Spain Joins the Axis: What is its fate?

So say that Franco is convinced to join the Axis and declares war on the Allies in late 1940, leading to the fall of Gibraltar and a tougher Med campaign. Obviously the Axis is still going to collapse, and maybe by 1943 Spain itself will have been partially invaded ala Italy, while the Third Reich and its Axis allies collapse is all but assured by 1945 still. However, with Franco having willfully joined the Axis, does he get to remain in power? Will the Allies simply overthrow Falange? Who could even govern Spain in the aftermath.

As a bonus, do we see a civil war like post-war Greece between resurgent Republicans and Monarchists?
 
There is not way how Franco or Falangists are allowed to stay in power since they voluntarely joined to Axis.

Spain pjrobably becomes republic after the war. I would imaginate its looking politically pretty similar as Italy after WW2.

Spain probably remain as unified nation. France hardly is willingful accept independent Basque Land and Catalonia.

But Spain probably lost all of its holdings outside of Iberia. Ceuta, Melilla, and other Moroccan holdings are annexed by French Morocco. Not sure about fate of Western Sahara but it seems quiet logical that it would go to Morocco too. Not idea who would get Canary Islands. Perhaps Brits. French probably too get Spanish Guinea (modern day OTL Equarotial Guinea and it might become part of Gabon.

Spain itself would be admitted to NATO already in 1950's and joins to EEC much earlier.
 

Garrison

Donor
So say that Franco is convinced to join the Axis and declares war on the Allies in late 1940, leading to the fall of Gibraltar and a tougher Med campaign. Obviously the Axis is still going to collapse, and maybe by 1943 Spain itself will have been partially invaded ala Italy, while the Third Reich and its Axis allies collapse is all but assured by 1945 still. However, with Franco having willfully joined the Axis, does he get to remain in power? Will the Allies simply overthrow Falange? Who could even govern Spain in the aftermath.

As a bonus, do we see a civil war like post-war Greece between resurgent Republicans and Monarchists?
It's fate is the same as it was in the thread on the exact same subject last week...

ETA: This one in fact
 
It's fate is the same as it was in the thread on the exact same subject last week...

ETA: This one in fact

A good thread! Though I'm less interested in Spain's effect on the war and more on what the post-war Spain might look like. Does it require an occupation force? Do they reinstall the monarchy? Who could lead the government?
 

Garrison

Donor
A good thread! Though I'm less interested in Spain's effect on the war and more on what the post-war Spain might look like. Does it require an occupation force? Do they reinstall the monarchy? Who could lead the government?
Which is also explored in that thread. Its an utter disaster for Spain, cutting off crucial supplies, seeing territory seized, and reopening the wounds of the Civil War. Perhaps you should lay out what you expect would happen?
 
I suspect wouldn't have wanted to waste time and effort on an invasion of Spain any more than they did an invasion of Norway.

The route to victory lay through the invasion and conquest of Germany - the peripheries were a side show.

Could we see American supplies and arms dropped to anti-Franco forces? Conceivably though as Yugoslavia showed you have to know which is the right "resistance" side to back - an overtly pro-Communist resistance might be more successful but I suspect Washington wouldn't have been keen on Communists in Madrid by 1944.

The best option seems to let Franco stew - increasingly cut off from supplies and help. Once the allies invade Southern France in August 1944, German forces can retreat behind the Pyrenees but they will be as irrelevant to the outcome of the conflict as the forces in Norway and Courland and Hitler wouldn't have countenanced a withdrawal.

Can Franco do a "deal" with the Americans? If the alternative is Soviet Communism, there may be a deal to be done which keeps a broadly conservative Spain but the price will be Franco and his leadership. Another option is a broadly left-centrist grouping takes over and, as in France and Italy, there remains a strong leftist presence in Spanish politics through the late 40s and 50s.

Seems unlikely - the threat of invasion might be enough to cause the Franco regime to collapse.
 
I suspect wouldn't have wanted to waste time and effort on an invasion of Spain any more than they did an invasion of Norway.
There are some big differences.

Spain poses a major threat to Allied shipping in the Atlantic; Norway does not.

Spain's terrain is somewhat rough; Norway's is brutal.

Spain could be invaded from nearby Morocco, 150 km away, with land-based air cover; Norway would have to be invaded from the Shetland Islands, 300 km away, or Scotland, 500 km away, with only carrier-based air cover.

And most important...

Spain is on the mainland of Europe; Norway is not.
 
How does Portugal go in this scenario?
I've read that though Salazar's regime was close to fascism, he himself was anti-Nazi. Also that some Spanish nationalists of the period thought Spain should annex Portugal. So... Portugal may join the Axis in apparent sympathy but actually in self-defense.

Later, when push comes to shove, the Allies may land in Portugal, with the government changing sides as Italy did (but rather more willingly). The Portuguese flip may allow the Allies to capture Lisbon intact, providing them with the Big Port they need to sustain the land campaign.

Or Portugal remains neutral until after the Allies invade Spain, and when the Axis is no longer a threat to them, Portugal joins the Allies so they can use Lisbon. (The Allies will insist, but offer a boatload of incentives.)
 
From the point of view of Franco? A Fate that is... less than optimal, shall we say? Franco wasn't an idiot with delusions of grandeur & dreams of empire. His army was ill-equipped, his infrastructure was still shattered, and the Spanish people were exhausted from the Civil War. And, even if Gibraltar fell, the British still controlled the seas, Spain would starve. Which is why his demands to Adolf in return for Spain actively joining the Axis were so high. Excessive, even, from the Germans viewpoint. Franco knew exactly what would happen to himself and Spain if he signed up. He also knew that Spain was far more valuable to the Nazis as a neutral.

