Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

A ballpark estimation of 600t of supplies per division per day seems about right I believe...

It depends on the Division. For Normandy the WAllies planned on 700 tons per day for a Division in combat versus the Germans who were aiming for 200 tons per day. Are Greek divisions now equipped to WAllied standards in terms of fuel hungry lorries, tubes of artillery and general size or are they still equipped to their much less demanding TOE's of OTL 1940? I would assume the former as the lend lease tap has been running for quite some time meaning levels of motorisation and firepower will have been upgraded.
 
It depends on the Division. For Normandy the WAllies planned on 700 tons per day for a Division in combat versus the Germans who were aiming for 200 tons per day. Are Greek divisions now equipped to WAllied standards in terms of fuel hungry lorries, tubes of artillery and general size or are they still equipped to their much less demanding TOE's of OTL 1940? I would assume the former as the lend lease tap has been running for quite some time meaning levels of motorisation and firepower will have been upgraded.
By this point Allied forces in the Balkans are up on par with Western Allied divisions. There are some oddities in locally produced equipment but these are largely cosmetic by this point. For example the TTL Greeks in 1940 were license producing Schneider Mle1936 and Skoda vz30, both very respectable pieces in the same caliber with American guns. Come late 1943 it makes little to no difference if a Greek division has 36 vz30 or 36 American made M2A1s. Or if the average Greek infantryman has a Mannlicher rifle instead of an Enfield or a Garand...
 
Knowing the Arab nationalist movement and some of its opposition towards monarchies, I’m not convinced. Especially if the humiliation towards losing WWII only creates more resentment.
I mean the Iraqi monarchy lost WWII, not the Arabs as a whole. And it might develop towards a constitutional monarchy as a compromise between the republicans and the royalist that might pop up. I’m not say that a stable large Hashemite kingdom/country is destined to be. Particularly since it’s neighbors (Iran and Saudi Arabia come to mind) probably won’t appreciate such a large local power in areas they might see as there sphere of influence. But I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Arabs will get a rawer deal in this TTL.
 
I mean the Iraqi monarchy lost WWII, not the Arabs as a whole. And it might develop towards a constitutional monarchy as a compromise between the republicans and the royalist that might pop up. I’m not say that a stable large Hashemite kingdom/country is destined to be. Particularly since it’s neighbors (Iran and Saudi Arabia come to mind) probably won’t appreciate such a large local power in areas they might see as there sphere of influence. But I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that Arabs will get a rawer deal in this TTL.
No, but the Iraqi monarchy's decision to work with the Axis heavily is definitely going to weigh in on US and British foreign policy where they'll do what they can to ensure anyone ruling Iraq is strictly loyal to them. And this means trying to destroy the Arab nationalist movement. Also let's not forget Syria is definitely going to be landlocked, which will create a lot of resentment for sure.
 
No, but the Iraqi monarchy's decision to work with the Axis heavily is definitely going to weigh in on US and British foreign policy where they'll do what they can to ensure anyone ruling Iraq is strictly loyal to them. And this means trying to destroy the Arab nationalist movement. Also let's not forget Syria is definitely going to be landlocked, which will create a lot of resentment for sure.
His majesty king Abdullah is strictly loyal...
 
Part 134
South England. November 7th, 1943

The Guards Armoured Division start exchanging its Centaur tanks with newer Challengers, the older machines would be handled down to training units and allied formations.
The Centaur had proven the best British tank of the war so far, good enough for Britain to cease production of the rival Crusader design after 2,650 examples. A total of 14,407
vehicles had been built , 10,955 in Britain and 3,452 more in Canada. [1] But by now the design was reaching its limits as it could not be fitted with a more powerful gun than the 6 pounder introduced in the Centaur II. The Challenger, another design of Vickers Sir John Carden while based on the earlier Centaur was much heavier at 35 tons, had a 600 HP Meteor engine and had been designed from the start around Vickers 3in High Velocity gun, a derivative of the company's earlier anti-aircraft gun. The new gun while not nearly as powerful as the 17 Pounder anti-tank guns was still much better than the American 75mm and 76mm guns against tanks and just as good against infantry. As for getting a 17 pounder armed tank this would have to wait for the A41 design to complete development. Till then the 3in HV and the Challenger should suffice.

Athens, November 14th, 1943

Sunday passed quietly, or at least as quietly as possible for a country that just previous week had the anniversary of its third year in the war. The elections that normally would be taking place today had been postponed indefinitely. The decree extending the terms of both the half of the senate up for reelection and the parliament for six more months had been signed into law by president Themistoklis Sofoulis already. The Greek political class was not staying idle of course particularly within the Liberal party. George Kafandaris, the leader of the party and vice=premier was ill since late 1941 and had to be repeatedly hospitalized in the Evangelismos hospital. He still soldiered on but the party grandees were already jockeying for position with minister of foreign affairs Sophoklis Venizelos, Eleutherios son, the one most likely to succeed him in the party leadership.

