Less Russian Siberia?

[Coqui]

I'm thinking a Time of Troubles PoD. Suppose it results in a weaker, conquered, or more westward looking Russia; what do you think might happen to Siberia? I heard something about an indigenous uprising during the time of troubles, but Russian troops were ultimately able to put them down. If Russia was in a weaker place, would the native Siberians have a chance at driving the Russians out?

It seems the river routes and flat topography makes the land east of the Urals particularly vulnerable. Would Poland, Sweden, Ruthenia, or whoever else have just an easy a time conquering it? Would we see more Polish and Cossack offshoots, like the state of Jaxa? It seems like relations between Jaxa and China were spoiled because Jaxa was trying to be a vassal to both Russia and China. If Russia was less of a concern, Could other northern Asian states have been viable in the 17th century; cossack, indigenous, or otherwise?

First post. I hope I didn't commit any major faux pas .

 

[Coqui]

Looking into it a bit more, it seems the Stroganovs seemed to have been given a monopoly on eastward expeditions for the fur trade, which was brought on by British trade expeditions to Russia. I wonder if the Stroganovs could have had their own eastern state

 

[Vladyslav]

IOTL Russians were expanding into Siberia along the path of least resistance. Much more effort was expended on the European territories south of the Oka and their agrarian colonization in the 17th and 18th centuries.

 

[ArchimedesCircle]

Maybe Perm could break off and end up with a Uralic Siberia?

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Prehapse have the central asian tribes partially modernize starting in the medieval era as a result of making better use of the silk roade trade to get europian imports so they dont fall behind and later after the medieval era once gun power starts proving its worth, transition from classic mounted archery into something like the later European Dragoon units or some other variation that allows them to blend thier traditional strangths in mounted warfair and put it to early use kind of like a central asian equivalent of Japan in the 1500s that was on the road to early modernization before they closed thier doors.

Mounted archery - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Dragoon - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Japanese invasions of Korea (1592–1598) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Silk Road - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Coqui]

Prehapse have the central asian tribes partially modernize starting in the medieval era as a result of making better use of the silk roade trade to get europian imports so they dont fall behind and later after the medieval era once gun power starts proving its worth, transition from classic mounted archery into something like the later European Dragoon units or some other variation that allows them to blend thier traditional strangths in mounted warfair and put it to early use kind of like a central asian equivalent of Japan in the 1500s that was on the road to early modernization before they closed thier doors.

Mounted archery - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Dragoon - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Japanese invasions of Korea (1592–1598) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Silk Road - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

interesting idea. What do you think might bring this about?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Russia was expanding into a vacuum. The actions of their fur traders and cossacks wouldn't be much affected by the Time of Troubles. Worst case scenario for Russia, it forms an independent Russian state or perhaps gets incorporated into Poland-Lithuania.

The English and Dutch had interests in the Northeast Passage in the early 17th century, but despite contemporary Russian paranoia, they don't really stand a chance at conquering the area even if a prominent Arctic port like Mangazeya might be defacto ran by the Dutch. Unlike OTL, foreign trade through the Northeast Passage would still occur so the region would be wealthier, connected to the world, and form a perfectly viable state.

The Siberian natives don't have much of a chance at state formation. The strongest, the Sibir Khanate, was nothing but a post-Golden Horde remnant that was fairly easily toppled by the Russians. Most of them were far less organized and were nomadic tribes or sedentary villages with no greater form of organization. The real powers in the region were the Dzungars and Qing, but they didn't expand north of the southernmost "forest" tribes (i.e. Altai and Tuvans) since they already got everything they needed from that region by doing so. If you're really pushing it, you could have the Chinese get some presence on Lake Baikal since it has some cultural importance as one of China's "Four Seas"--maybe after the Qing beat the Dzungars they establish more forts there and use it for additional legitimacy over their Han subjects.

The one exception might be the Sakha/Yakuts, who MIGHT be able to form a state assuming pressure from China/Mongols/Dzungars and Russian explorers, but I don't think in this scenario there's enough pressure to truly force the Sakha together. And even if there was, I doubt they'd be a particularly strong state given sparse population density and general remoteness. Still, that remoteness could be useful come the era of nationalism and imperialism. Their khanate could stay relatively untouched and keep its independence because they'd be heavily dependent on the great powers for practically everything, its advantageous to not let rival powers colonize them, and it spares the cost of a colonial administration while getting most of the advantages.

 

[Coqui]

Worst case scenario for Russia, it forms an independent Russian state or perhaps gets incorporated into Poland-Lithuania.

See, now you have me imagining a scenario where Poland-Lithuania and/or Sweden rule most of European Russia from Moscow while the Stroganovs and Yaik cossacks set up a Russian state in Asia. Not sure how easily a Slavic Siberian state could survive without European Russia supporting it, though.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

interesting idea. What do you think might bring this about?

