Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

[GSD310]

I knew eventually there would be a "If not F-16s then what will the Air Force get?" discussion .

but if US doesnt want Indonesia to be too strong, im sure UK is on the same page.

Correct. The US and the UK's attitude to Indonesia is pretty much "You're useful, but you haven't been getting along with our friend Australia and we don't want to be put in an awkward position in case something happens between the two of you".

In ITTL US's defense though, after 9/11, they had given Indonesia a debt moratorium, helped get Freeport to start to get moving on its divestment of shares to Indonesia, secured FAA certification for Indonesia's N-250, and 4 Kidd-Class submarines. There is an argument to be made from the POV that Indonesia has benefitted enough from the United States already.

 

[Gillan1220]

I knew eventually there would be a "If not F-16s then what will the Air Force get?" discussion .



Correct. The US and the UK's attitude to Indonesia is pretty much "You're useful, but you haven't been getting along with our friend Australia and we don't want to be put in an awkward position in case something happens between the two of you".

In ITTL US's defense though, after 9/11, they had given Indonesia a debt moratorium, helped get Freeport to start to get moving on its divestment of shares to Indonesia, secured FAA certification for Indonesia's N-250, and 4 Kidd-Class submarines. There is an argument to be made from the POV that Indonesia has benefitted enough from the United States already.

If Indonesia is benefiting from the U.S., what about nearby Philippines? I'm guessing it's gonna be like OTL where the Armed Forces are stagnant and outdated. In OTL 2002, the F-5 was the primary fighter jet but a crash in May of that year caused all of them to be grounded before being retired in 2005. From 2005 to 2015, the Philippine Air Force was an air force without jets. The skies above the archipelago were naked and defenseless.

 

[GSD310]

25th October 2002:
The Presidential Airplane landed around mid-afternoon at Los Cabos International Airport, Los Cabos, Baja California, Mexico. From the airport, President Try Sutrisno immediately paid his respects to President of Mexico Vicente Fox at the Los Cabos Golf Resort. Try shook hands with Fox, had a photo-op but there was only time for a small chit-chat about the weather before Try retreated to his hotel.

Late afternoon, and culminating with dinner at his suite, Try hosted Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, and Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai. The first thing they discussed was the upcoming ASEAN Summit and AFTA. Try said that he would safe the proposal that he will present to the summit at the actual summit. Instead he focused on giving the other three leaders understanding that the resumption of AFTA would apply for all ASEAN members. Try thanked Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Laos for standing with Indonesia all this time but asked for their understanding.

“We get it, Mr. President, better 10 vs. 1 rather than 5 vs. 1, right?” asked Estrada “Though I don’t know whether this automatically means Singapore and Brunei much less Malaysia and Cambodia will side with us. Myanmar’s probably a lost cause considering Shwe Mann is in Indonesia.”

That was the topic Thaksin wanted to speak about. Thaksin said that he was at Singapore before he flew to Mexico and said that Singapore was still non-commital about where it stood. Khai expressed his frustration but Thaksin expressed his belief that Singapore and Brunei will remain impartial for as long as possible saying that this was the way they can continue to have leverage over ASEAN.

“If Singapore and Brunei remain impartial for as long as possible, what would need to happen for us to have six in our bloc instead of five?” asked Try.

“There needs to be a change of government in either Cambodia or Malaysia”, explained Thaksin.

26th October 2002:
Fox looked very pleased with himself as the APEC Summit is officially declared open. As the leaders took turn making speeches, there was nothing noteworthy about the speeches though Try noted that Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin made comment that APEC member nations should not favor one trade agreement over another “especially when they have benefitted from the present economic environment”; a subtle warning at Try’s intention to prioritize AFTA.

But the summit itself would be noteworthy though not for reasons to the host’s liking due to events in Montenegro. The Montenegrin Presidential Election was being contested that day by incumbent President Milo Dukanovic and Prime Minister of Yugoslavia Momir Bulatovic; a rematch from the previous election. The Summit was still in the middle of speeches when news arrived first, that Dukanovic had declared victory and then later that Bulatovic had declared victory as well.

After lunchtime, President of the United States John McCain, Paul Martin, and Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello disappeared into one room while President of Russia Yevgeny Primakov and President of China Jiang Zemin declared another. Fox was patient enough to allow for a two hour delay, but looked distraught when he saw on the resort’s television that President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic demanded a recount and urged Bulatovic not to concede until there is a definite result. Almost on cue, officials from the American, Australian, Canadian, Russian, and Chinese delegations told Fox that their leaders were going to take longer.

Fox decided to suspend the plenary session and the leaders took advantage of the time to carry on meetings though for the moment all meetings with the American, Australian, Canadian, Russian, and Chinese were off the table. Try was no different. Taking Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat with him, Try went around meeting various leaders:

*Try had a three-way meeting with Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong (accompanied by Minister for Foreign Affairs Teo Chee Hean) and Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah (accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Mohamed Bolkiah). Goh and Bolkiah heard and accepted Try’s explanation that the official proposal for the resumption for AFTA will be saved for the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. Next it was Goh’s turn to say he wanted to “safe things” for the ASEAN Summit when the discussion turned to the ASEAN Secretary General’s position and that it was Singapore’s turn to put forward a nominee.

Goh left first while Bolkiah stuck around with Try to chat. Bolkiah let slip that he had purchased 3 ships from the United Kingdom, the ships had been completed, but that ultimately he was not pleased with it. He asked whether Indonesia would be interested in them considering its “appetite for such purchases”.

*With Ginandjar acting as interpreter Try met with Prime Minister of Japan Yukio Hatoyama and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ichiro Ozawa. Hatoyama guaranteed that any agreement signed with the LDP prime ministers will be honored out of respect for Japan and Indonesia’s longstanding relations. Hatoyama explained to Try that his government’s aim is for an Asia first foreign policy and that this will involve building good relationships with all nations in Asia including with China.

“I’m not in a position to stop you choosing to have good relations with, Mr. Prime Minister”, said Try “It is certainly up to each respective nations to decide who to have good relations with.”

*Though a Western democracy, New Zealand did not find itself a part of the United States, Canada, and Australia’s war council. Thus it was that Try got some time meeting with Prime Minister of New Zealand Helen Clark and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Justice Phil Goff. It became a conversation where Ginandjar primarily talked for the Indonesian side, Try having switched off when Clark that New Zealand will, even after Portugal restored diplomatic relations, voice its concerns about East Timor if a “situation was to develop”.

“I don’t get the part where she’s harboring Jose Ramos Horta but she’s the one that gets to lecture us”, muttered Edi at the conclusion of the meeting.

