Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Jellico]

Errr... otl we took the shortcut of dropping 2 Abombs, but isolate and starve would have worked just fine.

Japan was starving in 1945 OTL and still prepared to resist.

The two basics that will be hit hard are oil and transportation. Oil for obvious reasons. Japan has plenty of coal, but as it becomes more difficult to run an air defense, the rail network will get hit. That will make life in the cities problematic because you can't feed them. You run into the side issue of how to get aircraft over Japan, but it will happen eventually.

The problem is eventually the situation will stabilize and normalize. The European war will have to be completed before Japan can be dealt with. People will go back to their villages. Invasion sites are obvious. Weapons, bunkers etc will be prepared and hidden. There will be lots of hunger, lots of dead, but you can't bomb everything so there will be a lot of fanatics left with a lot of weapons willing to keep the gaijin off the home islands at any cost. Essentially a North Korea situation.

 

[vetinari]

Just because other places participated, it doesn't mean Britain itself will. They still have a lot of commitments in Europe to cover, both the Occupation of Germany and watching for the Soviets, plus they still got hit in Blitz and later.

Didn't stop them from trying in OTL. They had a minor presence in the Occupation of Japan.

 

[justinmil22]

Just because other places participated, it doesn't mean Britain itself will. They still have a lot of commitments in Europe to cover, both the Occupation of Germany and watching for the Soviets, plus they still got hit in Blitz and later.

didn't the british give up their occupation of Japan to the aussies?

 

[MattII]

Didn't stop them from trying in OTL. They had a minor presence in the Occupation of Japan.

Australia/India ≠ Britain. Australia is a dominion, and India is fairly independent.

didn't the british give up their occupation of Japan to the aussies?

See above.

 

[Icedaemon]

I wonder if this defeat means that more forces are thrown into the next invasion attempt pell-mell in order to get back on schedule, or the Japanese come up with a new plan. They do have control of Sarawak at this point in time and already know that destroying oil infrastructure is part of the modus opperandi for the allies when there's even a chance of it falling to the enemy. Maybe rebuilding the facilities in Kuching and Brunei and taking a defensive stance until the war-winning (so they would think, I'd guess) Yamato is ready for battle or the Kido Butai are in theatre?

 

[vetinari]

Australia/India ≠ Britain. Australia is a dominion, and India is fairly independent.


See above.

The British part of BCOFJ - British Commonwealth Occupation Forces Japan was primarily a token and it didn't last all that long but it's forces were seperate to both Australia and India. The initial BCOF presence included the Australian 34th Brigade; the 9th Brigade, 2nd New Zealand Expeditionary Force (J Force); and the British Indian Division (BRINDIV) (later known as BRINJAP), a composite British and Indian division made up of the British 5th Infantry Brigade Group (from 2nd Infantry Division in India), and the 268th Indian Infantry Brigade. BCOF was supported by the Women's Auxiliary Service (Burma) (which derived its name from its formation during the Second World War, to provide amenities to Commonwealth forces in the Burmese campaign). The air component, known as the British Commonwealth Air Forces (BCAIR), initially comprised the Royal Australian Air Force's No. 81 Fighter Wing, four Spitfire squadrons (including No. 11 and No. 17 of the Royal Air Force and No. 4 of the Indian Air Force), and No. 14 Squadron of the Royal New Zealand Air Force. By 1948, BCOF was solely staffed by Australian military personnel, with all British, Indian and New Zealand troops withdrawn from the occupation.

 

[MattII]

The British part of BCOFJ - British Commonwealth Occupation Forces Japan was primarily a token and it didn't last all that long but it's forces were seperate to both Australia and India. The initial BCOF presence included the Australian 34th Brigade; the 9th Brigade, 2nd New Zealand Expeditionary Force (J Force); and the British Indian Division (BRINDIV) (later known as BRINJAP), a composite British and Indian division made up of the British 5th Infantry Brigade Group (from 2nd Infantry Division in India), and the 268th Indian Infantry Brigade. BCOF was supported by the Women's Auxiliary Service (Burma) (which derived its name from its formation during the Second World War, to provide amenities to Commonwealth forces in the Burmese campaign). The air component, known as the British Commonwealth Air Forces (BCAIR), initially comprised the Royal Australian Air Force's No. 81 Fighter Wing, four Spitfire squadrons (including No. 11 and No. 17 of the Royal Air Force and No. 4 of the Indian Air Force), and No. 14 Squadron of the Royal New Zealand Air Force. By 1948, BCOF was solely staffed by Australian military personnel, with all British, Indian and New Zealand troops withdrawn from the occupation.

The fact that it had defaulted to an Australian force by 1948 was an indication that Britain realised it couldn't afford it.

