沒有國民黨就沒有中國, Without the Kuomintang there would be no China, A Republic of China Story

Are we going to see the same level of economic growth (10 percent average over multiple years) as OTL China? If we see something like it at an earlier date, then I would not be surprised to see China's economy overtake America's much earlier. I'd expect China ITTL to become a fully fledged superpower by the new millennium, if not sooner.
 
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Are we going to see the same level of economic growth (10 percent average over multiple years) as OTL China? If we see something like it at an earlier date, then I would not be surprised to see China's economy overtake America's much earlier. I'd expect China ITTL to become a fully fledged superpower by the new millennium.
I’d be skeptical of that. A more established China probably doesn’t suffer the economic calamities and mass opening of markets that caused the OTL boom. There’d be more complex political and economic constituencies to mollify and probably some kind of protectionist current.

That said, a China that’s much richer and stable starting in the early 1970s when containerized shipping took off probably still sees 6-8% growth for some time (if it can avoid Indianizing it’s economy with something like the License Raj) and would still be way ahead of OTL by the turn of the millennium (when China had basically an Italy-sized economy)
 
Are we going to see the same level of economic growth (10 percent average over multiple years) as OTL China? If we see something like it at an earlier date, then I would not be surprised to see China's economy overtake America's much earlier. I'd expect China ITTL to become a fully fledged superpower by the new millennium, if not sooner.
I’d be skeptical of that. A more established China probably doesn’t suffer the economic calamities and mass opening of markets that caused the OTL boom. There’d be more complex political and economic constituencies to mollify and probably some kind of protectionist current.

That said, a China that’s much richer and stable starting in the early 1970s when containerized shipping took off probably still sees 6-8% growth for some time (if it can avoid Indianizing it’s economy with something like the License Raj) and would still be way ahead of OTL by the turn of the millennium (when China had basically an Italy-sized economy)
China becoming an economic powerhouse is something that is likely but not inevitable. China's economy is growing slowly and it probably won't see years of 10% annual growth.
So I take it that Arbenz is inspired by the ROC?
Yes.
Will Arbenz be still be removed? Because he upset the Banana Lords?
He is not removed as America is less interventionist ITTL.
Was Song Ching-Ling still alive?
She's still alive.
 
Many owed their loyalty to the local warlord who were responsible for their positions in government.
ISTM that by 1959, the term "warlord" would be obsolete: the national government of the RoC would have absorbed the regional "private armies", and it would become effectively illegal for a regional figure to muster troops, buy arms, have a command structure outside the RoC armed forces.
Presidential Election of 1960
Votes
Chiang Kai-shek (KMT-Zhejiang)2,059 (67.6%)
Li Zongren (KMT-Guangxi)821 (27.0%)
Lei Chen (I-Zhejiang)65 (2.1%)

Vice Presidential Election of 1960
Votes
Sun Fo (KMT-Guangdong)1,906 (62.6%)
He Siyuan (KMT-Hebei)690 (22.7%)
Jian Yiqiao (CDSP-Hubei)245 (8.0%)
Li Zhonghuang (KMT-Yunnan)132 (4.3%)
Liang Shuming (I-Hebei)72 (2.4%)
Rather lopsided, and not exactly fair - but still a lot closer to a true contested election than anything that ever happened in a Communist country. For one thing, about a third of the electors aren't afraid to vote against The Machine.
 
ISTM that by 1959, the term "warlord" would be obsolete: the national government of the RoC would have absorbed the regional "private armies", and it would become effectively illegal for a regional figure to muster troops, buy arms, have a command structure outside the RoC armed forces.

Rather lopsided, and not exactly fair - but still a lot closer to a true contested election than anything that ever happened in a Communist country. For one thing, about a third of the electors aren't afraid to vote against The Machine.
It's true that the warlords aren't as powerful as they once were, or able to really act independently of the Chinese government. They are integrated within the power structure of the ROC now. At this point they are generals who also run their provinces. Events in the first half of the 1960s are going to further marginalize them.
 
It's true that the warlords aren't as powerful as they once were, or able to really act independently of the Chinese government. They are integrated within the power structure of the ROC now. At this point they are generals who also run their provinces. Events in the first half of the 1960s are going to further marginalize them.
They’re probably more like the PRI’s “little Caudillos” at this point no?
 
二十七, Changes in Government
After the 1960 Chinese Presidential Election, Premier Weng Wenhao stepped down from his post. He would leave politics and go back into business. He had served as Premier for twelve years, an unusually long amount of time for that position. Chiang Kai-shek thanked him for his many years of loyalty and service in government. For Weng’s replacement, the CC Clique was ruled out as they already had a great deal of influence in the government. Weng suggested Finance Minister Yen Chia-kan as the next premier, but Chiang went with Commander of the Navy Chen Cheng instead. The selection of Chen Cheng was interpreted by some as a signal that more democratic reform was coming. Chiang himself hinted at the possibility of reform, but gave no specifics.

