It was irrelevant in the Syrian war in OTL and I’m not even completely sure how I’m going to handle the whole mess with the existing participants without starting a major war. Spain may be an useful ally to France but this does not mean that it automatically jumps into its each and every action. As long as France and Russia are trying to screw Britain without escalating conflict into a war, Spain is simply not needed: these two have a local naval advantage which they can use as a diplomatic tool. If it comes to war, than it is a different story.
No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)
- Thread starter alexmilman
- Start date
Regarding Spanish industrialization, i actually support it happening, not only because of it being open to trade, but because it's French ally, i imagine France investing heavily in Spain similarly to how it invested in Russia in otl, especially since strong Spain with strong Navy that's depended on France makes for a good ally against the British.
Otherwise regarding Moltke surviving, i mean why not, given that Russia is industrializing earlier and had much smoother time sailing down, plus France is doing a lot better even strengthened Prussia, or heck even united Germany won't be challenge, nor will it want to pick a fight with Russia in this TL (plus it would be useful to have strong ally if there is any need to clash heads with the French)
Beside the lack of direct clash of interest with Russia when we speak about indirect conflict of interests (Sweden/Poland), once again i don't think that Prussia will pick a fight with any of them and honestly it would be good if Sweden and Prussia do manage to find some way to work things out opposed to keeping Prussia stagnant, otherwise i do still hope to see formation of Germany as even with this TL groundwork for unification is already there , plus it will spice things up in the continent . Once again I'm of opinion that even united Germany won't try to pick a fight against the French, or Russians, though i wouldn't be against of Prussia claiming territories of N.G.Confederation (minus some lands of interest) and formally seceding from HRE, while HRE remains Catholic Southern Germany led by Austria.
Otherwise regarding Moltke surviving, i mean why not, given that Russia is industrializing earlier and had much smoother time sailing down, plus France is doing a lot better even strengthened Prussia, or heck even united Germany won't be challenge, nor will it want to pick a fight with Russia in this TL (plus it would be useful to have strong ally if there is any need to clash heads with the French)
Beside the lack of direct clash of interest with Russia when we speak about indirect conflict of interests (Sweden/Poland), once again i don't think that Prussia will pick a fight with any of them and honestly it would be good if Sweden and Prussia do manage to find some way to work things out opposed to keeping Prussia stagnant, otherwise i do still hope to see formation of Germany as even with this TL groundwork for unification is already there , plus it will spice things up in the continent . Once again I'm of opinion that even united Germany won't try to pick a fight against the French, or Russians, though i wouldn't be against of Prussia claiming territories of N.G.Confederation (minus some lands of interest) and formally seceding from HRE, while HRE remains Catholic Southern Germany led by Austria.
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In a long run, why not? I was just commenting regarding involvement of Spain in this specific crisis. Spain did not suffer through the OTL wars but it is inevitably suffered from the reign of Ferdinand VII and the following dynastic crisis that started in 1833 with the 1st Carlist War lasting until 1840. There have to be a lot of the very serious changes for Spain being a strong international player by the late 1830’s even if we are assuming that all that time the colonies keep absolutely quiet and loyal because Ferdinand suddenly changed his personality and found a formula addressing all problems on the other side of the Pacific.
That’s fine but is Moltke needed in this scenario? Either this split happens peacefully and you don’t need him or there is a war and how am I going to use Moltke if the OTL scenario already had been used in the GPW? I’m definitely not a military genius and can’t invent the equally brilliant alternative plan. 😢 Everything else does not require too much besides existing overall Prussian military superiority (well, add few more Krupp guns to make it more clear) and generally competent generals who in OTL, anyway, kept trying to do things the way they wanted and not as they being told.
Then think “globally”. Without the Franco-Prussian war, Moltke is not an iconic figure and there are no two generations of the General Staff officers trying to emulate his ideas with the results well known. The German General Staff is not such a powerful institution as it was in OTL and this is important for a more peaceful future.
Mittelspiel and Endspiel
218. Mittelspiel and Endspiel
[Main source: W.L. Clowes on the 1840 Syrian Campaign ; of course, with the necessary corrections 😂]
Mittelspiel
Things were not going as expected but Palmerston was as good in bluffing as anybody else. Why not pretend that everything is going as it should? Instructions had been sent to Stopford and the joined British and Austrian ultimatum been delivered to Alexandria, the Cyclops, 6 gun paddle, under command of Captain Horatio Thomas Austin who was directed to await the return of a reply.
The ultimatum was simple. The two Powers offered Mehemet Ali that if, within a given time, he would evacuate Arabia, Syria, Crete, and other possessions of the Porte which he had occupied, and would make certain additional concessions, he should be made hereditary viceroy of Egypt, and might hold St. Jean d'Acre and some other territories during his life. If not, he would be deprived of all his dominions; and the two Powers would execute the sentence. He was allowed ten days wherein to make up his mind upon some of the proposals, and ten days more wherein to decide as to the rest of them.
Needless to say that Cyclops was very underwhelming blackmail tool and Muhammed Ali behaved accordingly. Of course, when he declared that he would not withdraw his troops at the bidding of anyone he also was bluffing because prior to the Cyclops visit he already got much more intimidating visitors with much better proposals.
Couple weeks prior to the Cyclop Alexandria was visited by 2 Russian and 2 French 40 gun steam frigates carrying the allied representatives with the following proposal:
He was warned that while the Porte is ready to grant these conditions now it all may change if Britain and Austria are going to propose Sultan Abdul the better conditions, which they are ready to do. France and Russia are ready to help Muhammed Ali but they are not going to get into the war on his behalf and the most he can expect is their attempt to delay the British attack (and perhaps some useful advice). To make their presence less noticeable, the ships anchored in the Abū Qīr Bay.
While the captain of the Cyclops had been staying at Alexandria to afford o the last a locus penitentiae Muhammed Ali, admiral Stopford wrote on August 8th to Captain Napier, C.B., of the Powerful, 84 guns, who was off the coast of Karamania, directing him to hoist a broad (blue) pennant as Commodore of the third class, and, taking under his orders, besides the Powerful, the Ganges, 84, Thunderer, 84, Edinburgh, 72, Castor, 36, and Gorgon, 6, paddle, to proceed to Beirut. Napier received the dispatch on August 10th, and, two days later, anchored before the town. Beirut was chosen because it was on the flank of the Egyptian advance; because it was the best port in the neighbourhood of the Lebanon, the semi-independent inhabitants of which, under their own chief, the Emir Beschir, had recently rebelled against Mehemet Ali; and because it was hoped to support and utilise the mountaineers against the invader. Beirut itself, however, was occupied by about 11,000 men of the Egyptian army, and by about 4000 Turkish soldiers, who had been landed from the deserting fleet. In military command was Suleiman Pasha, a very capable French renegade. His camp lay outside, and to the northward of, the town, the seaward defences of which, consisting chiefly of three forts, were too old to be of any serious value.
There was one serious problem. Right between Napier and the town there was almost the whole Russian-French joined squadron of 17 ships of the line, 13 frigates and few smaller ships.
Napier was a brave man but not a suicidal maniac and, anyway, starting a major war on his own initiative was more than a little bit too much even for an officer famous for his insubordination. Under the watchful eyes of the allied admirals he sent messengers to the governor of the place, commander of the renegade Turkish troops, Emir Bashir Shihab II, chief of the Lebanon [3] and, of course, the British consul Richard Wood.
He also, rather unwisely, made threats of taking action after expiration of the 20 days grace period set by the British ultimatum but under the circumstances, these threats did not sound too intimidating. Neither was he successful in his attempt to detain the ships proceeding up the coast with the supplies: the allied steam and sail frigates had been cruising along the coast offering protection to these ships and his pathetic little paddlers were not a match for the 40 guns frigates. An idea of the landing with the following attack on the forts (which he was intended to lead personally) did not work out. The boats had been intercepted while rowing to the coast and commanders of the landing party politely asked to turn back to their ships to avoid the unfortunate accident: the steam frigates and corvettes just happening to maneuver in this area and could occasionally ram the boats. The next time the boats managed to get close to the shore just to find few thousands Egyptian troops with the cannons along it and the paddlers blocked from getting closer by the allied warships.
Even arrival of the additional British ships, the Magicienne, 24, paddle, the Wasp, 16, the Revenge, 76, and later by the Benbow, 72 and Pique, 36, did not noticeably change the equation in his favor. Finally, on September 9th, the main body of the British and Austrian fleet appeared improving the odds, which was still not good, especially taking into an account the imbalance of the ships of the line (14 vs 17) and sail and steam ships. Admiral Stopford considered it wise to open communications with the admirals of the allied fleet and got what looked like the standard response. The Russian and French ships are there on a direct request of the Sultan and conduct an action approved by the Sultan’s government. On which authority the British and Austrian forces are acting and what are their intentions? The allied fleet is there to protect Beirut during the ongoing Ottoman-Egyptian communications and is not going to allow any disruptive acts like bombardment of the city or landing of the troops unauthorized by the Sultan’s government. In a face-to-face unofficial meeting between the two fleet commanders, Lazarev informed Stopford that he has a full authorization both from the Emperor and the Sultan to use all necessary means dictated by the circumstances and that his French colleague has similar authorization from his government. However, due to his deep sympathy to his British colleagues of the previous war, he has to inform Sir Robert that, while Beirut, Sidon and Alexandria are on the list of the places he must protect, there are no similar instructions regarding St. Jean d’Acre so he does not have to leave the theater without any accomplishment. Information was received with a gratitude, the admirals parted on good terms and Sir Robert remained for a while at Beirut waiting for the Admiralty’s authorization of the changed plan.
