Oh that makes sense. Apologies for being insensitive to your personal situation.
War makes for Strange Bedfellows – A Second World War timeline
- Thread starter BurkeanLibCon
- Start date
Don’t worry. I’m not offended.
An internet profile never says much about anyone anyway. I’m largely recovered now.
That's good and I agree with that sentiment.
Although I would be lying if I didn't say that I use the internet to find validation for my beliefs. Heck this timeline confirms how Stalinism and Nazism have a lot common outside of economic policy.
Take your time, my dude (don't know your pronouns, sorry).
You're doing this at your own pace, and that's 100% ok!
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
I struggle with the 'Black Dog' as Churchill put it, and when that dog lies on my bed, there no writing to be done. Write when your happy to do it, not under a pressure to perform. I love the scary path you've taken with so many main players killed off, Sweden in much heavier, and the course of war so much more difficult to predict. Adding the quality photo's and exploring these lesser known personalities in unfamiliar roles is enjoyable to read, while dealing with the real life problems of that time, an good example is what Halifax has to do to become PM. Thank god no one stood against him in the byelection, no monster looney raving party then eh!
Chapter 28 – The Alliance (Part 1)
Chapter 28 – The Alliance (Part 1)
Formation of the Axis Powers
1936 – 1940
Formation of the Axis Powers
1936 – 1940
The Axis Powers of the Second World War formed largely in specific circumstances that would almost certainly have been different with just the slightest of changes in the years leading up to the invasion of Poland [1]. Indeed, the powers that came to comprise the Axis at first seemed to mutually antagonistic.
By 1936, Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party had been in power for three years. Those first three years had seen the establishment of a National Socialist one-party state, introduction of military rearmament, massive public works building shiny new roads, the building of an air force, the gearing of the economy slowly towards wartime (totally not ominous at all) and the creation of increasingly anti-Semitic domestic policies beginning with boycotts and escalating to the infamous Nuremberg Race Laws on 1935. Germany's relations with the rest of the world had to some degree been soured, by this time Hitler had already come close to starting a war with Italy in 1934 and made no secret of his desire to drive into Eastern Europe to destroy the "Judeo-Bolshevik" USSR and establish an autarkic state guided by the racial socialist vision laid out in Mein Kampf [2]. I mean, that's not at all wishful thinking, right? Right?
Within weeks of taking power in 1933, the Nazi government inherited an already bad relationship with another future Axis member, and proceeded to make it worse. This state's reasons for disliking the new government in Berlin included its paramilitaries beating up its students at German universities, the Nazi's plan to outlaw interracial relationships and providing military aid to the country that they were fighting against.
Yes, Japan had many reasons to be unhappy with Germany. They saw SA thugs beating up Japanese and other Asian students in Germany as an obviously racially-motivated insult. They also disliked German support to Generalissimo Chiang Kai-Shek since it meant that subjugating that country would be harder, I mean how unfair! Japan was also having an interesting time trying to find itself in the world having burnt many bridges with their invasion of Manchuria. With incendiary bombs and then discarding of the ashes in a very big river.
Well, technically the army attacked without government permission, but why let technicalities like that stop you when you can just ignore your government and do it anyway - then assassinate the Prime Minister because you don't like him?
Japan's new government's defiance towards the will of the rest of the world saw them arrogantly storm out of the League of Nations, a show that if you were just big and aggressive enough, you could take what you wanted, just like that. And that served as an example to yet another future Axis member. One arguably forced into expansionism by its inability to house its leader's ego within its present borders.
Japanese troops in Mukden, September 1931
The Italians were something of a trend setter. Fascism was the new big thing with its big parades, big plans and even bigger egos. Of course, like National Socialism that would emerge in Germany, Italian Fascism had some ideological weight behind it that convinced many of the unquestionable of "The Doctrine of Fascism." Essentially, take Marxist Socialism, replace class for nationality and replace internationalism with ultra-nationalism and you're almost there. Add a former leading member of the Italian Socialist Party and veteran of the Great War - a conflict who's aforementioned veteran's position on got him expelled from the Socialist Party - by the name of Benito Mussolini and you have almost everything. All you need now is a good war to show how big those muscles are.
