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Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100
"...across a sixty mile front, over six hundred thousand men, most of them fresh recruits who had undergone no more than the mandatory 75 days of basic training, were thrown across the Susquehanna two days before the Confederates' fresh reinforcements were to arrive. They were preceded and supported by an artillery barrage of historic proportions at key points along the river - major fords and crossing points - and air cover from fourteen airplanes, half of the entire Army Aviation Section, deployed for scouting and light strafing purposes, where backseat co-pilots could fire rifles at men on the ground and even drop hand grenades if from a low enough height. The attack on March 21st, at almost exactly the same time as the push towards the Kentucky River on the other side of the Appalachians, was matched by a second assault begun in the late afternoon of that same day with an American army of four entire divisions of recruits and Michigan National Guardsmen collected at Bedford, Pennsylvania and in the days before the attack maneuvered to attack the Confederate garrison at Breezewood while sending a division south to the contested town of Cumberland, Maryland - thus threatening the Confederate lines of retreat to Harpers Ferry. The Confederates' spent frontline soldiers fought aggressively but it was the first battle in the East in which they did not enjoy an artillery advantage and the curiously well-timed assault (the United States had intercepted Confederate troop rotation and logistics shipments communiques, allowing them to attack on the most advantageous day) broke through at York Haven, just south of the US's main crossing base at Three Mile Island, today home of a major nuclear power station. On the 22nd, a second breakthrough was made at Wrightsville, and on the 24th the Elkton Pocket collapsed and the Confederates were forced to retreat to Perryville and Charlestown to be evacuated under cover of naval fire.

The key to attack, however, was the Bedford Salient. By attacking the lines of retreat for the Confederacy and their supply lines from the rear and side, it scrambled Confederate decision-making. In York, Summerlin and Patrick debated what was next; they could not afford to have a Union Army sitting in Chambersburg ready to attack them from behind, or turn south and retake Hagerstown and march into the Shenandoah Valley, one of the breadbaskets of Virginia which had helped feed the armies in Pennsylvania through the winter, even if meagerly. The Confederacy had deployed its miniscule number of aeroplanes and air balloons for scouting purposes at the south end of the line in support of the Elkton Pocket or in other theaters, and had not seen or realized the size of the troop buildup in Bedford, which they had believed was aimed at Cumberland en toto anyways to support the besieged West Virginian National Guardsmen trying to prevent a Confederate advance into their state from the east. By the morning of the 24th, McConnellsburg was threatened and the reinforcements marching up from Virginia would be forced to hold south of Chambersburg to potentially repel the Union. In theory, this meant that the Confederacy would have considerably larger numbers of soldiers they would have otherwise in the theater, but the attrition was nonetheless severe.

The York Offensive was thus a strategic success for the United States, in that it forced Patrick to make a crucial decision to abandon the Susquehanna line and withdraw to Baltimore. This had always been an option open to Patrick, who had given every divisional and corps commander strict orders about which routes to use if pulling back in fighting retreats, with commands to also destroy whatever they retreated past in a scorched-earth maneuver to "deny the Yankee his own lands." On the evening of the 24th of March, with American soldiers at the city's outskirts, Patrick ordered his retreating soldiers to put York to the torch, letting the Americans sort out trying to put out the raging fires. Confederates pulled out during the night from other points across the theater, withdrawing to defensible points across northern Maryland in a pre-prepared line from Frederick [1] to Aberdeen centered upon Pipe Creek, linking up with the reinforcements who had already halted at that line upon receiving orders from Patrick. The offensive had been a preview of future American offensives in the Eastern Theater over the next two years, in which the Confederates would carefully choose the place of battle and inflict highly disproportionate casualties even in defeat, and part of the reason why the myth of superior Confederate tactical and strategic commanders persists to this day, particular south of the Ohio. [2] Between the initial assaults over the river on March 21st and the decision three days later to withdraw to the Pipe Creek Line, the Confederacy had sustained twenty-two thousand casualties, a high but not overwhelming number compared to the seventy-nine thousand men wounded or killed on the American side trying to force their way across the river, and the planned contingency retreat had been mostly a success, with infrastructure the Americans could have found valuable at York and Hanover destroyed behind them, particularly railroad connections. The United States would not forget this style of warfare anytime soon, and would repeat it in turn before long, most infamously in Georgia. [3]

Mostly, because upon Summerlin's return to his own headquarters at Carlisle he received intelligence that McConnellsburg's defenses had not held and his corps across from Harrisburg was now threatened with being cut off from its withdrawal lines through Chambersburg to Hagerstown. Summerlin essentially had two options: continue his retreat as intended, with an American army behind him and in front of him engaging the reinforcement division meant to resupply him and replace his most exhausted men, or head southeast rather than southwest, breaking for the Pipe Creek Line as quickly as possible to reinforce Patrick's men in the defense of Baltimore. Both moves were unideal and carried a great deal of risk, but Summerlin had more confidence in a combined defense at Pipe Creek than in his own corps potentially getting trapped and annihilated and so he made an understandable gamble and after setting Carlisle aflame tacked out southwards late in the night.

