Spain Joins the Axis: What is its fate?
- Thread starter EnglishCanuck
- Start date
AH.com threads on Spain consistently seem to memory hole the Spanish Socialist Workers Party and how dramatically more popular it was than any other group on the Spanish Left, in particular the Communist Party, which was one of the smaller parties in the Popular Front.
A post-Franco Government will likely see a PSOE landslide at the ballot box sooner or later, barring dramatic election rigging or terror on the part of the reconstruction authorities. It will also likely be about as "dangerous" to the solidarity of the Western Bloc as the British Labour Party, German SPD and other sundry Socialist Parties were in NATO's founding member states. It may drag its feet a bit but American soft power will easily bring Spain into the fold, between taking credit for liberating it and the Marshall Plan's cash being dearly needed.
A post-Franco Government will likely see a PSOE landslide at the ballot box sooner or later, barring dramatic election rigging or terror on the part of the reconstruction authorities. It will also likely be about as "dangerous" to the solidarity of the Western Bloc as the British Labour Party, German SPD and other sundry Socialist Parties were in NATO's founding member states. It may drag its feet a bit but American soft power will easily bring Spain into the fold, between taking credit for liberating it and the Marshall Plan's cash being dearly needed.
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Fair enough - I have no great knowledge of interwar Spanish politics and my readings of the conflict is pretty small. I recalled Largo Caballero as being a bit of a bizarre loose cannon who veered into ultra-left rhetoric when it suited him, but Wikipedia is telling me they were largely moderate in power and in exile they were shaped by the experiences in the Civil War as a bitterly anti-communist organization. They seem to fit the bill for a party that was workable within a post-war Spanish and larger Atlanticist framework.
Only you have claimed 4 Divisions
And the plan was to capture only certain locations initially such as La Luz with it harbour and Gando aerodrome
There is little chance of a counter attack - Crete is one thing, the Canaries is quite another
The Atlantic was an allied lake
Again the Allies had planned for this, even the USA who looked on an Axis Spanish with some concern before Dec 41 put plans into place.
Spain is screwed. Or at least Franco is.
Problem is, this puts the kibosh on Torch, which also means Husky and Avalanche aren't happening. Malta probably falls, though Egypt won't.
This leaves the Allies 2 real choices:
1)Invade Spain to open up the Med
2)Focus on Northern France with all possible resources, target date May 1943
Option 1 is a complete waste of time, so inexorably we arrive at a France '43 scenario, and with resources OTL committed to the Med - US 5th Army, British 1st and 8th Armies, plus landing craft and airpower, I think this is VERY plausible, even while retaining sufficient defensive forces in Egypt. Of course, the Pacific will also lose out - though may well gain a few divisions short term, as the US Torch forces really have to do SOMETHING. I'd expect a quicker win in Guadalcanal, for example.
Meanwhile, Spain loses all North African and Atlantic possessions while gaining Gibraltar, but is under a brutal blockade that ends up hurting Germany too.
Problem is, this puts the kibosh on Torch, which also means Husky and Avalanche aren't happening. Malta probably falls, though Egypt won't.
This leaves the Allies 2 real choices:
1)Invade Spain to open up the Med
2)Focus on Northern France with all possible resources, target date May 1943
Option 1 is a complete waste of time, so inexorably we arrive at a France '43 scenario, and with resources OTL committed to the Med - US 5th Army, British 1st and 8th Armies, plus landing craft and airpower, I think this is VERY plausible, even while retaining sufficient defensive forces in Egypt. Of course, the Pacific will also lose out - though may well gain a few divisions short term, as the US Torch forces really have to do SOMETHING. I'd expect a quicker win in Guadalcanal, for example.
Meanwhile, Spain loses all North African and Atlantic possessions while gaining Gibraltar, but is under a brutal blockade that ends up hurting Germany too.
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I misread that at first and now have a variant of Electric Avenue stuck in my head.
-Oh, so we gotta cut back to-
-the nasty Wheraboo-
-and then maybe ban the post-a?-
Spain is more or less a sideshow, but you do have Franco deposed but the Allies restore the monarchy and put in a democracy put work to support moderate and conservative parties and work against socialists and communists.
Not sure if this would happen as I don’t know much about Spanish politics, but I could see them having struggles in the 60s and 70s between fascist leaning groups and communist leaning groups much like in Italy. We might even see a years of lead kind of situation.
Not sure if this would happen as I don’t know much about Spanish politics, but I could see them having struggles in the 60s and 70s between fascist leaning groups and communist leaning groups much like in Italy. We might even see a years of lead kind of situation.
I would too imaginate Spanish politics being quiet turbulent in 1960's and 1970's. There might be lot of political violence and possiibility even assassinations of high-ranked politicians like in Italy.
The Spanish economy collapses because it relies on imports largely from Britain and can’t be made up for by Germany.
I’mjust cami king
plus, I could see even internal wars between the left and right, like Carlists attacking neo-falangists or Basque separatists attacking socialists.
So what do you supposed Franco's last words would be if he were to end up being captured by a bunch of angry communist partisans like Mussolini was?
