No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Honestly seeing the society of a Russia where "things went right" is the main reason I started following this
Dont get me wrong, I think the TL is fine as it is and I dont wanna in any way push you into going further into it
Just saying chapters like the one on russian pottery and the bonaparte shenanigans were some of the highlights for me
Overall I think this is a solid hard AH if I've ever seen one, but if you were to add more stuff on the internal affairs I'd enjoy it very much
Thanks. I’ll try. Probably will have to start with the boring part like the court balls and other “paraphernalia”. Which poses another challenge: it was all too closely tied to St. Peteburg so I’ll have to leave Moscow as an official capital but do a lot of things to make St.Petersburg a de facto one: it is simply impossible to build all the needed places in Moscow because it was already developed and, anyway, it was not a city NI could really like (not enough strait lines).
 
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NL has a similar system, the Hague is were the Government is, but Amsterdam is the capital and the official work palace.

I look forward how you can transition so by the time OTL the Russo Japanese war would happen, the butterflies have created some more democratic institutions. Cause to me that is the great fight still coming to Russia: the need to modernise to suit the increasingly political minded people it's producing.

And I don't see how Japan won't feel the need to go OTL, nor do I feel the German issue is stable, the French situation isn't either. You could easily have a big mess when France experiences another revolution and Prussia & Austria duke it out. A unified Germany is a thread to Sweden. And what happens to that isn't that certain either. But, my pessimistic views aren't more probably either, it's a path of infinite options still.
 
In regards to whether this TL is at an end or not. You seem to have made a decision, but I'll still pitch in.

I would just hope that if you end it, you give something of an international epilogue type thing. I totally understand if you reach the limit of what you are motivated to go into detail on, but its always nice to have a sort of summary at the end. I also tended to really like the different international developments. There has to be a limit, but there are still some general events that would be great to hear on without needing to do detailed wars or anything since you've said you struggle a bit on that.

Does Germany go through a unification movement? Do Austria or Prussia lead it, or is it a movement by the smaller German states since neither of the two bigger powers are as successful here. Does this affect the foreign held German lands held by Sweden, Denmark-Norway, or France.

Same with Italy?

What has happened with Sweden in the last several decades, and will happen in the 18th century? Any information has sort of died out a while ago. Did it just slide into accepting obscurity? Does it ever have to defend its German lands? Did Scandinavianism ever take off? With OTL Danish royal developments, a few different marriage developments could open up possibilities. Sweden and D-N have been part of the Baltic Mafia and thus allies for basically a century by this point.

As you mentioned, does the Consulate survive in France? Does revolution happen? Does France manage to hold onto its greater territory if things break down, and Germany and Italy might have revanchist tendencies?

Don't expect you go too far, but even hinting at whether there is a eventually a World War-esque conflict or whether a greater history of negotiations actually bear fruit.

Just my two cents on what I'd like to see if you feel the TL is reaching its limits.
 
Thanks. I’ll try. Probably will have to start with the boring part like the court balls and other “paraphernalia”. Which poses another challenge: it was all too closely tied to St. Peteburg so I’ll have to live Moscow as an official capital but do a lot of things to make St.Petersburg a de facto one: it is simply impossible to build all the needed places in Moscow because it was already developed and, anyway, it was not a city NI could really like (not enough strait lines).
Probably Nicholas is going to pull a what Nap III did to Paris IOTL?
 
Well, to start with, nobody prevents them from going around cape of the Good Hope (as everybody else did in OTL) or using the canal - the whole reason for digging it is international usage (and related revenues) and Britain is obviously going to be one of the major if not the major user. Otherwise, the rules are the same as in OTL with a right to close it in the case of war. Judging by the RJW, any war.

As for the rest, ITTL Britain is not omnipotent and the world is not turning around its wishes. What are they going to do? Start a war in which they’ll have no allies and probably “everybody” turning against them because they are disturbing a shipping? If, as seemingly is consensus, Spain is better off than in OTL, even British access to the Med may become problematic: Gibraltar was OK in the 18th century but could its land defenses stand against artillery of the second part of the 19th?