 

[vetinari]

The fact that it had defaulted to an Australian force by 1948 was an indication that Britain realised it couldn't afford it.

Which reinforces my point, "Didn't stop them from trying in OTL. They had a minor presence in the Occupation of Japan."

 

[MattII]

Which reinforces my point, "Didn't stop them from trying in OTL. They had a minor presence in the Occupation of Japan."

I don't imagine they'll do much more here.

 

[vetinari]

I don't imagine they'll do much more here.

Is that an admission you were wrong in your assertion? Personally, I think they will do more here. It all depends on how it is written.

 

[MattII]

Is that an admission you were wrong in your assertion? Personally, I think they will do more here. It all depends on how it is written.

They're still badly in debt, and have commitments elsewhere. They might put in a few more troops initially, but I wouldn't expect them to stick around much longer than OTL.

 

[X Oristos]

I wonder if this defeat means that more forces are thrown into the next invasion attempt pell-mell in order to get back on schedule, or the Japanese come up with a new plan. They do have control of Sarawak at this point in time and already know that destroying oil infrastructure is part of the modus opperandi for the allies when there's even a chance of it falling to the enemy. Maybe rebuilding the facilities in Kuching and Brunei and taking a defensive stance until the war-winning (so they would think, I'd guess) Yamato is ready for battle or the Kido Butai are in theatre?

The problem is that the oil in British Borneo and Tarakan is insufficient for the needs of the japanese war economy. They have to get to Sumatra and Java as soon as possible.

Source: The Operations of the IJN in DEI and Bay of Bengal

 

[MattII]

The problem is that the oil in British Borneo and Tarakan is insufficient for the needs of the japanese war economy. They have to get to Sumatra and Java as soon as possible.

View attachment 802035

Source: The Operations of the IJN in DEI and Bay of Bengal

Well right now, they don't have any of Sumatra, Java, or Burma, and they've thus far failed to take Sanga Sanga, so their total production capacity (by that table) is ~1.62 million tonnes per year. Then you try to work out how heavy a toll Allied Submarines will inflict. Japan is really in the toilet now, aren't they?

Of course, I can't see them getting 'victory disease' this time around, because that would require them to actually have had a victory, and thus far they haven't, at least against the British.

 

[Derek Pullem]

The problem is that the oil in British Borneo and Tarakan is insufficient for the needs of the japanese war economy. They have to get to Sumatra and Java as soon as possible.

View attachment 802035

Source: The Operations of the IJN in DEI and Bay of Bengal

Of course that is before the facilities were wrecked. Even the relatively poor job done in destroying the oilfields reduced Japanese oil production from these captured fields to c. 4 million barre;s per month (~6.5 million tonnes per year, 7.5 bbl ~ 1 tonne). Tanker constraints meant that they could only transport around a third of that (2.2 million tonnes per year). So actually, failing to capture the oil fields ITTL may not significantly change their potential oil extraction capacity.

Assuming they only capture Borneo in this timeline then their potential production is 2.7 million tonnes of which they will probably be able to produce 1.9 million tonnes per year. They will have sufficient tanker capacity for this amount. However, this ignores the much stronger naval and air forces based much closer to the oilfields if Singapore, Java and Sumatra are held.

Japanese consumption looked like this

The Pacific War Online Encyclopedia: Oil

My guess would be we'd see the oil catastrophe for Japan start a year earlier if they only held Borneo

 

[MattII]

It's not like they even hold all of Borneo, the force intended for Balikpapan got wrecked. One question on my mind is who hold Pontianak? Being less than 150 miles from Sarawak, it's a fairly critical place to hold for either side.

I can imagine someone in the Japanese command saying something along the lines of "Attacking an enemy who had already proven victorious in other battles was not, on the face of it, a particularly wise decision."

 

[kelgar04]

Makes me wonder how japanese oil production will look this time I mean they are way behind in Malaysia and the Burma prong has basically been stripped to feed the Malaysia fight. It's looking increasingly that the Japanese won't be able to take Malaysia and with the destruction of the Invasion force that were trying to take Balikpapan.

Can the Japanese really gain any significant source of oil?

 

[MattII]

Makes me wonder how japanese oil production will look this time I mean they are way behind in Malaysia and the Burma prong has basically been stripped to feed the Malaysia fight. It's looking increasingly that the Japanese won't be able to take Malaysia and with the destruction of the Invasion force that were trying to take Balikpapan.

Can the Japanese really gain any significant source of oil?

There's no 'Malaysia' at this point, instead you have Malaya, Sarawak and North Borneo, which are three separate colonies/protectorates. Sarawak and North Borneo have been taken (along with Brunei).

