The Spanish Heir (What if Carlos II had a son?)

1.17: Hamburg and Ultimatums
XVII: Hamburg and Ultimatums
640px-Belagerung_Hamburg_1686_-_Danish_Siege_of_Hamburg_1686.jpg

Siege of Hamburg of 1686

Even though Buda had been besieged for 75 days and Sari Suleyman Pasha’s army was defeated more than two weeks before the city fell, the news of Buda was still considered remarkable at Versailles. No matter much progress the Imperial army made, the French never let go of their belief that the Buda would hold out just as it had done in 1684. The Imperial army was weak, ill-organized, and poorly led. Charles of Lorraine was stubbornly set in his own ways and knew not how to coordinate with his subordinates. Max Emanuel was a young prince with all the brashness and foolhardiness which that entailed. Ludwig of Baden received higher marks but was still described as vain, more vain than he had the right to be. The soldiers under them were even worse. Their equipment was a disappointment, their logistics a nightmare, and their training lacking. This was not an army capable of conquering the central bastion of Hungary. Buda would hold on until the fall. At that point, the French expected disease and weather to wipe out the Imperial army. When instead, the French learned that Buda had fallen before the end of August they were uncertain on how to react. For a moment some wondered if the inefficient and incompetent Austrian army had successfully reinvented itself since its embarrassing setback at Esztergom in 1685. Could the Austrians have become a military machine worth fearing? How did this all bode for France’s own security? Might the Germans finally muster the strength to challenge the army of France?

The worried thoughts of Versailles did not last long. Letters from the front arrived shortly after the initial news of Buda’s fall. Two French military observers, Charles de Caradas, Marquis Du Heron, and Claude Louis Hector, Marquis de Villars, were embedded in the Imperial army as Bavarian officers and they produced their own versions of events for the Second Siege of Buda. The two Frenchmen described the Austrians as having won despite themselves and because of the Brandenburger and Bavarian armies. They reminded their king that the great victory over the Grand Vizier had been won by Max Emanuel of Bavaria while Charles of Lorraine had gotten distracted by a smaller wing of the Ottoman army. Throughout the siege, the Bavarians had been the ones who had operated in the thick of the operations and achieved the most success. The Saxon involvement in the Bavarian army received no notice or recognition from either Heron or Villars. Ultimately, when the rest of the Imperial army contributed, it was Brandenburg rather than Austria who Heron and Villars credited as overcoming the Esztergom Rondella. This fit with Louis XIV and his war minister, Louvois’ own notions about the Imperial army. The Brandenburgers were regarded highly and the Bavarians were earning a reputable name for themselves. The main question was what to make of the French-educated Max Emanuel. Was he a gallant fop who was carried to victory by his subordinates or was he was dangerous commander who deserved the respect and attention of France?

The negative perception of the Austrian military was emphasized by the leading French diplomats in the region. France’s new ambassador to Vienna, Andre de Betoulat, Comte de la Vauguyon, highlighted the heavy casualties suffered by the Imperial army and assured his superiors in France that the Imperial army would not be following up on their victory at Buda anytime soon. The campaign had reduced the Austrian treasury to shambles and just as the Austrians had difficulties putting together their 1686 campaign so too would they have difficulties putting together a 1687 campaign. Any further Imperial success would be achieved solely on the backs of the Electoral troops. Vauguyon’s report received heavy scrutiny in Versailles. Vauguyon was often slow in producing his reports, which still did not provide him enough time to avoid numerous inaccuracies. Louis Verjus, Comte de Crecy, the ambassador to the Imperial Diet at Regensburg often had to correct Vauguyon. Just earlier that year, Vauguyon had assured Versailles that the tolls of winter would make rebuilding the Imperial infantry an impossibility. Yet in August that Imperial infantry had broken through the gates of Buda. Despite Vauguyon’s obvious overstatement of Austrian issues, the theme of Austrian inadequacy was echoed by Verjus who gave special attention to the commendable actions of the soldiers of Cologne. Verjus pressed Louis XIV and Louvois to maintain the French friendship with Cologne for this reason. Finally, France’s lead agent in Constantinople, Pierre Girardin described the poor state of the Ottoman military and the preexisting questions of Sari Suleyman Pasha’s ability to handle the Imperial army. Girardin’s letter cemented a picture of Buda’s fall being the result of anything but Austria’s strength.


Each of these reports served to assuage the fears of Louis XIV that the Imperial army was far from becoming a formidable and capable opponent. Both the king and Louvois carried on in their belief that the Imperial army was slow, weak, and incapable of matching the larger and better French army. At the same time, the favorable reports of Brandenburg’s military strengthened Louis XIV’s interest in retaining the Brandenburger alliance which had become extremely fraught over the past year. Brandenburger’s revived relationship with the Dutch Republic, its contribution to the Hungarian campaign, and its suspected affiliation with the Augsburg League were all affronts to the dignity of the Franco-Brandenburger alliance. Yet with these reports keeping Brandenburg’s army in France’s sphere became a priority. The same reports of Bavaria’s prowess convinced Louis XIV that if Brandenburg was truly drifting out of his sphere the French-educated Maximilian Emanuel could be the ideal replacement. Still, the predominant thought in Louis XIV’s mind was the concern that in a few years' time that Emperor Leopold’s army would have the experience, discipline, and numbers to threaten French security. Emperor Leopold seemed to only be growing stronger with Buda now added to his realm. With Imre Thokoly wearing chains and the Hungarians tiring of their Muslim overlords, Emperor Leopold could soon command an army of thousands of Hungarians. Even if Louis XIV did not think highly of the rough and rowdy Hungarians, he understood that there was strength itself in numbers. Louvois was less concerned about Austria’s future strength but still believed the time to strike was close at hand. Better to destroy Austria while it was entangled in the east than to wage a longer and more complicated war against an undistracted Austria in the future.

