"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL
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New Statesman Article Social Democratic Leader Runners and Riders
Who will succeed Andy Burnham as SDP leader?
By Julia Rampen
It is all but confirmed Andy Burnham will announce his resignation as SDP leader in the next few days, and already the vultures are circling.
Douglas Alexander, seen in prime position for the leadership, has already ruled himself out. As have Ed Balls, Alastair Darling and Margaret Hodge.
So who will take over? And can they prevent the Social Democrats from collapsing further into irrelevance?
Scottish Social Democrats Leader Yvette Cooper
Last time around being trapped in St Andrew's House was seen as a handicap for Cooper, now it might have been a blessing. Spending time away from Westminster and the Shadow Cabinet has left Cooper as one of the few senior Social Democrats untainted by the Burnham years. Her chest-thumping speeches against RISE have also gone viral among party loyalists.
Shadow Home Secretary Tim Farron
Like marmite, Farron is either loved or loathed by SDP members. His supporters point to his robust defence of civil liberties in the face of National's growing authoritarianism, whilst his detractors call out his backwards views on abortion and gay marriage. A rare politician able to laugh at himself, his down-to-earth nature has endeared him to Parliamentary colleagues, and he remains one of the few SDP MPs representing a rural province.
Shadow Health Secretary Lynne Featherstone
Featherstone is another grassroots darling, having spent most of her time as Shadow Health Secretary promoting the plight of LGBT patients in the NHS. She has an untarnished voting record and is seen as the "conscious" of the party. Despite private doubts she remained loyal to Andy Burnham right until the bitter end, one of the few SDP MPs willing to go on TV to defend him.
Shadow Industry Secretary Sadiq Khan
Apparently Burnham's preferred successor, Khan talks a good game -and his reputation will always be secured thanks to his role in stopping the 2009 coup. However several insiders feel like he's running out of road, he has very little real policy victories from his time as Shadow Industry Secretary and some blame him for losing several leading affiliated unions to the People's Party.
Shadow Public Administrations Secretary Frances O'Grady
A union woman through and through, Grady would much rather be Industry Sec, still shes made the best of the job she's got. She's walked a delicate balance between supporting more devolution to the provinces without upsetting the centralists in her own party. Her weakness as a platform speaker holds her back, she's much more confident in backroom deals or in one-to-one interviews.
Greater Manchester President Angela Rayner
One of the SDP's only surviving provincial leaders after regional election wipe-outs, Rayner's coalition with the People's Party and Socialist Alternative in GM provides a model for the party nationally. Rayner enjoys a close relationship with Ribeiro-Addy having served on OutRage's Steering Group before it was absorbed into the People's Party.
Shadow Development Secretary Rachel Reeves
Burnham's loudest internal critic, Reeves has threatened to resign more times than I can count. Now she is the likely front-runner to lead the party, she has already received the backing of heavyweights like Douglas Alexander, David Miliband and even Alan Johnson himself. Having spent the last few months loudly announcing what she's against - she'll need to show the membership what she believes in.
Shadow Foreign Secretary Polly Toynbee
If Alan Johnson is the Social Democratic godfather than Toynbee is it's godmother, she's been on the frontbench of the party since the beginning steering and advising every leader along the way. Last time she went for the crown and came up short. Allies say she isn't interested in leadership, hoping to step down in 2020 - but if she went for it she'd have a formidable alliance behind her.
Deputy Leader Chuka Umunna
Chuka was elected to be the young hip-face of the Social Democrats - and is the only BME voice on this list. After the July election he led the delegation to Alan Sugar and seemingly did a good job locking in the SDP/Unity pact. However since the snap election Chuka has hoped on the Burnham hate train, loudly calling for the party to "get real". However he's only been an MP for one term, he'll have to prove he's more than a pretty face and expensive suit.
West Midlands President Tom Watson
Another survivor from provincial government, rumours have been swirling of Watson as a unity (no not that one!) figure. Generally respected on all sides of the party with impeccable ties to the unions and clean hands from the last few elections Watson would be an ideal candidate for a fresh start. But with his reputation as a ruthless party fixer, Watson may prefer to be behind the throne, rather than on it.
By Julia Rampen
It is all but confirmed Andy Burnham will announce his resignation as SDP leader in the next few days, and already the vultures are circling.
Douglas Alexander, seen in prime position for the leadership, has already ruled himself out. As have Ed Balls, Alastair Darling and Margaret Hodge.
So who will take over? And can they prevent the Social Democrats from collapsing further into irrelevance?
