Japan has practically no chance of getting Hawaii with a POD after 1815, barring the terminal collapse of US influence in the Pacific. Hawaii had a ton of links to Britain and likely would have become a protectorate of the British Empire like Tonga or Fiji. Since unlike Fiji, Hawaii's monarchy was fairly stable in the late 19th century, it would likely have regained independence as a constitutional monarchy with racially charged and potentially unstable domestic politics because of tension between indigenous Hawaiians and outsiders (who would be mostly Indian--the Asian and white community would be a much smaller minority, likely not much more than 10% combined).What if the United States did not take over Hawaii?
I would guess Japan might do the same. Would be interesting to see how this flipped the dynamic of power in the Pacific during the 20th century.
More immediately, might it also make a US invasion of the Philippines less likely?
The interesting part would be what might happen if the UK and Japan still have a falling out like OTL in the 1930s and end up at war. Japan could theoretically have a much easier time invading a British Hawaii than an American Hawaii, but there wouldn't really be a reason to given that it would be a tertiary goal at best compared to neutralising Singapore, Australia and other parts of the British Empire in the Pacific.