In response to Louis XIV’s growing but inconsistent concern with Emperor Leopold, he issued a demand to the Emperor and the Imperial Diet for negotiations to begin on the basis of turning the Truce of Regensburg into a permanent peace settlement by the end of March 1687. This demand came at a critical time for Emperor Leopold who was trying to organize another campaign against the Ottomans to push them back further and thus secure Hungary as an Austrian crown. If the French attacked then Emperor Leopold would surely have to recall his army from the east and possibly open up Buda to a counterattack. However, Emperor Leopold could not bring himself to accept the demands of Louis XIV and refused to negotiate. At the same time, Pope Innocent XI recognized the inability of the rest of the Holy League to push onward without the Imperial army drawing the focus of the Ottomans. If the Imperials turned back then the small Venetian army in Morea or the struggling Polish army in Podolia would be beset by reinforced Ottoman armies that they doubtless could not handle. This eastern war had become the principle policy of Innocent XI’s papacy. Hundreds of thousands of ducats from around Europe were being funneled into the war by Innocent XI’s church. He wanted to bring Christendom back to Hungary and the Balkans and he could not afford for Louis XIV to ruin that.

Friedrich Wilhelm of Brandenburg recognized that for the time being, the Holy Roman Empire was entirely incapable of combating a French invasion. Too many soldiers were in the east, too many princes remained in French pay, and too few preparations for war had been made. Friedrich Wilhelm expected that if Emperor Leopold did not give Louis XIV something the Empire would be thrown into a war that it would not win. Thus, both Pope Innocent XI and Friedrich Wilhelm tried to pressure Emperor Leopold into changing his mind. Friedrich Wilhelm went so far as to decline to return his soldiers to the Hungarian front. Instead, Friedrich Wilhelm argued that France was the greater threat and his army should remain in Germany to provide for the safety of the Protestant faith. Ultimately, Pope Innocent XI resolved the crisis by personally vouching that Emperor Leopold would adhere to the Truce of Regensburg no matter what the outcome of the Turkish war was. Louis XIV was content with the Pope’s promise and the withdrawal of Brandenburger soldiers from the Imperial army. The first gave Louis XIV an important political weapon against Emperor Leopold and the latter took away one of Emperor Leopold’s finest weapons in the Ottoman war. Based on everything Louis XIV had heard and read, the Imperials would not get much done without the Brandenburgers, and if Leopold defied the Pope then the endless stream of Papal money might be cut off so that Austria would have to face the financial repercussions for its reckless war in the east. In the meantime, France strengthened its own hold over the disputed territories by building forts at Huningen and Giesenheim.

Louis XIV’s mind remained unsettled because this temporary hold in the Rhine coincided with a dismal failure for French policy in the Baltic. While France had supported Sweden during the Scanian War and ensured that Sweden escaped the war without any loss of territory, King Karl XI showed little gratitude at all for France’s services. In response, Louis XIV had first allied with Brandenburg, a common foe of Sweden, and then in 1682, made France a partner of Denmark-Norway, Sweden’s traditional antagonist. With these two powers in hand, Louis XIV expected to keep the Baltic and Northern Germany in line with French interests. However, both Brandenburg and Denmark-Norway had interests of their own. The two longed for a war of revenge against Sweden, one which France had little desire to support. France’s enemies lay in Vienna, not Stockholm. Another Baltic war would leave Northern Germany free from fear of retaliation for consorting with the Emperor. So France refused to provide the support that Brandenburg and Denmark-Norway so desperately wanted. Although Brandenburg still tried to imagine ways to fight Sweden in Germany even without French support, Denmark-Norway’s trans-Baltic objectives did not afford it the same opportunity. The Scanian War had taught Denmark-Norway the difficulty of managing a long campaign across the Sound. Despite initial resounding victories, Denmark-Norway could not maintain the momentum of its campaign and ultimately found itself unable to fully reconquer Scania. Relegated to just holding Landskrona, Denmark-Norway was incapable of winning back Scania at the peace tables. Ultimately, Denmark-Norway gained nothing for all the lives it lost and all the money it spent. So if Louis XIV was determined to deny Denmark-Norway a Baltic war then King Christian V of Denmark-Norway would turn his attentions south, toward Germany, just as Louis XIV desired.

First, in 1683, Christian V demanded that Christian Albrecht, Duke of Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp, give up his sovereignty and turn himself into a satellite of Denmark-Norway. Naturally, the duke refused. But the very next year, Christian V showed that whether Christian Albrecht was married to Christian V’s sister or not that Christian V would have his way. The Danes occupied all of Schleswig-Gottorp and sent Christian Albrecht into exile in Hamburg. Then in 1685, the Danes occupied the rest of the Gottorp lands, in Holstein. Even though France did not actively assist in these Danish conquests, the French alliance certainly helped ward against Swedish or German intervention in the illegal occupation of Gottorp lands. Yet this easy conquest was insufficient for Christian V. Schleswig-Holstein-Gottorp barely compared to the expanse of Scania. Christian V wanted more but still Louis XIV denied him a Swedish war. So once more Christian V focused his eyes to the south and zoned in on Hamburg. In 1679, directly after making peace with Sweden, Christian V ordered an attack on Hamburg to bring the city back under the possession of the Danish-held Duchy of Holstein, which Christian V believed to be the proper overlord of the Hanseatic city. Yet with pressure from France persisting, the Danes had to walk away after accepting a payoff of 220,000 thalers and a promise that Danish homage claims would be reviewed. In 1686, Christian V hoped to accomplish much more with France at his back.