*There was facetime with President of Taiwan James Soong though Taiwan attended the summit as Chinese Taipei. Amidst agreeing that a Taiwan delegation will come to Indonesia seeking to invest in the food and beverage sector, Try tried to guide the topic to geopolitics. Try made mention of Costa Rica’s significance in Central America and wondered what Taiwan about its decision to cease recognizing Taiwan and begin recognizing China. Immediately, Soong became defensive.

“I believe that Taiwan’s interest is best served by having great economic relations with the People’s Republic of China”, he declared when Try had not said anything about why Taiwan had drifted closer to China in recent years.

“How long until the next Taiwanese Elections?” asked Try when the meeting with Soong was finished “I’m not expecting them to declare independence or anything but I sure hope they’d keep their Big Cousin across the strait busy and they can’t even do that with this guy at its head.”

27th October 2002:
Though the morning began with a group photograph with the leaders wearing Guayabera Shirts, it was clear that something of a tense atmosphere had descended on the summit. In separate press conferences, the United States, Canada, and Australia made it clear that their sympathies were with Dukanovic. Russia and China’s leanings were with Bulatovic and by extension with Milosevic. Both sides agreeing after meeting with each other that morning, that the election in Montenegro must be decided peacefully and that opportunity must be given for the votes to be counted first.

Try joined a third press conference led by Fox, President of Chile Ricardo Lagos, President South Korea Kim Dae Jung and other leaders except for Taiwan and Hong Kong. These leaders issued a statement, the closest thing to a communique, calling for “international developments to be solved peacefully so as to create a peaceful environment to carry out economic development, facilitate growth, and increase living standards around the world”.

It was on that note, an international crisis developing involving the United States, that APEC ended. Around the summit there were grumblings about how meetings with McCain or Primakov had to be scratched off the agenda because the situation in Montenegro took away their focus from the summit. No such grumblings existed in the Indonesian delegation seeing as Try had met with McCain and Primakov recently.

The grumblings in the Indonesian delegation came about the Australians rather than the Americans and the Russians. Try had been looking forward to meeting with Costello but when the news from Montenegro spread, Edi was first told that the meeting with Costello had to be rescheduled and then that Costello will seek to meet with Try at the “next available opportunity”. The Australian delegation themselves had been one of the first to leave, their itinerary taking them to Washington DC no doubt to talk about recent developments.

“If it was not a snub then it’s at the very least proof that they don’t take you seriously enough, Mr. President”, said Edi to Try as everyone was packing around them.

The final appointment before the Indonesian delegation departed was with Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea Mekere Morauta who was accompanied by the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Immigration Bart Philemon who came to the hotel Try was staying at.

The first order of business was easy enough, Try agreed that the aid to be given to roads in Papua New Guinea’s Western Province be made available in the next Indonesian Budget so that the works could begin as soon as possible. Morauta said that as part of his plan to put more emphasis on economic development in his country, he will be decreasing the size of the Papua New Guinea Defence Forces (PNGDF) and offer the ex-soldiers with the first opportunity to work on infrastructure projects. Try heartily agreed with this idea of converting soldiers into laborers.

The conversation moved on to other things. Morauta spoke of the Pacific Islands’ Forum’s meeting on the Solomon Islands which was held in September. He said that Australia has gotten what it requested for: more assistance from the rest of Oceania in the intervention in the Solomon Islands.

“Did they end up putting pressure on Papua New Guinea to contribute more troops, Mr. Prime Minister?” asked Try.

“Surprisingly no, Mr. President”, replied Morauta “There was no shortage of enthusiasm to contribute troops. Vanuatu, Kiribati, Nauru, Tonga, Tuvalu, Cook Islands…our personnel was thankfully not required.”

“Fiji or Palau?” asked Edi.

“Well, no Fiji or Palau”, said Morauta “The nations I mentioned, their leaders came as a delegation and volunteered and at that point, the Australians felt they already had enough from the nations mentioned above.”

The conversation ended not long after that. After Morauta, Philemon and their aides said their farewell Try and Ginandjar began their discussion.

“No Fiji or Palau”, said Try “But then they’ve got all these nations which are not friendly towards us or are known to be sympathetic to the OPM or both.”

“You’re trying to imply the Australians deliberately picked Oceania nations which are hostile towards us over those which are friendly towards us, Mr. President?” asked Ginandjar “I will look for an opportunity when you and Prime Minister Costello might sit down and have a chat. Perhaps talking directly will help to sort things out.”

“You do that, Mr. Minister of Foreign Affairs” replied Try “In the meantime I’ll stick to what it looks like from my point of view: this Kangaroo kasak-kusuk bullshit is becoming a distraction."

---
The events of Montenegro will be the beginning of something that will be in the TL’s background as far as international developments are concerned.

I admit that the whole thing where the US and its allies as well as Russia and China having their own meetings is based on the events in the OTL G20 when the US and the NATO G20 members start to have their own meeting when the Russian missile hit the building in Poland and Jokowi is left waiting for a few hours at a grove. Though perhaps what happened to Fox is a little bit more extreme.

The three ships Bolkiah is talking about is the OTL Bung Tomo Class Corvettes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bung_Tomo-class_corvette) which was bought by the OTL Indonesian Navy. For whatever reason, Brunei wasn’t happy with it and didn’t want to accept the ships when it was due to be delivered.

How best to explain Kasak-kusuk? Maneuvering, jockeying, scheming? Usually the connotation is someone is planning/doing something in secret. Somehow it fits with what Australia is doing in the TL at the moment.

 

[focus9912]

“There needs to be a change of government in either Cambodia or Malaysia”, explained Thaksin.

26th October 2002:
Fox looked very pleased with himself as the APEC Summit is officially declared open. As the leaders took turn making speeches, there was nothing noteworthy about the speeches though Try noted that Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin made comment that APEC member nations should not favor one trade agreement over another “especially when they have benefitted from the present economic environment”; a subtle warning at Try’s intention to prioritize AFTA.

Ah yes, the APEC summit and it stance on certain free trade agreements. To quote a phrase from 1996 by one of the Malaysian politicians that could be used as a counter point to Paul Martin:

ASEAN is a marriage, APEC is a friendship.... . I tell you APEC is not even boyfriend-girlfriend.

Banter aside, another good update, with the APEC summit started, it would be interesting what will the impact implementation of AFTA to APEC.