London, November 15th, 1943

SHAEF was established under Dwight Eisenhower, to prepare the invasion of France. Field Marshal Richard O'Connor would be the land forces commander and closely work with Eisenhower.

Eleusis, November 16th, 1943

Konstantinos Karamanlis shook hands with Alec Isigonis for the photographer before the first Leon Mk.3 tank. Karamanlis after a successful run as minister of transport in 1941, under his watch the Greek transportation network had been restored and even expanded in the months after the German invasion. His reward for a difficult job well done had been another difficult job when he had been given the ministry of industry. With free Greece effectively in a state of siege and the Mediterranean closed to nearly all allied shipping making the utmost out of Greek industry had been imperative. Karamanlis even if his methods were not always optimal had nevertheless delivered results and his insistence of giving priority to the shipment of machine tools and farming tractors early on was bringing now dividends. The Leon tank was perhaps one of the best examples of the strengths and limitations of the Greek industry. Back before the war had start it had been planned for ELEO, the Greek automotive company created as an offshoot of Ford back in the late 1920s to build, Centaur tanks under license locally. The plan had fallen through when the war had start but Greece still desperately needed tanks in particularly after the fall of France so Isigonis, whose family had a stake in ELEO, had been brought from Britain to lead the effort. With most of ELEO's machinery being American made, courtesy of its Ford ancestry, the Greeks just like the Australians who faced the exact same problem a hemisphere apart, had based the lower hull and automotive parts of their tank on the M3 tank mating it with the upper hull derived from the Centaur and the locally made M1931 47mm AT gun as Leon Mk.1. Then when the M1931 had been replaced with the 6 pounder in production, Leon Mk.2 with the larger gun had followed. [3] With even the 6 pounder becoming inadequate, the Greeks had taken a page from the German book and turned the Bofors 75mm anti-aircraft gun they were license producing into a tank weapon for the Leon Mk.3. Ironically enough with a muzzle velocity of 850 m/sec the convenient expedient was nearly as good as the 17 pounder...

Tarawa, November 20th, 1943

A quartet of 40 year old Japanese 8-inch coastal guns opened fire on the invasion fleet only to be destroyed by return fire from USS Colorado and USS Maryland. The largest fleet seen in the Pacific war were invading the Gilbert islands with the US 2nd Marine Division landing in Tarawa and the 27th Infantry Division in Makin. Tarawa would be taken by the 23rd and Makin the next day. But the Japanese garrison of Tarawa would fight virtually down to the last man, only 17 soldiers would be taken prisoner out of more than 3,600 Japanese on the island and they would inflict over 3,100 casualties on the marines. The 1,200 Korean laborers on the island would be also decimated with only a tenth managing to surrender to the invading Americans. The battle for Makin would prove less costly with the army losing slightly over 200 men to capture it. American casualties would further increase when a Japanese submarine managed to slip through the American destroyer screen and sink the light carrier USS Monterey.

Newcastle upon Tyne, November 22nd, 1943


HMS Lion was finally launched. The huge battleship, at an expected 49,000t full displacement, she was the largest British battleship ever built was in construction since February 1939 and based on the original timetable she should already be in service since March. But construction had been halted after the war had begun, resumed, halted again in May 1940 then resumed again in November 1941. And thus it would take till late 1944 to complete the ship. But at least she would be completed. Construction of her sister HMS Temeraine remained frozen since April 1940...

Cairo, November 22nd, 1943

The Cairo conference between president Roosevelt, Churchill and Chiang Kai-shek begun, in anticipation of the coming conference in Tehran, in which the Chinese leader could not take part due to Stalin's refusal to meet with him. The Soviet Union was still neutral towards Japan and since she had to draw even more troops from the Far East to reinforce the Caucasus front all the more interested to avoid provoking the Japanese. Athens offered by the Greeks to host the conference instead had been rejected by both the British and the Americans. Churchill had visited Athens right before the conference for lengthy consultations with Dragoumis and Venizelos over the Balkans and Turkey but for prestige reasons wanted the conference to be held in territory under British control. Roosevelt wanted to avoid Athens in person, and with it Dragoumis and the exiled Yugoslav government before first meeting with Stalin. Instead Cordell Hull, the secretary of State had been sent over to Athens with promises of more Lend Lease, support of reasonable Greek demands, whatever that might mean, and the promise both Roosevelt and Churchill would be visiting Athens on their return from Tehran...