The root of Christian V’s return to Hamburg was Hamburg’s own internal issues. Starting in 1683, the recurrent intra-political warfare between the high-born and oppressive senate and the popular citizen’s movement escalated and introduced chaos and turmoil into the city. The citizens gained a new rallying point with the Committee of Thirties and its leaders, Cord Jastram and Hieronymus Snitger. The more coherent and organized citizen’s movement was able to orchestrate the removal and expulsion of city councilman after city councilman under finally the aristocratic mayor of Hamburg, Heinrich Meurer, was forced to flee. In his place, the more acceptable Johann Sluter was appointed. However, Meurer’s flight was not one into retirement. Instead, Meurer had gone to Georg Wilhelm, Prince of Celle, and through him begged for Emperor Leopold’s assistance. Emperor Leopold answered Meurer's call affirmatively. Since the Emperor’s resources were dedicated to Hungary and the Emperor’s favorite prince in the region, Ernest August, Prince of Calenburg, had sent his men to fight for Venice, Emperor Leopold tasked Georg Wilhelm with restoring order to Hamburg. Celle’s army moved out in January 1686 and defeated the Hamburger grenadiers on the doorsteps of Hamburg. However, the small contingent of Luneburgers found it difficult to conquer the whole city and by April they had retreated to just one, albeit a strategically import one, suburb, Moorwerder. The aggression of Celle resulted in Jastram and Snitger making a desperate appeal to Denmark-Norway for relief. Invited by Hamburg and going to war with one of the disciples of the Emperor, Christian V expected to receive France’s full support. But despite France being a formal ally of Denmark-Norway in 1686 unlike 1679, the message from France remained the same. Louis XIV refused to sanction a Danish attack on Hamburg. France could see Germany organizing itself against it and France needed to preserve its strength until it was ready to strike. Louis XIV advised caution and patience to Christian V. He would have to wait to fight and in the meantime, Louis XIV suggested turning toward diplomacy to resolve the matter.

Louis XIV’s advisements were viewed like poison by the Danes. Already, the Danes had blocked the Elbe and begun the assembly of an army in Holstein. Yet Louis XIV expected them to wait until France said otherwise. Christian V could hardly imagine passing up the golden opportunity presented to him. Hamburg was calling for a Danish intervention, how could he say no? Still, Christian V hesitated. The last attack on Hamburg had not conquered the city, and what if Sweden attack Denmark-Norway while it was distracted? Just as Christian V hesitated, the most unexpected letter arrived from Stockholm. Rather than threatening to intervene or demanding compensation for staying aloft, Karl XI strongly encouraged Christian V to attack Hamburg. Karl XI’s motivations were simple. The Swedish army and navy were still in need of rebuilding after the Scanian War and so long as the Danish-Norwegian army remained preoccupied Sweden could rebuild without fear of imminent war. Whatever the Swedish reasons, this encouragement was all Christian V needed to push forward with his Hamburg campaign. In August 1686, Christian V arrived at Altona and from there sent an ultimatum to Hamburg. Firstly, the city would perform hereditary homage to Denmark-Norway. Secondly, a single payment of 400,000 thalers would be due to Denmark-Norway from Hamburg. Finally, Hamburg would welcome 2,000 to 3,000 Danish soldiers for its own protection. If any of these terms were refused then the Hanseatic City of Hamburg would be leveled by Danish cannons before being overrun by Danish infantry.

When the city council failed to answer Denmark-Norway’s demands in a timely fashion, the king’s half-brother, Ulrich Friedrich Gyldenlove, led an army of 16,000 men toward Hamburg. As promised, the Danes opened their siege with a massive and unrelenting bombardment of Hamburg. This Danish attack immediately resulted in a shift in Hamburg's sentiments. No longer were Celle and the Emperor the enemy. Instead, Denmark-Norway was the oppressor that needed to be stopped and so pro-Danish politicians, Jastram and Snitger, were arrested and a more pro-Imperial government was formed. With the pro-Danish leaders in shackles, the Hamburgers made clear their determined resistance to Christian V’s ambitions, and the Danes dug in for a siege. Over the first week, the Danes did significant damage to Hamburg’s defenders but failed to break through the city’s defenses. Meanwhile, Swedes within Hamburg organized the city’s counter-bombardment of Altona, which resulted in widespread destruction of the latter town. A brief armistice was agreed as a result. During that time, Christian V called up a further 2,000 Danes to replenish his besieging army. However, the failure of the Danes to completely cut off Hamburg meant that the city found 8,000 reinforcements from Celle and Brandenburg. Thus, the defense of Hamburg swelled to 20,000 men in total while the siege numbered just 18,000. To add to matters, another 6,000 Brandenburgers were on their way. After just two weeks, Christian V was already reconsidering the feasibility of his siege. The numbers at the moment did not favor an assault and if Christian V waited any longer then in all likelihood his army would be mauled by a considerable counterattack. With France still holding out from providing any help, the only option left to Christian V was to give up and retreat. Less than three weeks after the siege of Hamburg had begun, the Danish army completed its full withdrawal from Hamburg.