From the point of view of the Falangists? See above, even though a significant minority would have jumped feet first into a full-blown military alliance, regardless of the consequences. Fanatical Fascists are going to Fascist, after all.

From the point of view of Spain? Even more blood, death, destruction, disease and starvation, followed by occupation and restructuring. Post-war de-fascification and the return of either a more democratic republic or a constitutional monarchy, because there is no way in hell the Allies would permit the Falangists to remain in power. Spain would probably also lose her African enclaves & colonies. The Canary Islands would definitely be occupied by the Allies, especially if Gibraltar was threatened/captured. A post-war independence of Catalan could also be possible.

From the point of view of Portugal? A total shit-storm, with Salazar cursing Franco's entire bloodline with eternal damnation, for forcing Portugal into said shit-storm. Portugal would try to remain neutral, similar to Switzerland, Sweden, etc., although I could see Salazar siding with the Allies AFTER successful landings in Spain made it relatively safe for him to do so. He would be too mindful of what happened in Greece. I can also see Salazar privately agreeing to an Allied occupation of the Azores, while publicly decrying it as treachery to placate the Germans.

From the point of view of poor, little, almost constantly overlooked, Andorra? Probably borrow a leaf from San Marino and pray the oncoming storm doesn't hit them too hard.
 
The diplomatic and clandestine history of a post-war Spain ITTL is probably worth a timeline in and of itself. It would be fascinating territory, and I do imagine the comparisons to OTL Italy are not unwarranted. Spanish Republicanism, as a cause célèbre of the international left and it’s association with the Soviet Union, will be distasteful to the Western Allied powers. With that said, they can’t keep Franco and the Nationalist clique in power and so they’ll be casting about for a willing coalition. My money is on a coalition of center-right parties winning. I’m not very familiar with the state of Spanish underground politics post-Republic so I can’t give a satisfactory answer to this though. Wasn’t there a Republican government-in-exile somewhere staffed by bourgeois moderates? That could be promising.

Like in France and Italy, the PCE’s involvement in the partisan movement will give it credibility and electoral viability. The Western Allies will work overtime to ensure this does not come to pass - similar to the two aforementioned countries. As happened in other states liberated by the Allies, the former employees of the Francoist state won’t be entirely useless.. Promising members of the Second Section of Spanish intelligence and those in the Political-Social Brigade will be repurposed to combat ‘subversive elements’ and disrupt domestic communist organizations. Spain will have its own branch of the Allied stay-behind network and back channel networks will be established between elements of western intelligence and Spanish ultras and neo-fascists as happened elsewhere. The potential for this to escalate into a dirty war over the course of decades is real - after all Spain had enough of these OTL and if a Communist Party remains credible than something like the Years of Lead is very plausible. With OTL Spain being the European haven for the fascist remnants immediately following the Second World War, Salazar’s Portugal will now have to play that role. I guess Skorzeny will have to play dress up in Lisbon before graduating to higher purposes.

Spain will be stripped of her colonies and reconstructed in much the same way that Italy was. With an insurgent left with bitter memories of the civil war, I predict a great deal of violence during the early and middle stages of the Cold War. Perhaps even a military coup that ousts the Third Republic if things deteriorate to that point. Either way, a staunch and loyal ally of NATO throughout the period. No real chance for a socialist government barring popular uprising or Konev’s tank corps smashing through the Pyrenees.
 
Last edited:
There are some big differences.

Spain poses a major threat to Allied shipping in the Atlantic; Norway does not.

Spain's terrain is somewhat rough; Norway's is brutal.

Spain could be invaded from nearby Morocco, 150 km away, with land-based air cover; Norway would have to be invaded from the Shetland Islands, 300 km away, or Scotland, 500 km away, with only carrier-based air cover.

And most important...

Spain is on the mainland of Europe; Norway is not.
I think you're forgetting the most important one:
control of the south of Spain is vital if you want any shipping to go through the meditterrenean.
 
I think you're forgetting the most important one:
control of the south of Spain is vital if you want any shipping to go through the meditterrenean.
Another good point, though not IMHO the most important; that would be, initially, the threat to Atlantic shipping (the Allies can survive without Mediterranean shipping), and later, that Spain could be the first step on a land campaign to Germany. Yes, longer than from northern France - but if Spain has to be conquered first anyway, then (IMO) the overland campaign from Spain across France would be easier than a cross-Channel invasion. Consider the immense technical preparations for NEPTUNE, the sheer amount of specialized equipment required, the absolutely unavoidable risks of weather, and the serious constraints on Allied forces by dependence on supply by beach landings.
 
A Spain that joins in august 1940 makes British life very very difficult in the med

Gibraltar is neutralized near instantly by airpower and artillery and would fall in a siege pretty quickly ; although the British fleet would probably flatten the Spanish base at Cadiz on their way out

this near 100 percent forces Malta to be abandoned and ensures a more secure flow of supplies to axis troops in Libya; and gives the Italian navy much more operational flexibility since they only have enemies that can approach from one direction, and with the force h locked out of the med and most of the fleet recalled to home waters defense against seelion the RM could seek decisive battle against the Alexandria fleet and have some possibility of winning; especially since the British Air Force in Egypt in 1940 was basically nothing; all the good fighters wherent lost in France where committed to home defense

Strategic options for the British in the face of that would be very dark indeed until the Americans and Russians can be pulled in
 
The UK had contingency plans for this. Basically arrange an anti-Franco Nationalist coup. They had resources and contacts in place for just this eventuality,
 
Top