The Fire Never Dies: Labor's Star Ascendant

Out of curiosity, with the Midwest firmly in Red hands do the Whites have enough food-growing capacity to feed themselves?
In 1917, they didn't. They made up for it by buying food abroad (mostly financed by the sale of cotton and tobacco), but rationing was widespread. This year, they will be planting food crops (mostly corn) instead of cash crops. Theoretically, the South should be able to feed itself, but implementing the switchover will not be easy. There is a serious risk of famine.

Naturally, this is exacerbated for the black community.
 
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65. Red Wheat to Britain
…Among the issues that had sparked off the Second American Revolution had been shipments of war materiel to the Entente. Most popular histories emphasize the arms shipments (especially since those shipments ended up arming the Army of Manhattan), but America was also supplying the Entente with vast quantities food and oil. Prior to the declaration of war, the US would have undoubtably been willing to sell to anyone, but the British blockade made trading with the Central Powers impossible. Now, American exports had all but ceased. The only things coming out of America these days were cotton, tobacco, and refugees…

…The end of oil exports was bad enough. The end of food exports was disastrous, particularly for Britain. France was able to feed itself (although some rationing was implemented), but Britain had flirted with starvation in 1917. Reserves, strict rationing, and purchases from South America had avoided actual famine, but the situation was getting worse. Food prices around the world had skyrocketed. The Colonial Office had begun work on a plan to increase food production in West Africa by introducing modern farming practices, but that would take years to come to fruition. Much of the British press became increasingly gloomy…

…While no nation aside from Haiti formally recognized the GDC as a legitimate government, Canada had, by necessity, established informal conduits. This allowed them to keep the border stable, even if cross-border traffic was mostly limited to refugees coming north and socialist firebrands going south to join the Red Army. Thus, it was Canada that received Foreign Commissar Benjamin Hanford’s proposal. The GDC had become aware of the food shortages in Britain. With the Midwest solidly Red, they controlled the bulk of America’s food production, and the Commissariat for Agriculture was showing a surplus. Now, they were interested in selling it to Britain (and other nations). Their prices were high, but it was more than enough to prevent famine…

…Of course, there was one other condition. All aid to the Wilson government would have to cease. This was actually a fairly minor concession, as Britain had done little more than send advisors, but some in David Lloyd George’s government rankled at the notion. Any sort of deal with the GDC ran the risk of legitimizing them in the eyes of the public, nor was there any chance that they could conceal the arrangement. But the alternative – famine in Britain – was far worse. That could lead to a British revolution. With some reluctance, on February 11, Britain accepted the offer. Within a month, ships began sailing from Canada for the British Isles. As they docked, they began unloading their cargoes: sacks of potatoes, cornmeal, and grain… each one proudly bearing a red star, surrounded by the words “PRODUCT OF THE FARMERS OF AMERICA”…

- From The Great War by Indy Neidell
 
Speaking of European Markets, any possible revolutionary ripples to Europe after the civil war?
There will be an impact (especially when we already have the Russian Revolution). However, every single government in Europe has bumped "stop socialist revolutionaries" way up their to-do list. Meanwhile, the socialists themselves are divided between those who want a peaceful resolution of some kind for both America and Russia (while also supporting their respective countries' side of the Great War) and those who think the GDC and the Bolsheviks are the way to go.
 
The Alternate Alternate History threads about "What if [Insert Event that means no GDC food for the Entente here]" Timelines must get all the Fun discussions.
 
66. California's Golden Abbatoir
…Within a few weeks of the opening of hostilities, virtually the whole of the US was under the control of either the Reds or Whites. The one exception was California. Alone of state governors, Hiram Johnson refused to support President Wilson or join the Revolution. He sought instead to make California a neutral zone. After the war, Johnson would claim that his aim was to protect the people of California from the war and position himself as the mediator for a possible negotiated settlement…

…Instead of neutrality, Johnson’s decision threw California into chaos. Those forces loyal to him (known as the Blues) were attacked by both Whites and Reds. Admiral William B. Caperton, Commander-In-Chief, Pacific Fleet, took command of White forces in California, establishing a temporary capital at Los Angeles[1] after brutally suppressing a socialist uprising. San Francisco fell to the Reds, with Berkeley Mayor Jackson S. Wilson[2] taking leadership of the Army of San Francisco…

…The geography of the conflict left all three factions isolated. The Reds were concentrated around San Francisco, with a naval blockade preventing them from linking up with their comrades in Seattle. The Whites in the south found their tentative contact with Utah or the East Coast cut off by Pancho Villa’s invasion of the Southwest. The Blues were effectively landlocked, curtailing Johnson’s hopes of gaining international support. For many Californians, it seemed as if the rest of the world did not exist…

…The focus of the fighting was California’s Central Valley. Unfortunately, this was also California’s agricultural heartland. All three factions seized crops for themselves, knowing that if their troops were not fed, they could not fight. With little access to outside resources, the inevitable result was famine. California would ultimately suffer the highest death toll of any state relative to its population, earning it the nickname of "The Golden Abbatoir"…

…At first, it seemed as if the Blues had the advantage. Most of the California National Guard remained loyal to Johnson and won many initial battles with the Reds, effectively driving them out of the Central Valley. But this exposed them to an attack from the Whites, who had spent the summer advancing northwards. The White forces, many of whom were armed sailors, were the best equipped, especially in artillery. They pushed as far north as Stockton, where they met the Blues on July 24. The Battle of Stockton was a White victory, but they were in turn exposed to Red raiders coming out of the Altamont Pass…

