What is a common thing or trope that always seem to happen?

One trope that seems destined to happen is the Iran Iraq war or rather it seems destined to always end the same way with a long grueling conflict that exhausts them both with pyric victories at best for the winner with the true victor being the status quo as we know it in the OTL occurring.
How about an Iran wank where the Republic goes the way of Revolutionary France, steamrolls Saddam and exports the revolution all across the Middle East? As I understand it, the Islamists were originally an extreme fringe of the revolution, and might not even come to power if the war goes very well for Iran. That could have huge implications for the entire post-Cold-War era.

Of course, a reason would need to be contrived for NATO (and the Soviets) to not just annihilate Iran in that case.
 
Yeah, people act about this like priests after hearing you saying "God is a lie".
Most priests I've met will at least stay civil when you say that.



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The idea that as many things as possible after the POD must be different. Even if we assume that events are random, you roll a dice 10 times you can still get 6 ten times in a row. So it is just as likely that somethings in an ATL will still happen the same as OTL.
 
How about an Iran wank where the Republic goes the way of Revolutionary France, steamrolls Saddam and exports the revolution all across the Middle East? As I understand it, the Islamists were originally an extreme fringe of the revolution, and might not even come to power if the war goes very well for Iran. That could have huge implications for the entire post-Cold-War era.

Of course, a reason would need to be contrived for NATO (and the Soviets) to not just annihilate Iran in that case.
We could resort to each believing that Iran will immediately turn against the other, allowing them to turn in support of Iran and against the rival. (The USA believes that Iran will attack the USSR, the USSR believes that Iran will attack the USA).

By the time they realize that Iran has no intention of doing that, they've become so entrenched that driving them out would be the kind of hellish campaign nobody wants to get into (especially since, if one attacks Iran, the other will immediately back them because " counterweight theory").
 
Is Look to the West using Rule of Cool e.g Houses burning down, the Societists’ improbable level of success to becoming an anti-nationalist hegemon on every continent[1], the Indian Jihad which conveniently results in Chinese/Corean/Russian/Persian India, etc. For Maximium divergences, too much?
[1] The Malay archipelago is a continent here
 
Most priests I've met will at least stay civil when you say that.



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The idea that as many things as possible after the POD must be different. Even if we assume that events are random, you roll a dice 10 times you can still get 6 ten times in a row. So it is just as likely that somethings in an ATL will still happen the same as OTL.
Ah yes, butterfly massacre, a classic. People seems to can't understand there's no need to choose only between the two extremes "ALL IS DIFFERENT" or "EVERYTHING IS THE SAME".
 
It's those kinds of things that make me wonder at what point did anyone think that globalizing the economy/adopting the "economy first and foremost, everything else can and should be ignored" model was a good idea.
I've saying this since highschool. And I've been called almost everything under the sun, by everyone, for it too.
The issue is that it wasn't a conscious choice. The market must expand exponentially to cope with the falling rate of profit (physics be damned!), so it just devolved into game theory, with tiny cogs in the machine making the only choice they could logically make to maintain the bottom line. I've come around to the idea that the market, like the political system*, is something between an eldritch abomination and an egregore,— it's vast, not conscious or truly knowable, and has the nasty tendency to drag everyone in its wake as it just mindlessly writhes around. The idea that individuals have any meaningful input or influence on either is the most dangerous delusion of the modern world, since it's essentially a Hobbesian Leviathan where each of the faces thinks the thing is working at their will and in their interest.


*Since no matter what any respectable person thinks economics is sociology not hard science!
 
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The issue is that it wasn't a conscious choice. The market must expand exponentially to cope with the falling rate of profit (physics be damned!), so it just devolved into game theory, with tiny cogs in the machine making the only choice they could logically make to maintain the bottom line. I've come around to the idea that the market, like the political system*, is something between an eldritch abomination and an egregore,— it's vast, not conscious or truly knowable, and has the nasty tendency to drag everyone in its wake as it just mindlessly writhes around. The idea that individuals have any meaningful input or influence on either is the most dangerous delusion of the modern world, since it's essentially a Hobbesian Leviathan where each of the faces thinks the thing is working at their will and in their interest.


