To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

A common cliche in CP victory TL is that nonetheless Austria-Hungary falls apart afterwards with Austria joining the German Empire and Hungary becoming a loose cannon. Some predominantly Slavic areas cause some trouble. I have long been willing to accept that line of thinking as probable I do not accept it as inevitable. However my own intuition was that the later the war ends the more likely that the breakup will happen. That does not augur well but I waiting to see the author's analysis here.

"They called it a ramshackle empire. I wish to God there were more such empires" -- James Joyce
 
I have long been willing to accept that line of thinking as probable I do not accept it as inevitable.
I would downgrade probable to possible
AH was salvageable even until 1919, were there any desire among the victors to do so (unfortunately, the Entente nations were the Entente nations)
However my own intuition was that the later the war ends the more likely that the breakup will happen
Depends on how badly AH does - successes could be something that succeeds in glueing everyone together on a rally round the flag effect.
 
I’ve enjoyed the writing so far. As far as plausibility unfortunately any spring offensive victory is largely implausible because every breakthrough of the German army after mid 1916 always collapsed on itself when they would capture regimental bakeries and field kitchens and the men would stop to gorge and refuse orders to continue the advance. By 1917 their discipline level was hardly any better than the Russian or Italian army… it’s good writing and not a deal breaker for me

That’s always the roadblock (and why I always regarded zabecki as nonsense/treating infantry like digits on a piece of paper); the ww1 German army in every single offensive where they broke through stopped to loot, which would always let the enemy bring up reserves and seal off the breakthrough, and alternate histories never address this item either by finding a solution to their starvation before the offensive started or finding a way to correct the offensive discipline issues

say what one wants about Rommel short comings as a commander his troops always pursued the defeated enemy without stopping to gorge in the middle of battle even when they had gone without for months in the desert, the man ran a tight ship
 
As far as plausibility unfortunately any spring offensive victory is largely implausible because every breakthrough of the German army after mid 1916 always collapsed on itself when they would capture regimental bakeries and field kitchens and the men would stop to gorge and refuse orders to continue the advance.
This is true until you remove the logistical structures of the Entente forces - which counteracts the Germans' own loss of cohesion. I intentionally made the offensives see only limited changes early on, for example; the diversion of forces to prop up the northern 'wing' of Operation Michael. By doing that they push further and thus cut off the main axis of advance of the Australian brigades that IRL defended Villiers Bretonneux. By doing that the Germans almost certainly would have met no opposition, or at least minimal opposition, to their capture of the town and thus establish artillery positions there. By doing that, Amiens falls under fire - and thus makes it largely indefensible and pointless to continue to hold - the train station doesnt work if it's being shelled directly.

Secondly; the attack in Georgette where historically German forces attacked Mount Kemmel. This was historically held by a small number of extremely ill-prepared French units that, again, are not here. Obviously that doesnt mean there would be no troops ittl, but whatever forces are there would be spread just as thin and exhausted British forces - who ittl are attacked rather than holding back after the Army actually listens to it's Chief of Staff. The fall of Mt Kemmel means the almost certain collapse of the Ypres wing of the British line, which would force a withdrawal of Ypres (as was initially ordered by Haig before it was countermanded by Foch). The absence of Amiens as a logistical hub before Georgette means a weaker British line (subjective but still plausible) which means that German forces can push on to near Hazebrouck and again break the British logistical structure - even without capturing it. Thus forcing a total British withdrawal back to the Channel ports (again, as Haig ordered irl and would have ordered in such a scenario as the front would become logistically untenable).

So, to conclude; Saying...
As far as plausibility unfortunately any spring offensive victory is largely implausible because every breakthrough of the German army after mid 1916 always collapsed on itself when they would capture regimental bakeries and field kitchens and the men would stop to gorge and refuse orders to continue the advance. By 1917 their discipline level was hardly any better than the Russian or Italian army… it’s good writing and not a deal breaker for me
Is kind of a frustrating point to make. To dismiss the timeline for a sole reason which I've gone to great pains to outmanoeuvre, and then try to make up for it by saying "good writing tho" is nice, but also doesn't actually make me feel any better lol.

It's entirely plausible.
 
Last edited:
This is true until you remove the logistical structures of the Entente forces - which counteracts the Germans' own loss of cohesion. I intentionally made the offensives see only limited changes early on, for example; the diversion of forces to prop up the northern 'wing' of Operation Michael. By doing that they push further and thus cut off the main axis of advance of the Australian brigades that IRL defended Villiers Bretonneux. By doing that the Germans almost certainly would have met no opposition, or at least minimal opposition, to their capture of the town and thus establish artillery positions there. By doing that, Amiens falls under fire - and thus makes it largely indefensible and pointless to continue to hold - the train station doesnt work if it's being shelled directly.