And what pretext? “Yes, we can use it as everybody else but we want to own it even if it was built on a foreign soil by the foreigners on foreign money”? In OTL it was nice and legal: Khediv was deeply in debt to Britain and had to sell his shares. ITTL, if he is in debt, he is in debt to France. Britain, if involved, is a by far junior financial partner.

Technically if Germany does unify you could potentially play of WW1 between Germany and Austria against Italy, France, Batavia and Spain (maybe Poland) with British and Russians sitting in the back.

Otherwise potentially united Germany would ultimately put Sweden in the tight spot together with Russia as some sort of deal regarding Swedish enclave's would need to be reached as I don't imagine Russia wanting to go to war against Germany for it .

Generally you still didn't finalize German question and Russia opposing unified German state isn't guaranteed (especially if some unwanted changes happen within French government), but otherwise even in otl this period of time was mostly peaceful.

My advice would be to focus on internal development and decide fate of Germany and Italy later , otherwise until then, well there are still crisis's in international situation that would be fun, for Example you could write about American/Spanish wars as declining Spanish empire would probably need to deal with it's up and coming neighbor (and Russian position on it) .

Then you could still do Ottoman/Egyptian side show and how would situation in the Ottoman empire affect Russia and pan-slavism . Russia is autocracy but even Tsar would be pressed to do something if popular demand is big enough.

Generally things don't always need to go right for Russia, they just don't need to be to bad but a little international and internal spice isn't bad.
 
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Probably Nicholas is going to pull a what Nap III did to Paris IOTL?

That would be good idea, especially given that Moscow was the Capital for quite some time and Saint Petersburg doesn't have same strategic depth as in otl, nor the same importance to be the capital in this TL. I'm for Moscow staying the capital of the empire.
 
I mean Spain may be in decline, but I doubt it is worse than otl, especially considering that they actually reformed.
I mean the Spain trope is doomed no matter what I do it sucks if it's done at this point.
What actually condemned Spain to any positive reform was the Napoleonic invasion, without invasion it is very likely that they will be reformed. In fact there is one that will probably happen and it is this:

Charles IV: Autonomist Project

In 1806, the same idea was raised again, this time by Charles IV himself, sending a letter to the members of the government and eight prelates proposing the following:

My two youngest sons (Infante Francisco de Paula and Infante Carlos María), my brother (probably Infante Antonio Pascual, or even Ferdinand I of the Two Sicilies), my nephew Infante Pedro, and the Prince of the Peace (Godoy), must be established in different parts of the Americas in a feudal sovereignty of Spain.
They would be granted the titles of perpetual viceroys, a title with hereditary character in their line of direct descent.
Certain obligations would be assigned to them, such as paying taxes levied on them, and the obligation to go with troops and ships when requested.
All those consulted, bishops and ministers, except one, gave a favorable opinion to the plan that included the adjudication of an Americas-based kingdom to Godoy, which could deserve it given his status as Prince of the Peace.

Something very interesting is that the territory that was planned to be given to Godoy was the one that possessed Texas, that is the northeast of New Spain (and later Mexico), and there was even the possibility of give him the entire great north of New Spain (the Old Mexican North), which he would have to defend from American expansion. But, of course, the plan was not carried out due to persistent adverse circumstances.

The worst thing is that there are many more of these reform plans, you can choose any.
 
That would be good idea, especially given that Moscow was the Capital for quite some time and Saint Petersburg doesn't have same strategic depth as in otl, nor the same importance to be the capital in this TL. I'm for Moscow staying the capital of the empire.
It would be especially funny if Paris is not getting a renovation and staying a badly planned mess, but Moscow gets one because of Nick I order love.
 
It would be especially funny if Paris is not getting a renovation and staying a badly planned mess, but Moscow gets one because of Nick I order love.
It would be but where in the Moscow are you going to place the monstrosities like Winter Palace or General Staff with the huge squares around them? And, for the visuals to make sense, they have to be along the Moscow River.

