AH: what if japan became a state after operation downfall

my idea is that instead of dropping the A-bombs America Britain and Russia proceeded with operation downfall there were heavy casualties on both sides Russia decides to focus on Germany which leads America and Britain to occupy japan however Britain leaves only leaving America and in 1959 japan becomes a state along with Hawaii
 
That seems incredibly unlikely for a number of reasons:
1) It would be blatant Imperialism which the US was emphatically opposed to. Sure, some low-level stuff was ignored but annexing a country of at least 50 million people (population was 72 million in 1945, I'm assuming massive casualties in a Downfall scenario) on the other side of the planet is anything but low-level. I would fully expect that the Japanese population would be extremely restive and not at all "compliant" which would necessitate an extremely long and costly occupation after an even more horrific Pacific Campaign. I just don't see the US population being willing to accept that.
2) You forget the massive amount of anti-Japanese sentiment in the US in the 40's. Some of it was generic anti-Asian racism but a lot of it was hatred from Pearl Harbor and the later atrocities. I don't see any likelihood of that shifting rapidly enough to permit Congress to approve statehood by 1959.
3) Statehood has some pretty strict unofficial standards that must be adhered to. One of which is having English as the official language (this has been one of the stumbling blocks for Puerto Rico historically). I don't see the Japanese people being willing to adopt the language of the "Gaijin" invaders. Even in OTL, they are still one of the more xenophobic cultures out there and that is despite having one of the most peaceful occupations in history.
 
So are we to assume that the Manhattan project is a failure in this timeline? Because regardless of who is occupying the white house come Summer 1945, if those bombs are available, they're getting dropped ASAP, or the current occupant is going to be removed for someone who will.
 
Well, the end all of this ATL is that Japan would be the first state to successfully and legally secede from the US.
Japan would also end up being unaligned and much closer to China as well.

I typed a whole extension to this ATL, but it is too long to post here.
So here's a link to a place where I published it:
 
my idea is that instead of dropping the A-bombs America Britain and Russia proceeded with operation downfall there were heavy casualties on both sides Russia decides to focus on Germany which leads America and Britain to occupy japan however Britain leaves only leaving America and in 1959 japan becomes a state along with Hawaii
Japan had 72,000,000 people in 1945 in OTL. Even after a succcesful invasion, the bulk of them will survive as the bulk of Germans did. (Please spare me "super/sub human Japanese fanatics will fight until the last Japanese is killed" nonsense.) Congress was willing to admit Hawaii, a state with 600,000 people (who were mostly English-speaking and Christian and who had moreover long been attached to the United States and had indeed had close relations with the US long before annexation). To say that it would be willing to totally revolutionize Americasn politics by admitting a state with many tens of millions of people (with a language and culture totally alien to the US, and recent enemies in war, and without the substantial white American minority Hawaii had) is ...I'll restrain myself and call it implausible.
 
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This is ASB.

1. USA wasn't anymore expansionist so it wouldn't want to conquer any nations.
2. USA don't want millins and millions of resistant Japanese. So it would require that Americans commit outright genocide and re-settle the islands with white Americans.
 
I feel like it's unlikely Japan becomes a state in the aftermath of an American Invasion of the Home Islands in World War II due to all the reasons already pointed out in this post. That being said if Japan is still hostile after the war or likely to fall under the influence of the Soviet Union there's a tiny chance you might be able to break off some outlying territory from Japan. Your best candidate is probably the Ryukyu Islands. Even in otl The United States Administered the Island Chain as an overseas territory from Okinawa Island until 1972. With the right approach you could create a timeline where this region is never returned to Japan and becomes more and more Americanized, eventually seeking Statehood. Americans could justify this by needing to maintain a military presence there and noting that the Ryukyu natives were mistreated by Japan in the past and their culture suffered, also if the USSR claims Sakhalin why shouldn't we get a little land for our trouble too. Alternately with a hostile Japan you could have the United States back a new Independent Ryukyu Nation State as well.
 
My Dad came to the US as an 18 year old a number of years after WW2 and he had it a bit rough as a result of the war. So mush so that he would not teach any of us kids German and we were born a long time after the war. I would hate to see the reaction of Citizens to the idea of turning the “Butchers of Baton”. And the architects of the “Day of Infamy “ into fellow citizens.
And that is ignoring how you balance the party politics.
 
I can see a scenario where the Home Islands except Hokkaido are occupied by the US, at a great cost; so are the Ryukyus and Taiwan.
This creates an opening for the Soviets in mainland Asia, including all of Korea.
China still has a civil war, but one were the Communist side is far better placed and a lot more closely Soviet aligned. Mao would hate it, but in this Communist China, he's not as absolute or independent as he would have liked.
Europe looks like very different.
The US decide that Japan (with Taiwan) must be kept. At some point, statehood looks like the sensible thing, but one is forced to ask, why not the Philippines then?
 
....

