Tuesday April 26th, 2022
Who will be Alan Duke’s running mate in 2022?
The finest political minds at NBS have gotten together to compile this list. We have split the list into four parts: governors, senators, representatives, and others.
Governors
Governor James Adamson (Maine)
He was unheard of when he succeeded UN Ambassador Paris Stray to become Governor of Maine in January 2019, a result of Republicans taking control of the Maine Senate the previous November (Maine does not have a lieutenant governor). At 47, he is highly regarded in the state, and many in the GOP say that the party's strong performance in state elections in 2018 helped Henry Shallick perform far better than expected there. He won a term in his own right in 2020 with just over 50%. He regards himself as a “modern, common sense” conservative Republican.
Governor Ethan Butler (South Carolina)
Butler’s brand of economic populism and focus on the inclusion, diversity and charity nature of his faith has created a significant base in the party. Now in his second term as governor, he’s a skilled communicator and campaigner with a style homed in evangelical preaching. He surprised many by passing on 2022, looking like many at 2026 instead. It has been suggested that Butler would overshadow Duke on the ticket, something Duke is likely to never allow of his running mate.
Governor Walter Collins (Oregon)
A two-term governor in a traditional Democratic state. He is also a military veteran and has plenty of cross-party appeal. The downside is he would not be able to deliver Oregon to the socially conservative Duke, unlike a hypothetical Irving-Collins or Norton-Stewart-Collins ticket. As he clearly has an eye on 2026, he also likely wants to avoid being tied to Duke if he goes down to defeat this November.
Governor John Elderton (Utah)
A five-term governor, who also served three terms in Congress. Although a conservative on abortion and gun rights, he is pro-environment, having sold the governor’s car when he first took office and is a keen cyclist and put solar panels on all state buildings. Although he never supported gay marriage, Elderton did give same-sex couples in “domestic partnerships” the same tax breaks as married couples and similarly signed an executive order forbidding conversion therapy on minors in 2019 after the Republican-controlled state senate failed to pass a ban. Both of these may exclude him from consideration given Duke’s stances on LGBT issues. He was vetted for the vice-presidential nomination by both the Walken and Shallick campaigns in 2010 and 2018.
Former Governor Lucas Foley (Missouri)
Foley left office after two terms in 2021. He is a very strong campaigner, having won a from behind victory to be re-elected in 2016. It would take a massive landslide for Duke to lose Missouri, so he does not help the ticket there. He also doesn’t help balance the ticket geographically with Missouri bordering Duke’s home state of Oklahoma.
Governor David McNamara (North Carolina)
A former senator turned popular two-term governor from the battleground state of North Carolina. He will leave office with an approval rating over 70 percent, one of the highest of any sitting governor. Normally, he would and should be a serious contender, but there is one issue which will probably rule him out: the well-documented extramarital affairs he engaged in as a senator, which resulted in his first marriage failing and a subsequent battle with alcoholism. Duke has a dislike of what he calls “moral failings” and McNamara’s issues with infidelity and substance abuse, although over a decade ago, would clearly fall into this category. Although now remarried and a regular church attendee, that is still unlikely to win over Duke.
Governor Sandra Middleton (North Dakota)
Like Adamson in Maine, she is someone who ended up in the governor’s job by accident after Jamie Muller was elected to the Senate in 2018. She is only 43, but after an uncertain start in the job, she was elected in her own right in 2020. She is a conservative Republican and doesn’t have much relevant experience other than three years as governor of a small state.
Governor Scott Phillips (Arizona)
Term-limited this year, he is running for the Senate, and it would take a lot for him to abandon this run to unseat Antonio Rodrigues. He really sprang to national attention with his well-received response to the 2021 State of the Union. He has said several times that he wants to go to the Senate and is not interested in the vice-presidency at this point.
