if i remember well, in OTL Germany planned to give Italy this stuff:
- Tunisia
- Savoy and Nizza with basically all the alps and maybe even Menton and stuff
- Corsica
- Malta
- Albanian protectorate
- British Somalia and Djibouti
Two of these are definites.
The British position in Malta is now absolutely critical (and to a lesser extent so is France at Algeria’s naval stations) and the Entente will do everything they can do entirely destroy Italy’s ability to reach and project power out of Libya in order to keep convoys in the southern Med safe.
Agreed.
Just trying to figure out - why is the Ethiopian emperor not falling in this TL?
Sure, the British may not have as many hands free to meddle, but they also have more incentive to meddle in a place near the warzone - plus Iyasu was OTL pretty much a dead ringer for 'just asking for a coup'.
This is a fair criticism. Proximity to the warzone was exactly why Britain
didn't meddle here- they reasoned that if they failed Ethiopia was pretty much guaranteed to declare war. The last thing they needed was Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, or worse, an attack into Sudan or Kenya.
Instead, with hatred of Italy nicely counterbalancing ties to Ottoman Turkey, Britain reasoned there was a very good chance of Ethiopia staying neutral if they minded their own business. Good diplomacy (for once) was rewarded with neutrality.
Lij Iyasu could easily have fallen, agreed. Don't know enough about Ethiopian politics of the era to write an informed, well-detailed arc set in the country so I kept him.
The war is going to end before the Zimmerman telegram right?
Without too many spoilers, I can say hostilities with the three main Entente powers will conclude at different times. So "the end of the war" is less clear-cut than OTL.
That said, no Zimmermann Telegram ITTL.
Prewar the plan was for the Italians and Austrians to combine at Augusta on the east coast of Sicily, with Austrian Anton Haus in overall command. While this arrangement might briefly occur at the start, unless the combined Austro-Italian fleet can catch the French in a pincer off the Strait of Otranto where they were patrolling to keep the Austrians bottled up and the Montenegrins supplied, the overriding Italian concern is going to be to protect their coasts against French attack. Most likely the Italians decamp to either Naples or Sardinia.
This may actually suit the Austrians quite well. Though they rejected a proposal in 1914 to move their fleet to the Black Sea and are going to do so again, now they have far less worry about the French and British blocking their path with the British mostly gone and the French tied up in Bizerte by the Italians, and a juicy target in the form of all the Dardanelles shipping and bombardment vessels. An intervention by Yavuz would add to the desirability of such a scheme.
The French concern is going to be to preserve their fleet and protect sea lines from North Africa to the Metropole. Threatening the Italians by staying in Bizerte suits them just fine. Bizerte also allows them to threaten Italian SLOCs with Libya and help the Brits in Malta cover trans-Mediterranean shipping, though both they and the Brits are going to be stretched thin covering two sets of convoys from Austrian and Italian cruiser raids. This especially because the Brits still aren’t as strong in the North Sea as they’d like. The German high-water mark has passed, but there must have been a lot of clenched butts in the fall of 1914 and winter of 1915. The Brits aren’t going to be eager to repeat the experience by releasing ships into the Mediterranean.
This is fantastic-- thanks so much. Will use it all.
Couldn't german and italian bombers attack Bizerte? Both the Gotha IV and Caproni have the range to fly from Palermo to there. Also with the situation on the central med this much better would Germany deploy more or less subs there?
Yes they could... this is something we may see, thanks for bringing it up.