The Russian Century - a TL

Nice series, just read all the current chapters. Like the path TTL Russia is going down, by the time the 21st Century come about, Russia will be a major world power. Can't wait for the next chapter. Keep up the good work.
 
I mean, it is already a major world power.

Agree. Russain empire is at this point much stronger than OTL Soviet Union on same time. More prosperous, more democratic, more populated and stronger army. And Russia has too better international relationships. Russia is probably too more industrialised than OTL Soviet Union on early 1930's.
 
Much, much better. This is exactly why a Russian German relation would make sense: Britian opposing the growth of Germany. France preferring Britian over Russia is a bit odd, but works for me. So kudos
 
Much, much better. This is exactly why a Russian German relation would make sense: Britian opposing the growth of Germany. France preferring Britian over Russia is a bit odd, but works for me. So kudos

Odd but understandable. France not want to be same side with Germany. So there is not other option as side with Britain. USA is not real option now when it is isolationist and doesn't care very much about European great powers.

I hope that we get soon update about American politics. Since USA hasn't entered to the war, its politics would be pretty different.
 
Chapter XIII: Quadruple Alliance, 1933-1939.
Update time!

Chapter XIII: Quadruple Alliance, 1933-1939.

During the 1930s the German Empire and the Russian Empire gravitated towards each other more and more closely. Tsar Nicholas II suddenly passed away as a result of a heart attack at the age of 65 in November 1933. His ambitious oldest son, the 38 year-old Grand Duke Alexander Nikolaevich, was crowned Tsar Alexander III in Moscow’s Dormition Cathedral. Marital ties sealed the deal between Berlin and St. Petersburg. Sophia of Prussia was Queen Consort of the Hellenes (i.e. Queen of Greece) and sister of German Emperor Wilhelm II. Her then 21 year-old daughter Irene, Wilhelm’s niece, had married the nine years older future Tsar in 1925.

Tsar Alexander III was ambitious and wanted to realize the warm water port on the Bosporus that Russia had been aspiring too ever since the fall of the Byzantine Empire to the Turks in 1453. It was very clear that Britain would oppose this and, despite Russia’s rapid industrial growth and infrastructural achievements, he wasn’t confident this could be done without allies: Russia had already tried that once during the reign of his great-grandfather Nicholas I in the Crimean War, which hadn’t gone well at all. France would never go against Britain as they had clearly made their choice: the French wouldn’t fight alongside Russia over the Bosporus against the British, which was the entire reason for leaving the Entente. Germany on the other hand might be interested: they craved for an overseas empire, which didn’t conflict with Russia’s goals in the Balkans, Turkey and the Middle East. His father had been reluctant to do so because of the legacy of the Great War, in which Russia and Germany had been enemy’s, but Alexander III held no grudges over a war that had ended twenty years ago.

Tsarina Irina Feodorovna, as Irene was now known, introduced her uncle Kaiser Wilhelm to his distant cousin and Emperor and Autocrat of all the Russias Tsar Alexander III (the new Tsar and his wife already had two sons and three daughters). This meeting with Wilhelm II, who had attended the coronation ceremony, wasn’t just an informal encounter between distant royal relatives though. Russia and Germany finally agreed to an alliance. In the Pact of Reval established in 1933, Germany and Russia agreed to come to each other’s aid if either signatory was attacked by a third party.

Italy had fought alongside the Entente in the Great War too, but hadn’t formally joined it (in fact, Italy had been part of the Central Powers until 1914). The Italian government wasn’t a fan of Russian expansion into the Eastern Mediterranean per se, but factored into its course that an Anglo-French-Italian alliance would be outmatched by a Russo-German one. Germany had the world’s best army and Russia had the world’s largest army. Britain had a big fleet going for it, but not a large army: in a hypothetical war it’d be up to France and Italy to hold off the Russians and Germans until the British had mobilized the potential of the Empire. Italian military leaders believed that without a second front and probably even Russian assistance, Germany could defeat France in eight weeks.