It was obvious to the allied leadership that MA is not going to agree voluntarily to any concessions unless he is getting some comprehensive beating. Why would he with his army being victorious and his coastal defenses intact? So become more accommodating, he would need to get a bloody nose. Of course, the Russian and French troops presently guarding the European side of the Straits can be carried across the Dardanelles and defeat Ibrahim’s army or rather a part of it that was still on the border. But why waste your own soldiers when somebody else was eager to do the job? The Brits and Austrians had been itching for action so they must get it. Obviously, this will be done by an amphibious attack on one of the ports and the two most tempting ones were Alexandria and Beirut. Alexandria was a stronger nut to crack and the Brits already had a bad experience there. Beirut was reasonably far away from the Egyptian resources and even more important because, besides being a big port, it was abutting the areas which were not too firmly under MS’s control and, given a chance, will support the invaders. However, just by these reasons Beirut must not be falling into the British hands. It will be too difficult to get them out and MA may loose more than the allies considered necessary. So the attack on it should be prevented by a show of the overwhelming force and behavior which would make attack impossible. OTOH, the Brits (does anybody care about the Austrians?) should not be left empty-handed because such a massive loss of prestige will generate enormous hysteria on the island and the form of resulting idiocy will be hard to predict. Anyway, they must win a victory so their commander must be led to a target that is reasonably but not critically important and has defenses capable of providing a certain degree of a resistance, both to give the attackers some glory and to cool them down a little bit discouraging the further adventures. Sidon was on a “taboo” list because it was the main depot for the southern division of the Egyptian army, and was full of stores and ammunition and not well protected. St. Jean d’Acre looked like a good candidate, especially if some French engineers and artillerymen will be unofficially send there to inspect the existing situation, give some professional advice and leave before the action starts. The place had fortifications which were very strong towards the sea, and mounted 130 guns, and about 30 mortars. The fortress had been in the occupation of the Egyptians since 1837, and it had since been continually strengthened; but it was still far from what Ibrahim Pasha's engineers had intended to make it.
Sir Robert Stopford showed some unwillingness to attack St. Jean d’Acre without orders; but at length there came definite instructions from the Admiralty; and, in accordance with them, on October 31st, the fleet, which still lay off Beirut, was directed to take on board a large force of troops, and to prepare for sea. On the same evening it sailed, the ships, British, Austrian and Turkish, including eight of the line, five frigates, five steamers preceded the squadron, and summoned Acre to surrender. The rest of the expedition, detained by light winds, did not anchor off the place until the evening of November 2nd. "The town," says report, "is low, standing on an angle presenting two faces to the sea, both walled and covered with cannon - in one place a double tier." After further soundings had been made under cover of the darkness, it was decided that it would be difficult to take the ships close enough in to breach the walls within a reasonable time. It was therefore determined to open a general bombardment of the town.
Slowly, due to the light wind, the ships came close to the shallow area and anchored there before opening fire.
Bombardment of St. Jean d’Acre and value of a good advise. The French officers who visited the fortress came to two important conclusions:
The bombardment continued for more than 4 hours before lucky shot hit the main magazine. A most frightful explosion then flung half the town into the air, and shook every ship to her keel, the concussion knocking down the seamen at their guns half a mile away. The grand magazine had blown up, killing, it is believed, upwards of 1200 people, and absolutely wrecking a space of about 60,000 square yards. This awful catastrophe sounded the fate of the town, the firing from which thereafter weakened, though a few guns were gallantly worked until the last. Towards sunset Stopford signalled to discontinue the action. Napier, however, who already, in consequence of a shift of wind, had taken up a position different from the one assigned to the Powerful (#2 on the scheme) in the original plan of attack, was, as usual, a law unto himself, and persisted with an intermittent fire until the Flag-Lieutenant brought him orders to withdraw. He then had to get a steamer to tow him out of gunshot. His action on this occasion brought on unpleasant friction with the Commander-in-Chief, and led the Commodore to demand a court-martial, which was very properly refused. The Egyptian loss was heavy, even leaving out that caused by the explosion. About three hundred people were killed in the batteries, and nearly all the guns on the sea face were disabled.
The fleet, however, also did not get away easy. Wasp (#13 , brig-sloop, sail, 18), Hazard (#12, sloop, sail, 18), Stromboli (#16, 1st class sloop, paddle, 6) and Castor (#8, fifth rate, sail, 26) had been either sunk or damaged beyond the repair and there were noticeable damages on some other ships, especially Talbot (#11), Edinburg (#7) [5].
Soon after midnight Rear-Admiral/Captain Walker observed that the enemy was evacuating the town, and sent word to that effect to Stopford and Napier. Early on the 4th, the troops, and some Austrian marines were landed and took quiet possession of the place while the Egyptians fled to the southward. The landing party was led personally by Archduke Frederich.
It was determined (disregarding the given advice) to detach Napier to take command off Alexandria with Thunderer, Rodney, Revenge, Vanguard, Cambridge, Carysfort, and Austrian Medea. There, with characteristic independence, and without any official authority, he tried to enter into negotiations with Mehemet Ali sending as his emissary captain Sir Thomas Mansel. Starting from this point things started getting funny.
Endspiel
The Porte, the British Ambassador at Constantinople, Sir Robert Stopford, and Sir Charles Smith, all disapproved strongly of Napier's action, and denied his right to take such a course but, with the treaty signed, it did not matter and Palmerston even thanked Napier for his valiant attempt to set issue to the British satisfaction. Bombardment of Acre was acknowledged as a great victory and other not too glorious events had been simply ignored as irrelevant. Napier became KCB. The Admiralty finally acknowledged usefulness of the steamers and even, grudgingly but nonetheless, conceded that a screw is not such a bad thing.
Archduke Frederich for his exceptional leadership during the campaign he was appointed Knight of the Military Order of Maria Theresa. Now he was an undisputed Austrian top authority on the things naval. In 1844 he was promoted to the rank of vice admiral and took office as Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Austrian Navy at the age of twenty-three. As Commander-in-Chief, Friedrich introduced many modernising reforms, aiming to make his country's naval force less "Venetian" but more "Austrian". Friedrich's term as Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Austrian Navy was cut short. He died of jaundice in Venice at the age of twenty-six, only three years after taking office.
In France and Russia there was a deep sight of a relief: the complicated conflict had been resolved as planned without a single French or Russian shot being fired in anger. Promotions and awards had been showered upon the participants. Everybody agreed that this was probably Generalissimo’s most brilliant campaign.
The Sultan was satisfied, at least for the time being and so was Muhammed Ali. Both, again, for the time being, learned who are their …er… “true friends”.
___________
[1] “England, England, when something happens why is it always immediately ‘England’” ‘That famous Munchausen’
[2] “- What if they refuse? - Then open fire!” ‘Royal hunt’
[3] Taking into an account that Bashir's Druze and Christian rivals and dissidents to his rule in Mount Lebanon were courted and armed in an initiative by the British Foreign Secretary, Lord Palmerston and that they launched an armed rebellion against him in May 1840, which he just managed to temporarily suppress by confiscating property from the rebels, issuing threats and offering tax reductions to uninvolved Druze sheikhs in return for their support, this specific step hardly could produce any positive result. In OTL he was also approached by the British consul but remained loyal to MA. Of course, he also expected arrival of the French expeditionary force which did not materialize.
[4] The “Turkish” amounted to the Ottoman 84-gun ship commanded by the Ottoman Rear Admiral, who also happened to be Captain of the R.N. Baldwin Wake Walker, and a cutter, 8, captured from the Egyptians.
[5] Unlike the Egyptian losses, this part is ITTL so no numbers. 😜
“Mittelspiel - The middlegame in chess is the portion of the game in between the opening and the endgame, though there is no clear line between the opening and middlegame or between the middlegame and endgame.”
“Endspiel - The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces.”
«Англия, Англия, чуть что так сразу ‘Англия’»
‘Тот самый Мюнхгаузен’ [1]
«- А если они откажутся? - Тогда стреляй!»
‘Царская охота’ [2]
“Well, yes, I'll tell you the truth.
But I didn't resort to a sword or a knive,
-Didn't touch Carlos. Only helped with advice.”
V. Hugo ‘Ruy Blas’
“You’re very, very good,
And be it understood,
I command a right good crew.”