To avoid a war breaking out, a negotiated settlement became the preferred conclusion to the Hamburg episode. In light of Denmark-Norway’s military failure, Emperor Leopold, Sweden, and Spain wanted to force a punitive outcome. Naturally, Emperor Leopold wanted to punish Denmark-Norway for its transgression against the Imperial Free City of Hamburg, a status that Denmark-Norway had refused to recognize for centuries. Spain still saw itself as an important power despite its horrific half-century and thought of negotiations around Hamburg as a way to remind its European colleagues of Spain’s strength. Sweden revealed its true colors as an enemy rather than a friend of Denmark-Norway who had simply been baiting Denmark-Norway into a trap. Even France showed favorability to Hamburg while Brandenburg was seeking to reconcile Denmark-Norway. France wanted to assuage the fears of Germany ahead of any Franco-Austrian war while Brandenburg wanted to explore the possibility of extricating Denmark-Norway from its French partnership. Ultimately, Denmark-Norway chose Hesse-Kassel and Electoral Saxony as neutral mediators with France and Brandenburg respectively supporting the interests of Denmark-Norway and Hamburg. England was excluded from the mediation on the principle of its new alliance with Spain despite Prince George of Denmark being the son-in-law of James II. No one quite understood where England stood anymore.

Gottorp Castle, stolen from the Gottorps by Christian V, was ironically the seat of negotiations. Hamburg was reluctant to accept Gottorp as the mediation venue and also shied away from accepting the principle of compensation payments due to Denmark-Norway. However, Brandenburg’s eagerness for peace and reconciliation meant that Hamburg was forced to give way. Ultimately, France showed its worth as an ally when it proposed that Hamburg paid the 400,000 thalers that Christian V had demanded. This sum was reduced by 100,000 thalers for the damages caused by the Danish army during the siege, but the Danish claim of homage was again going to undergo legal examination. All in all, this agreement was surprisingly generous to Denmark-Norway given its military failures. As a result, Christian V granted both Elector Johann Georg III and his second son, Friedrich August, the Order of the Elephant as Christian V viewed them as responsible for the favorable conclusion. Even if negotiations for Hamburg ended in Christian V’s favor, the conflict allowed for the issue of Schleswig-Holstein to be revived. Even though Sweden, Celle, and Emperor Leopold were excluded from the Hamburg mediation, they began to vigorously discuss the issue of Schleswig-Holstein and the Gottorp exile. Although France and Brandenburg avoided involving that issue with the Hamburg mediation, it became clear that Schleswig-Holstein would also be something that Christian V would have to negotiate over.

Denmark-Norway’s unwanted attack and subsequent bungling of the siege of Hamburg hurt French strategic positioning. Denmark-Norway discredited itself by failing to take Hamburg and also Denmark-Norway brought Hamburg, Celle, and Brandenburg together. This both weakened French-aligned interests in the region and promoted German unity. Furthermore, by putting Brandenburg at odds with itself, Denmark-Norway disrupted the alliance system that France had built in the Baltic. For two French allies to squabble was detrimental to French power projection. Still, Brandenburg’s willingness to negotiate gave Louis XIV hope that Brandenburg still remained a friend of France. Meanwhile, the easy exclusion of Emperor Leopold, Spain, and Sweden from the Hamburg mediation served as evidence of Emperor Leopold’s continued distraction in Hungary, Spain’s unending military weakness, and Sweden’s unwillingness to act alone. The fact that the Dutch Republic had stayed entirely out of the Hamburg mess made Louis XIV think that bribes and interference in the Staten-Generaal were still keeping the Dutch from becoming an active and immediate threat to France. Louis XIV still believed that war with Emperor Leopold, William van Oranje, and the rest of Europe was inevitable. However, with the episode in Hamburg, Louis XIV also believed that his enemies remained unready for that war. But the episode also served to remind Louis XIV that he and his allies were not ready yet either. Denmark-Norway’s military had been completely ineffective and the French army was not ready to support Denmark-Norway. Louis XIV both felt as if he had the time and as if he needed the time to plan a meticulous war that would knock the German army out so quickly that it would have no choice but to accept the permanence of the Regensburg. The peace promised by Pope Innocent XI only reinforced Louis XIV’s belief in having time and enabled his patience to quietly plan a war. While Louvois organized supplies and planned further campaigns, Vauban worked on developing French fortifications along the periphery, and Marquis de Seignelay added to the navy’s size. Louis XIV himself began to speculate on ways he could break apart the League of Augsburg so that he might isolate Emperor Leopold and William van Oranje to face the weight of France’s military on their own.
 
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Great chapter.

And boy is louis making my blood boil with each passing chapter, always ready to ruin things when the habsburgs are finding their footing.
 
Man Louis is really shooting himself in the foot by basically alienating his allies as well as not noticing the strength of his enemies, this will cost him dearly when the time does come for war where he's basically surrounded and without allies to help him , so sorta like the Wars of the Reunion but he at least has the advantage of holding the fortress of Luxembourg as well as having an easy access towards the Dutch Republic and Spanish Netherlands.
 
Great chapter.