What he did not realize was that the aerial advantage of the United States - even with eight of their fourteen planes shot down during the opening days of the York Offensive - allowed Liggett and his staff to identify what Summerlin was trying to do early in the morning of the 25th and thus rushed men from York and Chambersburg aggressively to attempt to intercept him, commanded personally by Liggett's chief aide, General George Cameron. The American armies looked likely to encounter Summerlin's fleeing soldiers at a small township halfway between Chambersburg and Hanover called Gettysburg..." [4]

- Making Sense of the Senseless: The Great American War at 100

[1] You've noticed by now I'm sure that the Confederacy has made a lot of use of this particular strategy of having a pre-planned fallback line in anticipation of a fighting retreat, viewing a tactical retreat to be able to counterstrike a good strategy for keeping pace with the Yankees. This didn't entirely work for them in northern Kentucky, obviously, but its already a sounder strategy than the Western Allies in WW1 deciding that it was time to just throw another fifty thousand boys into the meatgrinder because this time it'll totally work, and speaks to Confederate awareness of some of their logistical and manpower disadvantages when they're so close to the border. (Whether its too smart for WW1-era generals reared on trying to be the next Napoleon at Jena... well, YMMV)
[2] Plus ca change...
[3] Bill Sherman would be proud, is all I'll say...
[4] Subtlety, what is it
 
We're getting close to the OTL era of Democrats breaking through in New England. There's plenty of Irish immigrants in New England OTL and ITTL so he could win in MA or RI as a Senator, Rep, or Governor as the harbinger of a changing political region.
MA in particular is pretty ripe with Boston's big Irish population, and RI is getting there soon too. Dev was from New Jersey I believe though he did move back to Ireland as a boy so "from" is doing a lot of work there haha
I mean, the vibes I've been getting both from your own discussion and the TL itself is that the party system the U.S. is headed towards is between the economically interventionist and socially conservative Democrats and the socially liberal and economically laissez faire Liberals (so a cleaner small vs. big government split), with a few third parties that are stronger than those of OTL. Which makes for an interesting difference, rather than the general tendency to just flip the parties and/or replace one of them that by the modern day is just the old party but with a different name (TL-191 being the most obvious example), except in the cases where they go for a three-party system (like a continuation of TL-191 on this website), instead we get two parties that don't neatly resemble those of our other timeline.
Although apart from that part about stronger third parties, which has been explicit, I could be entirely wrong.
That's more or less precisely where we're headed. There'll be factions in each party on social issues of course but this is broadly correct, class, economic and to an increasingly lesser extent sectarian/ethnic issues are what separate the parties (as @DanMcCollum has coined it, two very different definitions of nationalism - assimilation vs. civic nationalism)
 
In terms of Gettysburg, it is the type of battle that is *very* different than OTL Gettysburg. iOTL, the confederates were not *actively* trying to disengage during the battle (they had a hope of winning and continuing) iTTL, the confederates are *trying* to disengage knowing that the longer that they stay there, the more troops the US can bring to the location.

The other question is when things stabilize, how far south will the Union control both sides of the Susquehanna. Even pre-prepared trenches on land are not as good as rivers for this type of fighting, and there *really* isn't a good river boundary going in the right direction until you get to Potomac. (The Patuxent (border between Montgomery county and Howard County) looks good on a modern map, but that is because it is dammed.)

Note, this also means that the Confederacy has functionally abandoned (or is *trying to abandon*) Pennsylvania and Philadelphia is under *considerably* less threat.
 
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On the British Empire, i wonder if other colonial subjects will smell the blood in the water with the situation in Ireland, OTL the Ghadarites(who already made an appearence) had planned a muttinee in 1915 while Britain was 'busy' in France. Would also be an opportunity for the Afghans to declare independence 4 years earlier(and who knows, maybe snatch some Pashtun land).

A major revolt in the 'crown jewel' and the 'emerald isle' seems like Britain's very own "crisis of the third century".
 