*Since no matter what any respectable person thinks economics is sociology not hard science!
O I know the logical reasonings, it just always makes me sad with how far people can go before common sense kicks in, and even when they pass that point they virulently defend it just so they don't have to live with the idea that they were wrong. 😞
 
O I know the logical reasonings, it just always makes me sad with how far people can go before common sense kicks in, and even when they pass that point they virulently defend it just so they don't have to live with the idea that they were wrong. 😞
Common sense is a myth, in my experience it's neither common nor sensible in the average person 😂
 
How about an Iran wank where the Republic goes the way of Revolutionary France, steamrolls Saddam and exports the revolution all across the Middle East? As I understand it, the Islamists were originally an extreme fringe of the revolution, and might not even come to power if the war goes very well for Iran. That could have huge implications for the entire post-Cold-War era.

Of course, a reason would need to be contrived for NATO (and the Soviets) to not just annihilate Iran in that case.
The Islamists that Ayatollah Khomeini had under his control where a surprising minority in Iran at the beginning of the revolution, this would increase overtime as they came flooding from aboard and absorbed other groups, the thing is well Iran is Islamic majority and combination of factors like a massive PR campaign, some choices that really affected the world (Like Iran's previous hostility to Iraq and helping destabilize Afghanistan) and a general siege factor really helped cement it, Like Khomeini dying off say a bad illness prior or during it would very well shift the direction it goes.

That said it would not be a paradise Iran probably would have some excesses as the Shia's asserted themselves (understandable given they've been feeling oppressed under the Shah but also against other faiths) and Iran's revolutionaries while definitely a lot of them are less authoritarian and fanatical than the Ayatollah will be cracking down and reasserting order for a bit. The civil wars and beating down of all separatists and other rebels lasted till like 1983, a lot of which was supported by population and military not wanting their state to collapse or Persian dominance to go away.

Though yeah a revolutionary wave across the middle east supported by coalition/mixed party Iran would be very interesting timeline and I imagine the monarchies might be far more terrified in that scenario if it's going all France.
 
Immensely warmongering countries that are constantly attacking others for such stupid "reasons" as "showing strength", "not losing face" and "not appearing weak".

At the same time, if a country loses a war, it is more likely to decide to attack another neighbor to "show strength" than if it wins the war and has to digest its gains.

The attempts to "show strength" ever implies attacking a country much weak and defenseless than the attacker. But the entire world treats this as a good "evidence of strength".

For some reason, none of the neighbors feels threatened by having a country next door that could attack them at any moment no matter what.

Likewise, the population of this country will be even more warmongering and will support each and every one of the wars that this country starts.

(Except when fighting the Protagonist Nation, at which point they'll panic and start surrendering en masse to the first soldier they see.)
 
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Immensely warmongering countries that are constantly attacking others for such stupid "reasons" as "showing strength", "not losing face" and "not appearing weak".
This is more or less accurate depending on time period. Some states, like the Turko-Mongol Khanates of the Eurasian steppe, need to be at war basically all the time, in order to acquire the ressources needed to maintain a strong defense. If you do a lot of raiding, you have a lot of wealth to pass around to your men, which means you attract a lot of fighters, which paradoxically means you have more manpower (and are thus safer) than if you were peaceful. These systems tend to be very good at inventing reasons to go to war.

Only relatively recently has industrialized warfare introduced the idea that constant warfare is overall detrimental to a nation. This is because modern wars are orders of magnitudes more destructive than premodern ones.
 
"Population is a resource"

"We need to bring millions of immigrants to our country to keep the economy going. And by 'need' I mean 'we should actively recruit people from other countries to come and live in ours'. Fortunately, none of the governments of the other countries will be suspicious of our recruiters at all. Nor will they try to impede your recruiting work.