BTW, I was not talking about changing the official capital, just of making St.P and its environs something like Versailles on the steroids. The imperial summer residencies are already there (much better near the sea than near Moscow), Admiralty is obviously have to be near the sea, etc. With the railroad available the travel time is less than 30 hours and electric telegraph kicks in by the 1830s with the optical telegraph being available since the 1790s. So communications are not a problem and Moscow remains an official capital with most of the governmental institutions.

The “fundamental” difference between Moscow of NI and Paris of NIII is that the inhabitants of the central part of Moscow are much deeper entrenched into the “system” than those of Paris of NIII where most of the important people tended (judging by the French classics 😉) to live on the outskirts of the city. In OTL NI was very sensitive to the sentiments of the Moscow’s nobility.

Destroying the whole Zamoskvorechie would cause a deep unhappiness in the merchant class extremely loyal to the regime and a massive buildup outside Moscow will create obvious transportation problems.
 
It would be but where in the Moscow are you going to place the monstrosities like Winter Palace or General Staff with the huge squares around them? And, for the visuals to make sense, they have to be along the Moscow River.
There were some grandiose plans for Kolomenskoye renovation, but these would likely go for Peterhof references.
 
Peaceful Times cont. 1
220. Peaceful Times cont. 1
How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?
Charles de Gaulle
The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.”
Frederic Bastiat
“Who ought to be the king of france-the person who has the title, or the man who has the power?
Pepin the Short
Spain- a great whale stranded on the shores of Europe.
Elizabeth Oakes Smith
In Sweden, self-sufficiency and autonomy is all”
Michael Booth
[Briefly wrapping up the relevant things in and around Europe based upon the issues raised ]

1840s

France.

In March of 1843 Consul Jean Victor Marie Moreau died at the age of 80. Not that this was fully unexpected or that he was actively involved in the governing for the last few years but he was a glorious “institutional” figure with nobody of an equal status available as a replacement. Also, his death reminded to everybody that the surviving “initial” consul, Bernadotte, is also 80 years old and hardly is going to last forever.

On a positive side, so far at least the system itself had been working. Two consuls agreed upon the candidacy of Horace François Bastien Sébastiani de La Porta, presently a Foreign Minister. Not that he was an excessively exciting figure but he was “our SOB” who so far worked well with the Consulate’s members and high ranking enough not to cause any questions.
1664142281742.png

Lucien Bonaparte had been recalled from his assignment in Russia to replace Sebastiani as a Foreign Minister, one more appointment that did not raise any objections [1].

The future of the system, however, remained uncertain: France run out of the old revolutionary generals so the new candidates would have to come either from the “heroes of Algeria” or from the civilian figures. In both cases there will be a question of their political affiliation and sound judgement. The “mainstream” republicanism was, so far, a prevailing trend but not the only one. Basically, the regime was supportive of the financial and industrial bourgeoisie with certain concessions to the the middle and working classes in the areas of voting rights and other aspects of a social life. The main and pretty much only labor law was passed in 1841. This law prohibited the use of labor of those children under eight years of age, and the employment of children less than 13 years old for night-time work.

On the extreme right there were supporters of the exiled Bourbons (Louis Antoine of France, Duke of Angoulême, was still alive and lived in Austria and there was at least one more male member of the family), then, somewhat to the left there were Orleanists (Louis Philippe, Duke of Orleans, was still in exile but many of his supporters were allowed to return and he had 4 surviving sons; also there was certain support among the wealthy bourgeoisie) who advocated a constitutional monarchy. On the left there were various types of the radical democrats demanding more privileges for the middle and laboring classes.

Paris had its own problem: a disproportionally high number of the aspiring writers, painters, actors, musicians and all other types of the bohemians with or mostly without a talent, with very questionable chances of gaining a comfortable living and with an extremely negative attitude toward the low level physical work. Obviously, most of them had been in a state of a permanent unhappiness and could be used as the useful tools by the radicals.