P/s: Just realized that said politician were shuffled out ITTL from the cabinet post when Abdullah took over, being replaced with Najib(wait,is Najib became Abdullah's deputy ITTL, if not who is the deputy prime minister?). That were in hindsight surprising since she was competently (unlike most of the other cabinet members) handling that post and IOTL hold the job from 1987 to 2008, but only partly since IOTL she did thrown out of the cabinet unexpectedly and without any explanation by Abdullah, and she was dropped probably in a similar way (by the same person mind you) ITTL.

 

[wahyubison]

Nachkoda Ragam Class epic failed warship
Just OPV even still only slightly can be classed as Corvette

 

[Pio2013]

*There was facetime with President of Taiwan James Soong though Taiwan attended the summit as Chinese Taipei. Amidst agreeing that a Taiwan delegation will come to Indonesia seeking to invest in the food and beverage sector, Try tried to guide the topic to geopolitics. Try made mention of Costa Rica’s significance in Central America and wondered what Taiwan about its decision to cease recognizing Taiwan and begin recognizing China. Immediately, Soong became defensive.

IIRC, Costa Rica is characterized by a solid democracy, a liberal economy and neutrality enhanced by law - they have no army.

If i were to guess, the politic stability is what Try likes, as a key to approach the whole Central America (approach, influence, put any word you like).

 

[Vladyslav]

Hi. What about Ukraine ITTL? IOTL Ukrainian president Kuchma carried out "multi-vector" politics of balance between relationships with Russia and the West. There was the Cassette Scandal in 2000 quarreled Kuchma with the US due to accusations in "Kolchuha" weapon system sale in Iraq. The "Melnichenko tapes" themselves are a rather contraversive source, the origin of which some people blame the Russian special services. Kuchma was forced to get too close to Russia and appoint Russian agent Medvedchuk as head of the presidential administration. Also, the Cassette Scandal led to the Kuchma coalition (all against the "old left" of the Communist and Socialist parties) disintegration into an opposition pro-European camp and Russia-oriented groups, the conflict of which determined Ukrainian politics until 2014. After 2001, Kuchma tried to restore relations with the West and even sent troops to Iraq. The pro-Russian tilt in politics did not prevent a conflict with Russia over the Tuzla island.

What will happen to Ukraine in the ITTL Second Cold War context? Would McCain administration think Kolchuha part of tapes is the FSB montage? Would Primakov more successful in Ukrainian politics? Or was the recorder found and Kuchma tries to be neutral in 2CW?

 

[Marco Rivignani]

Hi. What about Ukraine ITTL? IOTL Ukrainian president Kuchma carried out "multi-vector" politics of balance between relationships with Russia and the West. There was the Cassette Scandal in 2000 quarreled Kuchma with the US due to accusations in "Kolchuha" weapon system sale in Iraq. The "Melnichenko tapes" themselves are a rather contraversive source, the origin of which some people blame the Russian special services. Kuchma was forced to get too close to Russia and appoint Russian agent Medvedchuk as head of the presidential administration. Also, the Cassette Scandal led to the Kuchma coalition (all against the "old left" of the Communist and Socialist parties) disintegration into an opposition pro-European camp and Russia-oriented groups, the conflict of which determined Ukrainian politics until 2014. After 2001, Kuchma tried to restore relations with the West and even sent troops to Iraq. The pro-Russian tilt in politics did not prevent a conflict with Russia over the Tuzla island.

What will happen to Ukraine in the ITTL Second Cold War context? (1)Would McCain administration think Kolchuha part of tapes is the FSB montage? Would Primakov more successful in Ukrainian politics? (2) Or was the recorder found and Kuchma tries to be neutral in 2CW?

1. It would be the exact opposite. The McCain administration would be even more receptive to the Cassette scandal than in OTL. The Cassette scandal destroyed Kuchma's relative popularity in Ukraine and later led to the Orange Revolution in 2004. Kuchma tilted towards Russia in the early 2000s in order to counterbalance the loss of trust with the West and tried to offset it with a tilt towards Russia. Why would the FSB strengthen the opposition in Ukraine?

In OTL Kuchma (a neutral/pro-Russian figure like early Lukashenko or Nazarbayev) persecuted Georgiy Gongadze because he was pro-west/pro-Europe (he even fought on the side of Georgia in the mid-1990s against Russia) and due to his anti-corruption probes. Mykola Melnychenko (the guy that recorded the tapes) later fled to the United States (why would he do that if he was acting in the interests of Russia?). Only after being boycotted by the western governments and seeing that the West was supporting the "Ukraine without Kuchma Movement" did Kuchma remove Yushenko and improve its relations with Russia (which in order to boost its influence in Ukraine refuted the authenticity of the tapes). Then, after seeing that Ukraine for the moment was economically dependent on Russia, Moscow decided to resolve the Tuzla island dispute in its favour. In the meantime, Kuchma actively tried to re-establish its relations with the West by sending troops into Iraq in 2003 but when in 2004 he saw that the West still opposed him he decided to throw his lot entirely with Russians. It was however too little too late and the pro-European forces won the power struggle.

In my opinion, TTL Primakov would try to support Kuchma and later Yanukovich even more than in OTL in order to be sure that Russian red lines will be respected and that NATO will not expand further East (Especially if the West intervenes against Serbia once again). The same thing applies to TTL US/EU: they would also try to boost their popularity even more in order to install a pro-western government in Ukraine and checkmate Russia by depriving it of its strategic depth.

This could seriously strain the internal situation and maybe even lead to an earlier civil war in Ukraine.

2. Neutrality (and federalism) was always the optimal direction that Ukraine should have followed (it could have acted in a similar way to OTL Yugoslavia during the first cold war). In OTL's early 2010s Yanukovich and to some extent also Russia tried to cooperate with the EU and establish a three-way economic agreement but the EU imposed either the association agreement and European integration or no integration at all. Not wanting to alienate its power base Yanukovich tilted towards Russia but it was again too little too late and he was overthrown by the pro-West factions. ITTL things could develop differently but I guess only time will tell what will TTL Ukraine look like in the future.

 

[Vladyslav]

In OTL Kuchma (a neutral/pro-Russian figure like early Lukashenko or Nazarbayev)

Kuchma was not a pro-Russian politician. His romance with Russia in the 2000s was the result of desperation after the cooling of relations with the United States. If Kuchma had been a pro-Russian politician, he would have pulled out Lukashenka or Nazarbayev, since the constitutional basis for a third term had already been invented.

Kuchma tilted towards Russia in the early 2000s in order to counterbalance the loss of trust with the West and tried to offset it with a tilt towards Russia. Why would the FSB strengthen the opposition in Ukraine?