Coivara
Banned
Couldn't Spanish ports be used instead to launch or support an attack in France through the sea? I'm thinking the Atlantic, the Med would be vulnerable to the Italians and German air bombing.
marathag
Banned
Early invasion plans for France included the west Atlantic coast as possibly LZs.
Shipping from the UK is still easier.
The other thing about Spain, the Railroads are a different gauge from everyone else on the planet, based on Six feet wide, of Castilian measure, or 1672mm
Who would be the new leader? Didn't most of Franco's potential rivals die in "accidents"?
Spain was in no position to do anything to anyone in the aftermath of their Civil War.
Supposing Spain does join the Axis in 1940, Portugal will likely join the Allies. Germany will likely steamroll into Gibraltar and likely help Spain take out mainland Portugal, whose government under Salazar flees for the Azores which become a large Allied naval/aerial base. Spain proceeds to create the Iberian Union proclaiming all current and Portuguese territories and colonies part of its domain. Italy *may* try to claim the Baeleric Islands. Brazil joins the Allies earlier. From Gibralter, Germany closes the Mediterranean, which leads to Malta falling and a much more difficult campaign in North Africa. While the Allies are still likely (but not guaranteed) to win, this may cause the French surface fleet at Toulon to be taken over by Germany and perhaps pushing Darlan into naval action against the UK. Germany fares somewhat better in the Atlantic with submarine bases as far south as Cadiz as well as more protection for Italy et al.
Allied landings in North Africa are delayed by a few months as planners decide to circumvent the fortress at Gibralter entirely at first, then pummelling it by air and sea as an example. Allied Mediterranean operations resume and Italy is invaded a few months later than OTL as Barbarossa happens more or less in line with OTL. Soviet forces advance to the Rhine before a peace is achieved with Austria along with Denmark and most of the Netherlands fully in Soviet hands. Only by the grace of the Almighty do they fail to get to Venice first.
Germany is reunited and becomes a secondary power in the Berlin Pact of later years. Portugal, having suffered at the hands of Franco, is given Galicia while the border south of that is pushed to the Rio Odiel, Rio Oranque, Riviera de la Panera, Riviera de Alcalaboza, Rio Zapaton, Regato Campon, Arroyo de Valdeliso, Rio Salor, Arroyo de Valdefuentes, Riviera de la Mata, and the Tagus River. Spain also loses Catalonia as the monarchy returns. Ironically in later years the addition of the third nation permits a tricameral Iberian Union which proves successful as an economic agreement from the mid-70s onwards with loose political union a generation or so later.
Supposing Spain does join the Axis in 1940, Portugal will likely join the Allies. Germany will likely steamroll into Gibraltar and likely help Spain take out mainland Portugal, whose government under Salazar flees for the Azores which become a large Allied naval/aerial base. Spain proceeds to create the Iberian Union proclaiming all current and Portuguese territories and colonies part of its domain. Italy *may* try to claim the Baeleric Islands. Brazil joins the Allies earlier. From Gibralter, Germany closes the Mediterranean, which leads to Malta falling and a much more difficult campaign in North Africa. While the Allies are still likely (but not guaranteed) to win, this may cause the French surface fleet at Toulon to be taken over by Germany and perhaps pushing Darlan into naval action against the UK. Germany fares somewhat better in the Atlantic with submarine bases as far south as Cadiz as well as more protection for Italy et al.
Allied landings in North Africa are delayed by a few months as planners decide to circumvent the fortress at Gibralter entirely at first, then pummelling it by air and sea as an example. Allied Mediterranean operations resume and Italy is invaded a few months later than OTL as Barbarossa happens more or less in line with OTL. Soviet forces advance to the Rhine before a peace is achieved with Austria along with Denmark and most of the Netherlands fully in Soviet hands. Only by the grace of the Almighty do they fail to get to Venice first.
Germany is reunited and becomes a secondary power in the Berlin Pact of later years. Portugal, having suffered at the hands of Franco, is given Galicia while the border south of that is pushed to the Rio Odiel, Rio Oranque, Riviera de la Panera, Riviera de Alcalaboza, Rio Zapaton, Regato Campon, Arroyo de Valdeliso, Rio Salor, Arroyo de Valdefuentes, Riviera de la Mata, and the Tagus River. Spain also loses Catalonia as the monarchy returns. Ironically in later years the addition of the third nation permits a tricameral Iberian Union which proves successful as an economic agreement from the mid-70s onwards with loose political union a generation or so later.
Why would the Allies invade North Africa in this scenario? What's the end goal here? Remember, there were landings hundreds of miles east of Gibraltor which clearly can't happen in this scenario.
France in May of 1943 is clearly the play. If ANYTHING prior to that, I'd envision a Norwegian campaign, but even that is not preferable. Just go all in on France.
Wouldn't Spain be forced to apologize not only for WW2 and the Spanish Civil War, but also the Spanish Inquisition? And wouldn't the Spanish Inquisition be seen in this scenario as both a bigoted antisemitic action and the logically-linked and done action of an Axis nation?
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