Exocet - the Effects of a different Falklands

[Nevran]

Hi.

Hey.

So, I'm doing a TL starting from a successful Exocet missile strike during the Falklands conflict and the changes caused therein.

And you're doing this introduction as a back-and-forth monologue, instead of, I don't know, writing a well-worded paragraph?

Hey, I’m just following the long-established tradition in Wikibox threads of authors talking to themselves while trying to explain what’s going on.

So you're bringing back two long-dead traditions, then, both Wikibox TLs and this style of introduction?

Yeah, I guess. *rubs neck nervously*

You know that I didn't see you rub your neck so you didn't need to write that?

I'm just gonna get started, yeah?

The floor is yours.

 

[Nevran]

One Exocet missile from an Argentinian Super Étendard fighter jet, changed the tide of the Falklands War. The HMS Invincible, one of two British aircraft carriers in the South Atlantic at the time, was struck and rendered inoperable by the hit. The killing of 28 of the sailors onboard, including HRH Prince Andrew, was a profound blow to both the morale and the strategic position of the British armed forces.

​

Without the HMS Invincible at peak capacity, British air supremacy was lost, leaving both the troops fighting in the Falklands and the navy at sea in a far more tenuous position. Further, with the air capacity of the British cut in half, the fighters, and helicopters, critical to supporting the conflict, soon found themselves lacking a safe place to refuel and resupply. Images of a Westland Wasp being pushed into the sea from the deck of the HMS Invincible, encapsulated the crisis. By June 10, British military command recognised the situation to be untenable and ordered a tactical and temporary retreat from the Falklands, with the belief that by September, with the arrival of HMS Illustrious, the conflict could be won.

Margaret Thatcher, the British Prime Minister and one of the strongest advocates for military action, promised a return to fighting whilst the fleet limped home to Portsmouth. The apathetic British public, meanwhile, were consigned to defeat and proved resistant to continuing the conflict. Opposition leader Michael Foot, who in an ill-timed but immortalized quote, called this the “end of the British Empire”. The cries of “SHAME!” from the Sun newspaper, in response, proved out-of-touch with the public mood. Instead, the headline from Time magazine, ‘The Empire Strikes Out’ proved a more cutting and prescient appraisal of the conflict.

Military command, recognising the human and economic costs of the conflict alongside the Argentineans digging in, advised Thatcher against a second attempt to liberate the islands which she grudgingly agreed to. She would, however, continue to sabre-rattle and threaten the Argentinean junta, whilst diplomatic channels were opened by the Americans.

Through these secret backchannels (and the collapse of the Galtieri junta), by December 1982, an agreement was reached which saw the U.N. establish a protectorate in the Falklands. This protectorate would last for ten years with Argentina gaining access to the fishing reserves around the islands. Thatcher almost refused to sign the Madrid Accords, wanting instead to send Foreign Secretary Francis Pym in her stead. Thatcher, partially elected on her promise to cure the declinism infecting the British spirit, had overseen the greatest embarrassment since the Suez Crisis.

 

[juanml82]

It doesn't look like you want to write about the war itself but rather the post-war, but I'll jump ahead to all those who say a single exocet wouldn't sink a carrier. It wouldn't. But maybe it just so happens to set alight the aviation fuel depots and the fire ends up sinking her or leaving it inoperative and beyond repairs, with a storm finally sinking her while she was being trawled to somewhere?

 

[Nevran]

It doesn't look like you want to write about the war itself but rather the post-war, but I'll jump ahead to all those who say a single exocet wouldn't sink a carrier. It wouldn't. But maybe it just so happens to set alight the aviation fuel depots and the fire ends up sinking her or leaving it inoperative and beyond repairs, with a storm finally sinking her while she was being trawled to somewhere.

Ah okay, thanks. So rather than sinking the carrier wholesale, I guess a well placed hit could render the flight deck inoperable and still lead to the tactical retreat of the British taskforce?

 

[juanml82]

Ah okay, thanks. So rather than sinking the carrier wholesale, I guess a well placed hit could render the flight deck inoperable and still lead to the tactical retreat of the British taskforce?