Gilbert and Sullivan “HMS Pinafore”
“Sir Charles Napier was a man of undoubted energy and courage, but of no less eccentricity and vanity”
the Encyclopædia Britannica entry of 1911
“Endspiel - The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces.”
«Англия, Англия, чуть что так сразу ‘Англия’»
‘Тот самый Мюнхгаузен’ [1]
«- А если они откажутся? - Тогда стреляй!»
‘Царская охота’ [2]
“Well, yes, I'll tell you the truth.
But I didn't resort to a sword or a knive,
-Didn't touch Carlos. Only helped with advice.”
V. Hugo ‘Ruy Blas’
“You’re very, very good,
And be it understood,
I command a right good crew.”
Gilbert and Sullivan “HMS Pinafore”
“Sir Charles Napier was a man of undoubted energy and courage, but of no less eccentricity and vanity”
the Encyclopædia Britannica entry of 1911
[Main source: W.L. Clowes on the 1840 Syrian Campaign ; of course, with the necessary corrections 😂]
Mittelspiel
Things were not going as expected but Palmerston was as good in bluffing as anybody else. Why not pretend that everything is going as it should? Instructions had been sent to Stopford and the joined British and Austrian ultimatum been delivered to Alexandria, the Cyclops, 6 gun paddle, under command of Captain Horatio Thomas Austin who was directed to await the return of a reply.
The ultimatum was simple. The two Powers offered Mehemet Ali that if, within a given time, he would evacuate Arabia, Syria, Crete, and other possessions of the Porte which he had occupied, and would make certain additional concessions, he should be made hereditary viceroy of Egypt, and might hold St. Jean d'Acre and some other territories during his life. If not, he would be deprived of all his dominions; and the two Powers would execute the sentence. He was allowed ten days wherein to make up his mind upon some of the proposals, and ten days more wherein to decide as to the rest of them.
Needless to say that Cyclops was very underwhelming blackmail tool and Muhammed Ali behaved accordingly. Of course, when he declared that he would not withdraw his troops at the bidding of anyone he also was bluffing because prior to the Cyclops visit he already got much more intimidating visitors with much better proposals.
Couple weeks prior to the Cyclop Alexandria was visited by 2 Russian and 2 French 40 gun steam frigates carrying the allied representatives with the following proposal:
- Muhammed Ali will return to the Sultan Northern Syria with Aleppo and Homs but not Damascus and everything to the South of it, Arabia without Hejaz and Asir (aka, the holy sites) and Crete (which he will not be able to hold anyway, against the Brits).
- He will return the Ottoman fleet as a good will gesture (for the Sultan’s prestige this will be an important token). In return he will be allowed to buy 4 modern 20 gun steamships, 2 from France and 2 from Russia.
- He will be made a hereditary viceroy of all remaining territories in his possession (Egypt, Lebanon, the rest of Syria and all the Northern coast of the Red Sea including the pilgrimage places with the related titles (and income).
- While he will be obliged to pay annual tribute to the Sultan, he is going to be free in establishing his own tariff and trade policies on his territories.
He was warned that while the Porte is ready to grant these conditions now it all may change if Britain and Austria are going to propose Sultan Abdul the better conditions, which they are ready to do. France and Russia are ready to help Muhammed Ali but they are not going to get into the war on his behalf and the most he can expect is their attempt to delay the British attack (and perhaps some useful advice). To make their presence less noticeable, the ships anchored in the Abū Qīr Bay.
While the captain of the Cyclops had been staying at Alexandria to afford o the last a locus penitentiae Muhammed Ali, admiral Stopford wrote on August 8th to Captain Napier, C.B., of the Powerful, 84 guns, who was off the coast of Karamania, directing him to hoist a broad (blue) pennant as Commodore of the third class, and, taking under his orders, besides the Powerful, the Ganges, 84, Thunderer, 84, Edinburgh, 72, Castor, 36, and Gorgon, 6, paddle, to proceed to Beirut. Napier received the dispatch on August 10th, and, two days later, anchored before the town. Beirut was chosen because it was on the flank of the Egyptian advance; because it was the best port in the neighbourhood of the Lebanon, the semi-independent inhabitants of which, under their own chief, the Emir Beschir, had recently rebelled against Mehemet Ali; and because it was hoped to support and utilise the mountaineers against the invader. Beirut itself, however, was occupied by about 11,000 men of the Egyptian army, and by about 4000 Turkish soldiers, who had been landed from the deserting fleet. In military command was Suleiman Pasha, a very capable French renegade. His camp lay outside, and to the northward of, the town, the seaward defences of which, consisting chiefly of three forts, were too old to be of any serious value.
There was one serious problem. Right between Napier and the town there was almost the whole Russian-French joined squadron of 17 ships of the line, 13 frigates and few smaller ships.
Napier was a brave man but not a suicidal maniac and, anyway, starting a major war on his own initiative was more than a little bit too much even for an officer famous for his insubordination. Under the watchful eyes of the allied admirals he sent messengers to the governor of the place, commander of the renegade Turkish troops, Emir Bashir Shihab II, chief of the Lebanon [3] and, of course, the British consul Richard Wood.
He also, rather unwisely, made threats of taking action after expiration of the 20 days grace period set by the British ultimatum but under the circumstances, these threats did not sound too intimidating. Neither was he successful in his attempt to detain the ships proceeding up the coast with the supplies: the allied steam and sail frigates had been cruising along the coast offering protection to these ships and his pathetic little paddlers were not a match for the 40 guns frigates. An idea of the landing with the following attack on the forts (which he was intended to lead personally) did not work out. The boats had been intercepted while rowing to the coast and commanders of the landing party politely asked to turn back to their ships to avoid the unfortunate accident: the steam frigates and corvettes just happening to maneuver in this area and could occasionally ram the boats. The next time the boats managed to get close to the shore just to find few thousands Egyptian troops with the cannons along it and the paddlers blocked from getting closer by the allied warships.
Even arrival of the additional British ships, the Magicienne, 24, paddle, the Wasp, 16, the Revenge, 76, and later by the Benbow, 72 and Pique, 36, did not noticeably change the equation in his favor. Finally, on September 9th, the main body of the British and Austrian fleet appeared improving the odds, which was still not good, especially taking into an account the imbalance of the ships of the line (14 vs 17) and sail and steam ships. Admiral Stopford considered it wise to open communications with the admirals of the allied fleet and got what looked like the standard response. The Russian and French ships are there on a direct request of the Sultan and conduct an action approved by the Sultan’s government. On which authority the British and Austrian forces are acting and what are their intentions? The allied fleet is there to protect Beirut during the ongoing Ottoman-Egyptian communications and is not going to allow any disruptive acts like bombardment of the city or landing of the troops unauthorized by the Sultan’s government. In a face-to-face unofficial meeting between the two fleet commanders, Lazarev informed Stopford that he has a full authorization both from the Emperor and the Sultan to use all necessary means dictated by the circumstances and that his French colleague has similar authorization from his government. However, due to his deep sympathy to his British colleagues of the previous war, he has to inform Sir Robert that, while Beirut, Sidon and Alexandria are on the list of the places he must protect, there are no similar instructions regarding St. Jean d’Acre so he does not have to leave the theater without any accomplishment. Information was received with a gratitude, the admirals parted on good terms and Sir Robert remained for a while at Beirut waiting for the Admiralty’s authorization of the changed plan.
It was obvious to the allied leadership that MA is not going to agree voluntarily to any concessions unless he is getting some comprehensive beating. Why would he with his army being victorious and his coastal defenses intact? So become more accommodating, he would need to get a bloody nose. Of course, the Russian and French troops presently guarding the European side of the Straits can be carried across the Dardanelles and defeat Ibrahim’s army or rather a part of it that was still on the border. But why waste your own soldiers when somebody else was eager to do the job? The Brits and Austrians had been itching for action so they must get it. Obviously, this will be done by an amphibious attack on one of the ports and the two most tempting ones were Alexandria and Beirut. Alexandria was a stronger nut to crack and the Brits already had a bad experience there. Beirut was reasonably far away from the Egyptian resources and even more important because, besides being a big port, it was abutting the areas which were not too firmly under MS’s control and, given a chance, will support the invaders. However, just by these reasons Beirut must not be falling into the British hands. It will be too difficult to get them out and MA may loose more than the allies considered necessary. So the attack on it should be prevented by a show of the overwhelming force and behavior which would make attack impossible. OTOH, the Brits (does anybody care about the Austrians?) should not be left empty-handed because such a massive loss of prestige will generate enormous hysteria on the island and the form of resulting idiocy will be hard to predict. Anyway, they must win a victory so their commander must be led to a target that is reasonably but not critically important and has defenses capable of providing a certain degree of a resistance, both to give the attackers some glory and to cool them down a little bit discouraging the further adventures. Sidon was on a “taboo” list because it was the main depot for the southern division of the Egyptian army, and was full of stores and ammunition and not well protected. St. Jean d’Acre looked like a good candidate, especially if some French engineers and artillerymen will be unofficially send there to inspect the existing situation, give some professional advice and leave before the action starts. The place had fortifications which were very strong towards the sea, and mounted 130 guns, and about 30 mortars. The fortress had been in the occupation of the Egyptians since 1837, and it had since been continually strengthened; but it was still far from what Ibrahim Pasha's engineers had intended to make it.