[1] Obviously no Valentine tank TTL and also no Ram tank for the Canadians.
[2] As in the Centaur, I would like to credit @allanpcameron for what the Carden influenced British tank designs would look like, Challenger is closely similar to his take of the Victor tank in his excellent TL.
[3] There will be no Ram tank but there will be Ram tank. :angel:
 
Instead Cordell Hull, the secretary of State had been sent over to Athens with promises of more Lend Lease, support of reasonable Greek demands, whatever that might mean
Well at least that clears everything up. Thank you so much for really making clear a direction that everyone is going with such a clear and concise overview of the allied position. /s

So now we know that unreasonable demands of Greece won't be met so at the very least we can cross off Roman restoration from the list of possible outcomes from this war. Now we get to spend the next few weeks parsing through the story and tickling out what "reasonable" demands are....how much fun we will all have!!
 
I really wonder now what position this puts Greece's short, unilaterally-declared control over Constantinople in the early days of their participation of the war. Is it reasonable to return the territory to their control? Unreasonable to acquiesce to the single-handed annexation of such an important area?

I feel like both sides can and will be argued, but then there's the question of what ELSE is going to be classified as "reasonable." What level of demilitarization and materiel repatriation? How generous of land grabs and reparation payments?

The other thing that strikes me is that, with Iran now an active cobelligerent (if with extremely high friction vis-a-vis Moscow), the Tehran Conference has additional leeway room to become quite spicy.
 
Leaving Cordell Hull, the “Father of the United Nations”, in Athens amidst all the discussion we just had about Greece and it’s place in them can’t be a coincidence can it? Sure he’s Secretary of State as well so it makes sense but that detail has to be some foreshadowing doesn’t it? Especially since Roosevelt tended to sideline Hull in favor of handling international diplomacy personally. He was at the third Moscow conference In Roosevelts stead but if I remember correctly Stalin and Churchill more or less had their own “real” discussion without him. Which doesn’t say much for his negotiating ability when it comes to stuff like this. Brilliant man when it came to building positive international relationships though, as shown by his “Good Neighbor” policy and creating the U.N.

As for the ATL Tehran conference, I think Stalin isn’t going to be nearly as happy with the results as he was OTL. He can’t with a straight face ask the Western Allies to open up another front when they already have an Italian front, a Balkans front, a Southeastern and Western Anatolian front, and a Japanese front. And if he does the Western Allies aren’t likely to agree to anything until atleast one of those fronts closes, with the Anatolian ones being the most likely to do so relatively soon. So while Operation Overlord may still take place it will likely be later at the very least.

The Western Allies are also unlikely to abandon the Chetniks for the Partisans in Yugoslavia, as they’ve been refocused on anti Nazi activities in TTL if I remember right. So abandoning them doesn’t make sense even though Roosevelt seems to be preemptively avoiding them.

Poland likely achieves a similar fate to OTL, with the possibility of them receiving the more pro Polish Curzon line plus maybe a little more depending on how the Western Allies feel with the leader of Free Poland not having died.

I imagine the only new item will be the discussion about Turkey’s fate. Which is going to be interesting. We’ve discussed to death what might happen so I won’t re tread it all here. And I don’t see Churchill letting Constantinople fall into Stalins hands no matter what.

What I’m interested to see is how Stalin reacts to the conference not particularly going his way. He very well might refuse to agree to declare war on Japan after the war with Germany is over since he’s not getting much of what he wants. Which means the Japanese keep the Kurils and Southern Sakhalin post war in all likelihood.
 
HMS Lion was finally launched. The huge battleship, at an expected 49,000t full displacement

So slightly smaller than Vanguard which was 51,000t full load but presumably more heavily armed with 9 16" guns. I'm guessing it's also slightly slower (28kt v 30kt) than Vanguard and basically just a King George V but scaled up to take 16" cannons.

support of reasonable Greek demands

Now that's scope for misinterpretations.
 
Very glad this TL is back!! I had started to get anxious..
A Greek tank is very nice to see. The Greek industry after the war is going to be really on a different level than OTL, obviously really, maybe even akin to Italian one but with a smaller local market and industrial input. So Greece is going to need that free trade to really capitalize on these gains fully.
What we haven't heard of in a while is anything on the Italian front. What is going on with the flipping of the Italian army and where are the lines drawn? Since the start of September we have no further information on how things are going on there.
 
