REDUX: Place In The Sun: What If Italy Joined The Central Powers?

bguy

Donor
And the Midwest is full of ex-Germans. No chance of America joining the Entente.

Maybe I missed something but how is the British blockade policy different ITTL than IOTL? (IIRC it was also British policy IOTL to stop and inspect neutral ships bound to neutral countries bordering the North Sea like Sweden and the Netherlands so as to prevent material from being reexported to Germany.) The British blockade didn't poison US relations with Britain or keep Americans from being willing to eventually fight alongside the Entente IOTL so why would it have that effect ITTL?
 
Maybe I missed something but how is the British blockade policy different ITTL than IOTL? (IIRC it was also British policy IOTL to stop and inspect neutral ships bound to neutral countries bordering the North Sea like Sweden and the Netherlands so as to prevent material from being reexported to Germany.) The British blockade didn't poison US relations with Britain or keep Americans from being willing to eventually fight alongside the Entente IOTL so why would it have that effect ITTL?
It really won't. I'm not going to reveal spoilers as to what the US does ITTL but can promise it won't get dragged in the way Italy was.

Britain isn't blockading Sweden or even Italy. The PoD consists of them deciding to keep more coal at home for domestic/wartime use, and raising the prices of their remaining exports to compensate. The naval incident in chapter III occured after Britain refused to allow one specific shipment through because they feared it was actually going to Germany, and things escalated in the worst way possible.

Now of course, Italy gets to find out how much fun it is to be under a real blockade, and under wartime economic strain too!
 
I was thinking, couldn't Germany use zeppelins and later gothas to harass Malta if they're based on Italy?

Attention: in this TL the Caproni Ca.32 and Ca.33 will not be the main bombers of the Entente, but of the Central Empires ... Now, already the Ca.32, which entered service in 1915, has a load of 350 kg of bombs, an autonomy of 450 km ... The distance between Modica, Sicily, and Malta is 131 km ... So a Caproni squadron could without too many problems bomb Malta and go back ...
 
Hmm...enjoyable read so far.

Absent the Italian front, A-H doesn't suffer the apalling losses of 1917, and can dedicate more manpower to the Eastern front, where the real show of pushing over the Russians takes place. Russia is still probably unable to ship through the Black Sea, unless the British absolutely crush the combined Italian-Austrian navies, and can they do so without denuding their blockade and the Grand Fleet? To squash one, does she risk being attacked and beaten by the other?

Furthermore, does Russia lose more quickly, and does this give the Central Powers enough time to usefully get the resources of Ukraine and the Baltic into Germany and Austria to feed their population?

Alternately, does the famously fragile Italian army, which struggled against A-H, collapse under Franco-British pressure and cause a political crisis that leads to an earlier armistice?
 
So is Spain going to act as a middle country for Italy like the germans did with the dutch?
Yes; a long coastline and (fairly) unstable government susceptible to Central Powers influence both help. Portugal didn't join the Entente until fairly late in the war so they'll be of no use. And blockading Spain would open a third front for France very quickly.

Spain --> Italy --> Germany will probably be the main route.
 
Hmm..Alternately, does the famously fragile Italian army, which struggled against A-H, collapse under Franco-British pressure and cause a political crisis that leads to an earlier armistice?

Doubt the Entente have the manpower to try. And since I think they still attempted Gallipoli they won’t have the appetite for another huge amphibious campaign, the only alternative to an Alpine campaign.
 
Doubt the Entente have the manpower to try. And since I think they still attempted Gallipoli they won’t have the appetite for another huge amphibious campaign, the only alternative to an Alpine campaign.
An alt-Operation Husky wouldn't be feasible; Gallipoli proved amphibious tech had to evolve another generation first.
We will see the result of France's brilliant Alpine offensive in two chapters. Spoiler: it won't be Napoleon Crossing The Alps.
Half the French Army went on strike in '17. The Italians are going to hurt bad, but so will the enemy.
Oh yes they will!
 