Sir Robert Stopford showed some unwillingness to attack St. Jean d’Acre without orders; but at length there came definite instructions from the Admiralty; and, in accordance with them, on October 31st, the fleet, which still lay off Beirut, was directed to take on board a large force of troops, and to prepare for sea. On the same evening it sailed, the ships, British, Austrian and Turkish, including eight of the line, five frigates, five steamers preceded the squadron, and summoned Acre to surrender. The rest of the expedition, detained by light winds, did not anchor off the place until the evening of November 2nd. "The town," says report, "is low, standing on an angle presenting two faces to the sea, both walled and covered with cannon - in one place a double tier." After further soundings had been made under cover of the darkness, it was decided that it would be difficult to take the ships close enough in to breach the walls within a reasonable time. It was therefore determined to open a general bombardment of the town.
Slowly, due to the light wind, the ships came close to the shallow area and anchored there before opening fire.
Bombardment of St. Jean d’Acre and value of a good advise. The French officers who visited the fortress came to two important conclusions:
- It is not in a condition allowing to withstand a prolonged naval bombardment and there is no time to make the fundamental changes needed.
- Due to a rather optimistic assumption that the enemy will not risk going to the border of shoal the defenders built up the lower part of the embrasures with stones and sandbags for protection ; so that they could not depress their guns.
The bombardment continued for more than 4 hours before lucky shot hit the main magazine. A most frightful explosion then flung half the town into the air, and shook every ship to her keel, the concussion knocking down the seamen at their guns half a mile away. The grand magazine had blown up, killing, it is believed, upwards of 1200 people, and absolutely wrecking a space of about 60,000 square yards. This awful catastrophe sounded the fate of the town, the firing from which thereafter weakened, though a few guns were gallantly worked until the last. Towards sunset Stopford signalled to discontinue the action. Napier, however, who already, in consequence of a shift of wind, had taken up a position different from the one assigned to the Powerful (#2 on the scheme) in the original plan of attack, was, as usual, a law unto himself, and persisted with an intermittent fire until the Flag-Lieutenant brought him orders to withdraw. He then had to get a steamer to tow him out of gunshot. His action on this occasion brought on unpleasant friction with the Commander-in-Chief, and led the Commodore to demand a court-martial, which was very properly refused. The Egyptian loss was heavy, even leaving out that caused by the explosion. About three hundred people were killed in the batteries, and nearly all the guns on the sea face were disabled.
The fleet, however, also did not get away easy. Wasp (#13 , brig-sloop, sail, 18), Hazard (#12, sloop, sail, 18), Stromboli (#16, 1st class sloop, paddle, 6) and Castor (#8, fifth rate, sail, 26) had been either sunk or damaged beyond the repair and there were noticeable damages on some other ships, especially Talbot (#11), Edinburg (#7) [5].
Soon after midnight Rear-Admiral/Captain Walker observed that the enemy was evacuating the town, and sent word to that effect to Stopford and Napier. Early on the 4th, the troops, and some Austrian marines were landed and took quiet possession of the place while the Egyptians fled to the southward. The landing party was led personally by Archduke Frederich.
It was determined (disregarding the given advice) to detach Napier to take command off Alexandria with Thunderer, Rodney, Revenge, Vanguard, Cambridge, Carysfort, and Austrian Medea. There, with characteristic independence, and without any official authority, he tried to enter into negotiations with Mehemet Ali sending as his emissary captain Sir Thomas Mansel. Starting from this point things started getting funny.
Endspiel
- Sir Thomas was informed that MA already accepted the Sultan’s proposals conveyed by the Russian and French representatives and asked what now became a standard question about whom he is representing and why he is interfering in the process.
- Nappier, quite predictably, got mad and send a message that only the British conditions do matter and that he is planning personally to enter Alexandria in the Medea to met Muhammed Ali and explain things to him.
- When he did arrive, he was warmly greeted by the Pasha who offered him to look back at the harbor. The sight was not encouraging: judging by the columns of smoke, the numerous steamships had been entering the harbor cutting his squadron from the sea. The Russian and French (damned foreigners) officers promptly appeared from behind the backs of Pasha’s retinue and informed Sir Charles that, indeed the Pasha already accepted Sultan’s conditions and the signed documents are on their way to Istanbul and that the squadron of 5 ships of the line and 6 frigates just sailed from Abikir to Alexandria to prevent possible misunderstandings and rush actions. But perhaps Sir Charles and his captains will join the banquet arranged to celebrate the long awaited end of the hostilities?
The Porte, the British Ambassador at Constantinople, Sir Robert Stopford, and Sir Charles Smith, all disapproved strongly of Napier's action, and denied his right to take such a course but, with the treaty signed, it did not matter and Palmerston even thanked Napier for his valiant attempt to set issue to the British satisfaction. Bombardment of Acre was acknowledged as a great victory and other not too glorious events had been simply ignored as irrelevant. Napier became KCB. The Admiralty finally acknowledged usefulness of the steamers and even, grudgingly but nonetheless, conceded that a screw is not such a bad thing.
Archduke Frederich for his exceptional leadership during the campaign he was appointed Knight of the Military Order of Maria Theresa. Now he was an undisputed Austrian top authority on the things naval. In 1844 he was promoted to the rank of vice admiral and took office as Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Austrian Navy at the age of twenty-three. As Commander-in-Chief, Friedrich introduced many modernising reforms, aiming to make his country's naval force less "Venetian" but more "Austrian". Friedrich's term as Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Austrian Navy was cut short. He died of jaundice in Venice at the age of twenty-six, only three years after taking office.
In France and Russia there was a deep sight of a relief: the complicated conflict had been resolved as planned without a single French or Russian shot being fired in anger. Promotions and awards had been showered upon the participants. Everybody agreed that this was probably Generalissimo’s most brilliant campaign.
The Sultan was satisfied, at least for the time being and so was Muhammed Ali. Both, again, for the time being, learned who are their …er… “true friends”.
___________
[1] “England, England, when something happens why is it always immediately ‘England’” ‘That famous Munchausen’
[2] “- What if they refuse? - Then open fire!” ‘Royal hunt’
[3] Taking into an account that Bashir's Druze and Christian rivals and dissidents to his rule in Mount Lebanon were courted and armed in an initiative by the British Foreign Secretary, Lord Palmerston and that they launched an armed rebellion against him in May 1840, which he just managed to temporarily suppress by confiscating property from the rebels, issuing threats and offering tax reductions to uninvolved Druze sheikhs in return for their support, this specific step hardly could produce any positive result. In OTL he was also approached by the British consul but remained loyal to MA. Of course, he also expected arrival of the French expeditionary force which did not materialize.
[4] The “Turkish” amounted to the Ottoman 84-gun ship commanded by the Ottoman Rear Admiral, who also happened to be Captain of the R.N. Baldwin Wake Walker, and a cutter, 8, captured from the Egyptians.
[5] Unlike the Egyptian losses, this part is ITTL so no numbers. 😜
Since I don't know a lot about this struggle in the OE, I have to compare it to something I do know of OTL, and this feels a lot like the Balkans. A cesspool of war waiting to happen.
I'll leave this up, but I've done some more research and found it to be all wrong
So apparently the British were against the canal, since they owned all feasible alternatives. That sorta makes sense, and then it also makes more sense that France & Austria would push for it. In fact, ITIL I can see Russia also getting involved, or at least more involved which is admittingly a low bar to clear. We might get an earlier, wider channel done by about a decade or more. Nice, it wouldn't be a good AH timeline without that wouldn't it 😉
I'll leave this up, but I've done some more research and found it to be all wrong
So apparently the British were against the canal, since they owned all feasible alternatives. That sorta makes sense, and then it also makes more sense that France & Austria would push for it. In fact, ITIL I can see Russia also getting involved, or at least more involved which is admittingly a low bar to clear. We might get an earlier, wider channel done by about a decade or more. Nice, it wouldn't be a good AH timeline without that wouldn't it 😉
Generally like with the Balkans granting autonomy won't really solve the problem, it will just be a prelude to the independence, but in this case goal of European powers, or Russian for that matter wasn't strong Ottoman empire, but one weakened and suspectable to the European influence .
Though i must admit that i hoped that Ottomans that were exposed to European influence much earlier and that have started their reforms earlier could have averted their fate and defeated Ali and continued their alliance with Russia without other European powers butting in.
In this TL British aren't controlling the Cape of Good Hope, so that stance should generally change, especially if we take into account that they hold Gibraltar and strategic islands in Med . They should generally be for the channel as long as it's open to everyone and under their influence (i expect British capital to be involved) as in ITTL this would bypass Batavian/ French influenced Cape of good hope while also giving significance to the route's they control. This should also give Ali and Egypt wind in the back when it comes to French influence as he should have British counterbalance.