You already wrote the reason for hypothetical FSB footprint in this story. Weak Kuchma in conflict with the West and pro-Western groups in Ukraine is useful for Russia

The McCain administration would be even more receptive to the Cassette scandal than in OTL.

The Cold War logic. I don't think that Kuchma was worse than Franco, Tito or Mao supported by the West in different moments of the 1CW.

fled to the United States (why would he do that if he was acting in the interests of Russia?)

I think choose between emigration in Russia and the US is obvious

persecuted Georgiy Gongadze

Kolchuha to Saddam story was more important for OTL USA than another killed journalist

Kuchma actively tried to re-establish its relations with the West by sending troops into Iraq in 2003 but when in 2004 he saw that the West still opposed him he decided to throw his lot entirely with Russians

If the West is more loyal to Kuchma, then it may not make Yanukovych, who was imposed by the Russians and their allies, but someone like Heorhiy Kirpa the heir.

Yanukovich and to some extent also Russia tried to cooperate with the EU and establish a three-way economic agreement but the EU imposed either the association agreement and European integration or no integration at all.

This is not entirely true. Yanukovych until the last moment was ready to sign an agreement with the EU without regard to Russia.

alienate its power base

Yanukovych's economic base is the oligarchs, who by 2013 redirected their metal exports outside of Russia, which is more of a competitor in this market than a partner. Yanukovych also had a plan to have the pro-Russian part of the electorate vote for him in at least the second round: to make sure that Oleh Tiahnybok was the main opponent in the elections. They would have voted for the unpopular Yanukovych to keep "fascists" out of power. The traditional pro-European opposition was losing popularity due to the inability to resist Yanukovych, and the vacant seat was inevitably taken by Svoboda

Neutrality

And elephant in the room: Russian naval base in Sevastopol before 2017

federalism

Ukrainians were afraid of formal federalism (which was supported for some time even by part of the National Democrats like Chornovil) because they believed that this was the first step for the disintegration of the country inspirated by Russia.

it could have acted in a similar way to OTL Yugoslavia during the first cold war

This (OTL bahatovektornist/multi-vector policy) is what Kuchma and a significant part of the Ukrainian political class will strive for.

 

[Gillan1220]

IIRC, Costa Rica is characterized by a solid democracy, a liberal economy and neutrality enhanced by law - they have no army.

If i were to guess, the politic stability is what Try likes, as a key to approach the whole Central America (approach, influence, put any word you like).

Costa Rica abolished it's armed forces in 1948. It only has a police force. It does not face any threats currently since the Nicaraguan Civil War ended.

 

[Pio2013]

This TL has been nominated for 2023 Turtledoves: Best Cold War to Contemporary Timeline Nominations and Seconds

 

[GSD310]

29th October 2002:
Losing a day because he flew across the International Date Line, the President arrived back at Halim Perdanakusuma International Airport where he was welcomed, among others, by Vice President JB Sumarlin and Chairman of the DPR Matori Abdul Djalil.

Among those also welcoming the President back was Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas. Harsudiono was walking with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat when the press began asking questions about what was the President’s response to Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s comment earlier in the day that “leadership is needed when there is an international crisis such as that in Montenegro”.

“Well whatever stance the President takes we all know the Chairwoman of the PKPB will just declare she is for the exact opposite”, replied Harsudiono.

During his turn to speak Edi explained that the President will fly out again next week to Cambodia for the ASEAN Summit.

30th October 2002:
At the Presidential Palace, the President chaired a meeting attended by Sumarlin and the cabinet ministers. The meeting went on for sometime before Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti came out for a joint press conference.

Dorodjatun said that the cabinet discussed and agreed to the proposal which the President intends to present at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia next week for the resumption of AFTA. He explained of the potential benefits of resuming AFTA and said that pending agreement by the ASEAN Summit, the government will announce steps to prepare businesses and farmers and various participants for the economy for AFTA so that AFTA would not do harm to them.

Ginandjar spoke next and focused on the geopolitics behind the resumption of AFTA. And around Southeast Asia, many would notice the “L” word being used for the first time in relation to Indonesia and its policies in an official statement.

“The resumption of AFTA is a long overdue business for ASEAN”, explained Ginandjar “And Indonesia intends to exercise leadership on this matter for the benefit of not only Indonesia itself but for all members of ASEAN.”

31st October 2002:
To cheers, the President made an appearance at the Kramat Jati Main Market in East Jakarta. Accompanied by Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna, and Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, the President inspected the market to check on the prices of various goods ahead of the Ramadan fasting month. He was pleased to hear that the prices of fruits and vegetables were more stable than in previous years where there would be spikes in prices near and in the fasting month. He was even more pleased that the markets, at least in Java, were getting more produce from the regions via the toll roads which had been opened and which had better connected the cities with the regions.

The increase in the price of meat was something which all the officials noted. The bad news was that the supply of beef was still being outpaced by the demand. The good news was that living standards had increased again in 2002 and that means more people can include meat in their diet.

As he walked around the market, the President’s eyes were piqued by developments from Montenegro overnight. The vote count of the Montenegrin Presidential Election had been completed and points to the re-election of President of Montenegro Milo Dukanovic. The news highlighted how President of the United States John McCain and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair were the first to congratulate Dukanovic and acknowledge his victory.

“We’re keeping an eye on developments”, said the President to the press corps following his visit when they asked.

1st November 2002:
State Minister of Urban Development Ridwan Hisjam, State Minister of Rural Development Feisal Tamin, and Chairman of the BP-7 Agus Widjojo came out of a meeting with the President. The three officials reported to the President, and received his approval, of an agreement they had signed together to provide P-4 Training to the urban poor and to the rural unemployed. Agus Widjojo said that there is a need to "root out" the extreme right and that a good place to start is by extending P-4 Training to some of the more "vulnerable sections" of society.

Sumarlin was the President's post-Friday Prayer Lunch Buddy today. He was seen joining the President for a meal. When he came out, Sumarlin found himself crowded by the press who asked him what was discussed. Walking to his car, Sumarlin said that the President and himself discussed the President's trip over the last few weeks including to the G-15, APEC, and the United States. In particular, Sumarlin highlighted the debt moratorium officially becoming "untouched" and officially being stated as having no strings attached as the significant achievement of the President's trip over the last few weeks.

4th November 2002:
Unlike the G-15 and APEC Summits, the Indonesian Delegation organized its arrival to the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia for the day of the summit itself rather than evening prior to the summit. There was added drama, at least from the press corps’ perspective, stemming from the fact that the Indonesian Delegation was the last one to arrive.