Italy’s geopolitical positioning in the alliance systems was based on this logic, which made their choice predictable: in 1935 they decided to cut their losses and side with Russia and Germany, creating a new Triple Alliance. In a victorious war, Italy could expand its colonial empire at the expense of France and Britain, connecting Libya to their holdings on the Horn of Africa (Italian East Africa, which now also included Ethiopia after a second try at conquering it in 1935). Other things on their wish list included taking back Nice and Savoy from France, annexing Corsica, taking Malta from Britain and taking control of the Suez Canal in British-controlled Egypt.

Japan had also reconsidered its alliance to Britain as it seemed to have outlived its usefulness. The Anglo-Japanese Alliance had been created to curb Russia’s expansionism and challenging Russian power in China together. In the Great War, however, Russia emerged as a victory in 1916 with Japan ironically fighting on the same side to take Germany’s possessions in Asia and the Pacific Ocean. After that, Russia had reasserted itself by supporting the restoration of the Qing and choosing one of the most powerful warlord cliques in China as their proxy, the Zhili clique, and strengthening it further by supplying it with modern weapons. Moreover, Russia had proceeded to annex an enormous swath of Chinese territory, extending its influence deep into China. One thing led to another and the de facto partition of China was formally enshrined during the St. Petersburg Conference, leaving two Chinese rump states: a monarchist one in the north and a republican one in the south.

Besides that, Russia was also growing stronger as it rapidly industrialized in the 1920s and 30s: by the mid-30s it became clear to Japanese generals that fighting Russia over Manchuria would result in defeat. Russia in 1934 was a very different beast than Russia in 1904. Russia’s railway network had grown to 145.000 km by then (compared to 115.000 km in 1925, 85.000 km in 1917 and only 64.000 km in 1905). Electricity production was 40 billion kWh compared to only 2.9 billion in 1917. Production numbers of steel, coal and oil had similar growth over the last thirty years, with some of them quadrupling in the two decades since the Great War. Russia could simply produce more of everything and with the Trans-Siberian Railway now complete and complemented by the Baikal-Amur Main Line, Russia could now also effectively support a huge army in the Orient.

With expansionist opportunities in China blocked by a strong Russia in the north, Japan’s ambition of creating a large colonial empire of its own had to focus elsewhere: Tokyo’s imperialist gaze shifted south and Japan finally dissolved its alliance with Britain in 1935. Southeast Asia was under the control of Great Britain, France and the Netherlands. Operating under the logic “if you can’t beat them, join them” Japan signed onto the Pact of Reval in 1937, which thereby became a Quadruple Alliance. It was a formidable force. In the event of war Great Britain and France would be facing Russia, Germany, Japan and Italy. Russia by itself could mobilize an army of 15 million men to conquer Eurasia with and the world’s largest air force, while the combined naval power of Germany and Japan could pose a threat to the Royal Navy’s dominance. Britannia might not rule the waves for much longer and France might well have to submit to a junior partner status in Europe. Leaders in London and France had nightmares.

Britain and France quickly expanded the Entente by recruiting the Ottoman Empire, convincing it to formally join. Kemal Pasha and Sultan Abdulmejid II didn’t need much convincing as Russia was becoming more aggressive he and joined what now became the Triple Entente. The Russians had begun organizing annual naval exercises in the Black Sea, dangerously close to the Turkish coast, and assisted Iran’s Shah Reza Pahlavi in modernizing and expanding his army by sending trainers and providing modern equipment. Secondly, Russia had also begun a naval expansion program to replace the obsolete dreadnoughts of the 1910s. In 1933 they began building six 52.000 tonne Imperator Aleksandr II-class fast battleships with nine 42 cm (16.5 inch) guns supplied Germany (as Russia couldn’t build guns larger than 38 cm/15 inches at the time). Three of these would serve in the Baltic Fleet and the other three in the Black Sea, where Russia was now the dominant naval power. They were complemented by six Suvorov-class battlecruisers: 43.000 tonnes and nine 38 cm (15 inch) guns.

The Sublime Porte could use some assistance. Russia could threaten the Ottoman Empire by sea from the north and overland from the Caucasus and from Iran. To bolster it, British shipyards built four battleships for the Ottoman Navy that could match their Russian opponents. Meanwhile, France sent trainers to improve the Ottoman Army’s organization, strategies, tactics and military discipline and also gave it modern equipment. A new Kemalist modernization program to significantly improve the country’s infrastructure, education system and healthcare system funded with oil money, received additional financing from Paris and London.