"We must focus all our efforts as a nation on depending on international trade for our survival"

"Any alternative to implementing the economic globalization and just-in-time economics as soon as possible is economic suicide and must be nipped in the bud"

"Any motivation and argument that is not directly related to the economy can and should be ignored: outside nationalism, religion, culture and everything that cannot be expressed in monetary units. Fuck off about what people will think about this"

"People will give up their traditions and beliefs if you only talk them about how all of this is against economic logic"

"The best form of economic regulation is that there is no regulation at all"

"We must prioritize the economy first and ignore everything else"

"Everything is an addition game zero in which every dollar our neighbor earns is a dollar we lose,"

"Slavery should be abolished solely because it is uneconomical, and the only way we will care about the debate about its immorality is to use it as an excuse to get the population to accept this decision,"

"We really shouldn't have colonies, but this is because they're uneconomical and cost more than profit. Fuck prestige, fuck morality, and fuck that means everyone else can colonize all they want."

All of which will sound like utter insanity, if not delusions completely out of touch with reality, to virtually any political leader living in 1914 or earlier.

No, not all of that would sound like utter insanity. It really seems you have an ideological axe to grind about capitalism and markets. And engaging in the trope of thinking people in the past were extremely stupid, and not humans like us making a reasonable job with the information and ideological heuristics they had available.

Yes, people did understand population and migration were a resource. Potsdam Edict ring a bell. Or the Ottomans accepting the Jews and Moriscos. Or all the Eastern European leaders who invited German settlers in, from Hungary to Russia. The Romans, the Inca, the Chinese, and lots of other Empires engaged in population movement projects.

People as a resource is literally the foundation of serf and slave economies, which were designed around controlling the population.

Yes, some people did focus on international trade as a matter of survival. The Dutch Republic fought the Spanish, had a massive percentage of its male population in the army and navy, and carved out a world-spanning commercial empire all at the same time, in order to fund the mercenaries, arms, and other measures and even subsidies to other powers to fend off the Habsburgs. And they did so as strong proponents of free trade.

Other nations, of course, had silly ideas about trade, like believing in fixed values for goods and so merchants provided no value.

"Everything is an addition game zero in which every dollar our neighbor earns is a dollar we lose,"

Thats, not a position any economist would endorse. That's literally old-time mercantilism. That's the old-time ideas that you're defending.

Lots of people in the past, did point out that colonies were economic deadweights and that slavery imposed broad costs on society that make it a dead loss. These are all arguments that abolitionists and anti-imperialists made back then. And they were entirely correct.

Also, it's very weird that you are saying that the anti-imperialists are the ones saying fuck morality? Which of the colonial powers were the moral ones again?


Yes, the past did have bad economic ideas. Most of them were ferocious gold bugs, didn't reinvest capital and had terrible human development plans. But you are stretching it to absurdity and have terrible examples.

Do not forget either the extremely fragile supply chain, which means that as long as there are delays, not just days, but HOURS, the chain reaction can end up completely pulverizing the economy and society of a country.

And the solution to that is... do nothing and pray that there are no such problems. Why, you probably say? Simply because someone believes that strengthening the supply chain is "very expensive".

It's those kinds of things that make me wonder at what point did anyone think that globalizing the economy/adopting the "economy first and foremost, everything else can and should be ignored" model was a good idea.

Economic systems always involve tradeoffs. That's just a fact, and anybody preaching a utopian vision without a detailed evidenced-based plan is selling you bullshit.

We've seen in action economies that step back from free trade. And their economies falter hard. Thats why people think its a good model. And that's why people want to move further than free movement of capital and goods and allow free trade of people. Recent human history, which has seen these openings, has seen the greatest economic growth in human history, which has lifted billions from poverty.

Strengthing supply chains is something you can do. But yeah, it does involve costs. Maybe those costs are less than the benefits. Buts it's a calculus you have to make.