The cameras snapped as Try shook hands with Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen before the summit got underway. Everyone made their pro-forma opening speech then went for a short break and then returned for the second session where Hun Sen said that ASEAN will discuss the proposal to resume AFTA with the said proposal to be delivered by the President of the Republic of Indonesia.

Calling it “the great unfinished business of our region”, Try outlined his proposal for the resumption of AFTA:

*The original 15-year deadline for the establishment of a free trade area in Southeast Asia will be restored instead of the 10-year deadline.

*The delay in implementation of AFTA was initiated at the 1998 ASEAN Summit and took effect on 1st January 1999. This meant that the region had spent 6 years moving towards AFTA, leaving 9 more years for the region to move towards AFTA if the 15-year deadline is agreed.

*If the summit agrees to the resumption of AFTA, the target date for the resumption of AFTA will be set on 1st January 2004. The target date for a free trade area to be already established in Southeast Asia will be 1st January 2013.

“Let it be known that the Republic of Indonesia does not attach conditions to this proposal. Nations in the region that want to lower their tariffs at a quicker rate may do so; nations in the region that want to enter into and observe the conditions of other free trade agreements may do so; nor does agreement to what is being proposed mean that nations in the region must adopt a certain foreign policy stance though it is the hope of the Republic of Indonesia that the nations in the region keep the regional interest in mind when considering matters of strategic significance”, continued Try.

There was a break for lunch and then the leaders returned for the third section when all the other ASEAN Nations would express their reactions to Try's proposal.

Those who attended the summit would say later that the event was something of an anticlimax. Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, Prime Minister of Laos Bounnhang Vorachit, and Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai strongly expressed their support for Try and their agreement at his proposals but this was to be expected given that they were part of what was nicknamed “The Jakarta Bloc”.

There was applause from the delegations of the Jakarta Bloc nations when Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong and Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah also expressed their agreement to Try’s proposal. The two nations acknowledged Indonesia’s “economic leadership” though they were mute on whether Indonesia exercised leadership in other areas.

Hun Sen declared Cambodia’s support. A desire to achieve something significant while being the chair and host of the ASEAN Summit as well as wanting to make AFTA a non-issue in Cambodia’s upcoming election in July 2003, FUNCINPEC’s Norodom Ranariddh having scored a lot of points by claiming that Hun Sen does not care about Cambodia’s economic interest, pushed Hun Sen to agree.

Trying to remain poker-faced, Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak also agreed with Try’s proposal. Though the “H” word did not come out of his mouth, Najib latched to Singapore and Brunei’s formula of saying that Indonesia exercised economic leadership without saying whether Indonesia exercised leadership in any other areas. Najib said that Malaysia will “make sure” Indonesia fulfills the promise it just made of respecting the foreign policies of ASEAN nations even if “it did not accord with Indonesia’s own stance and interests”.

Chairman of the SPDC Khin Nyunt left the summit and flew back to Myanmar. He made the decision to leave when he saw that Hun Sen and Najib were “buckling”. To the press he would say that the starting point of any discussion between Myanmar and Indonesia is the return of Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann, his followers, and their families back to Myanmar.

A banquet was held for the ASEAN Leaders that night at the Royal Palace by King Norodom Sihanouk. The whispers around the Phochani Pavilion where the banquet was held said that it was banquet not so much for the leaders as it was for Indonesia on the occasion of its assumption of regional leadership.

5th November 2002:
The second day of the summit went smoothly. Singapore nominated the appointment of Heng Swee Keat as Secretary General of ASEAN. Former Principal Private Secretary to Singaporean Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew and current Permanent Secretary of Singapore’s Department of Trade of Industry. The rationale for this nomination was because the next Secretary General of ASEAN must oversee the implementation of the resumption of AFTA. The Summit agreed unanimously to the appointment.

There was an ASEAN+2 Summit with China and Japan attending, South Korea having decided not to attend as a signal that its interests converged with that of Indonesia. Try himself once again did not attend the ASEAN+2 Summit and delegated to Ginandjar to attend that mini-event on his behalf.

But even though he did not attend ASEAN+2, Try found himself accepting a request to meet from an unexpected source. Though reluctant, Try was convinced by Ginandjar and Edi to accept the meeting.

“Ah, the man of the moment”, said President of China Jiang Zemin as Try walked into the room. Jiang was not by himself and was accompanied by Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Tang Jiaxuan.

Try and Jiang sat down. They discussed the developing situation in Montenegro where Dukanovic, in response to President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic’s non-recognition of his victory, claimed that he had a mandate to hold an independence in referendum. Jiang said that though his sympathies was with Milosevic, he had told the Kremlin that whatever happens next they must not join the military escalation which “The White House and 10 Downing Street were fishing for”. Jiang said, and Try agreed, that what “nations like them need” was peace so that they could focus on economic development.

On BRICI, Jiang said that Roseana Sarney’s victory in the Brazilian Presidential Election the previous week meant that there will be a BRICI meeting/summit next year. Jiang urged Try to join and Try found himself agreeing with Jiang saying that emerging economic powers should not have policies dictated to it.

Try reiterated support for a One China Policy and that Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet are part of China. Jiang responded by congratulating Indonesia for settling “the dispute” with East Timor once for all and underlining it by restoring diplomatic relations with Portugal. He joked that China and Indonesia had worked together to end Portuguese imperialism by “taking” East Timor and Macau.

“See, Mr. President, we agree on a lot of things and have a lot in common”, said Jiang “Where did it all go wrong?”

The answer was in regional politics. When Jiang said that China’s intention is to be a friend to Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar and Cambodia when others in the world have turned their backs. Try did not buy this.

“There’s 10 of us and you’ve gotten yourselves three seats at the table so of course Indonesia’s uncomfortable, Mr. President”, said Try “If China is trying to draw ASEAN countries into its orbit, this has the potential of disturbing regional stability and if this spills over into Indonesia’s own national stability then Indonesia has to take action”.

Jiang laughed as he wiped his glasses with a handkerchief and then puts it back on again.

“China is not Indonesia’s security threat”, said Jiang “Indonesia’s real security threat is the one you are turning your back on so you can concentrate on us.”

A vein bulged in Try’s forehead and Jiang picked up on that.

“Well, Indonesia and Australia’s relationship has its ups and downs…” started Try.

“Did I mention that it was they who came to us to offer us their coal?” asked Jiang “And now what’s this I’m hearing, they were the ones to whisper in Washington’s ear that it would not be a good idea to let you have F-16s?”

Try wanted to say something but Jiang kept hammering at him.

“Indonesia and China…we’re a case of being in each other’s way, Mr. President” said Jiang “China is a big nation and becoming more powerful and wanting to extend its influence everywhere including in Southeast Asia, Indonesia wants to be the most powerful in Southeast Asia…we’re in each other’s way, that’s true, but there’s nothing here that can’t be fixed by sitting down together.”