[1] You've noticed by now I'm sure that the Confederacy has made a lot of use of this particular strategy of having a pre-planned fallback line in anticipation of a fighting retreat, viewing a tactical retreat to be able to counterstrike a good strategy for keeping pace with the Yankees. This didn't entirely work for them in northern Kentucky, obviously, but its already a sounder strategy than the Western Allies in WW1 deciding that it was time to just throw another fifty thousand boys into the meatgrinder because this time it'll totally work, and speaks to Confederate awareness of some of their logistical and manpower disadvantages when they're so close to the border. (Whether its too smart for WW1-era generals reared on trying to be the next Napoleon at Jena... well, YMMV)
You are being a bit harsh on WWI generals. Don't get me wrong, there were several guys who were brutally inept (looking at you, Luigi Cadorna and Enver Pasha!) but a lot of the failures were because there were no good solutions. If you haven't read it this piece on trench warfare (and its sequel linked in the text) does a much better explanation of the problems that even good generals faced.
 
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A Senator Dev wouldn’t be a bad idea… and it’d be interesting to toy with a Democrat who’s a rock-ribbed social conservative Catholic but also very open to state intervention and paternalism economically. He’d be a good fit for the TL, certainly
I suspect you already have a list of Presidents prepared but that someone like Delavera gives you an option still if you want to take it.

Or maybe a pain in the ass Senator Pro-tem. :p
Patrick ordered his retreating soldiers to put York to the torch, letting the Americans sort out trying to put out the raging fires. Confederates pulled out during the night from other points across the theater, withdrawing to defensible points across northern Maryland in a pre-prepared line from Frederick [1] to Aberdeen centered upon Pipe Creek, linking up with the reinforcements who had already halted at that line upon receiving orders from Patrick. The offensive had been a preview of future American offensives in the Eastern Theater over the next two years, in which the Confederates would carefully choose the place of battle and inflict highly disproportionate casualties even in defeat, and part of the reason why the myth of superior Confederate tactical and strategic commanders persists to this day, particular south of the Ohio. [2] Between the initial assaults over the river on March 21st and the decision three days later to withdraw to the Pipe Creek Line, the Confederacy had sustained twenty-two thousand casualties, a high but not overwhelming number compared to the seventy-nine thousand men wounded or killed on the American side trying to force their way across the river, and the planned contingency retreat had been mostly a success, with infrastructure the Americans could have found valuable at York and Hanover destroyed behind them, particularly railroad connections. The United States would not forget this style of warfare anytime soon, and would repeat it in turn before long, most infamously in Georgia. [3]
Ooooh.
Confederate Pipe Creek line.
and a modern March through Georgia incoming.
 
With luck, the March through Georgia will start in Augusta and go west. :)

Though this indicates that the USA had four times the Casualties of the CSA in the battles (to this point), which I don't *think* is sustainable. They need to get the Casualties down to under three to one.

Also, I wonder if this retreat means that Hagerstown is no longer controlled by the CSA (I presume it was taken in the initial push.)
 
So the USA likely lost 20,000 killed in 2-3 days of fighting, Yikes.
Ayup. Somme-Marne levels of carnage for the US trying to get over that river. They succeed, but it’s with a massive price
In terms of Gettysburg, it is the type of battle that is *very* different than OTL Gettysburg. iOTL, the confederates were not *actively* trying to disengage during the battle (they had a hope of winning and continuing) iTTL, the confederates are *trying* to disengage knowing that the longer that they stay there, the more troops the US can bring to the location.

The other question is when things stabilize, how far south will the Union control both sides of the Susquehanna. Even pre-prepared trenches on land are not as good as rivers for this type of fighting, and there *really* isn't a good river boundary going in the right direction until you get to Potomac. (The Patuxent (border between Montgomery county and Howard County) looks good on a modern map, but that is because it is dammed.)

Note, this also means that the Confederacy has functionally abandoned (or is *trying to abandon*) Pennsylvania and Philadelphia is under *considerably* less threat.
Right. It’s not a like for like analogy/inspiration but couldn’t resist.

What really breaks the offensive is the Bedford maneuver, but the US is running out of places where it can do stuff like crashing into the back end of Confederate logistics as they did from Tucson in threatening the back of the Socorro Line and a similar maneuver at Mayfield/Ashland to collapse the Warsaw Line from the east in Northern Kentucky. The now three major successes of the US have all come from being able to thrust troops into Confederate flanks from their own territory at the theater rather than tactical level, something they are going to have a very difficult time doing moving forward.
You are being a bit harsh on WWI generals. Don't get me wrong, there were several guys who were brutally inept (looking at you, Luigi Cadorna and Enver Pasha!) but a lot of the failures were because there were no good solutions. If you haven't read it this piece on trench warfare (and its sequel linked in the text) does a much better explanation of the problems that even good generals faced.
Yeah, true, plus the WW1 generals had way more geographically constrained theaters to work within than “the entirety of south-central Pennsylvania” lol

I suspect you already have a list of Presidents prepared but that someone like Delavera gives you an option still if you want to take it.