Peaceful times
219. Peaceful times
The Ottoman Empire.
The peace achieved with the Russian and French help was not as bad as it could be but not as good as was hoped initially [1]. Still, the Sultan got back some of the territories lost be his father, a considerable annual tribute from Egypt and could continue the military reforms started by his father.
After Mahmud II’s death, the Tanzimat Decree promised a fair, codified system of military recruitment that also stressed the necessity and therefore obligatory nature of military service for the imperial forces for “four or five years.” What was promulgated in the decree soon culminated in the military reforms of 1843, the detailed yet provisional conscription code of 1844 and finally, a comprehensive conscription code of 1846. The first article of the 1846 conscription code in fact recounted what Mahmudian-era political-military treatises had already laid down: any Muslim selected as a conscript was bound to serve, a duty sanctioned by “customary and Islamic law” in order to “defend the honour of the religion and state, and to keep the order in the realm and protect the country.” The reforms set the active army’s strength at 150,000, and every year, 30,000 new recruits were to replace the discharged.
In 1843, five regional standing armies with their specific recruitment districts and supporting Redif organizations were established as armies in Rumelia, Istanbul (Dersaadet), Anatolia, Arabia (mainly in Northern Syria) and the Guards. In 1848, another army was founded in Iraq, signifying the stretching arm of the central authority. According to the 1829–32 censuses, this figure represented more than one-tenth of all Muslim males registered and one-fourth of all men considered eligible for military service by the Ottoman authorities.
Of course, things were not all rosy, especially when it was coming to getting the conscripts from the generally rebellious areas of Bosnia, Albania (in 1842-45 more than 20,000 Albanians had been forcibly conscripted causing a new discontent in the region) and Kurdistan, so the regular forces had been accompanying the recruiters and census takers to assure success of their activities. However, the bulk of the conscripts were the Turks because the small family farms dominated the rural landscape of Central and Western Anatolia and it was much easier for the recruiting parties to get people there comparing to the more mobile and often more aggressive nomadic or settled warrior communities who lived in distant and rugged Albanian, Bosnian, and Kurdish territories. Well, and of course the pervious experiences with the unreliable irregulars of other ethnic origins also was a consideration. For example, prior to the battle of Nizab the hastily inducted and maltreated Kurdish conscripts could not understand their officers’ language.
Another reality of the era was the continual appearance of underage boys and sick men in army ranks (among other reasons for this happening wax the fact that the Ottoman state could not provide adequate bureaucratic and medical support for the necessary physical examinations). The inadequate medical services also resulted in a yearly rate of the disease-related deaths much higher than in the European armies: 90-100 per thousand (vs. 10-20).
And, of course, the new “European” army needed the European weapons, which the OE simply could not produce because its fledgling manufacturing (including one of the Principalities and Serbia) was oriented toward the textiles, processing of the agricultural products and other types of the light industry. Rejection of the earlier British “free trade” treaty saved these industries from getting extinct but this was pretty much it. The Empire was lacking the modern metallurgy, not to mention the engine-building capacities and other advanced technologies. So the weapons had to be purchased somewhere and this required considerable sums of money.
Up to 40% of the state revenues had been coming from the agricultural exports and most of the increases in production came from vast areas of land coming under further cultivation in the previously empty central Anatolia and the Ottoman-held part of Syria. Of course, in the area of agricultural exports the empire had a very strong competitor on its northern border but so far the European markets were big enough for everyone and decreasing volume of the Russian grain imports meant more free funds. However, the balance of imports/exports started moving not in the Ottoman favor because the traditional business of the re-exporting luxury goods from the Far East had been steadily shrinking.
So, as far as the weapons and machinery were involved, there was a serious need to look both at the quality and price tag. Well, and of course, to the geopolitical considerations. France was pro-Egyptian and, even with the peace established, not to be considered a welcomed partner. Which was leaving Russia, Britain and Prussia out of which the British military goods tended to be the most expensive ones. So, at least for a while the OE was mostly oriented toward buying the Russian and Prussian weaponry. The warships, OTOH, had been bought mostly in Britain and Russia: Britain, now being extremely busy modernizing the RN, could spare mostly the old sail ships (disadvantages of which had been recently convincingly demonstrated) and the paddlers. The Russians also had been quite accommodating with these items, and the first order were 4 the Mecdiye class of 30 guns paddle frigates [2].
Still, there was a need of getting more money. As the 19th century increased the state's financial needs, it knew it could not raise the revenues from taxation or domestic borrowings, so resorted to massive debasement and then issued paper money. This did not help with the purchases abroad and the OE had to start doing something it was so far avoiding, taking the foreign loans.
Egypt.
During the last war the Egyptian army performed reasonably well even if the British bombardment of St. Jean d’Acre demonstrated serious deficiencies of its artillery. However, the war revealed some very serious problems as well. The dispirited Egyptian soldiers and officers, who had not been adequately fed and paid, deserted or defected to the Ottoman side in large numbers. In one incident, even a whole battalion of 800 officers and men deserted to Hafız Pasha’s army a few days before the battle anthere were also about 2,000 Egyptians on the field with Hafız Pasha’s force. Even immediately after the victory, Ibrahim Pasha’s triumphant soldiers continued to run away. Egyptian cuirassiers accompanied deserting Ottoman timariot cavalry, two battalions of Egyptians defected to the Ottoman side even during a day of victory. On the same day of Nizib, Egyptians deserters swam across Euphrates and surrendered 3,000 muskets to the Ottoman camp at Birecik. Ibrahim Pasha reportedly ordered opening fire on his own men, who were retreating. After the hostilities started in September 1840, some 16,000 Egyptian troops deserted to or were captured by the Ottomans, 25,000 ran back to their homes and only 4,000 were killed or died in the field until the evacuation of Greater Syria. In other words, Ibrahim Pasha lost more than half of his army’s effective strength (75,000) to desertion and defection. So the lessons learned were to avoid the new big war and to keep improving the army.
After a prolonged bargain, Mehmed Ali’s yearly tribute was fixed at 30 million kuruş, out of the estimated state income of approximately 300 million kuruş in 1841-42. The expenditures of Egyptian army and navy was 90 million kuruş in 1838.
While there were some mutual agreements regarding the limitations on a size of the Egyptian army, in practice, by shifting regiments between Upper and Lower Egypt, obscuring numbers of the Sudan garrison, and judicious bribery, a gradual build-up increased military strength of Egypt, which the Turkish authorities underestimated by almost 50 per cent. Thus, Turkish officials were unaware Egypt could field over 100,000 soldiers in 1853. MA and succeeding governors of Egypt also turned to domestic issues and directed their expansion policies towards Sudan, the Horn of Africa and Yemen.
Egyptian navy also had to move to the age of steam purchasing ships mostly from France.
As a result, after a decade of bitter hostilities and costly wars in 1831-41, a curious yet understudied cooperation between Istanbul and quisi-independent Cairo was in effect.
On a domestic front MA continued program of state-sponsored industrialization, which included setting up factories for weapons production, an iron foundry, large-scale cotton cultivation, mills for ginning, spinning and weaving of cotton, and enterprises for agricultural processing. Egypt had over 30 cotton mills, employing about 30,000 workers. Egypt had the world's fifth most productive cotton industry, in terms of the number of spindles per capita. The initial problem for the future growth was an absence of the domestic coal sources in Egypt which was creating problems with more extensive introduction of the steam engines. After the territorial issues with the OE had been settled, theprospectors searched for coal deposits on all territories controlled by MA they were found in Lebanon, which had a yearly coal output of 4,000 tons. Coal was also imported from overseas, at the prices comparable to the typical European imports. The boilers, imported and domestically produced, were installed in Egyptian industries such as ironworks, textile manufacturing, paper mills and hulling mills. The main source of expertise, imports and Finances was France with Russia being the remote but not insignificant second. After the openly hostile attitudes demonstrated during the last war, the British activities on MA’s territories were limited to the trade in the port cities.
Far away. China
On the opposite side of the globe Britain (and EIC) was spectacularly successful winning the Opium War against the Qing China. The modern weapons and discipline once more proved to provide an overwhelming advantage over what was passing for the Qing army, which the regime did not bother to modernize since the beatings it received century ago. The glory was definitely there making the nation proud.
Of course, one may ask a naive question how forcing an independent country to buy opium can be considered a triumph of a liberalism and other values preached Lord Palmerston but the great man was, once more, up to the task (😂):
“f this opium had been seized in the ordinary course of Chinese authority, as being a contraband article, brought into China against the law—if it had been seized by the Chinese authorities within Chinese jurisdiction, there would have been no claim on the finance or upon the power of this Government to demand compensation or redress from the Government of China. It was entirely owing to the manner in which the opium had been extorted, that the late Government had felt that an outrage upon British subjects had been committed, which not only authorised but rendered necessary measures of hostility, should such be required. It had been said that what the late Government demanded was satisfaction for the injured honour of the country, and that one of the ways in which satisfaction was to be given was payment for the opium so extorted…. In addition to the demand for compensation to the holders of opium, the Government added another for payment of the debts of the insolvent Hong merchants, and also a third for the pay uncut of the expenses of the war. The last demand was certainly unusual in European warfare, but it was not unusual in Asiatic warfare; and under all circumstances, in order to make the Chinese sensible of the extent of the outrage they had committed, and that they might sufficiently feel the exercise of the power of Britain in vindication of their honour, it was thought expedient and proper to make them pay the expense of the war, in addition to compensating the injured parties.” [3]
So the issue was explained to everybody’s satisfaction, at least as far as the ‘civilized world’ was concerned: by that time everybody dealing with China had a reason to be pissed off with the policies of its government.