So far France was reasonably prosperous but there already had been certain problems caused by a well-intended but excessive protectionism that was causing shortage and unnaturally high prices of different products which could have easily been imported from other countries, such as textiles, machines, tools, and ores. But as of right now, these problems had been relatively minor and the state had enough resources to maintain a reasonably efficient social welfare programs. Under pressure from the Left and to deal with the unemployment (among those willing to work), a program of Ateliers Nationaux had been introduced guaranteeing government-funded jobs. It worked for a while but a number of the available vacations was limited until the Prefect of Paris came with a brilliant idea of a major redesign of the city. This project was huge and was expected to last if not forever then for a very, very long time. Picking up on it the government opened two open-ended national projects: a complete renovation of the French roads and a massive construction of the railroads. Combination of these three grandiose plans had to deal with most of the unemployment issues for a foreseen future. The ongoing industrialization and massive railroads construction was providing the employment but (there is always some “but”) many skilled workers of the dying or industrialized professions as a result were “downgraded” into proletariat and not too happy with a lowered status.

On a cheerful side, the Paris became the entertainment capital of Europe: legalization and proliferation of can-can in the Parisian places of entertainment killed any potential competition because where else acrobatics inn the pantalettes would be permitted? 😂

Spain [2]
For quite a while, the progress was impeded first by the reign of the King Ferdinand VII, who tended to see a dangerous liberalism in any form of a progress.

1664148603073.png

After his death the reforms had been delayed by the Carlist War which lasted from 1833 till 1840 causing serious damage.
1664148874052.png

In the colonies things were noticeably better. Thanks to the reforms of Infante Gabrielle conducted in the late XVIII - early XIX Spain retained its colonial empire that was reformed based upon the principle Viribus Unitis: the commonality of the Spanish Empire was recognized as a community of differences, which actually meant recognition of the right of self-determination for the colonies, albeit limited. The colonies got a right to conduct their trade with whoever they wanted and to handle their own domestic affairs.


In Spain itself by the early 1840s industrialization was on its early stages and the country remained mostly agrarian but there were visible developments in its textile and mining industries.
The import of goods constantly exceeded exports, the government covered the deficit by introducing new taxes, foreign and domestic loans. Despite the obvious progress, Spain remained one of the most backward countries in Europe, which was too noticeable in agriculture, where feudal relations still prevailed: about 70% of arable land remained uncultivated, yields were very low. The main cultivated crops in Spain remained wheat and barley. Nevertheless, new, more profitable crops began to be cultivated, ensuring higher profitability of production, such as vineyards, citrus and olive plantations. In the middle of the XIX century, Spain became a leader in wine production. The main problem in increasing yields in Spanish agriculture was the need for peasants to ensure forced irrigation of their land. As in the northern and eastern regions of Spain, these actions bore fruit, then in the southern regions everything was worse. Only the Guadalquivir River valley remained convenient.

The first railway line was built in 1848 and connected cities Mataro and Barcelona.
1664147896905.jpeg

There have also been noticeable changes in the financial and credit sector of Spain in the mid-19th century. Financial activities were focused closer to the restructuring of public finances. The first bank, Banco de Isabel II, was founded in 1844.

Sweden.
Sweden was enjoying a prolonged period of peace.
1664157510604.jpeg

At the start of the XIX century Sweden was a predominantly agricultural country. Agriculture employed more than 80 per cent of her population, whose growth was relatively slow; the agricultural production was scarcely sufficient to support them. Sweden depended on imported grain, although to a dwindling extent, up to about 1830. At this time, a change occurred. Agriculture developed so greatly that it was able to support an increasing population as well as to produce a surplus for export. The Swedish agricultural exports during a short period after the middle of the 19th century began to compete with the iron exports for its position as the second largest export branch.

Coincident with the expanding agricultural yields, signs can be detected of an industrial growth after 1830. Iron mining, the production of pig iron and of bar iron expanded at about 3 per cent per annum after 1830 and the textile industry experienced a very rapid upward trend. The value of cotton fabric and linen fabric rose by about 20 per cent per annum. The number of workers employed in the factories increased by about 3.5 per cent per annum, while the production value rose by about 10 per cent per annum, which means that the productivity improved substantially. Further development of the iron industry was stimulated by the foreign competition .
Swedish timber industry also began to develop. Exports kept growing from 1830 when the old water-driven sawmills began to be replaced by stearn sawmills whose capacity was larger. This allowed them to change their location from the inland waterfalls to the coast.