An alt-Operation Husky wouldn't be feasible; Gallipoli proved amphibious tech had to evolve another generation first.
We will see the result of France's brilliant Alpine offensive in two chapters. Spoiler: it won't be Napoleon Crossing The Alps.

Oh yes they will!
French hurting bad is an understatement of quite heavy magnitude, because italy is the rod that will drain them like a stuck pig until white as a ghost. Especially with joffre in command. The type of meat-grinder battles that cadorna loved creating is probably the best type of battle to wage in this scenario. ONLY one tiny little problem that isn't how cadorna is thinking he isn't trying to create to create a bloodfest he is trying to actually win and that will cost italian lives though with current French plans it will take the coming year before that reality actually sets in.
 
If the war lasts long enough for tanks to pick up steam it would be interesting if the Motorgeschutz was eventually developed into something feasible. The A7V wasn't good and lighter proposals came in too late.
 
Yes; a long coastline and (fairly) unstable government susceptible to Central Powers influence both help. Portugal didn't join the Entente until fairly late in the war so they'll be of no use. And blockading Spain would open a third front for France very quickly.

Spain --> Italy --> Germany will probably be the main route.
France having to fight in both the Alps and Pyrenees would be a big yikes
 
If the war lasts long enough for tanks to pick up steam it would be interesting if the Motorgeschutz was eventually developed into something feasible. The A7V wasn't good and lighter proposals came in too late.
That's probably going to be a postwar development, but it could represent a new line of development for German armour.
I'd need to do some more research to see how German armour would develop in a world absent the Treaty of Versailles and years of no development in the 1920s.

Austria-Hungary will probably build off of the Skoda Words. (Panzerkempfwagen 35 Osterreichen, perhaps?)
 
I'd need to do some more research to see how German armour would develop in a world absent the Treaty of Versailles and years of no development in the 1920s.
The germans, by the end of the war had 3 prototypes of light tanks so you could start from there if the school of war of movement becomes dominat. But I don't think development would be that much diferent from OTL, just less stealth (as in they aren't going to go the middle of the USSR to test the things),

Austria-Hungary will probably build off of the Skoda Words.
That's the logical conclusion, but see what the hungarians can do with Turan 2, altough as in OTL the Skoda models would be more successful in the international market.
 
Part II: Everyone Do Your Duty
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Chapter VII- The Die Is Cast

Chapter VII

The Die Is Cast


Italy declared war on the Triple Entente on 1 October 1915.

The news surprised all, from the diplomatic staff abroad to the foremen of weapons factories. Many hated the austriaci and inglesi in equal measure and followed war news passionately. Politicians, journalists, and (under pseudonyms) officers had penned articles supporting one side or the other, or had fiercely advocated for neutrality. Some Italian citizens fought in the French Foreign Legion, others with their co-linguists in the Habsburg army. Parish priests offered memorial Masses after news of a big offensive. French, British, and German spies had rubbed shoulders and traded shots in Rome; determined refugees and conscientious objectors tricked their way into safety. Italian shipping was under threat on the high seas; submarines occasionally clashed too close to Italian territorial waters. Yet Italy remained neutral. Overarching though the Great War was, it had never been their war.

And now it was.