Secondly; the attack in Georgette where historically German forces attacked Mount Kemmel. This was historically held by a small number of extremely ill-prepared French units that, again, are not here. Obviously that doesnt mean there would be no troops ittl, but whatever forces are there would be spread just as thin and exhausted British forces - who ittl are attacked rather than holding back after the Army actually listens to it's Chief of Staff. The fall of Mt Kemmel means the almost certain collapse of the Ypres wing of the British line, which would force a withdrawal of Ypres (as was initially ordered by Haig before it was countermanded by Foch). The absence of Amiens as a logistical hub before Georgette means a weaker British line (subjective but still plausible) which means that German forces can push on to near Hazebrouck and again break the British logistical structure - even without capturing it. Thus forcing a total British withdrawal back to the Channel ports (again, as Haig ordered irl and would have ordered in such a scenario as the front would become logistically untenable).

So, to conclude; Saying...

Is kind of a frustrating point to make. To dismiss the timeline for a sole reason which I've gone to great pains to outmanoeuvre, and then try to make up for it by saying "good writing tho" is nice, but also doesn't actually make me feel any better lol.

It's entirely plausible.
Try not to take things too personally, as that whole mess earlier showed, there's only so much you can do to convince people and letting yourself react to every person that doesnt agree with you is just gonna burn you out In the long run.
 
This is true until you remove the logistical structures of the Entente forces - which counteracts the Germans' own loss of cohesion. I intentionally made the offensives see only limited changes early on, for example; the diversion of forces to prop up the northern 'wing' of Operation Michael. By doing that they push further and thus cut off the main axis of advance of the Australian brigades that IRL defended Villiers Bretonneux. By doing that the Germans almost certainly would have met no opposition, or at least minimal opposition, to their capture of the town and thus establish artillery positions there. By doing that, Amiens falls under fire - and thus makes it largely indefensible and pointless to continue to hold - the train station doesnt work if it's being shelled directly.

Secondly; the attack in Georgette where historically German forces attacked Mount Kemmel. This was historically held by a small number of extremely ill-prepared French units that, again, are not here. Obviously that doesnt mean there would be no troops ittl, but whatever forces are there would be spread just as thin and exhausted British forces - who ittl are attacked rather than holding back after the Army actually listens to it's Chief of Staff. The fall of Mt Kemmel means the almost certain collapse of the Ypres wing of the British line, which would force a withdrawal of Ypres (as was initially ordered by Haig before it was countermanded by Foch). The absence of Amiens as a logistical hub before Georgette means a weaker British line (subjective but still plausible) which means that German forces can push on to near Hazebrouck and again break the British logistical structure - even without capturing it. Thus forcing a total British withdrawal back to the Channel ports (again, as Haig ordered irl and would have ordered in such a scenario as the front would become logistically untenable).

So, to conclude; Saying...

Is kind of a frustrating point to make. To dismiss the timeline for a sole reason which I've gone to great pains to outmanoeuvre, and then try to make up for it by saying "good writing tho" is nice, but also doesn't actually make me feel any better lol.

It's entirely plausible.
The research and mapping is well done don’t get me wrong, im following and enjoying. the operation Michael forces stopped to gorge once they got deep in the 5th army’s rear areas (and also took heavy casualties overrunning them too) and refused orders to keep moving, we can blame it on lundendorffs dithering and lack of objective focus all we want but that’s the crux to overcome; feeding more forces into the one place there was fresh bread in German control doesn’t improve the situation, it just adds to the mobs looking for a warm meal who wont obey orders; the exact same
Thing happened (with many of the same troops) at caporetto. Rommel advance spears got across the piave and where already snatching up ccc prisoners but the rest of the divisions had stopped to gorge and where disobeying orders to continue the advance which forced Rommel and the alpenkorps to have to withdraw to avoid being cut off

Michael was a fools errand like the second stage of operation typhoon or operation Aida, the only way to win was to not play. Implausible isn’t impossible, it’s just under the circumstances it needs more points of departure than just superior offensive planning
 
One of the other timelines that I enjoy is A Day in July, regarding how Germany develops - where they actually become a stable parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy and have better luck than OTL.
One of the best, though so far this one is up there alongside it
 
One of the other timelines that I enjoy is A Day in July, regarding how Germany develops - where they actually become a stable parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy and have better luck than OTL.
A Day In July might just be the best TL on the entire website.
 