Realizing Britain’s manpower disadvantage, Prime Minister Baldwin introduced a controversial peacetime conscription act in the UK to create a major standing army, but realized more was needed and turned to India. British India had 400 million inhabitants and was therefore an enormous manpower pool. The 1937 Indian National Service Act demanded twelve months of military service for men upon reaching the age of 18, with exceptions limited to those with religious objections (such as Jains and Buddhist monks). The Colonial Office’s naïve optimism that this measure would be accepted in India was dashed as the measure proved to be an enormous overreach. Gandhi was able to unite Hindus and Muslims alike and organize a paralyzing strike and large peaceful protests such as sit-ins, civil disobedience and anti-government propaganda. Mutinies took place among British Indian Army units.

The 1937 Indian Crisis escalated and threatened to turn into a revolt even worse than the Indian Rebellion of 1857. There were reports of attacks on white people, rapes and arson of Christian sites of worship in India (similar to the Boxer Rebellion in China so many years ago) and Indian troops taking control. Great Britain could respond in two ways: either resort to bloody repression or reach a compromise with the Indian National Congress, the first nationalist movement that had emerged in the British Empire and the principal leader of India’s independence movement. Britain flinched despite certain Tory leaders advocating intervention, such as Foreign Secretary Winston Churchill who said: “We need to send a message by arresting and hanging that half naked fakir [Gandhi] for treason and whip those barbarian rebels back in line, lest we risk dissolution of the British Empire. The loss of India would be the sunset of the Empire, disaffecting countless loyal Indians over there even more so than Britons at home as they will fall to either the Russian or the Japanese jackboot.”

Things went differently as London decided to acquiesce to the demands of the Indian National Congress by issuing the 1938 Government of India Act, large parts of which were written by Congress politicians such as Nehru and Patel. India became the first non-white Dominion within the British Empire, i.e. a self-governing nation equal to Britain and in no way subordinate to it in foreign or domestic affairs (just like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Ireland before it). King Edward VIII maintained his formal title “Emperor of India” and remained the ceremonial head of state, represented by a Viceroy appointed by Britain. In return India accepted conscription and began forming a formidable military: in 1938 roughly 3.2 million young men reached the age of 18 and were called up for military service. To many this was a blessing in disguise: plenty of them were illiterate and had to be educated up to elementary school levels before even being allowed to start basic training!

If all else failed, Britain’s final hope rested on “the New World coming to the aid of the Old” as Foreign Secretary Churchill so eloquently put it, referring to the United States. During the McAdoo Administration (1925-1933) the US maintained its isolationist course, only springing into action when the Monroe Doctrine required it by intervening in some brushfire wars in the Caribbean. Democratic candidate Roosevelt saw a greater role for the US in global politics, but he wasn’t elected in 1932: in 1931 a serious economic depression had begun and the interventionist policies to mitigate the effects hadn’t shown their effects yet.

The trigger was a recession in Europe caused by speculation on the steel market resulting from the government placing such large orders for steel for its huge naval construction program. Germany’s economy had bounced back from the Great War by 1919 despite the war reparations it owed France and Belgium. The 1927 Naval Law triggered a rise in steel prices and the value of the stock of Krupp and Thyssen among others soared, resulting in a speculative bubble as people invested their life savings into stock, re-mortgaged their house to buy stock or even took on loans to buy stock. When the bubble burst, people lost all their money and money supply contracted because the banks were never going to get their money back. To prevent a collapse of a number of major German banks, the German government bailed them out and saved Krupp and Thyssen through nationalization. They also printed money to increase the money supply again, causing inflation. The damage had been done. The recession affected the European economy, affecting the global economy in turn.