The scenes greeting the announcement were at once heroic and tragic. As if ignorant of what lay ahead, as though the horrors of the trenches and privation of the home front meant nothing to them, the Italian people celebrated. Students raced from their dormitories with their friends, clad in their Sunday best, to enlist. Families sent them on their way with the best provisions and wine, lovingly wrapped up. Old men, even if they disliked allying with the austriaci, cheered at the idea of revenge on the perfidious British. Red, white, and green bunting appeared as if by magic on every lamppost and windowsill. Impromptu marching bands accompanied hometown heroes to the train stations, playing the national anthem and sprightly marches. Though they had to have known what lay ahead, the Italian people still celebrated. Part of this was release. Ever since Britain cut coal imports last November, the people had suffered without a good cause. Miserly foreigners and weak domestic leaders had caused their misery; not something in which to take pride. Now, worse though the privations would be, they were for a just cause: la patria. Another part was that Italy had been a second-rate power for so long. Many, domestic and abroad, had opposed its protracted unification. Its colonial ventures had brought mixed results. Even the war with Turkey had confirmed its own weaknesses. Sitting out of the Great War had confirmed charges of cowardice and ineptitude. It depended on first Britain, then Germany for its coal. Now, Italy's young men could prove the nation's virility, not just stand up to but overcome the proud French and vaunted British. Just as all the Great Powers had in 1914, the Italian people saw this war as a chance to settle scores and find glory.

Yet no one had known what lay ahead in 1914. Seeing the war as a grand adventure had been excusable. Now, the Italian people knew the hell that lay ahead. Genuinely believing they could avoid it would have been as hubristic as it was naïve. The only explanation, then, is that in that moment they didn't care. Through hardship to the starts and through the trenches to glory. So the lambs marched to the train station, regimental colours in hand, waiting to be shipped to slaughter.

The only segment of the population to greet war with dread were the men to lead it: Italy's vaunted officer corps. Bravado aside, these men knew they had their work cut out for them. The political intrigue surrounding the declaration had made secrecy advisable. This had been a political decision made by Sonnino, one which General Cadorna had opposed. If he had had his way, the Chief of Staff would have devised a brand-new war plan in concert with the Germans, yet he hadn't had time. Prewar plans for war with the Entente had assumed Italy would join such a conflict from the beginning, with its enemies at the same low level of readiness. Facing an already-mobilised France would be a far greater challenge.

Most of their countrymen were asleep at 0500 hours, yet the men of the Italian Army were wide-awake. Hot coffee did what adrenaline and fear couldn't. They had dug these trenches by hand over the past few weeks, carving shelter from hard rock in the hopes of weathering the storm. Honour was beautiful and their work noble, but no one wanted it to happen. Cries for war in the newspapers were so far removed from reality. Flecks of humanity- a family photo against a cot, a Sacred Heart over a dugout, a goat more a pet than a beast of burden- had asserted themselves. The men did as they were told, readying themselves and hoping against hope it wouldn't happen.

When the word roused the artillerymen from their beds after midnight, they let out a long sigh. Peace and security were things of the past. The first shell to crash into the French lines crushed a million hopes.

Thousands followed in its wake as stockpiles built up over weeks were fired off into the dawn sun. Over seventeen hundred guns were arrayed along the front from the Mediterranean Sea to the Swiss border; nearly half were along the southernmost twelve miles near Nice. Many came from elite mountain units, their gunners having long trained for this. Mountain heights provided perfect vision and 45-degree angle from such heights enhanced range, even if a lack of long-range guns precluded striking behind the lines. Despite this, there were problems: a desire to avoid diplomatic incidents (or worse, a pre-emptive French strike) had prevented the gunners from training in their new positions. Conscripts with minimal practise panicked and performed poorly under the strain. Having anticipated this, Cadorna dispersed veteran officers to assist. Fire rates and accuracy were imperfect, but the volume of shells fired atoned for it. Few questioned whether expending so much ammunition so early on was wise.

Word reached General Paul Maistre at 0416 in Grenoble (1). Unsurprised, he bore the news well. "In some ways", he recalled in subsequent memoirs, "the news was a relief; I could not operate with total freedom, politics aside." Hurried telegraph and telephone exchanges with corps and division headquarters confirmed the pounding frontline units were taking. However, early reports, unreliable as they were, suggested the men were well-protected. All the effort put into enhancing fortifications had paid off. What concerned him was the concentration of force near Nice. Its proximity to the front was the reason he was based in Grenoble, and unless the Italians were looking at a different set of maps, striking there was natural. Instinct told him to reinforce it, but orders suggested otherwise. Joffre, who had returned to Paris two days ago, had specifically ordered a counter-attack once the shooting began. Manpower limits had forced Maistre to maintain a large tactical reserve with which to take Turin after three weeks (he found the orders ludicrous as well). Using them to defend the south would de facto cancel the offensive, and Joffre would have his job. Choosing the safe course, Maistre telephoned Joffre forty-five minutes after the shooting began.

