I believe that reversed result in 1964 would have been followed by a Rhodesian settlement in 1965 and another reversed result in 1966. The reforms in question would I think have been.passed anyway.
If South Africa is not affected by any kind of arms embargo might they have been tempted to act as a middle man to allow Rhodesia to obtain desperately needed military equipment?
If the Rhodesians themselves were not restricted by any kind of embargos, then what hardware might they have procured and what if any effect would this have had on the outcome of the Bush War?
 
If South Africa is not affected by any kind of arms embargo might they have been tempted to act as a middle man to allow Rhodesia to obtain desperately needed military equipment?
If the Rhodesians themselves were not restricted by any kind of embargos, then what hardware might they have procured and what if any effect would this have had on the outcome of the Bush War?
The unfortunate truth about the various bush wars is that the hardware doesn't actually matter all that much. Yes, it helps, and there are some pieces of kit you really want to have access to. But once you have them - helicopters, some mortars, rough-field aircraft, some armoured vehicles, a few aircraft to do CAS, whatever riverine or green-water assets you need - the rest doesn't matter as much as you might think. Any state-level government can outgun any insurgent force if they want to (and if they can't, then think hard about who is really the government in this situation).

That phrase "if they want to" is the key. Bush wars are won or lost by virtue of the support either side has with the population it's being fought in. Without that support, hardware will let you draw out the process of losing, and make it painful for the opposition, but it won't let you win in any fashion that keeps your legitimacy.
 
If the SAAF does obtain AH-1 (or potentially AH-64) presumably this butterflies away the Rookivalk unless it still happens down the line in some other form.
If Pretoria are able to convince Washinton to sell to them what other US built aircraft might they have procured?

With no embargos restricting South Africa's ability to procure foreign hardware how would the South African arms industry have developed compared to OTL?
Isn't the AH-64 Apache too big and cumbersome for the SADF? The AH-1 Cobra is more versatile and nimble. The Cobra can do the same job as an Apache. I'm not sure if the SADF needed to engage tanks in the South African Border War.

Similar thread:
 
If the South African's were able to purchase AH-1 Cobra's from the US might they perhaps have been interested in other aircraft such as CH-47 Chinook's or P3 Orion (Assuming they hadn't already purchased Nimrod's from Britain as they attempted to do OTL)?

On the subject of Nimrod if the South African's weren't prevented from obtaining the aircraft by the Wilson Government and were still able to maintain relatively good relations with Britain might possible South African cooperation or financing have been enough to get the Nimrod AEW out of development hell and into service?

A common feature of SAAF air combat engagements over Angola/Namibia was the limitation of radar coverage provided by ground based radar stations. As a result Cuban/Angolan pilots were frequently able to surprise SAAF pilots who were operating beyond South African radar coverage. In this situation an AWACS aircraft would have been an ideal solution and if the SAAF already operated the Nimrod they may well have viewed the Nimrod AEW as an ideal solution if it could have been made to work.
Failing that what other options might have been available for an AWACS aircraft?
 
If the South African's were able to purchase AH-1 Cobra's from the US might they perhaps have been interested in other aircraft such as CH-47 Chinook's or P3 Orion (Assuming they hadn't already purchased Nimrod's from Britain as they attempted to do OTL)?

On the subject of Nimrod if the South African's weren't prevented from obtaining the aircraft by the Wilson Government and were still able to maintain relatively good relations with Britain might possible South African cooperation or financing have been enough to get the Nimrod AEW out of development hell and into service?

A common feature of SAAF air combat engagements over Angola/Namibia was the limitation of radar coverage provided by ground based radar stations. As a result Cuban/Angolan pilots were frequently able to surprise SAAF pilots who were operating beyond South African radar coverage. In this situation an AWACS aircraft would have been an ideal solution and if the SAAF already operated the Nimrod they may well have viewed the Nimrod AEW as an ideal solution if it could have been made to work.
Failing that what other options might have been available for an AWACS aircraft?
The problem with AEW and AWACS platforms is that these aircraft are also expensive to maintain.