The Treaty of Nanking had been signed and not only Britain but other “civilized” countries as well hoped to exploit the opportunities of a seemingly huge Chinese market. How could it be otherwise? Under Article V, the treaty abolished the former monopoly of the Cohong and their Thirteen Factories in Canton. Four additional "treaty ports" opened for foreign trade alongside Canton: Amoy, Foochowfoo, Ningpo and Shanghai where foreign merchants were to be allowed to trade with anyone they wished. Britain also gained the right to send consuls to the treaty ports, which were given the right to communicate directly with local Chinese officials (Article II). The treaty stipulated that trade in the treaty ports should be subject to fixed tariffs, which were to be agreed upon between the British and the Qing governments (Article X). And Britain got Hong Kong.
By the time the treaty was signed, British firms were ready to exploit the new opportunities offered by this system of “limited free trade”. The feeling was shared by other European countries who, by that treaty, also got an opening. Russia was not an exception but, due to the most extensive experience, its government and merchant class were probably the least enthusiastic and not without a good reason because very soon, the more extravagant hopes were soon dashed.
While the illegal opium trade cominued to grow, Western legal trade, especially that in British cotton goods, came up against Chinese resistance in various forms: simple lack of demand for Western commodities [4], the resilience of the Chinese trading networks, high taxation of imported goods outside the treaty ports, and a general defensive reaction which the British were quick to denounce as Chinese 'xenophobia'. As a result, the opium smuggled from India still remained the biggest item of the British import with tea and silk contrihllting the hulk of China's exports, and export of the British cotton, while growing over the years, never grew over 8% of the British cotton industry while India amounted to 27%.
As a part of the program of ‘self-strengthening’ the Chinese officials welcomed import of the machinery and raw materials and were ready to pay well for the services of the Western experts - some of them of dubious qualifications. Eventually, cooperation at various levels with Chinese merchants had been practiced and routinized to the extent of the emergence of a kind of symhiotic Sino-foreign commercial capitalism in the open areas but the domestic markets of most of the country remained practically untouched. Shanghai became the biggest of the treaty ports with a big international settlement, predominantly British and American.
By the obvious reasons of geography Shanghai was the main port of the Russian interest, being within an easy route from its main Pacific Coast portNicholaevsk-on-Amur (Vladivostok was still predominantly a naval base) and having a relatively easy connection with the growing Baikal and Trans Baikal industrial region [5] (of course, this connection was not really easy - the land road from the Baikal to the Amur (or rather Shilka) was not perfect, to put it mildly, but bringing the manufactured (metal) goods from there was much cheaper than to carry them by ship across half of the world.
Of course, this did not apply to the textiles which had to be sent by the ship and as a result ended up being on a costly side. In general, trade with China generated a limited interest in the European Russia [6]. Except of being a source of the tea, China remained rather “regional” interest in the terms of providing a market for the goods produced around the Baikal and as such helping to develop and populate the Russian Far East.
However, there was one potentially promising opening. After debacle of the Opium War the Chinese government more or less recognized a need in the modern weaponry are perhaps some military reforms, while still not planning elimination of the banner armies. For this they need specialists, and a lot of weapons. Taking into an account that all these activities were bureaucracy-driven, the process promised to be protracted and resource-consuming and Russian government was going to participate as actively as possible. The official letter sent to the Emperor of China was quite straightforward:
“The Chinese government should see from the … hostility with Europeans that its army with the weapons currently used is unable to resist the military forces of the Western powers and that it needs to change its entire military structure if it does not want China to fall under the complete influence of foreigners. Russia is ready to help China acquire various military materials it needs, and if the Beijing Cabinet understood the importance of this proposal, our government could do it a great favor by sending several well-knowing military officers who would teach the Chinese all new improvements in military affairs and thus protect China from continuous new attacks by foreign nations.”
Of course, the Chinese government was cautious about the Russians no less than of the Brits but the options were rather limited and a purchase of the modern weapons was agreed upon. Of course, “modern” were the weapons in a process of being replaced by the newer systems but comparing to the matchlocks and bows of the Qing army they were definitely a progress. However, an idea of getting the foreign instructors was rejected: instead few Chinese had been sent to Russia, Britain and Prussia.
_________
[1] Upon his accession Sultan Abdul was agreeing to make MA and his successors the hereditary governors of Egypt but strictly Egypt. All other territories had to be returned, the Ottoman fleet had to be delivered back, Egypt’s army had to be limited to 18,000 and Egypt’s annual tribute would amount to a quarter of the country’s income (aka 75 million kuruş).
[2] In OTL built in the Ottoman Empire in 1846 - 48.
[3] Speech in the House of Commons (4 August 1843)
[4] These barbarians were not buying the forks and many other “civilized” items.
[5] The region does have big deposits of silver, coal, copper and iron and, notwithstanding rather harsh climate and geographic conditions, it has some mining a metallurgy.
[6] In OTL this was the case even in the late XIX - early XX. The most important Russian exports were kerosine and vodka, both facing rather strong competition. For example, the Russian merchants trading in textile simply did not want to adjust to the specifics of Chinese market and, even after construction of TransSib, the tariffs had been making the goods quite expensive and the Russian Far East region was under-populated and under-developed so, with the exception of Smirnoff vodka distilleries of which had been created along the TransSib route following the construction, most of the item had to be transported across the whole Russia or carried by the ship across half of the world with, at least Dobroflot, also not being too enthusiastic. With all due respect to Witte (who, BTW was a proponent of the naval development but not of the merchant fleet) most of his Far East plans proved to be “a bureaucrat’s dream” marginally connected to the reality.
“In fact, we have only two options for economic reforms. The first is realistic: aliens arrive and do everything they need for us. The second one is fantastic: we do everything ourselves.”
“Reform is something uncertain that needs to be done, no one knows how, it is not known when, and which no one knows how it will end.”
T.M. Reed
“We wanted the best, but it turned out as always.”
Chernomyrdin
“The best ruler is the one who does not issue decrees. Everyone loves him because he doesn't bother anyone.”
Alexander III
“Reform is something uncertain that needs to be done, no one knows how, it is not known when, and which no one knows how it will end.”
T.M. Reed
“We wanted the best, but it turned out as always.”
Chernomyrdin
“The best ruler is the one who does not issue decrees. Everyone loves him because he doesn't bother anyone.”
Alexander III
The Ottoman Empire.
The peace achieved with the Russian and French help was not as bad as it could be but not as good as was hoped initially [1]. Still, the Sultan got back some of the territories lost be his father, a considerable annual tribute from Egypt and could continue the military reforms started by his father.
After Mahmud II’s death, the Tanzimat Decree promised a fair, codified system of military recruitment that also stressed the necessity and therefore obligatory nature of military service for the imperial forces for “four or five years.” What was promulgated in the decree soon culminated in the military reforms of 1843, the detailed yet provisional conscription code of 1844 and finally, a comprehensive conscription code of 1846. The first article of the 1846 conscription code in fact recounted what Mahmudian-era political-military treatises had already laid down: any Muslim selected as a conscript was bound to serve, a duty sanctioned by “customary and Islamic law” in order to “defend the honour of the religion and state, and to keep the order in the realm and protect the country.” The reforms set the active army’s strength at 150,000, and every year, 30,000 new recruits were to replace the discharged.
In 1843, five regional standing armies with their specific recruitment districts and supporting Redif organizations were established as armies in Rumelia, Istanbul (Dersaadet), Anatolia, Arabia (mainly in Northern Syria) and the Guards. In 1848, another army was founded in Iraq, signifying the stretching arm of the central authority. According to the 1829–32 censuses, this figure represented more than one-tenth of all Muslim males registered and one-fourth of all men considered eligible for military service by the Ottoman authorities.
Of course, things were not all rosy, especially when it was coming to getting the conscripts from the generally rebellious areas of Bosnia, Albania (in 1842-45 more than 20,000 Albanians had been forcibly conscripted causing a new discontent in the region) and Kurdistan, so the regular forces had been accompanying the recruiters and census takers to assure success of their activities. However, the bulk of the conscripts were the Turks because the small family farms dominated the rural landscape of Central and Western Anatolia and it was much easier for the recruiting parties to get people there comparing to the more mobile and often more aggressive nomadic or settled warrior communities who lived in distant and rugged Albanian, Bosnian, and Kurdish territories. Well, and of course the pervious experiences with the unreliable irregulars of other ethnic origins also was a consideration. For example, prior to the battle of Nizab the hastily inducted and maltreated Kurdish conscripts could not understand their officers’ language.