"Contra-attaque avec l'audace- toujours!" Five words summed up the French experience on the Alpine front. Like everyone else, Joffre had forseen this war, and would have shot first had he the authority. Cadorna having given him that authority, he was determined to seize the initiative. Maistre ran through what was being done- a counter-bombardment of known Italian positions and local infantry attacks- while Joffre examined a detailed map. He agreed with Maistre that the Italians were aiming for Nice, yet thought this a good thing. Such a commitment in the south would leave them helpless against the blow he intended to strike further north. The obvious question- what if Nice falls?- was brushed away. Having expected such a move, he'd examined the city's fortifications. "Sultan Mehmed's cannon could not blow past them!" An awkward silence followed his grand declaration. To speak was to be sacked, so Maistre kept silent. Joffre ran over the timetable for launching his counteroffensive and put the receiver down. Two hours had elapsed since the firing began.

Bombardment continued for a week. Taking cues from his foe's Western Front campaigns, Cadorna sought to erode the frontline defenders. Shelling tapered off after a few days in the north but it persisted in Nice. All the while, Italian soldiers knelt in their mountain dugouts, quickly accustomed to the sound of shellfire. Dread had become excitement for a few days, which had, in turn, become resignment. They would attack when the word came and the French would kill many of them. All that could be done was to go ahead when the time came. They were motivated less by honour or patriotism- abstract things- than knowing that if they crossed the French they might die, but if they crossed their own officers they certainly would. Survival dictated compliance.

As the days passed, General Maistre's confidence grew against his own expectations. Joffre had been right- the line east of Nice held. Adjacent villages such as Menton and Tende had been reduced to rubble but the military positions remained intact. Casualties were lower than feared (Alpine rock provided formidable cover) while the French guns and headquarters had survived. When the enemy went over the top, the French would be ready, even if the theatre reserve would have made a great difference. Instead, those men were marching to the northern sector, ready to "take Turin in three weeks." The orders were Joffre's, so Maistre's conscience was clean. Survival dictated compliance.

By the evening of 7 October, General Cadorna was ready. Mountain observers had brought back reports: there was no way any significant formations could have survived in the front line. Men in trenches and bunkers had surely made it through, but not their supplies, pack animals, or communications equipment. Attacking would be a matter of collecting dazed prisoners before marching west. "With the confidence of all Italy", as he recalled years later, Cadorna gave the order to advance. So at dawn the Italians climbed from their dugouts and crossed the Alpine no-man's-land...

...straight into a hornet's nest.



  1. Italy and France operated in different time zones according to this map
Comments?
 
Cue machine guns and artillery opening up on charging Italian soldiers and mowing down thousands in the first few days of the attack, and Cadorna possibly deciding to attack again and again over the coming months/years (if any of the memes/exaggerations about his conduct at the Isonzo is to be believed or taken completely seriously). Although France does not need that many troops to defend the Alpine Front, it means that there are likely 150,000-200,000? less troops north fighting the Germans, which may come in handy when Verdun or future ATL battles occur, and thus could be decisive in a Central Powers victory.

Austria-Hungary has, and will continue to receive relief relative to OTL because they will never end up fighting on the Italian Front, meaning more troops could, and will be used against Russia which could help expedite a Russian defeat (or if not hasten the process, perhaps enable the additional several hundred thousand troops on the Eastern Front to better weather the Brusilov offensive or any other future offensive Russian action.
 
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