One of the other timelines that I enjoy is A Day in July, regarding how Germany develops - where they actually become a stable parliamentary democracy under a constitutional monarchy and have better luck than OTL.
I like Es Geloybte Aretz because it seems to challenge the German Empire to improve rather than just giving it fortunate fixes for its flaws. Also, the narrative sections in the first part of the timeline are excellent.
 
Compared to OTLs Treaty of Versailles a White Peace basically is a "Germanwank" by default. A peace where they loose some Colonies and get B-L recognised even more so.
That's why people throw out that term way too freely.
An actual Germanwank would be them winning in 1915 after a much more successful Schlieffen Plan resulting in a victory with much much less economic damage and casualties than one in 1917 or 1918 would entail, followed by reconciliation with France which becomes a happy junior partner in Mittereuropa.
 
No update tonight, I need to amend some stuff and after getting stressed out about the criticism and other factors I'm too tired to finish it.

Shall go up tomorrow.
 
No update tonight, I need to amend some stuff and after getting stressed out about the criticism and other factors I'm too tired to finish it.

Shall go up tomorrow.
Please don’t stop writing this TL because it’s fantastic.
I myself would literally buy this as a book and I know many others would too.
Try to keep your chin up @TheReformer , we are rooting for you!
 
I'd like to get into those two TL's, but they're so damn long that I just can't.

Es Geloybte Aretz is definitely worth it. Together with A Day In July and The March Of Time, it makes my top three of alternate history timelines on this site, and I'm sure TheReformer's will soon make that list a top four! I'm sorry that The March Of Time doesn't get more traction and would encourage you all to give it a read. Each timeline has its strengths, and I think no one does super early 1900 diplomacy like The March Of Time.
No update tonight, I need to amend some stuff and after getting stressed out about the criticism and other factors I'm too tired to finish it.

Shall go up tomorrow.

Take your time.

It's kind of bizarre to me that there is such a repeated failure at following the one rule set out by this timeline and its author...

Look, I get it. This is a forum of incredibly knowledgeable and nitpicky people. That's fine.

But we are ultimately here for entertainment and enjoyment. And certainly "being right on the internet" is less important than the explicitly referenced mental health of the author.

And it's not like this is one of those lightly researched timelines that could be argued to belong in Writer's Forum. It is easily in the top 1% on the website in terms of depth, at a time when the standards are already high and the number of frequently updated timelines quite low. So, I think we can avoid dishing out far reaching conclusions about the TL. Even if you personally quibble with specific event chains, I think we can all agree that the content is both eminently plausible and impeccably researched.

Just... Whatever, felt like saying it. My two cents.
 
Es Geloybte Aretz is definitely worth it. Together with A Day In July and The March Of Time, it makes my top three of alternate history timelines on this site, and I'm sure TheReformer's will soon make that list a top four! I'm sorry that The March Of Time doesn't get more traction and would encourage you all to give it a read. Each timeline has its strengths, and I think no one does super early 1900 diplomacy like The March Of Time.


Take your time.

It's kind of bizarre to me that there is such a repeated failure at following the one rule set out by this timeline and its author...

Look, I get it. This is a forum of incredibly knowledgeable and nitpicky people. That's fine.

But we are ultimately here for entertainment and enjoyment. And certainly "being right on the internet" is less important than the explicitly referenced mental health of the author.

And it's not like this is one of those lightly researched timelines that could be argued to belong in Writer's Forum. It is easily in the top 1% on the website in terms of depth, at a time when the standards are already high and the number of frequently updated timelines quite low. So, I think we can avoid dishing out far reaching conclusions about the TL. Even if you personally quibble with specific event chains, I think we can all agree that the content is both eminently plausible and impeccably researched.

Just... Whatever, felt like saying it. My two cents.
Never heard of Es Geloybte Aretz. What’s the non-spoilery TLDR? Lord knows I have enough TLs I’m reading rn but still could be good to have one for when I finish Osman Reborn
 
Never heard of Es Geloybte Aretz. What’s the non-spoilery TLDR? Lord knows I have enough TLs I’m reading rn but still could be good to have one for when I finish Osman Reborn
Haven't read that one fully yet either (too many things to read, not enough time, you know? :) ) but IIRC from looking briefly once the starting premise is Wilhelm II dying shortly after being crowned
 
Top