what if Apartheid ended in civil war?

[Sir Coloniser]

what if instead of ending peacefully, Apartheid results in civil war between the South African goverment and the ANC
other possible combatants include SWAPO, Zulu separatists and possibly foreign intervention
POD: Mandela dies in 1980

 

[Seandineen]

Could we see a larger role for the Homeland leaders, as anti communist bulwarks, who ittl are not as obviously puppets?

 

[Warthog]

OTL before talks started, you had the apartheid army in the townships, MK sabotage campaigns in main industrial areas, APLA bombings in major cities, fighting between govt backed Inkatha regiments and MK backed self defence groups. It was largely irregular warfare but it was civil war. It could escalate in the absence of talks between the ANC and the apartheid government, but that would likely be intensification.

To get to conventional warfare, MK would need to be holding liberated zones, and attempting to expand from them. This was never in the ANC's political strategy, nor in MK's military resourcing and training

 

[Craig]

Somewhere I had heard that the first target of a South African nuke was Luanda, Angola. The South Africans certainly spent a lot of effort fighting Cubans in Angola prior to 1992.

 

[ahmedali]

For South Africa to collapse into a Yugoslavia-like scenario

Nelson Mandela should be executed (he was sentenced to death at one point but has been commuted)

And add with it the successful assassination of Peter Willem Botha, President of South Africa

It is very easy to end in a very bad way

(It turns out that South Africa has nuclear weapons, and the whites, out of desperation, might dare to nuke black cities, and worse if these nuclear weapons fall into the hands of terrorists or rogue states.)

Worse, a cluster war is spreading to other parts of Africa

This will be a big siren in Dowing Street, the White House and the Kremlin

And we will end up with an American/British intervention in the country with the imposition of Balkanization

(The Republic of Cape and the revival of traditional kingdoms such as the kingdom of Zulu, Khosa and others)

These countries have relations similar to the successor states of Yugoslavia

 

[Whiteshore]

And add with it the successful assassination of Peter Willem Botha, President of South Africa

You could add the Conservative Party defeating the Nationalists somehow as well.

 

[ahmedali]

You could add the Conservative Party defeating the Nationalists somehow as well.

You mean white extremists?

 

[Whiteshore]

You mean white extremists?

Yup.

 

[ahmedali]

Yup.

Botha's assassination is enough to get them up

 

[Seandineen]

Bantu Holsomia The head of the Transkei Homeland, with ties to everyone., Is a very important figure. I wouldn't be surprised if he created the Xhosa empire, Kazier Mantanzima really wanted.

 

[walmart]

If the civil war is after South Africa denuclearized, Would the apartheid government have the capacity to rebuild it’s nuclear stockpile?

 

[Unkown00]

Which countries get involved in the war? I can see the countries that border South Africa like Botswana, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbwae getting involved. Not sure how the US, Europe and other countries would react.

 

[Gabingston]

Basically the premise of this Whatifalthist video:

 

[edgeworthy]

The closest I've seen to someone writing this would be Vortex by Larry Bond

 

[brunohusker]

It depends on who has the guns. If apartheid SA just has black rebels, sadly, the apartheid government will win. You might also see a refugee crisis and Zimbabwe probably goes to war against South Africa, and you might see a few communist countries give aid. Not sure about troops.

However, I think if say you had a nationalist coup against DeKlerk, then it’s more interesting as I’m sure you’d see the SA government do well, but Afrikaner nationalists will fight tough and might cause a lot of damage.

 

[Warthog]

turns out that South Africa has nuclear weapons, and the whites, out of desperation, might dare to nuke black cities,

Even at the height of apartheid there were no white cities, black cities, just cities divided by apartheid law

The Republic of Cape and the revival of traditional kingdoms such as the kingdom of Zulu, Khosa and others)

These countries have relations similar to the successor states of Yugoslavia

The Kings existed, still do. Republic of the Cape is mainly an internet fan thing.

Similar to Yugoslavia, how?

Bantu Holsomia The head of the Transkei Homeland, with ties to everyone., Is a very important figure. I wouldn't be surprised if he created the Xhosa empire, Kazier Mantanzima really wanted

Well back in the 90s he was largely pro ANC, trying to play his role in liberation of all of South Africa, not empire building

apartheid government have the capacity to rebuild it’s nuclear stockpile

Stockpile was there right until de Klerk started dismantling apartheid

 

[ahmedali]

Even at the height of apartheid there were no white cities, black cities, just cities divided by apartheid law



The Kings existed, still do. Republic of the Cape is mainly an internet fan thing.

Similar to Yugoslavia, how?



Well back in the 90s he was largely pro ANC, trying to play his role in liberation of all of South Africa, not empire building

Stockpile was there right until de Klerk started dismantling apartheid

The Cape Republic is essentially a relic of the South African government

True, but radical whites will not see it that way

Similar to Yugoslavia, any ethnic civil war between blacks and whites such as Croats and Serbs

 

[Warthog]

The Cape Republic is essentially a relic of the South African government

True, but radical whites will not see it that way

Similar to Yugoslavia, any ethnic civil war between blacks and whites such as Croats and Serbs

Um ok. I guess you're assigning extremists positions to a larger part of the population, and that isn't what happened OTL, even some more extreme leaders saw it wouldn't work, stood down... but ok

 

[ahmedali]

Um ok. I guess you're assigning extremists positions to a larger part of the population, and that isn't what happened OTL, even some more extreme leaders saw it wouldn't work, stood down... but ok

Ethnic civil war can easily radicalize a population

I also added that Mandela should be assassinated or executed in order to marginalize the moderates in the African National Congress

With the success of the assassination of President Botha, this means that the government will resort to more violence

 

[Warthog]

Ethnic civil war can easily radicalize a population

I also added that Mandela should be assassinated or executed in order to marginalize the moderates in the African National Congress

With the success of the assassination of President Botha, this means that the government will resort to more violence

Mandela was no moderate

There were disagreements about strategy, including moral disagreements in the ANC and anti apartheid movement more broadly about targets, what would be terrorism etc... but none of these were black vs white disagreements