And boy is louis making my blood boil with each passing chapter, always ready to ruin things when the habsburgs are finding their footing.
Yep, man's screwing it up in the worst time because his enemies are putting aside their differences and his allies are rightfully angry at him, while he has more territory(including strategic ones like Luxembourg) and the French army is by no means weak, it will still come as a major slap in the face, especially for Louis, who will notice that they let themselves delude to the point everyone ganged up on them.
 
Yep, man's screwing it up in the worst time because his enemies are putting aside their differences and his allies are rightfully angry at him, while he has more territory(including strategic ones like Luxembourg) and the French army is by no means weak, it will still come as a major slap in the face, especially for Louis, who will notice that they let themselves delude to the point everyone ganged up on them.
Hopefully that self-delusion will be the sun king's sunset.
 
I don't know this period well enough to notice all the changes and whatnot, but I'm still loving this. Sometimes, even just an excellent narration of OTL can be enjoyable.
 
Damn, I was hoping for more Danish succes this update… At least Denmark-Norway still holds Gottorp and we got some fat cash from Hamburg, so it’s not all bad, but my heart longs for greater Danish success :’)
 
Interesting. So the Truce of Regensburg continues to hold. Though it seems like Louis is proceeding on the basis of some critical misapprehensions. It doesn't seem like the French have made any greater inroads in Germany that IOTL. Meanwhile the Austrians and Dutch are perhaps not as weak as he thinks. So it seems like a lot of Louis' assumptions could prove to be illusory when war finally breaks out, especially if the Truce holds longer than OTL and allows the Austrians to make more incremental but less singularly provocative gains in the east. I'm curious to see how the William and the Dutch fit into this evolving situation.
 
I love how this TL is evolving with hiw the political and dynastic balances are moving and how certain historical tendencies of the time are reinterpreted, notably the fight in the Balkans between the Ottomans and the Habsburg or the political and religious stakes of the English crown.

Of course, I am eager to see what well Spain is doing in the meantime.

I love how you depict Louis XIV's perspective of the situation. It is quite believable with how a man who is at the top (and without paranoid tendencies) and who mainly and only knew success won't see the growing issues he either created by his deeds and behavior (looking down allies you see more as pawns for example) or which resulted as a reaction to his previous successes (the reorganization of the military strength of the Austrians). The wake-up call will be rude and a cold shower is expected.
 
Austrians and Dutch are perhaps not as weak as he thinks. So it seems like a lot of Louis' assumptions could prove to be illusory when war finally breaks out, especially if the Truce holds longer than OTL and allows the Austrians to make more incremental but less singularly provocative gains in the east. I'm curious to see how the William and the Dutch fit into this evolving situation.
I mean the last chapter did begin with the French doing a doubletake on "are the Austrians actually strong" and then convincing themselves that they weren't and that it was instead the Electoral armies, which also ignores the fact that the electoral armies are following the Austrians anyways.
What's happening with Spain is it's military rebuilding and what's it's economy like?
Next chapter will focus a lot on the Anglo-Spanish alliance and what that means in two parts, America and Europe
It looks obvious to me that ITTL there will be no glorious Revolution, which Will leave us with and awful Stuart England; James II truly was and horrible human being even IOTL @Archduke
I don't think the divergences so far preclude a Glorious Revolution, or even if they preclude a Glorious Revolution, they certainly don't preclude the Orangist Conspiracy and Invasion. Currently, we see worse Anglo-Dutch relations than OTL at this juncture due to the heightened suspicion of Dutch involvement in Monmouth's rebellion. Anglo-Dutch relations can only get worse due to James II's Catholic tendencies. Tendencies which have every possibility to be stronger and worse than OTL. In OTL, James II was partners with the Dutch and French, both of whom were trying to restrain him in religious capacities. Even if the Spanish ambassador to England recognizes that England is not on the verge of returning to Catholicism, the vision in Madrid is significantly different. Spain is very much in favor of England falling back into the Catholic folds.

Domestically, James II probably feels even stronger. Although the Monmouthites got dangerously close to victory, their defeat is significantly harsher. Meanwhile, James II has a Catholic army on standby in the Spanish Netherlands. So James II will probably be even more confident than OTL. The Protestants at home have even more concerns. The ashes of Bristol aren't being forgotten anytime soon. Meanwhile, James II is flaunting Catholic officers even more than OTL because Roncherolles, a French Catholic, is the one who led him to victory. In OTL, Feversham was never loved but he was a Huguenot and never got attacked on questions of religion. Meanwhile, the Spanish alliance is bringing back bad memories to many.

Importantly, we have to look at the three main drivers of the Glorious Revolution. Group A) Dissatisfied English landowners, they are still 100% there. Many will become dissatisfied for the same reasons as OTL, objections to James II's Catholicism, autocratic tendencies, and just falling out of favor in court. Group B) Orangists, a thing that often gets overlooked is Willam's personal reasons for invasion. He wanted the crown, plain and simple. The Principality of Orange will always be precarious and William was very self-conscious about his titles and place in precedence. That isn't gone. The other big motivator for William was his desire to have full and complete English participation in the anti-French coalition. Neutrality was absolutely not enough for William (and he was proven valid in this opinion when even with tens of thousands of English soldiers, he still struggled against France in the Nine Years' War). Now Spain is trying to deliver on this account, but will James follow through? That's a big question, James doesn't want war and right now his only obligation is to defend Spain. If France attacks Germany, James has no obligation. And if France attacks Germany and Spain honors its alliance with Augsburg then is James still obligated? James might say no. Group C) The royal family, principal among them is Prince George. Princess Mary is following William and Princess Anne is following George, that's just their personalties. In OTL, Prince George's defection was followed by Princess Anne's, she was wholly devoted to George and followed him. The defection of Prince George and Princess Anne was massive because it both broke James II's remaining confidence and it gave critical legitimacy to the invasion. It's important to remember that before Prince George's defection, no more than a few hundred soldiers deserted James II's army. Churchill's defection was a day before George's and likely tied to it. But remember, Churchill wasn't the man who Prince William had ride right beside him into every town on the march to London. Prince George was a national favorite, he was the king's son-in-law, Prince William was a foreign ruler. Importantly, Prince George made his decision for his own reasons and they revolved protecting the Protestant faith in England. In defecting, he objectively defied his brother, who was strongly opposed to usurping James II (on the accord of divine right). Prince George will most likely still have these concerns about the Protestant faith.