Republican candidate Herbert Hoover – who’d helped organize relief for Europe after the war ended in 1916 – was the victor. After being elected Senator for his home state of Iowa in 1926, he’d worked his way up the Republican Party and didn’t choose re-election after his six year term was over, instead running for the White House. His economic policies, however, made it worse: inflation of the US dollar reached 15%, resulting in a loss of purchasing power, which in turn led to lower profits, investments being postponed and people getting laid off, worsening the vicious circle as businesses now turned even less of a profit. To combat this inflation, Hoover set the interest rate as high as 20% on the advice of the Federal Reserve. This reduced inflation to just 3% in two years’ time, but led to a spike in unemployment as high as 21%, deeply affection the construction, farming and industrial sectors.

When Roosevelt tried again and won in 1936, his country was still in the throes of depression and has since then been championed who pulled the country out of this economic crisis: Roosevelt spearheaded unprecedented federal legislation and issued a profusion of executive orders that instituted the New Deal – a variety of programs designed to produce relief, recovery, and reform. Critics have since pointed the questionable constitutionality of some of these reforms and have also questioned whether it was due to these policies or due to natural economic cycles that the crisis ended. Roosevelt supporters of course defend this economic interventionism, while those assuming the middle ground argue Roosevelt’s New Deal significantly accelerated a slow economic recovery. Regardless of who was right, the US was too wrapped up in its domestic issues to consider a role on the world stage.

In a time that economic crisis made governments unpopular, some of those governments considered foreign adventurism to regain said popularity. It looked Great Britain and France were going to need American help, but whether they’d get it was up in the air. If a war did erupt, Britain and France seemed unlikely to win. Russia, Germany, Japan and Italy were all aware of this and the only two things needed for another European war were a good old-fashioned Balkan crisis and one side’s unwillingness to resolve it with words instead of weapons.
 
Nice chapter, the Quadruple Alliance of Russia/Germany/Italy/Japan is quite powerful and will be a good match against the British/French Alliance. If ATL WW2 breaks out, I think the USA will stay out of it, Japan can get it's oil and supplies from Russia, no need to do anything stupid like attacking the USA. The USA will be too involved domestically to do any foreign adventures. Keep up the good work.
 
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Could we possibly get a chapter from South America? Could the Entente maybe get Brazil on their side, act as a buffer against American influence?
 
Maybe WW2 will break out with Persia and the Ottomans going to war and it pulls in their allies? A border dispute turns into a major issue?
 
I wonder how Austria-Hungary will react to WWII.
Probably a neutral (since it doesn't have any territory conflict with Italy, or expansion ambitions, and Russian panslavism seems more targeted at the Ottomans -for now).

Neutral but Alliance-leaning (with Russia, Germany and Italy as neighbors and major trade partners, it's a matter of survival to be friendly with them).

And secretly hoping that Russia loses (because once the OE is carved up, the only remaining target for Russian expansion would be Czechia and Slovakia ie. AH remaining Slavic lands).

Meanwhile, Serbia will likely follow Russia (out of gratefulness for WWI gains).
Bulgaria will want Ottoman Rumelia back. The "Balkan incident" that sparks WWII will probably be there.
Greece will want the Enosis.
Romania, encircled with Alliance-aligned countries, will likely follow along (maybe not a large military contribution but allowing Russian armies to pass).
 
Nice chapter, the Quadruple Alliance of Russia/Germany/Italy/Japan is quite powerful and will be a good match against the British/French Alliance. If ATL WW2 breaks out, I think the USA will stay out of it, Japan can get it's oil and supplies from Russia, no need to do anything stupid like attacking the USA. The USA will be to involved domestically to do any foreign adventures. Keep up the good work.
yes, and after the war, if they were able to get southeast Asia more specifically Indonesia and Malaysia they would have their own massive oil field
 

El_Fodedor

Banned
Could we possibly get a chapter from South America? Could the Entente maybe get Brazil on their side, act as a buffer against American influence?
It would be a bad choice. Why would they try to antagonize the US when in fact they need to court it? With the way the wind is blowing they should be knelling before the Department of State like clients begging for help.
 
It would be a bad choice. Why would they try to antagonize the US when in fact they need to court it? With the way the wind is blowing they should be knelling before the Department of State like clients begging for help.
they have India in their side and if that country was able to industrial, it would became a great countermeasure against Russia and Germany
 
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