, and thus the will to win factor of both sides. In a total war, where each side is willing to fight to the last man (or at least the second to last man as is the historical case in the most bloody of wars) you'd be hard pressed to argue that the Americans couldn't win.

I had thought it clear that being ASB induced, there are no reasons for war, nor any consideration of the will to win. I mean really, getting the modern U.S. and Britain to fight each other without ASBs is impossible.

Ever played the Prisoner's Dilemma?

Prisoners Dilemma doesn't really apply here. Britain has no incentive to launch a first strike since its nuclear weapons are not vulnerable to a fast decapitation strike, and it lacks the ability to significantly weaken the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The U.S. has no incentive to launch a first strike, since it would induce the Brits to retaliate, devastating the U.S. while the U.S. would win in any purely conventional struggle.
 
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I had thought it clear that being ASB induced, there are no reasons for war, nor any consideration of the will to win. I mean really, getting the modern U.S. and Britain to fight each other without ASBs is impossible.


I don't disagree. Altought as an American citizen from a military family, I still have to say the will to fight in any scenario is important.

At least, from my perspective, and knowing my family, there's certain wars in which my family members opinion would be 'Damn the Torpedoes!" (Or damn the casualties) to parphrase, and others in which we'd say "I'm not the fortunate son." And I'd imagine there's similar famalies in the Britain, although I wouldn't know.

So, when talking about this hypothetical war. I think it is incumbent upon any realitisic scenario to decide whether or not I, my brother, sister, and mother, are saying "See you in (a conquered) London, or see you in Heaven!" or saying "What the hell is the president thinking?" It makes a world loads of difference.
 
Okay, to keep this thread kosher for the Before 1900 board, I created a thread in ASBs to discuss a US invasion of Britain. I think it will be best to keep the discussion there.

Here is the thread.
 
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