The best location areas for taking advantage of the silk road was along the southern route that cuts through Samarkand

Samarkand - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

China was a big player in gun powder and Europe started pushing thier aptitude in cannon craft as a solution to the walled castles and forts of Europe leading to a phasing out of traditional catapults for seidge warfair overtime. A possible reason for the tribes to take intrest in making or importanting thier own gunpowder or europian style cannons with thier wealth gained from the trade along the silk road is it makes up for one of the issues of central asian nomadic warfair which was difficulty seidgeing. This was likley due to inexperience and lack of equipment as it was not as needed in Central asia which had much fewer castles and forts so the main motivater would likely be to accompany raids or expansion into India or parts of persia (like along the south caspian coast) that held more wealth then Central asia but made more use of castles and forts.
Assuming they can stay together a

Chagatai might be a decent candidate controlling much of the central strech of the silk road as you enter and leave china. They also showed a intrest in raiding India based on thier attempted invasions of Delhi which is a big qualifier in thier intrest to adopt early gun poweder based seidge weapon and beginning to integrate firearms into thier mounted infantry/calvary which would have a greater ability to penatrate armor/shields then traditional bow and arrow. Long guns and pistols could be made of use with the later being able to be of greatest use as a complement to calvary charges in the case of the later Cuirassier mounted units.

Cuirassier - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Chagatai Khanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Delhi Sultanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Arquebus - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Arkenfolm]

See, now you have me imagining a scenario where Poland-Lithuania and/or Sweden rule most of European Russia from Moscow while the Stroganovs and Yaik cossacks set up a Russian state in Asia. Not sure how easily a Slavic Siberian state could survive without European Russia supporting it, though.

Well they don't really have any enemies besides whoever rules European Russia and I suppose the natives should they resist. The Kazakhs, Dzungars, and Qing can only project power in the south of the region, but its plausible these cossacks could keep decent relations with one of these powers.

The best location areas for taking advantage of the silk road was along the southern route that cuts through Samarkand

Samarkand - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

China was a big player in gun powder and Europe started pushing thier aptitude in cannon craft as a solution to the walled castles and forts of Europe leading to a phasing out of traditional catapults and for seidge warfair overtime. A possible reason for the tribes to take intrest in making or importanting thier own gunpowder or europian style cannons with thier wealth gained from the trade along the silk road is it makes up for one of the issues of central asian nomadic warfair which was difficulty seidgeing. This was likley due to inexperience and lack of equipment as it was not as needed in Central asia which had much fewer castles and forts so the main motivater would likely be to accompany raids or expansion into India or parts of persia (like along the south caspian coast) that held more wealth then Central asia but made more use of castles and forts.
Assuming they can stay together a Chagatai might be a decent candidate and also showed a intrest in raiding India based on thier attempted invasions of Delhi

Chagatai Khanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Delhi Sultanate - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

They'd be far more likely to use said gunpowder, cannon, and organization to invade/conquer Persia, India, or China, which is precisely what happened in this period. The Dzungars for instance were so strong because they had European gunsmiths, purchased Russian guns, and knew how to employ them in battle.

 

[kholieken]

Native Siberian is too few in number. For Siberia that not under control of outsider (Russia, Central Asia, China, Mongolia, or Japan) some sort of different agriculture or herding method is needed. Thule ATL agriculture or Sami reindeer herd is needed.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Native Siberian is too few in number. For Siberia that not under control of outsider (Russia, Central Asia, China, Mongolia, or Japan) some sort of different agriculture or herding method is needed. Thule ATL agriculture or Sami reindeer herd is needed.

The Sami have smaller reindeer than indigenous Siberian reindeer herders, who have been herding reindeer for about a millennium longer than the Sami.

I think part of the problem is that the best farmland in Siberia is also the area immediately adjacent to the steppe, meaning the most logical lifestyle was to keep mobile and center the economy around hunting so the more powerful tribes to the south (i.e. the Mongols, Jurchen, Turks, etc.) have something for tribute that isn't your lifestock or your people.

Maybe an earlier Sakha/Yakut migration north would do it. They raise some of the most cold-hardy horses (ponies, technically) and cattle in the world as far north as the Arctic coast, and were successful at assimilating some native Siberians who became reindeer herding clans and tribes. If all of Siberia had that lifestyle--which might spread as reindeer herding did--then you'd have more Siberians and better organized societies which might band into larger khanate-type states.

 

[Kokoda]

Sibir was nothing more than a ruin, as @Arkenfolm explained that. In OTL, it took only a few thousand Russian settlers moving to the West Siberian steppes to completely dismantle the khanate from within. So technically, even if Russia doesn't exist, any Indo-European state (Poland-Lithuania, Kievan Rus', a wank Holy Roman Empire, etc.) that manages to take control of the Volga Basin is also destined to seize Western Siberia. The Indo-European colonization of Siberia could nevertheless be slowed down and confined to the west of Yenisey (less demand for fur on European markets, for example). If Eastern Siberia manages to stay out of the game until the 19th century, then I could see the Qing controlling Lake Baikal as well as Yakutia as Turco-Mongol vassal states and the Japanese the Kamchatka Peninsula and possibly also Outer Manchuria west of the Amur River.