…Rumors of the Naval Mutiny spread throughout late October. However, communication was sufficiently patchy that no mass uprisings or defections were possible. Caperton never complied with the order to expel blacks from the military, and thus the Army of Southern California continued to use black soldiers…

…The Army of San Francisco survived largely by relying on the terrain. They were limited to the area around San Francisco Bay, extending inland to Vallejo, Concord, and Livermore. But with their limited supplies of both food and materiel, they had little hope of gaining more ground. They simply held on as best they could until February 1918, when they finally received good news. Bill Haywood and the Army of the Cascades had entered California…

- From Red Star Rising: A History of the Second American Revolution by Tom Clancy



[1] At this point, Los Angeles (or, more precisely, Long Beach) was the headquarters of the US Pacific Fleet).

[2] IOTL, Wilson served as a one-term mayor of Berkeley from 1911 to 1913. ITTL, he is reelected, remaining in office until 1917.
 
After some more research, I've made a minor retcon: the US Virgin Islands did not join Puerto Rico in revolt and have remained loyal to the White government.
 
Spoiler alert: the Reds will win. But yes. California will take a long time to recover. It's likely that we will see significant demographic changes as well.
Following the Mexican Revolution, and supposing a relatively free border between the two socialist states, I'd assume that California/Arizona/Nevada/New Mexico would likely have an even larger Hispanic population?
 
67. The American Flu
… Like virtually every hospital in America, Saint John Hospital in Leavenworth, Kansas[1] had been at the front lines of the war. Most of the staff had stayed on after the Army of the Plains withdrew. Men (and occasionally women) of the Red Army lay in beds that had not long ago been occupied by their foes. Most would survive, as those who suffered mortal wounds were unlikely to make it to the hospital from the new frontlines in Arkansas and southern Missouri. The death rate from infections had declined since the Reds took over and stabilized the supply situation…

…The first case was registered on March 7, 1918[2]. A private from the Wisconsin Red Guard had had his leg blown off outside Branson, but his prognosis seemed good until he started coughing up blood. He wasn’t the only one. By the end of the day, dozens of men were sick. The infection was not confined to the hospital. Soon, reports came in from the trenches of hundreds of cases. Some of the Red Army commanders suspected that the Whites had unleashed some kind of weapon, but the doctors were skeptical. Not only did they doubt that civilized men were capable of such barbaric tactics (something the Native Americans might dispute), but this was not the plague, or even smallpox. This was influenza, albeit a particularly nasty strain…

…Word of the outbreak soon reached Chicago. Commissar for War William Z. Foster took action, ordering that anyone displaying symptoms be quarantined, along with anyone who had had contact with them. Unfortunately, this particular strain was infectious well before symptoms showed. With the first case in Chicago registered on March 10, it is likely that the disease had reached the city before it had been noticed by the doctors at Saint John. It spread like wildfire across the country…

…On March 12, the GDC held a very tense meeting. On the table were two proposals. First, the establishment of a Commissariat for Health. Foster opposed the measure, wanting to keep control of the nation’s medical infrastructure. But he had no support. The Commissariat for Health was established, with birth control activist Margaret Sanger[3] as Commissar. Of the original Commissars, Sanger would have the longest career, holding her post until 1959[4]

…The second proposal was whether or not to make a public announcement. Again, Foster argued against it, as doing so would show weakness and potentially create a public panic. And again, he was overruled. DeLeon in particular was adamant that the American workers had the right to know. He also pointed out that not doing so would impede the rolling out of public health measures which would protect both the troops and wartime industry…

…The announcement that the Reds were suffering from an epidemic was greeted with glee by the Whites. Wilson opined that this plague was clearly an act of divine punishment. Unfortunately for him, diseases respect no borders or politics. Even before word reached Washington, influenza had crossed the frontlines. Thousands of cases were soon reported across the South. Infamously, Wilson refused to take any measures to halt the spread[5], arguing that the military situation was too perilous to divert resources to fighting the flu…

…Nor would the disease be confined to American soil. Cases were soon reported in Canada, then Britain and France (likely brought by the crews of cargo ships carrying American food). There was no stopping it. The American Flu would become the first modern pandemic…

- From The Great American Flu by Dr. Rand Paul

[1] IOTL, the first case was detected at Camp Funston, near the town of Manhattan, Kansas, which was a training center for troops headed to Europe.

[2] Three days after IOTL due to butterflies.

[3] IOTL, Sanger would go on to found the American Birth Control League, which later became the Planned Parenthood Federation of America.

[4] IOTL, the year Sanger (aged 80) stepped down as president of the International Planned Parenthood Federation.

[5] His response IOTL was similar.
 
"Bring out your dead!"
On a serious note, the final stage of the war was likely to be a grim affair even before adding the flu to it. On a fun note, the jockeying over policy makes me excited for when the broad front breaks down post war and we get a new party system.
 
I am concerned that a proponent of eugenics is in the position of Commissar of Health (especially for so long), but her Wikipedia page seems to indicate that her views in this regard were relatively milder and not necessarily racially based unlike many others at the time. How her views evolve during her time in government could affect these views (including others, such as her opinion on abortion) as well.
 
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