Apart from the Cuban and Angolan incursions and occasional air-to-air combat, is there a long term need for the SADF to get Nimrods and P-3s? Considering the P-3 is a maritime patrol aircraft meant to hunt for submarines.
 
Apart from the Cuban and Angolan incursions and occasional air-to-air combat, is there a long term need for the SADF to get Nimrods and P-3s? Considering the P-3 is a maritime patrol aircraft meant to hunt for submarines.
Given South Africa's geographic location and economic dependence on shipping lanes and access to the sea they would have likely placed a high priority on maritime patrol aircraft. If nothing else they would have wanted the ability to maintain surveillance of the waters around them and perhaps become involved in anti piracy operations.

It's worth noting that the OTL SANDF's current lack of MPA capability due to aircraft expiring and not having been replaced is considered something of a national scandal/embarrassment.

During Apartheid and its subsequent embargo's SADF was unable to obtain new aircraft to replace its elderly fleet of Avro Shackleton MPA's and went to great lengths to keep the aircraft flying with the last not leaving service until 1984. If the option was available to them I reckon that the SAAF (ad SAN) would have placed a high priority on the procurement of new MPA's.

Speaking of the Shackelton and AWACS at one point the RAF looked at fitting some of its surplus Shackelton's with radars to create a cheap interim AEW aircraft before the Nimrod AEW was planned to enter service. Might the South Africans have looked to do the same as a way of acquiring a rudimentary AWACS capability relatively cheaply?
 
Quote from the Opening Post.
What if for reasons best known to themselves while still condemning Apartheid and applying economic sanctions the international community never apply UNSC Resolution 418 or any other form of arms embargo?
I think it would have been all-or-nothing. That is no arms embargo, no economic sanctions, no sporting boycott and no cultural boycott. I think an earlier end to Apartheid or a less extreme form of Apartheid or it didn't happen in the first place would be required to avoid the boycotts, embargoes and sanctions.
 
Part of Post 31.
Dassault would no doubt love this klind of sales. envision 40 to 60 total aircraft at any time. Maybe up to 80 if no Buccaneer. So for example.
48 Mirage 111 and 20 Buccaneer 1960's​
36 Mirage 5 (converted III) and 36 Mirage F.1 1970's​
30 F.1 and 40 2000 1980's/90's​
36 2000 and 36 Rafale 1990/2000's​
With avionics upgrades etc. Some attrition loses included.
Are the Mirage IIIs, 5s and F.1s delivered in the 1960s and 1970s in addition to the aircraft delivered IOTL?
  • 58 Mirage IIIs delivered 1962-75. That included 15 with Atar 9K-50 engines which were equivalent to the Mirage 50 that were delivered from October 1974.
  • 48 Mirage F.1s delivered from 1975. The Ian Allan Modern Combat Aircraft book that this came from also says that South Africa acquired a manufacturing licence for the aircraft and the engines.
Is it true that the SAAF wanted 100 Mirage F.1s? I think that I remember reading in the middle of the 1980s in an Ian Allan air forces of the world book that was published in the late 1970s.
 
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Without the complications caused by sanctions does the Olifant Main Battle Tank (essentially a remanufacture Centurion) still happen or does the South African Army decide to go in a different direction regarding MBT's?
I've no idea. However, the Australians and Canadians replaced their Centurions with Leopard 1s which makes me think that the South Africans would do so too if they decided to buy a new tank instead of upgrading their Centurions. My second choice is the Vickers MBT Mk 3 because the Kenyans and Nigerians bought it. My third choice is the Vickers MBT Mk 4.
 
Part of Post 31.