Scottish Social Democrats Leader Yvette Cooper
Last time around being trapped in St Andrew's House was seen as a handicap for Cooper, now it might have been a blessing. Spending time away from Westminster and the Shadow Cabinet has left Cooper as one of the few senior Social Democrats untainted by the Burnham years. Her chest-thumping speeches against RISE have also gone viral among party loyalists.
Shadow Home Secretary Tim Farron
Like marmite, Farron is either loved or loathed by SDP members. His supporters point to his robust defence of civil liberties in the face of National's growing authoritarianism, whilst his detractors call out his backwards views on abortion and gay marriage. A rare politician able to laugh at himself, his down-to-earth nature has endeared him to Parliamentary colleagues, and he remains one of the few SDP MPs representing a rural province.
Shadow Health Secretary Lynne Featherstone
Featherstone is another grassroots darling, having spent most of her time as Shadow Health Secretary promoting the plight of LGBT patients in the NHS. She has an untarnished voting record and is seen as the "conscious" of the party. Despite private doubts she remained loyal to Andy Burnham right until the bitter end, one of the few SDP MPs willing to go on TV to defend him.
Shadow Industry Secretary Sadiq Khan
Apparently Burnham's preferred successor, Khan talks a good game -and his reputation will always be secured thanks to his role in stopping the 2009 coup. However several insiders feel like he's running out of road, he has very little real policy victories from his time as Shadow Industry Secretary and some blame him for losing several leading affiliated unions to the People's Party.
Shadow Public Administrations Secretary Frances O'Grady
A union woman through and through, Grady would much rather be Industry Sec, still shes made the best of the job she's got. She's walked a delicate balance between supporting more devolution to the provinces without upsetting the centralists in her own party. Her weakness as a platform speaker holds her back, she's much more confident in backroom deals or in one-to-one interviews.
Greater Manchester President Angela Rayner
One of the SDP's only surviving provincial leaders after regional election wipe-outs, Rayner's coalition with the People's Party and Socialist Alternative in GM provides a model for the party nationally. Rayner enjoys a close relationship with Ribeiro-Addy having served on OutRage's Steering Group before it was absorbed into the People's Party.
Shadow Development Secretary Rachel Reeves
Burnham's loudest internal critic, Reeves has threatened to resign more times than I can count. Now she is the likely front-runner to lead the party, she has already received the backing of heavyweights like Douglas Alexander, David Miliband and even Alan Johnson himself. Having spent the last few months loudly announcing what she's against - she'll need to show the membership what she believes in.
Shadow Foreign Secretary Polly Toynbee
If Alan Johnson is the Social Democratic godfather than Toynbee is it's godmother, she's been on the frontbench of the party since the beginning steering and advising every leader along the way. Last time she went for the crown and came up short. Allies say she isn't interested in leadership, hoping to step down in 2020 - but if she went for it she'd have a formidable alliance behind her.
Deputy Leader Chuka Umunna
Chuka was elected to be the young hip-face of the Social Democrats - and is the only BME voice on this list. After the July election he led the delegation to Alan Sugar and seemingly did a good job locking in the SDP/Unity pact. However since the snap election Chuka has hoped on the Burnham hate train, loudly calling for the party to "get real". However he's only been an MP for one term, he'll have to prove he's more than a pretty face and expensive suit.
West Midlands President Tom Watson
Another survivor from provincial government, rumours have been swirling of Watson as a unity (no not that one!) figure. Generally respected on all sides of the party with impeccable ties to the unions and clean hands from the last few elections Watson would be an ideal candidate for a fresh start. But with his reputation as a ruthless party fixer, Watson may prefer to be behind the throne, rather than on it.
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By this point are there any junta era officials/politicians/military personnel/ police officers/ect still left in post or has the passage of time (or quiet purges) cleared them out?
How are junta era military veterans and especially veterans of the coup/early Mountbatten era and internal military repression operations viewed by society?
Any unrepentant die hard Mountbattenites left anywhere in Britain longing for the good old days?
How are junta era military veterans and especially veterans of the coup/early Mountbatten era and internal military repression operations viewed by society?
Any unrepentant die hard Mountbattenites left anywhere in Britain longing for the good old days?
Yes very silly error on my part, I copied an IRL New Statesman article to try and get the tone right but forgot to change the headline!