Try nodded as though having no choice but to agree.

“But Indonesia and Australia, Mr. President…” continued Jiang “It seems that there’s a lot of emotion there, would you not agree? I don't think you got this heated when we decided to recognize Gen. Khin Nyunt's government in Rangoon.”

“You are correct, Mr. President”, said Try.

“Then why such a state of affairs between our two countries?” asked Jiang.

Try looked over at Edi and then at Ginandjar as though asking permission to say what he was about to say and then he looked back at Jiang.

“That sea does not belong to China”, replied Try “No matter how many dash lines you want to put on it.”

And for the first time in that meeting, Jiang stopped smiling.

---
And ASEAN agrees unanimously (if you don’t count Myanmar) on the resumption of AFTA after being divided on the issue of the Myanmar Coup earlier in the year. Lots of provisos about Indonesia only exercising “economic leadership” by the neutrals and by Malaysia but basically everyone agreed with what Indonesia proposed.

The timeline here of AFTA being suspended at the 1998 ASEAN Summit is a retcon. If you look at the 1998 ASEAN Summit ITTL (15th-16th December 1998), you'll find Try being praised for being successful in handling the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia but nothing at all on AFTA. Why is that the case? In the earlier part of this TL's journey I, believe it or not, didn't think that foreign policy would become a pretty big element of the TL. I naively thought the butterflies would not spill over the Indonesian border. The resumption of AFTA, the 2002 Myanmarian Coup and Shwe Mann's evacuation to Indonesia, much less ITTL Indonesia and China's relationship simply did not exist back then.

So if you notice during the earlier ITTL years, I was always a bit vague about what happens in other countries and "deepening ties" is as in-depth as they come when Try meets a foreign leader at a summit or a state visit. Story-wise, I will attribute this to Try not being interested in foreign policy because he was busy with trying to get Indonesia out of the economic crisis and that such events as AFTA being temporarily ceased either happened off-screen or was not of sufficient importance to him.

Thank you @focus9912 ,@Pio2013 , @Kosaki_MacTavish, @Bloodking and @Username_REDACTED for your nominations and second of this TL in the Turtledoves and of course to all those who have been following this TL.

 

[Pilatypus]

As he walked around the market, the President’s eyes were piqued by developments from Montenegro overnight. The vote count of the Montenegrin Presidential Election had been completed and points to the re-election of President of Montenegro Milo Dukanovic. The news highlighted how President of the United States John McCain and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair

There was a break for lunch and then the leaders returned for the third section when all the other ASEAN Nations would express

Some cut off paragraphs here. And what a statement to end the chapter.

 

[Dude...]

29th October 2002:
Losing a day because he flew across the International Date Line, the President arrived back at Halim Perdanakusuma International Airport where he was welcomed, among others, by Vice President JB Sumarlin and Chairman of the DPR Matori Abdul Djalil.

Among those also welcoming the President back was Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas. Harsudiono was walking with State Secretary Edi Sudrajat when the press began asking questions about what was the President’s response to Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s comment earlier in the day that “leadership is needed when there is an international crisis such as that in Montenegro”.

“Well whatever stance the President takes we all know the Chairwoman of the PKPB will just declare she is for the exact opposite”, replied Harsudiono.

During his turn to speak Edi explained that the President will fly out again next week to Cambodia for the ASEAN Summit.

30th October 2002:
At the Presidential Palace, the President chaired a meeting attended by Sumarlin and the cabinet ministers. The meeting went on for sometime before Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti came out for a joint press conference.

Dorodjatun said that the cabinet discussed and agreed to the proposal which the President intends to present at the ASEAN Summit in Cambodia next week for the resumption of AFTA. He explained of the potential benefits of resuming AFTA and said that pending agreement by the ASEAN Summit, the government will announce steps to prepare businesses and farmers and various participants for the economy for AFTA so that AFTA would not do harm to them.

Ginandjar spoke next and focused on the geopolitics behind the resumption of AFTA. And around Southeast Asia, many would notice the “L” word being used for the first time in relation to Indonesia and its policies in an official statement.

“The resumption of AFTA is a long overdue business for ASEAN”, explained Ginandjar “And Indonesia intends to exercise leadership on this matter for the benefit of not only Indonesia itself but for all members of ASEAN.”

31st October 2002:
To cheers, the President made an appearance at the Kramat Jati Main Market in East Jakarta. Accompanied by Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Minister of Agriculture Sarwono Kusumaatmadja, Head of Bulog Adang Ruchiatna, and Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso, the President inspected the market to check on the prices of various goods ahead of the Ramadan fasting month. He was pleased to hear that the prices of fruits and vegetables were more stable than in previous years where there would be spikes in prices near and in the fasting month. He was even more pleased that the markets, at least in Java, were getting more produce from the regions via the toll roads which had been opened and which had better connected the cities with the regions.

The increase in the price of meat was something which all the officials noted. The bad news was that the supply of beef was still being outpaced by the demand. The good news was that living standards had increased again in 2002 and that means more people can include meat in their diet.

As he walked around the market, the President’s eyes were piqued by developments from Montenegro overnight. The vote count of the Montenegrin Presidential Election had been completed and points to the re-election of President of Montenegro Milo Dukanovic. The news highlighted how President of the United States John McCain and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair

“We’re keeping an eye on developments”, said the President to the press corps following his visit when they asked.

1st November 2002:
State Minister of Urban Development Ridwan Hisjam, State Minister of Rural Development Feisal Tamin, and Chairman of the BP-7 Agus Widjojo came out of a meeting with the President. The three officials reported to the President, and received his approval, of an agreement they had signed together to provide P-4 Training to the urban poor and to the rural unemployed. Agus Widjojo said that there is a need to "root out" the extreme right and that a good place to start is by extending P-4 Training to some of the more "vulnerable sections" of society.

Sumarlin was the President's post-Friday Prayer Lunch Buddy today. He was seen joining the President for a meal. When he came out, Sumarlin found himself crowded by the press who asked him what was discussed. Walking to his car, Sumarlin said that the President and himself discussed the President's trip over the last few weeks including to the G-15, APEC, and the United States. In particular, Sumarlin highlighted the debt moratorium officially becoming "untouched" and officially being stated as having no strings attached as the significant achievement of the President's trip over the last few weeks.

4th November 2002:
Unlike the G-15 and APEC Summits, the Indonesian Delegation organized its arrival to the ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia for the day of the summit itself rather than evening prior to the summit. There was added drama, at least from the press corps’ perspective, stemming from the fact that the Indonesian Delegation was the last one to arrive.