Governor Art Scheider (Ohio)
The former Air Force general’s election in 2018 came as a surprise to many, but he quickly became a man to watch as the governor of a vital swing state. He may be unpopular in Ohio now as he runs for re-election, but he is still very popular with many on the right of the Republican Party. Duke apparently likes him personally, and the pair have met and spoken regularly (although he remained neutral during the nomination battle). It should also be noted that most polls have him heading to defeat to former governor and current representative Josie Bail, so he may see the vice presidency as a way out. Ohio forbids candidates from running simultaneously for state and federal offices, so a Scheider selection would leave the GOP looking for another gubernatorial candidate.
Governor Mathew Stillman (Indiana)
Another former congressman turned governor and reliable conservative. Indiana state law forbids him from running for both the vice presidency and re-election as governor simultaneously, and he is likely to decline an offer to join the ticket with his re-election looking very likely.
Governor Owen Wells (Maryland)
The man seen as the standard bearer of the “Vinick Republicans” (although he is pro-life in general, he supports the right to abortion in certain cases, and has said many times he doesn’t want to overturn
Roe v Wade), and governor of state which is massively Democratic on the presidential level. If Duke wants to make good with the Vinick wing of the party, Wells would be the obvious pick, but he is not going to be able to put Maryland in play, and like many others on this list, clearly seems more interested in running on his own in four years’ time.
Senators
Senator Rob Buchanan (Virginia)
He flirted with getting into the Presidential race in late 2020. The former governor of Virginia is popular in his home state despite it starting to trend Democratic. He has also been a staunch defender of Confederate statues, and an outspoken critic of “cancel culture”. He would probably make Virginia a toss-up again and is many people's favourite for the job. He has the advantage that his Senate seat is not up until 2024, but Democratic governor Hugh Harrison would appoint his replacement if he becomes vice president next January.
Senator Peter Gault (Kansas)
For many on the right, this would be the dream ticket, with Duke picking the runner up from 2018. However, there are several issues that might make his selection unlikely. Gault isn’t as far to the right as people seem to think he is, and he’s made a personal outreach to the LGBT community and banned conversion therapy during his time as governor, both things Duke disagreed with. Like Foley, would also bring nothing to the table geographically hailing from another state that borders Oklahoma.
Senator Barbara Layton (North Carolina)
The other Republican from North Carolina who is almost certain to be vetted. The former congresswomen is an outspoken conservative who famously clashed with the Bartlet and Santos administrations when in the House, although she does seem to have mellowed since being elected to the Senate in 2016. She is up for re-election this year, but North Carolina does not prevent candidates from running in two state-wide races at the same time. She certainly ticks lots of boxes, and she would help Duke lose the “anti-woman” tag he has been stuck with and bring in more women’s votes.
Senator Tanner McClay (Florida)
Now in his second Senate term, he is an excellent campaigner and fundraiser. Although he’s a conservative, McClay isn’t a real “attack dog” type that would be expected of a running mate. Florida is a state which Shallick flipped in 2018, and McClay would be an advantage in keeping this big swing state in the Republican column.
Senator Laura Shallick (Missouri)
Another female contender from the party’s Senate caucus. What better way for Duke to make peace with the party establishment than by picking the wife of the 2018 nominee? She is a “Walken conservative”, and other than being chosen as a peace offering, she doesn’t seem to bring much else to the ticket given Missouri’s proximity to Oklahoma and the oddity that would arise from a husband and wife alternating on the GOP ticket.
Senator Ruth Norton-Stewart (Ohio)
Despite blowing her early lead for the presidential nomination, she is the most successful female candidate to run for the presidential nomination from either major party, winning almost nine million votes, eight states, and 322 delegates. She has now formally suspended her campaign and conceded to Duke, unlike Jasper Irving. It would be the obvious choice to try and unite the party by picking her, but due to the aforementioned Ohio state law that would allow Governor Scheider to seek re-election in Ohio while also running for vice president, she would have to give up her Senate re-election bid (something many think she will not do) in order to join the ticket.