 

[Derek Pullem]

Makes me wonder how japanese oil production will look this time I mean they are way behind in Malaysia and the Burma prong has basically been stripped to feed the Malaysia fight. It's looking increasingly that the Japanese won't be able to take Malaysia and with the destruction of the Invasion force that were trying to take Balikpapan.

Can the Japanese really gain any significant source of oil?

If the Japanese prioritise Borneo I think they can take and hold the island and its oil.

Burma, Sumatra and Java are all out of reach at the moment.

Taking Borneo without Singapore, Sumatra and Java is a bit like holding Ploesti while the Allies are in Greece. Better than nothing but don't expect to get all the oil out.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

You appear, like most Northern Hemisphereans seem to have forgotten several major players who did take part in the Occupation of Japan - Australia and India. They each had substantial forces involved. Australia had a battalion of infantry - 3 RAR, a Squadron of armour cars, 77 Squadron RAAF and several ships. India had several ships IIRC.

Sir I did not forget about the Australian, New Zealand and Indian forces that IOTL took part alongside the British in the initial occupation of Japan, much to American disquiet, Dougout Doug didn’t want anyone else playing in his sandbox. I chose to ignore this event from OTL as it isn’t relevant to the events of TTL, where the principal reason that the British and others were involved initially in the occupation. All of these nations had significant numbers of POW’S in Japan who had been transported there, to act as slave labour, and needed to be found, rescued and repatriated to their home countries. And the British and others were not going to rely on the Americans to do this job, given that they had no doubt that the American authorities would prioritise the welfare of the American detainees over their personnel. Once the British had to their satisfaction established that all their subjects had been recovered they quickly left, as did the Indian forces, as India having received its independence saw no need to be involved in the occupation of Japan. I can not speak to why the Australians chose to remain, as I am not an expert on Australian history or politics.

Now ITTL, without the capture and surrender of Singapore, and other major captures in Burma and the DEI’s, there will be very few in comparison ‘British’ POW’S in Japanese captivity, and I doubt that the Japanese will have transferred many to Japan. Thus unlike the Americans who will have large numbers of their and Philippines personal in Japanese custody and having been transferred to Japan. The British and their Imperial allies will have no underlying reason to be involved in a costly occupation of Japan. Remember IOTL, the late Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh was present in Tokyo Bay during the signing of the Japanese Surrender in 1945, and the ship he was on was used to receive some of the first British captives released from captivity. Later on in life when the Japanese Emperor made a state visit to Britain, it was only his sense of duty to his adopted nation and wife, that enabled him to be in the company of a man he held responsible for the suffering he personally saw. His uncle Lord Mountbatten initially refused to meet with the Emperor, and had to be strong armed by the Government and Royal Family, into one short meeting, thus avoiding causing a diplomatic incident. He had as SAC overseen the repatriation of off many men that had survived their captivity and been used by the Japanese as slave labour. And was want to never forget or forgive, thus his initial refusal to meet with the Japanese Emperor.

RR.

 

[X Oristos]

A few thoughts on Ambon based on further reading. The importance of Ambon, other than its harbor and airfield, stemmed from its location in the axis of advance to Timor. By capturing Timor they would isolate Java from Australia since Timor was used to ferry aircraft to Java. They also overstimated the RAAF contingent at Ambon. According to the "Operations of the Navy at the DEI and Bay of Bengal", they estimated 100 australian aircraft in Timor and Ambon. As early as December 27th they were alarmed by reinforcements pouring in DEI from Australia:

In the meantime, problems that needed to be discussed by the Army and Navy commanders were piling up also on the Navy side, including the situation of recent enemy reinforcements brought up from Australia (mainly by way of Port Darwin), [which led the Navy to think that] it was urgently necessary to swiftly seize the Ambon – Kupang line.

In OTL they had even prioritized Timor over Makassar.

In TTL, the advance in Malaya has been running behind schedule and very soon it will be stopped cold. Under these conditions, they cannot have the convoy carrying the 2nd Division to steam in the vicinity of Singapore. They will have to re-route it towards the Makassar Strait - more time is needed. The landing in western Java is abandoned and both sides know that the hammer will fall in eastern Java.

Under these conditions, the importance of the Ambon-Kupang axis is even more important than OTL, to both cover the flank of the now single axis of advance towards Java and isolate DEI from Australia. Having said that, they will face in Ambon a numerically superior force, in a place with limited landing sites where in OTL they had already been identified by the Allies. Fun times ahead!

Therefore, considering both their OTL plans, assumptions and strategy and TTL developments, the case for the 48th Division at Balikpapan is getting even stronger.