Are the Mirage IIIs, 5s and F.1s delivered in the 1960s and 1970s in addition to the aircraft delivered IOTL?
  • 58 Mirage IIIs delivered 1962-75. That included 15 with Atar 9K-50 engines which were equivalent to the Mirage 50 that were delivered from October 1974.
  • 48 Mirage F.1s delivered from 1975. The Ian Allan Modern Combat Aircraft book that this came from also says that South Africa acquired a manufacturing licence for the aircraft and the engines.
Is it true that the SAAF wanted 100 Mirage F.1s? I think that I remember reading in the middle of the 1980s in an Ian Allan air forces of the world book that was published in the late 1970s.
I couls see the F.1 being used as the entire SADF. The basic airframe is excellent as is the upgrades. The Laser guidance pods and LGB/LGM possibilities are good. The Aircraft is fully nuclear capable in that you can wire it for the role. F1E as given to Iraq adds in Anti-shipping capabilities.
 
On the subject of Nimrod if the South African's weren't prevented from obtaining the aircraft by the Wilson Government and were still able to maintain relatively good relations with Britain might possible South African cooperation or financing have been enough to get the Nimrod AEW out of development hell and into service?
There might be no Nimrod AEW ITTL because I suspect that HMG would sell the 11 Nimrods that became surplus to requirements in the Mason defence review of 1974-75 so E-3s would have to be bought in the first place or a different airframe would have to be found.
 
I've no idea. However, the Australians and Canadians replaced their Centurions with Leopard 1s which makes me think that the South Africans would do so too if they decided to buy a new tank instead of upgrading their Centurions. My second choice is the Vickers MBT Mk 3 because the Kenyans and Nigerians bought it. My third choice is the Vickers MBT Mk 4.
If I recall there was some interest in Leopard 1 indeed.
 
Given South Africa's geographic location and economic dependence on shipping lanes and access to the sea they would have likely placed a high priority on maritime patrol aircraft. If nothing else they would have wanted the ability to maintain surveillance of the waters around them and perhaps become involved in anti piracy operations.

It's worth noting that the OTL SANDF's current lack of MPA capability due to aircraft expiring and not having been replaced is considered something of a national scandal/embarrassment.

During Apartheid and its subsequent embargo's SADF was unable to obtain new aircraft to replace its elderly fleet of Avro Shackleton MPA's and went to great lengths to keep the aircraft flying with the last not leaving service until 1984. If the option was available to them I reckon that the SAAF (ad SAN) would have placed a high priority on the procurement of new MPA's.

Speaking of the Shackelton and AWACS at one point the RAF looked at fitting some of its surplus Shackelton's with radars to create a cheap interim AEW aircraft before the Nimrod AEW was planned to enter service. Might the South Africans have looked to do the same as a way of acquiring a rudimentary AWACS capability relatively cheaply?
Were the Soviets operating subs in the Indian Ocean-Atlantic-Cape of Good Hope Area? If that's the case, the SADF could op for the P-2 Neptune or the P-3 Orion.

The Nimrod would improve their radar coverage by a lot.
 
Is it true that the SAAF wanted 100 Mirage F.1s? I think that I remember reading in the middle of the 1980s in an Ian Allan air forces of the world book that was published in the late 1970s.
IIRC the South Africans did indeed want 100 Mirage F1's and also wanted to start domestic production themselves under license but were prevented from doing this and were limited in the number of aircraft they could obtain from France by the imposition of the arms embargo.

If they had been successfully able to set up domestic production of an advanced aircraft like the Mirage F1 this would have probably been a major boost to their aerospace industry.
Might this have meant that the Atlas Cheetah still happens in one form or another or maybe the Atlas Carver becomes a reality?
 
Were the Soviets operating subs in the Indian Ocean-Atlantic-Cape of Good Hope Area? If that's the case, the SADF could op for the P-2 Neptune or the P-3 Orion.

The Nimrod would improve their radar coverage by a lot.
The Soviets occasionally sent submarines and the odd surface ship around the Cape of Good Hope as a flying the flag/show of force exercise.
Plus the Soviets were backing most of South Africa's enemies and the Cubans were moving most of their force's to Angola by ship which would probably be enough to justify the procurement of a credible MPA capability
 
The Soviets occasionally sent submarines and the odd surface ship around the Cape of Good Hope as a flying the flag/show of force exercise.
Plus the Soviets were backing most of South Africa's enemies and the Cubans were moving most of their force's to Angola by ship which would probably be enough to justify the procurement of a credible MPA capability
Fair enough.