So I think we still have every likelihood for James II to have problems at home. The main question is will William still act against him? Does William believe that James II will throw his full weight into a war against France? Because William is not going to accept anything less. It's important to remember that there were close to zero signs of England preparing for war against the Dutch in 1688, by most accounts England looked like it wanted to stay out of the war. Both James II and Parliament had minimal interest in fighting a continental war. The only document that purported English aggression against the Dutch was written and published by the Dutch. William needed the English army and navy to fight France. Will Spain deliver that? Or will William have to take matters into his own hands?
 
I mean the last chapter did begin with the French doing a doubletake on "are the Austrians actually strong" and then convincing themselves that they weren't and that it was instead the Electoral armies, which also ignores the fact that the electoral armies are following the Austrians anyways.

Next chapter will focus a lot on the Anglo-Spanish alliance and what that means in two parts, America and Europe

I don't think the divergences so far preclude a Glorious Revolution, or even if they preclude a Glorious Revolution, they certainly don't preclude the Orangist Conspiracy and Invasion. Currently, we see worse Anglo-Dutch relations than OTL at this juncture due to the heightened suspicion of Dutch involvement in Monmouth's rebellion. Anglo-Dutch relations can only get worse due to James II's Catholic tendencies. Tendencies which have every possibility to be stronger and worse than OTL. In OTL, James II was partners with the Dutch and French, both of whom were trying to restrain him in religious capacities. Even if the Spanish ambassador to England recognizes that England is not on the verge of returning to Catholicism, the vision in Madrid is significantly different. Spain is very much in favor of England falling back into the Catholic folds.

Domestically, James II probably feels even stronger. Although the Monmouthites got dangerously close to victory, their defeat is significantly harsher. Meanwhile, James II has a Catholic army on standby in the Spanish Netherlands. So James II will probably be even more confident than OTL. The Protestants at home have even more concerns. The ashes of Bristol aren't being forgotten anytime soon. Meanwhile, James II is flaunting Catholic officers even more than OTL because Roncherolles, a French Catholic, is the one who led him to victory. In OTL, Feversham was never loved but he was a Huguenot and never got attacked on questions of religion. Meanwhile, the Spanish alliance is bringing back bad memories to many.

Importantly, we have to look at the three main drivers of the Glorious Revolution. Group A) Dissatisfied English landowners, they are still 100% there. Many will become dissatisfied for the same reasons as OTL, objections to James II's Catholicism, autocratic tendencies, and just falling out of favor in court. Group B) Orangists, a thing that often gets overlooked is Willam's personal reasons for invasion. He wanted the crown, plain and simple. The Principality of Orange will always be precarious and William was very self-conscious about his titles and place in precedence. That isn't gone. The other big motivator for William was his desire to have full and complete English participation in the anti-French coalition. Neutrality was absolutely not enough for William (and he was proven valid in this opinion when even with tens of thousands of English soldiers, he still struggled against France in the Nine Years' War). Now Spain is trying to deliver on this account, but will James follow through? That's a big question, James doesn't want war and right now his only obligation is to defend Spain. If France attacks Germany, James has no obligation. And if France attacks Germany and Spain honors its alliance with Augsburg then is James still obligated? James might say no. Group C) The royal family, principal among them is Prince George. Princess Mary is following William and Princess Anne is following George, that's just their personalties. In OTL, Prince George's defection was followed by Princess Anne's, she was wholly devoted to George and followed him. The defection of Prince George and Princess Anne was massive because it both broke James II's remaining confidence and it gave critical legitimacy to the invasion. It's important to remember that before Prince George's defection, no more than a few hundred soldiers deserted James II's army. Churchill's defection was a day before George's and likely tied to it. But remember, Churchill wasn't the man who Prince William had ride right beside him into every town on the march to London. Prince George was a national favorite, he was the king's son-in-law, Prince William was a foreign ruler. Importantly, Prince George made his decision for his own reasons and they revolved protecting the Protestant faith in England. In defecting, he objectively defied his brother, who was strongly opposed to usurping James II (on the accord of divine right). Prince George will most likely still have these concerns about the Protestant faith.

So I think we still have every likelihood for James II to have problems at home. The main question is will William still act against him? Does William believe that James II will throw his full weight into a war against France? Because William is not going to accept anything less. It's important to remember that there were close to zero signs of England preparing for war against the Dutch in 1688, by most accounts England looked like it wanted to stay out of the war. Both James II and Parliament had minimal interest in fighting a continental war. The only document that purported English aggression against the Dutch was written and published by the Dutch. William needed the English army and navy to fight France. Will Spain deliver that? Or will William have to take matters into his own hands?
An excellent analysis.
I honestly Hope the glorious Revolution Is going to happen ITTL, mostly because, as I said, James II truly was an horrible human being IOTL already, and Is poised to be even worse ITTL.
Another question: did I misunderstand, or did Prinz Eugen die fighting the Turks ITTL?
 