This period witnessed increasing regional specialization with mining in Bergslagen, textile mills in Sjuhäradsbygden and forestry in Norrland. Several important institutional changes took place in this period, such as free and mandatory public schooling introduced 1842 (as the first country in the world), the abolishment of a previous national monopoly on trade in handicrafts - the skråväsendet - in 1846, and a stock company law in 1848.

The only big potential problem was the fate of the Swedish possession Bremen-Verden. With the steadily if slowly expanding Prussia this territory became increasingly vulnerable bringing up the obvious question if retaining it worth the trouble. The possessions on the Baltic were secured by the Baltic Alliance with its naval domination and ability (and willingness) to deploy the overwhelming force, which was already demonstrated more than once. However, Bremen-Verden was simply too far to be securely protected from a potential invasion and its return would require a major war. OTOH, so far Prussia was a friendly state and a diplomatic solution was not out of question.
1664152225193.png

King Gustav V was in a prolonged discussion with his Prussian counterpart, Frederick William IV, regarding the possible solutions.
1664152804788.jpeg

So far, two options were on the table:
  • Prussian purchase of the territory.
  • Swap of Bremen-Verden for the piece of a territory adjacent to the Swedish-held Danzig area.
1664153157628.png

Neither side was in a hurry but it looked like some consensus could be eventually reached.

Poland.
After the death of Frederick Augustus I in 1827, the kingdom, as per Constitution of 1791, was ruled by his son-in-law King Jozef I.
1664153893359.jpeg


The reign was relatively uneventful, mostly because the country was surrounded by the stronger neighbors and the ideas regarding getting back some of the lost territories had been expressed only by few lunatics and mostly after the serious drinking. OTOH, after the great war of 1805-06 the borders were seemingly secure and a prolonged peace allowed further development of the textile manufacturing. The exports of grain had been going on through the Swedish Danzig and some of the high quality textiles were exported to Russia. So nothing of a serious interest there.

Britain
Was going full speed ahead with the industrialization while spending huge amounts of money on updating its navy: the lessons of the last war had been learned.

1664154747602.jpeg

To secure the route to India, a colonial settlement to the East of the Cape Colony was founded and the active expansion in India continued. Trade with China finally became profitable but not exactly in the way initially anticipated. Unofficial smuggling of opium was officially overlooked but most of the official imports were machinery and know how. The textiles did not pick up and the merchants could not freely travel inside China. The “useful” goods had been purchased by the Chinese merchants in the open ports and resold inland.


_______
[1] In OTL he died in 1840.
[2] This is a synopsis of the alt. history of Spain caused by Infante Gabrielle (who in OTL died much earlier not making too much of a splash) https://alternathistory.com/glava-ii-reformy-gabrielinosov-gran-espana-v/#reformy-kolonij and https://m.vk.com/@genialnoandprosto-ekonomika-ispanii-19-veka
 
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220. Peaceful Times cont. 1
How can you govern a country which has 246 varieties of cheese?
Charles de Gaulle
The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else.”
Frederic Bastiat
“Who ought to be the king of france-the person who has the title, or the man who has the power?
Pepin the Short
Spain- a great whale stranded on the shores of Europe.
Elizabeth Oakes Smith
In Sweden, self-sufficiency and autonomy is all”
Michael Booth
[Briefly wrapping up the relevant things in and around Europe based upon the issues raised ]

1840s

France.

In March of 1843 Consul Jean Victor Marie Moreau died at the age of 80. Not that this was fully unexpected or that he was actively involved in the governing for the last few years but he was a glorious “institutional” figure with nobody of an equal status available as a replacement. Also, his death reminded to everybody that the surviving “initial” consul, Bernadotte, is also 80 years old and hardly is going to last forever.

