Early Pacific War Impact on Japan, China and East Asia in general

Well guys I know this question has been asked a number of times so we assume the Pacific War broke out early between the United States and Japan we assume for example between or in 1933-1938 and as the title says what is the impact on East Asia specifically Japan China and the United States and also whether the United States will enter the war against Germany or will it be neutral and what is the fate of the Allies in World War II if we assume America will not enter into the war against Germany? War declared neutrality after brutal war in East Asia and the Pacific
 
Within this time-frame, there was one major flashpoint where war with Japan was narrowly averted. This was in December 1937, when Japanese bombers sank the gunboat USS Panay, and damaged two others, HMS Bee and Ladybird near Nanking. For the first time since World War I, the United States and Great Britain began coordinating a joint diplomatic and military response; and Japan, recognizing it could not fight both nations apologized and paid reparations.

The primary reason war was averted was President Franklin D Roosevelt acted decisively to suppress information about the USS Panay attack. Three journalists recorded the attack. Norman Soong of the New York Times shot 75 photographs of the attack; Eric Meyell of Fox Movietone and Norman Alley of Universal shot well over 70 rolls of film of the attack. The evidence was clear, Japanese warplanes dived as close as 100 feet from the clearly marked USS Panay; the attack was deliberate. Roosevelt personally ensured the most damaging evidence was censored.

There were numerous opportunities for this film evidence to come to light prior to Roosevelt obtaining control over it. This would have substantially expanded the sense of American outrage over the attack. Especially damaging would be the exposure of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's explanations of the attack as an accident to be naked lies. Nor were Japanese naval and military officers on the scene disposed to admitting fault, much less making an apology. The Japanese could well have come to the conclusion that any American and British response would be feeble. Such contempt could well feed an Anglo-American belief the Japanese needed to be reined in, with further escalatory steps towards war. Although certainly not a popular war, and isolationism strong in America, it is possible for the US Congress to declare war on principle only. The case for war against Germany in 1917 was considerably weaker.

I am convinced the the Americans would not go it alone, if the British backed out, they would likely fold. But the British had even greater commercial interests in China, and resented the brusque treatment given them by the Japanese. It would have to be a delicate sequence of events, but combinations of American indignation, Japanese contempt and British belief the Japanese were not playing cricket could have fed the tides towards war.
 

iddt3

Donor
I believe there as at least one TL to that effect on this site, quite good, but I don't think it got all that far. The reels getting shown widely was the PoD.
 
Within this time-frame, there was one major flashpoint where war with Japan was narrowly averted. This was in December 1937, when Japanese bombers sank the gunboat USS Panay, and damaged two others, HMS Bee and Ladybird near Nanking. For the first time since World War I, the United States and Great Britain began coordinating a joint diplomatic and military response; and Japan, recognizing it could not fight both nations apologized and paid reparations.

The primary reason war was averted was President Franklin D Roosevelt acted decisively to suppress information about the USS Panay attack. Three journalists recorded the attack. Norman Soong of the New York Times shot 75 photographs of the attack; Eric Meyell of Fox Movietone and Norman Alley of Universal shot well over 70 rolls of film of the attack. The evidence was clear, Japanese warplanes dived as close as 100 feet from the clearly marked USS Panay; the attack was deliberate. Roosevelt personally ensured the most damaging evidence was censored.

There were numerous opportunities for this film evidence to come to light prior to Roosevelt obtaining control over it. This would have substantially expanded the sense of American outrage over the attack. Especially damaging would be the exposure of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's explanations of the attack as an accident to be naked lies. Nor were Japanese naval and military officers on the scene disposed to admitting fault, much less making an apology. The Japanese could well have come to the conclusion that any American and British response would be feeble. Such contempt could well feed an Anglo-American belief the Japanese needed to be reined in, with further escalatory steps towards war. Although certainly not a popular war, and isolationism strong in America, it is possible for the US Congress to declare war on principle only. The case for war against Germany in 1917 was considerably weaker.

I am convinced the the Americans would not go it alone, if the British backed out, they would likely fold. But the British had even greater commercial interests in China, and resented the brusque treatment given them by the Japanese. It would have to be a delicate sequence of events, but combinations of American indignation, Japanese contempt and British belief the Japanese were not playing cricket could have fed the tides towards war.

I have a thread exploring the full range of possible responses to the release of uncensored film footage, from the most hawkish to the most dovish.

In that thread, I also have a poll on what were FDR's personal motives in censoring the film. Some of his potential motives run counter to usual stereotypes or conspiracy theories about the policy ends he was aiming toward from the late 30s. You are welcome to weigh in on the poll & thread.
 
Within this time-frame, there was one major flashpoint where war with Japan was narrowly averted. This was in December 1937, when Japanese bombers sank the gunboat USS Panay, and damaged two others, HMS Bee and Ladybird near Nanking. For the first time since World War I, the United States and Great Britain began coordinating a joint diplomatic and military response; and Japan, recognizing it could not fight both nations apologized and paid reparations.