After an initial crisis over the Greek island of Corfu, the fascist government of Italy sent the years of 1929 to 1934 fairly quietly on the foreign policy front, the most notable event being the brutal pacification of Libya. 1935 though saw Italy attempt to pull a Japan by invading Ethiopia, a country Italy had attempted to annex in 1896 - failing miserably. Second time around was more successful and the country fell largely by 1937 although resistance continued. The Second Italo-Ethiopian War was a brutal conflict, including the use of poison gas. But in the end, Ethiopia was annexed and Emperor Haile Selassie was forced into exile. As a result of the Italian invasion, the League of Nations imposed sanctions on Italy. One of the states to do this had a Pact with Italy, and is the final official founding member of the Axis.
The Soviet Union allying itself with Japan seemed the most likely alliance to form between any of the Axis states given that the two had just resolved their undeclared border war in Mongolia shortly before Moscow jumped into the Second World War.
But allying with the Fascists? No way! They are out to destroy the proletarian state. Anyone who doesn't believe so is an enemy of the revol…They've signed a what now? Ok I guess, whatever Stalin wants. The German and Soviet peoples have a fantastic working relationship and anyone who doubts this is an enemy of the revolution! Long live Stalin! Long live the revolution!
The Soviet Union had signed a pact with Italy in 1934, largely over access to resources and trade - the Italians desiring Soviet oil and coal whilst the Soviets showed an interest in the Italian automobile and aviation sectors - but also over stopping Germany from taking over the Balkans. The Fascists and the Communists working together against the Nazis? Reality is stranger than fiction sometimes [3]. For all that Soviet Communism was anti-fascist and Italian Fascism was anti-communist, the two states got along decently well - if you ignore the three times the Italians violated the pact. Firstly by supporting Franco in the Spanish Civil War whilst the Soviets backed the Republic. Secondly by sending military aid to the Finns during the Winter War, only for the Germans to intercept it and then return it to Italy leading to a legal dispute between Rome and Berlin in which the Italian equipment found itself stuck in warehouses in the Austrian Alps until the German government monetarily compensated the Finns for their losses [4]. The biggest violation by far was signing Germany and Japan's new Anti-Comintern Pact in 1937. There was also one more power associated with the Axis - the wildcard of you will - but more on them later.
By 1939, the Germans and Soviets were co-belligerents in the same war against Britain and France. With the fall of France, that list expanded to include Italy when they declared war. However, there was no formal alliance between any of these powers save for the Pact of Steel between Germany and Italy signed in 1939. Adolf Hitler would almost certainly never accept an alliance with the Soviets, but that was ok because he died in February 1940 [5] and his successors were willing - if only pragmatically - to court Moscow. Interest in extending a formal alliance to the Soviets existed with varying degrees of enthusiasm. The Soviets had already reached out to Italy with some positive outcomes. On the 25th of June, Molotov made a declaration to Italian ambassador Rosso saying:
"The USSR has no claims with regard to Hungary. Our relations with Hungary are normal. The USSR's considers that there is a basis for Hungary's claims against Romania.
With Bulgaria the USSR's relations are those of good neighbourliness. The basis exists for them to become closer. There is a basis for Bulgaria's claims against Romania, and also against Greece.
The fundamental claims of the USSR with respect to Romania are known. The USSR would like to obtain from Romania what belongs by right to the Soviet Union, without the application of force, but that will become necessary if Romania proves intransigent.
Regarding other territories of Romania, the USSR is mindful of the interests of Italy and Germany and is prepared to come to an understanding with them on this question.
Turkey arouses mistrust, given the unfriendly attitude she has displayed towards the USSR (and not the USSR alone) by the conclusion of a pact with Britain and France.
This mistrust is strengthened because of Turkey's tendency to dictate her own terms to the USSR about the Black Sea, claiming that she is the sole mistress of the Straits, and also because of the habit she has made of threatening the Soviet Union in the areas south-east of Batum.
As to the Mediterranean, the USSR considers it entirely just that Italy should hold a position of pre-eminence in that sea.
And here the USSR hopes that Italy will take into account the interests of the USSR as the principal power in the Black Sea. [6]"
Despite these friendly gestures, Moscow was aware that any settlements on the Balkans needed Berlin's input.
Other areas of interest for Moscow included the Far East, where Stalin was keen to secure his peace with Japan in order to focus on his southern front into the Middle East, as well as Scandinavia - where the Germans, Soviets, Swedes and British all jostled for influence. for the most part, the inclusion of Japan was almost guaranteed despite Göring's own doubts about their loyalty.