Another reality of the era was the continual appearance of underage boys and sick men in army ranks (among other reasons for this happening wax the fact that the Ottoman state could not provide adequate bureaucratic and medical support for the necessary physical examinations). The inadequate medical services also resulted in a yearly rate of the disease-related deaths much higher than in the European armies: 90-100 per thousand (vs. 10-20).
And, of course, the new “European” army needed the European weapons, which the OE simply could not produce because its fledgling manufacturing (including one of the Principalities and Serbia) was oriented toward the textiles, processing of the agricultural products and other types of the light industry. Rejection of the earlier British “free trade” treaty saved these industries from getting extinct but this was pretty much it. The Empire was lacking the modern metallurgy, not to mention the engine-building capacities and other advanced technologies. So the weapons had to be purchased somewhere and this required considerable sums of money.
Up to 40% of the state revenues had been coming from the agricultural exports and most of the increases in production came from vast areas of land coming under further cultivation in the previously empty central Anatolia and the Ottoman-held part of Syria. Of course, in the area of agricultural exports the empire had a very strong competitor on its northern border but so far the European markets were big enough for everyone and decreasing volume of the Russian grain imports meant more free funds. However, the balance of imports/exports started moving not in the Ottoman favor because the traditional business of the re-exporting luxury goods from the Far East had been steadily shrinking.
So, as far as the weapons and machinery were involved, there was a serious need to look both at the quality and price tag. Well, and of course, to the geopolitical considerations. France was pro-Egyptian and, even with the peace established, not to be considered a welcomed partner. Which was leaving Russia, Britain and Prussia out of which the British military goods tended to be the most expensive ones. So, at least for a while the OE was mostly oriented toward buying the Russian and Prussian weaponry. The warships, OTOH, had been bought mostly in Britain and Russia: Britain, now being extremely busy modernizing the RN, could spare mostly the old sail ships (disadvantages of which had been recently convincingly demonstrated) and the paddlers. The Russians also had been quite accommodating with these items, and the first order were 4 the Mecdiye class of 30 guns paddle frigates [2].
Still, there was a need of getting more money. As the 19th century increased the state's financial needs, it knew it could not raise the revenues from taxation or domestic borrowings, so resorted to massive debasement and then issued paper money. This did not help with the purchases abroad and the OE had to start doing something it was so far avoiding, taking the foreign loans.
Egypt.
During the last war the Egyptian army performed reasonably well even if the British bombardment of St. Jean d’Acre demonstrated serious deficiencies of its artillery. However, the war revealed some very serious problems as well. The dispirited Egyptian soldiers and officers, who had not been adequately fed and paid, deserted or defected to the Ottoman side in large numbers. In one incident, even a whole battalion of 800 officers and men deserted to Hafız Pasha’s army a few days before the battle anthere were also about 2,000 Egyptians on the field with Hafız Pasha’s force. Even immediately after the victory, Ibrahim Pasha’s triumphant soldiers continued to run away. Egyptian cuirassiers accompanied deserting Ottoman timariot cavalry, two battalions of Egyptians defected to the Ottoman side even during a day of victory. On the same day of Nizib, Egyptians deserters swam across Euphrates and surrendered 3,000 muskets to the Ottoman camp at Birecik. Ibrahim Pasha reportedly ordered opening fire on his own men, who were retreating. After the hostilities started in September 1840, some 16,000 Egyptian troops deserted to or were captured by the Ottomans, 25,000 ran back to their homes and only 4,000 were killed or died in the field until the evacuation of Greater Syria. In other words, Ibrahim Pasha lost more than half of his army’s effective strength (75,000) to desertion and defection. So the lessons learned were to avoid the new big war and to keep improving the army.
After a prolonged bargain, Mehmed Ali’s yearly tribute was fixed at 30 million kuruş, out of the estimated state income of approximately 300 million kuruş in 1841-42. The expenditures of Egyptian army and navy was 90 million kuruş in 1838.
While there were some mutual agreements regarding the limitations on a size of the Egyptian army, in practice, by shifting regiments between Upper and Lower Egypt, obscuring numbers of the Sudan garrison, and judicious bribery, a gradual build-up increased military strength of Egypt, which the Turkish authorities underestimated by almost 50 per cent. Thus, Turkish officials were unaware Egypt could field over 100,000 soldiers in 1853. MA and succeeding governors of Egypt also turned to domestic issues and directed their expansion policies towards Sudan, the Horn of Africa and Yemen.
Egyptian navy also had to move to the age of steam purchasing ships mostly from France.
As a result, after a decade of bitter hostilities and costly wars in 1831-41, a curious yet understudied cooperation between Istanbul and quisi-independent Cairo was in effect.
On a domestic front MA continued program of state-sponsored industrialization, which included setting up factories for weapons production, an iron foundry, large-scale cotton cultivation, mills for ginning, spinning and weaving of cotton, and enterprises for agricultural processing. Egypt had over 30 cotton mills, employing about 30,000 workers. Egypt had the world's fifth most productive cotton industry, in terms of the number of spindles per capita. The initial problem for the future growth was an absence of the domestic coal sources in Egypt which was creating problems with more extensive introduction of the steam engines. After the territorial issues with the OE had been settled, theprospectors searched for coal deposits on all territories controlled by MA they were found in Lebanon, which had a yearly coal output of 4,000 tons. Coal was also imported from overseas, at the prices comparable to the typical European imports. The boilers, imported and domestically produced, were installed in Egyptian industries such as ironworks, textile manufacturing, paper mills and hulling mills. The main source of expertise, imports and Finances was France with Russia being the remote but not insignificant second. After the openly hostile attitudes demonstrated during the last war, the British activities on MA’s territories were limited to the trade in the port cities.
Far away. China
On the opposite side of the globe Britain (and EIC) was spectacularly successful winning the Opium War against the Qing China. The modern weapons and discipline once more proved to provide an overwhelming advantage over what was passing for the Qing army, which the regime did not bother to modernize since the beatings it received century ago. The glory was definitely there making the nation proud.
Of course, one may ask a naive question how forcing an independent country to buy opium can be considered a triumph of a liberalism and other values preached Lord Palmerston but the great man was, once more, up to the task (😂):
“f this opium had been seized in the ordinary course of Chinese authority, as being a contraband article, brought into China against the law—if it had been seized by the Chinese authorities within Chinese jurisdiction, there would have been no claim on the finance or upon the power of this Government to demand compensation or redress from the Government of China. It was entirely owing to the manner in which the opium had been extorted, that the late Government had felt that an outrage upon British subjects had been committed, which not only authorised but rendered necessary measures of hostility, should such be required. It had been said that what the late Government demanded was satisfaction for the injured honour of the country, and that one of the ways in which satisfaction was to be given was payment for the opium so extorted…. In addition to the demand for compensation to the holders of opium, the Government added another for payment of the debts of the insolvent Hong merchants, and also a third for the pay uncut of the expenses of the war. The last demand was certainly unusual in European warfare, but it was not unusual in Asiatic warfare; and under all circumstances, in order to make the Chinese sensible of the extent of the outrage they had committed, and that they might sufficiently feel the exercise of the power of Britain in vindication of their honour, it was thought expedient and proper to make them pay the expense of the war, in addition to compensating the injured parties.” [3]
So the issue was explained to everybody’s satisfaction, at least as far as the ‘civilized world’ was concerned: by that time everybody dealing with China had a reason to be pissed off with the policies of its government.
The Treaty of Nanking had been signed and not only Britain but other “civilized” countries as well hoped to exploit the opportunities of a seemingly huge Chinese market. How could it be otherwise? Under Article V, the treaty abolished the former monopoly of the Cohong and their Thirteen Factories in Canton. Four additional "treaty ports" opened for foreign trade alongside Canton: Amoy, Foochowfoo, Ningpo and Shanghai where foreign merchants were to be allowed to trade with anyone they wished. Britain also gained the right to send consuls to the treaty ports, which were given the right to communicate directly with local Chinese officials (Article II). The treaty stipulated that trade in the treaty ports should be subject to fixed tariffs, which were to be agreed upon between the British and the Qing governments (Article X). And Britain got Hong Kong.
By the time the treaty was signed, British firms were ready to exploit the new opportunities offered by this system of “limited free trade”. The feeling was shared by other European countries who, by that treaty, also got an opening. Russia was not an exception but, due to the most extensive experience, its government and merchant class were probably the least enthusiastic and not without a good reason because very soon, the more extravagant hopes were soon dashed.
While the illegal opium trade cominued to grow, Western legal trade, especially that in British cotton goods, came up against Chinese resistance in various forms: simple lack of demand for Western commodities [4], the resilience of the Chinese trading networks, high taxation of imported goods outside the treaty ports, and a general defensive reaction which the British were quick to denounce as Chinese 'xenophobia'. As a result, the opium smuggled from India still remained the biggest item of the British import with tea and silk contrihllting the hulk of China's exports, and export of the British cotton, while growing over the years, never grew over 8% of the British cotton industry while India amounted to 27%.