On a positive side, so far at least the system itself had been working. Two consuls agreed upon the candidacy of Horace François Bastien Sébastiani de La Porta, presently a Foreign Minister. Not that he was an excessively exciting figure but he was “our SOB” who so far worked well with the Consulate’s members and high ranking enough not to cause any questions.
View attachment 777066
Lucien Bonaparte had been recalled from his assignment in Russia to replace Sebastiani as a Foreign Minister, one more appointment that did not raise any objections [1].

The future of the system, however, remained uncertain: France run out of the old revolutionary generals so the new candidates would have to come either from the “heroes of Algeria” or from the civilian figures. In both cases there will be a question of their political affiliation and sound judgement. The “mainstream” republicanism was, so far, a prevailing trend but not the only one. Basically, the regime was supportive of the financial and industrial bourgeoisie with certain concessions to the the middle and working classes in the areas of voting rights and other aspects of a social life. The main and pretty much only labor law was passed in 1841. This law prohibited the use of labor of those children under eight years of age, and the employment of children less than 13 years old for night-time work.

On the extreme right there were supporters of the exiled Bourbons (Louis Antoine of France, Duke of Angoulême, was still alive and lived in Austria and there was at least one more male member of the family), then, somewhat to the left there were Orleanists (Louis Philippe, Duke of Orleans, was still in exile but many of his supporters were allowed to return and he had 4 surviving sons; also there was certain support among the wealthy bourgeoisie) who advocated a constitutional monarchy. On the left there were various types of the radical democrats demanding more privileges for the middle and laboring classes.

Paris had its own problem: a disproportionally high number of the aspiring writers, painters, actors, musicians and all other types of the bohemians with or mostly without a talent, with very questionable chances of gaining a comfortable living and with an extremely negative attitude toward the low level physical work. Obviously, most of them had been in a state of a permanent unhappiness and could be used as the useful tools by the radicals.

So far France was reasonably prosperous but there already had been certain problems caused by a well-intended but excessive protectionism that was causing shortage and unnaturally high prices of different products which could have easily been imported from other countries, such as textiles, machines, tools, and ores. But as of right now, these problems had been relatively minor and the state had enough resources to maintain a reasonably efficient social welfare programs. Under pressure from the Left and to deal with the unemployment (among those willing to work), a program of Ateliers Nationaux had been introduced guaranteeing government-funded jobs. It worked for a while but a number of the available vacations was limited until the Prefect of Paris came with a brilliant idea of a major redesign of the city. This project was huge and was expected to last if not forever then for a very, very long time. Picking up on it the government opened two open-ended national projects: a complete renovation of the French roads and a massive construction of the railroads. Combination of these three grandiose plans had to deal with most of the unemployment issues for a foreseen future. The ongoing industrialization and massive railroads construction was providing the employment but (there is always some “but”) many skilled workers of the dying or industrialized professions as a result were “downgraded” into proletariat and not too happy with a lowered status.

On a cheerful side, the Paris became the entertainment capital of Europe: legalization and proliferation of can-can in the Parisian places of entertainment killed any potential competition because where else acrobatics inn the pantalettes would be permitted? 😂

Spain [2]
For quite a while, the progress was impeded first by the reign of the King Ferdinand VII, who tended to see a dangerous liberalism in any form of a progress.

View attachment 777107
After his death the reforms had been delayed by the Carlist War which lasted from 1833 till 1840 causing serious damage.
View attachment 777109
In the colonies things were noticeably better. Thanks to the reforms of Infante Gabrielle conducted in the late XVIII - early XIX Spain retained its colonial empire that was reformed based upon the principle Viribus Unitis: the commonality of the Spanish Empire was recognized as a community of differences, which actually meant recognition of the right of self-determination for the colonies, albeit limited. The colonies got a right to conduct their trade with whoever they wanted and to handle their own domestic affairs.