Sweden was that wildcard mentioned earlier. Despite being forced to concede largely to Germany on matters of foreign policy, she still attempted to wield some local power. On the 27th of August 1940, Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov arrived in Stockholm to meet with Prime Minister Hansson. In the meeting, Molotov informed the Swedes that the USSR "intends to secure its vital interests in Finland". It didn't take a genius to work out what this meant. Molotov also proposed recognising thre majority Swedish-speaking Åland Islands as a Swedish sphere of influence in return for recognition of Soviet "interests". Hansson, like with Ribbentrop months before, proved a tough negotiator and was determined not to give a firm answer to Molotov seeing the idea of partitioning soveriegn states somewhat disgusting and wrong. Unfortunately, Molotov was a lot more blunt than Ribbentrop had been and despite Swedish insistence on their "defensive war" in Lapland, Molotov pressed very hard for Sweden's position. The situation proved so stressful that Hansson called the meeting off [7]. The next day (the 28th), Molotov was recalled to Moscow. That same day, Sweden recived an invitation to send a delegation to Berlin to negotiate a formal alliance. Despite no wishes in the Swedish government to sign any formal alliances with Germany (or Russia for that matter), Prime Minister Hansson accepted the invitation, sending trusted Foreign Minister Günther to join Arvid Richert (Sweden's envoy in Berlin) to "test the waters" and establish the ground Sweden was working from.
Arriving on the 2nd of September, the Swedish delegation stayed largely in their embassy whilst with the other delegations toasted, gossiped and talked shit about the British. Sweden had several key issues at stake. One, preserve as much national independence as possible with regards to domestic and foreign policies. This meant no formal alliance with Berlin, Moscow, Rome or Tokyo if possible. Two, push the war as far away from Swedish borders as possible. This meant ensuring the British were pushed out of Norway - this inevitably meant supporting Germany's planned invasion of the country - as well as ensuring the Åland Islands remained demilitarised (Stockholm having realised by now that the Soviets were almost certainly going to attack Finland again).
On the 3rd, Günther met Molotov in a quiet side meeting. Almost instantly, Molotov just picked up from August with the same talking points - stunning the assembled Swedish delegates. After trying to avoid giving an answer, not simply wanting to sign away the fate of a country most Swedes felt sympathetic towards, Günther forwarded his progress to Hansson.
Christian Günther, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden
By now, Hansson - in Stockholm consulting with Defence Minister Per Edvin Sköld and Supreme Commander Olof Thörnell concerning the military situation - was encouraging Günther to "not oppose" Soviet interests in Finland as long as the Åland Islands remained demilitarised. Hansson, a skilled negotiator and pragmatist, had come to the conclusion that Finland was almost certainly going to be attacked again, keeping Soviet as far from Sweden as possible within the context of a conquered Finland seemed like the best strategy now [8]. Hansson also instructed his delegates in Berlin to see if the Soviets would be able to convince Germany to not pressure Sweden into signing a formal alliance - something almost certain without help from another great power. With his government's blessing, Günther informed the Soviet Foreign Minister that Sweden would recognise Soviet interests in Finland in exchange for recognition of the demilitarisation of the Åland Islands and support in negotiations with Germany regarding Sweden's participation in a formal alliance.
Olof Thörnell, Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces
Molotov informed the boss in Moscow, who replied in two words: "Accept it." Pleased enough with what was accomplished, the Swedes and Soviets shook hands and rejoined the main negotaitions. Now the Swdes would have to deal with Germany regarding the upcoming invasion of Norway.
Diplomacy is very hard work.
Footnotes
- [1] Ah, for want of a paragraph.
- [2] Having read Mein Kampf as a history student, I've always found the term "racial socialism" seems to describe Hitler's vision rather nicely. Of course, this doesn't diminish the evil imbedded within Nazi ideology in theory or in practice.
- [3] I'm really enjoying writing this update.
- [4] The Italians tried to send 35 Fiat fighters and 94,000 rifles just as in OTL before it was intercepted. In OTL the supplies were released after the war ended. Here, closer German-Soviet relations stop them ever reaching Finland.
- [5] See Chapter 4.
- [6] This was all said in OTL, word for word.
Sourced from Geoffrey Robert's "The Soviet Union and the Origins of the Second World War. Russo-German Relations and the Road to War, 1933-1941"
From Chapter 8, Crisis and Conflict. Citation: J. Degras (ed.), Soviet Documents on Foreign Policy, vol. 3 (Oxford, 1953), pp.457-8
- [7] Hitler did the same in OTL when negotiating with Molotov in November 1940 over Finland. Molotov was a famously blunt negotiator.
- [8] More detail on this in a future chapter.