The issue is that it wasn't a conscious choice. The market must expand exponentially to cope with the falling rate of profit (physics be damned!), so it just devolved into game theory, with tiny cogs in the machine making the only choice they could logically make to maintain the bottom line. I've come around to the idea that the market, like the political system*, is something between an eldritch abomination and an egregore,— it's vast, not conscious or truly knowable, and has the nasty tendency to drag everyone in its wake as it just mindlessly writhes around. The idea that individuals have any meaningful input or influence on either is the most dangerous delusion of the modern world, since it's essentially a Hobbesian Leviathan where each of the faces thinks the thing is working at their will and in their interest.


*Since no matter what any respectable person thinks economics is sociology not hard science!

I'd advise you to actually read Marx because this is some nonsense degrowth. Marx was a big believer in technological and productive measures that increase aggregate production. You seem to be taking more ideological inspiration from Malthus.

Economic growth and the use of resources are not tightly coupled. Economies around the world have sharply cut emissions, while still increasing their economic output. In other metrics, the US produces more industrial products than it has previously, but with both fewer workers relative to the broader economy and fewer workers absolutely

Bringing up physics is nonsense. We have access to vast amounts of energy and resources, it's really just a matter of accessing them. More energy than all of the human civilisation hits the earth from the sun. Gravity keeps windpower going. Vast geothermal power is below our feet. All can be tapped with current tech.

We've also greatly increased electrical efficiency and made devices much smaller. Computers the size of rooms couldn't muster the computing power of the cheapest devices in our pockets. It's a massive reduction in materials.

And with the rate of progression, we will get access to space minerals, sooner or later.
 
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This is more or less accurate depending on time period. Some states, like the Turko-Mongol Khanates of the Eurasian steppe, need to be at war basically all the time, in order to acquire the ressources needed to maintain a strong defense. If you do a lot of raiding, you have a lot of wealth to pass around to your men, which means you attract a lot of fighters, which paradoxically means you have more manpower (and are thus safer) than if you were peaceful. These systems tend to be very good at inventing reasons to go to war.

Only relatively recently has industrialized warfare introduced the idea that constant warfare is overall detrimental to a nation. This is because modern wars are orders of magnitudes more destructive than premodern ones.
But it is equally true that these are an atypical format of state that was more focused on war and the mandate of "hard men who make difficult decisions" than the more common ones.

In this case I was thinking more about doing that with states from the 16th to 21st centuries that are more institutionalized than oriented to the idea of "you do what the guy with the biggest stick says."

(European or Chinese-style absolute monarchies, which meet that definition of "you do what a guy with a stick says," also had bureaucracies and written laws that guaranteed some continuity of rule.)
 
Lots of people in the past, did point out that colonies were economic deadweights and that slavery imposed broad costs on society that make it a dead loss. These are all arguments that abolitionists and anti-imperialists made back then. And they were entirely correct.

Also, it's very weird that you are saying that the anti-imperialists are the ones saying fuck morality? Which of the colonial powers were the moral ones again?

I feel like you are misunderstanding Mithriades' complaint.

Yes, of course the economic argument against colonialism/slavery is correct.
And true, proponents of slavery/colonialism are not moral.

What he means by "fuck morality" is the use of economic arguments instead of moral arguments.

Y'know "slavery is bad because you pay more for upkeep of slaves compared to upkeep of workers/machines, and therefore have less profit" rather than "slavery is bad because blacks are people too and people shouldn't be property".
 
I feel like you are misunderstanding Mithriades' complaint.

Yes, of course the economic argument against colonialism/slavery is correct.
And true, proponents of slavery/colonialism are not moral.

What he means by "fuck morality" is the use of economic arguments instead of moral arguments.

Y'know "slavery is bad because you pay more for upkeep of slaves compared to upkeep of workers/machines, and therefore have less profit" rather than "slavery is bad because blacks are people too and people shouldn't be property".
Exactly that, but I suppose it was easier and more fun to try to poison the well by inventing support for slavery that doesn't exist, neither implicit nor explicit.