It would have been interesting to see how SADF MPAs and sub chasers do some action.

Here in the Philippines, our armed forces used to have PCEs to patrol areas that were frequented by either Soviet or Chinese subs that were supplying arms to the Huks and then later the NPA. One PCE was alleged to have sunk a Chinese sub in 1956 but the wreck has never been found. Another account claimed a PCE damaging an unknown sub.
 
The problem with AEW and AWACS platforms is that these aircraft are also expensive to maintain.

Apart from the Cuban and Angolan incursions and occasional air-to-air combat, is there a long term need for the SADF to get Nimrods and P-3s? Considering the P-3 is a maritime patrol aircraft meant to hunt for submarines.
Maritime patrol are often designed around hunting subs, yes. But a maritime patrol aircraft that can hunt subs can also do an excellent job keeping track of surface ships too, and even a maritime patrol aircraft that CAN'T hunt subs is still useful for monitoring what's travelling above the waves rather than below them. Case in point: the RNZAF operated 6 P-3s for way longer than they should have, even though the threat of unfriendly subs in NZ waters was never very high and reduced substantially at the end of the Cold War. But that didn't matter, because what the NZ Govt really wanted was a way of keeping track of whose ships were going where, and the Orions were excellent for that. Once the Skyhawks were taken out of service they even wired up their P-3s to carry Mavericks, just so they could do something nasty to surface ships if the need arose.

Going back to the South Africans, they have an awful lot of ocean to take care of, and a strong interest in monitoring what happens in those waters. In a way, their situation is a bit like Singapore: busy waterways, neighbours whose interests don't always align, and a burning need to not be taken by surprise. I'm not sure they need Nimrods or P-3s, although they probably could use the sub-hunting capabilities more than the Singaporeans could. But they definitely need maritime patrol aircraft to keep track of what's happening around the Cape of Good Hope, and whether that's converted airliners with surface-search radars (as I mentioned up-thread) or dedicated sub-hunters matter less than having the platforms in the first place.
 
South Africa ordered 3 Daphne class submarines from France in April 1967 and in the 1970s 2 Agosta class submarines from France, but the latter weren't delivered because of the UN's arms embargo. Would South Africa have bought 5 Oberon class submarines from the UK if HMG had been less scrupulous?
If the SAN did acquire Oberon class boats in the late 60s/early 70s its likely that by the late 80's or early 90's these boats would have been reaching the end of their lives as per OTL and Pretoria would be looking a replacement.
If they already operated Oberon's might they have decided to procure the Upholder class that Britain was building to replace their own Oberon class boats?
Either buying the 4 surplus British boats that were sold to Canada OTL or perhaps having joined the program earlier and ordering a batch of boat built specifically for them?
 
How about the Jaguar, to supplment the Buccaneers? It's a pretty good aircraft and cheap to operate; France and the UK used it happily for decades. Buccaneers for long range strike, Jaguars for air support, Mirage 2000 or F-16A for air defence.
 
If the SAN did acquire Oberon class boats in the late 60s/early 70s its likely that by the late 80's or early 90's these boats would have been reaching the end of their lives as per OTL and Pretoria would be looking a replacement.
If they already operated Oberon's might they have decided to procure the Upholder class that Britain was building to replace their own Oberon class boats?
Either buying the 4 surplus British boats that were sold to Canada OTL or perhaps having joined the program earlier and ordering a batch of boat built specifically for them?
I think not because (with the exception of Canada) nobody was buying British submarines at the time. E.g. the Australians replaced their Oberons with a Swedish design and the South Africans eventually replaced their Daphnes with German Type 209s. I suspect that the only reason why Canada bought the Upholder class was that they were "going cheap" due to becoming surplus to British requirements.
 
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