As a part of the program of ‘self-strengthening’ the Chinese officials welcomed import of the machinery and raw materials and were ready to pay well for the services of the Western experts - some of them of dubious qualifications. Eventually, cooperation at various levels with Chinese merchants had been practiced and routinized to the extent of the emergence of a kind of symhiotic Sino-foreign commercial capitalism in the open areas but the domestic markets of most of the country remained practically untouched. Shanghai became the biggest of the treaty ports with a big international settlement, predominantly British and American.
By the obvious reasons of geography Shanghai was the main port of the Russian interest, being within an easy route from its main Pacific Coast portNicholaevsk-on-Amur (Vladivostok was still predominantly a naval base) and having a relatively easy connection with the growing Baikal and Trans Baikal industrial region [5] (of course, this connection was not really easy - the land road from the Baikal to the Amur (or rather Shilka) was not perfect, to put it mildly, but bringing the manufactured (metal) goods from there was much cheaper than to carry them by ship across half of the world.
Of course, this did not apply to the textiles which had to be sent by the ship and as a result ended up being on a costly side. In general, trade with China generated a limited interest in the European Russia [6]. Except of being a source of the tea, China remained rather “regional” interest in the terms of providing a market for the goods produced around the Baikal and as such helping to develop and populate the Russian Far East.
However, there was one potentially promising opening. After debacle of the Opium War the Chinese government more or less recognized a need in the modern weaponry are perhaps some military reforms, while still not planning elimination of the banner armies. For this they need specialists, and a lot of weapons. Taking into an account that all these activities were bureaucracy-driven, the process promised to be protracted and resource-consuming and Russian government was going to participate as actively as possible. The official letter sent to the Emperor of China was quite straightforward:
“The Chinese government should see from the … hostility with Europeans that its army with the weapons currently used is unable to resist the military forces of the Western powers and that it needs to change its entire military structure if it does not want China to fall under the complete influence of foreigners. Russia is ready to help China acquire various military materials it needs, and if the Beijing Cabinet understood the importance of this proposal, our government could do it a great favor by sending several well-knowing military officers who would teach the Chinese all new improvements in military affairs and thus protect China from continuous new attacks by foreign nations.”
Of course, the Chinese government was cautious about the Russians no less than of the Brits but the options were rather limited and a purchase of the modern weapons was agreed upon. Of course, “modern” were the weapons in a process of being replaced by the newer systems but comparing to the matchlocks and bows of the Qing army they were definitely a progress. However, an idea of getting the foreign instructors was rejected: instead few Chinese had been sent to Russia, Britain and Prussia.
_________
[1] Upon his accession Sultan Abdul was agreeing to make MA and his successors the hereditary governors of Egypt but strictly Egypt. All other territories had to be returned, the Ottoman fleet had to be delivered back, Egypt’s army had to be limited to 18,000 and Egypt’s annual tribute would amount to a quarter of the country’s income (aka 75 million kuruş).
[2] In OTL built in the Ottoman Empire in 1846 - 48.
[3] Speech in the House of Commons (4 August 1843)
[4] These barbarians were not buying the forks and many other “civilized” items.
[5] The region does have big deposits of silver, coal, copper and iron and, notwithstanding rather harsh climate and geographic conditions, it has some mining a metallurgy.
[6] In OTL this was the case even in the late XIX - early XX. The most important Russian exports were kerosine and vodka, both facing rather strong competition. For example, the Russian merchants trading in textile simply did not want to adjust to the specifics of Chinese market and, even after construction of TransSib, the tariffs had been making the goods quite expensive and the Russian Far East region was under-populated and under-developed so, with the exception of Smirnoff vodka distilleries of which had been created along the TransSib route following the construction, most of the item had to be transported across the whole Russia or carried by the ship across half of the world with, at least Dobroflot, also not being too enthusiastic. With all due respect to Witte (who, BTW was a proponent of the naval development but not of the merchant fleet) most of his Far East plans proved to be “a bureaucrat’s dream” marginally connected to the reality.
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The OE was too close to “everything” for other European powers to stay away just because it is on the good terms with Russia. And even in the best case of the realistic reforms it will still be reasonably weak and too multi-ethnic for being completely secure.
But does Egypt need such a counterbalance after having exclusively bad experience with the Brits and is it possible at all as something stable? I have serious doubts on that account. Anyway, we already have the British canal in OTL so why not play it differently? 😉
That's true but it also doesn't need British anonymity, plus i don't see the British taking that sitting down so at best they'll try to secure share in the canal and a treaty guaranteeing that no single power cannot own, or close the canal, i see them agreeing it to be something of international Zone , (basically if i can't own it no one can).
Otherwise if that fails they'll definitely do something rash like capturing cape of Good Hope to get alternative route, but ultimately i don't see them doing nothing and sitting down while all the routes to the jewel of their empire are closed off.
Well, to start with, nobody prevents them from going around cape of the Good Hope (as everybody else did in OTL) or using the canal - the whole reason for digging it is international usage (and related revenues) and Britain is obviously going to be one of the major if not the major user. Otherwise, the rules are the same as in OTL with a right to close it in the case of war. Judging by the RJW, any war.
As for the rest, ITTL Britain is not omnipotent and the world is not turning around its wishes. What are they going to do? Start a war in which they’ll have no allies and probably “everybody” turning against them because they are disturbing a shipping? If, as seemingly is consensus, Spain is better off than in OTL, even British access to the Med may become problematic: Gibraltar was OK in the 18th century but could its land defenses stand against artillery of the second part of the 19th?
And what pretext? “Yes, we can use it as everybody else but we want to own it even if it was built on a foreign soil by the foreigners on foreign money”? In OTL it was nice and legal: Khediv was deeply in debt to Britain and had to sell his shares. ITTL, if he is in debt, he is in debt to France. Britain, if involved, is a by far junior financial partner.
No, but I have realized that without Napoleon's invasion of Spain, in reality, they would have been reformed. They had plans to do it but Napoleon screwed up, so that answers the previous question of why the Spanish colonies didn't reveal themselves.
Why? Plenty of issues remaining. It might take a timeskip, but there isn't a balance in various parts of the world that can quickly sour relationships across the world.
I feel like a natural end might be once the current unstable situation with the Ottomans is resolved.
May be best to end things then as the further is time from the Point of divergence you get the harder it is too keep the timeline feeling historical rather than fictional if that makes sense.
There are many unsolved things like Spanish empire, Ottoman empire,etc, but from Russia's standpoint i believe TL reached it's natural conclusion . Industrialization is on schedule with rest of Europe, economy looks good, diplomatically Russia is on good terms with most of European continental powers making it's security and ability to protect it's interests guaranteed, regarding unsolved issues like Spanish empire for example, whatever happens to it has no great effect on Russian situation so that is a part of the world that Russia probably won't be involved as much, regarding Ottomans, Russia can comfortably navigate the situation in it's favor in concert with France, in Qing empire Russia has more than enough influence to secure it's interests.
Basically i would say that this TL has more or less reached it's natural conclusion, or Pat favorable to Russia as no power has no interest, or ability to overthrow other major power and major geopolitical shake ups like unification of Germany, or Italy are unlikely to happen, or to change the situation.
Yeah, I started feeling that internationally I more or less pushed TL into the corner by removing most of the OTL problems. Well, of course, there are some potential areas of international instability which may impact Russia to some degree like the Consulate: two out of three consuls are reaching their realistic life limits and the system of the selection of the substitutes may sooner or later cause problems all the way to a full scale revolution, with a potential domino effect which may or may not impact Russia and its “international security” system, etc. But as long as Russia is something of a “solid black box” this is just a military expedition here or there, diplomatic blackmail, etc. Basically, more of the same stuff as before and I’m getting bored with it. Probably everybody else as well.
To be honest, I’m somewhat tempted to start getting into the Russian social domestic affairs, an area which was so far pretty much glossed over, but I’m not sure if this is a subject of a general interest. If it is, then the challenge is to change the “social” things during the reign of NI without changing his personality beyond recognition. The more I’m reading about him the more I’m tempted but will it be interesting to others?
Honestly seeing the society of a Russia where "things went right" is the main reason I started following this
Dont get me wrong, I think the TL is fine as it is and I dont wanna in any way push you into going further into it
Just saying chapters like the one on russian pottery and the bonaparte shenanigans were some of the highlights for me
Overall I think this is a solid hard AH if I've ever seen one, but if you were to add more stuff on the internal affairs I'd enjoy it very much
Dont get me wrong, I think the TL is fine as it is and I dont wanna in any way push you into going further into it
Just saying chapters like the one on russian pottery and the bonaparte shenanigans were some of the highlights for me
Overall I think this is a solid hard AH if I've ever seen one, but if you were to add more stuff on the internal affairs I'd enjoy it very much