Well, there is still Hermes, but if between Atlantic Conveyor and Invincible plus looses to the weather and AAA the British end up loosing too many aircraft, maybe. And for added humiliation and PR shock, maybe Invincible ends up sinking while being carried away for repairs.
To leave the RN without air cover, Argentina had to mission-kill both carriers, and that requires Argentina to roll too many sixes

 

[Nevran]

Well, there is still Hermes, but if between Atlantic Conveyor and Invincible plus looses to the weather and AAA the British end up loosing too many aircraft, maybe. And for added humiliation and PR shock, maybe Invincible ends up sinking while being carried away for repairs.
To leave the RN without air cover, Argentina had to mission-kill both carriers, and that requires Argentina to roll too many sixes

Alright then, I'll retcon the HMS Invincible sinking by missile but instead say its knocked out the fight by the missile hit.

 

[Nevran]

The 1983 UK general election saw Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives returned to power with a 90-seat majority, alongside a splintering of the opposition with a collapse in the Labour vote share and the rise of the SDP-Liberal Alliance.

Thatcher, who had struggled in her early tenure with high unemployment, inflation and a deep recession had polled as the most unpopular Prime Minister since polling began. Whilst the Falklands conflict and the humiliating Madrid Accords compounded this unpopularity, the Conservatives felt optimistic by early 1983. The resolution of the conflict saw attention turn away from the South Atlantic and instead return to more positive domestic circumstances. Thatcher had seen her economic policies of monetarism and deregulation to fruition which had finally enabled the economy to return to strength. In spite of the ‘Falklands Factor’, polling showed that there was more reasons to be optimistic than not.

Further, divisions in the opposition (seen through the ‘Gang of Four’ and the rise of the SDP-Liberal Alliance), emboldened Thatcher’s spirits and, in no small part due to her forceful personality, called an election for June 1983.

Despite seeing the Conservative vote share fall, the Conservatives gained 31 seats to retain a healthy majority of 70. Labour saw its seats decline by 41, and its vote share fall to its lowest percentage since 1935. Michael Foot would resign the leadership shortly after the election, to be replaced by Neil Kinnock. The SDP-Liberal Alliance enjoyed tremendous support in the popular vote, with 27.0% the highest recorded for a third party since 1923. However, with the inequities of first past the post found itself 200 seats smaller than Labour. A consolation was that all members of the Gang of Four remained in Parliament, including Shirley Williams of Crosby, who would go on to be elected leader of the SDP after Roy Jenkins stood down from the role after the election.

Thatcher, saw the election as vindication, and sought to use the largest Conservative majority since 1959, to continue her revolution.

​

 

[Unknown]

Well, at least Prince Andrew will have a much better reputation, to say the least...

 

[Nevran]

Well, at least Prince Andrew will have a much better reputation, to say the least...

His death profoundly shocked the Royals, especially the Queen, who favoured Andrew. As result Charles and Diana, who would give birth in June, decided to call their firstborn (OTL William) Andrew, colloquially known as 'Drew' to the public and press.

 

[Nevran]

Joe Clark had suffered from criticisms of his leadership abilities throughout his tenure as (Progressive) Conservative leader, which had manifested almost immediately after he won the 1976 leadership convention. These criticisms, alongside his public image of being inept and ineffective, had led to Clark’s defeat in 1980. This defeat, as to be expected, did little to stop criticisms of him as party leader. Two unsuccessful leadership reviews, one in 1981 which saw 66.1% of delegates vote against a leadership convention and another in 1983 which saw 69.5% vote against a review, were held. Despite 30% of the party not expressing confidence in Clark he chose not to hold a leadership convention, as was his prerogative. This decision alongside polls at the time showing Clark to be popular (holding a healthy 15 percentage point lead against the Liberals) meant that he would fight the next election as Conservative leader.

Whilst questions about the Conservative leadership ended, the Liberals began to have some about their own. Pierre Trudeau had “promised” that 1980 would be his last, and so there would be a leadership contest prior to the next election. Unfortunately for Trudeau, the initial front runner to be the next Liberal leader and Prime Minister, was John Turner. Trudeau held a lot of ill will against Turner after his 1975 resignation from Cabinet. When Jean Chrétien, a close ally of Trudeau, announced he was running for the leadership, the odds were heavily stacked against him. Defying those odds would take a combination of Chrétien’s vigorous and barnstorming campaign, Turner’s message of ‘change’ (having been away from active politics for 10 years) falling flat when faced with Joe Clark on the opposition bench and polling showing Chrétien (despite being less popular than Turner) could still go toe-to-toe with Clark in the upcoming election. A fierce convention battle saw Chrétien narrowly win the leadership, breaking the Liberal tradition of cycling between French and English leaders in the process. Chrétien, almost immediately after becoming PM, decided to call an early election for September, remembering the damage caused by not calling an early election during the 1974-1979 parliamentary term.