Capital J Junta politicians have mostly died out, with Thatcher being the last person to serve in Mountbatten's cabinet dying off, there are some senior people in National who were around for the Hill-Norton years such as Nicholas Soames but they were always on the reformist end of things. The military slowly but surely has forcefully retired Mountbattenite officers after the 2009 coup but there's still one or two old boys hanging around. The Civil Service and Police are pretty much the same, mostly cleared out at the top but with a sizeable minority of Mountbattenites under the radar. The largest real vestige of Juntaism is the Judiciary with people like Jonathan Sumption, Geoffrey Cox and Peter Jewell on the Supreme Court.
In terms of Junta veterans it entirely depends on your politics, for those on the left they are traitors and neo-fascists, for those on the right they were misguided patriotic heroes doing what they thought was best. Treatment of Mountbattenite veterans, especially those accused of war crimes have become a bit of a political football/"culture war issue" not too dissimilar to the OTL debate on prosecuting British soldiers for crimes during the Troubles.
The Centrists, the only openly Mountbattenite party got just over 2% of the vote in the 2019 elections and one MP, however there is a Mountbattenite minority within National. Polling shows around 36% of Brits have a neutral to positive view of Mountbatten, rising to just under 50% for National voters.
- Jonathan Sumption (President)
- Geoffrey Cox (Vice-President)
- Jeff Blackett
- Suella Braverman
- Brenda Hale
- Patrick Hodge
- John James
- Peter Jewell
- Brian Kerr
- Alan Large
- Tim Page
- Robert Reed
- Vivienne Robinson
- Peter Smith
- Nicholas Wilson
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2017 SDP Leadership Election, Part 1
The Social Democrat's support base had been completely hollowed out
“The SDP has struggled to renew itself within a political environment which favours populist alternatives. The events of recent days have not proved helpful in reviving the SDP's fortunes. The SDP’s current travails have reinforced the impression that the UPA might yet be capable of squeezing the SDP when Britain next goes to the polls. Such a prospect helps to explain why Burnham’s opponents within the party felt compelled to move against him. Leaderless, and with its image and credibility reaching a nadir, the SDP remains divided. Rank-and-file members largely backed Burnham’s stance and resented the manner in which he was "betrayed". The truth is that the party’s problems go well beyond the question of who will lead the party. Both Hague and Ribeiro must be rubbing their hands.” - The SDP in Crisis, Lecture by Paul Kennedy, London School of Economics (2017)
Andy Burnham had finally ran out of road, after losing two elections and even the official opposition slot at PMQs his position was completely untenable. After a tumultuous meeting of the Common’s much reduced Social Democratic caucus Burnham confirmed to MPs and journalists alike his plan was to resign. Burnham had never been the party establishment’s first choice for leader, with many welcoming his departure, but the contradictions inherent to the SDP project were more visible than ever. There was no obvious successor to Burnham, no unifying figure
No one seemed keen to drink from the poisoned chalice, with senior Ministers like Polly Toynbee, Tim Farron and Margaret Hodge declining to run, some doomed backbench runs from figures like Luciana Berger, David Babbs and Sarah Champion all failed to receive any noticeable backing and quickly dropped out. Instead the party consolidated in two broad tendencies, the first were those loyal to Burnham, who supported keeping National at an arm's length and at least talking to the UPA. The other wanted absolutely no cooperation with the UPA and for the Social Democrats to chart a course back towards the Johnsonite centre of British politics.
The SDP's soft left had seen a bruising few months
Emerging as Burnham’s preferred successor was Sadiq Khan, a runner up from the previous election Khan had remained loyal to Burnham on economic issues, whilst charting a more pro-European and cosmopolitan attitude towards social issues - conveniently placing him in line with the median SDP member. Khan had the backing of Burnham’s remaining campaign infrastructure, including major affiliated unions like Amicus. On the moderate end of the party emerged Rachel Reeves. A former diplomat, Reeves wanted to see the party take a more aggressive line against the radical left and seperatist parties, she also had the backing of the party’s establishment - including Alan Johnson.
The timing of the leadership election was interesting, with the new National administration promising sweeping electoral reform - including open primaries for party leadership elections - it was likely to be the last SDP leadership election fought on the old conference delegate model. Most expected this to benefit Khan as he could rely on the block vote of the SDP’s remaining unions, as well as the support of more ideological party delegates. To counter this the Reeves aligned federal council also set the timetable for the election to be relatively short, at just five weeks - privately hoping the rawness of the party’s election wipe-out would push party delegates into Reeves’ camp.