Or maybe a pain in the ass Senator Pro-tem. :p

Ooooh.
Confederate Pipe Creek line.
and a modern March through Georgia incoming.
To an extent. I have what party holds the Presidency what years (I.e. we know Liberals have 1913-21, Dems have 1921-19xx, etc) but there are several Presidents I haven’t plugged into various gaps yet, especially further down the line.

That said a grouchy old Senator Dev from, say, New Jersey or Mass or wherever has a certain appeal 😂
With luck, the March through Georgia will start in Augusta and go west. :)

Though this indicates that the USA had four times the Casualties of the CSA in the battles (to this point), which I don't *think* is sustainable. They need to get the Casualties down to under three to one.

Also, I wonder if this retreat means that Hagerstown is no longer controlled by the CSA (I presume it was taken in the initial push.)
Yeah, the US is consistently getting bled badly by the more composed Confederates in their offensives as the CSA (smartly) trades land for bodies while bringing reinforcements and new recruits to bear. This isn’t sustainable at all, as the US is about to discover

Hagerstown is where the backup armies of the CSA stopped one their advance/retreat line from Chambersburg to Carlisle was cut by the one-and-a-half corps from Bedford. So it’s still in Confederate hands, but a bit ancillary to the action along Pipe Creek Line
This reminds of the discussion a little while ago on Bi-Centennial Man, and with a further back PoD, it'll be interesting to see if maybe nuclear power can do better ITTL than in OTL or BCM.

Oh my God yes please.
It’ll be a lot better. There’ll be countries with 90% or thereabouts of their electricity from nuclear by present day, with that percentage dropping as wind, solar, hydro etc gets more and more developed and nuke fleets age and in some cases aren’t super cost effective to repair, limiting their immediate upside. So what you see is the renewable transition starting around the same time as OTL, but with coal and even most nat gas already phased out in much of the developed world.
 
On the British Empire, i wonder if other colonial subjects will smell the blood in the water with the situation in Ireland, OTL the Ghadarites(who already made an appearence) had planned a muttinee in 1915 while Britain was 'busy' in France. Would also be an opportunity for the Afghans to declare independence 4 years earlier(and who knows, maybe snatch some Pashtun land).

A major revolt in the 'crown jewel' and the 'emerald isle' seems like Britain's very own "crisis of the third century".
Wanted to address this individually, because I’m pretty sure you hacked my notes 😜

In all seriousness though, yes. The Ghadar Mutiny is on deck, though very different context. These are twin crises for a Britain that has a very small army. I like your analogy for how apocalyptic this could get for the UK in having to deal with these two things at once (Ghadarites often had close contact with IRB/IRA members too, fwiw). Hugh Cecil is also… not exactly who I’d want in charge of a Britain dealing with this and the fallout of the Great Unrest at the same time, and there’s a reason why the more strongman style of conservatism of William “Jix” Joynson-Hicks will be appealing to the exhausted and battered Britons of the 1920s
 
Oh my God yes please.

Oh god, yes, I could totally see this. I wonder how Dev would get along with Joe Kennedy - Develera had a moralistic streak a mile wide and would be horrified by Kennedy's affairs and other activities. But he was also a consumate politician. Of all of the Kennedy kids, I could see him becoming a bit of a mentor to Bobby in the right circumstances, which would be fascinating in it's own way.

Maybe his son Vivian marries one of the Kennedy girls; merging to great Irish-American dynasties together. LOL :D
 
Oh god, yes, I could totally see this. I wonder how Dev would get along with Joe Kennedy - Develera had a moralistic streak a mile wide and would be horrified by Kennedy's affairs and other activities. But he was also a consumate politician. Of all of the Kennedy kids, I could see him becoming a bit of a mentor to Bobby in the right circumstances, which would be fascinating in it's own way.

Maybe his son Vivian marries one of the Kennedy girls; merging to great Irish-American dynasties together. LOL :D
Since we’re going to have a different take on the Kennedys ITTL than utopian Camelot nostalgia that’s been done a million times some interconnection between them and Dev would make a world of sense for what I have in mind
 
Whether its too smart for WW1-era generals reared on trying to be the next Napoleon at Jena... well, YMMV
Its kinda of nessicarry for the Confederates to actually pose a threat and well, that is a exaggerated stereotype. The officers of World War One were in the main, not total fucking idiots (the Cardonas excluded of course), World War one was just that terrifying a war that the methods they tried did not work.
 