Sources
Germany–Japan relations - Wikipedia
Italo-Soviet Pact - Wikipedia
Second Italo-Ethiopian War - Wikipedia
Christian Günther - Wikipedia
Announcements
I'm back! Also, I've made some alterations to Chapter 7.
This was quite a fun chapter to write but also a difficult one, so I split it into two parts.
Thoughts?
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@BurkeanLibCon nice to see that you are back! I really like the more "comedic" parts of this post.
The thing I'm wondering about is another, however: will Goering be able to convince Mussolini not to invade Yugoslavia in TTL early September 1940?
Isn't it ironic that the Italian Ambassador to the Soviet Union is named Rosso (Red)?
The thing I'm wondering about is another, however: will Goering be able to convince Mussolini not to invade Yugoslavia in TTL early September 1940?
Glad seeing another chapter, will a more cooperative Sweden and a non threatening Germany basically allow the USSR to absorb Finland? (Especially because the Red army will have more time to prepare and organize and Finland has basically been isolated from the outside world)
Yes, now conquering of Finland would be easier assuming that Brits are yet too tied when Soviets are ready for new match. Not sure how long these preparations would take. At least one year I guess.
Thanks, it’s good to be back. I thought Id try a new style and it’s actually easier for me to write - so I may use it more often.
Doesn’t spring to mind, no. When I first read that the first thing springing to mind was School of Rock!
I am really enjoying this--binge read it yesterday after too long away from it. Scary plausible!
Might I suggest at least a brief look across the Atlantic? The USA should be even more nervous than in OTL, with the Soviet Union as an ally of Germany.
I'd consider an earlier start to the Essex class carriers , or if the design isn't ready, a couple more Yorktown class carriers. Perhaps also startiung Missouri and Wisconsin earlier as well?
The invasion of Norway and Sweden is going to make it harder for Britain to play the "I Win" card (US entry into the war) or get lend-lease.
Might I suggest at least a brief look across the Atlantic? The USA should be even more nervous than in OTL, with the Soviet Union as an ally of Germany.
I'd consider an earlier start to the Essex class carriers , or if the design isn't ready, a couple more Yorktown class carriers. Perhaps also startiung Missouri and Wisconsin earlier as well?
The invasion of Norway and Sweden is going to make it harder for Britain to play the "I Win" card (US entry into the war) or get lend-lease.
Just wondering but will the US place an embargo on the Japan and the Axis powers like OTL?
If the Japanese still move into south Indochina then the USA will more than likely impose sanctions just like in OTL. However ITTL the USSR could in theory mitigate their effects by stepping up oil and metal deliveries with an economic agreement similar to the one that it struck with germans in OTL 1940.
I just figured FDR would be even more desperate to find an excuse to intervene than OTL.
At this point, would the US government rule out a false-flag strike against itself to get in the war faster? Nothing on the scale of Pearl Harbor of course but it wouldn't be hard to torpedo a ship heading for Britain and blame it on Germany. Of course morally (and legally) it would be wrong, but that hasn't stopped the US government before, even before WWII (not to mention post-war). Especially if the Germans and Soviets (it is much easier for the Germans now that they have an easy land/short sea route to Japan) can subvert the embargo by simply going through the Far East and the Sea of Japan, where the Americans and British can't stop them.
Korea may take a more important role in the Pacific war this time because it is much closer to Japan and for the Soviets, they can build a railway down the peninsula and it's just a short hop to the mainland from there, either by plane or boat. Sakhalin also, since it is the only Land border that Japan has and the Soviets can build a bridge across the straights or a larger port for easy 24/7 ferry access. I do believe that strait (here) freezes in the winter so trucks can drive over it or pontoon bridging could be built across it to supply Japan with fuel. I don't know how advanced pipeline technology was in the 1940's, but I don't think underwater pipelines for long distances (say from Vladivostok to Niigata) would be realistic.
The OTL Nazis were hilariously inept in the intelligence department (pun unavoidable
), but FDRs administration was full of Soviet Spies and Useful Idiots. In other words, if they try a false-flag attack to manufacture a Casus Belli, then smart money says it'll get leaked.Eh, it depends on the way it's organized. If it goes through hoops and official channels, it's more likely to be discovered - but does it have to go through official channels?The OTL Nazis were hilariously inept in the intelligence department (pun unavoidable
Since it's a false flag, there's a lot of incentives to avoid leaving trails and documentation in general.
And then, there's a question of whether Soviets would expose it any time soon - even with USA in the game, taking Moscow is hardly an easy task when your starting positions are somewhere around Flanders; And prolonged war means more chances for communist revolution either within allies or within Allies.