Senator Michael Rojas (New Mexico)
First elected to the Senate in 2012 when he unseated Lloyd Russell, he has wide support across the party. Republicans are very keen on him, as a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate would be a huge boost to the Duke campaign. New Mexico has become a key battleground state with Shallick winning it by just 425 votes in 2018 (it should be noted on the same day Rojas won re-election by almost six percent), and some of Duke’s past comments about immigration and Hispanics in general could be offset by him picking Rojas. The only downside of his selection would be his seat being filled by Democratic governor Will Diego should the GOP win in November. Nevertheless, he looks like Duke’s most attractive and obvious pick, and is almost certain to be a top contender.
Senator Curtis Ryan (Oregon)
The other Oregon Republican under consideration, Ryan would probably only be an option if Walter Collins rules out joining the ticket. Two strikes against Ryan are that he’s a “Vinick Republican” who doesn’t bring executive experience to the table, and that Collins would not be able to fill his Senate seat with another Republican (Oregon state law requires a special election to fill Senate vacancies, which would almost certainly result in Democrats taking the seat).
Senator Ellie Wilkins (New Hampshire)
A mainstream conservative who has a small following in the grassroots of the party and is well-respected by independents and even Democrats. A woman from a swing state who many voters seem to relate to (her bored looks and eye-rolling went viral in the 2019 Senate hearings for former First Lady Abigail Bartlet’s nomination to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services), Wilkins normally would be one of the frontrunners for the post. However, she is running for re-election this year, and while she could run for both the vice presidency and Senate simultaneously, she’s unlikely to want to divide her attention in New Hampshire, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1994.
Senator Sorah Wheeler (Alaska)
Wheeler is nearing the end of her second term and is one of the most conservative members of the Senate. She was one of the few senators who actually got on with Duke when they served together, and she endorsed him for the nomination. The self-titled “gun-toting soccer mom” is on many pundit’s shortlists and more likely in the top five contenders as well and clearly fits the role of “attack dog.” Even though Wheeler would have to give up her Senate seat to join the ticket (Alaska does not permit running for multiple offices simultaneously), it seems clear that she would join a Duke ticket if asked.
Representatives
Representative Daniel Abend (Kentucky)
Abend is the House majority whip, and a conservative rising star in the House Republican caucus. While he would have to give up his safe House seat (Kentucky does not allow running for two offices simultaneously), it would be a tremendous boost to the young legislator’s career.
Representative Andrew Casey (New York)
The House Majority Leader, someone Duke is known to personally like, and who would be acceptable to all wings of the party. But many believe that he would be wary of the job offer and what it would mean for his political career should a Duke-Casey ticket lose in November.
Representative Will Durham (California)
The third placed candidate for the presidential nomination in 2018, he performed far better than anyone thought he would, carrying six states in the primary. But wasn’t interested in the vice presidency then, refused to be vetted by either the Shallick or Gault campaigns. An engaging personality, although he would not help much electorally: he didn’t even carry his own state in the 2018 primaries and California is a solid lock for President Seaborn.
Representative Patty King (Georgia)
A freshman and someone Duke campaigned for in 2020. The former teacher got into politics late in life and has some unusual and extreme beliefs: she is known for her campaign rants about “communist money”, dislikes the Internet for its ability to “turn children into slaves”, wants all teachers to carry concealed weapons, and believes vaccines are part of a vast plot to micro-chip and reduce the world population. Picking her might be a step too far even for Duke.
Representative Alton Moore (California)
If Duke goes down the route of picking another right-wing, Christian conservative, then look no further than Moore. He failed in his long shot bid for the nomination, getting only 1,243 votes to cap his long House career. He is about as conservative as Duke, if not more so. He was the only other Republican presidential candidate who defended Duke over his debate comments about LGBT Republicans. The major draws against him being chosen are his age (he is 71, four years older than Duke), and utter lack of charisma.