“Analysts and party leaders argue that the biggest challenge facing the next SDP leader is likely to be internal. “If Rachel Reeves wins, she will have the support of the party apparatus, but she is a pretty unpopular candidate outside the SDP. She will struggle to win support from younger voters and urban voters,” said Peter Dorey, a professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Khan wins, you have the opposite problem. He is more attractive to voters but the party apparatus is very distant and critical. This could trigger a new civil war inside the SDP.” According to Prof Dorey, the party will struggle to win back voters from UPA under either candidate: “The loyalty to one or the other party is now very high. The left is divided into two symmetrical parts and their base is pretty consolidated,” he said.” - Rachel Reeves to run for SDP Leadership, Tobias Buck, Financial Times (2017)
Reeves' campaign, dubbed "shock and awe" hoped to steamroll the opposition before they could get organised
Reeves was seen as a strong front-runner in the early days of the campaign, despite her relatively low profile. In a campaign launch in Leeds Reeves was joined by all four SDP former leaders and deputy leaders (Johnson, Miliband, Boycott and Umunna) as well as leading Shadow Cabinet Members like Douglas Alexander, Polly Toynbee and Ed Balls. Reeves was also endorsed by sixteen former SDP ministers and seven of the eight remaining SDP Provincial Presidents. Reeves focused her campaign around her electability, accusing Khan of “not serious about winning”, as well as her appeal to party heartlands as a West Yorkshire MP.
The leadership election quickly became a battle along geographic lines, whilst nearly a quarter of SDP members resided in London alone, politically the party had been devastated as the UPA now held all four London provinces. In terms of political strength most of the party’s MPs got their voters from suburban neighbourhoods like Bury, or Dagenham and smaller cities like Coventry, Bedford and Warwick. With the UPA ruling the inner city and National dominating the countryside, the Social Democrats had little in the way of true strongholds where it could rebuild its strength. These geographic divisions were also replicated in the political theatre, with bookies giving a 3/1 odds the party would split after the leadership election.
Whilst the relationship between the two candidates was relatively cordial, their backers became increasingly venomous in their clashes. Andy Burnham said a Reeves Leadership would place the SDP “under National’s boot”, whilst Alan Johnson had allegedly told one Khan aligned MP to “fuck off and join the People’s Party”. Reeves hoped to wrap her campaign around Alan Johnson, still a folk hero to many within the party and the broader centre left, she whole-heatedly defended the Johnson administration in her campaign, Khan took a more critical line - pointing towards Johnson’s failure to radically reform the military, court and general authoritarianism of the British state, as well as his support for austerity. With the leadership election descending into a debate around history, the Social Democrats continued to appear a party without a future, obsessed with it’s past.
“The SDP are going through a similar crisis to their centre-left brethren across Europe. The SDP's adherence to a united Britain means the polemic issue of self-determination has been damaging to the party in Scotland. The SDP came fifth in December in terms of Scottish seats. SDP lawmaker Stella Creasy said the party has suffered at the ballot box because of the lack of a defined position on regional self-determination. Some regional divisions of the party became “close to the nationalists,” she said. As the party struggles to define itself, another SDP MP, Matt Forde, recommends imitating the party’s comrades in Scandinavia. Social Democrats there focus on goals without getting hung up on the means and “analyse problems without much passion.” The Brits, “love the big debates,” said Forde.” - The SDP’s Scottish Factor, Charlie Cooper, Politico (2017)
The SDP would struggle to return to power without the votes of Scottish loyalists
2017 SDP Leadership Election, Part 2
A leaked pub conversation destroyed Reeves' campaign
“The Express had access to the sound recording of a rant Rachel Reeves gave to staffers during a pub visit after the December election. In it, Reeves, thinking that no one was recording it, goes on to say that "our adversary is the National Party, but our enemy is the People's Party." She confesses that he has to deal with "dickheads" in the parliamentary group and is in favour of "dissolving the Scottish Parliament". She affirms that the working class are "very right-wing." In a conversation yesterday with the Express Reeves apologised "to her colleagues and to the people I hurt". She considers that he should never have said those things but remembers that the SDP was then experiencing a moment of "tension". "When you're wrong, it's best to admit it," she added.” - Rachel Reeves calls for Scottish Parliament to be dissolved in leaked RANT, Bill McLoughlin, The Express (2017)
Whilst Reeves had been storming ahead in opinion polls, her campaign hit a rather large snag just four days before the party conference. In a secret recording leaked to the press Reeves gave an expletive laden rant about the political opponents both within and without the SDP. She called Sadiq Khan, Owen Jones and Patrick Harvie a “trio of jumped up midgets” going on to tell staffers she would abolish the Scottish Parliament if she could. However the main target of the rant was newly elected Amicus General Secretary Jennie Formby whom Reeves described as a “swivel eyed-loon” after Formby had threatened to affiliate to the People’s Party if Reeves was elected. Dozens of names were mentioned in the nearly ten minute recording including several of her own MPs.