Ayup. Somme-Marne levels of carnage for the US trying to get over that river. They succeed, but it’s with a massive price

Right. It’s not a like for like analogy/inspiration but couldn’t resist.

What really breaks the offensive is the Bedford maneuver, but the US is running out of places where it can do stuff like crashing into the back end of Confederate logistics as they did from Tucson in threatening the back of the Socorro Line and a similar maneuver at Mayfield/Ashland to collapse the Warsaw Line from the east in Northern Kentucky. The now three major successes of the US have all come from being able to thrust troops into Confederate flanks from their own territory at the theater rather than tactical level, something they are going to have a very difficult time doing moving forward.

Yeah, true, plus the WW1 generals had way more geographically constrained theaters to work within than “the entirety of south-central Pennsylvania” lol


To an extent. I have what party holds the Presidency what years (I.e. we know Liberals have 1913-21, Dems have 1921-19xx, etc) but there are several Presidents I haven’t plugged into various gaps yet, especially further down the line.

That said a grouchy old Senator Dev from, say, New Jersey or Mass or wherever has a certain appeal 😂

Yeah, the US is consistently getting bled badly by the more composed Confederates in their offensives as the CSA (smartly) trades land for bodies while bringing reinforcements and new recruits to bear. This isn’t sustainable at all, as the US is about to discover

Hagerstown is where the backup armies of the CSA stopped one their advance/retreat line from Chambersburg to Carlisle was cut by the one-and-a-half corps from Bedford. So it’s still in Confederate hands, but a bit ancillary to the action along Pipe Creek Line

It’ll be a lot better. There’ll be countries with 90% or thereabouts of their electricity from nuclear by present day, with that percentage dropping as wind, solar, hydro etc gets more and more developed and nuke fleets age and in some cases aren’t super cost effective to repair, limiting their immediate upside. So what you see is the renewable transition starting around the same time as OTL, but with coal and even most nat gas already phased out in much of the developed world.
I think the best way to put this that the current fronts are straightening out relative to what the border looked like. Unfortunately, in the East, I doubt the Railroads would allow for a significant number of troops to be put on the Eastern side of West Virginia, much south of the Panhandle. That may depend on where the coal mines which were developed iTTL are.

I'm having problems visualizing the lines at this moment (how close to Baltimore have the Federals gotten, where at what point do the Confederates hold both sides of the Potomac, etc. I would imagine, however that this won't stabilize until after Gettysburg. Unfortunately, the Confederates falling back may place Baltimore in Union artillery Range.Poor, poor Baltimore.
 
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I think the best way to put this that the current fronts are straightening out relative to what the border looked like. Unfortunately, in the East, I doubt the Railroads would allow for a significant number of troops to be put on the Eastern side of West Virginia, much south of the Panhandle. That may depend on where the coal mines which were developed iTTL are.

I'm having problems visualizing the lines at this moment (how close to Baltimore have the Federals gotten, where at what point do the Confederates hold both sides of the Potomac, etc. I would imagine, however that this won't stabilize until after Gettysburg. Unfortunately, the Confederates falling back may place Baltimore in Union artillery Range.Poor, poor Baltimore.
Yeah, the ability of the US to threaten the Shenandoah from the west will be limited, that’s for sure, and those mountain passes are hard to March across with a 1910s Army with wholly different logistical needs

Pipe Creek to Frederick is basically the line for now, the US is mostly still up around York consolidating their crossing of the Susquehanna and digesting those staggering casualties before pressing further south. Save the coming clash at Gettysburg, both sides have time to regroup
 
@KingSweden24 Do you know colonel François De La Rocque ? IOTL he was a WWI veteran and french nationalist politician in the 30s, leading the Parti Social Français (French Social Party). He and his party had ideas like a stronger presidential regime to end the instability of the parliementary Third Republic, and despite being rather conservative, they wanted to give women voting rights and opposed antisemitism (De La Rocque make sure to exclude militants who didn't renounced antisemitism from the party).

I think he would just fit perfectly in Cinco de Mayo France !
 
Edward de Valera (or George de Valero), famed Notre Dame rugby coach. Maybe a political career later in life.
Knute Rockne, championship rugby player, college career interrupted by war.
George Gipp, US Army. Medal of Honor (posthumous).
 
Wanted to address this individually, because I’m pretty sure you hacked my notes 😜
I had the same idea for a potential timeline lol(i even made a thread to get more opinions on the Ghadar, my idea though was ireland+india+egypt in this order), but im glad someone is actually doing it
 
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