The 1984 election was, in many ways, a reheated version of the previous election. Clark struggled against a far more charismatic Quebecer, who was hated by the West. Chrétien’s past fights with the Albertan Premier Peter Lougheed over the New Energy Plan, returned on the campaign trail and these fights side-lined Clark, which did little to help fix his public image of being indecisive. A stilted debate performance from Clark, who struggled against Chrétien and Broadbent, also did little to persuade voters to support him or his party. Yet, public apathy with the Liberals (who had governed continually from 1962, with Clark’s short-lived 9-month government the exception), was palpable. Further, a patronage scandal and Chrétien’s closeness to Trudeau did little to help the Liberals. As a consequence of both main parties being unpopular, the New Democratic Party enjoyed success.

As expected, election night mirrored the stalemate seen throughout Canada. The Liberals remained the largest party (with over half its caucus being returned from Quebec) but fell short of a majority. The PC’s saw a slight recovery, but not enough to save Clark’s career who resigned as leader rather than face a further leadership challenge. The NDP gained 20% of the vote, the highest since its 1961 formation and resumed their role as kingmaker in Parliament. And so, after negotiations with the NDP, Chrétien and the Liberals was able to return to office and government.

 

[Nevran]

After a turbulent first term Margaret Thatcher had seen her effort and grit rewarded by voters. This reward was a second (elected) term in office, a feat which had alluded every Conservative Prime Minister since the war. Whether her victory was a result of her and her policies, or because of the splits in the left and centre-left or because of the leftover vitriol of the Falklands Conflict, was of little concern to Thatcher.

Thatcher further accelerated her economic programme initiating a period of more aggressive privatisation which saw British Telecom and Jaguar sold to the private sector. She also saw success in Europe, securing a fiscal rebate at Fontainebleau for Britain, in order to redress the apparent imbalance of the UK's contribution to the Community. Afterwards, she began to work more constructively with European leaders, with the aim of creating a 'Single Market' for goods and services across the Community.

Yet, her greatest challenge and the one which had brought down the last Conservative government, was seen with the miners’. Rather than using a single act such as Heath had attempted, (with the Industrial Relations Act of 1971), Thatcher took a slower and incremental process to reduce the power of the unions. When the NUM called a strike for better pay, led by Arthur Scargill, Thatcher was prepared and ready. Her speech to the 1984 Conservative Party conference would be a warning shot to the ‘enemies within’.

As she was preparing for this speech in Brighton, an explosion ripped through the Grand Hotel. Thatcher, who was getting ready for bed, after her final edits was killed in the blast. When the IRA claimed responsibility, they said that Thatcher’s death was a legitimate act of political discourse. That, unless Britain and her Government gave Ireland peace, her death would not be the last.

 

[jonathan hanson]

ohh man the IRA just really messed up i think

 

[Nevran]

In the smoke-filled hotel rooms of the Grand Brighton Hotel, Conservative MPs and cabinet members scrambled to replace Margaret Thatcher. The ensuing leadership election organised by interim leader and PM William Whitelaw, was scheduled for 5PM on the 13th of October. By postponing for a day proved prescient as it allowed Conservative MPs who skipped the conference the chance to gather in Brighton. It also allowed the shock and horror caused by the bombing to subside.

Michael Heseltine was one of the highest profile ‘wets’ in the party and was a public critic to some of Thatcher’s harsher policies, such as her conflict with the miners. However, as the incumbent Defence Secretary, he was in a prime position to become PM. Heseltine, further boosting his chances, conducted multiple media interviews and appearances on the day of the bombing, which quickly established him to be the frontrunner to many backbench MPs. This, along with the support of the still prominent One-Nation bloc, meant that by the next day, he seemed best positioned to take the leadership.

Meanwhile, the Thatcherite ‘dries’ in the party attempted to unite around a single candidate, but struggled. Keith Joseph was unpopular and eccentric. Geoffrey Howe was uncharismatic and dull. Norman Tebbit whose wife had been hurt by the blast, was seen as unpredictable and radical. Thus, as the dries were divided, the wets united. When the first ballot was cast, Heseltine cemented his front-runner status.

Whilst Howe and Joseph dropped out the race before the second ballot, in a straight contest between Heseltine and Tebbit, Heseltine was easily able to beat his rival and was elected as leader the next day.