An excellent analysis.
I honestly Hope the glorious Revolution Is going to happen ITTL, mostly because, as I said, James II truly was an horrible human being IOTL already, and Is poised to be even worse ITTL.
Another question: did I misunderstand, or did Prinz Eugen die fighting the Turks ITTL?
Eugene’s alive
 
I mean the last chapter did begin with the French doing a doubletake on "are the Austrians actually strong" and then convincing themselves that they weren't and that it was instead the Electoral armies, which also ignores the fact that the electoral armies are following the Austrians anyways.

Next chapter will focus a lot on the Anglo-Spanish alliance and what that means in two parts, America and Europe

I don't think the divergences so far preclude a Glorious Revolution, or even if they preclude a Glorious Revolution, they certainly don't preclude the Orangist Conspiracy and Invasion. Currently, we see worse Anglo-Dutch relations than OTL at this juncture due to the heightened suspicion of Dutch involvement in Monmouth's rebellion. Anglo-Dutch relations can only get worse due to James II's Catholic tendencies. Tendencies which have every possibility to be stronger and worse than OTL. In OTL, James II was partners with the Dutch and French, both of whom were trying to restrain him in religious capacities. Even if the Spanish ambassador to England recognizes that England is not on the verge of returning to Catholicism, the vision in Madrid is significantly different. Spain is very much in favor of England falling back into the Catholic folds.

Domestically, James II probably feels even stronger. Although the Monmouthites got dangerously close to victory, their defeat is significantly harsher. Meanwhile, James II has a Catholic army on standby in the Spanish Netherlands. So James II will probably be even more confident than OTL. The Protestants at home have even more concerns. The ashes of Bristol aren't being forgotten anytime soon. Meanwhile, James II is flaunting Catholic officers even more than OTL because Roncherolles, a French Catholic, is the one who led him to victory. In OTL, Feversham was never loved but he was a Huguenot and never got attacked on questions of religion. Meanwhile, the Spanish alliance is bringing back bad memories to many.

Importantly, we have to look at the three main drivers of the Glorious Revolution. Group A) Dissatisfied English landowners, they are still 100% there. Many will become dissatisfied for the same reasons as OTL, objections to James II's Catholicism, autocratic tendencies, and just falling out of favor in court. Group B) Orangists, a thing that often gets overlooked is Willam's personal reasons for invasion. He wanted the crown, plain and simple. The Principality of Orange will always be precarious and William was very self-conscious about his titles and place in precedence. That isn't gone. The other big motivator for William was his desire to have full and complete English participation in the anti-French coalition. Neutrality was absolutely not enough for William (and he was proven valid in this opinion when even with tens of thousands of English soldiers, he still struggled against France in the Nine Years' War). Now Spain is trying to deliver on this account, but will James follow through? That's a big question, James doesn't want war and right now his only obligation is to defend Spain. If France attacks Germany, James has no obligation. And if France attacks Germany and Spain honors its alliance with Augsburg then is James still obligated? James might say no. Group C) The royal family, principal among them is Prince George. Princess Mary is following William and Princess Anne is following George, that's just their personalties. In OTL, Prince George's defection was followed by Princess Anne's, she was wholly devoted to George and followed him. The defection of Prince George and Princess Anne was massive because it both broke James II's remaining confidence and it gave critical legitimacy to the invasion. It's important to remember that before Prince George's defection, no more than a few hundred soldiers deserted James II's army. Churchill's defection was a day before George's and likely tied to it. But remember, Churchill wasn't the man who Prince William had ride right beside him into every town on the march to London. Prince George was a national favorite, he was the king's son-in-law, Prince William was a foreign ruler. Importantly, Prince George made his decision for his own reasons and they revolved protecting the Protestant faith in England. In defecting, he objectively defied his brother, who was strongly opposed to usurping James II (on the accord of divine right). Prince George will most likely still have these concerns about the Protestant faith.

So I think we still have every likelihood for James II to have problems at home. The main question is will William still act against him? Does William believe that James II will throw his full weight into a war against France? Because William is not going to accept anything less. It's important to remember that there were close to zero signs of England preparing for war against the Dutch in 1688, by most accounts England looked like it wanted to stay out of the war. Both James II and Parliament had minimal interest in fighting a continental war. The only document that purported English aggression against the Dutch was written and published by the Dutch. William needed the English army and navy to fight France. Will Spain deliver that? Or will William have to take matters into his own hands?


guys because you assume that James will give his worst respect a Otl (certainly his desire to emulate his cousin Louis here will have increased a lot compared to Otl, because he feels more secure, also his desire to free Catholics from restrictions much more quickly and in greater numbers ( but apart from that he was not crazy, his plan was very similar to what Augustus II did a few years later to obtain the Polish throne without antagonizing the fervent Lutheran Saxons ( he will remove total control of the Anglican church by himself, maybe he will controlled by a group of senior prelates in exchange for greater decision-making freedom for himself and tolerance for Catholics ( perhaps to reassure the population I see him welcoming Protestant refugees from the continent ) certainly the conflicts that decreed his downfall Otl are all still there and can manifest themselves with more force depending on the foreign policy choices he will make, but giving him up and saying that England with him on the throne will be a nightmare, it seems to me a pure exaggeration ( from perfect old-fashioned Whigs propaganda, I think that's what they say )


sorry Archduke I'm not blaming you in particular ( I can't find any better term to explain myself from Italian to English forgive me ) ok ! , only with the pessimistic idea of James as ruler

anyway I can't wait for the Sun king to have his nasty surprise ( never underestimate the enemy dear Louis because otherwise the fall will hurt a lot 😇 )
 