Basically the criticism was towards the fact that too often the focus is placed on the argument "slavery is uneconomical". To a point where looks like the abolitionist characters treat the fact "slavery is immoral" as if it's just a slogan they don't even believe themselves, but use because it's useful to manipulate people into supporting abolitionism.

Which has the unintended effect of making the abolitionist characters look like hypocrites who are only using "slavery is immoral" as a stick to claim moral superiority, but would happily support slavery if it were economically viable.

I say "unintended" because usually someone who writes focusing on achieving abolitionism does so because he knows and believes that enslaving people is evil and immoral (as in fact is). And author wants his characters to share this belief. Not want them looking like not believers in "slavery must be abolished, NOW".
 
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Yes, some people did focus on international trade as a matter of survival. The Dutch Republic fought the Spanish, had a massive percentage of its male population in the army and navy, and carved out a world-spanning commercial empire all at the same time, in order to fund the mercenaries, arms, and other measures and even subsidies to other powers to fend off the Habsburgs. And they did so as strong proponents of free trade.
The Dutch weren't proponents of free trade. They were proponents of "we can buy and sell what we want, and no one else". The Netherlands endeavored for three centuries to systematically crush the Spanish and Portuguese trading systems, as well as the independent economies of every place they ever went. In the history of mankind, no group has ever wanted free trade. Every economic power ultimately seeks to crush all others: nations and corporations alike desire the monopoly above all else.

What hides behind the mask of free trade is imperialism.

Other nations, of course, had silly ideas about trade, like believing in fixed values for goods and so merchants provided no value.
Other nations wanted to avoid being economically dominated by Dutch imperialism, which you generally do by protecting the domestic market. I.e. you disallow foreign imports and labor from outcompeting your domestic production by fixing prices on both and limiting the number of imports. This is perfectly sound economically and employed by all of the western economic powers today.

We've seen in action economies that step back from free trade. And their economies falter hard. Thats why people think its a good model. And that's why people want to move further than free movement of capital and goods and allow free trade of people. Recent human history, which has seen these openings, has seen the greatest economic growth in human history, which has lifted billions from poverty.
Economies that step back from free trade want to, as we have established, protect their own people from exploitation (at least by a group that rivals the local elite). These economies are starved hard by those who hold the most power in the international economic system. They are systematically deprived of the means to survive by aggressive embargoes that aim to force open the domestic market unconditionally.

Lifting billions from poverty hasn't happened. Rather, billions have been born into a poverty that would not have existed if not for the current economic system. Some were lifted out of this, but at the cost of servitude to capitalism.

You do not trade people. Humans are not a commodity; they cannot be owned. Do not use that language.

Economies around the world have sharply cut emissions, while still increasing their economic output.
The cuts in emissions are not sufficient to balance out the massive ecological devastation caused by modern industry. An industry that stands poised to annihilate the global ecosphere. Which will very rudely remind us that we do, in fact, need to eat.

Besides, the wish for eternal growth and existence is sociopathic towards everything else alife.
 
Uh what? I stopped reading Look to the West at around volume 3. Can you elobrate on what the hell went on here?
The Durrani Neo-Mughal Empire decayed and Faruq Kalam waged a jihad initially with the backing of the Emperor to expel the Ferengi (French, British, Portuguese colonies on the coast) but eventually the Jihad turned back on the empire and destroyed it, creating the “Aryan” Void into which the new empires moved
 
Im curious as well, whats that about?
I mean I already thought the south american situation was weird but I never heard of that
As of 1930 the Combine has expanded into Carolina and the Carribean, a large part of Central Africa as far as Darfur and *Uganda from former Brazilian Angola, and Indonesia minus Sumatra, and will eventually expand into Andhra Pradesh - India and the Cape Republic.
Much of the region of expansion was the former sphere of influence of the UPSA, its predecessor

It is also backing semi democratic Societist Danubia and one faction in the Ottoman Civil War.
 
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