The primary reason war was averted was President Franklin D Roosevelt acted decisively to suppress information about the USS Panay attack. Three journalists recorded the attack. Norman Soong of the New York Times shot 75 photographs of the attack; Eric Meyell of Fox Movietone and Norman Alley of Universal shot well over 70 rolls of film of the attack. The evidence was clear, Japanese warplanes dived as close as 100 feet from the clearly marked USS Panay; the attack was deliberate. Roosevelt personally ensured the most damaging evidence was censored.

There were numerous opportunities for this film evidence to come to light prior to Roosevelt obtaining control over it. This would have substantially expanded the sense of American outrage over the attack. Especially damaging would be the exposure of the Japanese Foreign Ministry's explanations of the attack as an accident to be naked lies. Nor were Japanese naval and military officers on the scene disposed to admitting fault, much less making an apology. The Japanese could well have come to the conclusion that any American and British response would be feeble. Such contempt could well feed an Anglo-American belief the Japanese needed to be reined in, with further escalatory steps towards war. Although certainly not a popular war, and isolationism strong in America, it is possible for the US Congress to declare war on principle only. The case for war against Germany in 1917 was considerably weaker.

I am convinced the the Americans would not go it alone, if the British backed out, they would likely fold. But the British had even greater commercial interests in China, and resented the brusque treatment given them by the Japanese. It would have to be a delicate sequence of events, but combinations of American indignation, Japanese contempt and British belief the Japanese were not playing cricket could have fed the tides towards war.

If this means an early American/Anglo-Japanese war that ends with the early collapse of the Japanese Empire we may even see British Empire more prepared in World War II
 
I have a thread exploring the full range of possible responses to the release of uncensored film footage, from the most hawkish to the most dovish
I think kind of early war

In that thread, I also have a poll on what were FDR's personal motives in censoring the film. Some of his potential motives run counter to usual stereotypes or conspiracy theories about the policy ends he was aiming toward from the late 30s. You are welcome to weigh in on the poll & thread.
FDR's may not want a war with Japan and prefers that America remain isolated from the world
 
I have a thread exploring the full range of possible responses to the release of uncensored film footage, from the most hawkish to the most dovish.

In that thread, I also have a poll on what were FDR's personal motives in censoring the film. Some of his potential motives run counter to usual stereotypes or conspiracy theories about the policy ends he was aiming toward from the late 30s. You are welcome to weigh in on the poll & thread.
I tend to agree with both you and Iddt3 that my comment is more appropriately tied to https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/panoply-of-panay-possibilities.531170/#post-23388222.

I just pooched a more thorough examination of what was out there. Verzeiung bitte.
 
Well guys I know this question has been asked a number of times so we assume the Pacific War broke out early between the United States and Japan we assume for example between or in 1933-1938 and as the title says what is the impact on East Asia specifically Japan China and the United States and also whether the United States will enter the war against Germany or will it be neutral and what is the fate of the Allies in World War II if we assume America will not enter into the war against Germany? War declared neutrality after brutal war in East Asia and the Pacific
The Chinese Nationalists would probably win the civil war. So no Great Leap Forward, no cultural revolution.
 
The Japanese could well have come to the conclusion that any American and British response would be feeble. Such contempt could well feed an Anglo-American belief the Japanese needed to be reined in, with further escalatory steps towards war. Although certainly not a popular war, and isolationism strong in America, it is possible for the US Congress to declare war on principle only. The case for war against Germany in 1917 was considerably weaker.

I am convinced the the Americans would not go it alone, if the British backed out, they would likely fold. But the British had even greater commercial interests in China, and resented the brusque treatment given them by the Japanese. It would have to be a delicate sequence of events, but combinations of American indignation, Japanese contempt and British belief the Japanese were not playing cricket could have fed the tides towards war.

Interesting that you make British support (or lack thereof) your focal point for the American decision.

It is not the craziest idea. In a rational calculation , it is a relevant and useful factor in figuring out how likely the war is to be won, and at what cost.

But I'm not sure it really had that kind of effect in US internal politics. Indeed, it seemed like one of the driving forces in US interwar isolationism, more so than generic pacifism or war-aversion, was unilateralism and anti-alliance-ism, much of it specifically tied to Anglophobia. It was kind of interesting that the papers run by the Hearst media empire called the Sino-Japanese War, 'lamentable but not our concern'. Hearst and his media empire two decades earlier loved beating the war drums against Japan, when it happened to be an ally of Britain. Proposed joint action with Britain against Japan over matters in China would have been met by nontrivial Anglophobic sectors of American public opinion with skeptical howls of "there we go again, getting manipulated by perfidious Albion again". You essentially had some rural, ethnic Irish, and ethnic German segments of the population whose attitude was that if Britain or Anglophiles were for something, they should be against it.

But maybe outrage over graphic atrocities agains the Panay could overcome this. How do you see circumstances unfolding in such a way that the British join the Americans in an anti-Japanese pressure campaign, a Britain led by none other than Neville Chamberlain, and that this Anglo-American dynamic overcomes Anglophobic isolationism in America and overcomes it, reinforcing the pressure campaign, while the Japanese get their backs up and don't finesse their way out, such that the whole thing tips over into a real shooting war? A lot needs to go *wrong* in the *right* ways.
 
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