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guys because you assume that James will give his worst respect a Otl (certainly his desire to emulate his cousin Louis here will have increased a lot compared to Otl, because he feels more secure, also his desire to free Catholics from restrictions much more quickly and in greater numbers ( but apart from that he was not crazy, his plan was very similar to what Augustus II did a few years later to obtain the Polish throne without antagonizing the fervent Lutheran Saxons ( he will remove total control of the Anglican church by himself, maybe he will controlled by a group of senior prelates in exchange for greater decision-making freedom for himself and tolerance for Catholics ( perhaps to reassure the population I see him welcoming Protestant refugees from the continent ) certainly the conflicts that decreed his downfall Otl are all still there and can manifest themselves with more force depending on the foreign policy choices he will make, but giving him up and saying that England with him on the throne will be a nightmare, it seems to me a pure exaggeration ( from perfect old-fashioned Whigs propaganda, I think that's what they say )


sorry Archduke I'm not blaming you in particular ( I can't find any better term to explain myself from Italian to English forgive me ) ok ! , only with the pessimistic idea of James as ruler

anyway I can't wait for the Sun king to have his nasty surprise ( never underestimate the enemy dear Louis because otherwise the fall will hurt a lot 😇 )
Totally understandable, no I agree that James II’s intent with regards to Catholicism was not pure evil. James II’s believed that if the penal laws were removed and that if It became safe to be a Catholic then England would re-Catholicize itself within a few years. James II was a true believer. He didn’t think he needed to force Catholicism on England, just that he had to force toleration on England. With toleration, the English would realize what they were missing and convert on their own. Where some of the more disagreeable parts of James II’s character arise are when that goal of toleration collided with the interests of Parliament and gentry. James II could not stand challenges to his authority. We saw this this when he managed Scotland, with the HMS Gloucester disaster, during the Rye House Conspiracy, the Monmouth Rebellion, with Rochester and Sunderland’s downfalls, with the Seven Bishops. James II had a very strong belief in divine right and did not react well to affronts against that right.

In this TL, James II is more sensitive to challenges because of the prolonged Monmouth Rebellion, but he’s also going to be more confident in retaliating to those challenges because had thoroughly Monmouth’s supporters were crushed and because he has the full support of Spain.
 
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Will Ireland stay Loyal to James as OTL if James Flee as OTL and will Spain send any troops to Ireland to help in TTL Williamite War in Ireland
 
Will Ireland stay Loyal to James as OTL if James Flee as OTL and will Spain send any troops to Ireland to help in TTL Williamite War in Ireland
Ireland would most likely stay loyal to James II if he is forced to flee. He is their Catholic king and up until he fled from Ireland, they loved him. Whether Spain would send soldiers is a big question. Because if William attacks James II then it becomes a question of if the Dutch have attacked England. Is Spain obliged to fight the Dutch? Could Spain turn this into just a William thing? How would the Dutch react to that? And so on, there would be a lot of questions that roll off.
 
Totally understandable, no I agree that James II’s intent with regards to Catholicism was not pure evil. James II’s believed that if the penal laws were removed and that if It became safe to be a Catholic then England would re-Catholicize itself within a few years. James II was a true believer. He didn’t think he needed to force Catholicism on England, just that he had to force toleration on England. With toleration, the English would realize what they were missing and convert on their own. Where some of the more disagreeable parts of James II’s character arise are when that goal of toleration collided with the interests of Parliament and gentry. James II could not stand challenges to his authority. We saw this this when he managed Scotland, with the HMS Gloucester disaster, during the Rye House Conspiracy, the Monmouth Rebellion, with Rochester and Sunderland’s downfalls, with the Seven Bishops. James II had a very strong belief in divine right and did not react well to affronts against that right.

In this TL, James II is more sensitive to challenges because of the prolonged Monmouth Rebellion, but he’s also going to be more confident in retaliating to those challenges because had thoroughly Monmouth’s supporters were crushed and because he has the full support of Spain.


exact let's say that James was perhaps very naive from the point of view of religion and also very convinced of the divine right of kings (normal thing for the time eh, after all Louis's "" absolutism "' was only the French equivalent of personal rule of Charles I of England, only much more successful, because we clearly state the concept of absolute monarchy is a false one, Louis could not do everything he wanted, because he had the Catholic church as possible opponents ( which as we know does not responds to the total control of the monarch, unlike the Protestant ones ) and above all the nobles ( so much so that you have to make them all come to court to remove them from their areas of power, be able to pit them against each other and finally control them ( so much for absolute power ) I argue that Frederick II of Prussia was much more absolutely in control of the state than the Sun King ( but everyone takes the latter as an example ) I am curious to see James use the Irish ( and non - Irish ) clergy to gain influence in Rome ( to match the Habsburgs and France, it would be an interesting development in my humble opinion eh )
 
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