The Ryukus are a remote maybe, depending on how the occupation goes and if some smart soul cultivates memories of the kingdom quashed in the 1800s to swing popular support behind a 'Better DC than Tokyo' political movement.

Even after losing 1/3 of it's population? Japan is a non-starter.

For that matter, what do you mean a state?
 
This is ASB.

1. USA wasn't anymore expansionist so it wouldn't want to conquer any nations.
2. USA don't want millins and millions of resistant Japanese. So it would require that Americans commit outright genocide and re-settle the islands with white Americans.
Even if it is ASB, it's still interesting to try and answer.

In my view, if Japan became a state, the US would have its own Algerian war on its hands.

A territory gets annexed into another country directly much to thr annoyance of the locals.
However, there won't even be a tiny settler population in Japan to raise hell over the mainland not being supportive enough and prolong the war.

Likewise it would end it constitutional changes specifically done so that land would be able to leave.
 
Even if it is ASB, it's still interesting to try and answer.
'Kay.

In my view, if Japan became a state, the US would have its own Algerian war on its hands.

A territory gets annexed into another country directly much to thr annoyance of the locals.
However, there won't even be a tiny settler population in Japan to raise hell over the mainland not being supportive enough and prolong the war.
Recall that the Algerian War was greatly aggravated by the Algerian population being disenfranchised.

'State' means 'Full Representation in Federal Legislature and measurable say in Federal Elections (keep in mind that given the numbers this is going to be a Bloody Big State). Lack of a settler population means we do not have the Mississippi/South Carolina issue of mass disenfranchisement by entrenched local leadership.

An independence movement is certain. How dominant they would be once it becomes clear that they have become kingmakers in the Diet of their conquerors is in fact a fair question.
 
Even if it is ASB, it's still interesting to try and answer.

In my view, if Japan became a state, the US would have its own Algerian war on its hands.

A territory gets annexed into another country directly much to thr annoyance of the locals.
However, there won't even be a tiny settler population in Japan to raise hell over the mainland not being supportive enough and prolong the war.

Likewise it would end it constitutional changes specifically done so that land would be able to leave.

If USA begin to plan statehood of Japan, Japanese will rise up and there would be such revolt that if USA is smart it just gives independence and leave the islands. If it goes full war, Soviets are going to give supplies and when USA lost the war, Japan becomes communist.
 
'Recall that the Algerian War was greatly aggravated by the Algerian population being disenfranchised.
It was a factor, yes. But not the one that greatly aggravated it. The fundamental reason for the war is that the French and Algerians are two completely separate groups, and the latter was neither asked to be a part of France nor did they want to be. What kicked the war off was French imperial decline given what happened to them in WW2.
'State' means 'Full Representation in Federal Legislature and measurable say in Federal Elections (keep in mind that given the numbers this is going to be a Bloody Big State). Lack of a settler population means we do not have the Mississippi/South Carolina issue of mass disenfranchisement by entrenched local leadership.
In theory, this could happen. But given the opposition at home, the US government may decide to implement a version Ironclad oath but for the Japanese to disuade fears. I would think it would be something like pledging allegiance to the US constitution over the Emperor. Quite easily half the population are disenfranchised as a result
An independence movement is certain. How dominant they would be once it becomes clear that they have become kingmakers in the Diet of their conquerors is in fact a fair question.
Still pretty dominant. For such an extremely nationalistic nation that was Japan, independence is worth far more than whatever influence they have in Washington. Independence would largely be an uncompromising goal.
 
I wonder what the cultural ramifications of something like this would be like. Post War, Japan had a big flourish of art and entertainment a lot of it having to do with taking western themes, products, and trends then blending and bending them into a more Japanese aesthetic or creating something that felt new, showing a Japan that was seeing the world in a different way than it had previously. There were also cultural products that were reactions and rejections to Western and specifically American Culture, showing a hostility to the Nation that was occupying them. In a scenario like this does this get turned up to the max. Would there be American Style suburbs outside of major Japanese Cities, Haiku spouting Beatnik poets, Hokkaido Rockabilly? The Entertainment Industry might be wild, big American Studios trying to release localized versions of their films, while small Japanese Studios try for that niche audience, traditional Noh and Kabuki Theater Revivals going for the Traditionalists and eventually earning a spot on the Small Screen filmed in front of a live audience and most likely both sides of the cultural divide making lots of propaganda entertainment both blatant and subtle. The 1970's would probably feature a lot of entertainment telling the stories of young people of mixed Japanese and American heritage trying to navigate a country where they often don't fit in on either cultural side.
 
Not going to happen.

Even the Philippines wasn't considered for statehood because Filipino identity and culture is different from the American ones. I also read there was no momentum or movement in Congress to have the Philippines as a state.

Japan would not be admitted in the first place. Different culture, different race, anti-Japanese sentiment is still strong along with Yellow Peril, and the fact this will cost the U.S. a lot of money.
 
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