When Heseltine spoke to the Conservative conference for the first time as leader, he held a six-minute silence, one for each victim of the attack. During Heseltine’s speech when he praised Thatcher, as the “greatest Prime Minister any of us will see in our lifetime”, he received an ten-minute standing ovation from the gathered delegates. Thatcher might be dead, but her legacy would live on.

 

[Nivek]

So Helssetine as PM? of course

 

[Nevran]

ohh man the IRA just really messed up i think

Let's just say that Northern Ireland is in for some interesting times.

So Helssetine as PM? of course

It might be cliché by this point, but the way I see it, there was no other potential successor to Thatcher for most of the 80s. Her favoured cabinet members like Cecil Parkinson had been burnt by his affair and lovechild, John Moore was too young at this point and would have fallen at the first hurdle (based on his overpromoted cabinet career) and Norman Tebbit, whilst ideologically aligned, would have been far too provocative and had bigger priorities (like caring for his wife who had been permanently paralysed by the blast). Even her eventual 'enemies' like Howe was seen as being too benign to be PM and from what I can tell, Lawson never wanted it.

 

[Nivek]

might be cliché by this point

Plus mayor is irrelevant at the point,thanks for the refreshment of the others one too

 

[Nevran]

Ronald Reagan, despite having presided over the early-1980s recession, had returned the country to economic growth and prosperity. His charm and personality had earned him the moniker of the ‘Great Communicator’. America had returned to a position of strength in world affairs. So universally popular amongst Republicans, he sailed to re-nomination by his party.

The Democratic primary proved, in contrast, far more competitive than expected. Walter Mondale, Jimmy Carter’s former vice president, faced a spirited challenge from Gary Hart, a candidate of ‘new ideas’ who represented both a clean break from the unpopular Carter Administration and from 'liberal' Democrats like Ted Kennedy and George McGovern. Hart’s second place showing in Iowa and victory in New Hampshire forced Mondale to go on the defensive and led to a brutal and competitive race. A contested convention followed but Mondale, a long-time party insider, had the support of nonelected superdelegates and was able to clinch the nomination with their support. Whilst Mondale’s selection of Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate earned him some good press, it was not enough to threaten Reagan's polling lead.

However, what did threaten Reagan’s lead was the president’s performance in the first debate. In a major setback for Reagan, he appeared tired and confused, and his lackluster performance made age an issue of the campaign. Margaret Thatcher’s assassination at the hands of the IRA in October 1984, shook up the presidential campaign. Reagan had not only lost one of his closest ideological allies but a personal friend. There also seemed a real chance that Northern Ireland could descend into sectarian violence, which in turn, would ratchet up tensions in the Irish-American communities of the Northeast.

The second debate saw Reagan return to form, with a heartfelt and provoking eulogy for Thatcher. Voters who tuned in remembered why they liked Reagan in the first place. So in a landslide, Reagan won re-election. Mondale was suffered the humiliation of winning only 3 states which were Minnesota, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
With his victory, Reagan proved both that 1980 wasn't an aberration and the he and his ‘revolution’ were here to stay. Many Democrats, including those who backed Mondale in the primaries, suffered buyers' remorse and wondered what would've happened if Gary Hart had been their nominee instead. Mondale dejected by this loss, left public life. Geraldine Ferraro, his historic running mate, set her sights on higher office.

 

[Nivek]

happened if Gary Hart had been their nominee instead.

It would have been worse, both otl and ittl , nice update buddy

 

[Time Enough]

It might be cliché by this point, but the way I see it, there was no other potential successor to Thatcher for most of the 80s. Her favoured cabinet members like Cecil Parkinson had been burnt by his affair and lovechild, John Moore was too young at this point and would have fallen at the first hurdle (based on his overpromoted cabinet career) and Norman Tebbit, whilst ideologically aligned, would have been far too provocative and had bigger priorities (like caring for his wife who had been permanently paralysed by the blast). Even her eventual 'enemies' like Howe was seen as being too benign to be PM and from what I can tell, Lawson never wanted it

This is true for 1984, there are others but it requires folks like David Howell being more proactive, he would probably just be happy to be included within a Heseltine campaign given how Heseltine was still considered as a ‘Centre’ Tory Candidate as it were. Late in time you do get more options, Tom King, Kenneth Barker, Richard Ryder all appear as choices but in the Mid 80s, Heseltine is probably the most likely not to scare the horses as it were.

 

[Virginia Liberal]

I wonder what the Naval reaction will be. I imagine there will be people saying if we still had real carriers this would not have happened.