In Spain itself by the early 1840s industrialization was on its early stages and the country remained mostly agrarian but there were visible developments in its textile and mining industries.
The import of goods constantly exceeded exports, the government covered the deficit by introducing new taxes, foreign and domestic loans. Despite the obvious progress, Spain remained one of the most backward countries in Europe, which was too noticeable in agriculture, where feudal relations still prevailed: about 70% of arable land remained uncultivated, yields were very low. The main cultivated crops in Spain remained wheat and barley. Nevertheless, new, more profitable crops began to be cultivated, ensuring higher profitability of production, such as vineyards, citrus and olive plantations. In the middle of the XIX century, Spain became a leader in wine production. The main problem in increasing yields in Spanish agriculture was the need for peasants to ensure forced irrigation of their land. As in the northern and eastern regions of Spain, these actions bore fruit, then in the southern regions everything was worse. Only the Guadalquivir River valley remained convenient.

The first railway line was built in 1848 and connected cities Mataro and Barcelona.
View attachment 777102
There have also been noticeable changes in the financial and credit sector of Spain in the mid-19th century. Financial activities were focused closer to the restructuring of public finances. The first bank, Banco de Isabel II, was founded in 1844.

Sweden.
Sweden was enjoying a prolonged period of peace.
View attachment 777154
At the start of the XIX century Sweden was a predominantly agricultural country. Agriculture employed more than 80 per cent of her population, whose growth was relatively slow; the agricultural production was scarcely sufficient to support them. Sweden depended on imported grain, although to a dwindling extent, up to about 1830. At this time, a change occurred. Agriculture developed so greatly that it was able to support an increasing population as well as to produce a surplus for export. The Swedish agricultural exports during a short period after the middle of the 19th century began to compete with the iron exports for its position as the second largest export branch.

Coincident with the expanding agricultural yields, signs can be detected of an industrial growth after 1830. Iron mining, the production of pig iron and of bar iron expanded at about 3 per cent per annum after 1830 and the textile industry experienced a very rapid upward trend. The value of cotton fabric and linen fabric rose by about 20 per cent per annum. The number of workers employed in the factories increased by about 3.5 per cent per annum, while the production value rose by about 10 per cent per annum, which means that the productivity improved substantially. Further development of the iron industry was stimulated by the foreign competition .
Swedish timber industry also began to develop. Exports kept growing from 1830 when the old water-driven sawmills began to be replaced by stearn sawmills whose capacity was larger. This allowed them to change their location from the inland waterfalls to the coast.

This period witnessed increasing regional specialization with mining in Bergslagen, textile mills in Sjuhäradsbygden and forestry in Norrland. Several important institutional changes took place in this period, such as free and mandatory public schooling introduced 1842 (as the first country in the world), the abolishment of a previous national monopoly on trade in handicrafts - the skråväsendet - in 1846, and a stock company law in 1848.

The only big potential problem was the fate of the Swedish possession Bremen-Verden. With the steadily if slowly expanding Prussia this territory became increasingly vulnerable bringing up the obvious question if retaining it worth the trouble. The possessions on the Baltic were secured by the Baltic Alliance with its naval domination and ability (and willingness) to deploy the overwhelming force, which was already demonstrated more than once. However, Bremen-Verden was simply too far to be securely protected from a potential invasion and its return would require a major war. OTOH, so far Prussia was a friendly state and a diplomatic solution was not out of question.
View attachment 777119
King Gustav V was in a prolonged discussion with his Prussian counterpart, Frederick William IV, regarding the possible solutions.
View attachment 777121
So far, two options were on the table:
  • Prussian purchase of the territory.
  • Swap of Bremen-Verden for the piece of a territory adjacent to the Swedish-held Danzig area.
View attachment 777122
Neither side was in a hurry but it looked like some consensus could be eventually reached.

Poland.
After the death of Frederick Augustus I in 1827, the kingdom, as per Constitution of 1791, was ruled by his son-in-law King Jozef I.
View attachment 777129

The reign was relatively uneventful, mostly because the country was surrounded by the stronger neighbors and the ideas regarding getting back some of the lost territories had been expressed only by few lunatics and mostly after the serious drinking. OTOH, after the great war of 1805-06 the borders were seemingly secure and a prolonged peace allowed further development of the textile manufacturing. The exports of grain had been going on through the Swedish Danzig and some of the high quality textiles were exported to Russia. So nothing of a serious interest there.