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(Chen Cheng)

In May 1960 Chiang Kai-shek attended the funeral of Yan Xishan. The general was 76 years old and was a prominent figure in the early Republic of China. Without Yan’s support China might not have survived. Chiang Kai-shek was only a few years younger than him. The government of China was dominated by people old enough to remember the Qing Dynasty, many of whom participated in the revolution to overthrow it. Chiang Kai-shek was born in 1887, Vice President Sun Fo and Foreign Minister Wang Shijie in 1891, Premier Chen Cheng in 1897, Defense Minister He Yinqin as well as Zhang Qun in 1889, and Gu Zhutong was born in 1893. The President of the Control Yuan, Yu Youren, was born in 1879. Even though most these men would live unusually long lives, the Kuomintang would be looking for younger leaders during the 1960s.

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(Yan Xishan, 1883-1960)

While Chiang Kai-shek won over two thirds of the vote in the presidential election, he had some concerns. His biggest concern was his weakness in Northern China. In 1960 he would replace Vice Premier Wang Yun-wu with Guan Jiyu. Guan Jiyu was from Liaoning Province in the Northeast, an area of the country where Chiang was particularly unpopular. More Mongolians and Manchus were recruited into the Kuomintang as well. Another Northerner would receive a promotion when Ma Jizhuang was made commander of the Navy. He was from Hebei, which was home to many powerful opponents of Chiang Kai-shek. Lien Chen-tung, father of the much more famous Len Chan, was made Minister of the Interior. Lien was born in Taiwan but married into a wealthy Shenyang family. He would be tasked with overseeing the completion of the land reform campaign.

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(Ma Jizhuang)
 
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It's a shame that Taft died so early, I'd have liked to see the Cold War headed off more decisively. But the moratorium on nuclear weapons making is at least a good precedent, and hopefully that results in MAD being only a theory.

Even if nuclear weapons are going to proliferate and multiply, that apocalyptic levels of the OTL arms race could be avoided with the proper international cooperation.
 
二十八, Korea
After the surrender of Japan, Korea was divided into two parts. North of the 38th Parallel was the Communist North Korea, backed by the Soviet Union. South of the 38th Parallel was the capitalist South Korea, backed by the United States. Both countries were dictatorships. The North was ruled by Kim Il-sung and the South was ruled by Syngman Rhee. Both countries claimed to be the sole legitimate government of a unified Korea. Because of this, neither country was allowed into the United Nations. The governments of both countries sought the destruction of the other, and they would work to accomplish that goal. However, full scale war, which seemed inevitable to many observers, did not occur.

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(Left: Kim Il-sung, Right: Syngman Rhee)

Of the two Koreas, North Korea was the stronger one. North Korea could have defeated South Korea in a war, provided that there was no foreign intervention. There were leftist rebellions in South Korea that were often supported by the North. South Korea was able to put down these rebellions, but they proved to be a major thorn in their side throughout the 40s and 50s. There was also a series of border skirmishes between the two sides during this time. South Korea tried to subvert North Korea, but had much less success. North Korea also supported Communist revolutionaries among China’s ethnic Korean population and was a place where Chinese Communists retreated operated from. In 1952, with the Chinese Civil War wrapping up, China secured its border with North Korea, preventing North Korean intervention in China.

China promised to intervene if North Korea invaded the South. Likewise, the Soviet Union promised to protect North Korea. China continued to support the Korean Independence Party as a vehicle to advance their interests in South Korea. America supported the ruling Liberal Party. In the early years of South Korea there was a debate as to whether Korea should follow the example of the United States or China. Syngman Rhee was an authoritarian and would not allow for free elections. Challenging the Liberal Party at the ballot in Korea was as futile as challenging the Kuomintang at the ballot in China. This was made increasingly clear as Rhee suppressed dissent. Discontent with his rule was widespread, and some began to secretly discuss taking action against the regime.

In 1957, opponents of the Rhee Regime struck. 37-year-old General Paik Sun-yup led a group of officers in a coup against the government. Syngman Rhee was forced to resign. Paik Sun-yup served as interim president but promised free elections in 1958. He kept to his word, except that all Communist or pro-North parties were banned from participating. Several parties competed in the election. The Center-right Democratic Party won a plurality and became the ruling party. Cho Pyong-ok became president and Chang Myon became Vice President. Kim Gu’s Korean Independence Party and Cho Bong-am’s Progressive Party also won many seats in the legislature. South Korea seemed to be on the road to becoming a stable democracy. Whether this would continue remained to be seen, however.

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(Left: Cho Pyong-ok, Rght: Paik Sun-yup)
 
Without the Korean War, I wonder if there will be a strong Japanese economic recovery. This and the diminished threat of communism in Asia might also affect whether the LDP can remain Japan's de facto single ruling party the way it does IOTL. We could see a Japan that never becomes an economic superpower and has a more left-wing bent (which sounds kind of like our reality's South Korea, come to think of it).
 
Without the Korean War, I wonder if there will be a strong Japanese economic recovery. This and the diminished threat of communism in Asia might also affect whether the LDP can remain Japan's de facto single ruling party the way it does IOTL. We could see a Japan that never becomes an economic superpower and has a more left-wing bent (which sounds kind of like our reality's South Korea, come to think of it).
South Korea has a left-wing bent…?
 
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