The cameras snapped as Try shook hands with Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen before the summit got underway. Everyone made their pro-forma opening speech then went for a short break and then returned for the second session where Hun Sen said that ASEAN will discuss the proposal to resume AFTA with the said proposal to be delivered by the President of the Republic of Indonesia.

Calling it “the great unfinished business of our region”, Try outlined his proposal for the resumption of AFTA:

*The original 15-year deadline for the establishment of a free trade area in Southeast Asia will be restored instead of the 10-year deadline.

*The delay in implementation of AFTA was initiated at the 1998 ASEAN Summit and took effect on 1st January 1999. This meant that the region had spent 6 years moving towards AFTA, leaving 9 more years for the region to move towards AFTA if the 15-year deadline is agreed.

*If the summit agrees to the resumption of AFTA, the target date for the resumption of AFTA will be set on 1st January 2004. The target date for a free trade area to be already established in Southeast Asia will be 1st January 2013.

“Let it be known that the Republic of Indonesia does not attach conditions to this proposal. Nations in the region that want to lower their tariffs at a quicker rate may do so; nations in the region that want to enter into and observe the conditions of other free trade agreements may do so; nor does agreement to what is being proposed mean that nations in the region must adopt a certain foreign policy stance though it is the hope of the Republic of Indonesia that the nations in the region keep the regional interest in mind when considering matters of strategic significance”, continued Try.

There was a break for lunch and then the leaders returned for the third section when all the other ASEAN Nations would express

Those who attended the summit would say later that the event was something of an anticlimax. Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, President of the Philippines Joseph Estrada, Prime Minister of Laos Bounnhang Vorachit, and Prime Minister of Vietnam Phan Van Khai strongly expressed their support for Try and their agreement at his proposals but this was to be expected given that they were part of what was nicknamed “The Jakarta Bloc”.

There was applause from the delegations of the Jakarta Bloc nations when Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong and Sultan of Brunei Hassanal Bolkiah also expressed their agreement to Try’s proposal. The two nations acknowledged Indonesia’s “economic leadership” though they were mute on whether Indonesia exercised leadership in other areas.

Hun Sen declared Cambodia’s support. A desire to achieve something significant while being the chair and host of the ASEAN Summit as well as wanting to make AFTA a non-issue in Cambodia’s upcoming election in July 2003, FUNCINPEC’s Norodom Ranariddh having scored a lot of points by claiming that Hun Sen does not care about Cambodia’s economic interest, pushed Hun Sen to agree.

Trying to remain poker-faced, Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak also agreed with Try’s proposal. Though the “H” word did not come out of his mouth, Najib latched to Singapore and Brunei’s formula of saying that Indonesia exercised economic leadership without saying whether Indonesia exercised leadership in any other areas. Najib said that Malaysia will “make sure” Indonesia fulfills the promise it just made of respecting the foreign policies of ASEAN nations even if “it did not accord with Indonesia’s own stance and interests”.

Chairman of the SPDC Khin Nyunt left the summit and flew back to Myanmar. He made the decision to leave when he saw that Hun Sen and Najib were “buckling”. To the press he would say that the starting point of any discussion between Myanmar and Indonesia is the return of Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann, his followers, and their families back to Myanmar.

A banquet was held for the ASEAN Leaders that night at the Royal Palace by King Norodom Sihanouk. The whispers around the Phochani Pavilion where the banquet was held said that it was banquet not so much for the leaders as it was for Indonesia on the occasion of its assumption of regional leadership.

5th November 2002:
The second day of the summit went smoothly. Singapore nominated the appointment of Heng Swee Keat as Secretary General of ASEAN. Former Principal Private Secretary to Singaporean Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew and current Permanent Secretary of Singapore’s Department of Trade of Industry. The rationale for this nomination was because the next Secretary General of ASEAN must oversee the implementation of the resumption of AFTA. The Summit agreed unanimously to the appointment.

There was an ASEAN+2 Summit with China and Japan attending, South Korea having decided not to attend as a signal that its interests converged with that of Indonesia. Try himself once again did not attend the ASEAN+2 Summit and delegated to Ginandjar to attend that mini-event on his behalf.

But even though he did not attend ASEAN+2, Try found himself accepting a request to meet from an unexpected source. Though reluctant, Try was convinced by Ginandjar and Edi to accept the meeting.

“Ah, the man of the moment”, said President of China Jiang Zemin as Try walked into the room. Jiang was not by himself and was accompanied by Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Tang Jiaxuan.

Try and Jiang sat down. They discussed the developing situation in Montenegro where Dukanovic, in response to President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic’s non-recognition of his victory, claimed that he had a mandate to hold an independence in referendum. Jiang said that though his sympathies was with Milosevic, he had told the Kremlin that whatever happens next they must not join the military escalation which “The White House and 10 Downing Street were fishing for”. Jiang said, and Try agreed, that what “nations like them need” was peace so that they could focus on economic development.

On BRICI, Jiang said that Roseana Sarney’s victory in the Brazilian Presidential Election the previous week meant that there will be a BRICI meeting/summit next year. Jiang urged Try to join and Try found himself agreeing with Jiang saying that emerging economic powers should not have policies dictated to it.

Try reiterated support for a One China Policy and that Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet are part of China. Jiang responded by congratulating Indonesia for settling “the dispute” with East Timor once for all and underlining it by restoring diplomatic relations with Portugal. He joked that China and Indonesia had worked together to end Portuguese imperialism by “taking” East Timor and Macau.

“See, Mr. President, we agree on a lot of things and have a lot in common”, said Jiang “Where did it all go wrong?”

The answer was in regional politics. When Jiang said that China’s intention is to be a friend to Southeast Asian countries such as Myanmar and Cambodia when others in the world have turned their backs. Try did not buy this.

“There’s 10 of us and you’ve gotten yourselves three seats at the table so of course Indonesia’s uncomfortable, Mr. President”, said Try “If China is trying to draw ASEAN countries into its orbit, this has the potential of disturbing regional stability and if this spills over into Indonesia’s own national stability then Indonesia has to take action”.

Jiang laughed as he wiped his glasses with a handkerchief and then puts it back on again.

“China is not Indonesia’s security threat”, said Jiang “Indonesia’s real security threat is the one you are turning your back on so you can concentrate on us.”

A vein bulged in Try’s forehead and Jiang picked up on that.

“Well, Indonesia and Australia’s relationship has its ups and downs…” started Try.