Relations with Amicus were already badly strained
Reeves’ claim to be the unity candidate was shattered, whilst she apologised for the remarks, saying they were taken out of context at “informal staff drinks”. Many leading party officials including Formby called on Reeves to drop out of the race, which she refused. Threats of a split continued to grow as Khan accused Reeves of “destroying” work on both sides of the party to restore “respect and solidarity between party colleagues”. Marvin Rees, the Vice-Chair of Reeves’ leadership campaign, announced he would be switching his endorsement to Khan as several of Reeves’ major backers fell silent. Whilst some Reeves delegates suggested drafting in a last minute candidate, it was too late to build a fresh campaign, a late Christmas present for Mr Khan.
At a party conference in Manchester, Reeves’ team scrambled to recapture delegates abandoning them in droves but it was too late. Reeves’ outburst had disgusted party delegates from Maureen the retired Cornwall headteacher to Alan the Sunderland Shop the grassroots moved to Khan. In a huge upset Khan won over the conference by a nearly 100 delegate majority. It was an interesting pattern for the Social Democrats, for the second time in a row the previous runner up had gone on to win as party leader. Khan became the first Asian leader of a major British political party, which was an achievement in and of itself. But before Khan could give his victory speech all hell broke loose.
In an impromptu press conference outside the conference hall, Deputy Leader Chuka Umunna announced he would be defecting to Unity, he was joined by nine other SDP MPs including Lucy Powell, Gloria de Piero - as well as former Environment Secretary Alistair Campbell. Umunna told journalists that by electing Khan the Social Democrats had proved they were “no longer a party of government”, unlike the “serious, liberal, pro-European” Unity Party. Whilst no other defectors would follow over the course of the Conference, speculation swirled over who would follow Umunna to the exit door. The much anticipated Social Democrat split had finally happened.
O'Grady took over from Umunna as Deputy Leader
Sadiq Khan Frontbench Team
- Leader of the SDP - Sadiq Khan
- Deputy Leader of the SDP - Frances O’Grady
- Treasury Spokesperson - Polly Toynbee
- Foreign Spokesperson - Ed Balls
- Justice Spokesperson - Tim Farron
- Defence Spokesperson - Rachel Reeves
- Home Affairs Spokesperson - Lynne Featherstone
- Development Spokesperson - Hilary Benn
- Education Spokesperson - Emily Thornberry
- Industry Spokesperson - Keir Starmer
- Agriculture Spokesperson - Andrew Gwynne
- Public Administrations Spokesperson - Nick Brown
- Culture Spokesperson - Ian Lavery
- Health Spokesperson - Lisa Nandy
- Environment Spokesperson - Jess Philips
- Housing Spokesperson - Heidi Alexander
“This election was not without controversy and I am so proud that we Social Democrats have today chosen hope over fear and unity over division. I hope that we will never be offered such a stark choice again. Fear does not make us safer, it only makes us weaker and the politics of fear is not welcome in our party. I want to end by making a promise to the country, a promise I first made during my campaign for Parliament in 2005. I promise to always be a Prime Minister for everyone, to work hard to make life better for everyone regardless of your background. I will do everything in my power to make sure you get the opportunities that our incredible country gave to me. Thank you very much.” - Sadiq Khan’s Victory Speed (2017)
Khan hoped his Obama-esque story could rebuild the SDP
Looking forward to seeing you take this into the 2020s Powerab!
With the recent discussion about the role of Russian money in British politics, what's the role of Russian oligarchs in the UK atm? I imagine it's a lot less attractive place for them to be and settle.
Also, with no Brexit and further UK integration into the EU it looks the continent will spend less of the late 2010s dealing with Brexit and with more time to focus on something else.
With the recent discussion about the role of Russian money in British politics, what's the role of Russian oligarchs in the UK atm? I imagine it's a lot less attractive place for them to be and settle.
Also, with no Brexit and further UK integration into the EU it looks the continent will spend less of the late 2010s dealing with Brexit and with more time to focus on something else.
It's mixed, whilst Britain is a lot poorer, it has a stronger history of corruption and authoritarianism. Meaning London is lower risk but lower reward than OTL.
Yes with a much more europhilic UK, the EU is free to look more towards closer integration, although it still has issues with Orban in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland, not to mention the rising far right in "core states" like France, Germany and Italy.