Britain
Was going full speed ahead with the industrialization while spending huge amounts of money on updating its navy: the lessons of the last war had been learned.

View attachment 777135
To secure the route to India, a colonial settlement to the East of the Cape Colony was founded and the active expansion in India continued. Trade with China finally became profitable but not exactly in the way initially anticipated. Unofficial smuggling of opium was officially overlooked but most of the official imports were machinery and know how. The textiles did not pick up and the merchants could not freely travel inside China. The “useful” goods had been purchased by the Chinese merchants in the open ports and resold inland.


_______
[1] In OTL he died in 1840.
[2] This is a synopsis of the alt. history of Spain caused by Infante Gabrielle (who in OTL died much earlier not making too much of a splash) https://alternathistory.com/glava-ii-reformy-gabrielinosov-gran-espana-v/#reformy-kolonij and https://m.vk.com/@genialnoandprosto-ekonomika-ispanii-19-veka
So, even without the Napoleonic invasion involving the destruction of many small industries, the social distress of the war, the enormous debt from the war with France and the multiple independence wars, the abandonment of the fleet and it's supporting industries, the losing of the revenues from the colonies and more than 500.000 deaths from the war all in Spain remains the same except the not so independence of the colonies.

A Spain without Napoleonic invasion is like a Russia without WW1, that is a very different country.

I think is not at par with the very, very good level of the rest of the TL.
 
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So, even without the Napoleonic invasion involving the destruction of many small industries, the social distress of the war, the enormous debt from the war with France and the multiple independence wars, the abandonment of the fleet and it's supporting industries, the losing of the revenues from the colonies and more than 500.000 deaths from the war all in Spain remains the same except the not so independence of the colonies.

A Spain without Napoleonic invasion is like a Russia without WW1, that is a very different country.

I think is not at par with the very, very good level of the rest of the TL.
Spain was not an advanced country before the Napoleonic wars and it would have Ferdinand as a king following the 1st Carlist war. Neither is conductive to the early industrialization and progress in general.

Regarding the navy, yes, it did have a lot of ships but “Trafalgar” of Benito Perez Galdos paints a rather depressing picture of the personnel problems and general neglect. Hopefully, nobody would accuse him of being unpatriotic.

If you want analogies with Russia, it was not an advanced country by 1812 either and its future delayed development was not due to the invasion but to the numerous social and economic problems from which Spain would not be immune either. And, unlike Spain, Russia was a leading iron producer by the early XIX but remained economically backward until the late XIX. So there is nothing unique or insulting in the assumption that the industrial development of Spain starts in the late 1830s and does not result in the immediate miracles. Most of Europe was predominantly agricultural by the 1830s, so what?

BTW, Spain did have the colonies starting from the XVI century and still was a backward country by the early XIX so the colonial part is hardly an argument. Besides, with the colonies getting practically independent, what revenue can you expect from them?
 
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The Spanish have Oregon, that is certainly interesting. The USA does not have a coastline on the Pacific.
I don't think they actually control Oregon so much as claim it (like Russia, Britain and the US did) especially given how despite the reforms, they're still very overextended and need to spend money and focus on modernizing the country before actually attempting more colonization stuff, especially because they're already have their plate full dealing with the Americans and the New Orleans territory.
 
Well, this solves a good part of Spain's problems, now it just needs to receive some French investment and maybe in a few decades it can really be the third naval power again. Regarding the colonies without the total chaos of independence, free trade and their own autonomy over their own affairs, I imagine the population is suffering a very strong demographic explosion.

If France does not want Louisiana, I can see the division of North America remain the same as in the Adams-Onís Treaty and if someone wants the Spanish-American War to end in WW1, it could happen that the Americans try to take over the Panama Canal built for Spain with French capital and cause the domino effect that brings the rest to war.
 
I still assume that war against America should happen on same schedule as American/Mexican war (1846 - 1848), just this time America will get Louisiana. Otherwise other option would be to outright sell it to the Americans and focus on consolidation of Texas. One way, or another i don't see Spain keeping Louisiana.

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Also nice that Sweden and Prussia are finally addressing their difference's.
 
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