“Did I mention that it was they who came to us to offer us their coal?” asked Jiang “And now what’s this I’m hearing, they were the ones to whisper in Washington’s ear that it would not be a good idea to let you have F-16s?”

Try wanted to say something but Jiang kept hammering at him.

“Indonesia and China…we’re a case of being in each other’s way, Mr. President” said Jiang “China is a big nation and becoming more powerful and wanting to extend its influence everywhere including in Southeast Asia, Indonesia wants to be the most powerful in Southeast Asia…we’re in each other’s way, that’s true, but there’s nothing here that can’t be fixed by sitting down together.”

Try nodded as though having no choice but to agree.

“But Indonesia and Australia, Mr. President…” continued Jiang “It seems that there’s a lot of emotion there, would you not agree? I don't think you got this heated when we decided to recognize Gen. Khin Nyunt's government in Rangoon.”

“You are correct, Mr. President”, said Try.

“Then why such a state of affairs between our two countries?” asked Jiang.

Try looked over at Edi and then at Ginandjar as though asking permission to say what he was about to say and then he looked back at Jiang.

“That sea does not belong to China”, replied Try “No matter how many dash lines you want to put on it.”

And for the first time in that meeting, Jiang stopped smiling.

---
And ASEAN agrees unanimously (if you don’t count Myanmar) on the resumption of AFTA after being divided on the issue of the Myanmar Coup earlier in the year. Lots of provisos about Indonesia only exercising “economic leadership” by the neutrals and by Malaysia but basically everyone agreed with what Indonesia proposed.

The timeline here of AFTA being suspended at the 1998 ASEAN Summit is a retcon. If you look at the 1998 ASEAN Summit ITTL (15th-16th December 1998), you'll find Try being praised for being successful in handling the Asian Financial Crisis in Indonesia but nothing at all on AFTA. Why is that the case? In the earlier part of this TL's journey I, believe it or not, didn't think that foreign policy would become a pretty big element of the TL. I naively thought the butterflies would not spill over the Indonesian border. The resumption of AFTA, the 2002 Myanmarian Coup and Shwe Mann's evacuation to Indonesia, much less ITTL Indonesia and China's relationship simply did not exist back then.

So if you notice during the earlier ITTL years, I was always a bit vague about what happens in other countries and "deepening ties" is as in-depth as they come when Try meets a foreign leader at a summit or a state visit. Story-wise, I will attribute this to Try not being interested in foreign policy because he was busy with trying to get Indonesia out of the economic crisis and that such events as AFTA being temporarily ceased either happened off-screen or was not of sufficient importance to him.

Thank you @focus9912 ,@Pio2013 , @Kosaki_MacTavish, @Bloodking and @Username_REDACTED for your nominations and second of this TL in the Turtledoves and of course to all those who have been following this TL.

Try’s last statement to Jiang really stunned him (we all know what is this about). And funnily enough Jiang last statement about China getting more powerful and wanting to expand its influence really justifies the whole reason of Try and “Jakarta Bloc” (and maybe someday whole of ASEAN) of foreign policy being polite but cold to China is because they are expansionist. A clear far cry to Indonesia where they know they are the largest power in the region (well on their way to be the powerful) but still wanted to respect everyone sovereignty and their internal affairs.

To be honest I found this foreign affairs moment as nice because of how it explains how the world treats Indonesia in international affairs. I also wander about what happen in the next chapter about foreign and internal affairs of Indonesia.

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

“That sea does not belong to China”, replied Try “No matter how many dash lines you want to put on it.”

What a statement that would struck a nerve to both Chinas for sure.

As the OTL PRC-Tajikistan Border Agreement which relinquishes China's claim of thousands of sq kms of land to Tajikistan (which ROC didn't recognize, ofc) is only ratified in 2011 PRC-Russian 2004 Border Agreement is still two years away, perhaps Jiang would be more hawkish than OTL on demanding that because of Try, lol. Would love to see both Soong and Chen's reactions if this conversation ever gets leaked.

 

[Pio2013]

Which is the most direct consequence of Montenegro affair on Indonesia? Still not understanding why some parties expect to show leadership in a situation happening very far away. I cant see ripples reaching SEA, at least, direct ripples.

Great move from Try, drawing a line on the sea to China: "You stay there, I stay here. Dont cross."

Wonder if its reasonable to increase meat offer to the local market, given the notorious increase on meat demand.

 

[wahyubison]

That sea does not belong to China”, replied Try “No matter how many dash lines you want to put on it.”

What a statement that would struck a nerve to both Chinas for sure.

As the OTL PRC-Tajikistan Border Agreement which relinquishes China's claim of thousands of sq kms of land to Tajikistan (which ROC didn't recognize, ofc) is only ratified in 2011 PRC-Russian 2004 Border Agreement is still two years away, perhaps Jiang would be more hawkish than OTL on demanding that because of Try, lol. Would love to see both Soong and Chen's reactions if this conversation ever gets leaked.

Is it too fast making hard statement???
Jiang can be count still soft on SEA on OTL
Hu Jintao will make harder stance , I am afraid China will make greater provocation on SEA with their Navy

 

[Kosaki_MacTavish]

Is it too fast making hard statement???
Jiang can be count still soft on SEA on OTL

You're right. Let's see if the Chinese-Russian border agreement would be signed first before we're speculating on South China Sea.

 

[deepoceanblue]

Seems a new biography is launching. Maybe could shed some new light?

 

[GSD310]

Some cut off paragraphs here. And what a statement to end the chapter.

Fixed the cut off paras.

As he walked around the market, the President’s eyes were piqued by developments from Montenegro overnight. The vote count of the Montenegrin Presidential Election had been completed and points to the re-election of President of Montenegro Milo Dukanovic. The news highlighted how President of the United States John McCain and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair were the first to congratulate Dukanovic and acknowledge his victory.

There was a break for lunch and then the leaders returned for the third section when all the other ASEAN Nations would express their reactions to Try's proposal.

About the Try/Jiang dialogue, I think in a way that represents ITTL Indonesia/China's relationship. The "This is not your sea" comments is Indonesia being a hassle for China but the way Jiang was easily getting under Try's skin by saying "Nope, Australia's your real threat, not us" shows that Indonesia will get beaten if it tries to go against China one on one.

There will be another China-related development in the next chapter.

View attachment 813225Seems a new biography is launching. Maybe could shed some new light?

Now that will be an interesting POV on events.

Wondering if he has anything to say about Try. Probably nothing negative judging by Mrs. Try's presence (https://www.merdeka.com/peristiwa/k...moko-bersama-rakyat-ke-gerbang-reformasi.html)