Very glad this TL is back!! I had started to get anxious..
A Greek tank is very nice to see. The Greek industry after the war is going to be really on a different level than OTL, obviously really, maybe even akin to Italian one but with a smaller local market and industrial input. So Greece is going to need that free trade to really capitalize on these gains fully.
This!
For the Greek industry to thrive, Greece needs an open or friendly market in the Balkans (at keast Albania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia), some access to Turkey and the Arab world.
The later will be a challenge once (if) Israel is founded. On one hand TTL Greece has to stand by the US policy in the region, but on the other hand good relations with the Arabs are required for access to oil (for the Greek tankers too) and the Arab markets for exports.
 
I would argue the greek industry doesn't need the Balkans that much. Most of it is concentrated around ports - Attica, Smyrna, Thessaloniki. It would be cheaper to export goods via sea rather than rail. The example I have in mind for the Cold War greek industry is that of Italy. Cheap cars, scooters and focus on niches where Greece has a competitive advantage (aluminum, nickel, tomato canning etc). The big question will be electronics.
 
This!
For the Greek industry to thrive, Greece needs an open or friendly market in the Balkans (at keast Albania, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia), some access to Turkey and the Arab world.
The later will be a challenge once (if) Israel is founded. On one hand TTL Greece has to stand by the US policy in the region, but on the other hand good relations with the Arabs are required for access to oil (for the Greek tankers too) and the Arab markets for exports.

I would argue the greek industry doesn't need the Balkans that much. Most of it is concentrated around ports - Attica, Smyrna, Thessaloniki. It would be cheaper to export goods via sea rather than rail. The example I have in mind for the Cold War greek industry is that of Italy. Cheap cars, scooters and focus on niches where Greece has a competitive advantage (aluminum, nickel, tomato canning etc). The big question will be electronics.
I have to agree that while freight rail through the Balkans would be nice, it’s hardly a necessity. It’s hard to imagine but this Greece is likely going to be an even bigger maritime trade power than OTL being on both sides of the Aegean. That’s likely always going to be the most efficient and cheap way for all of her costal centers to import and export. It would only be important if the Greeks had any major population centers inland, for instance if the Greeks lost their minds and took Plovdiv from Bulgaria post war. Then rail would be significantly more important. But that’s not happening so it’s irrelevant.

As for the mention of potential future issues with Israeli ties, I’m not sure it’s going to be as big a deal in TTL. I don’t think the Arab league is likely to form ITTL, or at least not in the way it did OTL, and that’s going to drastically alter the response to Israel. The players are going to be to different, particularly if the Larger Hashemite kingdom is formed as I was hypothesizing a page or two back. There will be powers that oppose whatever side they choose out of their own self interest. So I think Greeko-Arab relations should be relatively fine in at least some countries in the Middle East, and I think anti Israel rhetoric may not be as ubiquitous as it is OTL.
 
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I would argue the greek industry doesn't need the Balkans that much. Most of it is concentrated around ports - Attica, Smyrna, Thessaloniki. It would be cheaper to export goods via sea rather than rail. The example I have in mind for the Cold War greek industry is that of Italy. Cheap cars, scooters and focus on niches where Greece has a competitive advantage (aluminum, nickel, tomato canning etc). The big question will be electronics.
Maybe, but transportation is not the main issue: competitiveness is especially at a time of high protectionism policies.
Greece IMO won't be able to export many industrial products to western and northern Europe, competing the industries of Germany, France and the UK.
It's more likely though to export them to the Balkans (provided some escape the Soviet hegemony), Turkey (under the same precondition and if their relations smooth out) and the Middle East.
And this includes armaments, at least for the countries which do not have contradicting intersts.
 
Greece IMO won't be able to export many industrial products to western and northern Europe, competing the industries of Germany, France and the UK.
It's more likely though to export them to the Balkans (provided some escape the Soviet hegemony), Turkey (under the same precondition and if their relations smooth out) and the Middle East.

The spanish economy was horribly mismanaged by Franco and yet the Spanish were able to export cars to Europe during the Cold War. In general, there is one actor that opens up markets and trade opportunities for Greece - the Americans. The American Order of the post-Bretton Woods era was simple enough: in return for strategic allignment, the Americans would keep the oceans safe for trade and promote free trade policies all around, even opening the vast american market.

Naturally, I doubt that the Greeks will sell cars to Americans. But they can sell cars to the Argentinians. They can sell canned tomatoes in New York where they will have to compete with San Maranzano tomatoes. If there is a greek Nokia equivalent, they can sell radios to Spanish and to Brazilians. Lastly, earlier industrialization and building infrastructure during the war, mean that when Europe rebuilds its steel industry it will be greek nickel and (with an Italian Caria annexation) chrome getting exported in large quantities.
 
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