Others
Former Secretary of State Bradley Gilmore (California)
Gilmore was a House Republican up-and-comer before becoming Secretary of State between 2015 and 2019 and was highly respected across the world in this role. He would give Duke credibility, but he doesn’t help in his home state, and the fact he served in the Walken White House would not be a plus for many in Duke’s inner circle.
Former Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Kendrick (Indiana)
Another former governor and member of the Walken administration, Duke is believed to begrudgingly approve of him helping pass tax cuts under President Walken, even if he thinks Kendrick was too willing to compromise with Democrats (who controlled the House at the time). It’s unknown if Kendrick would be comfortable embracing “culture war” issues to the extent Duke does, and his time in the Walken administration might make the campaign’s inner circle wary of him.
Retired general Lloyd Pendleton (Virginia)
Along with the governors of Ohio and Oregon, Pendleton is the other military veteran likely to be on the long list. A three-star Army general, he was fired as Director of the Joint Staff after telling a far-right website that President Seaborn had "been harmful to the United States" in June 2021 before resigning his commission six weeks later. In a 37-year career, Pendleton served in the Persian Gulf, Equatorial Kundu and Gaza, and was a Pentagon officer for the last decade of his service. He has been working for Fox News and has built a cult following of viewers for his continued attacks on the Seaborn administration. He didn’t endorse anyone for the Republican nomination, but he is known to have spoken to Duke on several occasions since leaving the military.
Radio talk show host Henry Stern (Arizona)
The controversial Republican candidate for the Senate in 2018, who despite everything, lost by fewer than four thousand votes (less 0.2%) in a state that Henry Shallick carried by almost six percent. Stern was an early supporter of the Duke campaign, and has been speaking at Duke’s rallies during the primaries, in what many have seen as a “warm up” for being his running mate. He would be a controversial choice as he has no experience in elected office, but he did prove that he was a fierce campaigner and fundraiser in his 2018 campaign and would fit the role of campaign attack dog well. Duke likes him and clearly trusts him, and despite his clear lack of political experience, is not likely to rule him out of the running.
Analysis
By NBS Senior Political Host, Mark Bunn
What Alan Duke completed last Tuesday was one of the greatest comebacks in American political history. Almost seven and half years after being the loser in what is still regarded as one of the greatest ever defeats of a sitting U.S. senator, he became the GOP’s nominee for president.
Duke’s win in the nomination battle, is comparable to the likes of four Democrats: George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 , D. Wire Newman in 1986. and Jed Bartlet in 1998. Seen as outsiders facing several better funded establishment candidates, all four built on big grassroots support, were helped by mishaps to their rivals, managed to weave through the field against a divided opposition, and ended up as the nominee.
It should be noted that Duke managed to keep both his famous temper and penchant for making outspoken comments in check for the last few months. He does seem to have learnt from his mistakes in the 2014 senate race, and has run a very disciplined campaign, including keeping the ACA and the likes of Wesley Burke at arm’s length. Could he do this in a general election? Given who Duke is, it seems unlikely.
So far, other than some limited digs at Duke, the Seaborn campaign has been keeping their powder dry. It’s clear that is going to end now that he is the presumptive nominee. The attacks will start, and this is where his choice of running mate will be vital: will he pick someone from his wing of the party or reach out to the “Vinick” and/or “Walken” wings of the party. If he picks someone acceptable to the latter two, say Senator Buchanan or Governor Elderton, he is likely to head off billionaire Andrew Long’s independent campaign from becoming a major issue at the cost of possibly angering his core supporters if the candidate is too close to the centre. If he decides to choose someone from the extreme right, like Representatives King or Moore, he will be in serious trouble from Long. Another obvious issue for Duke is that if his poll numbers don’t improve, many contenders are going to shy away from being his running mate rather than be tied to a landslide defeat in November.
Duke has already caused one upset in winning the Republican presidential nomination. It seems unlikely he could cause a second one and win back the White House for the GOP. If he, does it will be a comeback for the ages comparable only to President Truman’s win in 1948.
Written and edited by @Marky Bunny @lord caedus and @MountainDew17
